The Beginning of the End of US Hegemony

The leaders of China, North Korea and Russia stood shoulder to shoulder Wednesday as high-tech military hardware and thousands of marching soldiers filled the streets of Beijing. Two days earlier, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping huddled together, smiling broadly and clasping hands at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The gatherings in China this week could be read as a striking, maybe even defiant, message to the United States and its allies. At the very least, they offered yet more evidence of a burgeoning shift away from a US-dominated, Western-led world order, as President Donald Trump withdraws America from many of its historic roles and roils economic relationships with tariffs.

Will it be right to say that it is the beginning of the end of US hegemony? It is a transition from uni-polarity to multi-polarity. The US is losing its ability to act unchallenged. The world is moving towards competitive coexistence, where Washington remains powerful but will have to share space with Beijing, Moscow, and other rising centers of influence. It looks less like a sudden collapse, and more like a slow erosion of dominance.

For nearly eight decades, the United States has been the undisputed leader of the world, setting the rules of politics, trade, and security. But today, cracks in this dominance are becoming visible.

The rise of China as a technological and economic powerhouse, Russia’s defiance of Western sanctions, and the growing assertiveness of regional blocs such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are eroding Washington’s monopoly over global influence. Even long-time allies in the Middle East and Asia are quietly hedging their bets, diversifying partnerships beyond the US.

At home, the super power faces mounting challenges, a polarized political system, unsustainable debt levels, and an exhausted military stretched across multiple conflict zones. Meanwhile, the US dollar, once an untouchable pillar of global finance, is slowly facing competition from alternative payment systems. Yet, it is premature to declare the end of US power.

History suggests that hegemonies rarely fall overnight. The American era may not be over, but its golden age of unquestioned dominance is clearly behind us.

China shows power at military parade

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned the world was facing a choice between peace or war at a massive military parade in Beijing on Wednesday, flanked by Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un in an unprecedented show of force.

The event to mark 80 years since Japan's defeat at the end of World War Two was largely shunned by Western leaders, with Putin and Kim - pariahs in the West due to the Ukraine war and Kim's nuclear ambitions - the guests of honour.

Designed to project China's military might and diplomatic clout, it also comes as US President Donald Trump's tariffs and volatile policymaking strain its relations with allies and rivals alike.

"Today, mankind is faced with the choice of peace or war, dialogue or confrontation, win-win or zero-sum," Xi told a crowd of more than 50,000 spectators at Tiananmen Square, adding that the Chinese people "firmly stand on the right side of history".

Riding in an open-top limousine, Xi then inspected the troops and cutting-edge military equipment such as hypersonic missiles, underwater drones and a weaponized 'robot wolf'.

Helicopters trailing large banners and fighter jets flew in formation during a 70-minute showcase that culminated in the release of 80,000 'peace' birds.

Donning a tunic suit in the style worn by former leader Mao Zedong, Xi earlier greeted more than 25 leaders on the red carpet, including Indonesia's Prabowo Subianto who made a surprise appearance despite widespread protests at home.

Seated between Putin and Kim in the viewing gallery, Xi repeatedly engaged in conversations with both leaders as thousands of troops and materiel paraded before them. It marked the first time the trio have appeared together in public.

Putin later thanked his North Korean counterpart for his soldiers' courageous fighting in the war in Ukraine during a bilateral meeting at China's State Guesthouse. Kim said he was willing to do everything he can to help Russia.

"Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America," Trump said in a post directed at Xi on Truth Social, as the event kicked off. He also highlighted the US role in helping China secure its freedom from Japan during World War Two.

Trump had earlier told reporters he did not see the parade as a challenge to the United States. Japan's top government spokesperson declined to comment on the parade, adding Asia's top two economies were building "constructive relations".

Democratically governed Taiwan, which China considers its own, has urged its people not to attend the parade, warning that attendance could reinforce Beijing's territorial claims. Taiwan does not commemorate peace with a barrel of a gun, its President Lai Ching-te said on Wednesday in pointed criticism of the event.

Xi has cast World War Two as a major turning point in the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", in which it overcame the humiliation of Japan's invasion to become a global powerhouse.

Earlier this week, Xi unveiled his vision of a new world order at a regional security summit, calling for unity against "hegemonism and power politics", a thinly veiled swipe at his rival across the Pacific Ocean.

"Xi feels confident that the table has turned. It's China that is back in the driver's seat now," said Wen-Ti Sung, fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, based in Taiwan.

"It's been Trumpian unilateralism rather than China’s wolf warrior diplomacy when people talk about the leading source of uncertainty in the international system."

At a lavish reception after the parade at the Great Hall of the People, Xi told his guests that humanity must not return to the "law of the jungle".

Beyond the pomp and propaganda, analysts are watching whether Xi, Putin and Kim may signal closer defence relations following a pact signed by Russia and North Korea in June 2024, and a similar alliance between Beijing and Pyongyang, an outcome that may alter the military calculus in the Asia-Pacific region.

Putin has already sealed deeper energy deals with Beijing during his China visit, while the gathering has given the reclusive Kim an opportunity to gain implicit support for his banned nuclear weapons.

It has been 66 years since a North Korean leader last attended a Chinese military parade.

Kim travelled to Beijing with his daughter Ju Ae, whom South Korean intelligence consider his most likely successor, although she was not seen alongside him at the parade.

 

World military expenditure reaches new record high as European spending surges

Total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of US$2,240 billion. Military expenditure in Europe saw its steepest YoY increase in at least 30 years. The three largest spenders in 2022—the United States, China and Russia—accounted for 56% of the world total, according to new data on global military spending published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

World military spending grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 to an all-time high of US$2,240 billion. By far the sharpest rise in spending (13%) was seen in Europe and was largely accounted for by Russian and Ukrainian spending. However, military aid to Ukraine and concerns about a heightened threat from Russia strongly influenced many other states’ spending decisions, as did tensions in East Asia.

‘The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,’ said Dr Nan Tian, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.’

Military expenditure by states in Central and Western Europe totaled US$345 billion in 2022. In real terms, spending by these states for the first time surpassed that in 1989, as the cold war was ending, and was 30% higher than in 2013. Several states significantly increased their military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while others announced plans to raise spending levels over periods of up to a decade.

‘The invasion of Ukraine had an immediate impact on military spending decisions in Central and Western Europe. This included multi-year plans to boost spending from several governments,’ said Dr Diego Lopes da Silva, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. As a result, we can reasonably expect military expenditure in Central and Western Europe to keep rising in the years ahead.

Some of the sharpest increases were seen in Finland (up 36%), Lithuania (up 27%), Sweden ( up12%) and Poland (up 11%).

‘While the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 certainly affected military spending decisions in 2022, concerns about Russian aggression have been building for much longer,’ said Lorenzo Scarazzato, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘Many former Eastern bloc states have more than doubled their military spending since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea.’

Russian military spending grew by an estimated 9.2% cent in 2022, to around US$86.4 billion. This was equivalent to 4.1% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, up from 3.7% of GDP in 2021.

Numbers released by Russia in late 2022 show that spending on national defence, the largest component of Russian military expenditure, was already 34% higher, in nominal terms, than in budgetary plans drawn up in 2021.

‘The difference between Russia’s budgetary plans and its actual military spending in 2022 suggests the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia far more than it anticipated,’ said Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program.

Ukraine’s military spending reached US$44.0 billion in 2022. At 640%, this was the highest single-year increase in a country’s military expenditure ever recorded in SIPRI data. As a result of the increase and the war-related damage to Ukraine’s economy, the military burden (military spending as a share of GDP) shot up to 34% of GDP in 2022, from 3.2% in 2021.

The United States remains by far the world’s biggest military spender. US military spending reached US$877 billion in 2022, which was 39% of total global military spending and three times more than the amount spent by China, the world’s second largest spender.

The 0.7% real-terms increase in US spending in 2022 would have been even greater had it not been for the highest levels of inflation since 1981.

“The increase in the US military spending in 2022 was largely accounted for by the unprecedented level of financial military aid it provided to Ukraine,” said Dr Nan Tian, SIPRI Senior Researcher. “Given the scale of US spending, even a minor increase in percentage terms has a significant impact on the level of global military expenditure.”

US financial military aid to Ukraine totaled US$19.9 billion in 2022. Although this was the largest amount of military aid given by any country to a single beneficiary in any year since the cold war, it represented only 2.3% of total US military spending.

In 2022 the US allocated US$295 billion to military operations and maintenance, US$264 billion to procurement and research and development, and US$167 billion to military personnel.

China and Japan lead continued spending increase in Asia and Oceania. The combined military expenditure of countries in Asia and Oceania was US$575 billion. This was 2.7% more than in 2021 and 45% more than in 2013, continuing an uninterrupted upward trend dating back to at least 1989.

China remained the world’s second largest military spender, allocating an estimated US$292 billion in 2022. This was 4.2% more than in 2021 and 63% more than in 2013. China’s military expenditure has increased for 28 consecutive years.

Japan’s military spending increased by 5.9% between 2021 and 2022, reaching US$46.0 billion, or 1.1% of GDP. This was the highest level of Japanese military spending since 1960. A new national security strategy published in 2022 sets out ambitious plans to increase Japan’s military capability over the coming decade in response to perceived growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

“Japan is undergoing a profound shift in its military policy,’ said Xiao Liang, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. “The post-war restraints Japan imposed on its military spending and military capabilities seem to be loosening.”

Republicans urge Biden to veto anti-Israel UNSC resolution on Monday

Republican members of Congress are calling on President Joe Biden to veto an anti-Israel resolution expected to be brought on Monday to the United Nations Security Council and to unequivocally declare that his administration opposes such unilateral moves at the international forum.

“As the UN Security Council once again moves to consider another one-sided, biased, anti-Israel resolution, it is imperative that the United States maintain its position that only direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians can yield progress,” Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy wrote in a letter to the president that was also signed by Steve Scalise, the Majority Leader and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul.

Members of the Security Council have been negotiating a draft resolution on Israeli settlements in the West Bank drafted by the United Arab Emirates in coordination with the Palestinians.

A vote on the resolution is expected to take place on Monday amid Palestinian fears that it would be vetoed by the United States.

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas wrote, “If the UN Security Council takes action on Monday to punish Israel, President Biden should stand beside them and block the ridiculous, politically-motivated measure.”

Congressman Max Miller, a new Jewish republican from Ohio, wrote, “This resolution is the UN’s latest attack on Israel’s sovereignty. Biden must veto this measure in the Security Council and reaffirm that the United States will always stand beside our ally.”

On Saturday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss the upcoming Security Council session on the situation in the Middle East. 

During the phone call with Blinken, Abbas stressed the need to compel Israel to stop all its unilateral measures, including settlements, house demolitions, incursions into cities, villages, camps and Al-Aqsa Mosque, and killings, the PA’s official news agency Wafa said.

Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee said, "Rather than focus on grave threats posed by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the UN continues its anti-Israel obsession. Biden should stand with Israel and veto this resolution. Do not repeat the shameful Obama-Biden abstention on UNSCR 2334 in December 2016."

And Senator Jim Risch of Idaho said, “The Biden Administration must use its veto in the UN Security Council to defend our ally number one srael. This resolution will not lead to peace and only furthers anti-Israel actions at the UN."

 

China and US face changing power dynamics

According to the South China Morning Post, political events in China and America have given rise to new power dynamics. While the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress has solidified the policies of President Xi Jinping, the midterm election has further muddied the already chaotic political waters in the United States.

With an already shaky hold on some of the partners that he is courting, Biden faces a weaker position in terms of congressional support, and it remains to be seen whether that will further undermine his alliance building.

The austere choreography of Beijing’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle contrasted with the bruising political campaigns of the US midterms, which have yet to reveal how much power Republicans will have starting in January and what that will mean for President Joe Biden’s China policy or Indo-Pacific Strategy.

While the world more or less knows what to expect from Beijing, those with a stake in the success or failure of Biden’s effort to build a strategic environment that makes it tough for China will be watching closely for indications that the new US political landscape will undermine it. 

With that in mind, now might be a good time to take stock of the alliances and partnerships that Biden has built or bolstered during his first two years in office, a network of overlapping groups and policies so sprawling that they sometimes come into conflict with each other.

One of the most recent successes on this front was Canada’s decision to join Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an initiative that was initially portrayed by some as a poor substitute for the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and came under attack for its lack of a market-access component.

After a more tenuous approach to countering Beijing compared with Washington, Ottawa has taken more pointed steps that align with the Biden administration’s efforts to chip away at China’s dominance in the production of key industrial materials needed to manufacture electric vehicles and other products that are essential to meeting the world’s carbon-reduction targets.

Just this month, Canadian government ordered three Chinese companies to divest from a handful of lithium miners based in the country, after introducing tougher rules on foreign investments in the nation’s critical minerals sectors. Days later, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly accused China of adopting an increasingly disruptive stance on the world stage as she referenced her government’s eagerly awaited Indo-Pacific strategy.

Biden has also drawn closer to the European Union through the US-EU Trade and Technology Council established last year in a bid to reduce its members’ shared reliance on China’s manufacturing juggernaut, while strengthening their respective domestic supply chains involving strategic technologies.

As with NATO and the G7, Russia’s war on Ukraine managed to give that alliance an additional sense of urgency. The group announced during their second formal gathering, just weeks after the Kremlin launched its attack that trade in technologies can be pivotal to the ability of autocratic countries to implement authoritarian policies, perpetrate human rights violations and abuses, which analysts said could be used as a justification for further restrictions on certain technology exports to China.

In addition to the interest that China’s neighbours in Asia have expressed in the IPEF, Biden has also had a degree of success in shoring up military ties with the Philippines, whose relations with Washington on defence have not been as robust as they have been with Japan and South Korea. Citing concerns about China’s military modernization, US Deputy Defence Secretary Kathleen Hicks confirmed the Pentagon’s objectives on this front earlier this year.

During a meeting with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said then-president Rodrigo Duterte had decided to renew the 23-year-old Visiting Forces Agreement, which many expected Manila would opt to scrap after Duterte abrogated the accord in 2020.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, also known as the Quad, with India, Japan and Australia – revived and invigorated by Biden – also appears to strengthen Washington’s hand with respect to the country that it has identified as its most consequential geopolitical challenge.

The Quad has also taken on more significance owing to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Biden’s frustration over Beijing’s refusal to condemn the war. However, a trip by India’s foreign minister to Moscow just days ago underscored how little control the US leader may have in nurturing new alliances.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hailed New Delhi’s strong and steady relationship with Moscow lately and declared India’s intention to continue to buy Russian oil, disregarding US appeals to allies and partners to isolate Russia from the global markets.

Launched in Biden’s first year in office, Washington’s new military alliance with Britain and Australia, or Aukus, also presents uncertainties over his efforts to counter Beijing’s more assertive military posture.

While Aukus will deliver advanced nuclear submarine technology to Canberra, it has also enraged the prime minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, helping to push the island nation closer to China after it switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. 

In a United Nations speech that echoed Beijing’s rhetoric, Sogavare said that his country had been maligned over its closer relationship with China to the point of intimidation.

As all of this plays out, Republicans are preparing to take control of the House of Representatives, where California’s Kevin McCarthy will most likely become the chamber’s leader. In an indication of how cooperative McCarthy will be with the president of China, he has already dismissed the Biden administration’s effort to investigate the origins of Covid-19 with a vow to start a new probe.