Merz's CDU/CSU bloc has consistently led polls but
is unlikely to win a majority given Germany's fragmented political landscape,
forcing it to sound out coalition partners.
Those negotiations are expected to be tricky after a
campaign which exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal
with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carries a
particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.
That could leave unpopular Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a
caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe's
largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies
struggle against global rivals.
It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of
Europe as it deals with a host of challenges, including US President Donald
Trump's threats of a trade war and attempts to fast-track a ceasefire deal for
Ukraine without European involvement.
Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long
relied on the US for its security, is particularly vulnerable.
Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards
now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008.
EU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver
a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the
bloc.
Some also hope Merz will reform the "debt brake,"
a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has
strangled new investment.
The
most likely outcome of this election, say analysts, is a tie-up of Merz's
conservative bloc of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU)
with the SPD, which is polling in third place in another uneasy "grand
coalition".
"A lot of my friends are likely going to vote for the
conservatives because this government didn't work so well and Merz's
international standing is quite good," said Mike Zeller, 26, a civil
servant.
"I just hope enough parties agree to a government so
they can leave the AfD out."
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