United States no more dependent on Saudi oil

The US energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a record 17 months in a row as higher prices lured some drillers back to the well-pad after last year's coronavirus-driven decline in demand.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, was unchanged at 586 in the week ended December 31, 2021 energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday.

During December 2021, the total rig count rose by 17 and for the quarter the count was up 65, its fifth increase in a row. For the year the count was up 235. This was against a decrease of 454 rigs in 2020 and a decline of 278 rigs in 2019.

Even though the rig count has been rising for a record 17 months in a row, analysts noted production was still expected to ease as energy firms continue to focus more on returning money to investors than boosting output.

US oil rigs were steady at 480 during the week under review, while gas rigs were also unchanged at 106.

US crude futures traded around US$75 per barrel on Friday, putting the contract on track for its best month since February 2021.

With oil prices up about 55% this year, the best yearly performance since 2009 - some energy firms boost spending in 2021 and continue to do the same in 2022. They had cut drilling and completion expenditures in 2019 and 2020.

That spending increase was small and much of the money was spent on completing wells that were drilled in the past. This is termed DUC (drilled but uncompleted) wells.

Most firms continue to focus on boosting cash flow, reducing debt and increasing shareholder returns rather than adding output.

US oil production is estimated to have declined to 11.2 million bpd in 2021 from 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020. However, output is likely to rise to 11.9 million bpd in 2022 according to government projections. The all-time annual high of 12.3 million bpd was achieved in 2019.

 

Cuba signs Belt and Road agreement with China

Reportedly Cuba and China have signed a cooperation plan to push forward construction projects under Beijing’s overseas infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The Chinese Embassy in Cuba announced the agreement on its website on December 26, 2021 saying that the deal was inked two days earlier by He Lifeng, Head of China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, and Cuban Vice Prime Minister Ricardo Cabrisas.

The agreement implemented a memorandum of understanding the two nations signed in 2018, when Cuba agreed to become a BRI participating nation.

Under the agreement, the two nations aimed to work together on projects in several key sectors, including communications, education, health and biotechnology, science and technology, and tourism, according to the Agencia Cubana de Noticias news agency.

The Chinese Embassy also stated that a timetable and a roadmap had been proposed to implement the projects, without giving details.

China launched the BRI in 2013 in an effort to build Beijing-centered land and maritime trade networks by financing infrastructure projects throughout Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. In recent years, critics have denounced Beijing for using “debt-trap diplomacy” to lure countries into its initiative.

Many countries have surrendered pieces of their sovereignty after failing to pay off Chinese debts. For example, China Merchants Port Holdings is now running Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port on a 99-year lease, after the South Asian country converted its owed loans of US$1.4 billion into equity in 2017. Seizing the port has allowed Beijing to gain a key foothold in the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese regime has also sought to partner with countries rich in natural resources—such as African BRI participants Ghana and Zambia—in order to gain access to these raw materials to drive the Chinese economy.

It appears that China has its eyes set on Cuba’s natural resources, as a Chinese researcher told China’s state-run media outlet Global Times on December 26 that the BRI agreement was good because China and Cuba “have strong economic complementarities.”

The researcher was quoted as saying that “Cuba is rich in mineral and oil resources, and is a major source of nickel ore for China.” Cuba has one of the world’s largest nickel deposits in the world.

China has been Cuba’s important energy partner. Chinese companies have supplied wind turbines to Cuba’s wind farms and overseen the construction of Cuba’s first biomass-fired power plant at Ciro Redondo.

The US-based organization American Security Project, in an article published in March, warned about Cuba’s energy dependency on China and Venezuela as having “serious implications for hemispheric security.”

In addition, the Chinese paramilitary has also provided “counter-terrorism” training to the Cuban military and police forces responsible for suppressing anti-government protesters.

In fact, China has an ambition that goes beyond just Cuba. During a Senate hearing in March, Craig Faller, a retired admiral and a former commander of the US Southern Command, warned that Beijing seeks to “establish global logistics and basing infrastructure in our hemisphere in order to project and sustain military power at greater distances.”

Faller told lawmakers at the hearing that China was on a “full-court press” in order to achieve its ambition.

“I look at this hemisphere as the front line of competition,” Faller said. “Our influence [in this hemisphere] is eroding. … It is important that we remain engaged in this hemisphere.”

During a press briefing following the hearing, Faller described the Chinese regime’s influence as “insidious,” “corrosive,” and “corrupt.”

“Some examples include their pursuit of multiple port deals, loans for political leverage, vaccine diplomacy that undermines sovereignty, state surveillance IT, and the exploitation of resources such as illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing,” Faller said.

A month after Faller’s warning Stephanie Murphy introduced a bill requiring several US federal agencies, including the State Department, to put together a report for Congress. The report would assess China’s influence in Latin America and the Caribbean.

One of the issues the report would examine is China’s relationship with Cuba and Venezuela. Another is China’s efforts to exploit natural resources in the region.

“It is critical for US policymakers to understand what China is doing in the region and to have an effective strategy in place to counter China’s aggressive conduct and to hold the Chinese Communist Party accountable for its actions,” Murphy said, according to a statement from her office.

 

Putin advises United States to stay away from Ukraine

Speaking to journalists at his annual end-of-year press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about a wide range of domestic and foreign policy issues that have dominated Russian headlines over the past 12 months. 

Top of the agenda was tension with NATO that has seen a dramatic escalation recently. Putin stressed that meetings alone (with NATO or the United States) will not be enough for the Kremlin for the tensions to ease insisting “we don’t care about negotiations, we want results, not an inch to the East they told us in the 1990s, and look what happened – they cheated us, vehemently and blatantly.”

Last week, Moscow sent documents to the US and NATO seeking assurances that the Western forces and their advanced military hardware will not expand further eastwards towards Russian borders in a bid to ease the friction between the two sides. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov informed that talks between Russian and US officials will be held early next year. Putin pointed out “now they’re saying that (NATO) will have Ukraine as well. This means they will deploy their weapons in Ukraine, even if it's not officially part of NATO.” According to the Russian leader, it is now up to the North Atlantic Alliance to “immediately” come up with guarantees as opposed to just “talking about it for decades.”

The Russian leader has long maintained that Western officials had always promised that NATO forces would not seek to fill the void that was left behind following the fall of the Warsaw Pact, but it instead went ahead with making Eastern bloc nations such as Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, and Poland NATO members. There is a concern in Russia of NATO stationing missiles in non-member state Ukraine which will essentially allow NATO to reduce “their flight time to Moscow to seven-to-ten minutes, and if hypersonic weapons are deployed, to just five.” Russia has warned it will prevent such threats.

There is a concern in Russia of NATO stationing missiles in non-member state Ukraine. The Russian President said it was important to “calculate the risks of such a war, even if it is the result of a provocation.” According to Putin much of Ukraine is historically “Russian lands with Russian populations that were cut off from Russia” by the fall of the Soviet Union. “We accepted this” he noted. “We helped new states to grow and worked with all governments no matter their foreign policy. Remember our relations with [President Viktor] Yushenko and [Prime Minister Yulia] Timoshenko? Just like today’s leadership, they were speaking about pro-West orientations. We talked with them, we had certain arguments and conflicts, about gas and so on, but we managed to engage in a dialogue and we worked with them and were ready to go on, and we didn’t even think about doing anything regarding Crimea.”

Among the other highlights of the press conference, Putin touched on his country’s ties with Asian superpower China. He forecasted that within the next three decades, China will surpass the United States in every aspect of its economy, predicting that Washington will lose its global dominance in both finance and trade. He said “today, China’s economy is already larger than America’s in terms of purchasing power parity.” According to Putin, “by 2035-2050 it will have surpassed the US and China will become the leading economy in the world according to all metrics.”

The Russian president accused the West of working to undermine the world’s most populous nation and with attempts to hold back its economic growth. He says efforts such as the US-led boycott of the 2022 Olympic Games in Beijing purportedly over alleged human rights abuses is a false attempt to try and ensure China “cannot raise its head” above its competitors. Putin strongly rebuked the move as “unacceptable and erroneous,” and an “attempt to restrain the development of the People’s Republic of China.” 

This month, Putin and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping held a virtual meeting amid escalating tensions between the two nations on one hand and the West on the other. Following the talks, Moscow said that both sides agreed to initiate a combined financial mechanism to lessen independence on U.S.-controlled platforms. Experts say the measure appears to be in response to a series of warnings that the West may press ahead with plans to disconnect Russia from the international SWIFT financial system as a form of punitive measure.

During the press conference, Putin said China is Russia’s number-one partner, pointing out that “we have very trusting relations and it helps us build good business ties as well.”
He says “we are cooperating in the field of security. The Chinese Army is equipped to a significant extent with the world’s most advanced weapons systems. We are even developing certain high-tech weapons together,” Putin also praised his Chinese counterpart and “friend”, Xi Jinping, saying “we have very trusting relations and it helps us build good business ties as well.” 

Once again, Putin rejected claims that Russia is deliberately choking off supplies of gas to Western Europe in an effort to put pressure on the EU not to block the Moscow-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The project, which has been completed, is awaiting certification from German regulators. The President strongly denied such allegations, which have previously been leveled at the Kremlin by Washington and a number of mainstream western news outlets. “Of course, it’s not [true]. They are lying all the time, Gazprom is delivering the volume [of gas] requested by its partners in full, in accordance with existing contracts.”

He added, “Russia is not the only supplier to the European market. But we’re probably the only ones who are increasing deliveries; there were adverse weather conditions last year. Not enough gas was pumped into storage. Wind turbines didn’t work. All this has created a deficit.”

Asked about opposition figure Alexey Navalny, who is currently serving a prison sentence, Putin said that it was time to move on from the matter. He says the Russian prosecutor’s office had not received even one document supporting accusations that he was poisoned with Novichok before being taken ill on a flight to Moscow.

Putin told reporters “There is no need to talk about it” simply telling reporters “Let’s move on.” The Western-backed activist was taken ill shortly after his plane took off from the Siberian city of Tomsk. He was taken to hospital and, following requests from his family, was then flown (oddly enough) to Berlin and treated in a clinic there. Doctors in Germany later claimed that Navalny had been infected with the toxic nerve agent made headlines in the West but Moscow’s requests for samples or evidence to back up the allegations fell on deaf ears.

Earlier this year, in another twist, Navalny returned to Russia, with the full knowledge that he would more than likely be jailed for breaking the conditions of a suspended sentence handed down to him in 2014 when he was found guilty of embezzling US$415,000 from two different firms. He was later handed a sentence of two years and eight months for breaking the law. 

In front of Russian journalists as well as reporters from around the world; Putin touched on many other issues such as the coronavirus, economy, and Russia’s declining population, but his comments on NATO and China will likely dominate the headlines for the foreseeable future.

 

Israel hits Syrian port for second time this month

According to Reuters, Israel launched an air strike on Syria's main port of Latakia on Tuesday in the second such attack this month, setting ablaze the container storage area.

Official Syrian reports made no mention of any casualties. A source familiar with the operations of the Port, was quoted saying the strike hit a container area where allegedly large consignments of Iranian munitions were stored.

"These blasts and huge fires were caused by the explosions from the munitions stored in a warehouse close to commercial cargo," the source who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter told Reuters.

Syrian state news agency SANA quoted the head of the Latakia fire brigade as saying the containers targeted in the strike contained oils and spare parts for machines and cars.

Israel has mounted frequent attacks against what it says are Iranian targets in Syria, where Tehran-backed forces led by Lebanon's Hezbollah have deployed over the last decade in support of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's civil war.

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, visiting an Israeli air-force base did not speak about the specific incident on Tuesday but warned his country would not allow Iran to use Syria to threaten Israel.

"I call upon the region's countries to stop Iran from violating their sovereignty and people. Israel will not allow Iran to funnel balance-breaching weapons to its proxies and threaten our citizens," Gantz said.

Another source alleged Tehran had in recent months transferred weapons by sea as it sought to dodge intensified Israeli strikes that struck eastern Syria near a weapons supply corridor along the border with Iraq.

The drone strikes disabled several large weapons convoys sent by Tehran from Iraq, he added in information confirmed by a Western intelligence source.

Iran has expanded its military presence in Syria in recent years where it now has a foothold in most state-controlled areas where thousands of its militias and local paramilitary groups are under its command, Western intelligence sources say.

Citing a military source, SANA said Israel had carried out the air strike targeting the container storage area causing a fire leading to "big material damages".

Fire fighters were working to extinguish the blaze, said Head of the Latakia fire brigade and. Syrian state TV footage showed flames and smoke in the container area.

Citing its correspondent, state-run broadcaster al-Ikhbariya said a number of residential buildings, a hospital and a number of shops and tourist facilities had been damaged by the power of the blasts.

Russia, which has been Assad's most powerful ally during the war, operates an air base at Hmeimim some 20 kms away from Latakia.

 

US war mongering to touch new highs

On Monday Joe Biden, President of United States signed a sweeping US$768 billion defense policy bill, setting up top lines and policy for the Pentagon. Biden signed the fiscal 2022 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) after Congress scrambled to pass the annual bill earlier this month.

In a statement, the president said, “The bill provides vital benefits and enhances access to justice for military personnel and their families, and includes critical authorities to support our country’s national defense.”

The House passed the bill by an overwhelmingly bipartisan 363-70 vote in early December, and the Senate later passed the bill by a bipartisan 88-11 vote. 

Rep. Adam Smith, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement that there’s a lot to be proud of in this bill.

The US$768.2 billion compromise bill came after efforts to pass an earlier version of the bill in the Senate hit several snags, including failures to reach agreements on which amendments would receive floor votes.

The NDAA provides US$740 billion for the Department of Defense, which is US$25 billion more than what the president requested for the agency for fiscal 2022.  It also includes US$27.8 billion for defense-related activities in the Department of Energy and another US$378 million for other defense-related activities. 

While passing the NDAA is an important step, the measure does not authorize any spending; meaning Congress still needs to pass an appropriations bill.

Earlier this month, Congress passed a short-term continuing resolution which funds the government through Feb. 18.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said earlier this month that passing a full-year continuing resolution, as opposed to a full-year appropriations bill, would be an unprecedented move that would cause enormous, if not irreparable, damage for a wide range of bipartisan priorities." 

Sen. Patrick Leahy, Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, had warned that a full-year continuing resolution would put defense spending at US$35 billion less than what the NDAA provides for.

“We can all stand up here on the Senate floor and back at home, declaring our unwavering support for our troops and their families, and claiming to support a strong national defense, but until we put our money where our mouth is and provide the funding we say we support, those words ring hollow,” Leahy said in a statement. 

Among its provisions, the NDAA includes a 2.7 percent increase in military basic pay, which the White House recommended.

This year’s defense policy bill also includes major changes to how the military prosecutes certain crimes, like sexual assault. For those crimes, like rape, murder and manslaughter, the decision to prosecute would be made outside of the chain of command.

However, commanders would still have authority to conduct trials, pick jury members, approve witnesses and grant immunity.

The bill also weighs in on the military’s vaccine mandate, directing that service members who are discharged for not getting the COVID-19 vaccine get at least a general discharge under honorable conditions. 

But in his statement, Biden pointed to several provisions in the bill that he was against. Among them, he urged Congress to eliminate provisions that restrict the use of funds to transfer detainees at Guantanamo Bay.

He also opposed provisions that require sharing with Congress information regarding the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the threat of Iranian-backed militias to US personnel in Iraq and the Middle East.

The measures would include highly sensitive classified information, Biden said, that could reveal critical intelligence sources or military operational plans.

 

Gaza groups getting ready to face growing tension in West Bank

According to a report by The Jerusalem Post, the military wings of several Palestinian factions have launched a large-scale, joint maneuver in the Gaza Strip. This became evident amid growing tensions in the West Bank after Hamas and other Gaza-based factions called for stepping up attacks against Israel.

The move was made in the wake of unconfirmed reports that Egyptian mediation efforts to prevent an all-out military confrontation between the Palestinian groups and Israel have failed.

The maneuver, the second of its kind aims to raise military readiness for a possible confrontation with Israel and increase coordination between the factions, according to the “Joint Room of the Palestinian Resistance Factions,” which includes most of the armed groups in the Gaza Strip.

The maneuver will continue for several days at training sites, it said in a statement. At least 12 groups were taking part in the exercise, Palestinian sources said.

Earlier this month, Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, held a military exercise called Shield of Jerusalem. The drill was held to mark the 34th anniversary of the founding of Hamas.

Late last year, the Gaza-based groups held a similar joint exercise in the Gaza Strip to exchange expertise and enhance combat preparedness.

The latest joint maneuver came one week after the armed wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) said they had reached an agreement to strengthen the resistance against Israel and increase coordination between the two groups. Hamas and PIJ praised the growing attacks against Israelis in the West Bank and Jerusalem, saying they came in response to settler terrorism and crimes of the Zionist occupation soldiers.

The groups also expressed full support for all forms of attacks against Israel.

Over the past two weeks, senior Hamas and PIJ officials held a series of meetings in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon to discuss preparations for a possible military confrontation with Israel.

Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and PIJ Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who met in Beirut two weeks ago, issued a joint statement in which they agreed on the importance of strengthening the resistance especially in the West Bank. 

They emphasized their adherence to the option of resistance as the only way to confront the occupation, liberate the land and restore rights of Palestinians.

Mustafa al-Sawwaf, a Hamas-affiliated political analyst, said the meetings and the joint maneuver aims to send a warning to Israel that the groups are ready to repel any aggression on the Gaza Strip.

 “This could be the last warning before the explosion,” he told the Quds News Network, adding that the warning was also directed toward the Egyptians, who have been acting as mediators to avoid another war in the Gaza Strip.

Mohammed Abu Askar, a senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip, said the joint exercise was aimed at sending a message to Israel that the Palestinian factions are ready for a military confrontation.

Another Hamas official, Zaher Jabarin, said the West Bank is witnessing a massive popular uprising.  The Palestinians are ready to make sacrifices until they achieve victory, he said.

The Palestinian Authority, meanwhile, said the Palestinians will not allow the continued aggressions of the occupation and its settlers in the West Bank.

PA presidential spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudaineh accused Israel of playing with fire, adding that the situation in the West Bank has become unacceptable and intolerable.

The Palestinians possess all the means to defend their rights, and their capabilities and determination should not be underestimated, he said.

Abu Rudeineh said more than 250 Palestinians were injured in violent clashes with soldiers and settlers in the northern West Bank over the past 24 hours.

He also criticized the international community for remaining silent in the face of these repeated crimes.

Hussein al-Sheikh, Head of the PA’s General Authority of Civil Affairs and a member of the Fatah Central Committee, called on the international community to provide immediate protection for the Palestinians, who are being killed and are having their homes and lands burned by organized racist gangs.

The PA Foreign Affairs Ministry said it was astonished by the failure of the international community to speak out against the violence by the IDF and settlers.

The clashes that erupted in the village of Burka in the northern West Bank over the past two days prove that international protection for the Palestinians has become a necessity, the ministry said.

Does United States have a role in drone attacks in Yemen?

The world is fully aware of US drone attacks in Afghanistan, but most of the people have been kept unaware of US drone attacks in Yemen. Lately I read somewhere that the number of known and suspected US drone strikes in Yemen has dropped from dozens each year to single digits in 2021, these are still conducted.

The author mentioned that his uncle and cousin were collateral damage in the US assaults. To date, the US has not admitted to, much less apologized for, their deaths. His uncle Salem, was an imam who denounced Al Qaeda and mobilized resistance against them. His cousin, Waleed, was the sole police officer in the village. The author was with them moments before the first missile hit on August 29, 2012. The second missile followed immediately. There was fire everywhere and the sky turned black. As people ran towards the site of the strike, the third and fourth rockets exploded. Everything went dark.

The fact that President Biden declared an end to the “forever wars” and in almost the same breath promised further strikes is a reminder of how easily my loved ones and other victims of the forever drone wars are forgotten. The secrecy surrounding the program indicates that many of the names are often never even reported. The recent revelation that the US airstrike killed dozens of civilians in Syria is just one example of many.

He wrote, “I still have nightmares about being unable to protect my children from rockets. My wife wakes screaming her father’s name. But drones don’t just haunt our dreams, they hover over our villages. We stay close to home so when we hear the phantom buzz, we can quickly bundle our children inside. We turn on the radio to try to drown out the noise – and the fear.”

After recently killing ten members of a family in Afghanistan, the U.S. apologized and offered compensation. This was far from the first time a US drone had wiped out an entire family, though. There has never been apologies and compensation for the rest of the people.

What people have learnt is that when the media cycle moves on, the strikes continue as if the damage never happened. Faces are forgotten. And the killing continues with impunity. Nobody is held accountable. Nobody stops to ask: how long can this go on? 

President Biden is reportedly still carrying out a review of the program – a review that has now taken ten months and counting. Yet nobody has sought to interview me about my experiences. No official from this administration – or any previous administration – has ever asked me about Salem and Waleed, and the hole their deaths have left in our in our community.

For years the families have sought answers and accountability. With support from the human rights organization Reprieve, uncle of author Faisal travelled to the United States to address Congress in 2013.

A leaked memo confirmed that US officials knew Salem and Waleed were civilians. Still there was no official acknowledgement of the strike. When Faisal took the United States to court seeking only an apology, US officials fought against him. The court held they could not hear his case because the killing was a “political question.” 

Judge Janice Rogers Brown wrote the killing of Salem and Waleed was a sign that US democracy was “broken” and congressional oversight over the program was “a joke,” highlighting the high number of civilians killed by the program. She also noted that in other democracies, courts have oversight over military action ordered by the executive. 

He continued, “A few months ago, Muznah phoned me begging me to come home because there was a drone overhead. I rushed back to find her huddled over our children, crying as she tried to shield them. The drone didn’t strike that day. But it could have. And it is this ever-present terror that traumatizes and makes normal life impossible.”

People feel overwhelming fear and anxiety for the future of my children. They deserve so much better. They want them to be able to go about their lives – to move around their home and village freely, without fear. To be able to watch fireworks not drone strikes. They don’t want their families to cry every time they hear a drone. They want their children to live in peace. They want America’s forever wars to be forever, truly over.

 

Russia-India ties face many odds

The year 2021 may prove to be an important milestone in the evolution of strategic relations between Russia and India. On December 06, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into New Delhi on a one day state visit. 

The one-on-one meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which lasted three and a half hours, was aimed at restoring confidence between the two powers as time-proven and trusted strategic partners.

For Putin, the trip to India was only his second overseas visit since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic (the other was the first meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden in Geneva). That fact alone signifies the importance of India to the Kremlin and the desire to keep relations close. But Putin’s brief visit to New Delhi was just part of broader high-level bilateral talks, which included an impressive entourage representing both countries.

The last time Putin and Modi met was in 2019 during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. After that, the two leaders avoided their interactions. The reason, they claimed, was the Covid-19 outbreak.

The relationship had been cooling long before Covid-19 struck. New Delhi felt that Moscow was taking advantage of India, playing upon its fears of China. The case of India’s purchase of a modified Russian cruiser turned aircraft carrier is one example. It led India’s comptroller and auditor-general to lament that India had paid 60% more for a second-hand aircraft carrier than a new one would have cost. Admiral Arun Prakash, a former chief of the Indian naval staff, was equally scathing in his evaluation of the Russian MiG-29K aircraft that were to be used on the aircraft carrier.

Russia, for its part, was unhappy with India’s growing ties with the United States. Between 2007 and 2020, India spent more than US$17 billion on military purchases from the US. Russia was particularly unhappy that India had entered into four ‘foundational’ security agreements with the US that cover the transfer of military information, logistics exchanges, compatibility and security.

At the same time, Russia’s relationship with China was growing through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its ties to the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which was established to ensure the security of the Soviet Union’s successor states. Russia and China, seeing the US as a common antagonist, collaborated on technology transfers, Russia’s sale of energy products to China, and increased trade and tourism. They also engaged in joint military exercises and naval and air patrols.

That said, there remains the suspicion that Moscow is ‘passively facilitating’ New Delhi’s role in the Quad in order to restore equality in its strategic relations with Beijing. That could help revive, in turn, its stalled ‘new détente’ with the West.

India is suspicious of Russia’s developing relationship with Pakistan. New Delhi worries that Moscow is hyphenating its relationships with its two neighbouring enemies. That suspicion grew when Russia didn’t invite India to a meeting it convened with China, Pakistan and the US on the Afghanistan situation, a move that was seen as a deliberate snub in New Delhi.

India needs the potential security that Russia can provide. Little wonder, then, that it was prepared to purchase the S-400 air-defence system from Russia despite US pressure not to, and to offer an invitation to Putin to visit India, which he accepted.

The two countries launched ‘2+2’ ministerial consultations involving their foreign and defence ministers, making Russia the fourth partner with which India has the same format (the other three Quad members are Australia, Japan and the US).

They also signed another 10-year agreement on joint military–technical cooperation until 2031 and agreed to expand and deepen bilateral defence cooperation. Adding to that, Russia has reaffirmed its position as one of the principal providers of advanced military technology to the Indian military. Since 1991, India has acquired a comprehensive suite of weapons and platforms for all its fighting services worth some US$70 billion. The current value of India’s defence contracts with Russia is approximately US$15 billion.

Perhaps one of the most important outcomes for Russia was India’s reassurance that it is not siding with US strategic plans to form a regional political–military containment bloc. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Indians ‘distanced themselves from the AUKUS bloc’. He said, ‘They are part of the Quad group, which brings together India, Japan, Australia and the US, and India … emphasises its interest in economic infrastructure and transport projects within this framework.’

Clearly, the talks didn’t eradicate all contentious points in the relationship. India is likely to remain concerned about Russia’s ties to China, Pakistan and the Taliban. Despite ambitious goals, the bilateral economic relationship won’t reach the levels of the ones that India enjoys with the US and China.

Even in the defence cooperation sphere, which is at the core of Russia–India strategic ties, some issues persist. For example, the two countries failed to finalize the reciprocal logistics support agreement, which was supposed to become an important stepping stone in closer military-to-military interaction.

The meetings in New Delhi came less than a week after the visit to Moscow of the president of Vietnam, a country with which Russia developed a comprehensive strategic partnership a decade ago. Both events highlight Russia’s more flexible approach towards its strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific, despite the centrality of China in Russia’s Asia policy.

Putin’s meeting with Modi took place a day before the Russian president had his second major interaction with Biden, and just days before the US-led Summit for Democracy, to which Moscow was not invited. For Putin, it was important to show Washington and Brussels that Russia has a network of strategic partners it can call upon.

Recognizing that and Russia’s importance to India, New Delhi has tried to show Moscow that it’s not drifting away from the relationship. New Delhi recognizes that Moscow can’t fully trust Beijing, which makes the Indo-Russian relationship all the more important. India’s purchase of the S-400 missile system despite US pressure was meant to send exactly that message. The launch of the 2+2 ministerial consultations is likely to ease Russia’s concerns that New Delhi has been gradually drifting towards the US geopolitical orbit, confirming that India is ‘not in anyone’s camp’.

Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight train service

The Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul (ITI) railway project, or ECO freight train, was inaugurated with the first freight train moving on Tuesday during a ceremony attended by Iranian and Pakistani officials.

Pakistani Minister for Railways Azam Khan Swati, along with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and Adviser to the Prime Minister on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood inaugurated the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul freight train at Margalla railway station, in Islamabad.

Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Seyed Mohammad Ali Hosseini, as well as the ambassadors of Turkey, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan to Pakistan, in addition to the representative of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) were also present at the ceremony.

Addressing the ceremony, the Pakistani minister for railways said, "Launching of the container train from Pakistan to Iran and Turkey was a long-standing dream of the countries of the region, which has come true again”.

Terming the ITI freight train an important milestone in Pakistan’s history, the minister said that business-to-business contact among the business community would further enhance through this train. He said the service would further strengthen relations between the three countries.

Also, Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi appreciated the resumption of ITI freight train and said the service would play an important role in regional connectivity and promoting economic activity in the region.

Adviser to the Prime Minister of Pakistan on Commerce Abdul Razak Dawood, for his part, said that ECO train as one of the most effective vehicles can help in expanding exports, imports and trade between member countries.

The length of the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul railway is 6,500 km, of which 2,570 km is in Iran, 2,000 km in Turkey and about 1,900 km in Pakistan, which takes less than half the shipping time and will also be safer and more economical as compared to road.

ITI freight train will be operated regularly on Tuesday of every week. The freight train had nine wagons initially, said a senior railway official.

As per present arrangement to start the train and the schedule agreed jointly by Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, the running time between Drence-Kapikoy (Istanbul) and Zahedan-Tabraiz (Iran) will be 90 hours each. From Zahedan to Islamabad, the train would take 135.5 hours.

 

Is two state solution the only option for peace in Middle East?

Lately, former adviser to Benjamin Netanyahu, Mark Regev, wrote about how the two-state solution is problematic when you have the Palestinians refusing to accept the legitimacy of a Jewish state. He’s not wrong, but he’s also not providing realistic solutions for what that means.

It is becoming evident that there is no alternative to the two-state solution unless you either support an apartheid state, or don’t care about having a Jewish majority state. The only option for the survival of a Jewish and democratic state of Israel is a two-state solution where compromises will have to be made for peace.

Both Israelis and Palestinians are refusing to accept reality when it comes to a long-term solution, and in doing so, they have made it even more complicated and unpleasant to find a lasting agreement that respects the rights to self-determination of both peoples.

Palestinian rejectionism is the core reason for the lack of peace and a long-term solution. It is absolutely true that Palestinians have refused every opportunity for peace, and that public opinion is very much against a compromise that allows the state of Israel to exist side by side in peace with the Palestinians.

Fatah and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas are cursed at and criticized as ‘collaborators’ with Israel. That being said, it also doesn’t really matter that it is unpopular because there is no alternative.

Palestinians who refuse to accept that the state of Israel is not going anywhere are perpetuating a fantasy that prevents them from moving forward in a healthy and prosperous society, and this will continue as long as public opinion pushes this narrative in schools, television, newspapers, and government.

Perhaps more problematic for the Palestinians than for the Israelis, the longer they wait to actually negotiate in good faith, the less they have to bargain with – a fact even Mahmoud Abbas agreed with when he stated in an interview that the Palestinians were wrong to reject the UN Partition Plan.

On the Israeli side, those who approach the conflict with a zero-compromise attitude about settlements are refusing to acknowledge the reality that Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. The idea that Palestinians should just up and leave to Jordan or any other Arab state is as offensive as it is unrealistic.

Regardless that the land historically belongs to the Jews, and that it is unquestionably part of historical Israel, none of that means that Jews must demand and settle all of it now.

While the Left exaggerates the role of settlements in the conflict, it is important to note that while new settlements (not settlement blocs) are not the obstacle to peace, they are an obstacle.

Palestinians refuse to acknowledge the State of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish (and democratic) state, but using that as an excuse to further develop settlements, or push policies that will make an eventual division more difficult, is paving the path toward conflict and bloodshed on both sides.

Furthermore, refusing to acknowledge the unimaginable damage that annexation (with or without full civil rights to Palestinians) would cause the state of Israel is irresponsible, no matter how far away or unpopular the two-state solution is today.

Opponents of my arguments would rightly point out that when Israel did give up land for peace all it got in return was violence, like in Gaza. Even more relevant, one could argue that if withdrawing to 1967 lines was the key to peace, why was there violence before 1967?

I am not claiming that a two-state solution will bring a warm peace between two peoples. There will still be conflict, likely for a very long time. But the status quo hasn’t brought peace either. Israel has had wave after wave of violence and terrorism, with or without occupation, and by continuing to push policies that make the two-state solution harder to achieve, we are laying the groundwork for worse conflict in the future. Israel can invest in resources that will protect the Jewish and democratic state with less territory instead of taking action to worsen the conflict down the road.

At a certain point, it doesn’t matter who is right or whose fault it was, it matters what can be done about it. Obsessing over Palestinians embracing terrorism and rejecting Israel’s right to exist isn’t going to bring us as Israelis any closer to peace.

The reality is that for Israel and the Palestinians, it is going to take a leader who is willing to commit political suicide to implement a two-state solution, and it is not going to be an easy path. It is, however, going to be even worse if both sides continue in the direction they have been for the past few decades.

No matter how unpopular is the two-state solution, it is still the only chance Israel has for remaining both democratic and Jewish. Israel cannot control what the Palestinians think or that they do not recognize Israel’s legitimacy, but it can take responsibility for its own future and pursue two states. Ultimately, Israel must decide what it wants.

Increases in shipping rates and consumer prices in Asia

According to an IMF Report, as the world economy recovers from the pandemic, inflation is mounting in advance and emerging economies. Pent-up demand fueled by stimulus and pandemic disruptions is helping accelerate inflation, spread around the world through global factors like higher food and energy prices, and soaring shipping costs.

It is believed that Asia’s inflation has been more moderate as compared to other regions, affording central banks room to keep interest rates low and support economic recovery. However, Asia’s tepid price gains may see greater momentum in year 2022. The outlook remains uncertain, and central banks should be ready to tighten policy if inflation pressures and expectations mount.

Several factors explain Asia’s lower inflation. Among Asia’s emerging economies, a delayed recovery has kept core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy costs—running at half the rate of peers in other regions. The cost of food—which makes up about one third of the consumer price index baskets—grew 1.6% over the past year as against 9.1% in other regions.

This reflects unique factors such as a solid harvest in India, a hog population rebound from a recent swine flu epidemic in China, and contained increases in rice prices. By contrast, lower inflation in Asia’s advanced economies reflects a different set of factors. The region has enjoyed more muted energy inflation than Europe and the United States.

Some Asian countries managed the pandemic in a way that avoided major supply disruptions and the associated pressure on prices. Korea embraced comprehensive contact tracing and testing, for example, while Australia and China contained infections with border closures and localized lockdowns.

Broad inflationary pressures will eventually moderate globally, as supply-demand mismatches ease and stimulus recedes. But in 2022, as the recovery strengthens, the persistent impact of high shipping costs could put an end to the benign inflation Asia has enjoyed in 2021.

One benchmark measure of global shipping costs, the Baltic Dry Index, tripled this year through October. IMF analysis shows such large increases in shipping costs boost inflation for 12 months, which could add about 1.5% points to the pace of Asia’s inflation in the second half of 2022.

Israel expresses readiness to attack Iranian nuclear assets

Israel could successfully strike Iran's nuclear program tomorrow if necessary, said incoming Commander of the Israel Air Force (IAF) Maj-Gen Tomer Bar in a recent interview. 

Bar, who currently commands the Force Design Directorate, will take command of the Air Force in April and could be the officer who will need to command a strike against Iran's nuclear program should ongoing talks in Vienna between Tehran and world powers fail.

"I have to assume it will happen in my time, and my shoulders already understand the weight of the responsibility," Bar told.

When asked if he thinks Israel can successfully destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, Bar stressed that "there is no way that we will operate there, one thousand kilometers from here, and I will return home without being able to say 'I completed the mission.'"

Despite reports about the lack of a budget hindering the IDF's preparations for a possible strike on Iran, the incoming IAF commander said that the situation is "not black and white."

"From the moment I sat here at the head of the Force Design Directorate, and the chief of staff spoke with me, the mission of the 'third circle' (Iran) was there," Bar said.

"We are not starting from zero. We equipped ourselves with F-35s, [do they] not know how to get to the third circle? We procured thousands of Iron Dome interceptors for multi-layer defense."

Concerning the reported US refusal to advance the delivery of two KC-46 tanker refueling aircraft to Israel, Bar said that he was at the meeting when the request was made and that the IDF is currently examining the reason for the refusal.

"The US is more than an acquaintance, and they have a desire to form deep and real cooperation. I do not know the reason for the refusal, but I have not yet exhausted the possibility of getting at least two refuelers in advance."

On the northern front with Lebanon, Bar said he believes that the next war with Hezbollah will break out as soon as Israel strikes Iran.

"I have to assume that he -Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah - will automatically be all in. 30 years he has waited for this order and there is no way that he will not be there and with the highest intensity," Bar said. "We have to be prepared for this."

The outgoing Force Design Directorate head stressed that the Third Lebanon War "cannot be compared" to the first two wars with Lebanon. "This is not raising the volume on the same radio.

The familiarity with Hezbollah, the number of targets, the strength built over the years in matters of intelligence and attack capability, electronic warfare, cyber" make it a whole different scenario. "I can stand by my word."

Bar added that the next war with Lebanon will definitely involve a ground operation, saying that combined with the effectiveness of the IAF "is something else entirely."

"Even Hezbollah... does not know how to imagine our power," he said. "Maybe they will try to bring in Special Forces or shoot at the home front, but we are no longer on this scale. We want a clear victory this time, in a shorter time and with fewer losses."

Meanwhile, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan landed in Israel on Tuesday to hold detailed discussions with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Iran's nuclear program.

The US and Israeli officials will talk about how they see the coming weeks unfolding with Iran during the discussions, a senior Biden administration official told Reuters.

"We will talk about where we see the state of Iran's nuclear program and some of the timelines," the official said. "It will be a good opportunity to sit down face-to-face and talk about the state of the talks and the time frame in which we are working, and to re-emphasize that we don't have much time."

 

Is United States seeking Israel approval for Iran nuclear talks?

A senior official in the administration of the US President Joe Biden disclosed that National Security adviser Jake Sullivan will visit Israel this week for detailed discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on the Vienna talks regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Sullivan will be joined by the National Security Council's Middle East director Brett McGurk among other US officials. They will also meet with Palestinian President Mohammed Abbas in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah to discuss strengthening relations with the Palestinians.

The Palestinian Authority ceased contact with the previous US administration saying it was no longer a fair broker in the so-called peace process. Observers have very little hope Biden can achieve anything to bring peace to the conflict. They say the visit to Ramallah is just a stunt.

Experts say the trip is more than likely to be dominated by the Vienna talks where Iran and the P4+1 group of parties are engaged in talks on a possible return to the original format of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed in 2015.

Negotiators are reporting slow progress at the talks in Vienna which are aimed at lifting the illegal US sanctions imposed on Iran after the former administration of President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the UN backed agreement.

The Biden administration official speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the US and Israeli officials will talk about how they see the coming weeks unfolding with Iran.

"We will talk about where we see Iran's nuclear program and some of the timelines," the official said. "It will be a good opportunity to sit down face-to-face and talk about the state of the talks, the timeframe in which we are working, and to re-emphasize that we don't have much time."

Many analysts have said that the back and forth flights between Washington and Tel Aviv during the Vienna talks on Iran show the Israeli regime is taking the lead role in America’s position to the Iran Nuclear Deal and Biden is anything but the Commander in Chief here, let alone serving America’s interests.

Afghanistan needs a sustainable government

Pakistan has just played host to the biggest international gathering on Afghanistan in which Iran actively participated and submitted a number of proposals to address the dire situation in neighboring Afghanistan.

On Sunday, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation held an extraordinary session on Afghanistan at the request of Saudi Arabia. The meeting of the OIC council of foreign ministers was held in Islamabad, Pakistan with the participation of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. 

The session was the latest effort by Pakistan to put the limelight on the dire situation of Afghanistan amid growing international apathy toward the war-torn country. Since the rise of the Taliban a few months ago, Afghanistan has turned into a pariah state with no legitimate and internationally recognized government.

In August, the Taliban overthrew the US-backed government in Kabul and assumed power. But it is yet to be recognized by any country. Since then, some of Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Iran, have tried to help the Afghan people while encouraging the Taliban into forming a broad-based government representing all Afghan ethnoreligious groups. The Taliban has announced a caretaker government that raised alarm bells across the globe for excluding women and ethnic groups. 

The Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, was in attendance at the OIC meeting but he was excluded from the family photo of the 17th Extraordinary Session of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers given the fact that none of the OIC member states has recognized the Taliban-led government. 

With the Taliban government continuing to be unrecognized, the international community has faced difficulty providing humanitarian aid to the Afghan people who are grappling with economic hardships during a frosty winter. 

Iran and some other countries have sent many planeloads of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. But some countries are concerned about and unwilling to directly provide aid to Kabul. This was addressed during the OIC meeting which pledged to set up a humanitarian trust fund for Afghanistan.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qureshi also pointed to this issue. He said many want to make donations, but they don't want to donate directly, they want a certain mechanism that will comfort them.

Commenting on the OIC-proposed mechanism, Qureshi said that the mechanism has been established, and donations will be made. 

Prime Minister Imran Khan also highlighted the dire situation in Afghanistan. “Unless action is taken immediately, Afghanistan is heading for chaos,” he said, adding, “Any government when it can’t pay its salaries for its public servants, hospitals, doctors, nurses, any government is going to collapse but chaos suits no one, it certainly does not suit the United States.”

Pakistan seems to believe that the non-recognition of the Taliban’s government would further exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan. But the Taliban also failed to meet the requirements of the international community in regard to the formation of an inclusive government. 

Iran sought to help the Taliban in this regard by presenting a four-point proposal that seems to be devised to pave the way for recognition of the Taliban by the international community. 

In his speech at the OIC meeting, Amir Abdollahian unveiled Iran’s proposal that he said was made in support of the people of Afghanistan.

“First, Muslim states should encourage the ruling establishment in Afghanistan and all parties to form an inclusive government. Second, the people of Afghanistan are in dire need of urgent humanitarian assistance. The formation of a financial fund among the Muslim states seems necessary to realize this objective,” Amir Abdollahian said. 

He added, “Third, it is also necessary to release Afghanistan’s assets. Fourth, undoubtedly, the UN member states and its Secretary General can play a leading role in contributing to the formation of an inclusive government and assisting the people of Afghanistan and prevent a new humanitarian catastrophe.”

The Iranian foreign minister also expressed hope that an inclusive government will soon be formed in Afghanistan with the participation of all Afghan ethnic groups so that its representative will be able to attend the next OIC conference and Afghanistan’s seat won’t be vacant.  

Amir Abdollahian reiterated Iran’s position during a meeting with Imran Khan. He pointed out that the Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan's neighbors, regional countries and the UN to facilitate the establishment of a broad-based government in Afghanistan by Afghans themselves. Amir Abdollahian also spoke of bilateral issues between Iran and Pakistan, especially the issue of border cooperation.

 

Iran’s growing trade with ECO member countries

Iran’s trade with the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) exceeded US$10.447 billion in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-November 22) to register a 44% increase year on year (YoY), the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said.

According to Ruhollah Latifi, the volume of trade with the mentioned countries also increased by 34 percent in comparison to the previous year’s same eight months, IRNA reported.

As reported, during the mentioned period Iran traded over 21,778,387 tons of commodities worth US$10.447 billion with ECO member countries including Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Iran exported 18.631 million tons of commodities worth over US$6.823 billion to the said nations in the mentioned period.

He said major export destinations of the Iranian goods in the said union were Turkey with about US$3.767 billion of imports, Afghanistan with US$1.27 billion, Pakistan with US$764.389 million, and Azerbaijan with US$335.843 million.

As reported, the Islamic Republic’s export to ECO members increased by 46% and 54% as compared to the figures for the previous year in terms of weight and value, respectively.

Meanwhile, the country imported 3,147,332 tons of goods valued at over US$3.623 billion from the ECO member countries, with Turkey, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan being the top sources of imported goods.

The value of Iranian imports from the ECO union also increased by 28% as compared to the previous year’s same time span, the official said.

According to Latifi, more than 23.723 million tons of goods worth US$11.71 billion were traded between Iran and the ECO member countries during the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 20), of which the share of exports was 18.419 million tons of goods worth US$6.890 billion and the share of imports from these countries was 5.312 million tons worth US$4.819 billion.

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade during the first eight months of the current year stood at about US$33 billion, Latifi had previously announced.

The Economic Cooperation Organization or ECO is an Asian political and economic intergovernmental organization that was founded in 1985 in Tehran by the leaders of Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey.

 

Creation of Bangladesh: Javed Jabbar presents another perspective

The first screening of Javed Jabbar’s documentary, ‘Separation of East Pakistan — The Untold Story’ at the Cinepax Packages Mall left the audience amazed at the ways how history had been manipulated against Pakistan, purposefully creating issues between Bangladesh and Pakistan to ensure continued regional unrest.

In the documentary, experts and intellectual leaders address the false information and share little-known facts about 1971. The documentary claims how the plight and insecurities of the vulnerable people of the then East Pakistan were misused by the international community to promote a separatist movement when they, including Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, did not necessarily want an independent nation.

It poses the question how it is even possible that those who created Pakistan would want to break it. The documentary unfolds the reality and full extent of India’s involvement in the region, which is not limited to 1971 but, actually started years before.

Most importantly, it clarifies the fake news spread by those against Pakistan of the number of people killed and raped and clears the misnomers of the supposed, non-violent movement. The documentary also outlines the misjudgments made by those in power at the time, which created conducive environment for regional powers to play politics and break up a nation.

The documentary is an important step to clarify what really happened, to move towards improving relationships between Bangladesh and Pakistan. It is a time we told the true story so that we can build stronger ties with our Muslim brothers.

Speaking on the occasion, former Senator and Federal Information Minister Javed Jabbar said that 1971 was the source of an enduring pain and melancholy. Throwing light on the documentary, he said he had found many well-written books and vast amount of literature on 1971 tragedy but could not find even a single documentary on the subject that’s why this documentary was produced. He held in high esteem the team behind the documentary, especially the producer Iram Shahid.

Jabbar said the documentary would be dubbed into Urdu for making it understandable for more people. The documentary also featured interviews of eminent scholars who all had endorsed its edited version, he said and added that making of the documentary would not have been possible without the military-civil cooperation for the archival material. The documentary screenings would also be held in Islamabad and Karachi.

 

Macron leading the charge against Biden

Lately, French President, Emmanuel Macron said he would rather work with the International Olympic Committee to protect athletes all over the world rather than participate in symbolic boycotts of the China games. “We must not politicize the Olympics,” said Macron.

“I prefer to do things that have a positive impact on the international stage, as I do with everything else.”

The United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom are among the Western countries that have announced that they will not send officials to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics in order to send a message to China about its human rights record.

Foreign Affairs Ministers of European Union (EU) were scheduled to meet in Brussels to discuss the issue, but they were not likely to agree to follow the US stance.

“We’re not rushing into it,” said one EU diplomat.

“I don’t think people are rushing to support the US position.”

China said it was unconcerned about a ‘domino effect’ of diplomatic boycotts after Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada joined the United States in refusing to send officials to the Olympics.

Because of China’s atrocities in the western region of Xinjiang, the United States was the first to announce a boycott, say that its government officials would not attend the February 4-20 Games next year.

“I don’t see any need to be concerned about any domino effect,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said during a daily press conference when asked about the possibility of more boycotts.

“On the contrary, the Beijing Winter Olympics have received widespread support from around the world.”

The US and its allies’ diplomatic boycotts come after a sharp deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington, which began under former US President Donald Trump.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has continued to put pressure on China on a number of issues, including human rights and China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea.

Wang noted that the United Nations on December 02, 2020 adopted a resolution calling for an ‘Olympic Truce’ during the Beijing Games, which was co-sponsored by more than 170 of the 193 member states.

According to him, quite a few foreign leaders and members of royal families had signed up to attend.

Joe Biden is here to stay

Joe Biden, President of United States is sticking with his White House team despite lagging poll numbers that have contributed to rising Democratic worries about the party's prospects in next year’s midterm elections.  

Biden’s core team has remained largely intact, and there are few signs of a looming shake-up. The White House and its allies have also signaled they see little reason to make changes.

“I don’t think the problem is staffing,” said Jim Kessler, Executive Vice President for Policy at Democratic think tank Third Way.

“I don’t think there’s any need to make staffing changes,” added Basil Smikle, a Democratic strategist and Director of Hunter College’s Public Policy Program.

The end of Biden’s first year in office has been difficult, with the key item in his legislative agenda stuck in the Senate largely because of an impasse with Sen. Joe Manchin.

The White House is also dealing with a nagging pandemic as COVID-19 case rise and the omicron variant threatens to create a new wave of the virus in the United States. The pandemic has also fed Biden’s economic problems, from inflation to supply chain crisis that has frustrated businesses and consumers.

These are all real challenges but are not symptoms of a staffing problem. They pointed instead to the deep polarization in Congress and a pessimistic electorate that is tired of the pandemic and related economic issues.

Smikle said the 50-50 Senate equally divided between Democrats and Republicans is the reason for Biden’s difficulties legislatively and that staffing would not make much of a difference.

“The challenges with the legislation are less about his own administration and more about the political landscape in the Senate and the small majority there as well as the broader polarization within Congress,” he said.

Kessler said that while the White House is hearing a lot of criticism on its messaging, Biden’s problems aren’t that unusual.

“Democrats have historically had a hard time crowing about good economic news when they’re in charge because there is a belief that if people think the economy is good then they don’t need democratic programs,” he said.

“Meanwhile, Republicans are saying the economy is bad because they want to take power. Democrats need to take a page from Ronald Reagan and be talking about the positives in this economy.”

Sources pointed to Biden’s history as a loyal boss who enjoys a tight-knit inner circle of aides he has known for years, including White House chief of staff Ron Klain, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and senior advisers Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon.

Asked about Biden’s legislative team, Sen. Chris Coons, a Biden ally, said they “do a great job.” “I like them personally, I respect them professionally and I think they’re doing a really good job of managing some really tough dynamics,” Coons said. “Our Framers intended the executive and legislative branches to have different priorities and to have a contest of ideas. There are 635 of us over here. It’s not easy. Given that, they do about as good a job as they could.” 

Former President Trump presided over unprecedented turnover among White House staff and across his administration. He was prone to firing and replacing high-level officials, cycling through multiple chiefs of staff, press secretaries and national security advisers in his first year, which led to further dysfunction. 

Vice President Harris’s office has also seen staff churn during her first year, which has contributed to a perception of dysfunction within her operation.

Roberta Jacobson, who was tapped to oversee issues surrounding the US-Mexico border, left in April after a brief stint in what she said was a planned departure. Tyler Moran, a senior adviser on migration, is set to leave in January after spending roughly six months in the administration.

Andy Slavitt departed the White House coronavirus response team in June as previously planned, and Anita Dunn, who held a senior role in the communications team, also made a planned exit over the summer.

Biden’s first Staff Secretary left in October and the Director of the Presidential Personnel Office left last week for the top job at UNICEF. A handful of lower-level communications aides have also departed. None of the departures so far have been attributed to a deliberate effort by Biden to shake up his staff. 

There are Democrats who look at the poll numbers and privately question why Biden hasn’t taken a closer look at replacing some aides around him. 

"Voters have had enough and the Biden team keeps doubling down," said one Democratic strategist, pointing to the President's low approval ratings. "Begs the question, when does Biden stop listening to a team that has tanked his presidency in less than 12 months?"

A strategist said the New Year would be an ideal time for a transition.  “As they approach year two of the presidency, it might be a good time to change things up and bring in fresh perspectives in order to help with some of the unplanned challenges that have come up in the last part of the year,” the strategist said. “Phase two happens in every administration, and it's a way they could pivot from the past few months."

Others dismissed such suggestions. One person familiar with Biden World’s thinking said it was best to “do the opposite” of what anonymous strategists were suggesting. 

“Biden has surrounded himself with people he’s worked with for decades,” said Chris Whipple, author of “The Gatekeepers,” a book about White House chiefs of staff. “That lends real stability when you’ve got people like that.”

The messy withdrawal from Afghanistan prompted questions about whether Biden would fire one of his advisers, and there were rumblings that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was on rocky footing. But Biden ultimately did not make changes, a signal that the withdrawal was his decision and he would own it.

“I’d say it’s remarkable that in the wake of Afghanistan there were no changes at all,” said Bill Galston, Chairman of the Brookings Institution’s Government Studies Program. “That may reflect the fact that almost everything that happened was driven from the president down and not the staff up.” “What’s he going to do, fire himself?” he added.

Still, some departures could be on the horizon. White House press secretary Jen Psaki has said she expects to leave her post next year, though she hasn’t laid out a timeline. 

Others may serve out their positions until at least the midterm elections. 

“You try to get the administration through the midterms, make sure their agenda, which in the first two years would be the most ambitious, you try to get that pushed through, especially when you have the House and the Senate as allies,” Smikle said.

 

US and EU support for Taiwan deepens ideological fault line

The global ideological fault line running between mainland China and Taiwan deepened in recent weeks owing to support for the self-governing island in Washington and Europe. 

US President Joe Biden’s plan for a Summit for Democracy, announced shortly before he took office, looked certain to become a thorn in Beijing’s side. 

The announcement was one of the first signals that he would keep hard-line policies against Beijing introduced by the administration of his predecessor Donald Trump.

Soon after, Washington suffered setbacks at home and abroad that allowed Beijing to treat the summit more as farce than threat.

Just two weeks before Biden took office, Trump’s supporters ransacked the US Capitol building, incited by a fiery speech from the then-president which was full of unsubstantiated claims about election fraud that few in his Republican Party have disavowed.

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban in Afghanistan in August as well as humanitarian crises in countries including Lebanon, Ethiopia and Sudan further underscored Washington’s uphill battle against what the US Secretary of State has called the world’s “democratic recession”.

However, news that Taipei would be at the virtual summit table crossed a red line that raised the stakes for Biden’s event. The move enraged Beijing after a long-awaited summit between Biden and his counterpart Xi Jinping that appeared to have at least stabilized a bilateral relationship strained by a trade war, export restrictions and defence posturing in the South and East China Sea.

The online gathering of more than 100 heads of state, which pointedly excluded China and Russia, was billed as an allied effort to counter the rise of authoritarians and convened at a time when Beijing was dispatching record numbers of military jets to Taiwan’s airspace and a build-up of Russian troops on the country’s border with Ukraine.

While criticizing Biden’s summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi promised to work with Iran, another country not invited to the forum, “to oppose any unilateralism and bullying acts, and uphold the principle of non-interference in internal affairs”.

Washington isn’t the only Western country expressing such explicit support for Taipei. Lithuania’s decision to host the first de facto Taiwanese embassy in Europe to bear the name “Taiwan” has also deepened the ideological rift between Beijing and the West.

Investigating reports of an embargo on Lithuania’s exports to and imports from China, apparently as a result of the representative office’s name, the European Union confirmed that it was looking into the accusations and warned that Lithuania’s relationship with China “has an impact on overall EU-China relations”.

Digging in, Beijing rejected a request by the EU to discuss the alleged trade block on Lithuanian firms, claiming it is too preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic.

Days later, Vilnius pulled its Beijing embassy staff from the country and, almost simultaneously, Xi pledged to support efforts by Lithuania’s historical rival Russia to protect its long-term security amid rising international pressure over Moscow’s attitude to Ukraine.

Xi made the pledge in a video call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, where the Chinese leader also said China and Russia opposed attempts to divide the two nations and called for more joint actions to safeguard their security interests.

As if to underscore the growing divide between the democratic world that Biden is trying to solidify into a more determined and closely aligned bloc and nations on Beijing’s side, Xi said “China and Russia are both major nations with global influence”.

United States drops over 100,000 bombs across Syria

I am shocked to read a revelation by The New York Times (NYT) that a top secret US cell known as Talon Anvil sidestepped safeguards and repeatedly ordered airstrikes that killed an untold number of civilians in Syria under the guise of targeting ISIS fighters.

According to the report published on 12 December, the shadowy group operated from anonymous rooms “cluttered with flat screens” in three shifts around the clock between 2014 and 2019.

Among US officials, Talon Anvil was known to disregard safeguard procedures to function at the “speed of war,” and obscured a countless number of civilian deaths including farmers trying to harvest, children in the street, families fleeing fighting, and villagers taking shelter in buildings.

The NYT report also claims that Talon Anvil played an “outsize role” in the dropping of over 100,000 bombs in the war-torn country.

“They were ruthlessly efficient and good at their jobs … but they also made a lot of bad strikes,” a former Air Force intelligence officer who worked on hundreds of classified Talon Anvil missions told the NYT.

Among the many bombing campaigns that Talon Anvil was responsible for is the 2019 airstrike in the eastern Syrian governorate of Dayr al-Zawr which killed over 60 civilians, including dozens of women and children. This particular attack has been described as being “part of a pattern of reckless strikes that started years earlier.”

US Air Force officials who spoke with the NYT on condition of anonymity said that over the years they notified their commanding officers several times about Talon Anvil’s disregard for civilian lives. However, the military leaders seemed reluctant to scrutinize the strike cell as it was “driving the offensive” on the battlefield.

According to Larry Lewis, a former Pentagon and State Department adviser, every year that Talon Anvil operated in Syria the civilian casualty rate increased significantly.

Lewis also claims that US military commanders “enabled the tactics by failing to emphasize the importance of reducing civilian casualties.” He singles out General Stephen J. Townsend, who commanded US troops in Syria in 2016 and 2017, as being “dismissive of widespread reports from news media and human rights organizations describing the mounting toll.”

Talon Anvil’s operations were highly classified and the strike cell as a whole never existed in an official manner. It was run by a classified Special Operations unit called Task Force 9, whose other tasks included training allied Syrian and Kurdish armed groups.

The strike cell reportedly worked out of “bland office spaces” both in Iraq and Syria and was in control of a “fleet of Predator and Reaper drones that bristled with precision Hellfire missiles and laser-guided bombs.”

They carried out most of their operations based on tips from allied forces, secret electronic intercepts, drone cameras, and other information to find enemy targets.

A former member of Talon Anvil told the NYT that the strike cell often decided that something was an enemy target with scant supporting evidence. But as suspicion mounted over their tactics, Talon Anvil began to classify nearly all of its attacks as defensive – even when targets were 100 miles away from the front lines.

“It’s more expedient to resort to self-defense,” said Lewis. “It’s easier to get approved.”

The drone operators were also known to turn away the drone cameras away from targets before launching bombs or missiles to avoid accountability.

The operators also pressured analysts, who watched drone footage after strikes had taken place, to report that they had seen weapons or other evidence that would justify a strike hit. If they refused, the cell would simply ask for another analyst.