China and US face changing power dynamics

According to the South China Morning Post, political events in China and America have given rise to new power dynamics. While the 20th Chinese Communist Party congress has solidified the policies of President Xi Jinping, the midterm election has further muddied the already chaotic political waters in the United States.

With an already shaky hold on some of the partners that he is courting, Biden faces a weaker position in terms of congressional support, and it remains to be seen whether that will further undermine his alliance building.

The austere choreography of Beijing’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle contrasted with the bruising political campaigns of the US midterms, which have yet to reveal how much power Republicans will have starting in January and what that will mean for President Joe Biden’s China policy or Indo-Pacific Strategy.

While the world more or less knows what to expect from Beijing, those with a stake in the success or failure of Biden’s effort to build a strategic environment that makes it tough for China will be watching closely for indications that the new US political landscape will undermine it. 

With that in mind, now might be a good time to take stock of the alliances and partnerships that Biden has built or bolstered during his first two years in office, a network of overlapping groups and policies so sprawling that they sometimes come into conflict with each other.

One of the most recent successes on this front was Canada’s decision to join Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), an initiative that was initially portrayed by some as a poor substitute for the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and came under attack for its lack of a market-access component.

After a more tenuous approach to countering Beijing compared with Washington, Ottawa has taken more pointed steps that align with the Biden administration’s efforts to chip away at China’s dominance in the production of key industrial materials needed to manufacture electric vehicles and other products that are essential to meeting the world’s carbon-reduction targets.

Just this month, Canadian government ordered three Chinese companies to divest from a handful of lithium miners based in the country, after introducing tougher rules on foreign investments in the nation’s critical minerals sectors. Days later, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly accused China of adopting an increasingly disruptive stance on the world stage as she referenced her government’s eagerly awaited Indo-Pacific strategy.

Biden has also drawn closer to the European Union through the US-EU Trade and Technology Council established last year in a bid to reduce its members’ shared reliance on China’s manufacturing juggernaut, while strengthening their respective domestic supply chains involving strategic technologies.

As with NATO and the G7, Russia’s war on Ukraine managed to give that alliance an additional sense of urgency. The group announced during their second formal gathering, just weeks after the Kremlin launched its attack that trade in technologies can be pivotal to the ability of autocratic countries to implement authoritarian policies, perpetrate human rights violations and abuses, which analysts said could be used as a justification for further restrictions on certain technology exports to China.

In addition to the interest that China’s neighbours in Asia have expressed in the IPEF, Biden has also had a degree of success in shoring up military ties with the Philippines, whose relations with Washington on defence have not been as robust as they have been with Japan and South Korea. Citing concerns about China’s military modernization, US Deputy Defence Secretary Kathleen Hicks confirmed the Pentagon’s objectives on this front earlier this year.

During a meeting with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said then-president Rodrigo Duterte had decided to renew the 23-year-old Visiting Forces Agreement, which many expected Manila would opt to scrap after Duterte abrogated the accord in 2020.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, also known as the Quad, with India, Japan and Australia – revived and invigorated by Biden – also appears to strengthen Washington’s hand with respect to the country that it has identified as its most consequential geopolitical challenge.

The Quad has also taken on more significance owing to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Biden’s frustration over Beijing’s refusal to condemn the war. However, a trip by India’s foreign minister to Moscow just days ago underscored how little control the US leader may have in nurturing new alliances.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hailed New Delhi’s strong and steady relationship with Moscow lately and declared India’s intention to continue to buy Russian oil, disregarding US appeals to allies and partners to isolate Russia from the global markets.

Launched in Biden’s first year in office, Washington’s new military alliance with Britain and Australia, or Aukus, also presents uncertainties over his efforts to counter Beijing’s more assertive military posture.

While Aukus will deliver advanced nuclear submarine technology to Canberra, it has also enraged the prime minister of the Solomon Islands, Manasseh Sogavare, helping to push the island nation closer to China after it switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. 

In a United Nations speech that echoed Beijing’s rhetoric, Sogavare said that his country had been maligned over its closer relationship with China to the point of intimidation.

As all of this plays out, Republicans are preparing to take control of the House of Representatives, where California’s Kevin McCarthy will most likely become the chamber’s leader. In an indication of how cooperative McCarthy will be with the president of China, he has already dismissed the Biden administration’s effort to investigate the origins of Covid-19 with a vow to start a new probe.

Indian Last Minute Diplomatic Boycott of Beijing Olympics

India announced a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics on February 03, 2022 after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) picked a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldier involved in a bloody 2020 conflict with India as a torchbearer in the Games’ torch relay. 

India’s state broadcaster also decided to not telecast the opening and the closing ceremonies of the Games as a result.

“It is indeed regrettable that the Chinese side has chosen to politicize an event like the Olympics … the Charge d’Affaires of the Embassy of India in Beijing will not be attending the opening or the closing ceremony of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics,” said Arindam Bagchi, the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs on Thursday.

The Indian government was considering sending its top diplomat to Beijing to attend the opening of the games until this week, but then Beijing made a PLA regiment commander, Qi Fabao, a torchbearer of the games on Wednesday, irking India. Qi had been involved in a violent border clash with Indian soldiers in the Himalaya’s Galwan Valley in June 2020.

New Delhi had earlier decided to set aside its problems with China following a meeting between the foreign ministers of India, Russia, and China in November, and supported the Games that were boycotted by many countries including the United States.

This was because traditionally India doesn’t believe in politicalizing sports events and has never boycotted one since its existence, according to Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

But India was blindsided when Qi who had sustained head injuries during the Galwan clash took the flame from Wang Meng, China’s four-time Olympic short-track speed skating champion. While doing so both “made military salutes to each other,” reported Chinese state media Global Times.

“The inclusion of a PLA soldier who tried to kill Indian soldiers at Galwan in 2020 in the Olympic torch relay was a provocative act that triggered the decision to boycott,” Madhav Nalapat, strategic analyst and vice-chair of the Manipal Advanced Research Group, told The Epoch Times.

To India, Qi’s participation is a politicization of the Games because the only criteria of his selection as a torchbearer was his involvement in Galwan conflict, said Kondapalli of Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Frank Lehberger, a sinologist specializing in CCP policies and a senior fellow at the Indian think tank Usanas Foundation, told The Epoch Times that long before the Olympics started he expected China to “concoct some symbolisms” to humiliate India during the Olympics as revenge for PLA’s “humiliating defeat at Galwan Valley.”

The Galwan conflict, which took place in the Himalayan border region for eight hours on June 15, 2020, claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers. The hand-to-hand combat involved PLA soldiers attacking Indians with iron rods and batons wrapped in barbed wire.

After refusing to disclose its casualty count for eight months, the CCP admitted in February 2021 to losing four soldiers, when ahead of Party’s 100 anniversary, it announced military honors posthumously for them.

However, an investigative report citing findings from a group of social media researchers published by Australian media outlet The Klaxon on Wednesday said that China lost 38 soldiers, mostly drowning in the sub-zero temperature waters of the Galwan River.

The PLA soldiers honored with the “July 01 medal” in 2021 were a part of 29 CCP members honored on the occasion. The July 1 medal is a decoration bestowed by the Party’s paramount leader on those members of the CCP who make outstanding contributions to the Party in “China’s revolution, reform, and opening up” according to CGTN, the overseas arm of China’s state broadcaster.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who awarded the medals in a ceremony held in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on June 29, 2021, said the recipients had “staunch faith.”

Global Times reported at the time that having staunch faith “is to stay true to the original aspiration and dedicate everything, even the precious life, to the cause of the Party and people.”

Lehberger said India should have understood the CCP’s character and seen this coming. “And India’s reluctance joining the boycott earlier was understood by the Chinese side as the signal that they could act in even more provocative way,” he said.

Satoru Nagao, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute told The Epoch Times that only 25 countries are attending the opening ceremony and most of them are “non-democratic” countries, adding that India’s decision to diplomatically boycott the Games was “good.”

“For China, admiring its soldiers is far more important than respecting India, because India is an enemy for China. Soldiers are fighting the enemy, India. China showed that it is respecting soldiers who are fighting the enemy India,” said Nagao.

This incident is not the first time the CCP has used the Galwan conflict to send a message. Over the New Year, various Chinese state media shared videos of PLA soldiers raising a CCP’s red flag at Galwan Valley.

And on December 29, 2021 the Chinese announced “standardized” Chinese names for 15 places in Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian state on the border with Bhutan and Burma that the Chinese regime has attempted to claim and aggressively intruded upon in the past few decades.

“It shows that Chinese nationalism is directed against India,” said Kondapalli, adding that there’s a need to watch out to see if this portends more aggression towards India in the future.

China will next host the 2022 Asian Games in Hangzhou in eastern China’s Zhejiang Province from September 10 to 25.