Sunday, 30 April 2023

Jordan to host talks on Syria’s return to Arab League

Jordan will host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers and Syria's top diplomat on Monday to discuss Syria's return to the Arab League as part of a broader political settlement of Syria's more than decade-old conflict, officials said.

The meeting, to be attended by Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and his counterparts from Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, would discuss a Jordanian plan to achieve a political settlement of the conflict, Jordanian government officials said.

The meeting comes two weeks after talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia between the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, failed to reach agreement on Syria's possible return to the Arab fold.

It is the first such meeting with a top Syrian official by a group of Arab states - most of whom endorsed the move to suspend Syria's membership of the League in 2011 after a crackdown on protesters denouncing President Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian rule escalated into a devastating civil war.

Arab states and those most affected by the conflict are trying to reach consensus on whether to invite Assad to the Arab League summit on May 19 in Riyadh, to discuss the pace of normalizing ties with Assad and on what terms Syria could be allowed back.

Officials said the Jordanian initiative calls on Damascus to engage with Arab governments collectively on a step-by-step road map to end the conflict.

It would include tackling the issue of refugees, the fate of thousands of missing detainees, drug smuggling between Syria and the Gulf through Jordan and the presence of Iranian militias in Syria.

Regional superpower Saudi Arabia has resisted normalizing relations with Assad but said after its rapprochement with Iran - Syria's key regional ally - a new approach was needed with Damascus, which is under Western sanctions.

At the Jeddah meeting there was resistance to the move to invite Assad to the Arab League summit, with Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait saying it was premature before Damascus accepts to negotiate a peace plan.

Jordan's foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, met on Sunday with visiting US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, officials said.

Washington does not wish to change its policy towards the Syrian government which it terms a ‘rogue’ state, has urged Arab states that have shifted their stance to get something in return for engaging with Assad once again.

Get ready for ‘President Kamala Harris’

The White House is preparing for the massive role Kamala Harris will have to play in the 2024 campaign. She has taken multiple hits as vice president, and her political stock has plummeted following criticism on multiple fronts. 

Yet she remains a key player in Biden world, with even more importance in a reelection campaign where the 80-year-old president’s age will be a key issue with voters.

Now the White House is focused on building Harris up as it prepares for what could be a rematch next year with former President Trump.

“There is an effort to re-launch her. I think with the age thing, the VP becomes more important, and it’s not necessarily to improve her, but to make her higher profile,” said a former Democratic campaign official.

Speaking about the Biden team’s prior work to diminish Harris’s profile, the Democrat added, “I don’t think there are any regrets.”

Harris was featured frequently in Biden’s reelection launch video this week. She and second gentleman Doug Emhoff appear just 15 seconds into the three-minute clip, a sign the campaign will not shy away from her as an asset who can connect with key voting blocs.

White House officials believe she has hit her stride as a leading voice in the administration on fighting back against GOP efforts to restrict abortion access. Hours after Biden launched his campaign, Harris spoke at a political event focused on reproductive rights, where she was greeted with chants of four more years.

But while Harris’s allies are keen to promote her as a boost to the campaign, Republicans appear just as eager to frame her as a drag on the ticket, especially through the lens of Biden’s age.

“I think we can all be very clear and say with a matter of fact that if you vote for Joe Biden, you really are counting on a President Harris, because the idea that he would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely,” Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said this week. 

“But really, are we willing to say we’re OK with a President Kamala Harris?” Haley asked.

Her comments underscore a looming balancing act for the Biden campaign: How to reassure voters about Harris when she is just a heartbeat away from the presidency without elevating her too much and drawing more attention to the issue of Biden’s age.

“Of course the Biden campaign is not going to make Harris more prominent, because they’re not going to want to send a signal that Harris is more important, because something might happen to Biden in office,” said Danny Hayes, a political science professor at George Washington University.

“Voters are still voting first and foremost for or against Biden, not Harris,” he added.

Harris entered the 2020 presidential race as a top-tier candidate for the nomination. But her campaign was plagued by personnel and messaging issues, and perhaps her most notable moment was a clash with Biden on the debate stage over student busing policy.

In her first year as vice president, Harris faced criticism over frequent staffing turnover and her handling of migration from Central America, a complex issue Biden tasked her with leading. Harris became a punching bag for Republicans who blamed her for problems at the southern border, and she drew criticism from Democrats when she told migrants not to come to the US.

Harris’s favorability rating has hovered in the low 40% range for much of her time as vice president. A Fox News poll published this week showed her favorability rating at 41%, including 73% among Democrats. The same poll put Biden’s favorability at 44%.

Harris has seemingly found her footing over the past year, leading the administration’s fight against abortion restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. In recent weeks she made high-profile trips to Africa and Tennessee, the latter coming after three Democratic state lawmakers were targeted for expulsion over gun violence protests.

“There is an effort to lift her up around the apparatus, but the other part of it is people are just now paying attention. She didn’t just start traveling, she didn’t just start lifting up these issues,” a source close to the vice president’s office told The Hill.

Harris has also taken on issues related to foreign policy, climate and small businesses. Over a year ago, she started traveling two to three times a week, including on five overseas trips.

“I’m actually thrilled to see her hitting a good groove, which to me sort of makes sense at this time of the presidential campaign. On abortion rights but also guns, you’ve seen her step up in a way that we haven’t up until this point,” said David Thomas, a partner at Mehlman Consulting and former deputy director of legislative affairs for former Vice President Al Gore.

Taking on those issues, especially reproductive rights, has elevated Harris’s profile and required her to traverse the country and meet with local officials, which can all be an asset to the 2024 ticket.

“Despite what maybe people think of her inside the beltway, she really excites the Democratic base, and that’s why we see her out in the country more often, talking to Democrats,” Thomas said.

After Harris’s challenges with staffing early on in the administration, she has brought on two top aides who her supporters say will be pivotal to her inner circle as the campaign picks up. Kelsey Smith, a longtime aide to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was hired as director of scheduling and advice for the vice president in January, and Lorraine Voles just hit her one-year mark as chief of staff.

There is also a belief Harris will be aided by the presence of Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who worked with Harris when she was a California senator and when she ran for president in 2020.

“She’s got this challenge of how many reboots are they going do,” said one Democratic strategist. “For Kamala, it’s always going to come down to can she put a good team together and execute.”

 

Iran, Pakistan explore ways to boost trade

Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mohammad-Ali Hosseini and Pakistani Finance Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar discussed the ways for increasing trade between the two countries in a meeting in Islamabad on Sunday.

Expressing their satisfaction that the trade between the two countries exceeded US$2 billion, the two sides emphasized the need to take more effective steps to strengthen economic cooperation and help expand trade relations.

During the meeting, the minister said that Pakistan attaches great importance to its relations with the friendly and brotherly country of Iran.

Appreciating the efforts of the Iranian ambassador during his diplomatic mission in Pakistan in order to strengthen the brotherly relations between the two neighboring countries, Senator Ishaq Dar praised the measures taken especially in the commercial and economic fields.

Expressing their satisfaction with the value of trade between Iran and Pakistan, which has exceeded US$2 billion, the two sides emphasized the need to identify new ways to help increase trade and develop economic cooperation.

Emphasizing the country's economic outlook, Pakistan's finance minister expressed confidence that despite economic challenges, Pakistan is on the path of progress and development.

Iranian ambassador to Pakistan for his part, appreciated the cooperation and support of the Pakistani government for the development of bilateral relations in various fields, and stated that the potential capacities of Iran and Pakistan are the main factor for the expansion of joint cooperation.

He added that bilateral trade between Iran and Pakistan has now reached US$2.4 billion, but it is not compatible with the good political and people relations of the two neighbors and more efforts should be made to support the business community of the two countries.

Back in January, Iran and Pakistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to facilitate bilateral trade between the two countries.

The MOU was signed by Head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Alireza Peyman-Pak and Head of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) Muhammad Zubair Motiwala.

Based on the MOU, which was signed on the sidelines of Iran’s Exclusive Exhibition in Karachi, the parties pledged to exchange business information, support each other’s private sectors, and provide the conditions and context for the presence of their trade delegations in the other country.

It was also agreed that both sides would take all the necessary measures to facilitate holding exhibitions in the opposite country, whenever required.

Speaking in the signing ceremony, Peyman-Pak said that signing this MOU was indicative of the two sides’ determination for removing the obstacles in the way of bilateral trade and prepares the ground for the businesspersons of both sides to bolster cooperation.

He considered the holding of exclusive exhibitions, exchanging trade delegations and investment in joint production units as positive steps for knowing the capacities and needs of the two countries and expressed hope that such events would continue.

The TPO head further mentioned some obstacles and infrastructural problems that are hindering the two countries' mutual trade, including lack of banking relations, problems related to sea transportation and logistics, and tariff-related issues, saying that the Iranian government is willing to resolve such problems in collaboration with the Pakistani government.

Motiwala, for his part, said that the signed MOU is regarded as a major step to enhance bilateral trade to reach the target of US$5 billion annually.

 

Iran to help Lebanon overcome energy crisis

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has asserted that Iran can fix Lebanon’s energy shortage through bilateral collaboration with the Arab country, noting the US sanctions on the Islamic Republic cannot affect such an endeavor.

Amir Abdollahian told a news conference in Beirut that during his three-day visit to Lebanon, he assured Lebanese authorities that Iran can address the electricity issue if the two nations sign a deal for cooperation.

“Of course, the US pressures and fear-mongering about sanctions are among the problems in this regard, but you should know that the US sanctions have failed,” he added.

He went on to stress that Tehran, which is subject to strict US sanctions, exports oil and other kinds of fuel to several nations, including Iraq.

“Given Iran’s capabilities, bilateral cooperation in the electricity and gas sectors is a profitable and two-way business both for Lebanon and Iran, and of course, it helps to improve the Lebanese people’s welfare,” the top Iranian diplomat highlighted. 

In this respect, talks between Tehran and Beirut are progressing, according to Amir Abdollahian, who expressed hope that the parties will be able to take concrete action following the conclusion of the political processes in Lebanon and the election of the nation's president.

The acute fuel crisis in Lebanon has caused several homes and businesses to struggle with ongoing power outages, and the country’s economic collapse since 2019 has slowed down fuel imports for government facilities.

Last year, after Hezbollah requested Iranian assistance to alleviate the energy shortfall in the Lebanon, Iran provided much-needed petroleum shipments via Syria.

Regarding Lebanon’s political issues, Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran has consistently backed any accord reached by the Lebanese parties and will use its resources to assist the Arab nation in completing its political process.

Iran would back the option, the foreign minister stated, if all Lebanese parties agreed to elect a Christian president in accordance with the nation’s constitution.

Amir Abdollahian further announced that Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies and general consulates in the upcoming days, about two months after the two regional powerhouses decided to mend their strained relations that had been broken seven years earlier.

The senior diplomat pointed out that the restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have positive effects on regional countries, especially Lebanon, and would start new chapter in their relationship.

 

Saturday, 29 April 2023

World military expenditure reaches new record high as European spending surges

Total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of US$2,240 billion. Military expenditure in Europe saw its steepest YoY increase in at least 30 years. The three largest spenders in 2022—the United States, China and Russia—accounted for 56% of the world total, according to new data on global military spending published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

World military spending grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 to an all-time high of US$2,240 billion. By far the sharpest rise in spending (13%) was seen in Europe and was largely accounted for by Russian and Ukrainian spending. However, military aid to Ukraine and concerns about a heightened threat from Russia strongly influenced many other states’ spending decisions, as did tensions in East Asia.

‘The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,’ said Dr Nan Tian, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.’

Military expenditure by states in Central and Western Europe totaled US$345 billion in 2022. In real terms, spending by these states for the first time surpassed that in 1989, as the cold war was ending, and was 30% higher than in 2013. Several states significantly increased their military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while others announced plans to raise spending levels over periods of up to a decade.

‘The invasion of Ukraine had an immediate impact on military spending decisions in Central and Western Europe. This included multi-year plans to boost spending from several governments,’ said Dr Diego Lopes da Silva, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. As a result, we can reasonably expect military expenditure in Central and Western Europe to keep rising in the years ahead.

Some of the sharpest increases were seen in Finland (up 36%), Lithuania (up 27%), Sweden ( up12%) and Poland (up 11%).

‘While the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 certainly affected military spending decisions in 2022, concerns about Russian aggression have been building for much longer,’ said Lorenzo Scarazzato, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘Many former Eastern bloc states have more than doubled their military spending since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea.’

Russian military spending grew by an estimated 9.2% cent in 2022, to around US$86.4 billion. This was equivalent to 4.1% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, up from 3.7% of GDP in 2021.

Numbers released by Russia in late 2022 show that spending on national defence, the largest component of Russian military expenditure, was already 34% higher, in nominal terms, than in budgetary plans drawn up in 2021.

‘The difference between Russia’s budgetary plans and its actual military spending in 2022 suggests the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia far more than it anticipated,’ said Dr Lucie BĂ©raud-Sudreau, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program.

Ukraine’s military spending reached US$44.0 billion in 2022. At 640%, this was the highest single-year increase in a country’s military expenditure ever recorded in SIPRI data. As a result of the increase and the war-related damage to Ukraine’s economy, the military burden (military spending as a share of GDP) shot up to 34% of GDP in 2022, from 3.2% in 2021.

The United States remains by far the world’s biggest military spender. US military spending reached US$877 billion in 2022, which was 39% of total global military spending and three times more than the amount spent by China, the world’s second largest spender.

The 0.7% real-terms increase in US spending in 2022 would have been even greater had it not been for the highest levels of inflation since 1981.

“The increase in the US military spending in 2022 was largely accounted for by the unprecedented level of financial military aid it provided to Ukraine,” said Dr Nan Tian, SIPRI Senior Researcher. “Given the scale of US spending, even a minor increase in percentage terms has a significant impact on the level of global military expenditure.”

US financial military aid to Ukraine totaled US$19.9 billion in 2022. Although this was the largest amount of military aid given by any country to a single beneficiary in any year since the cold war, it represented only 2.3% of total US military spending.

In 2022 the US allocated US$295 billion to military operations and maintenance, US$264 billion to procurement and research and development, and US$167 billion to military personnel.

China and Japan lead continued spending increase in Asia and Oceania. The combined military expenditure of countries in Asia and Oceania was US$575 billion. This was 2.7% more than in 2021 and 45% more than in 2013, continuing an uninterrupted upward trend dating back to at least 1989.

China remained the world’s second largest military spender, allocating an estimated US$292 billion in 2022. This was 4.2% more than in 2021 and 63% more than in 2013. China’s military expenditure has increased for 28 consecutive years.

Japan’s military spending increased by 5.9% between 2021 and 2022, reaching US$46.0 billion, or 1.1% of GDP. This was the highest level of Japanese military spending since 1960. A new national security strategy published in 2022 sets out ambitious plans to increase Japan’s military capability over the coming decade in response to perceived growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

“Japan is undergoing a profound shift in its military policy,’ said Xiao Liang, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. “The post-war restraints Japan imposed on its military spending and military capabilities seem to be loosening.”

Even one American in Iraq is too many, says Iranian President

The United States is an unreliable friend, and Iraq should not allow any US troops on its territory, Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told visiting Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid on Saturday.

Iran, which has strong ties with Iraq, opposes the US military presence on its borders in Iraq and the Gulf, saying Western military intervention is the root of insecurity in the region.

"Americans are not friends of Iraq. Americans are not friends with anyone and are not even loyal to their European friends," state media quoted Khamenei as saying.

US national security agencies are investigating after a leak of classified documents has suggested the United States spied on allies including Ukraine.

"Even the presence of one American in Iraq is too much," Khamenei told Rashid, who was in Tehran with a delegation to boost ties between the two neighbours.

The United States has some 2,500 troops in Iraq to help advice and assist local troops in combating Islamic State, which in 2014 seized territory in the country.

"Iraq's main effort is to deepen relations with Iran and resolve certain remaining issues between the two countries," Rashid was quoted as saying, without referring to Iraq's ties with the United States.

Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold peace talks in Washington on Sunday

Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold a new round of talks in Washington on Sunday to try to normalize relations, Yerevan said on Saturday, after weeks of rising tensions over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Armed forces from the two Caucasus neighbors have frequently exchanged fire amid disputes over the mountain enclave, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.

Azerbaijan set up a new checkpoint last Sunday on the Lachin corridor, a road to Karabakh that passes through Azeri territory, in a move that Armenia that called a gross violation of a 2020 ceasefire.

"From April 30 Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan will be in Washington DC on a working visit. The next round of discussions on the agreement on normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is scheduled," the spokesperson, Ani Badalyan, said on her official Facebook page.

Later on Saturday, the Armenian defence ministry said one of its soldiers had been injured by shot fired by Azeri forces near the village of Tegh in Armenia's southern Syunik province, Tass news agency said.

Tegh is the last village on the Lachin Corridor in Armenia before it enters Azeri territory.

Russian peacekeepers were deployed in 2020 to end a war, the second that Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought over the enclave since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

Despite years of attempted mediation between them, Armenia and Azerbaijan have yet to reach a peace agreement that would settle outstanding issues such as the demarcation of borders and return of prisoners.

Turkish plane comes under attack in Sudan

A Turkish evacuation plane coming into land at an airbase outside Sudan's capital, Khartoum, has been fired at, Turkey's defense ministry confirms.

No-one was injured and it landed safely at Wadi Seidna, where it was being checked.

Sudan's army blamed paramilitary fighters for firing at the aircraft and damaging its fuel system.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) denied the allegation, saying it was committed to the extended humanitarian truce.

The rival military factions agreed to an extension of their ceasefire at midnight local time (22:00 GMT on Thursday) for a further three days.

It has had only a limited effect, with army jets continuing to pound RSF positions in Khartoum during the night.

The previous truce allowed thousands of people to attempt to flee to safety, while dozens of countries organized evacuations.

Turkey's Defence Minister said efforts would continue to rescue Turkish citizen from Wadi Seidna and the city of Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast.

Since the clashes began 14 days ago, hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands forced from their homes.

The fighting is devastating the capital and its surrounds, which until recently had a population of around 10 million - leaving people without supplies of food, water and fuel. 


Friday, 28 April 2023

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index posts 1.4%WoW gain

The week ended on April 28, 2023 was marred with political uncertainty. The United States asked Pakistan to move ahead on stalled reforms by the IMF, while promising technical help in worst economic times. The IMF awaits clarity on the cross fuel subsidy scheme. In addition to this, foreign exchange reserves inched by US$30 million to US$4.5 billion as on April 20, 2023, culminating to an import cover of less than a month.

The KSE-100 index closed the week at 41,581 points, posting 1.40%WoW gain. Participation in the market was a pleasant surprise, daily trading volumes averaging a little above 208 million shares during the week as compared to around 105 million shares in the prior week depicting 98%WoW gain.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Saudi Arabia expected to sign deal for US$2 billion deposits after Eid, 2) GoP cuts growth rate to 0.8 percent, 3) profit repatriation during first 9 months of the current financial year plunges by 82% to US$233 million, 4) CPPA-G seeks positive adjustment of PKR1.17/unit, 5) regulator asks DISCOS to freeze capacity payments and 6) GoP bank borrowings surge 182% to PKR3 trillion.

Top performing sectors were: Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Tobacco, and Investment Banks, while the least favorite sectors included: Close End Mutual Funds, Leasing Companies, and Glass & Ceramics.

Top performing scrips were: POML, SRVI, DAWH, UBL, and MUREB, while laggards included: PGLC, HGFA, KAPCO, BOP, and PIBTL.

Flow wise, Companies were the major buyers with net buy of US$15.9 million, followed by individuals with net buy of US$14.17 million, while Mutual Funds were major sellers during the week, with a net sell of US$1.63 million.

According to media reports, Saudi Arabia and UAE have intimated IMF on financing support giving a relief on external financing shortfall of US$6 billion will dictate the market performance in near term. Moreover, political situation will be in limelight till general elections are held. Keeping that in view, analysts continue to advise scrips that have dollar-denominated revenue streams which hedges the investor against the currency risk, that include the Technology and E&P sectors.

Implications of Saudi-Iran deal for Pakistan

Implications of the apparent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran extend even further, with significant consequences for vital neighboring regions like South Asia and other populous Muslim countries, including, notably, Pakistan.

The recent announcement of a China-brokered peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran initially took the world by surprise. The debate persists concerning whether this deal will last, its potential implications for the United States, what it means for the Middle East region (including Israel), and what brokering this agreement indicates about China’s rising power.

Pakistan has for decades been an arena in the proxy war between Riyadh and Tehran that was sparked soon after the Iranian Revolution in 1979.

Saudi Arabia provided financial and ideological backing to many Sunni militant groups trained in Pakistan that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was arming to wage a jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan. Some of these groups, such as Sipah-e-Sahaba, and its offshoot, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, later turned their guns on the sizeable Shi’a minority in Pakistan.

Iran responded by offering support to Pakistani Shi’a militants to counter this Sunni militancy. Iran also began to cooperate with India in Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew in 1989 and US attention shifted away from the region.

New Delhi and Tehran notably both supported the Northern Alliance — comprised of a mixture of ethnic minorities, including the Shi’a — in the latter’s resistance to the predominantly Sunni Pashtun Taliban, which enjoyed good relations with Riyadh and Islamabad.

The post-9/11 US-led intervention in Afghanistan caused a seismic shift in regional alliances. Motivated, in part, by its longstanding rivalry with the United States, Iran began cultivating ties with the Taliban as they waged war against the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Pakistan’s relations with Iran also improved during this time. Despite some friction along their shared border, Iran and Pakistan broached the possibility of regional energy cooperation, which ultimately led to the two countries signing a bilateral natural gas pipeline deal in 2013. Nonetheless, Pakistan continued dragging its feet on completing its portion of the pipeline, fearing both Saudi and American displeasure over cooperation with its heavily sanctioned western neighbor.

Pakistan’s relations with the US, meanwhile, have been tenuous at best, soured by their divergent strategic objectives in Afghanistan and America’s increasing reliance on India to counteract Chinese influence across South and Southeast Asia.

Pakistan has doubled down on its military and diplomatic ties with China, and the two have significantly boosted their economic ties by launching the US$62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015, dubbed a flagship project of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

China included many Middle Eastern countries in the BRI, and it inked a 25-year strategic trade and investment accord with Iran in 2021, estimated to be worth between US$200 billion and US$300 billion. China’s move to involve Iran in the BRI may partly have been prompted by its desire to undermine India’s investment in the Iranian Chabahar deep-sea port on the Indian Ocean, viewed as a rival to the Chinese-controlled Pakistani deep-sea port in Gwadar.

For its part, Iran is trying to balance its relations with India and China. India used the Chabahar seaport to send shipments to Afghanistan, bypassing the need to cross Pakistani territory. Despite facing constraints due to the international sanctions regime, India had secured US waivers to buy Iranian oil and to invest in Chabahar.

Whether India will be able to maintain those relations with the Islamic Republic as its ties with the US continue to grow remains to be seen, but the increasing acrimony between China and India certainly makes it unlikely that Chabahar and Gwadar can become ‘sister ports’ to help enhance broader regional trade and connectivity.

Beijing’s attempt to simultaneously loop Iran and many of its arch-rival Arab states into the BRI may have been a key factor that informed its decision to step in to mediate one of the thorniest rivalries between Muslim nations in the Middle East. Other Muslim countries in the Gulf region and beyond, such as the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Pakistan, have applauded this high-profile Chinese diplomatic maneuver.

For Pakistan, in particular, the tempering of the protracted Saudi-Iran rivalry could not only help lessen long-running domestic sectarian frictions but also alleviate pressure on Pakistani decision makers to involve Islamabad in contentious proxy tussles elsewhere in the Muslim world, as happened in Yemen.

Even if the still fragile Saudi-Iranian rapprochement holds, Pakistan’s ability to improve its ties with the Islamic Republic will still be kept in check by concerns over further antagonizing the United States.

Biden administration officials have cautiously welcomed Chinese efforts to try to de-escalate tensions in the troubled region while expressing reservations about Iran’s likelihood to stick to the deal.

For many Muslim-majority countries, including Pakistan, Beijing’s diplomatic endeavors are more immediately relevant and beneficial than those undertaken by Washington to bring the Gulf states and Israel together to deter Iran.

Courtesy: Middle East Institute

Iranian exports to Turkey up 23%

The value of Iran’s export to Turkey increased by 23 percent in the past Iranian calendar year 1401, an official with Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) announced.

Farzad Piltan, Director General of TPO's Office of West Asian Countries, said based on the data released by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), Iran exported commodities worth US$7.45 billion to its neighbor in 1401, while the figure was US$6.079 in 1400.

Turkey was Iran’s third top export destination in the past year, the official named natural gas, aluminum, urea, polyethylene, copper cathode and cathode parts, copper wires, iron and steel ingots, and polyethylene as the major products Iran exported to Turkey in the previous year.

Iran’s import from Turkey also rose 15% to about US$6 billion in 1401, from US$5.2 billion in 1400.

Turkey was the third source of import for Iran in the previous year, the official named sunflower seed oil, road tractors, corn, bananas, generators, barley, soybeans, synthetic fibers, crude soybean oil, and solid acrylic polymers as the main items Iran imported from its neighbor in 1401.

The value of Iran’s exports to neighboring Turkey increased by 19% to US$3.35 billion in 2022.

Turkey had imported over US$2.82 billion worth of commodities from the Islamic Republic in 2021.

Iran's trade balance with Turkey has been $280 million positive in favor of Iran in the past year.

In last July, Iran and Turkey discussed ways of expanding economic relations along with political ties at the Turkish-Iranian High-Level Cooperation Council in Tehran.

During the meeting, which was co-chaired by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the two sides negotiated the extension of the gas export contract between the two sides for the next 25 years.

In the meeting, President Raisi noted that the Islamic Republic of Iran is determined to expand economic relations with neighboring countries.

The president also evaluated Tehran-Ankara ties as positive and progressive, saying that the two countries should pursue appropriate policies to move towards increasing their annual trade exchanges to US$30 billion.

On the sidelines of the mentioned meeting, Iranian Energy Minister Ali-Akbar Mehrabian also held talks with Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Dönmez in which the two sides exchanged views on cooperation in energy fields.

Later on, Head of Turkey’s Small and Medium Enterprises Development Organization (KOSGEB) Hasan Basri Kurt met with Head of Iran Small Industries and Industrial Parks Organization (ISIPO) Ali Rasoulian to discuss ways of expanding cooperation between the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) of the two countries.

In this meeting Rasoulian referred to the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the two countries on cooperation between SMEs, saying, “President Raisi has emphasized setting up joint industrial parks in the country’s special economic zones, considering the good infrastructure for setting up such parks in the free and special economic zones and the active presence of economic enterprises in these areas.”

 

First Republic Bank may be next to collapse

The San Francisco-based bank could be the next financial institution to collapse, signaling that last month's banking crisis isn't over yet. Its shares plummet 43% on Friday and 75% on the week as investors feared it would be shuttered by regulators.

Since Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) failure last month, First Republic’s stock is down roughly 97%.

Federal regulators are reportedly trying to figure out ways to prevent First Republic, which is headquartered in San Francisco, from failing — including asking other banks to step in and make bids.

The regional bank may ultimately be taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), like SVB and New York's Signature Bank.

The selloff was triggered by a terrible earnings report revealing that First Republic lost more than US$100 billion in deposits following the SVB collapse. The outflow came even as a group of megabanks attempted to rescue First Republic by depositing US$30 billion. 

First Republic’s depositors were concerned that the bank would get hit with a similar bank run. The bank also had large unrealized losses on its balance sheet that raised the risk of a collapse.

The extended banking crisis has ramifications for the US economy.

Regional banks such as First Republic are key lenders for area businesses. Even banks that aren’t struggling are pulling back their lending to reduce risk, hurting employers’ ability to hire and grow.

 

What ails Argentina economy?

Argentina’s crucial agriculture sector—which accounts for over half of exports and around 9% of GDP—is being hammered by unprecedented dry weather. Soybean production is expected to be 40% below the 5-year average this year, and wheat production is forecast to fall by around a quarter in the 2022/23 marketing year from 2021/22.

But the country’s economic problems run far deeper than circumstantial bad weather. Government interference in the private sector is considerable, in the form of taxes and other restrictions on imports and exports, and multiple exchange rate practices—in March this year the government announced a specific ‘Malbec dollar’ rate for wine and other agriculture products for instance. 

This interference, coupled with the lack of an overarching, comprehensive structural reform blueprint—in 2020 the president said in an interview “Frankly, I don’t believe in economic plans”—has sapped investors’ confidence.

The combination of weak confidence in government policymaking and lower inflows of foreign currency due to drought have weighed on the peso in recent months; the official exchange rate is now over ARS 200 per US dollar, compared to just over ARS 100 per US dollar this time last year. The black-market peso is priced at a much higher ARS 460 per US dollar. As a result, inflation is in triple figures and rising. And the central bank has jacked interest rates up to 91% in response, heaping more misery on the economy.

The consensus forecast forewarns the GDP to contract 2% this year, and for inflation to end the year around 110%. These figures are already bad enough, but risks are still stacked to the downside. The drought could intensify. Social unrest may bubble over as economic conditions worsen. And as the October 2023 general election approaches, the government could enact populist measures in a bid to gain public support, putting the country’s IMF deal in jeopardy. Even if the opposition Together for Change coalition wins the elections as expected, recovery will be slow. Economic instability has been a feature of the Argentinian landscape for a century or more; it is likely to remain so for some time.

 

Sudan conflict threatens supply of key soft drink ingredient

Sudan's eruption into conflict has left international consumer goods makers racing to shore up supplies of gum arabic, one of the country's most sought-after products and a key ingredient in everything from fizzy drinks to candy and cosmetics.

About 70% of the world's supply of gum arabic, for which there are few substitutes, comes from the acacia trees in the Sahel region that runs through Africa's third-largest country, which is being torn apart by fighting between the army and a paramilitary force.

Wary of Sudan's persistent insecurity, companies dependent on the product, such as Coca Cola and Pepsico, have long stockpiled supplies, some keeping between three-to-six-months’ worth to avoid being caught short, exporters and industry sources told Reuters.

However, prior conflicts have tended to be focused in far-flung regions such as Darfur. This time, the capital Khartoum has been brought to a standstill in the fighting that broke out on April 15, 2023 paralyzing the economy and disrupting basic communications.

"Depending on how long the conflict continues there may well be ramifications for finished goods on the shelf - branded goods made by household names," said Richard Finnegan, a procurement manager at Kerry Group, a supplier of gum arabic to most major food and beverage firms.

Finnegan estimated that current stockpiles will run out in five-to-six months, a view echoed by Martijn Bergkamp, a partner at Dutch supplier FOGA Gum who estimated between three-to-six months.

Cloetta AB, a Swedish confectioner which makes Lakerol lozenges that use gum arabic, has ample stock of the ingredient, a spokesperson said in an email.

Global production of gum arabic is about 120,000 tons a year, worth US$1.1 billion, according to estimates cited by Kerry Group. Most is found in the gum belt that stretches 500 miles from the East to the West of Africa where the arable land meets the desert, including in Ethiopia, Chad, Somalia and Eritrea.

Twelve exporters, suppliers and distributors contacted by Reuters said trade in the gum, which helps bind together food and drink ingredients, has ground to a halt.

Right now it’s impossible to source additional gum arabic from rural parts of Sudan because of the turmoil and road blockages, said Mohamad Alnoor, who runs Gum Arabic USA, which sells the product to consumers as a health supplement.

Kerry Group and other suppliers, including Sweden's Gum Sudan, said communicating with contacts on the ground has been difficult and Port Sudan - from where product is shipped - has been prioritizing civilian evacuations.

“Our suppliers are struggling to secure necessities because of the conflict," Jinesh Doshi, managing director of Vijay Bros, an importer based in Mumbai, said. "Both buyers and sellers are clueless on when things will normalize.”

Alwaleed Ali, who owns AGP Innovations Co, a gum arabic exporting business, said his customers are looking for alternative countries to source gum arabic.

He said he sells the gum to Nexira SAS, based in Rouen, France, and Westchester, Illinois-based Ingredion Inc., two major ingredients suppliers to makers of products such as pet food, fizzy drinks and nutrition bars.

A spokesperson for Ingredion said in an email, "We have proactive measures in place across our business to ensure the continuity of supply for our customers."

PepsiCo declined to comment on supply chain and commodity issues, while Coca-Cola did not return a request for comment.

"For companies like Pepsi and Coke, they can't exist without having gum arabic in their formulations," Dani Haddad, marketing and development director of Agrigum, a global top-ten supplier, said.

In their manufacturing process, food and drink companies use a spray-dried version of the gum that is powder-like, industry sources said. While cosmetics and printing manufacturers may be able to use substitutes, there is no alternative to gum arabic in fizzy drinks, where it prevents ingredients from separating.

In a sign of its importance to the consumer goods industry, gum arabic has been exempt from U.S. sanctions against Sudan since the 1990s, both because it's a critical commodity and for fear of creating a black market.

Sudanese nomads tap the pebbly, amber-colored gum from acacia trees, which is then refined and packaged throughout the country. It accounts for the livelihoods of thousands of people and the more expensive variety can cost about US$3,000 a ton, according to Gum Sudan.

There is a poorer quality, cheaper gum from outside of Sudan, but the preferred ingredient is only found in acacia trees in Sudan, South Sudan and Chad, Alnoor said.

Fawaz Abbaro, the general manager of Savannah Life Company in Khartoum, said he had purchase orders and plans to export 60 to 70 tons of gum arabic but doubts he'll be able to due to the conflict.

"It's not stable even to get food or drink. It's not going to be stable for business," Abbaro said. "All trading will be jammed for the time being."

 

Thursday, 27 April 2023

Palestinians condemn comments by head of European Commission

Palestinians have described remarks about Israel by the head of the European Commission as inappropriate, false and discriminatory.

It follows a congratulatory video message by Ursula von der Leyen on Israel's Independence Day. In it she praised Israel, among others, for having made the desert bloom.

It has sparked an unusual diplomatic spat between the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the European Union (EU), its main donor.

A spokesperson for the commission told the BBC, "The EU is unpleasantly surprised by the inappropriate statement of the Palestinian foreign ministry accusing the president of the European Commission of racism."

The PA singled out Ms von der Leyen's suggestion that Israel had cultivated barren land, calling it an anti-Palestinian racist trope.

The phrase making the desert bloom is commonly used by Israel and its backers to describe what they view as the country's success in developing the land since the founding of Israel in 1948.

However, Palestinians argue that it erases their history and suggests that the land was previously uninhabited or untended.

The PA is calling for an apology from the European Commission president.

"Seventy-five years ago, a dream was realized with Israel's Independence Day," Ms von der Leyen said in her message. "After the greatest tragedy in human history, the Jewish people could finally build a home in the promised land."

"Today, we celebrate 75 years of vibrant democracy in the heart of the Middle East, 75 years of dynamism, ingenuity and groundbreaking innovations. You have literally made the desert bloom, as I could see during my visit to the Negev last year."

The PA statement describes the message, addressed to Israel's President Isaac Herzog, as propagandist discourse and part of an ongoing dispossession of Palestinians.

The PA claims it "dehumanizes and erases the Palestinian people and falsifies their rich history and civilization".

In addition, it says that the European statement whitewashes Israel's occupation of lands Palestinians claim for their hoped-for future state and denies what they call the Nakba (Arabic for catastrophe) of 1948.

Some 700,000 Palestinians fled or were forced to leave their homes in the war that followed the Israel's creation.

Palestinians mark Nakba Day on May 15 according to the Gregorian calendar, while the timing of Israel's Independence Day follows the Hebrew calendar.

Some Palestinians on social media have also criticized or mocked the European leader for her comments about shared values with Israel.

The European Commission is part of the executive of the European Union.

The spokesman for the commission stressed the EU's diplomatic ties with the PA, pointing out that Ms von der Leyen met PA Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh when she visited the region in June 2022.

They said a meeting to co-ordinate the delivery of international aid to the Palestinians was due to take place in Brussels next week.

"The EU is actively looking for solutions for the difficult situation of the Palestinian people," they added.

Iran seizes oil tanker in Gulf of Oman

Iran seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman in international waters on Thursday, the US Navy said, the latest in a series of seizures or attacks on commercial vessels in sensitive Gulf waters since 2019.

Iran's army said it had seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after it collided with an Iranian boat, injuring several crewmen, Iranian state media reported.

"Two members of the boat's crew are missing and several were injured due to the collision of the ship with the boat," an army statement said.

The US Navy identified the vessel as the Advantage Sweet. According to Refinitiv ship tracking data, it is a Suezmax crude tanker that had been chartered by oil major Chevron and had last docked in Kuwait.

Chevron said it is aware of the situation involving the Advantage Sweet and is in contact with the vessel operator with the hope of resolving this situation as soon as possible, a spokesperson said.

The vessel's destination was listed as the US Gulf of Mexico port of Houston, ship tracking data showed.

The Marshall Islands Maritime Administrator said it was aware of the situation and was in communication with the vessel's owner/operator.

"Iran's continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights in regional waters are a threat to maritime security and the global economy," the US Navy said, adding Iran has in the past two years unlawfully seized at least five commercial vessels in the Middle East.

The US Navy added that after sending a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to monitor the situation, "we have since been able to determine the IRIN (Iranian navy) conducted the seizure".

About a fifth of the world's crude oil and oil products passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow choke point between Iran and Oman which the Advantage Sweet had passed through, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa.

Maritime security company, Ambrey said the vessel had been boarded via helicopter. "The vessel did not show any signs of conducting evasive maneuvers prior to the incident," it said.

Munro Anderson, with maritime security company Dryad, said separately that Iran usually detained vessels for "leverage or signalling".

"The working hypothesis at the moment is that it could either be an arbitrary detention of a vessel by Iran in response to the US sailing its first unmanned vessel through the region last week - as a show of force," he said. "Or, it could be in response to the sanctions on the 24th (of April) by the US against personnel in Iran connected to the IRGC (elite Revolutionary Guards)."

Since 2019 there have been a series of attacks on shipping in the strategic Gulf waters at times of tension between the United States and Iran.

Iran last November released two Greek-flagged tankers it seized in the Gulf in May in response to the confiscation of oil by the United States from an Iranian-flagged tanker off the Greek coast.

Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear pact with world powers have stalled since September over a range of issues, including the Islamic Republic's violent crackdown on popular protests, Tehran's sale of drones to Russia and acceleration of its nuclear program.

The US Navy Fifth Fleet is based at the Gulf island state of Bahrain, called on Iran to immediately release the tanker.

The ship issued a distress call during the seizure, the U.S. Navy statement said.

According to the International Maritime Organization shipping database, the Advantage Sweet is owned by a China-registered company called SPDBFL No One Hundred & Eighty-Seven (Tianjin) Ship Leasing Co Ltd.

 

US economy posts paltry growth in first quarter

US economic growth slowed dramatically in the first three months of 2023, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

Gross domestic product (GDP), the measure of all goods and services produced, rose at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter; it is down from 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. 

Economists had forecasted country’s GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter. Analysts cautioned that much of the growth took place in January thanks in part to usually warm weather, but economic activity began to fall off fast in March. 

While retail sales fell in March as inflation and higher borrowing costs hit consumers, household spending still rose 3.7% during the first quarter from the last three months of 2022.

“The US economy eked out modest growth in the first quarter on the back of strong consumer spending. But the consumer ended the quarter on a sour note, calling into question the sustainability of economic growth moving forward,” said Morning Consult chief economist John Leer in an analysis.

“Without a robust consumer, we’re likely to see more volatility and uncertainty in economic activity through the end of the year.”

The unexpectedly steep slowdown in economic growth is the latest sign of the US economy feeling the brunt of stubborn inflation and steep Federal Reserve rate hikes intended to bring prices down.

The aftermath of the March 2023 banking crisis and fears of another financial crunch are also slowing the economy through steeper borrowing costs and lower consumer confidence.

Business investment plunged 12.5% between the end of last year and the beginning of 2023, sapping strength from the economy.

“We think the first quarter will be followed by a modest outright decline in the second quarter, marking the start of a recession which we expect to last until the fall,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a research note ahead of the report.

“We’ll have a much better idea once the extent of the credit tightening, triggered by the banking crisis, becomes clear.”

From here, economists largely expect economic growth to deteriorate rapidly. The Conference Board forecasts US GDP to contract 1.8 percent in the second quarter amid fears of a looming recession. 

Consumer demand is finally cooling after years of elevated inflation and a flurry of Fed interest rate hikes. Banks are pulling back on commercial lending following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, slowing the growth of businesses that rely on financing.

“The job market and consumer spending have held up remarkably well despite the Fed raising interest rates as high and as fast as they have and so far that doesn’t seem to be falling apart, but the economy is slowing and inflation is not anywhere near the Fed’s target of 2%,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, in a Thursday statement.

Prices for consumer goods rose 4.2% during the first quarter, up from a 3.7% quarterly inflation rate during the fourth quarter of 2022. The Fed aims for annual inflation of 2% and may be compelled to keep raising rates if inflation remains high even as the economy slows.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee will meet May 1-2 and decide whether to issue another 0.25-percentage point rate hike or step back as the economy shows clear signs of slowing down.

Fed officials expect to raise rates at least one more time in 2023, according to projections from their March meeting, but did not commit to a course of action for May.

The slowdown in economic growth also poses a serious political challenge for President Biden, whose recently launched reelection campaign may depend largely on the strength of the economy.

Under Biden, the US regained millions of jobs lost to the COVID-19 recession and saw the unemployment rate drop back down to 3.5% — its level in February 2020, which was the lowest jobless rate in 50 years.

The rapid rebound also helped millions of Americans find new jobs with better compensation or working conditions as employers battled to fill record numbers of open positions.

Even so, American households are still struggling amid high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and now a pullback in business investment that could leave the US closer to recession.

 

Wednesday, 26 April 2023

Iran: Copper can earn US$10 billion

The development of the copper industry and the support of the development plans for the sector can lead to earning US$10 billion of income for the country, the chairman of Iran Copper Association stated.

Regarding the amount of copper reserves and mining capacity of Iran, Bahram Shakouri said the reserves discovered in the country are 54 million tons, of which usually 50% can be extracted, underlining, “With this amount of reserve, we have a good position in the world.”

“Now, with the new discoveries, our position in terms of copper reserves in the world has improved, in a way that today we have reached 6% of the world's reserves from 4% in the past, and our position in the world has increased from the 8th to the 5th place”, he continued.

The chairman of the Iran Copper Association further said, “There is no balance between our reserves and production”, and continued, “We must go in the direction of extracting 3% to 5% of the reserves in accordance with our position. If we propose today that the industry can earn US$10 billion, it should be able to produce one million tons of copper cathodes, which is based on global norms.”

“Considering 54 million tons of reserves in the country, of which at least 27 million tons can be extracted, and we have 3% to 5% of the world's copper reserves, it is reasonable and logical to reach one million tons of copper cathode production, and if this does not happen, we have failed”, Shakouri reiterated.

“The world's movement towards the use of clean technologies and innovations will increase the consumption of non-ferrous metals such as copper, and in the coming years, there will be a need to supply copper up to four times today,” Shakouri had said last November.

The increase in demand will increase the price of copper, and accordingly, we must move towards completing the copper chain in Iran, he added.

“Today, the copper chain is complete with cathode production in the country, while more than 50% of the copper cathode is being exported, and if we can create more added value in this sector, we will have more exports and gain more revenue,” Shakouri concluded.

Copper cathode is the primary raw material input for the production of copper rods for the wire and cable industry.

Being located on the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, of which about 12.5% is located in Iran, the country should contribute greatly to the fourfold increase in the world’s copper production by 2050, Shakouri has stated.

Stressing the need for planning to increase Iran's share in the world’s copper production, he added: "To increase our share in the global copper production in the 2050 horizon, we must develop both exploration and extraction and discover new world-class reserves.”

Also in mid-March, the head of the National Iranian Copper Industries Company (NICIC) said the country’s copper production is going to reach one million tons in the next six years.

Ali Rostami noted that in the case of reaching the above-mentioned output, the country’s copper export is also going to hit US$10 billion.

 

Pakistan: Will general elections be held in October 2023?

Besides facing dire economic challenges, Pakistan has been passing through a political crisis as well. The political quagmire has exacerbated. Investors’ confidence already shattered amid fears of default on foreign loans, has been battered further by uncertainties hovering over the elections schedule. This raises the million dollar question will the Elections be held in 2023.

The Elections for the National Assembly have become due by October 2023 as per the constitution. The dissolution of two Provincial Assemblies ahead of the October schedule and the judicial orders to hold early elections makes the situation untenable.

According to Polls conducted by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, 60-70% respondents feel elections will be held before October or in October 2023, while 20-30% think it will be delayed.

If National Elections are held around October 2023, there is high probability that Khan led PTI may get highest seats in National Assembly, surveys and polls forecast, unless Khan meets with disqualification, party breakup, etc. due to under trial cases against him.

With risk that present prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif may be disqualified by Supreme Court on contempt, another much talked about scenario has been that the present coalition government (PDM) might get its office term extended beyond October 2023. The government might invoke the Article 232 of the constitution under the garb of ‘emergency’ in the country on the pretext of security concerns or/and financial crisis.

Hypothetically, if the government undertakes such measures, matter might be challenged by the opposition in the court of law and the court may give its ruling over the government decision. It could linger the matter further and crisis may persist persist.

Another option could be the military rule. The country has witnessed direct military rule for 33 out of 75 years in Pakistan. Chances of direct military rule are slim, 10% as per our Poll.

To cool down the situation efforts of dialogue between political parties to sort out this elections related matter has started. This out of the court settlement, through dialogues can be a catalyst to cooling political heat and lead to any decision regarding the Elections for the national and provincial assemblies.

The brokerage house believes, this uncertain political theatre would keep on reflecting on the stock market, economy and currency. However, once the truce is carved the current political battles, the focus will be imminently back on economy.

The brokerage house in one of its earlier reports “Pakistan’s Debt Restructuring” dated December 03, 2022 and report “Pakistan Debt Restructuring – Part 2” dated January 24, 2023 the crucial factor or the Achilles heel of the current debt is the short term rollovers that have increased by 9 times to over US$12 billion since 2015.

The brokerage house is of the view that external debt restructuring is the litmus test, the mode of restructuring, and how orderly or disorderly are done, will determine Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities.

Pakistan new government should ideally try to convert its short-term external loans with long term with the help of friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia and UAE etc. If that is not doable, then Pakistan should try G-20 common framework of debt restructuring. These are less painful and will help in economic recovery.

 

 

China to send special envoy to Ukraine

Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky over the phone on Wednesday. The call was the first time the two leaders had talked since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

China has faced mounting criticism over its stance on the war, with Beijing’s assertion of neutrality failing to convince Western governments because of its disproportionate interaction with Moscow.

During the call, Xi pledged long-term cooperation with Ukraine, and said China will send its special envoy on Eurasian affairs to Ukraine and other countries.

The envoy, former vice-minister of foreign affairs Li Hui, would be the most senior Chinese official to set foot on Ukrainian soil since the war began. He was China’s ambassador to Russia for 10 years, from 2009 to 2019.

Xi also said mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity was the political foundation of bilateral relations.

He did not mention Russia by name at all, according to the CCTV report, though he reiterated China’s stance on the war and called for more dialogue.

Xi had held multiple calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin since the invasion, and even led a delegation to Moscow in March – his first overseas trip since beginning a historic third term.

The call also came just two weeks after French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited China and said they had urged Xi to call Zelensky.

Xi had replied that the conversation could happen when the conditions and time are right, according to von der Leyen.

 

United States allows J P Morgan payment route for Russian grain export

The United States gave J P Morgan permission to process payments for agricultural exports via the Russian Agricultural Bank, but the arrangement was no substitute for reconnecting the bank to the SWIFT system, two Russian sources told Reuters.

Access to the SWIFT payment system is one of Russia's main demands in negotiations over the future of the Black Sea grain export deal, which the United Nations says helps to tackle a global food crisis that has been aggravated by the Ukraine war.

The Kremlin has repeatedly warned the deal will not be renewed beyond May 18 unless the West removes obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports, including the financing and insurance of exports.

A Russian source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) had allowed JPMorgan to process the transaction.

"JPMorgan received permission from OFAC to carry out payment for agricultural procure - but the process is difficult," said the first Russian source.

A second Russian source said that JPMorgan and Russian Agricultural Bank, which is under US and European Union sanctions, were both specifically given exemptions to execute a single transaction.

It involved grain and was denominated in US dollars, according to the second Russian source. A third source also said the transaction was for grain.

Reuters could not ascertain who the exporter was or the destination of the supply.

The JPMorgan route was proposed as an alternative to reconnecting Russian Agricultural Bank (known as Rosselkhozbank) to SWIFT, but could be terminated at any time, the first Russian source said. "This cannot replace SWIFT," the source said.

Another source familiar with the transaction said the US State Department and US Treasury had asked JPMorgan to carry out the very limited and highly monitored transaction in relation to the export of agricultural materials, which occurred this month.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday told a briefing at the United Nations that one bank kindly consented to finance one operation, but that was not an acceptable long-term solution, Lavrov did not name the bank.

 

Tuesday, 25 April 2023

Putin signs decree to take over Russian assets of two foreign firms

President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree establishing temporary control of the Russian assets of two foreign energy firms, signaling Moscow could take similar action against other companies, if need be.

The decree - outlining possible retaliation if Russian assets abroad are seized - showed Moscow had already taken action against Uniper Russian division and the assets of Finland's Fortum Oyj.

The decree said Russia needed to take urgent measures to respond to unspecified actions from the United States and others it said were unfriendly and contrary to international law.

The shares in the two entities have been placed in the temporary control of Rosimushchestvo, the federal government property agency, the decree said.

In February, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Russia should bear the costs of damage caused by its war on Ukraine, adding though there were significant legal obstacles to confiscating major frozen Russian assets.

The CEO of state-owned bank Bank VTB PAO had on Monday said Russia should consider taking over and managing the assets of foreign companies such as Fortum, only returning them when sanctions are lifted.

Rosimushchestvo said more foreign firms could find their assets under temporary Russian control, TASS reported. The agency would ensure the assets were run in accordance with their importance for the economy.

"The decree does not concern ownership issues and does not deprive owners of their assets. External management is temporary in nature and means the original owner no longer has the right to make management decisions," TASS cited the agency as saying.

Last October European Council President Charles Michel said the EU was looking at using Russian assets frozen nunder sanctions against Moscow towards rebuilding Ukraine.

Asset sales by investors from unfriendly countries - as Moscow terms those that imposed sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine - require approval from a government commission and, in some cases, the president.

In February, Uniper valued its majority stake in Russian division Unipro at a symbolic one euro to reflect the likely chance a planned sale to a Russian buyer would fall through. Fortum had already warned shareholders there was a risk its Russian assets could be expropriated.

 

Over 1500 companies participating in Iran Oil Show 2023

More than 1,500 Iranian and foreign companies are participating in the 27th Iran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition (Iran Oil Show 2023), being held at the Tehran Permanent International Fairgrounds during May 17-20.

The event is being participated by the companies active in various sectors including upstream oil and gas sectors, exploration and production, as well as domestic manufacturers, knowledge-based companies, startups and other companies related to the oil industry, in addition to technology parks and universities.

“Oil Industry, Technological Production, Optimal Consumption” is the motto of this year’s event.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said that the oil and gas sector experienced a growth of 9% in the past Iranian calendar year 1401.

Oil Minister Javad Oji has recently said that a new record high will be reached in the country’s oil export in the current Iranian calendar year.

The country’s oil export in 1401 was 83 million barrels more than that of 1400, and 190 million barrels more than the export in 1399, the minister announced.

Underlining that now oil export has reached the highest figure in the last two years, the official said, “Considering that the Oil Ministry is one of the main providers of the country's foreign currency; in the 13th government, despite the tightening of cruel sanctions, fortunately, thanks to the grace of God and the efforts of our colleagues in the country's oil and gas industries, there are good records in the field of exporting crude oil, gas condensate, and petroleum and petrochemical products.”

Despite the negative impacts of the US sanctions, Iran has been ramping up its oil production and exports over the past few months.

In his remarks in November 2022, President Raisi highlighted the failure of the enemy’s policy of maximum pressure, saying the country’s oil export has reached the pre-sanction levels.

Back in January, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report put Iran’s average oil production in 2022 at 2.54 million bpd, 140,000 bpd more than the previous year.

Iran's oil production in 2021 was about 2.4 million bpd.