Yang Jiechi warns United States to stop meddling in Chinese internal affairs

Yang Jiechi, Director, Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party has called Beijing and Washington to put relations back on a predictable and constructive path, saying the United States should stop meddling in China's internal affairs, Hong Kong and Tibet.

Yang Jiechi is the highest ranking Chinese leader to speak on Sino-US relations since President Joe Biden took office.

Under the Trump administration, the US relations with China plunged to their lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1979, as both sides clashed over issues ranging from trade and technology to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang, and the South China Sea.

While reassuring the United States that China has no intention to challenge or replace the US position in the world, Yang stressed that no force can hold back China's development.

"The United States should stop interfering in Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and other issues regarding China's territorial integrity and sovereignty," Yang said, defining these as issues concerning China's core interests and national dignity.

Speaking at an online forum organized by the National Committee on US-China Relations in Beijing, Yang said China never meddles with US internal affairs, including its elections.

Yang, whose position in the ruling Communist Party gives him more influence than even the Foreign Minister, also urged the Biden administration not to abuse the concept of national security in trade.

"We in China hope that the United States will rise above the outdated mentality of zero-sum, major-power rivalry and work with China to keep the relationship on the right track," he said.

Yang reasserted that China is prepared to work with the United States to move the relationship forward along a track of "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation."

The word "cooperation" appeared 24 times in his speech. He suggested that US firms could gain from an estimated US$22 trillion worth of exports to China in the coming decade.

Bangladesh rejects Al Jazeera report

Reportedly, Bangladesh has dismissed Al Jazeera news channel’s Monday’s report titled “All the Prime Minister’s Men” calling it as “false and defamatory” and a desperate “smear campaign” instigated by extremists and their allies, working in London and elsewhere.

“The report is nothing more than a misleading series of innuendos and insinuations in what is apparently a politically motivated “smear campaign” by notorious individuals associated with the Jamaat-e-Islami extremist group,” a foreign ministry statement said here today.

The Jamaat-i-Islami extremist group has been opposing the progressive and secular principles of Bangladesh since its very birth as an independent nation in 1971, it added.

The foreign ministry said Dhaka regrets that Al Jazeera had allowed itself to become an instrument for their malicious political designs aimed at destabilizing the secular democratic government of Bangladesh with a proven track record of extraordinary socio-economic development and progress.

The statement noted that the main “source” of Al Jazeera’s allegations is an alleged international criminal claimed to be a “psychopath” by Al-Jazeera itself.

“There is not a shred of evidence linking the prime minister and other state institutions of Bangladesh to this particular individual, and it is highly irresponsible for an international news channel to draw conclusions on the basis of the words of a mentally unstable person,” said the statement.

Pointing that the report’s historical account failed to even mention the horrific genocide in 1971, in which Jamaat perpetrators killed millions of Bengali civilians and raped more than two hundred thousand Bengali women, the statement said, this is the reflection of the political bias in Al Jazeera’s coverage.

It also noticed that the principal commentator of the report David Bergman was convicted by International Crimes Tribunal Bangladesh for challenging the official death toll of 1971 Liberation War.

“It is also not surprising that the report aligns with the string of anti-Bangladesh propaganda habitually orchestrated by a few convicted absconding criminals and discredited individuals patronized by Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, which on certain occasions have conspired with international extremist groups and news media specially the Al Jazeera,” said the statement.

 

 

Nuclear weapons are in contradiction to our ideological views, says Zarif

If Iran wanted a nuclear weapon it would have built one already, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in an interview with CNN published on Tuesday. 

"If we wanted to build a nuclear weapon we could have done it some time ago," Zarif told Christiane Amanpour. "But we decided that nuclear weapons are not, would not augment our security and are in contradiction to our, eh, ideological views. And that is why we never pursued nuclear weapons."

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC that if Iran violated additional restrictions included in the 2015 nuclear deal it could obtain enough fissionable material for a bomb within "a matter of weeks". 

Zarif said that the uranium enriched by the Islamic Republic could immediately be scaled back to comply with the nuclear deal if the US lifts sanctions. "Eight thousand pounds of enriched uranium can go back to the previous amount in less than a day,” he claimed. 

The Biden administration, the Iranian foreign minister said, had a "limited window of opportunity" to re-enter the 2015 nuclear agreement.

"The time for the United States to come back to the nuclear agreement is not unlimited," he said. "The United States has a limited window of opportunity, because President Biden does not want to portray himself as trying to take advantage of the failed policies of the former Trump administration."

Zarif sketched out the path to overcome the impasse saying the EU foreign policy chief could "choreograph" the moves.

"There can be a mechanism to basically either synchronize it or coordinate what can be done," Zarif told CNN when asked in an interview how to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran. Each government wants the other to resume compliance first.

Zarif noted the agreement created a Joint Commission coordinated by the European Union foreign policy chief, now Josep Borrell. Borrell "can ... sort of choreograph the actions that are needed to be taken by the United States and the actions that are needed to be taken by Iran," Zarif told CNN.

The Commission includes Iran and the six other parties to the deal that were Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

 

Robert Malley appointment as Iran envoy attracts mixed response

Joe Biden has named Robert Malley as special envoy for Iran. He was a key member of former President Barack Obama's team that negotiated the nuclear accord with Iran and world powers, an agreement that Donald Trump abandoned in 2018, despite strong opposition from Washington's European allies.

Malley’s appointment puts him at the forefront of Biden's efforts to find a way to deal with Iran after years of worsening relations under former President Donald Trump, who not only pulled out of a 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran, but also re-imposed crippling economic sanctions.

When Malley's name first surfaced in news reports as a leading candidate for the post, he drew criticism from some Republican lawmakers and pro-Israel groups who expressed concern that he would be soft on Iran and tough on Israel, but a number of foreign policy veterans rushed to his defense.

It's a positive sign from Biden that he's really willing to revitalize American diplomacy. For too long, US foreign policy has been militarily very muscular, but diplomatically very weak," Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) told Middle East Eye.

Toossi said the humiliations that Iran had faced in recent years - including the US departure from the JCPOA, the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh - make it difficult for the Iranian government to take the first step towards reviving the JCPOA.

Matt Duss, a foreign-policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, lauded Biden for refusing to back down in the face of attacks against Malley's candidacy.

"Great news, there's no one better than Rob to make this policy succeed, which is why the hardliners didn't like the pick," Duss wrote on Twitter. "Also very good that Biden stood strong with this choice and disregarded their smear campaign. It won't be their last."

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also praised the announcement, calling the nomination "great news". "Malley is a highly skilled and thoughtful negotiator with extensive knowledge and an empathic disposition - literally the polar opposite of every member of the previous administration’s Middle East team of clowns," Elgindy said in a Twitter post.

Senator Tom Cotton, a staunch conservative, had led criticism against Malley, accusing him of being sympathetic to the Iranian government and having "animus towards Israel".

Malley is an American lawyer, political scientist and specialist in conflict resolution, who was the lead negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He being once again tasked to bring the United States and Iran into compliance with the Iran deal abandoned by President Trump.

Previously, Malley was President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, a Washington, DC, committed to preventing wars. Prior to holding that title, he served at the National Security Council under Barack Obama from February 2014 until January 2017.

In 2015, the Obama administration appointed Rob Malley as its "point man" on the Middle East, leading the Middle East desk of the National Security Council. In November 2015, Malley was named as President Obama's new special ISIS advisor.

Malley is considered, by some, to be an expert on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and has written extensively on this subject advocating rapprochement with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. As Special Assistant to President Clinton, he was a member of the US peace team and helped organize the 2000 Camp David Summit.

Malley was criticized by supporters of Israel after co-authoring an article in the July 8, 2001 edition of The New York Review of Books arguing that the blame for the failure of the 2000 Camp David Summit should be divided among all three leaders who were present at the summit, Arafat, Barak, and Bill Clinton, not just Arafat, as was suggested by some mainstream policy analysts. Later, other scholars and former officials voiced views similar to those of Malley.

Malley and his views have come under attack from other critics, such as Martin Peretz of the magazine The New Republic, who has opined that Malley is "anti-Israel", a "rabid hater of Israel. No question about it” and that several of his articles in the New York Review of Books were "deceitful."

On the conservative webzine The American Thinker, Ed Lasky asserted that Malley "represents the next generation of anti-Israel activism."

 

 

 

 

  

Are Israel-US relations turning bitter after Joe Biden becomes President?

Reportedly, Joe Biden, President of United States has not called Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel as of Sunday; 11 days into his presidency.  Biden has called the leaders of Canada, Mexico, the UK, France, Germany, NATO, Russia and Japan, in that order, but not Netanyahu.

This not only surprises the analysts, but must be bothering Netanyahu, who had enjoyed exceptionally cordial as well as personal relationships with outgoing President, Donald Trump. 

Some quarters attribute the lack of a call between Biden and Netanyahu to Joe Biden’s priorities, which are mostly domestic in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an America that has increasingly disentangled itself from the Middle East in recent years.

However, it also comes at a time when Israeli officials feel a sense of urgency to communicate with Biden on his stated plan to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

Netanyahu, IDF Chief of Staff and others have said returning to the plan, with its sunset clauses would eventually allow Iran to attain nuclear weapons that would endanger Israel.

Blinken and others in the Biden administration have said they would speak with US allies in the region, including Israel, before Iran, but it was still too early for negotiations.

The history haunt Israelis because former US President, Barack Obama called Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas before calling the then Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert on his first day in office, indicating his emphasis on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Netanyahu was the third leader former president Donald Trump called, which reflected their close relationship.

“Biden is screening Netanyahu’s calls... Netanyahu is now reaping the rotten fruit of the rift he created with the Democrats,” Meretz leader MK Nitzan Horowitz wrote on Facebook.

“Israel must rehabilitate its relationship with the Democrats and the new administration and return to values of democracy, equality and peace,” he said, adding that Meretz was the only party that speaks the Democrats’ language.

According to former Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, “They’ll speak eventually, and [Netanyahu] will eventually go to Washington.” But regarding Biden’s phone calls, he said: “There’s a message in that order.”

Netanyahu congratulated Biden for winning the presidency about 12 hours after most of the other leaders with whom the president spoke. He also did not actually say in his message that Biden was president-elect and he followed it with praise for Trump, Oren said. “There’s a price to pay for that,” he said.

Oren was ambassador to the US (2009-13) during the Obama administration, when Biden was Vice President. Netanyahu and Biden are unlikely to have the mutual personal acrimony that poisoned the relationship with Obama, he said.

“They may not be as chummy as they used to be... but it won’t be like [Netanyahu] and Obama: That was very bad blood,” Oren said.

Biden administration sees Quad as fundamental foundation to build US policy on Indo-Pacific

The new Biden administration sees the Quad grouping comprising of the United States, India, Japan and Australia as a fundamental foundation upon which to build a substantial American policy in the strategically-vital Indo-Pacific region. National security advisor Jake Sullivan said at an event organized by the US Institute of Peace, a Congress-funded think-tank that the US will build on and carry forward the four-nation Quad grouping.

Quad and the Indo-Pacific policy of the Trump administration are one of the few policies that the Biden administration has said it will continue to build on, besides the Abraham Accords, Sullivan said.

“Those are in two different theaters in the world and two initiatives that you will see continuity and an effort to reinforce and carry forward steps that have been taken by the previous administration,” he said.

"When the first Accords with the UAE, Bahrain were announced, it was in the heat of a political campaign, a presidential campaign, and then candidate Biden made no bones about coming out saying: ‘I think this is a good thing. I think this is a positive thing',” he said.

Biden said consistently over the course of the last several months that he would like to carry forward this initiative, deepen the cooperation between the countries that have signed the accords, make real normalization that has taken root and add more countries, he said.

“He (Biden) sees that as being positive for security in the region, positive for economic development, in the region, and positive for America's national interest for many of the reasons that Robert laid out,” Sullivan said.

“So, one of the things that we will be doing in the coming weeks and months is thinking about how we make sure that the seeds that have now been planted actually grow into the full kind of cooperation across multiple dimensions and these relationships can move forward and how that can really help the United States advance our interests,” he said.

In November 2017, India, Japan, the United States and Australia gave shape to the long-pending proposal of setting up the "Quad" to develop a new strategy to counter China's aggressive behaviour in the strategically-vital Indo-Pacific region.

The evolving situation in the Indo-Pacific region in the wake of China's increasing military muscle flexing has become a major talking point among leading global powers. The US has been favouring making Quad a security architecture to check China's growing assertiveness.

China is engaged in hotly contested territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. Beijing has also made substantial progress in militarizing its man-made islands in the past few years.

Beijing claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea. But Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan have counterclaims. In the East China Sea, China has territorial disputes with Japan.

The South China Sea and the East China Sea are stated to be rich in minerals, oil and other natural resources. These are also vital to global trade. Although, the US lays no claims to the disputed waters, it has challenged China's growing territorial claims in the South China Sea by deploying warships and fighter jets to assert freedom of navigation and over flight patrols in the strategically-vital region.

Iranian Foreign Minister meets Taliban delegation in Tehran

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met on Sunday with a Taliban delegation led by deputy head of the group’s political bureau Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. In the meeting, Zarif welcomed the idea of formation of an all-inclusive government with the participation of all ethnic and political groups in Afghanistan, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“Political decisions could not be made in a vacuum, and the formation of an all-inclusive government must take place in a participatory process and by taking into account the fundamental structures, institutions and laws, such as the Constitution,” the statement quoted Zarif as saying in the meeting.

The chief Iranian diplomat expressed Iran’s readiness to facilitate dialogue among the Taliban, the Afghan government and other Afghan groups, noting, “The noble people of Afghanistan have been wronged. The war and occupation of Afghanistan have dealt heavy blows to the Afghan people.”

He expressed hope that the Taliban would focus efforts on an immediate end to the pains and problems of Afghan people so that the establishment of peace in Afghanistan would strip the outsiders of a pretext for occupation.

According to a Tasnim report, Zarif also voiced support for an all-inclusive Islamic government in Afghanistan.

“We support the formation of an all-inclusive Islamic government with the participation of all ethnicities and sects and consider it necessary for Afghanistan,” Zarif was quoted by Tasnim as telling the Taliban delegation. He underlined the need for the Taliban to avoid targeting the people of Afghanistan.

Zarif also told the Taliban delegation that the United States is not a good mediator.

The Taliban delegation, for its part, gave a report of the Afghan peace process and the intra-Afghan negotiations.

“Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar also noted that the relations between Afghanistan and Iran are based upon friendship and good neighborliness, expressing hope for the expansion of relations between the two countries with the establishment of peace and calm in Afghanistan,” the statement noted.

India upset with efforts to improve relations between Islamabad and Dhaka

The recent move of Pakistan to lift visa restrictions for Bangladeshi citizens and Dhaka’s request that Islamabad issue an apology for mass killings during its 1971 war of independence have raised concerns in India. 

Indians believe that any improvement in relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh will have implications for the complex geopolitical dynamics in South Asia, where India sees Bangladesh as an ally but Pakistan as a foe.

New Delhi also seeks to counter China’s growing influence in the region, which it deems its traditional area of influence.

India is propagating that China is behind Pakistan’s initiative to improve ties with Bangladesh. India also alleges that China wants Pakistan to activate its assets in Bangladesh.

India insists that China wants to develop its own support base among countries in India’s neighbourhood and use them against New Delhi, as part of its ‘string of pearls’ strategy.

For Bangladeshis, the long-sought apology from Pakistan for the 1971 genocide is a sensitive issue, and one necessary for relations to move forward. The liberation move which lasted nine months had led to a war between India and Pakistan.

Bangladesh has been demanding an apology from Pakistan. For the first time the request was conveyed formally, when Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Dhaka, Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, visited Bangladesh’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Shahriar Alam, for talks on strengthening economic cooperation. To Indian observers, the meeting between Alam and Siddiqui suggested a warming of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

At one stage the relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan were strained to the extent that both sides expelled each other’s diplomats, imposed visa bans on each other’s nationals. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina did not approve appointment of Pakistani High Commissioner to Dhaka for 20 months.

She accepted the appointment and in July 2020 and spoke to her counterpart, Prime Minister Imran Khan. In the diplomatic circle Hasina’s move was termed a positive development.

Bangladesh celebrates its 50th year of independence on March 26 and also the birth centenary of the country’s founding father, Mujibur Rahman, who is Hasina’s father. Analysts say that if Hasina succeeds in getting Pakistan’s apology it will be a prized feather in her cap.

Indian experts say Pakistan’s ability to tender an apology depended on Khan receiving support from the army and an Islamic group, both of which were implicated in atrocities during Bangladesh’s struggle of independence.

Indian instance is based on the role China had played in early seventies encouraging Bangladesh’s first government under Mujibur Rahman to come to terms with Islamabad. They also say Beijing had persuaded Rahman to drop his pursuit of alleged Pakistani war criminals in exchange for a seat at the United Nations, which Beijing had blocked unless Rahman acceded to its demands.

Meanwhile, India has tried to solidify its ties with Bangladesh, including by sending its top Foreign Service bureaucrat, Harsh Shringla, to Dhaka in August last year to assure Hasina of Delhi’s continued support after relations had been strained over the issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into India and the alleged persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh.

Saudi surprise production cut a wonderful gift to US oil producers

According to some analysts, oil prices have risen by 10% since the end of 2020 and 8% since the OPEC+ meeting two weeks ago, but the rally has nothing to do with the short-term oil demand outlook. It has been almost exclusively due to the decision of Saudi Arabia—the world’s top oil exporter and OPEC’s de facto leader—to cut an additional one million barrels per day (bpd) from its production in the first quarter.

Saudi Arabia, as well as major forecasters, expected oil demand in Q1 to continue to struggle as major economies in Europe and some parts of China are under renewed lockdowns to fight the spread of COVID-19.   

The Kingdom’s “wonderful surprise” to the oil industry, as its Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described the extra cut in a Bloomberg interview, lent support to oil prices while the outlook for Q1 demand continues to deteriorate, due to the spreading virus, strict lockdowns, and a slow start to vaccination programs.    

The Saudi ‘generosity’ signals that the Kingdom is willing to forgo short-term market share in order to prop up prices amid weak immediate demand, tighten the market faster, and wait for the opportunity to ramp up production once oil demand rebounds at some point in the second half of 2021.

Yet, in the process, the Saudis would incentivize increased activity in the US shale patch, which could abandon the promised restraint in spending, and increase production. Higher than currently estimated US oil supply could cap oil price gains and ruin the Saudi attempts to tighten the market.

The Saudi cut also signals growing divergence in oil price fixing policies between the two leaders of the OPEC+ pact, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Saudi Arabia looks more eager to see higher oil prices, even at the expense of losing more market share to US shale. Russia, which had pushed for another 500,000-bpd collective production increase from OPEC+ in February, has been wary for years that by cutting its own production and helping to support prices, it is actually boosting US oil output.  

International Energy Agency (IEA) has yet again cut its outlook on global oil demand for 2021, including revising down its Q1 demand projection by 600,000 bpd. Therefore, it seems Saudi Arabia has made the right call when it announced the extra one million bpd cut to its production for February and March. In terms of achieving higher oil prices and a tighter market going into the second half of 2021, the Saudi move looks right.

According to the IEA’s monthly report from this week, the OPEC+ group’s “more proactive production restraint looks set to hasten a drawdown in the global stock surplus.”

“Assuming OPEC+ achieves 100% compliance with the latest agreement, global oil stocks could draw by 1.1 mb/d, or 100 mb, in 1Q21, with the potential for much steeper declines during the second half of the year as demand strengthens,” the agency said.

But while Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says, “We are the guardian of this industry,” the Kingdom is (maybe inadvertently) helping US shale by ‘guarding’ the price of oil from collapsing when demand is weak, as it is this quarter.

Analysts, including OPEC and the IEA, say that the higher oil prices—thanks to Saudi Arabia—could provide a reason to the US shale patch to boost drilling activity more than anticipated earlier.

The “wonderful” Saudi gift to support the oil market could hinge on US oil producers resisting the temptation to increase production after WTI Crude prices hit this month US$50 a barrel mark for the first time since February 2020.  

US firms “seem committed to pledges made to keep production flat and instead use any price gain to pay down debt or to boost investor returns. If they stick to those plans, OPEC+ may start to reclaim the market share it has steadily lost to the US and others since 2016,” the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report.

Oil above $50 is set to create a chain reaction in the US shale patch, which could see cash from operations (CFO) rise by 32% this year. Shale producers in the Permian Midland, Permian Delaware, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and DJ basins could see their combined CFO increase to US$73.6 billion in 2021, up from an estimated US$55.7 billion in 2020, but still down from US$87 billion in 2019. Nevertheless, WTI Crude averaging above US$50 and the higher cash flow in the shale industry would allow producers to increase their activity spending.

The higher activity in the shale patch will be necessary just to keep US production flat, but above US$50 oil price could be tempting. Analysts expect a cautious ramp-up of activity, with shale oil production continuing to decline into the second half of 2021. Despite all the compelling arguments for restraint, the industry’s history suggests that increased cash flows generally get turned very quickly into new wells. 

 

Beijing decides not to recognize British National (Overseas) passport as travel document

In a surprise move, Beijing has declared it will stop recognizing British National (Overseas) passports as travel and identification documents from Sunday and warned of further actions in retaliation against Britain’s offer of a pathway to citizenship to 5.4 million eligible Hongkongers.

The announcement was made by Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a daily press briefing. The move came hours after British authorities announced details of the application process for the new BN(O) visas. The rule will become effective on Sunday 5.00pm.

 “Britain has ignored the fact that Hong Kong has already been returned to China for 24 years,” Zhao said. He accused London of ignoring Beijing’s “stern stance” against the new BN(O) policy, adding it would turn Hongkongers into “second-class citizens”.

Zhao said the BN(O) scheme was no longer one that had been agreed upon by both sides.

“[The new visa] is a serious violation of China’s sovereignty and a violent intervention of Hong Kong’s affairs and China’s internal affairs. It is a serious violation of the international laws and the basic principles of international relations,” he said.

The new British National (Overseas) visa will allow successful family applicants to stagger their arrivals so one parent can remain in Hong Kong to continue earning an income while the other goes over with their dependants. Such details of the much-anticipated scheme emerged as the British Home Office announced on Friday morning that applications would open online at 5pm on Sunday.

Britain decided to introduce the new visa July 2020 response to Beijing’s imposition of a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong. Some 5.4 million people in its former colony are eligible for British citizenship after five years of living there using the special visa.

Israel wish list for a new Iran Nuclear Deal

Ensuring US President Joe Biden administration works to fully and effectively prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is the first priority for Israel. If the Biden administration enters into talks with Iran, Israel wishes to ensure the weak points of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers are left out of the new deal.

Those include removing the sunset clauses, which gradually removed sanctions and limitations on uranium enrichment, such that Iran would have been able to develop a nuclear weapon in 2030 under the terms of the JCPOA.

Another Israeli priority is “anywhere, anytime inspections” of Iran nuclear sites, as opposed to Tehran being forewarned as the deal currently requires.

Those are far more important to Israel than something members of the Biden administration and some Israeli media reports have suggested: to add clauses to the JCPOA to stop Iran’s ballistic missile program and malign activities in the region. Israel believes Iran must not have a right to enrich uranium under whatever future framework is reached.

Israel is preparing a plan to counter Biden administration’s intention to negotiate a return to the Iran deal. As reported in The Jerusalem Post earlier, the security cabinet has not met to discuss the matter, but the senior government source said a smaller forum of top ministers will likely determine overall strategy.

In recent weeks, Biden administration officials have said talk of rejoining the JCPOA is premature, and that they plan to speak with allies in the region, Israel among them, before negotiating with Iran. Israel is reassured by those remarks, and that Israel is not looking for a fight with Biden. Rather, Israeli officials prefer that there be conversations behind closed doors between top officials.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to seek an in-person meeting with Biden in the coming months. Such a meeting between the Israeli prime minister and the new US president is customary during the first few months of a new administration in Washington in recent decades, but has even greater urgency due to the administration’s Iran policies. However, Biden may not want to meet with Netanyahu before the March 23 election in order not to appear like he is taking sides.

Tehran-Muscat stress expansion of economic and banking ties

During a meeting between the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and Oman’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad, in Muscat, the two sides emphasized the necessity of expanding bilateral economic and banking relations.

Addressing the meeting, the Omani minister pointed to the importance of Iran's role and position in the region, and considered the expansion of trade and economic relations between the two countries important.

It should be noted that before this and in the meeting of the CBI governor with the commerce and industry minister of Oman in Tehran last year, strategies for continuous development and facilitation of banking and trade relations between Iran and Oman were discussed.

Hemmati arrived in Muscat on Tuesday for a two-day visit aimed at strengthening trade and banking relations between the two countries, given the new international condition.

Despite the US reimposition of sanctions against Iran, Oman is getting closer to the Islamic Republic both politically and economically. There is also the same approach adopted by Iran, as Iranian companies now prefer to conduct trade with Oman rather than the United Arab Emirates (UAE), given that the UAE is highly complying with the sanctions.

Iran is somehow replacing some of its previous strategic trade partners such as UAE with Oman, considering the Sultanate as an economic-trade hub.

Over the past two years, there have been many meetings and negotiations between trade and economic officials from the state-run and private sectors of the two sides with the aim of strengthening and expanding bilateral trade ties.

During the 18th meeting of the Iran-Oman Joint Economic Committee in Tehran, Omani minister of commerce and industry had said that his country was trying to boost its trade and economic ties with Iran, stressing that this goal could be achieved through more cooperation between the two sides’ private sectors.

Ali bin Masoud al Sunaidy also said, “We will make the most efforts to provide incentives for joint investment and also promote bilateral trade cooperation between the two countries.”

Stressing that a very proper condition is available for invigorating the bilateral trade, the Omani official said the two sides can also take the advantage of bartering to expand their trade ties.

Addressing the same meeting, Iran’s Former Industry, Mining and Trade Minister Reza Rahmani said while there are potential and capabilities for boosting the trade turnover between Iran and Oman to $5 billion, the figure is currently $1 billion.

The International North South Transit Corridor (INSTC) can help the two countries elevate their bilateral trade to this level, the minister noted.

Meanwhile, Iran-Oman Joint Chamber of Commerce and Iran Mine House (IMH) signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation for the expansion of the Iranian private sector’s presence in Oman in early August, 2020.

 

Angela Merkel backs Xi Jinping on need to avoid new cold war

German Chancellor, Angela Merkel said, she agrees with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the need to avoid a new cold war amid calls for a transatlantic alliance between the United States and Europe to counter China, but she will continue to press Beijing on human rights and transparency.

“The Chinese president spoke yesterday, and he and I agree on that,” she told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday evening. “We see a need for multilateralism.”

Diplomatic observers said Merkel was expressing her vision of how the European Union should handle relations with China amid suggestions the US and EU should form an alliance to counter Beijing, which they both regard as a rival.

The German leader was referring to Xi’s speech on Monday, when he called for setting aside ideological differences, avoiding a new cold war and promoting multiculturalism. The remarks were made as the Joe Biden administration in the US was busy trying to repair ties with allies troubled by the Trump presidency.

Biden has this week spoken to several European leaders, including Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, as his top foreign policy officials seek a more coordinated approach with US allies on China strategy.

Readouts of the phone calls from the American side all mention China as one of the foreign policy priorities, along with Russia and the Middle East. But the issue of China was not mentioned in either of the statements from Europe.

“I’d very much wish to avoid the building of blocs,” Merkel said on Tuesday. “I don’t think it would do justice to many societies if we just say this is China and there is the United States and we are grouping among either one or the other. This is not my understanding of how things ought to be.”

Merkel, Macron and Xi were three of the speakers at this year’s World Economic Forum, which was held online. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also addressed the meeting.

Macron called for building “an economy more resilient to shocks and capable of integrating elements of resistance into production chains, an economy that takes into account this principle of humanity, in health matters as in social inequalities”.

John Kerry, Biden’s new climate envoy, and Anthony Fauci, Director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, were the only two speakers from the US government.

Merkel also pledged to keep pressing China on human rights and transparency.

 “The president of China has committed to the charters of the United Nations and the dignity of the individual plays a part in the charters,” she said. “We have to discuss this issue no matter what social system we come from.”

Transparency was also key to multilateralism, to ensure trade took place in a rule-based system and in case parties “play out advantages against certain countries”, she said.

Merkel also cited China’s information release onCOVID-19 as an example of lack of transparency, and defended the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which was agreed last month after seven years of negotiations.

The bill had made EU-China ties more reciprocal and put China’s labour standards more in line with those of the International Labor Organization, despite mounting concerns in Europe about Beijing’s reported forced labour in Xinjiang, she said.

Cui Hongjian, Director of the Department of European studies at the China Institute of International Studies, said Merkel’s remarks spoke of her vision of Europe as a coordinator between the US and China.

“It would serve Europe’s interests best if it maintains its strategic autonomy and plays the coordinator role between the US and China,” he said. “After the past four years, Europe has better realized the overlapping and contradictory interests with the US.”

Merkel’s direct reference to Xi’s speech was surprising, he said.

“I think it’s a shout to both the US and China, that multilateralism is the precondition for cooperation with either side,” he said.

India constructing power project in occupied Kashmir despite objections by Pakistan

It is reported that work has started on a power project in Indian occupied Kashmir despite Pakistan's objections. Pakistan has raised its concerns with the World Bank, stating that India’s project was not in consistency with the Indus Water Treaty (IWT).

India has undertaken to construct a power project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan has maintained that the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers are reserved for the country, while the Ravi, Beas and the Sutlej rivers are reserved for India under the IWT, signed in 1960 between the two countries.

Islamabad has repeatedly expressed its serious concerns over designs of the Pakal Dul, Ratle and Lower Kalnai projects, insisting that India would be using the reservoirs to create deliberate and artificial water shortage or cause flooding in Pakistan.

 “These projects have been designed in violation of the IWT,” said a government official.

Official sources have confirmed that Pakistan has approached the World Bank with a fresh protest.

However, Islamabad’s efforts do not seem to distract India as the Narendra Modi-led government has decided to go ahead with the construction of the 850 megawatt Ratle hydroelectric power project, approval of which came during a recent meeting chaired by the Prime Minister.

In 2019, India had accepted Pakistan’s request for inspection of the hydropower project on the Chenab basin.

After the visit of the Pakistani delegation, Islamabad had raised objections over Pakal Dul’s design being in violation of the Sindh Taas Agreement.

“Pakistan had demanded that the freeboard height should be reduced from seven-feet to two-feet and the installation of the seal way gates should be done with an additional 40 metres in order to bring 1,620 metres and align it with sea level,” said a government official.

While Pakistan is hopeful that its fresh protests with the World Bank would yield results and help in stopping India from what it calls, blocking the country’s water through construction of its reservoirs, Modi inaugurated the projects and is all set to start the construction work also.

 Pakistani government officials maintain that this is New Delhi’s rivalry with Islamabad and its ambitions to create hurdles for the country by blocking its water and using it for flooding whenever it deems fit.

Jerusalem mansion of Grand Mufti Amin al-Husseini to become synagogue

It is learnt that the landmark hilltop mansion built 88 years ago in affluent Sheikh Jarrah between the Old City and Mount Scopus by Amin al-Husseini, Grand Mufti of Jerusalem in the 1920s and 1930s is slated to become a synagogue in a future 56-apartment Jewish neighborhood in east Jerusalem.

At present, the mansion called Qasr al-Mufti (the Mufti’s Palace) stands deserted at the center of a largely completed 28-apartment complex, which lacks occupancy permit. The reason the new neighborhood is not being finished – and indeed has not been marketed in the 10 years since demolition and construction began – is that the developers have applied to rezone the site to double the number of units to 56, according to Daniel Luria, a spokesman for Ateret Cohanim, which backs the housing project.

Luria was unclear when the rezoning application, originally meant to build 70 apartments, would be approved. The historic house at the core of the site will be preserved and repurposed for communal needs including a synagogue and perhaps a day care center, he said. “There is a beautiful poetic justice when you see the house of Amin al-Husseini crumbling down,” Luria noted.

Though al-Husseini built the mansion, he never lived in it. Following the outbreak in 1936 of the Arab Revolt against the British Mandate government, the mufti became a fugitive hiding in the Old City’s Haram ash-Sharif. When the British attempted to arrest him in 1937, he fled Palestine and the British made do with confiscating his property. The al-Husseini clan owned numerous properties in Jerusalem, among them the Palace Hotel (today the Waldorf Astoria), the Orient House, and the mansion subsequently turned into the Shepherd Hotel in Sheikh Jarrah on a plot of land known as Karam al-Mufti, named for al-Husseini.

Among the occupants at the mansion was his secretary George Antonius (1891-1942), who wrote his seminal The Arab Awakening while living there in 1938. Antonius’s widow Katy continued living in the building, which functioned as a salon where wealthy Palestinian Arabs and British officials socialized. (The city’s British sports club had a “No Natives” policy.)

At one of Katy’s elegant soirees in 1946 she met Sir Evelyn Barker. The much-decorated general was General Officer Commanding (GOC) of the British forces in Palestine and Trans-Jordan from 1946 to 1947. The two carried on a torrid affair and exchanged Judeophobic billets doux. In April 1947, he wrote her about the Jews: “Yes I loathe the lot – whether they be Zionists or not. Why should we be afraid of saying we hate them? It’s time this damned race knew what we think of them – loathsome people”.

On 13th April 1948, British troops posted at the mansion and the nearby Police Academy refused to intervene for eight hours as a convoy of doctors and nurses headed to Hadassah Hospital came under withering fire from Arab fighters; 68 were slaughtered in the massacre.

Following the war of Independence, the al-Husseini mansion became the Shepherd Hotel in the now-divided and impoverished city, though it was eclipsed by the Hotel Jerusalem Intercontinental, today called the Seven Arches, which opened on the Mount of Olives in 1964. After the 1967 Six Day War when Israel conquered and annexed east Jerusalem, the hotel was taken over by the Custodian of Absentee Property.

In 1985, it was sold to C and M Properties, owned by Florida bingo hall billionaire Irving Moskowitz (1928-2016), the benefactor of right-wing Israeli settler group intent on housing Jews in the eastern side of the now united city.

Following the zoning of Plan 2591, a request was made on 6th November 2008 to permit the company to build two new residential blocks, including 28 apartments built on top of an underground parking lot. In January 2011, the derelict four-story Shepherd Hotel annex added on to the mufti’s original mansion was demolished to make way for the future housing.

Rather than begin the lengthy process of rezoning the site – which adjoins the British Consulate – for a higher density, it was decided to build what was legally permitted and later apply to amend the zoning, Luria explained.

Who was Sheldon Adelson?

Sheldon Adelson committed as much as half a billion dollars from his vast fortune to buy control over a major element of US foreign policy and subordinated American interests to those of Israel. He was the principal funder of the Republican Party under Donald Trump and receiving in return the withdrawal of United States from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the move of the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights and a virtual concession that the Jewish state could do whatever it wants vis-à-vis the Palestinians, including expelling them from Palestine.

Casino magnate and Israeli patriot multi-billionaire Adelson, one of the world’s richest men, died in Las Vegas on 11th January 2021, at the age 87. He has been buried at the Mount of Olives Cemetery in Israel. When his body arrived in Israel it was met by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as Jonathan Pollard, the most damaging spy in the history of United States.

Tributes to the fallen “hero” poured in from the political class in both the United States and Israel and it has even been reported that President Donald Trump was intending to hoist the American flag at half mast over federal buildings to honor the “great humanitarian philanthropist.” Unfortunately, the flag was already at half mast honoring the death of Capitol Police Force officer Brian Sicknick, who was murdered in the Capitol building..

Trump had plenty to say about his good buddy Adelson, who has been the principal funder of the Republican Party over the past five years. As he can no longer use Twitter, the president’s condolences were posted on the White House site: “Melania and I mourn the passing of Sheldon Adelson, and send our heartfelt condolences to his wife Miriam, his children and grandchildren. Sheldon lived the true American dream. His ingenuity, genius, and creativity earned him immense wealth, but his character and philanthropic generosity his great name. Sheldon was also a staunch supporter of our great ally the State of Israel. He tirelessly advocated for the relocation of the United States embassy to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the pursuit of peace between Israel and its neighbors. Sheldon was true to his family, his country, and all those that knew him. The world has lost a great man. He will be missed.”

Missing from the Trump eulogy is any mention of what Adelson did for the United States, which is his country of birth and where he made his fortune engaging in activity that many would consider to be a vice. In fact, Adelson was all about the Jewish state, positioning himself as the principal funder of the Republican Party under Donald Trump and receiving in return as a quid pro quo the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), the move of the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, the recognition of Israeli annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights, and a virtual concession that the Jewish state could do whatever it wants vis-à-vis the Palestinians, to include expelling them from Palestine. Adelson once commented that Israel does not have to pretend to be a democracy but it must be Jewish, presumably to help the process of Arab genocide move along.

Adelson’s mechanism, initiated under George W. Bush, is familiar to how the Israel Lobby operates more generally. It consisted of the exploitation of the incessant need of campaign money by the GOP, which Adelson provided with strings attached. He worked with the Republicans to completely derail the admittedly faux peace process begun under Bill Clinton, which depended on a two-state solution, and instead give the Jewish state a free hand to implement its own unilateral Greater Israel Project extending from “the Jordan River to the Mediterranean.” As part of that expansion, Israel has been building illegal settlements while also bombing and killing Lebanese, Syrians, and Iranians and assassinating scientists and technicians throughout the region.

All of the interventions against Israel’s neighbors took place even though the Jewish state was not technically at war with anyone. The US meanwhile funded Israeli aggression and watched the spectacle without any complaint, providing political cover as necessary, while also maintaining a major military presence in the Middle East to “protect Israel,” as Trump recently admitted.

In short, Sheldon Adelson committed as much as half a billion dollars from his vast fortune to buy control over a major element of US foreign policy and subordinated American interests to those of Israel. In addition to direct donations to both major political parties, he also paid for Congressional “fact finding” trips to Israel and funded a number of pro-Israel lobbies, so-called charities and other related Jewish projects. It is indisputable that he wielded an incredible degree of power to shape Washington’s actions in the Middle East. In her own tribute to her dead husband, Miriam Adelson, an Israeli, described how he “crafted the course of nations.”

Adelson was actively engaged on Israel’s behalf until the week before his death. He provided his casino’s private 737 luxury executive jet to transport Jonathan Pollard “home” to Israel. Pollard has served 30 years in prison after being convicted of espionage and was on parole, which restricted his travel. As yet another gift to Israel, Donald Trump lifted that restriction, allowing him to fly to Israel where he received a hero’s welcome. It is generally agreed that Pollard was the most damaging spy in American history, having stolen the keys to accessing US communications and information gathering systems. A month after Pollard’s arrest in 1985, CIA director William Casey stated, “The Israelis used Pollard to obtain our war plans against the USSR – all of it, the coordinates, the firing locations, the sequences, and Israel sold that information to Moscow for more exit visas for Soviet Jews.”

Sheldon Adelson used his wealth and political connections to shield himself from any criticism due to his openly expressed preference for Israel over the land of his birth. He publicly stated that he wished he had worn the Israeli Army uniform instead of that of the US Army, where he served briefly as a draftee. He also expressed his desire that his son would serve as an Israeli army sniper, presumably allowing him to blow the heads off of Palestinians.

In 2013 Adelson advocated ending nuclear negotiations with Iran and instead detonating a nuclear weapon in “the middle of the [Iranian] desert,” followed by a threat to annihilate the capital city Tehran, home to 8.6 million, to force Iran to surrender its essentially non-existent nuclear program.

Other acknowledgements of the impact of Adelson came from officials in the Trump Administration. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo commented how his “efforts to strengthen the alliance between Israel and the United States…the world, Israel and the United States are safer because of his work.”

Is the world a better place due to the passing of Sheldon Adelson? His Israeli wife Miriam owns more than 40% of Las Vegas Sands Corp Casinos Inc., estimated to be worth in excess of US$17 billion. She has proposed that a new chapter be included in the Jewish bible, the Book of Trump, and has pledged herself to continue her husband’s work. Trump had previously given her the highest award that a president can bestow, the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Qatar offers to mediate between Iran and United States

Qatar is ready to mediate between Iran and the United States as Joe Biden, assumes office of President, after the turbulent years of the Trump administrations, said Lolwah al-Khater, spokeswoman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry. She also pointed out that Qatar is committed to engaging in a “constructive dialogue” between Tehran and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

“Qatar has expressed its willingness to play such a role, yet we have to be invited by both parties, who are still hesitant to take this step, in terms of entering and engaging in direct negotiations,” said al-Khater.

She stated that Iran and Arab states of Persian Gulf’s are geographical realities in the region and they need to start a direct dialogue.

“Iran is a geographical reality in our region and the [Persian] Gulf states are a geographical reality, no one is going away, and that is why it is very important to engage in a meaningful, constructive and direct dialogue," the spokeswoman asserted.

She said a dialogue between Iran and its Arab neighbors is even more important than a dialogue between Iran and the United States.

“If it was important for the US to have a dialogue with Iran, then it is even more important for us as [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to have a meaningful and constructive dialogue with Iran, one that will preserve the collective security of our region, the rights of our peoples and ensure a prosperous future for coming generations,” she continued.

The Qatari official also pointed to Qatar’s trade ties with Iran and Turkey during the GCC crisis, saying that these ties helped Qatar in achieving a GDP growth more than that of its neighbors.

“Looking back, the economic gains are significant,” she said of the outcome of the crisis, pointing out that Qatar's GDP grew more than that of its neighbors during the blockade, when Doha strengthened its trade relations with Turkey, Iran and other countries in the area beyond the GCC.

The comments came a few weeks after Qatar mended ties with its Arab neighbors in a reconciliation deal brokered by the US. The deal put an end to a three-year-and-half dispute between Qatar and an Arab quartet of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt. In June 2017, the Saudi-led quartet severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and imposed a total blockade on the tiny Persian Gulf nation.

The four countries closed their airspace, land, and sea routes to Qatari planes, cars, and vessels, a move that prompted Qatar to use Iranian airspace. Kuwait, a country stuck in the middle of the dispute between its neighbors, had studiously worked to reconcile the opposing sides and succeeded in doing so in December.

On 5th January 2021, leaders of the GCC - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman- attended the al-Ula summit in Saudi Arabia in which they signed a reconciliation deal, putting an end to the years long GCC crisis.

“There have been no concessions from any side (...) the GCC crisis was a lose-lose situation for everyone, so ending this crisis, I think, will be a gain for everyone”, al-Khater said of the deal.

According to al-Khater, Doha has emerged stronger from the crisis, at least from an economic point of view, as in the past three and a half years it has “diversified its supply chains and reinforced its position as one of the largest energy exporters globally.”

“The blockade was a situation we did not choose, for sure, but we were able to live with it and sustain the situation. Ending the blockade is about the collective interest of our entire region, not only in Qatar’s interest,” the spokeswoman insisted.

Al-Khater’s remarks came after Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called for dialogue between Iran and its Arab neighbors to resolve outstanding differences, expressing hope that the two sides would hold a summit to deescalate tensions.

“We are hopeful that this [summit] would happen and we still believe that this should happen. And I think this is also a desire that being shared among the other GCC countries. I just mentioned to you that there is a difference between the countries on the way how to approach such a dialogue. Also from the Iranian side, they have expressed their willingness several times to engage with the GCC countries,” he said in a recent interview with Bloomberg TV.

Bin Abdulrahman underlined that the time should come when the Persian Gulf’s Arab states will sit at the table with Iran and reach a common understanding. “We have to live with each other. We cannot change geography. Iran cannot move the GCC away from its neighborhood and the GCC cannot move Iran from the neighborhood,” he continued.

The chief Qatari diplomat also expressed readiness to facilitate dialogue between Iran and the GCC states or back anyone facilitating such a dialogue.

He also hoped that the much-anticipated talks between Iran and the US on the 2015 nuclear deal –officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)- would help ease tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors.

Bin Abdulrahman expressed hope that what will happen between Iran and the US on the JCPOA would contribute to resolving the differences between Iran and the GCC. “Of course, things are interconnected at the end of the day,” he noted, adding that Qatar will support negotiations between the stakeholders.

“We will be welcoming this idea. We maintain a good relationship with the US and we maintain a good relationship with Iran,” bin Abdulrahman stated.

Iran welcomed the Qatari call for dialogue between Iran and the Persian Gulf’s Arab states, underlining that the solution to the region’s challenges lies in cooperation to form a strong region free from foreign interference.

“Iran welcomes my brother FM @MBA_AlThani's call for inclusive dialogue in our region. As we have consistently emphasized, the solution to our challenges lies in collaboration to jointly form a 'strong region': peaceful, stable, prosperous & free from global or regional hegemony,” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a tweet following the Qatari foreign minister’s call for dialogue.

 

United States still viewed as ‘grey rhino’ risk for Chinese economy

The outlook for China-US trade ties under a Joe Biden presidency has been met with mixed views by Chinese economists; with some saying the United States remains the nation’s biggest “grey rhino” – a very obvious yet ignored threat – in terms of economic risk this year.

Biden, who was sworn in as the 46^th US president on Wednesday, inherits a bilateral relationship at historic lows and many economists are hoping he can reverse the course set by former president Donald Trump, who launched a damaging trade war in 2018.

“It is quite safe to say that in the past two years, no one has won the trade war. China may have suffered heavily, but the price the US has paid was also very high,” said Yu Yongding, a prominent Chinese economist and former central bank adviser.

China’s trade surplus with the US rose to US$316.91 billion in 2020 from US$295.77 billion in 2019, despite China’s purchasing commitments in the phase one trade deal and heavy tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese goods.

The 2020 figure represents a 14.9 per cent jump from a US$275.8 billion surplus in 2017, when Trump took office claiming that China’s trade practices were unfair and cost Americans jobs.

One year after signing the phase one deal, China remains far behind in its commitment to buy more American goods. In the first 11 months of last year, China’s purchases of products included in the agreement reached only 58 per cent of its targets using US Census Bureau statistics, or 56 per cent using Chinese customs data, according to a report by Peterson Institute for International Economics released this month.

Yu said given China was so far behind the target partly due to the coronavirus pandemic, the two countries should renegotiate the agreement in accordance with the force majeure clause, which frees both sides from obligation due to extraordinary events outside their control.

 “To show good faith, China should in principle adhere to its commitments made in the phase one agreements,” he said. “Although personally I don’t like quantity targets – a deal is a deal.”

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Biden must change US policies towards China, including rolling back the Section 301 tariffs, most of which are still in place and borne by US importers and consumers, not Chinese exporters.

Although the Trump administration deserves credit for sounding the alarm on Xi Jinping-led China, “it did not address that challenge with effective policies that changed the facts on the ground in America’s favour,” said Kennedy in a note this week.

Biden is expected to adopt a less antagonistic tone towards China, but he has indicated his approach on trade will not differ hugely from Trump, at least in the short term. This has caused some Chinese economists to take a cautious stance towards the new president.

Guan Qingyou, an economist and president of Rushi Advanced Institute of Finance, said China’s fast recovery from the pandemic has accelerated it along its path to surpass the US as the world’s largest economy, and conflict between the two powers will become more pronounced.

 “The current appointments of senior officials in the Biden administration indicate that the US is building up pressure on China, and the grey rhino China faces this year may still come from the US,” he said in a note published this week.

His view was echoed by Chen Wenling, chief economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchange, a government-backed think tank, who said on Tuesday “negative energy” from some American politicians had affected efforts to fight the pandemic and rescue the global economy, and might continue during the Biden administration.

“Even though some absurd politicians have withdrawn from the stage of history, the ghosts of the extremely ignorant populism, anti-intellectualism and McCarthyism will keep diffusing over these countries for a long time, continuing to impact the world economy and China-US relations,” she said.

There are also concerns about Biden’s impact on the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The Chinese currency surged against the US dollar last year starting in May, as the world’s second largest economy remained a rare bright spot in an otherwise ravaged global economy.

We’ve previously glorified Biden that he might cut tariffs when he comes into power, but now it seems that he won’t roll back the tariffs immediately

However, the yuan has declined so far this month on expectations for more US economic stimulus under Biden, who unveiled a $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan last week.

China promised not to manipulate the yuan’s exchange rate for competitive advantage as part of the phase one deal, but the US Department of the Treasury kept China on its watch list for foreign-exchange manipulation in its final report before the Trump left office.

Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities, expected more volatility ahead for the yuan, especially in the early stage of Biden’s term.

“Last year the capital market had a very high expectation of de-escalation in US-China relations that partially led to the surge of the yuan,” Zhong said in a webinar this week. “We’ve previously glorified Biden that he might cut tariffs when he comes into power, but now it seems that he won’t roll back the tariffs immediately.

“That’s the key point, because the gap in the expectations will inevitably cause fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate.”

Courtesy: South China Morning Post