Cold war is still going on, though of another type

According to many analysts, 20th century ended with a unipolar world. The United States developed the complacency it had eliminated its enemies, but the start of the 21st century proved it wrong and the cold war is still going on.

The fight against communism might be over, but the communist countries from the east began to respond to the US, in their own way. Two leaders from the east, Putin and Xi Jinping are constantly challenging the US hegemony through proxies, trade and diplomacy.

Although, the main US enemy during the cold war was Russia, one more was added to the list in the new cold war, China. The dawn of the 21st century brought rising China.

Its military might and economic progress posed a threat to US dominance. China began to capture the world through trade and investment. It caused the US, to take some unconventional steps against China. The US imposed economic sanctions on China and China responded accordingly. Hence, the trade war started.

The US also shifted its Asia Pacific policy to Indo-Pacific. The initiative New Silk Road, the establishment of Quad, more military presence in the South China Sea, military assistance to Taiwan, and support for Hong Kong are some manifestations of the new cold war.

Rising Russia

Putin strengthened the disintegrated Russia, which gave birth to the new phase of the cold war, and also made Russia stronger to give a befitting response to the US at every front.

Putin with political acumen and strong nerves has brought Russia to the level to compete with the US at the international chessboard more firmly and robustly.

In 2015, Russia launched airstrikes in Syria to back Bashar Al-Assad, the US was too keen to topple. Failed Trump had to announce the withdrawal of troops from Syria. Subsequently, Russia won Asad, the ruler of an important country in the Middle East.

Furthermore, Russia’s meddling in the US 2016 elections which boosted Trump candidacy, proved Putin a great strategist. Trump’s policies ‑ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, cancellation of Iran nuclear deal, Mexico border wall, a travel ban on some Muslim countries, recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel etc. brought criticism to the US.

By bringing Trump into power, Russia succeeded in minimizing its enemy’s role in international politics and tarnishing its image at an international forum.

Russia and China also enjoy good relations with Iran. Both Russia and Iran are also major allies in Syria, a country that was once America’s ally. Closer to home, Russia is also trying to play its card in the Afghanistan conflict.

The US had to invite Russia to arrange the Moscow conference, which was arranged on 20th March, to bring peace to Afghanistan. After fighting the longest war, the US is defeated and facing humiliation, because of Russia’s support to Taliban. Now Russia would surely win an important stake in Afghanistan’s political leadership.

Falling United States

Moreover, Turkey has also gone from the US hands. The US sanctions over Turkey against buying the S-400 missiles system from Russia have brought the relations between former allies to a historic low.

Turkey, under Erdogan, chose to preserve its sovereignty by pursuing an independent policy. Hence, the country, which once allowed the US to deploy nuclear weapons against USSR now has warm relations with Russia and is no more on Uncle Sam’s payroll.

In Latin America waves of the cold war were also seen following the Venezuela crisis. The US has thrown its support behind Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido and declared him the interim president while Russia sent two military planes carrying about 100 Russian personnel arrived in Caracas in the support of President Maduro.

The US officials have told CBS News that the influx was unusual for its size, has fuelled tensions between Russia and the United States as China was also supporting Maduro. Hence, the 21st century has ignited the cold war between Russia and United with new a new vigor.

It was thought that Biden, the seasoned politician, who was known for his support to democratic values, would not put through the world into an abyss of another cold war, but his first foreign policy speech proved it wrong.

China building iron ore hub in Africa

It seems Chinese state planners have realized their glaring vulnerability, high dependence on iron ore from Australia. Perhaps that is why China is looking at an impoverished but mineral rich country in West Africa, Guinea, as the potential partner that would free it from the dependence on Australia, which has turned a foe after joining Quad.

Guinea sits atop the world's largest reserve of untapped high-quality iron ore. Surely it is no coincidence, then, that on 4th March 2021, the first batch of China-donated COVID-19 vaccines arrived in Guinea, one of the first nations to receive the Chinese gift. 

The change in Chinese strategy can be best understood by reading two briefs. The stock market turmoil linked to US investment firm Archegos Capital Management appears to have hit Japan's biggest financial player, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Its security unit said it faces a potential loss estimated at $300 million at a European unit.

In worrying news for Apple, its partner and top iPhone assembler Foxconn said that the global chip shortage will cut its shipments by 10% a rare acknowledgment that shows some of the world's biggest consumer names might face headwinds from the supply crunch rocking the tech industry.

Further clarity can be obtained by a quick review of rise and fall of Japan.
 
"No other nation at the present time is spending so large a part of its revenue on naval preparations," military author Hector Bywater wrote in the 1921 book "Sea-Power in the Pacific." But Japan had a critical weakness: lack of steel. Japan's ambition to become the dominant Pacific naval power was brought to a standstill when the US imposed a steel embargo in 1917.
  

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

It is not an appropriate time for Pakistan to issue US$ denominated Eurobonds

There are reports that Pakistan is getting ready to issue US$ denominated Eurobonds of more than US$2 billion over the next few days. The settlement date for the issue is likely to be 6th April 2021. However, some analysts are of the view that it is not an appropriate time to go for this adventure.

Initial indications suggest that 5-year bond’s bids to be between 6.0-6.5%, 10-year bond’s between 7.2-7.7%. Interestingly, Pakistan is also trying to sell Eurobonds having a tenor of 30 years at a yield of close to 8.5-9.0%.

They say, currently US$ exchange parity is on the slide and further erosion in value is anticipated as Ramadan gets closer. They anticipate an influx of more than US$2.5 billion over the next 30 days, which may push the parity below Rs148.

They go to the extent of saying that Pakistan should capitalize this opportunity, as no interest payment will be required. The want State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to work out a band, in which parity should be allowed to move. The central bank should start buying when parity goes below the threshold point or start selling which parity crosses upper limit.

They believe the central bank has ample supply of local currency in its coffer and in the worst scenario can print more. In this scenario the biggest collateral will of the added foreign exchange reserves.

Currently, Pakistan’s US$ denominated bond yields around 5.9% (having maturity in 2027) in the secondary market. The average yield over the last 3-months for the same is around 5.8%.

We believe this re-entry of Pakistan in international capital markets will support investors’ sentiments. Regardless of the yield, the size of these bonds will provide much needed support to Pakistan foreign exchange reserves that are currently adequate for 3 months of import only.

S&P and Moody’s presently rate Pakistan as B- with stable outlook and B3 with stable outlook.

Recently Egypt having S&P rating of B and Moody’s rating of B2 (one notch above Pakistan), raised US$3.75 billion. Egypt sold 5-year worth US$750 million at 3.875%, 10-year bonds worth at US$1.5 billion at 5.875% and 40-year bonds worth US$1.5 billion at 7.5%.

Pakistan Rupee (PKR) vis-à-vis US$ has climbed to a 22-month high, gaining around 3% during the last month and 9% from its bottom touched on 20th July 2020.

Pakistan floated its first bond in international market during 1994 and then in 1997.

The first bond was launched on Dec 22, 1994 at 11.5% with amount raised being US$150 million. This was followed by US$160 million and US$300 million bond in Feb-May, 1997 at 6% and Libor + 395bps, respectively.

Later due to international restriction after nuclear testing Pakistan was unable to tap international market. However, Pakistan reverted back to international market in 2004 as better macroeconomic indicators resulted in improved ratings.

In FY05, Pakistan issued 5-year Eurobond and raised US$500 million at rate of 6.75%.

In FY06, Pakistan issued US$600mn in 5-year Sukuk issuance at rental rate of 6M LIBOR plus 220bps.

In FY07, Pakistan issued total US$800 million by issuing two Eurobonds of worth US$500 million (7.125%, 10 year) and US$300 million (7.875%, 30 year) each.

After gap of 7 years, Pakistan mobilized US$2 billion in April 2014 by issuing 5 and 10 year bonds at 7.25% and 8.25%, respectively.

In November 2014, Pakistan issued Sukuk of US$1 billion (already matured in December 2019) at 6.75%.

In September 2015, Pakistan issued 5-year Eurobond of US$500 million at 8.25%. In Oct-2016, Pakistan issued 5 year Sukuk of US$1 billion at a lowest rate of 5.5%.

In last issue of November 2017, Pakistan raised US$2.5 billion by offering 5-year Sukuk of US$1 billion and 10-year Eurobond of US$1.5 billion at 5.625% and 6.875%, respectively. 

Bangladesh: A role model for developing countries

Poverty, hunger, natural disasters, famine, crumbling infrastructure, political turmoil, and coups in the first decade after the creation of Bangladesh did not paint a picture that would radiate hope. Today, as the country celebrates Golden Jubilee of Independence, Bangladesh has not only stood on its own feet, but has also become a role model for development.

In the beginning, Bangladesh was branded as a basket case. The naysayers believed that country would have to be fed by the international community as it was staring at failure with no mineral resources, high population growth, food shortage, and negligible exports.

The situation was so bad that in 1976, Just Faaland, resident representative of the World Bank in Bangladesh (1972-1974), and Prof Jack R Parkinson, senior economist to the World Bank Mission summed up Bangladesh’s trauma in the phrase “test case for development”. They argued, “If development could be made successful in Bangladesh, there can be little doubt that it could be made to succeed anywhere else.”

Bangladesh turnaround story is worth reading. The country brought down the population growth rate from over 3 percent to a little over one percent. The poverty rate had fallen to less than 20 percent before the pandemic from as high as 82 percent in the 1970s.

The country struggling to feed its 75 million people five decades ago is self-sufficient in food production even though the population has more than doubled.

Aid-dependence significantly declined from 14 percent of the GDP in the 70s to less than 1.5 percent now.

Life expectancy is 72 years, much higher than neighbouring Pakistan and India.

People can now send their children to schools and access primary health care.

With policy support of the government, Bangladesh has become a key supplier of readymade garments worldwide. Major brands of the world have their products made here. This industry alone brings in about US$34 billion a year and employs millions, women being the largest workforce in the industry.

Another key driver of the economy is manpower export. Around 10 million Bangladeshis are working abroad and earning foreign exchange for the country and bringing comfort to near and dear.

They send in around US$15 billion every year and that amount is ever increasing. This allowed Bangladesh to have a huge foreign currency reserve.

More than ten million people took shelter in India in 1971. Now Bangladesh, with its economic might, is able to open its doors to nearly a million Rohingyas escaping persecution in Myanmar.

Bangladesh has met all three conditions for graduating from the grouping of the least-developed countries twice. The United Nations Committee for Development Policy has already recommended the country’s graduation in 2026.

Bangladesh’s economy was one of the few economies that posted positive growth in 2020 when growth went south for most because of the pandemic.

The secret of Bangladesh’s success was its education and girls, as American journalist and political commentator Nicholas Kristof put it. “Bangladesh invested in its most underutilized assets — its poor, with a focus on the most marginalized and least productive, because that’s where the highest returns would be.”

Ahsan Mansur, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, said the central bank did not have a machine to print money after independence. The geopolitical situation was not in favour of Bangladesh as the new country was aligned with the left-leaning bloc.

Since the severe famine of 1974, Bangladesh has not faced any major food crisis, greatly aided by the green revolution that was sweeping across the world at the time. “This has been a major achievement,” he said.

A major paradigm shift was moving away from a nationalized economic policy stance perceived in the 1970s to a private-sector-led economy with liberalization, deregulation and denationalization in the 80s and 90s, according to Manzur Hossain, Research Director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).

“Bangladesh has disproved all predictions and progressed at a good pace,” said AB Mirza Azizul Islam, a former bureaucrat and Finance Adviser of the government.

Muhammad Abdul Mazid, a former Chairman of the National Board of Revenue, said all governments took note of the importance of the agriculture sector to feed the growing population amid shrinking land. The sector gave the much-needed resilience to the economy.

“Our people are resilient and proactive in driving the economy forward. And they have been supported by appropriate policies,” said Prof Shamsul Alam, member of the General Economics Division under the Planning Commission.

Zaid Bakht, a former Research Director of the BIDS, credited public expenditure and investment for the surprising turnaround. “All countries do this, but ours was more focused and intense. Governments have given emphasis on rural infrastructural development. This has a tremendous impact on the economy.” There has been economic diversification. Cropping intensity has been increased. Non-farm activities have gone up, he added.

He said microcredit organizations and NGOs have worked in empowering women. Governments set up roads and bridges, kept the labour market flexible, gave mobility and education to women and girls, and made some improvements in the health sector. “All these created a virtuous cycle,” Bakht said.

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka Office, gave credit to the steady economic growth, social policies aimed at population control, rural roads, education and electrification, primary education, female education, local low-cost health solutions for immunization and communicable diseases, access to finance through microcredit, last-mile service delivery by NGOs, and demographic dividend for the turnaround of the country.

The latest testimony to Bangladesh’s astounding achievement came when Nicholas Kristof advised US President Joe Biden to look to Bangladesh to find the answer to how to bring down the rate of poor children.

Courtesy: The Daily Star

Traffic in Suez Canal resumes after stranded ship refloated

Shipping traffic through Egypt’s Suez Canal resumed on Monday after a giant container ship which had been blocking the busy waterway for almost a week was refloated, the canal authority said. Live footage on a local television station showed the ship surrounded by tug boats moving slowly in the center of the canal. The station, ExtraNews, said the ship was moving at a speed of 1.5 knots.

The 400-metre (430-yard) long Ever Given became jammed diagonally across a southern section of the canal in high winds early last Tuesday, halting traffic on the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

 “Admiral Osama Rabie, the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), announces the resumption of maritime traffic in the Suez Canal after the Authority successfully rescues and floats the giant Panamanian container ship EVER GIVEN,” a statement from the SCA said.

“She’s free,” an official involved in the salvage operation said.

After dredging and excavation work over the weekend, rescue workers from the SCA and a team from Dutch firm Smit Salvage had succeeded in partially refloating the ship earlier on Monday using tug boats, two marine and shipping sources said.

Evergreen Line, which is leasing the Ever Given, confirmed the ship had been successfully refloated and said it would be repositioned and inspected for seaworthiness.

Ship stranded in Suez Canal re-floats

The stranded container ship blocking the Suez Canal for almost a week was re-floated on Monday and is currently being secured, Inchcape Shipping Services said, raising expectations the vital waterway will soon be reopened.

The ship was successfully re-floated at 4.30 am local time and was being secured at the moment, Inchcape, a global provider of marine services said on Twitter.

Ship-tracking service VesselFinder has changed the ship’s status to under way on its website.

The 400-metre (430-yard) long Ever Given was jammed diagonally across a southern section of the canal in high winds early on Tuesday, halting shipping traffic on the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

At least 369 vessels were waiting to transit the canal, including dozens of container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessels, SCA Chairman Osama Rabie told Egypt’s Extra News on Sunday.

Egypt’s Leth Agencies tweeted the ship had been partially refloated, pending official confirmation from the Suez Canal Authority.

The Suez Canal Authority had earlier said in a statement that tugging operations to free the ship had resumed. The Suez Canal salvage teams intensified excavation and dredging on Sunday and were hoping a high tide would help them dislodge it.

IMF Completes Combined Review of EFF for Pakistan

Reportedly, Executive Board of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed combined second through fifth reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, allowing for an immediate release of US$500 million for budget support, taking total budgetary support under the arrangement to about US$2 billion.

Program performance has remained satisfactory notwithstanding the unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 shock, and the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods.

Pakistani authorities have remained committed to ambitious policy actions and structural reforms to strengthen economic resilience, advance sustainable growth, and achieve economic reform program medium-term objectives.

Pakistan’s 39-month EFF arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on 3rd July 3, 2019 for about US$6 billion at the time of approval of the arrangement, or 210% of quota. The program aims to support Pakistan’s policies to help the economy and save lives and livelihoods amid the still unfolding COVID-19 pandemic, ensure macroeconomic and debt sustainability, and advance structural reforms to lay the foundations for strong, job-rich, and long-lasting growth that benefits all Pakistanis.

Following the Executive Board discussion on Pakistan, Ms. Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

The Pakistani authorities have continued to make satisfactory progress under the Fund-supported program, which has been an important policy anchor during an unprecedented period. While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges, the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. The authorities have also continued to advance their reform agenda in key areas, including on consolidating central bank autonomy, reforming corporate taxation, bolstering management of state-owned enterprises, and improving cost recovery and regulation in the power sector.

Reflecting the challenges from the unfolding pandemic and the authorities’ commitment to the medium-term objectives under the EFF, the policy mix has been recalibrated to strike an appropriate balance between supporting the economy, ensuring debt sustainability, and advancing structural reforms while maintaining social cohesion. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation remain crucial in light of unusually high uncertainty and risks.

Fiscal performance in the first half of FY21 was prudent, providing targeted support and maintaining stability. Going forward, further sustained efforts, including broadening the revenue base carefully managing spending and securing provincial contributions will help achieve a lasting improvement in public finances and place debt on a downward path. Reaching the FY22 fiscal targets rests on the reform of both general sales and personal income taxation. Protecting social spending and boosting social safety nets remain vital to mitigate social costs and garner broad support for reform.

The current monetary stance is appropriate and supports the nascent recovery. Entrenching stable and low inflation requires a data-driven approach for future policy rate actions, further supported by strengthening of the State Bank of Pakistan’s autonomy and governance. The market-determined exchange rate remains essential to absorb external shocks and rebuild reserve buffers.

Recent measures have helped contain the accumulation of new arrears in the energy sector. Vigorously following through with the updated IFI-supported circular debt management plan and enactment of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority Act amendments would help restore financial viability through management improvements, cost reductions, regular tariff adjustments, and better targeting of subsidies.

Despite recent improvements, further efforts to remove structural impediments will strengthen economic productivity, confidence, and private sector investment. These include measures to: 1) bolster the governance, transparency, and efficiency of the vast SOE sector; 2) boost the business environment and job creation; and 3) foster governance and strengthen the effectiveness of anti-corruption institutions. Also, completing the much-advanced action plan on AML/CFT is essential.

Can Pakistan and Bangladesh be Friends ever?

On 14th August 2020, Pakistan’s Independence Day, the country’s high commissioner in Dhaka, Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, lauded the role that Bengalis played in the creation of Pakistan in 1947. 

That was preceded by Pakistani foreign office spokesperson Aisha Farooqui saying that Islamabad was now actively working on mending relations with Dhaka. Before that, the two premiers, Imran Khan and Sheikh Hasina, held on 22nd July 2020 telephone conversation.

The year 2020 provided a rare opportunity to Islamabad and Dhaka to talk about their own fractured past. This was noticed by New Delhi with concern. Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla rushed to meet Hasina and Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen.

Pakistan’s recent advances toward Bangladesh have overlapped with growing disputes between New Delhi and Dhaka, largely centering around the growing anti-Muslim tilt of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India. In the recent past, differences over the Rohingya refugee crisis, the Citizenship Amendment Act, and the construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodha have sparked a diverse array of skepticism from Dhaka.

China and Turkey are backing Islamabad’s Kashmir narrative, much of Pakistan’s recent diplomatic engagement with Bangladesh has been with regard to this fast-growing alliance. With China more interested in Kashmir because of its growing rivalry with India, and its bid to involve itself in conflicts as the global superpower, Dhaka’s interest in being a part of the China-Pakistan-Turkey nexus could also be piqued by Beijing’s investments in Bangladesh.

Under the Turkey-led Muslim bloc, both Pakistan and Bangladesh can get more prominence as compared to what they have under the Gulf states, who have not only failed to provide support for Kashmir, but have actively enhanced their defense and energy cooperation with India, and even Israel.

The UAE-Israel deal epitomizes the rapid splintering into a new cold war reality, with the Gulf states firmly in the US-Saudi camp. This opened the possibility for South Asian Muslim countries to back the potential China-Turkey bloc. Pakistan’s efforts to persuade Bangladesh, backed by China and Turkey, are rooted in global, and regional, realignments more so than any bilateral efforts to reconcile with a tumultuous past.

While Pakistan and Bangladesh might find common interests in coexisting in the same bloc, for the two to actually become friends requires an honest discussion on what transpired in 1971 – and the events leading up to it.

Where China and Turkey might be providing the opportunity for Pakistan to sit with Bangladesh again, it must do so with sincerity and self-reflection. That will not only help Islamabad formulate progressive bilateral ties, it might also ring a timely reminder to undo many of the same errors of the past.

Can sustainable peace be established between India and Pakistan?

It appears that efforts are being made to reduce hostility between Pakistan and India, the two atomic powers of South Asia. However, most of the actions are taking place behind the scene, though scanty details are being shared with public.

The Pakistan Day message received by Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan from his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi has made headlines, but it hardly reflects any tangible goodwill gesture.

After years of hostility cordiality will be difficult to achieve. Yet the first, careful steps have been taken, and if things proceed without any glitch tangible progress in the peace process can be achieved.

The first sign that things were changing for the better came in the shape of the LoC ceasefire announced last month by the two countries. It was followed up by statements from Khan and the army chief calling for better relations with India.

Pakistani experts were also in India earlier this week after a long gap to discuss the sharing of Indus waters. Relations had of course hit rock bottom after India unilaterally annulled held Kashmir’s special status in its constitution in 2019.

One can hear the eco that a Gulf state that enjoys good relations with both sides is playing the role of peacemaker. Biden administration is also sending certain signals to Islamabad and New Delhi. This suggests that the two atomic powers are being pressurized to ease the situation.

It has been witnessed several times in the past; both countries were tantalizingly close to making peace, only for the process to be abandoned due to spoilers, this time things may not be different.

It is believed that with seriousness of purpose, everything standing in the way of peace — including Kashmir — can be resolved. The history spread over more than 70 decades, proves this is only a wishful thinking.

My lines could be best understood when one reads what Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has said. He said pointblank that lasting peace in the sub-continent will remain elusive until the resolution of the Kashmir issue. He also stressed that it was time for India and Pakistan to "bury the past and move forward".

Let me say that both the countries have remained hostage to the disputes and issues. The Kashmir issue is obviously at the heart of this. It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of rapprochement will remain susceptible to derailment.

Chinese Foreign Minister in Iran for strategic talks

Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi arrived in Tehran on Friday for talks with senior Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said assessing ways to strengthen strategic partnership and sharing views about regional and international issues will feature high in the talks.

The Ministry also said the two-day visit of Wang is a “step toward strengthening comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.”

Prospects of long-term cooperation and the ways to implement comprehensive strategic partnership will be the main topic of talks between Zarif and Wang, the ministry added.

Concurrent with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relationship between Tehran and Beijing, the two chief diplomats will also inaugurate an exhibition on historical documents about cooperation between the two countries on Saturday.

The two foreign ministers also plan to sign a comprehensive cooperation document between Islamic Republic of Iran and People’s Republic of China.

Wang is the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to pay an official visit to Iran since Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit in 2016, Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, told the Global Times on Friday. 

Hua also called Iran a key country on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and one of the major oil exporters to China.

The nuclear issue will also be a key topic during the visit, according to Hua.

"The withdrawal of the Trump administration from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a big blow to Iran's economy. In fact, Iran wants the United States to return to the deal, and China can coordinate with it," the former ambassador said.

The visit Chinese Foreign Minister has been scheduled days after top diplomats from China and the United States agreed at high-level talks in Alaska that Iran was one of the issues on which they could work together, despite their many differences, including on human rights in Xinjiang.

Security and stability in West Asia

In an interview with Al Arabiya on Wednesday, Wang proposed five initiatives to achieve security and stability in West Asia, noting that getting rid of geopolitical competition among great powers is the fundamental way to end the chaos. 

As for the Iran nuclear issue, Wang pointed out that the US should take concrete measures to ease unilateral sanctions against Iran and its ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ over third parties, while Iran should resume fulfilling its nuclear commitments.

At the same time, Wang said, the international community should support the efforts of regional countries to establish a West Asia zone free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

All parties should discuss and formulate a route and timetable for the resumption of implementation of the JCPOA in accordance with the merits of the development of the Iran nuclear issue, Wang said, according to the Global Times. 

China and Russia say US should return to JCPOA unconditionally

In the meeting between Wang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday, the two senior diplomats said the United States should unconditionally return to the JCPOA as soon as possible and revoke the unilateral sanctions imposed against Iran. 

Only China can act as a ‘peace-broker’ in the Iran nuclear issue, said Li Haidong, a professor of international relations at China Foreign Affairs University, "especially after China has exchanged ideas with the US in Alaska, then with Russia and then with Iran… and no other major international issue can be separated from China's participation and coordination."

Foreign Minister Wang started his tour of West Asia on Wednesday. He first visited Saudi Arabia and then Turkey. After concluding visit to Iran, he will fly to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and make a working visit to Oman.

South China Morning Post said the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and alliances will be high on agenda of Wang’s visit to West Asia.

No one seems serious in floating ship stuck in Suez Canal

Having lived and worked for nearly seventy years in a third world country, I often tend to buy conspiracy theories. I have been following Evergreen story since Tuesday, now I am beginning to arrive at two conclusions: 1) grounding of the ship was not an accident and 2) all the efforts are being made to prolong blockade of Suez Canal. You may laugh at my insanity, but please give me a patient reading.

To begin with, I am still unable to swallow the bitter pill that the ship of this size and weight has grounded because of bad weather and dust storm.  This could have never happened unless the ship was moving without escorting tug boats.

The time already taken shows that there is no urgency, some giant oil companies and tycoons of the shipping industry are adamant at prolonging the blockade. It may also be doubted that some ruthless elements are also bent upon punishing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and even Japan.

“Time is the deciding factor here. The ship itself is undamaged, but there is massive consequential damage from the blockade,” said Peter Berdowski, chief executive of Boskalis.

As stated earlier, there is deliberate effort not to rescue the ship. The first and most effort should have been to lessen the load of the ship, removing the containers and all the less imported baggage.

Officials involved in the operation say, the most obvious first step will be to remove large fuel and ballast to lighten the vessel, in combination with dredging away sand and to then attempt to pull it afloat.

It is also said that if those initial measures fail and the ship remains stuck, it will need to have its cargo of several thousand shipping containers removed, a job that could take weeks.

Contrary to reducing load on the ship, some dragging is being done which is not only damaging canal wall, but can certainly sink the ship deeper.  

I am amused to read lines like “While lives are not at stake this time, the vast economic interests in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes make the urgency of the situation critical”.

The salvage company says, “It needs to come up with a plan that is acceptable to the ship owner, insurance companies, and the Egyptian, state-owned Suez Canal authority”.

“It is a difficult puzzle, because the ship is currently being strained by unnatural forces. We don’t want it to tip or tear in half during the salvage,” says the salvage company.

To conclude, I refer to Clemens Schapeler with global logistics platform Transporeon said, “I think the most likely outcome is that it will be refloated on Sunday or Monday. But the worst case (stuck for weeks) is a real possibility.”

Anti Modi demonstrations erupt in Bangladesh

Two-day tour of Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi to Bangladesh starts on Friday. Earlier, leaders from Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives have attended the festivities, which started on 17th March.

Modi’s visit is part of 10-day celebrations of the Golden Jubilee of Bangladesh independence. This also marks Birth Centenary of the nation's founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

During his visit, Modi is scheduled to visit two temples in southern rural districts, including the birthplace of a top Hindu reformer who has large number of followers in the Indian West Bengal and Bangladesh.

To display their displeasure some factions staged anti-Modi demonstration in Dhaka. The protesters accused Modi of stoking religious tensions and inciting anti-Muslim violence in the Indian state of Gujarat in 2002, which left about 1,000 people dead. Modi was Gujarat's chief minister at the time of the deadly religious riots.

On Thursday, student organizations under the banner of ‘Progressive Student Alliance’ were demonstrating against Modi’s visit.They were allegedly attacked by Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) activists at Dhaka University campus.

 “Some 40 protesters were injured, including 18 hospitalized with injuries from police beatings and rubber bullets,” Bin Yamin Molla, a senior official of the Student Rights Council, which organized the protest, told AFP.

Witnesses said several hundreds of BCL men with local weapons were seen at the Teachers Students Centre (TSC).

Earlier in the day, Jubo Odhikar Parishad activists clashed with police in the city’s Motijheel area while protesting against the Indian prime minister’s visit.

The Parishad, youth front of former vice president of Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) Nurul Haque Nur’s organization, blocked the roads in the Motijheel area in the afternoon.

The clashes started when the law enforcing agencies tried to stop the demonstrators.

Suez Canal may remain closed for days and weeks

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA), which had allowed some vessels to enter the canal in the hope the blockage could be cleared, said it had temporarily suspended all traffic on Thursday.

“We can’t exclude it might take weeks, depending on the situation,” Peter Berdowski, CEO of Dutch company Boskalis which is trying to free the ship, told the Dutch television program “Nieuwsuur”.

A total of 156 large container ships, tankers carrying oil and gas, and bulk vessels hauling grain have backed up at either end of the canal, Egypt’s Leith Agencies said, creating one of the worst shipping jams seen for years.

“It is like an enormous beached whale. It’s an enormous weight on the sand. We might have to work with a combination of reducing the weight by removing containers, oil and water from the ship, tug boats and dredging of sand.”

Shipping experts say that if the blockage is not cleared in the coming days, some shipping may re-route around Africa, which would add roughly a week to the journey.

“Every port in Western Europe is going to feel this,” Leon Willems, a spokesman for Rotterdam Port, Europe’s largest, said. “We hope for both companies and consumers that it will be resolved soon. When these ships do arrive in Europe, there will inevitably be longer waiting times.”

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the biggest impact was on container shipping, but there were also a total of 16 laden crude and product oil tankers due to sail through the canal and now delayed.

The tankers were carrying 870,000 tons of crude and 670,000 tons of clean oil products such as gasoline, naphtha and diesel, it said.

According to oil analytics firm Vortexa, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the top two exporters of oil through the canal, while India and China are the main importers.

Joanna Konings, senior economist, International Trade Analysis at Dutch bank ING, said the impact on the world economy would be limited if it did not drag on since the container shipping industry was used to days of delays.

But Germany’s BDI industry association was concerned. Deputy Managing Director Holger Loesch said earlier delays were already impacting production, with industries depending on raw materials or construction supply deliveries particularly affected.

About 16% of Germany’s chemicals imports arrive by ship via the Suez Canal and the chief economist for the association of German chemicals and pharmaceuticals producers VCI, Henrik Meincke, said they would be affected with every day of blockage.

Bernhard Schulte Ship Management (BSM), the technical manager of Ever Given, said dredgers were working to clear sand and mud from around the blocked vessel while tugboats in conjunction with Ever Given’s winches work to shift it.

Japanese ship owner Shoei Kisen apologized for the incident and said work on freeing the ship, which was heading to Europe from China, “has been extremely difficult” and it was not clear when the vessel would float again.

The owner and insurers face claims totaling millions of dollars even if the ship is refloated quickly, industry sources said on Wednesday. Shoei Kisen said the hull insurer of the group is MS&AD Insurance Group while the liability insurer is UK P&I Club.

Is Israel heading towards fifth election?

In Israeli politics, there is no formal draft for future stars, but there are definitely parties that look ahead rather than at the present. That has never been truer than with Tuesday election. Strategists in parties across the political spectrum admit behind the scenes that with all due respect to the current race, they are actually focusing on yet another election.

Initial exit polls on Tuesday night indicated that Netanyahu’s bloc had won 61 seats together with Naftali Bennett’s Yamina Party, and thus would be able to form a government, but the final results could end up being different.

It does not matter if the fifth election will take place in October 2021 or in 2025. What does matter to the parties is that the three-decade political career of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will eventually end and that will change everything.

They start with Bennett. While it initially looked like he would remain independent in the race, he instead chose to be careful not to leave the Right, even though it could have helped him win more seats in this election. 

Sources close to Bennett said he had in mind building himself up for the next election in the post-Netanyahu era. For that, he could not be the one who prevents the formation of a right-wing government.

The Center-Left similarly looked to the future. Rather than wasting a potentially stronger candidate in a potentially unwinnable fight against Netanyahu, leading figures in the camp said the time had come to run Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and finish him off with a loss.

Labor leader Merav Michaeli has spoken openly about using this election to build her up and rebuild Labor, in order to be ready for the next one.

The best example was the ultimate potential game-changer for this election, Gadi Eizenkot. He saw what Netanyahu did to his fellow former IDF chief of staff, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, and preferred to sit this race out and wait for post-Netanyahu era.

The Likud’s future leadership candidates, like Nir Barkat for instance, have also purposely been keeping a low profile.

Watching New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar collapse from 21 seats when the campaign began to five or six after challenging Netanyahu’s political powerhouse in this election, proved parties taking this election not too seriously were better off.

A stuck container ship brings maritime traffic to grinding halt in Suez Canal

A stuck container ship brings maritime traffic to grinding halt in Suez Canal A container ship lodged itself in the middle of the Suez Canal on Tuesday, forcing maritime traffic to grinding halt in one of the world’s busiest waterways.

The Panama-flagged container ship en route from China to the Netherlands has been stuck in the Egyptian canal, while traveling north from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.

Several tug boats have crowded around the ship for hours.

The ship blocked the Suez Canal in both directions, apparently causing other ships to wait for the Ever Given to move before continuing their passage.

The Egyptian government’s canal authority, and Taiwan-based ship operator Evergreen Marine, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Suez Canal is one of the busiest canals in the world, serving as a key link between Europe and Asia for container ships, oil tankers and other vessels. Millions of tons of cargo pass through it every day. The Egyptian government expanded the 150-year-old canal in 2015, in a bid to attract even more traffic and send more fees from shipping companies into government coffers.

Why Joe Biden is following collision policy?

There are ample evidences that the foreign policy of United States under Joe Biden is not any different from that of Donald Trump. These include maximum pressure campaign against Iran, sanctions on Venezuela, bombing of Syria, no change on Yemen and the list can continue. From the outside world the behavior and tough talk of US officials can be termed juvenile. It demonstrates lack of knowledge, wisdom and strategy.

The United States will take an uncompromising stance in talks with China in Alaska, officials said at the first face-to-face meetings between senior officials from the two rivals, but Beijing called for a reset to ties. Then, after days of viciousness against China, it finally dawned on Blinken that he needs China's help. Why, should China be kind to United States?

The same aggressive behavior is also evident towards Russia. Baseless accusations of Russian election interferences are followed with more sanctions and threats topped off with Biden calling Russia's President Putin a 'killer'. Why Biden can’t be called a killer, he ordered bombing at Syria.

Last week the French forces, issued an open letter to NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg in which it accused him of having acting solely in the interest of the US during the development of his NATO 2030 plan. The details show how NATO and the US have caused the bad relations with Russia.

It says the United States is using a fictional 'Russian threat' to pressure NATO countries into morphing into a global force, under its command and independent of the United Nations, to then use it against China. The real threat to Europe emerges from the US interferences in the Middle East and North Africa. The US led NATO is thereby becoming a danger for Europe.

The accusations France against the US go beyond anything one might hear from Moscow or Beijing. The next 'allied' nation that will have sound reason to turn hostile towards the US might well be Germany.

The Biden administration stepped up its rhetoric against a gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, calling on all those involved in the project to ‘immediately abandon’ their work.

“The Department reiterates its warning that any entity involved in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline risks US sanctions and should immediately abandon work on the pipeline,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

Nord Stream 2 is of vital importance to Germany's energy security. The German public was rather hostile to President Trump and Biden's victory was seen with relief, but when it sees how Biden pursues the same policies, and with a similar tone, it will turn on him. A more general 'anti-Americanism' would then arise.

The uncompromising and ever aggressive behavior the United States shows towards competitors as well as friends will not strengthen its position in the world. These rushed attempts to prevent the ending of its unipolar moment will only accelerate the move towards a new multilateral global system.

Iran demands immediate withdrawal of occupying US forces from Syria

Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Iran’s permanent Ambassador to the United Nations has demanded the United States to withdraw all of its occupying forces from Syria. 

Majid Takht-Ravanchi made this demand on Monday while addressing the United Nations Security Council. He emphasized that the sole solution to the crisis in Syria would be implementation of peace, confirming to international laws.

The Iranian Ambassador underlined that all foreign forces that are present in Syria without the Damascus government’s approval, particularly the American troops occupying parts of Syria, must leave the country as soon as possible.

“The Syrian people do not accept continued occupation of their soil or violation of their country’s sovereignty and the international community should not concede to it either, because it contravenes the most basic principles of international law,” he noted.

Takht-Ravanchi also strongly condemned frequent attacks by the US and Israel forces in Iraq and Syria, as these illegal measures only worsen the situation in an already tense region.

“The Syrian crisis has no military solution and the sole way to end it would be a peaceful one in total conformity to principles of international law and articles of the Charter of the United Nations,” he pointed out.

Takht-Ravanchi also called on the international community to put an end to Israel's military adventurism in the region.

Iran has long criticized presence of US military in Syria. In late February, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh condemned American attacks on areas east of Syria, saying the illegal bases run by American forces in the country are used to train terrorists for later use against the Syrian government.

“Illegal American bases on the Syrian soil are training terrorists and using them against the Damascus government,” Khatibzadeh said.

Speaking at a Security Council meeting on Syria in November, Takht-Ravanchi said the US is plundering the Syrian nation’s wealth and oil resources while supporting terrorist groups in the Arab country, calling for an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of American troops from the war-ravaged country.

Also in February, Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York condemned the brutal attacks of foreign-backed terrorists and illegal occupation as well as inhumane sanctions. 

Eshagh Al Habib, Deputy Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations, told the UN Security Council on February 25 that “For ten years, the Syrian people have utterly suffered from the brutal attacks of foreign-backed terrorists and illegal occupation, and in recent years, from inhumane sanctions.”

He noted, “The international community has a responsibility to help the Syrian people and government to overcome this crisis and to ensure Syria’s unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence. In this context, we call for the immediate withdrawal of all foreign forces that are present in Syria without the permission of its government. These and other aspects of the Syrian crisis have been extensively discussed in the Astana format meeting, held recently in Sochi, Russia, following which a joint statement was issued by Iran, Russia and Turkey. The three countries condemned the increasing terrorist activities in Syria and agreed to continue cooperation to ultimately eliminate Daesh, Al-Nusra Front and all other Security Council designated terrorist groups and their affiliates.”

Al Habib pointed out that these countries also expressed serious concern over the increased presence and terrorist activity of “Hayat Tahrir al- Sham” and other affiliated terrorist groups and the threat they pose to civilians inside and outside the de-escalation Idlib area.

The Iranian diplomat also took a jab at US sanctions on Syria, saying these sanctions will only prolong the crisis and inflict more pain on the Syrian people.

“The imposition of unilateral sanctions against Syria further exacerbates the situation and prolongs both the crisis and the sufferings of the people. Such sanctions are unlawful, inhumane and unjustifiable, and must therefore come to an immediate end,” he stressed. 

“Mounting political and economic pressures on Syria or making multiple preconditions for the peaceful settlement of the crisis has proven to be counterproductive. Reconstruction of the country and the return of refugees and displaced persons must go hand in hand with the political process. They are interlinked, mutually inclusive and mutually reinforcing,” Al Habib continued.

“Finally, Iran reiterates its commitment to political resolution of this crisis and will continue supporting the people and government of Syria to restore the unity and territorial integrity of their country,” he concluded.

Iran and Syria enjoy close relations. In Late February, Khatibzadeh traveled to Syria and held talks with Syrian officials and attended meetings of think tanks, media outlets and elites in the Arab country. The meetings were held in Damascus in line with Iran-Syria cooperation in public diplomacy, media and cultural arenas.

Israel Elections: President Rivlin to pick new coalition head with care

Learning from the past experiences, this time, President Reuven Rivlin intends to use all the time at his disposal to appoint a candidate to build a new governing coalition. It was told by President's Residence Director General, Harel Tuvi to The Jerusalem Post in an interview on Sunday. 

Tuesday's election results will be formally presented to Rivlin by the Head of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Judge Uzi Vogelman on 31st March 2021, after counting around 600,000 double ballots of emissaries, soldiers, prisoners, those quarantined and sick from COVID-19 and those returning from abroad on Election Day and voting at Ben-Gurion International Airport. 

"No action will be taken until the results will be clear, official and final," Tuvi said.

Rivlin will then begin consultations with faction representatives to hear their recommendations about who should form the next government. 

The deadline for Rivlin to give his 28-day mandate to build a coalition is 7th April 2021. Sources close to him said that unlike after other elections when he expedited the process, this time, he will take his time to help facilitate it better. 

"After the first couple of elections, he didn't wait for the final results because the public interest was to end uncertainty as soon as possible," Tuvi said.

"This time, there are double envelopes and other complications from corona, so the president said he would not start the consultations until we really know the official results," he said.

"This time he will also encourage the parties to talk among themselves first and let the situation settle."

The first candidate who receives a mandate to form a government can ask for a two-week extension. If there is a second candidate, he received no more than four weeks.

Rivlin's term is set to end on 9th July 2021. It is possible a new president-elect could be chosen by the Knesset while a second candidate has the mandate. But Tuvi said Rivlin's decisions and timetable will not be impacted by the race for his successor.

Tuvi denied reports that Rivlin would not consider giving the mandate to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu due to Netanyahu's criminal indictments.  

"The president will be guided by the decision of the nation," Tuvi said.

"He has wide considerations and can choose among many options but he cannot go against a clear decision by the nation."

Israeli Prime Minister promises direct flights to Saudi Arabia

Israeli Prime, Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to launch direct flights to Saudi Arabia if he is victorious in Tuesday’s elections. “I’m going to bring you direct flights from Tel Aviv to Mecca,” Netanyahu said in an interview with Channel 13 on Saturday night. 

Speculation had always been high in the last year of the Trump administration that such ties would come to fruition under the rubric of the Abraham Accords, in which Israel established normalized relations with four Arab states.

But normalized ties with Saudi Arabia never materialized. Saudi Arabia has granted Israel flyover rights, something it had denied to the Jewish state in the past.

In his Channel 13 interview, Netanyahu touted those four agreements and promised that four more deals would be finalized. It was a pledge that he made last week as well.

He brushed aside criticism with respect to the failed and ultimately canceled meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Netanyahu had been scheduled to fly to the United Arab Emirates for the meeting, but first it was canceled because of a diplomatic snafu with Jordan. As a result of the fiasco, Amman would not let an Emirati plane leave Amman for Tel Aviv to collect Netanyahu for the visit.

The UAE rejected an attempt to reschedule the visit, explaining that they did not want to be part of Netanyahu’s reelection campaign.

When pressed by Hasson about whether ties with the UAE were problematic, Netanyahu said, “Our relations with the UAE are very strong” and pointed to the UAE pledge to invest NIS 40 billion in Israel.

Netanyahu in his Channel 13 interview also touted his close ties with both US President Joe Biden, who he has known for over three decades, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The relationship with Putin, he said, was particularly important when it came to ensuring Israel Air Force’s ability to operate aerially in Syria, so that it could attack Iranian-related targets and prevent Tehran from entrenching itself in that country.

When asked about the impact of the US-Russian tensions on his relations with both countries, he said that he knew how to stay the course in both cases.

Trade between Iran and SCO members exceeds US$23 billion

The value of trade between Iran and the members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) rose to US$23.165 billion during the first 11 months of the current Iranian calendar year. This was disclosed by Ruhollah Latifi, spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) announced.

Iran has cross-border trade with 11 key member states and observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and Belarus. Among these the largest volume of trade was with China amounting to US$15.518 billion, the IRICA spokesman stated.

He put Iran’s export to the SCO members at 33.339 million tons valued at US$11.173 billion during the period under review. Out of this the highest amount of export has been to China, amounting to US$6.724 billion and the lowest was to Mongolia, amounting to US$412,809.

Iran’s imports from the member countries weighing 8.408 million tons was worth US$11.991 billion Latifi said, adding the highest amount of imports was from China (US$8.793 billion), and the lowest was from Mongolia (US$2.448 million).

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic and security alliance. Its creation was announced on 15th June 2001 in Shanghai, China by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The SCO Charter was signed in June 2002 and became effective on 19th September 2003.

Long ten years of Syrian crisis

As Syrians mark the 10-year anniversary of the 2011 uprising, it is event that the crisis is far from over. After a decade of conflict that has been supported and proliferated by super powers, Syria is devastated. At least half a million are dead, over 100,000 are missing and 12.5 million — over half the population — are displaced.

With an economy crippled by years of war, over 90% of Syrians now live below the poverty line. More than half of Syria’s basic infrastructure has been destroyed or rendered unusable and reconstruction remains a distant fantasy.

Though, the nationwide hostilities appears to have subsided, Syria remains plagued by multiple conflicts — each driven by its own unique local dynamics.

Areas recaptured by Syrian regime in 2018, are now the most impoverished and violent, evident from more than 400 attacks recorded in Daraa Governorate in 2020. Though, ISIS’s territorial caliphate has been defeated in March 2019, the group is now undertaking a methodical resurgence across Syria’s central desert.

ISIS attacks have consistently increased in scale, scope, and potency since early 2020. Though, cease-fires remain largely in place in the northwest and northeast, a single spark could swiftly precipitate crippling violence. And above all of this, Israeli aircraft continue to confront a persistent Iranian campaign to convert its military gains in Syria.

This is only a glimpse of the true scale of destruction, chaos, violence, and human suffering that a decade of conflict has caused in Syria. The international community has failed in Syria, abandoning the country and its people to a level of violence and suffering not seen in decades.

In the early years, the response was indifference, indecision, and contradiction. The response mostly remained focused on tackling symptom of Syria’s crisis, but catalyzing emergence of new conflict. The efforts failed in removing the root cause of Syria’s crisis.

If there was one diplomatic line that has been repeated most often on Syria, “There is no military solution to the Syrian crisis.” The crisis is not a self-contained local dispute. In fact, the crisis has transformed the world in profoundly negative ways like no other conflict has done in decades

There is demand that the United States should try to resolve the crisis, but the super power does have the solution. Four years under President Donald Trump has debased American leverage. UN Special Envoy has rightly stressed that a new multilateral format is needed. Without the highest level of diplomatic investment, failure is again a guarantee.

Portraying Iran a threat for United States is Israel’s biggest scam

It is evident that since Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, United States has kept the country under sanctions that is: 1) small, 2) half the world away, 3) has never attacked United States, 4) does not have nuclear weapons and 5) whose contribution to regional instability doesn’t look any worse than that of Israel or Saudi Arabia.

It is in Israel’s interest to portray Iran a threat to United States and the world. Keeping the US engaged in Israel’s proxy war with Iran keeps the attention on a supposedly dire threat, instead Israel’s atrocities against Palestinians. On top of all it serves Benjamin Netanyahu in his effort to stay in power and out of jail by coining one enemy after another and keeping the US presidents under his influence.

Israel’s supporters in the US Congress keep on playing the mantra. Lately, Senators Bob Menendez and Lindsey Graham have sent Joe Biden a letter containing the astounding claim, “Outside of its nuclear program, Iran continues to pose a threat to the US and international security.” The Israel lobby group AIPAC tweeted on Wednesday, Iran’s determination to further destabilize the Middle East, develop nuclear weapons and build ballistic missiles brings the world closer to war.

Wendy Sherman, Biden’s choice for Deputy Secretary of State helped negotiated the Iran deal, or JCPOA, but Menendez said, “Returning to the JCPOA without concrete steps to address Iran’s other dangerous and destabilizing activities will be insufficient.”

The Iran deal was a signal accomplishment of the Obama administration in setting the United States on the path toward amicable relationship with Iran. It took years for Obama to build the deal; it has been destroyed not only by Donald Trump and his late patron Sheldon Adelson, but by a bunch of Democrats.

Even if Biden gets back into the deal, as all hope, it is going to take many months or years and a lot of political capital to make it a reality. It is also evident that liberal bunch of Israel lobby is working hard on Biden’s behalf, but they can’t get unanimity inside the Democratic Party. The AIPAC implants are campaigning against the Iran deal.

The only thing to be said about all the efforts to destroy the deal is that they originate from the Israel lobby. Because it was such a “strong deal,” there was only one nation on earth that opposed it, Israel, Obama had said that in a famous speech when he was trying to seal the deal in summer 2015. But the President also said it would be an abrogation of my constitutional duty as American president to take Israel’s side.

The pity is that the US media and political system fall again and again fall of Israel’s scam. Recently, “60 Minutes” aired a segment highlighting Iranian-backed attacks on American troops in Iraq as a grave insult to the US honor. They did this without ever questioning the US presence in Iran’s neighbor, let alone NATO-led criminal attack on Iraq.

It is amazing that Netanyahu was able to address a joint session of Congress in opposition to the Iran deal back in 2015, while many Democrats were in the attendance. As Obama said, foreign policy touching on Israel was taken as a domestic issue, when the Israeli government is opposed to something; people in the US take notice.

Netanyahu is able to make such demands because as Ben Rhodes, Obama’s former foreign policy aide, explained recently, Israeli lobbyists are deeply involved in policymaking. Ten to twenty American Jews who invariably took the Israeli government’s position came in and out of the White House all the time, Rhodes said.

While Congress people parroted an Israeli script on the latest radioactive isotopes found in the Parchin military facility, and when the deal actually got close, they warned Rhodes that AIPAC was going to cancel their fundraisers. Political money was at the heart of the influence.

When Benjamin Netanyahu said in Hebrew 20 years ago that he didn’t worry about the peace process because “America is a thing you can move very easily,” he was talking about the power of the Israel lobby.

The United States was easily played, at the highest level. When Obama clashed with Netanyahu not over Iran but the creation of a Palestinian state, Democrats in Congress bailed on Obama, and Rhodes wrote in his memoir, “I was given a list of leading Jewish donors to call to reassure them of Obama’s pro-Israel bona fides.”

Now Rhodes tells us that he feels “shame” that the Obama administration “pretended” that Netanyahu supported the creation of a Palestinian state, which he never did, because it was politically dangerous to alienate the rightwing Israeli Prime Minister.

The good news is that the Israel lobby is split and liberal Zionist organizations such as J Street and Americans for Peace Now have vigorously supported the Iran deal and are trying to give Joe Biden some of the Jewish political capital he needs to take on Menendez.

But Israel is setting the terms for the US foreign policy… Just as it did when it needed Israel as battleship in the Middle East against the Soviet Union… Just as it did when the cold war ended and United Staes needed the only democracy in the Middle East in its war against “radical Islam”… There’s always some geopolitical agenda that Israel is advancing. Israel gets to determine the narrative.

Palestinians are the biggest victims of the Iran shell game. For nearly 75 years the world has been promising them self-determination in their own land, and the US has made sure that that would not happen, while Israel takes more and more of the country for expansion.

Netanyahu dragging Mossad into politics

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ahead of yet another election, seems to be following every trick in the book. It has been reported that he would like to have Mossad Director Yossi Cohen continue in some governmental capacity after his term ends this summer. Rumors persist that Netanyahu would like to see the spy chief join his political party.

This would be highly unusual, even though there is a history of former generals and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chiefs entering politics, since Mossad chiefs are supposed to have a cooling-off period. 

In response to the reported announcement by Netanyahu, Cohen released an even stranger statement, denying any political affiliation with the prime minister or his Likud Party. 

Netanyahu has worked to erode many aspects of Israeli democracy over his nearly 12 consecutive years in power, centralizing power at the Prime Minister’s Office and taking away key decisions from the Foreign and Defense ministries. He conducts many policies himself, seemingly without even consulting others in his coalition. 

Cohen has been a phenomenal head of Mossad. He has been praised by those who know him and the organization he is currently leading. He is said to have a good relationship with the prime minister, unlike some former intelligence heads such as Meir Dagan, who slammed Netanyahu repeatedly in 2016.

In August 2019, reports emerged that Netanyahu viewed Cohen or former ambassador to the US Ron Dermer as “fit to lead Israel” after he leaves office. Netanyahu has often heralded the credentials of the Mossad over the last years, lauding it for bringing out the secret nuclear archive from Iran and helping in the nation’s battle against the novel coronavirus. 

However, it is not clear whether releasing this information has helped Israel or the Mossad, or helped Netanyahu’s political fortunes. Politicizing the organization or even releasing information that may improve Netanyahu’s political standing is a dangerous and toxic mix of national security and politics.

The attempt to use the new relations with the United Arab Emirates has continued unabated, to the point of harming relations with Jordan and embarrassing Israel. Normally state visits are planned well in advance and have a large entourage. In Israel, Netanyahu does things without even consulting his foreign and defense ministers, as though it were a one-man, not even one-party, state.

Remembering Halabja chemical carnage of 16th March 1988 by Iraqi dictator Saddam

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has criticized duality of Western policies towards Middle East and West Asia. He condemned them for supplying chemical weapons to former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, which Saddam used against Kurdish people in northern Iraq on 16th March 1988.

“16th March 2021 is the 33rd anniversary of the chemical carnage in Halabja. Some care not to remember those who provided Saddam with the deadly chemicals, which killed over 5,000 innocent civilians. Still, want to talk about ‘malign regional behavior’, the Iranian foreign minister said in a tweet.

The tweet came in under heightened tensions between Iran and the West over the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The United States withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 under Donald Trump. Now Joe Biden says that reviving the nuclear deal is not enough and that other issues such as Iran’s influence in the region and its defensive missile program must be included in any future talks, something that Iran firmly rejects.  

The West claims that Iran’s influence in the region is malign, but Iran officials say it’s the United States that pursues malign behavior in the region. 

In March 2019, Zarif had said the Iranian and Kurdish brothers in Iraq will never forget the Halabja and Sardasht chemical attacks. “First they denied it happened—then they blamed Iran. When it was clear it was their own ally, using their own chemical weapons, they were silent. The West may like to forget about horrors of Halabja and Sardasht—31 years ago today—but neither we nor our Kurdish brethren, ever will,” Zarif tweeted at the time. 

On March 16, 1988, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein ordered his air force to attack Halabja in northern Iraq with chemical bombs, using nerve agents such as VX and mustard gas to kill thousands of innocent civilians. The attack killed between 3,200 and 5,000 people and injured 7,000 to 10,000, most of them civilians.

The Halabja attack was part of the Al-Anfal Campaign in northern Iraq. The attack has been recognized as a distinct event of genocide conducted against the Kurdish people by the Saddam. The Iraqi High Criminal Court recognized the Halabja massacre as an act of genocide on March 1, 2010.

In March 2020, Iran’s Consul General in Sulaymaniyah, Mehdi Shoushtari, said that the Iraqi Baath regime’s chemical attack on the Kurdish city of Halabja in northern Iraq was a “big anti-human tragedy.”

“Undoubtedly, this criminal incident against the innocent people of Halabja by a criminal regime through using chemical weapons manufactured by certain Western countries, which make claims about defending human rights, was one of the biggest anti-human tragedies,” he said in a message to Halabja Governor Azad Tofigh.

Shoushtari also said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran fulfilled its Islamic and humanitarian duty in this respect and supported the people of Halabja. These supports continued in different periods of time during history such as fighting terrorism and extremism.”

Widening breach between Israel and Jordan

Israeli ties with Jordan have not been good for a long time. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and King Abdullah do not publicly meet and do not publicly speak. It looks as if Israel’s relations with its neighbor are non-existent; there is barely any trade, tourism, or diplomatic cooperation.

The reasons behind the tension vary. There is the Palestinian issue and lack of progress on the peace track, which the King seems to blame on Netanyahu. There is continued settlement construction which the King blames on Netanyahu. There are other issues like Jordanian concern that the Hashemite Kingdom is losing its hold over al-Aqsa Mosque as well as the way Netanyahu gave a hero’s welcome to an Israeli security guard who shot and killed two Jordanians in Amman in 2017.

The origins of the latest round can be found last Wednesday when Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah had planned to visit al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount following coordination with Israel on his security. However, the prince arrived at the Israeli border with more armed guards than had been agreed on, Israeli sources said. The additional guards were not permitted to enter Israel and Hussein canceled his visit.

As a result – and possibly in response – Jordan canceled the permission it had given Israel for Netanyahu’s plane to pass through its airspace on its way to the United Arab Emirates where he was supposed to meet on Thursday with the UAE leader and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

As a result, Netanyahu had to cancel what was supposed to have been a historic first visit to the UAE. It was the fourth time the visit was canceled or postponed, not exactly a positive sign when it comes to building new relations between the two countries.

Israel’s decision to prevent a large number of armed Jordanians from entering the Temple Mount was likely done to try and preserve an image of Israeli sovereignty over the holy site. In response, and due to the insult, the Jordanians banned Netanyahu’s plane for the same reason, if you don’t let us into your sovereign territory, we won’t let you into our sovereign territory.

All of this is bad for Israel, bad for Jordan and bad for the region. One of the pillars of stability for Israel over the last few decades has been the fact that it does not face a conventional military threat from the East due to the peace it has with Jordan. As a result, Israel has been able to focus its military where it really needs to – from Gaza in the South to Hezbollah and Syria in the North.

Jordan has also gained from its peace with Israel. It improved its relations with the United States, began to purchase American military hardware and reaps benefits from the close military relationship between Jerusalem and Amman.

For too long, the peace between Israel and Jordan has been cold. It has existed almost exclusively on a government-to-government level with very little public expression or people-to-people exchange.

Normalization between Israel and the UAE shows what is possible but also the type of investment that is needed to make it work. Israel and Jordan need to set aside their differences and reestablish common ground. They will not agree on everything, but working together will be more beneficial for the two countries.

Biden not likely to take any bold action against Iran or Saudi Arabia

Within a very short span of time, it has become evident that President of United States, Joe Biden is not likely to take any bold actions, especially with regard to the Middle East. 

Khashoggi killing was a test case for Biden, who had promised to penalize the Saudi crown prince, but his administration exempted him. This raises serious questions about his proclamation of upholding human rights.

In his election campaign, Biden pledged to reverse Trump's policies and make fundamental changes in US foreign policy. Some observers doubt he can make any significant difference. There is hardly any difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to foreign policy of the United States. The conservative-liberal divide appears more significant when it comes to domestic policies.

Biden administration has imposed a ban on some Saudi officials for the Khashoggi killing. But it was not extended to bin Salman. Many believe Biden is not serious when he is talking about human rights, especially with reference to Saudi Arabia.

It may not be wrong to say human rights issues never determine the US foreign policy, it is just a propaganda tools. The mantra is used against hostile states and not the friendly ones. Saudi Arabia is still a US ally and the US does not want to undermine its relations with Riyadh.

It was the United States that pulled out of JCPOA unilaterally in 2018, but Biden administration is not taking concrete steps to rejoin and lifting the sanctions imposed on Iran unilaterally. Biden wants to use the existing sanctions to force Iran to agree to talks on other issues.

Biden policies towards Iran seem even more confusing because he is trying to keep Trump's sanctions in place as well as talking about diplomacy. He wants to force Iran to make some basic concessions, such as reducing its missile program and changing its regional strategy. Biden wants to achieve these goals through diplomacy. Trump, too, wanted to talk to Iran, provided Tehran agreed to his conditions.

Presidents of United States are generally more receptive to Israeli Mantra. Israel has been advising the US not to return to the JCPOA without significant concessions from Tehran. Some hardliners in Israel still hope to trigger a military confrontation between Iran and the United States.

Israel’s military chief has warned of a new plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Some Iraqi groups have claimed that Israel is behind some provocative attacks on US military bases in the Iraqi territory. All this is aimed at derailing the process of revival of JCPOA.