Russian oil exports growing despite sanctions

Russian oil export revenues surged to US$17.2 billion in March 2024, driven by higher global oil prices and increased crude export volumes, according to the April ‘Russian Oil Tracker’ by KSE Institute.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price cap.

Russian seaborne oil exports rose by 4% in March, driven by a 12% increase in crude oil shipment to more than 400,000 barrels per day, while exports of oil products declined by 6%. Notably, India saw a 3% increase in Russian crude imports to 1,445,000 barrels per day, maintaining its position as the top importer of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Turkey has been meeting around two-thirds of its oil demand through Russian oil products imports, with total imports exceeding 800,000 barrels per day since November 2023.

However, only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet. It was responsible for exports of 2.8 million barrels per day of crude and 1.1 million barrel per day of oil products in March.

Specifically, 223 loaded non-IG-insured tankers left Russian ports, with 2 engaged in STS transfers in March 2024. With 85% of these tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened—a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay.

The US Treasury’s strategy of designating individual vessels effectively removes shadow tankers from regular commercial service. As of April 12, 2024, out of 41 sanctioned vessels, 37 were unloaded and not scheduled for further voyages, while 3 were completing their current voyages in line with the OFAC authorization.

One vessel provides coastal shuttle services violating OFAC’s sanctions but only within the Black Sea. On April 04, OFAC also sanctioned Oceanlink Maritime Dmcc and its 13 tankers for its ties with Iran but 7 of these 13 tankers also shipped Russian crude without IG P&I insurance.

Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. Nine of them were directly involved in loading Iranian oil in Iran or through STS operations in 2021-2023, as per Kpler.

Russia also continues to evade shadow fleet sanctions by transferring sanctioned tankers to new entities. For instance, when four UAE-registered shipping companies, sanctioned by the UK, passed tankers to other Emirati firms, they continued commercial operations under new management. Similarly, Stream Ship Management Fzco became the top shipper of Russian crude oil after acquiring tankers previously managed by Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzc, sanctioned by the OFAC.

UAE, Chinese and Greek ship managers have played a leading role in transporting Russian crude. In March 2024, eight of the top ten shippers of Russian crude were registered in the UAE or China.

As for Russian oil products exports, Greek companies dominated the top shippers, although Modern Gemi Isletmeciligi As (Turkey) and Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzco (UAE) led the list in March.

KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues to reach US$175 billion and US$152 billion in 2024 and 2025 under the base case with current oil price caps and stronger sanctions enforcement. However, if sanctions enforcement is weak, Russian oil revenues could increase, reaching US$206 billion in 2024 and US$195 billion in 2025.

The Q4 2023 data suggest that problems with price cap implementation and enforcement are much bigger than previously expected. To ensure that sanctions continue to constrain Russia’s ability to wage its war of aggression on Ukraine—and that their credibility is maintained—additional steps urgently need to be taken. Below, we outline three critical measures that can quickly and effectively address Russian effort to evade sanctions on its oil exports.

1. G7/EU countries should ensure that their authorities have sufficient proof of compliance with the price cap, including by: a) leveraging the involvement of G7/EU financial institutions in the Russian oil trade and their knowledge of key transaction details such as prices; b) requiring attestations to be provided by reputable entities defined via transparent criteria and subject to sanctions in the case of violations or their facilitation; and/or c) stepping-up of documentary evidence requirements for G7/EU service providers under the current system (including original sales contracts, etc.).

2. EU coastal states should leverage geographical “choke points” to limit Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” of tankers by requiring proper spill insurance for vessels’ passage through their territorial waters, including in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean. This would force Russia to rely once again on G7/EU services for a substantial share of its exports and also help address environmental risks that have emerged due to the increasing use of old and under-insured tankers. For this purpose, a system to allow for timely and efficient verification of insurance information should be established.

3. Price cap coalition countries should step up penalties on entities that violate the price cap. For G7/EU companies, this should include tougher monetary penalties and expanded lockout periods. For third-country actors, price cap coalition countries should impose “direct” sanctions (e.g., SDN listing in the United States or use of the European Union’s anti-circumvention tool established in the 11th package) and consider the application of extraterritorial (“secondary”) sanctions, leveraging the continued critical importance of its financial system for internationally operating businesses.

 

Indian spice manufacturers under scrutiny

Two of India's packaged spice manufacturers are under regulatory scrutiny in several countries after their products were allegedly found to contain carcinogenic elements, barely a year after cough syrups made in the South Asian nation were linked to the deaths of over 140 children in Africa.

Countries like Australia, New Zealand and the United States are weighing investigations into the packaged spices made by the companies after Hong Kong authorities raised a red flag over their quality.

This isn’t the first time that the two — among the largest companies in India — have faced these kinds of issues, with the US Food and Drug Administration ordering a recall of Everest spice mixes in 2023 and some MDH products in 2019, both due to salmonella contamination.

The Centre for Food Safety (CFS) in Hong Kong said in a statement on April 05, 2024 that it found ethylene oxide (ETO), a pesticide that can cause cancer if consumed in large amounts, in three types of packaged spices manufactured by MDH and one made by Everest. The products were taken off the shelves and recalled, the CFS said.

Taking its cue from the Hong Kong authorities, the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) a couple of weeks later recalled the Everest Fish Curry Masala product, saying in a statement that consumers who had purchased it were advised not to consume it.

The SFA also said, “As the implicated products in Hong Kong were imported into Singapore, the SFA has directed the importer to recall the products.” The agency clarified that although there is no immediate risk to consumption of food contaminated with low levels of ethylene oxide, long-term exposure may lead to health issues.

India’s Spice Board, a government agency that oversees spice exports, said that the limit for ETO varies between countries, from 0.02 milligram per kilogram of spices in places like the UK and Norway to 7 milligram per kilogram in Canada and the US.

Pesticides are widely used in agriculture in India, often leaving traces in food products. According to Indian government estimates, the cultivated area where chemical pesticide is used grew 33.4% from the fiscal year ending March 2019 to fiscal 2023, reaching 108,216 hectares. That was about seven times the area cultivated with biopesticides in 2023.

“We tend to look critically at the end product, but even more rigor is needed at the level of the ingredients,” said Devangshu Dutta, CEO at consultancy firm Third Eyesight, referring to the use of pesticides in cultivation. “Otherwise, we will end up kind of catching the product at the last point of control, which is not enough.”

Hong Kong and Singapore did not disclose the amount of ETO content in the recalled products. MDH and Everest had not responded to requests for comment by the time of publication.

Authorities elsewhere have also taken note of the allegations. “Food Standards Australia New Zealand is working with our international counterparts to understand the issue with federal, state and territory food enforcement agencies to determine if further action is required in Australia, e.g., a food recall,” the agency told Nikkei Asia in an email statement on Wednesday.

The regulatory scrutiny in the US, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore, raises questions over an export market worth about US$700 million, research firm Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in a report on Wednesday.

“Swift investigations and the publication of findings are essential to re-establish global trust in Indian spices,” GTRI said, adding that the “lack of clear communication from government agencies is disappointing.”

Indian food has been under scrutiny in Europe as well. The European Commission Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed estimates that since the beginning of 2023, Indian food products were deemed to pose serious risks in 166 instances. These included nine cases of ethylene oxide found in food supplements and spices in countries including Sweden, Greece and Italy.

The recalls come at a time when New Delhi is rolling out incentives to support local manufacturers and exporters in transforming India into a US$5 trillion economy. India is the world’s largest exporter of spices with shipments worth US$3.9 billion in 2023, followed by Vietnam and Mexico, according to data provider Tendata. Those figures give India a market share of 37.2%, with Vietnam at 28.1% and Mexico at 9.6%.

Poor food quality in India stems from a general lack of awareness about food safety and insufficient resources to track ingredients, among other reasons, said US-based food and beverage consultancy AIB International in a report in October.

The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India found 16,582 samples unsafe in the fiscal year 2022, the latest such data available. That was a threefold jump from the previous year.

“Most of the food and beverage manufacturers in India are focused on reducing costs to make their product affordable to the public,” the report said. “As a result, many cannot prioritize food safety as a pillar of their business because it could prevent them from meeting their profit margins.”

“Food manufacturing and processing facilities can lack the resources to maintain proper hygiene,” it noted, adding that food-borne illnesses in India is estimated to top 100 million every year.

Reuters busy in soliciting support for Israel

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday, in an attack that could lead to a major escalation between the regional archenemies. Here are some of reactions put together by Reuters, world’s leading news agency. The point worth noting is that no comment from any Muslim country has been included.

Israeli Prime Minister

"In recent years, and especially in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran. Our defensive systems are deployed; we are ready for any scenario, both defensively and offensively. The State of Israel is strong. The IDF is strong. The public is strong.

"We appreciate the US standing alongside Israel, as well as the support of Britain, France and many other countries. We have determined a clear principle: Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will defend ourselves against any threat and will do so level-headedly and with determination."

Iranian mission to UN

"... Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded.

"However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the US must stay away"

US President

"I just met with my national security team for an update on Iran’s attacks against Israel. Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad."

US House Speaker

"As Israel faces this vicious attack from Iran, America must show our full resolve to stand with our critical ally. The world must be assured: Israel is not alone."

UN Secretary General

"I strongly condemn the serious escalation represented by the large-scale attack launched on Israel by the Islamic Republic of Iran this evening. I call for an immediate cessation of these hostilities.

"I am deeply alarmed about the very real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation. I urge all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid any action that could lead to major military confrontations on multiple fronts in the Middle East.

"I have repeatedly stressed that neither the region nor the world can afford another war."

British Prime Minister

"I condemn in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s reckless attack against Israel. These strikes risk inflaming tensions and destabilizing the region. Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard.

"The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilize the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed.”

Canadian Prime Minister

"Canada unequivocally condemns Iran’s airborne attacks against Israel. We stand with Israel. After supporting Hamas’ brutal October 07 attack, the Iranian regime’s latest actions will further destabilize the region and make lasting peace more difficult.

"These attacks demonstrate yet again the Iranian regime’s disregard for peace and stability in the region. We support Israel’s right to defend itself and its people from these attacks."

German Foreign Minister

"Iran has fired drones and missiles at Israel. We strongly condemn the ongoing attack, which could plunge an entire region into chaos. Iran and its proxies must stop this immediately. Israel offers our full solidarity at this time."

German Ambassador to Israel

"Germany’s solidarity is with all Israelis tonight whom Iran is terrorizing with this unprecedented and ruthless attack: Jews as well as Arabs and Christians, the Bedouins in the Negev as well as the Druze in the Golan. May they all be safe.”

French Foreign Minister

"France condemns in the strongest terms the attack launched by Iran against Israel. By deciding on such an unprecedented action, Iran is taking a new step in its destabilizing actions and taking the risk of a military escalation."

European Union Foreign Policy Chief

"The EU strongly condemns the unacceptable Iranian attack against Israel. This is an unprecedented escalation and a grave threat to regional security."

European Council President

"Strongly condemn the attack launched by Iran on Israel. Everything must be done to prevent further regional escalation. More bloodshed must be avoided. We will continue to follow the situation closely with our partners."

Spanish Prime Minister

"We are following events in the Middle East with the deepest concern. We are in permanent contact with our embassies in the region which will remain open to support Spaniards in the area.”

Dutch Prime Minister

"Very worrying situation in the Middle East. Earlier today, the Netherlands and other countries sent a loud and clear message to Iran to refrain from attacking Israel. The Netherlands strongly condemns Iran's attacks on Israel. Further escalation must be prevented. ... We continue to monitor developments very closely."

Danish Foreign Minister

"Denmark strongly condemns Iran's announced attack on Israel. I urge everyone to show restraint and deescalate the situation. Iran’s destabilizing role in the Middle East is unacceptable - and so is this attack."

Norwegian Foreign Minister

"I condemn the illegal and dangerous Iranian attack underway against Israel. This will further deteriorate an already extremely volatile situation. We must prevent further escalation of violence in the Middle East. I call upon all parties to exercise maximum restraint."

Czech Republic Foreign Minister

"Czechia firmly condemns the destabilizing behavior of Iran and its proxies who decided to attack Israel. We reiterate the Israeli right for self-defense. Iran’s long term aggressive behavior is preventing the Middle East region to live in peace and security."

Columbian President

"It was predictable; we're now in the prelude to World War III precisely when humanity should rebuild its economy towards the rapid goal of decarbonization. The support of the US, in practice, for a genocide, has ignited the world. Everyone knows how wars start, no one knows how they end. If only the people of Israel were high enough, like their ancestors, to stop the madness of their ruler. The United Nations must meet urgently and must immediately commit to peace."

Argentina President

"The office of President Javier Milei expresses its solidarity and unwavering commitment to the State of Israel following the attacks by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Republic of Argentina recognizes the right of State-Nations to defend themselves and strongly supports the State of Israel in the defense of its sovereignty, in particular against regimes that promote terror and seek the destruction of western civilization."

Paraguay President

"In such difficult times, we express our full support for the people of Israel, and are concerned about the increase of violence in the region. We remain in contact with our embassies in the region to serve our compatriots."

Chilean President

"We express our concern about the serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the Iranian attacks against Israel. Chile condemns the use of force and defends international humanitarian law, which protects civilian lives in armed conflicts."

Mexican Foreign Ministry

"The government of Mexico expresses deep concern over Iran's attack against Israeli territory, and the impact that this could have on thousands of human lives. Mexico condemns the use of force in international relations, and calls on the parties to self-restrain and seek solutions peacefully to avoid a more general conflict in the Middle East. Mexico also emphasizes the importance of respecting international law for the sake of international peace and security."

 

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."

 

Pakistan exports to European Union states fall

Pakistan’s exports to European countries have fallen in the current fiscal year despite a GSP+ status that allows duty-free entrance into European markets for the majority of its products.

In absolute terms, Pakistan’s exports to European countries dipped 6.89%YoY in the first eight months of the current fiscal year to US$5.411 billion from US$5.812 billion in the corresponding period last year.

The decline was mainly attributed to reduced demand for Pakistani goods in western, southern and northern Europe.

In FY23, exports to the EU had dropped 4.4% to US$8.188 billion from US$8.566 billion a year ago.

In October 2023, the European Parliament unanimously voted to extend the GSP+ status for another four years until 2027 for developing countries, including Pakistan, to enjoy duty-free or minimum duty on exports to the European market.

Western Europe, which includes Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy and Belgium, accounts for the largest portion of Pakistan’s exports to the EU.

There has been a significant decrease of 13.2% in exports to this region. The export value was reported at US$2.609 billion in the first eight months of FY24, down from US$3.006 billion during the same period last year.

While exports to western, southern and northern Europe have seen a decline, there is a silver lining in the form of an uptick in exports to Eastern Europe. The exports saw an increase of 8.2% to US$407.6 million in 8MFY24 against US$376.68 m over the corresponding months of last year.

Exports to southern Europe saw a paltry decline of 1.1% to US$1.971 billion in 8MFY24 from US$1.993 billion over the corresponding period of last year. Exports to Spain grew 4.66% to US$966.95 million in 8MFY24 from US$923.85 million a year ago.

Exports to Italy declined 3.36% to US$733.79 million from US$759.36 million.

Exports to northern Europe have not done well, recording a 3.04% dip. The export to this region was reported at US$423.732 million, down from US$437.03 million in the corresponding period last year.

Before Brexit, Pakistan’s major export destination was the United Kingdom. In the post-Brexit period, Pakistan’s exports to the UK slightly went up to US$1.351 billion in 8MFY24 from US$1.329 billion.

In FY23, Pakistan’s exports had dipped by 10.63% to US$1.966 billion to the UK from US$2.20 billion a year ago.

The British government has assured Islamabad of no change in the post-Brexit scenario which is evident from the inclusion of Pakistan in its preferential market access scheme.

Growing number of countries ready to recognize Palestine

The leaders of Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Malta have announced they stand ready to recognize the State of Palestine as the only way to achieve peace and security in the war-ridden region.

The four leaders gathered on the margins of a summit in Brussels on Friday to discuss their readiness to recognize Palestine, adding they stand ready to do so when it can make a positive contribution and the circumstances are right.

“We are agreed that the only way to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region is through implementation of a two-state solution, with Israeli and Palestinian States living side-by-side, in peace and security,” a joint statement by the four heads of government reads.

Speaking after the summit, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob said he believed a lot could be done in the next week to strengthen political backing for a Palestinian state in the United Nations. Golob added he was sure that the moment when conditions for establishing a new government in Palestine will be ripe could be a few weeks, maybe a month away.

Nine of the EU’s 27 member states currently recognize Palestinians’ right to a state according to the so-called 1967 borders, which includes the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem.

Malta, along with eastern states such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia, have recognized the Palestinians’ right to statehood since 1988. In 2014, Sweden became the first member state to unilaterally recognise Palestinians’ right to statehood while a member of the bloc.

The Slovenian premier confirmed a representative also attended the meeting on behalf of the Belgian government, seen as another staunch supporter of Palestinians’ fight for statehood.

Belgium currently holds the 6-month rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU, responsible for overseeing its work and therefore likely restricted from signing such declarations.

Although the European Union supports the two-state solution – which would deliver statehood for Palestinians – and is the single biggest donor of aid to Palestinians, it has not yet unanimously backed the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“The debate on the recognition of Palestine was not on the table,” European Council President Charles Michel explained on Friday.

“But I will share with you what I think about it. I think that if the idea is to start a kind of process so it’s possible to take into account steps that could be made on both sides – by the Palestinian Authority, for instance, and by Israel – then it could be a useful process.”

Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, both Ireland and Spain have repeatedly expressed readiness to recognize Palestine, and spearheaded efforts to toughen the EU’s stance on Israel in response to the excessive loss of life in Gaza.

In a breakthrough on Thursday, the EU’s 27 leaders unanimously called for a ceasefire in Gaza for the first time since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas.

Last November, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez vowed that his newly formed government would make the recognition of Palestinian statehood its main priority in terms of foreign policy.

Speaking after the Brussels summit on Friday, Sánchez suggested to reporters that Spain preferred to move in lockstep with other EU countries rather than recognizing a Palestinian state unilaterally, an idea it has flirted with in the past.

“We want to take this step united. It’s a decisive step in order to lay the foundations of a lasting peace,” he said, adding that the EU should carefully calibrate the right moment to take the step.

Sánchez also suggested that the fact the four leaders represented all sides of the political spectrum – with Spain and Malta governed by centre-left parties, Slovenia by a Liberal party, and Ireland by a centre-right party – showed there was broad political consensus that the recognition of Palestine is necessary for any future peace process.

In February, Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar also confirmed a group of member states were in talks to formally recognize Palestine to enable a more equal negotiation to happen when the war raging in Gaza comes to an end.

 

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Bangladesh: Apparel export to EU falls 20%

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the European Union (EU) in the 11 months, from January to November 2023, declined by 19.92% to 16.26 billion euro from 20.30 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Exporters said that the shipment of readymade garments to the EU market decreased in recent months due to the economic slowdown caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global brands and buyers also placed orders in lower quantity due to the election time in Bangladesh but the orders started to increase after the national election in the country.

They hoped that the export to EU would rebound in the next quarter as buyers started to increase their orders thanks to easing inflation.

According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the readymade garment imports of the EU from the world in January-November 2023 fell by nearly 10% cent to 82.71 billion euro from 91.89 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Apparel imports of the EU from China in the first 11 months of 2023 declined by 21.42% to 21.15 billion euro from 26.92 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Although China remained the top apparel exporter to the EU in value, the Eurostat data showed that, in terms of volume, Bangladesh emerged as the highest knitwear exporter to the market in January-November 2023.

Bangladesh’s woven garment exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 were reported at 6.89 billion kilogram while those of China were 5.74 billion kilogram.

In value terms, Bangladesh’s knitwear exports to the EU in January-November of 2023 were reported at 9.94 billion euro against China’s exports of 10.48 billion euro during the period under review.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan recently said that apparel exports to the EU would come back on a positive track in the second quarter of 2024 as the inflation was coming down in the western countries and retail sales were getting better.

He also said that not only Bangladesh but also all the major RMG suppliers witnessed negative growth in the EU and the United States as the global demand decreased due to the economic turmoil.

Apparel imports of the EU from Turkey in January-November of 2023 declined by 13.42% to 9.20 billion euro from 10.62 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

India’s RMG exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 also fell by 11.87% to 3.81 billion euro from 4.33 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

As against this, apparel imports of the EU from Vietnam during January-November of 2023 grew by 2.48% to 3.49 billion euro from 3.40 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Naftali Bennett openly inviting the US and others to attack Iran

It’s time for the peoples of the West to wake up to the reality that Israel is not their friend. In fact, Israel is their enemy.

For the West, Israel is now a strategic liability. Israel’s leaders would readily sacrifice their interests to achieve its goals of ethnically cleansing Palestine and dominating the Middle East.

Israel’s former PM and unrepentant war criminal Naftali Bennett is now openly demanding that the United States and its allies to attack Iran. Not only would a war with Iran cause devastating death and destruction, it would also result in massive damage to the global economy and consume huge amounts of public money that could be used to better the lives of the citizens of Western nations.

Bennett and other Israeli leaders want the world to fight their war because 1) they cannot defeat Iran by means of conventional warfare and 2) they could not care less about the lives of soldiers and citizens from other countries.

The simplest and most humane way to bring peace to the Middle East is for Israel to agree to the creation of a viable and truly sovereign Palestinian state along the 1967 borders - which is what the United Nations has demanded for decades. These racist lunatics would rather plunge the West into another catastrophic war than respect the will of the international community and the human rights of the Palestinian people.

 

Bangladesh must address labour and human rights issues, says European Union

The European Union has expressed its concern over the labour and human rights situation in Bangladesh and called upon the government to increase the pace of the implementation of the National Action Plan on labour sector and the recommendations of the Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review to retain duty free market access to the economic bloc.

According to the second joint Staff Working Document on the EU’s enhanced engagement with three GSP beneficiary countries — Bangladesh, Cambodia and Myanmar — published on November 21, the EU’s Generalised Scheme of Preferences are linked to beneficiary countries’ respect to the international standards on human rights, labour rights, environment and climate, and good governance.

The European Commission report on the Generalised Scheme of Preferences covering the period 2020-2022 identified legal obstacles to the right to establish and operate trade unions, anti-union discriminations, shortcomings related to labour inspection, gaps in implementing occupational health and safety, and persistence of child and forced labour as the key concerns in the aspect of labour rights.

It also listed deficiencies regarding freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and association and civil society space, as well as cases of alleged torture, ill-treatment, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances as key concern in the aspect of human rights.

Enhanced engagement is conducted by the European Commission services and the European External Action Service, aiming to facilitate and incentivise beneficiary countries to make progress on critical areas with regard to the 15 core human rights and labour rights international conventions listed on the GSP Regulation.

Article 19 of the GSP Regulation (2) provides that the preferences may be withdrawn from any GSP beneficiaries in case of serious and systematic violation of the principles of the core human and labour right conventions.

The European Commission report said that Bangladesh remained by far the most important EBA beneficiary in terms of exports to the EU and about 50 per cent of its exports go to the EU.

According to the EU data, Bangladesh’s exports to the economic bloc were reported at 23.9 billion euro in 2022 which was 53.5% higher compared with 2021.

More than 90% of Bangladesh’s exports to the EU are ready-made garments.

Over the reporting period of 2020-2022, the 27-member bloc regularly informed Bangladesh of its concerns and conducted two monitoring missions in October 2019, and in March 2022.

The EU report observed that most of the changes to the Labour Act/EPZ Labour Act requested by the ILO Committee of Experts for a number of years either have not been addressed or addressed partially only.

It said that limited progress has been recorded in the reporting period with respect to human rights concerns expressed by the EU.

“With regard to cases of alleged torture, ill-treatment, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances, on multiple occasions in 2021 and 2022, the UN Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights expressed deep concern about the government’s failure to complete investigations and bring the perpetrators to justice”, the EU report said.

As part of the enhanced engagement discussions on human rights, the EU repeatedly expressed concern about some of the provisions of the Digital Security Act and encouraged Bangladesh to fully implement the recommendations that the Human Rights Council made, the report read.

In September 2023, the Digital Security Act was replaced by the Cyber Security Act and the preliminary analysis showed that the Cyber Security Act was not fully aligned with international human rights standards, the EU said.

The report recommended that the authorities in Bangladesh should increase the pace of implementing the commitments on labour rights included in the NAP and ILO Road map.

With respect to the key concerns on human rights, the authorities in Bangladesh should improve freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and civil society space; investigate cases of alleged torture, ill-treatment, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances; fully implement the recommendations of the Human Rights Council’s UPR, including the abolition of the death penalty.

‘The full compliance with the GSP relevant international conventions should also be seen in the light of the expected future graduation of Bangladesh from LDC status, which would imply moving from the EBA arrangement to standard GSP, the report mentioned.

An EU High-Level mission, led by Paola Pampaloni, deputy managing director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the European External Action Service, visited Bangladesh in November 12-16 and held several meetings with the government, labour leaders and businesses.

In a meeting with the high officials of the government, the EU delegation once again recommended bringing labour laws in full compliance with international standards and to remove the minimum membership requirement to form trade union.

They also conveyed to the government that the EU wanted to see a free, fair, and participatory election in Bangladesh.

 

Who will ultimately get control over Gaza?

Israel’s unabated bombardment at Gaza is raising questions over how the coastal enclave would be managed once the fighting is over. This exposes a growing divide between United States and Israeli officials on the issue. 

Several US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have said Israel should not occupy Gaza and the strip must be run by Palestinians. That has contrasted with Israel’s messaging. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is vowing to hold Gaza for an indefinite period once the dust settles, though he has not clarified what exactly that would mean for Palestinians. 

The post-conflict management of Gaza is also dependent on the outcome of the war and whether Israel fulfills its mission to eradicate Palestinian militant group Hamas — along with how much destruction is inflicted to that end. 

“The military operation itself may go on for a very, very long time, depending upon what form it takes and how successful it is, there are different possibilities,” said Ian Lesser, the vice president of German Marshall Fund US.  

“In the worst case, it could be that Israel is dealing with an ongoing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operation that is essentially open-ended,” he added. “So it could be a long time until we even see some kind of new phase.” 

Israel held Gaza from 1967 to 2005, when it withdrew following a major Palestinian uprising.  

Hamas has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, but the US-designated terrorist group is now fighting for its survival after it launched a surprise attack on southern Israel October 07 and killed 1,200 people, according to Israel’s revised figures.

Both Israel and the US agree that Hamas cannot be returned to power in Gaza, but the messaging on what happens next is muddied. 

Blinken said there may need to be a transition period at the end of the war, but that it was imperative that the Palestinian people be central to governance in Gaza. 

“We’re very clear on no reoccupation, just as we’re very clear on no displacement of the Palestinian population,” he said at a press event this week. “We need to see and get to, in effect, unity of governance when it comes to Gaza and the West Bank, and ultimately to a Palestinian state.” 

On Friday, Blinken also reiterated that the US is against the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and any efforts to reduce its territory. He also said Gaza must not be used as a terrorist base ever again. 

But Israel is still reeling from the October 07 attacks and officials are pushing to take whatever steps necessary to protect their people, both during and after the war. 

Netanyahu told ABC that he is committed to ensuring Israel cannot suffer the fate of October 07 again, promising a new security reality for the citizens of Israel. 

“For an indefinite period, Israel will have the overall security responsibility because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it,” he said. “When we don’t have that security responsibility, what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine.” 

While Netanyahu later clarified he does not seek to reoccupy Gaza, he said at a meeting on Friday that Israel would have total security control of the coastal enclave after the war, according to Israeli media. 

It’s unclear what that will look like, whether it would mean an Israeli presence along the border of Gaza or involve control within the territory itself. 

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Wednesday the US was having active discussions with Israel about the issue but declined to speak on Israel’s specific intentions. 

While Israel has resisted a global pressure campaign calling for a ceasefire, it remains susceptible to pressure from the US, its key security partner. Israel agreed to officially implement four-hour humanitarian pauses each day after pressure from the Biden administration. 

Paul Fritz, a professor of political science at Hofstra University who specializes in international conflict, said he views the ongoing dialogue as bargaining between allies with different objectives. 

“There are definitely some significant rifts between the US and Israel, along with other states in the international system, but the sort of quiet diplomacy that’s going on might be bearing some fruit,” he said. 

“Any movement in that way could ultimately be helpful because these are small issues compared to the big political questions that are regarding what to do after the war.”

The war in Gaza is dividing the United States into pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel camps, and any Israeli occupation after the fighting would only widen those divisions. Occupation could also spark more anger against Israel, including among those still supportive of its retaliatory war. 

In the Senate, progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have not joined calls for a ceasefire, but they have issued statements opposing any potential occupation.  

“Palestinians have a right to determine their own future,” Warren posted on X, formerly Twitter. “Israeli military occupation of Gaza undermines efforts to build two independent states that advance respect for every human being.” 

Rather than occupation, the US has backed the idea of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the Israeli-occupied West Bank, also taking over the Gaza Strip. 

PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told PBS the government is open to governing Gaza only in the event of a comprehensive solution that creates a Palestinian state. 

“We are not going to go to Gaza on an Israeli military tank,” he said. “We are going to go to Gaza as part of a solution that deals with the question of Palestine that deals with occupation.” 

There’s no guarantee that Palestinian people accept the PA as a governing body, given its own issues with corruption, ineffectiveness and being perceived as too passive toward Israel. 

Will Wechsler, the senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said, it was unrealistic to go back to the PA in the event that Israel defeats Hamas. 

He said they are struggling to do the practical work to govern in areas of the West Bank they currently control. 

Wechsler said the PA can still play an important role in the transition process, which could involve an international peacekeeping force.

“It’s going to be a real challenge and this is the most positive scenario,” Wechsler added. 

The war has also brought a renewed focus on a two-state solution — in which Israel and Palestine would exist in separate countries side-by-side — which many see as the only path toward lasting peace. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Reuters there must be a serious negotiation for a two-state solution with the involvement of the US and other interested parties. 

Blinken said at a press briefing on Friday that the tragedy of October 07 reinforces us in our conviction and our commitment to durable and lasting peace through a two-state solution.

However, Hamas represents a swath of the Palestinian population that rejects the idea of existing peacefully alongside Israel, and even if the militant group is defeated in the war, the ideology will live on in some form. 

The war is already taking a massive death toll, with more than 11,000 Palestinians killed so far, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. That has spurred fears that more Palestinians will be radicalized after the war, continuing the cycle of violence.  

“That’s the real danger,” said Fritz from Hofstra University, for Israel, for the Palestinians that they are going to be driven in this way.”

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan: GSP Plus status extended for another four years

According to Pakistan’s leading newspaper Dawn, the European Parliament on Thursday unani­mously voted to extend the current generalized system of preferences (GSP) for another four years until 2027 for developing countries, including Pak­istan, to enjoy duty-free or minimum duty on exports to the European market.

The parliament voted with 561 in favor, five against and two in abstention to extend the current rules on the GSP schemes, including GSP Plus, after talks with the EU Council on the new rules were paused in June, an official statement issued by the EU Parliament said.

In September this year, the INTA Committee, a trade body of the EU Parliament, approved the extension of GSP schemes for 60 developing countries.

Caretaker Commerce Minister Gohar Ejaz told Dawn that the decision will ensure that Pakistani exporters can keep selling their goods to the EU market with certainty. He said the EU is a major market for Pakistani exporters, adding that all schemes under GSP were extended for four years.

“I take this opportunity to reiterate Pakistan’s commitments under the scheme for the betterment of all,” the minister said, adding that Pakistan will comply with all obligations and effective implementation of 27 EU conventions.

EU Ambassador to Pakistan Riina Kionka in a post on X said this rollover is proposed so as to avoid a cliff edge at the end of 2023. “It is unrelated to Pakistan’s performance or that of any other beneficiary country. EU member states will decide soon and monitoring will continue,” she further said.

In another post, Ms Riina said that together with the EU team, “I whole heartedly support the commitment of Minister Ejaz and government of Pakistan to fully meet GSP+ obligations, referring to the implementation of 27 conventions on labour, human rights, political rights and press freedom.”

It is worth mentioning that the current GSP regulation was set to expire at the end of this year, and negotiations between the EU parliament and the council of member states took place in January 2023 to establish new rules.

In June, talks were paused as the gap between the position of the parliament and member states could not be bridged, and as a result, the current rules were prolonged.

The draft report by rapporteur Heidi Hautala only amends the date of application of the regulation currently in place, extending it until December 31, 2027. The extension gives more time for the European Parliament and member states to agree on the new rules.

“By dealing swiftly and efficiently with this prolongation and rollover, the parliament underlines that it will not let beneficiaries down,” the rapporteur said during the plenary on Wednesday.

“However, this rollover is an unfortunate consequence of not being able to reach an agreement between the council and parliament on the ongoing review of the GSP regulation,” she said, adding that there are two outstanding issues: the link the council wants between tariff preferences and the obligation of readmission, and safeguarding rice producers without creating excessive trade barriers.

On the first issue, Hautala said, “The European Parliament’s position is against the inclusion of this type of migration policy measures because this is a trade and development policy instrument, which benefits two billion people in the developing world.”

She added, “The trilogues will continue, and it is vital to conclude them as soon as possible. Now it is very important that the parliament and the Spanish presidency go the extra mile and make this review a reality. This would require, however, a change in the approach by the council on the question of readmissions. We need to preserve the GSP as a development tool.”

The EU Council is expected to give its final approval for the extension of the current rules soon.

 

G7 likely to remove cap on Russian oil

According to Reuters, the Group of Seven (G7) and allies have shelved regular reviews of the Russian oil price cap scheme, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, even though most Russian crude is trading above the limit because of a rally in global crude prices.

Russian producers have found ways to sell oil using fewer Western ships and insurance services, making it difficult for the West to enforce the existing price cap because the companies facilitating the trade are outside of their remit.

The G7 countries along with the European Union and Australia imposed the price cap mechanism on Russian oil last December, followed by a cap on fuel from February this year. Initially, EU countries agreed to review the price cap every two months and to adjust it if necessary while the G7 would review as appropriate including implementation and adherence.

The G7 has not reviewed the cap since March 2023 and people familiar with G7 policies said the group had no immediate plans to look into adjusting the scheme.

There were some talks in June or July to do a review, or at least talk about it, but it never formally happened.

While some EU countries were keen for a review they said that there was little appetite from the United States and G7 members to make changes.

The sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly later this month could serve as an informal platform for talks on the cap

The mechanism allows third countries to buy Russian fuel using Western ship insurance if there is proof the purchase does not exceed price limits of US$60 per barrel for crude, US$45 per barrel of heavy fuel and US$100 per barrel of light fuel such as gasoline and diesel.

The idea was spearheaded by Washington to cut Moscow's revenues amid its war on Ukraine while avoiding market disruptions as a result of an EU ban on Russian oil.

Benchmark Brent oil futures are trading at their highest this year at above US$90 a barrel, raising the value of global crude, including Russian Urals.

Russia's finance ministry said the average price on its flagship crude grade Urals has recovered to US$74 a barrel on average in August - well above the US$60 a barrel cap - and up from an average US$56 in the first six months of the year.

Russia was forced to cut exports of oil and products immediately after the price cap imposition as it struggled to find enough ships to transport all of its output.

However, the country has managed to move most of its exports into the hands of domestic or non-Western foreign shippers, which do not require Western insurance coverage.

According to Reuters, at least 40 middlemen, including companies with no prior record of involvement in the business, handled at least half of Russia's overall crude and refined products exports between March and June.

While mostly dark fleet of tankers with murky ownership was being now used to transport Russian crude, Western ships were still involved in moving products since those were harder to police, an industry source said.

According to LSEG data, Russian crude has been trading above the cap since mid-July and is currently being traded at around US$67 a barrel at Russian crude terminals. Russian refined products such as fuel oil and diesel have also surpassed their caps.

A US Treasury official said this week the cap was still effective as it had helped cut Russian revenues. He said the group would stay nimble but added there was no plan for an immediate revision.

 

Putin's effort to stop grain exports from Ukraine termed disturbing by US lawmaker

Michael McCaul in a Thursday interview called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s effort to stop grain exports from flowing out of Ukraine disturbing, warning of possible implications for North Africa, Europe and the United States.

During an appearance on NewsNation, McCaul told Chief White House Correspondent Blake Burman he’s worried about a possible scenario where war escalation could happen between Russia and NATO member countries that border the Black Sea. 

The White House on Wednesday warned that Russia is preparing for possible attacks on civilian shipping vessels in the Black Sea, noting that Russian military forces have laid additional sea mines that border Ukrainian ports. 

“Oh, sure. We’ve been worried about that scenario, since the inception of the Russian invasion into Ukraine,” McCaul told Burman.  

“This is very, I think, disturbing on Putin’s part to shut off […] grain from the Black Sea into the White Sea, because this could cause a famine in Northern Africa and it could also raise prices not only in Europe, but the United States. I think it’s highly irresponsible what he’s doing, but he’s desperate now.”

McCaul also said Turkey has tried to negotiate with Putin on a solution, noting that Russia’s withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will affect the global food market. 

“It affects the entire global food market. And again, I think the region that will get hit the hardest will be Northern Africa. It could set them off into a famine. I’ve met with the World Food Program,” McCaul added. “You know David Beasley was the head of that, he negotiated the deal with Putin. I hope we can make some progress, but the fact is, we will feel this here in the United States.”

McCaul’s remarks come days after Russia paused its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov saying in a statement that it would suspend its part in the deal unless its demands are met to get its own food and fertilizer out to the world. 

“When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal,” Peskov said.

The deal, brokered last year by the United Nations and Turkey, became necessary after Russia invaded and blockaded Ukraine’s ports.

Wheat commodity futures have risen about 12% since Russia announced it would suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukraine to export wheat from its southern ports via the Bosporus. Ukraine was one of the world’s largest wheat exporters before the Russian invasion.

Russia has also continued to attack Ukrainian port infrastructure and cities with missiles and drones, damaging the ability to export wheat if the deal were to resume. Those strikes have destroyed 60,000 tons of grain, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday.

“This attack proves that their target is not only Ukraine and not only the lives of our people. About a million tons of food is stored in the ports attacked today,” Zelensky argued. “This is the volume that should have been delivered to consumer countries in Africa and Asia long ago.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken predicted the rising prices while criticizing the Russian move Monday.

“So the result of Russia’s action today — weaponizing food, using it as a tool, as a weapon in its war against Ukraine — will be to make food harder to come by in places that desperately need it, and have prices rise,” Blinken said. “We’re already seeing the market react to this as prices are going up.”

 

Can NATO allies save United States from eventual defeat in Ukraine?

The NATO summit this week delivered yet another blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, with allies standing as united as ever against his war in Ukraine while announcing efforts to expand the alliance and boost defense spending.

The most punishing setback for Putin came on the eve of the summit, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hashed out a deal to admit Sweden into NATO after more than a year of resistance.

Erdoğan’s reversal not only puts the gears in place to expand the borders of the western security alliance — it also signals the Turkish leader is moving closer to the west and away from Putin.

“He’s no longer interested in being dependent on Putin economically and strategically,” said Asli Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at Brookings Institution with the Turkey Project. “I think Russians are upset. I think the Kremlin is very upset.”

It also helped repair Turkey’s strained relations with its NATO allies and gave President Biden a major win heading into the high-profile summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. 

At the end of the summit, Biden declared that NATO was more united than ever in its history.

“We will not waver,” Biden affirmed in the Wednesday speech. “Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken. We will stand for liberty and freedom today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes.”

Erdoğan’s Sweden approval also came just days after he freed Ukrainian fighters from the Azov regiment, a move that deeply angered the Kremlin because the prisoners of war were supposed to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.

Aydıntaşbaş said the prisoner release is an even bigger blow than the Sweden deal, the latter of which was likely anticipated. She assessed the Turkish leader has now sensed Putin has become weak — especially after the Wagner revolt — and is drifting closer to Biden.

“I wouldn’t call this a reset, but it lays the groundwork for a reset between the West and Turkey and that would be a big deal,” she added. “Because at the end of the day, Turkey is NATO’s second largest army and its drift away from the West has been a big issue.”

Aydıntaşbaş, however, acknowledged Erdoğan often makes deals for transactional benefits, and since he does not view the Ukraine war as a binary issue, he is likely to continue to play both sides.

Erdoğan only backed Sweden after he extracted concessions from the West, including enhanced counterterrorism operations, more arms sales and Swedish support for Turkey’s European Union membership hopes.

Erdoğan may also have won a deal to purchase long-awaited F-16 jets from Washington to modernize his air force, as the US announced the paused sale was moving forward a day after the Sweden agreement.

At the summit, Western allies also agreed to boost defense spending levels, a commitment that, if adhered to, would strengthen the alliance and its support for Ukraine. Members are now pledging to spend a minimum of 2 percent of gross domestic product on military resources and security.

NATO has for years tried to get the commitment to stick, to no avail. But Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said 11 allies have now reached or exceeded the target, while overall spending by Canada and Europe increased by 8.3% this past year. 

“This is the biggest increase in decades,” Stoltenberg said. “And we expect this number will rise substantially next year.”

Putin secured a minor victory in the dashing of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, with GOP presidential contender and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley saying that Biden made Putin’s day by refusing to commit to Kyiv’s future NATO membership. 

But the US and Ukraine sought to minimize the damage at the end of the summit.

NATO decided against fast-tracking Kyiv into the alliance or setting a clear timeline for membership, a move Ukraine says will only embolden Russia and allow Moscow to use inclusion into the alliance as a bargaining chip in peace talks.

But the alliance still took steps toward admitting Ukraine, removing a procedural hurdle, establishing a NATO-Ukraine council and affirming that Kyiv is closer than ever to membership.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had expressed disappointment in the membership process just a day earlier, said he held a powerful meeting with Biden Wednesday.

“The meeting was at least twice as long as planned, and it was as meaningful as it needed to be,” Zelensky tweeted. “If the protocol had not stopped the meeting, we would have talked even longer.”

NATO allies this week also announced big steps toward supporting Ukraine in the long run, putting a damper on Moscow’s hopes of weakening Western support for the war.

A coalition of 11 NATO countries set a date for F-16 training in August for Ukrainian pilots; France confirmed the shipment of much-needed long-range missiles for Ukraine; and the Group of Seven (G7) economic and political bloc announced a long-term security commitment for Kyiv.

Russia has tried to downplay the news coming out of the summit. Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service chief told state-run media outlet TASS that the summit did not bring “any surprise to Russia.”

But Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia’s attempts to weaken the narrative have largely failed.

“From a Russian propaganda perspective, it makes sense to downplay this as much as possible,” she said. “But the facts just speak against Russia, especially the long-term commitment of G7 members to deter Russia and to erode the optimism in the Kremlin [hoping] everyone in Europe gets tired.”

The Vilnius summit showed allies are standing by Ukraine, even as there are concerns about a lagging counteroffensive launched in early June and the prospect of a longer war, Fix said.

“At the beginning of this year, the messaging was all about Ukraine [and] what it means for this one counteroffensive this year,” she continued. “And I think that was recognized as a bit of a trap.”

This is “sort of an attempt to make clear that the commitment is not only until the end of this year, but the commitment will also extend to the next year.”

 

Iran oil income reported by EIA at US$54 billion for 2022

According to a report by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran’s oil revenues in 2022 were reported at US$54 billion, up $17 billion from the country’s oil income in 2021.

The EIA’s report also put the Islamic Republic’s oil revenue in the first five months of 2023 at US$19 billion.

Back in January, the EIA in a report put Iran’s average oil production in 2022 at 2.54 million barrels per day (bpd), 140,000 bpd more than the previous year.

In late April, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat announced the import of Iranian oil by three European Union (EU) members in 2022, and introduced Bulgaria as the newest customer for Iranian oil in this union.

The information published by Eurostat shows that the European Union imported 4,181 tons of crude oil or oil products from Iran last year.

Although the amount of EU oil imports from Iran is not a significant figure, it indicates the desire of European refineries to ignore the US sanctions against Iran, and the inclusion of these figures in the official European oil import statistics shows the desire of the European authorities to distance themselves from the sanctions, or at least showing their objection to the US sanctions policy against Iran.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said that the oil and gas sector experienced a growth of nine percent in the past Iranian calendar year 1401.

Oil Minister Javad Oji has also said that a new record high will be reached in the country’s oil export in the current Iranian calendar year.

The country’s oil export in 1401 was 83 million barrels more than that of year 1400 and 190 million barrels more than the export in year 1399, the minister announced.

Underlining that now oil export has reached the highest figure in the last two years, the official said, “Considering that the Oil Ministry is one of the main providers of the country's foreign currency; in the 13th government, despite the tightening of cruel sanctions, fortunately, thanks to the grace of God and the efforts of our colleagues in the country's oil and gas industries, there are good records in the field of exporting crude oil, gas condensate, and petroleum and petrochemical products.”

Despite the negative impacts of the U.S. sanctions, Iran has been ramping up its oil production and exports over the past few months.

In his remarks in November 2022, President Raisi highlighted the failure of the enemy’s policy of maximum pressure, saying the country’s oil export has reached the pre-sanction levels.

 

Germany resumes oil imports from Iran

Germany has imported a significant shipment of crude oil or petroleum products from Iran for the first time in five years, according to the latest data by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Germany imported 69,737 tons of crude oil or petroleum products from Iran in March 2023 despite the US sanctions that ban any trade of energy products with Iran, IRNA reported.

The country's last import of Iranian crude was a 10,000 tons shipment in October 2018.

Germany's move comes at a time when the US government has yet to make any changes to its unlawful sanctions policy against Iran despite its claim of seeking a diplomatic solution to ease tensions.

Bulgaria, another EU member, also imported 147 tons crude oil or petroleum products from Iran in the first quarter of the year 2023, although the figure is relatively small, according to Eurostat.

The European Union’s total oil imports from Iran during this period, based on data by Eurostat, was 69,884 tons, a figure not seen since 2018 when the US withdrew from the historic nuclear deal with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Now after five years, European refineries seem increasingly inclined to disregard U.S. sanctions, particularly in the wake of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine.

 

US dollar dominance eroding fast

The end of the dominance of the United States dollar is nigh as the Chinese yuan rises and the rest of the world sees the peril of the West's failed attempt to bring Russia to its knees over Ukraine, one of Moscow's most powerful bankers told Reuters.

Andrei Kostin, the CEO of state-controlled VTB, Russia's second largest bank, said the crisis was ushering in sweeping changes to the world economy, undermining globalization just as China was taking on the mantle of a top global economic power.

Asked if he thought the world was in a new Cold War, Kostin said that it was now a hot war that was more dangerous than the Cold War.

The United States and the European Union, he said, would lose from moves to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian sovereign assets as many countries were moving to settling payments outside the US currency and the euro while China was moving towards a removal of currency restrictions.

"The long historical era of the dominance of the American dollar is coming to an end," Kostin, told Reuters on the 59th floor of the gleaming VTB skyscraper overlooking southern Moscow. "I think that the time has come when China will gradually remove currency restrictions."

"China understands that they will not become world economic power Number one if they keep their yuan as a non-convertible currency," Kostin said, adding that it was dangerous for China to keep reserves invested in US sovereign bonds.

The US dollar has been dominant since the early 20th Century when it overtook the pound sterling as the global reserve currency, though JPMorgan said this month that signs of de-dollarization are unfolding in the global economy.

China's spectacular economic growth over past 40 years, fallout from the war in Ukraine and wrangling over the US debt ceiling has put the dollar's status under fresh scrutiny.

A former diplomat who served in Australia and Britain and went into banking just after the Soviet Union collapsed, Kostin is one of Moscow's most powerful and experienced bankers, having served previously as head of Vneshekombank, known now as VEB.

After President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February last year, the West unfurled what it said were the toughest sanctions ever imposed in an attempt to weaken the Russian economy and punish Putin for the war.

Kostin was sanctioned by the United States in 2018 over what it called Russia's malign activity around the world. After the war, he was sanctioned by the EU and by Britain which called him "a close associate of Putin".

He said the sanctions were unfair and a political decision that would backfire on the West, quipping that he had read interesting articles about the laundering of drug money through major Western banks.

"We have already entered into a hot war," Kostin said of the crisis with Ukraine. "It is not cold when there are so many Western weapons and a lot of Western services and military advisers involved. The situation is worse than in the Cold War, it is very difficult and alarming."

Kostin said VTB would see a profit of 400 billion roubles (US$4.9 billion) in 2023 after a bumper first five months of the year and a record loss last year.

Russia's economy, he said, would not be broken by the West. The International Monetary Fund in April raised its 2023 Russian GDP forecast to growth of 0.7% from 0.3%, but lowered its 2024 forecast to 1.3% from 2.1%.

"Sanctions are bad, and we suffer from them, of course. But the economy has adapted," he said. "At the same time, we expect that sanctions will intensify, they will be tightened, some windows will be closed, but we will also find other opportunities."

Asked if Russia's economy would remain a free economy, Kostin said: "I very much hope so."

(US$1 = 82.0000 roubles)