Pakistan: Staff level agreement reached with the IMF

Pakistan has finally reached staff level agreement with International Monetary Fund (IMF) on policies to complete the 7th and 8th reviews of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF). 

The agreement is subject to IMF board approval, likely in August, which will pave way for the release of US$1.17 billion bringing total disbursement to US$4.2 billion under EFF.

Additionally, in order to support program implementation and meet the higher financing needs in FY23, the IMF Board will consider an extension of the EFF till June 2023 instead of September 2022. The Board will also consider increasing the size of the EFF program to US$7 billion, up from initially proposed US$6 billion.

This support will provide some help as delays in IMF program and policy actions had led to increased economic uncertainty and a continuous decline in foreign exchange reserves.

To recall, 7th and 8th reviews of Pakistan EFF program was initially scheduled in March 2022 and June 2022 but Pakistan was not able to reach Staff level agreement with IMF due to delay in proposed policy actions like removal of petroleum subsidies, imposition of Petroleum Levy (PDL), energy tariff rationalization and increased tax measures.

It is believed that the implementation of key policy actions like increase in energy tariffs (gas and power rates) and other structural benchmarks like gradual increase in taxes on oil and implementation of anti-corruption law will remain key and will lead to IMF’s executive board approval and release of funds. 

IMF in its press release highlighted 5 key policy priorities to stabilize economy and bring policy actions in line with IMF-supported program which includes 1) Steadfast implementation of FY23 budget, 2) catch-up in power sector reforms, 3) proactive monetary policy to guide inflation to more moderate levels, 4) reducing poverty and strengthen social safety, and 5) strengthen governance.

The recently passed budget aims to reduce government’s large borrowing needs by targeting an underlying primary surplus of 0.4% of GDP by restricting expenditures and broad revenue mobilization measures.

Relating to power sector reforms, IMF noted that due to weak implementation of the previously agreed plan, the power sector circular debt flow is expected to grow significantly to about Rs850 billion in FY22.

Furthermore, adjustment in monetary policy and linkages of EFF and LTFF rates with policy rate remain the key given rising inflationary pressures. Government is also establishing a robust electronic asset declaration system and plan to undertake a comprehensive review of the anticorruption institutions (including the National Accountability Bureau).

IMF stressed that “Steadfast implementation of the outlined policies, underpinning the SLA for the combined seventh and eighth reviews, will help create the conditions for sustainable and more inclusive growth”.

It is believed that Pakistan economic situation will remain challenging due to uncertain global economic and financial market conditions along with local political situation.

Pakistan need to arrange funding up to US$35 billion during FY23 which is big task considering rising interest rates and risk averse attitude around the world.

There are expectations that few friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia will continue financial support to Pakistan after IMF deal.

Furthermore, Pakistan is also expected to receive financing from other Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral donor agencies that could provide some support to reserves of the country.    

Moreover, after ousting of the previous Khan government through a no confidence motion, the PML-N led coalition government will be going into elections next year whereby it will be difficult to take all much needed reforms.

Though, the recently announced measured by the new government in Pakistan will help stabilize the economy and reduce fiscal and current account deficit, the overall investor confidence will remain below average.

Pakistan Eurobond yields are now at 20%-32%, local lending rate is at 20 year high of 15.87% while Pakistan stocks are down 6% (US$ down 21%) in 2022 to date.

This new IMF deal may help in some recovery of Pakistan dollar bond prices but considering the overall global interest rate environment and Pakistan rising debt a strong recovery may not come.

Similarly, Pakistan stocks may react slightly positively to this news but given Pakistan’s high lending and policy rates & other challenges like high inflation could continue to impact stock market sentiments.

Recently in its monetary policy statement SBP also highlighted key risks like high global commodity prices, rising inflation and increasing external account concerns that remain critical for Pakistan economic outlook.   

Analysts expect FY23 GDP growth of maximum 4% against government target of 5% and estimate CPI inflation around of 19% in FY23.

Global energy prices also remain the key for Pakistan. In FY22, oil and LNG imports are estimated at US$22 billion which was 27% of total import bill. A sustainable fall in oil, coal and LNG prices can provide some support to Pakistan external account.

 

Bangladesh: IMF team arriving on Thursday

A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is scheduled to reach Dhaka on Thursday on a nine-day trip to discuss the government’s request for a US$4.5 billion support program.

Rahul Anand, Division Chief in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, will lead the team during talks with the senior officials of the Finance Ministry, the central bank, the National Board of Revenue and the Economic Relations Division.

If everything proceeds smoothly, the loan deal could be finalized by October this year, said an official of the Finance Ministry yesterday.

The request for IMF support comes to shore up the precarious foreign currency reserves, which slipped to US$39.8 billion — the lowest since October 14, 2020. This is enough to cover about five months’ import bills.

Typically, the World Bank and the IMF prescribe an import cover of three months, but in times of economic uncertainty, they advise keeping sufficient reserves to meet 8-9 months’ imports.

Going forward, even though imports are slowly contracting, the elevated inflation levels around the world mean the odds of a slowdown in both remittance inflows and export orders, two sources of foreign currency for Bangladesh.

The IMF officials will look into the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and escalated global commodity prices on the Bangladesh economy, the status of recovery from the global coronavirus pandemic and the government’s large subsidy program.

They will see whether the subsidy spending is justified and compare it with the other countries. If it is deemed excessive, the IMF mission may suggest ways to trim it.

Subsidy spending in the just-concluded fiscal year is Tk 66,825 crore, 24.1% more than the original allocation thanks to the spiral in fuel and fertilizer prices in the global market.

In this fiscal year’s budget, Tk 82,745 crore has been earmarked for subsidy.

But considering the price trend of oil, gas, and fertilizer in the international market, the estimated spending can be 15-20% higher than the initial estimates, said Finance Minister AHM Mustafa Kamal in his budget speech in June.

The conditions could include measures to increase revenue, lower subsidy expenditure, market-based exchange rate and lending rate, and reforms in the banking sector and tax administration, the Finance Ministry official said.

Bangladesh has unveiled a relatively smaller budget for the current fiscal year, put on hold low-priority projects, suspended foreign tours of government officials, adjusted the prices of gas and diesel to some extent, and loosened the exchange rate policy.

The government has also signalled that it may raise the price of fuel oil and has proposed to the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission to increase the electricity tariff to cut the subsidy burden.

Surjit Bhalla, Executive Director of the IMF for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, who represented Bangladesh on the board of the Washington-based lender, is also set to visit Bangladesh separately.

 

Israel to push Biden on trade corridor connecting Israel and Gulf

“Corridors for Economic Integration”

A new highway and railway system throughout Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia could facilitate tens of billions of dollars in trade, according to a special paper prepared by the Finance Ministry ahead of US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel.

The paper was drafted by Shira Greenberg, the ministry’s chief economist, under the direction of Finance Minister Avigdor Liberman. Government officials said that Liberman met in recent days with Prime Minister Yair Lapid to ensure that its main points would be brought up in talks with Biden during his visit to Israel, which begins on Wednesday and will end on Friday.

The paper – obtained by The Jerusalem Post and prepared in English so it could be shared with the Biden administration – pushes for a new plan called “Corridors for Economic Integration” that would create a regional transportation network including railways and highways linking Israel with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

“By creating a direct connection between the Gulf and the Mediterranean, the network will allow for dramatically shorter shipment times between East and West,” the paper claims. “The project thus has the potential to facilitate trade on both a regional and global level, in addition to enhancing regional economic cooperation.”

Some sections of the network are already in stages of development, according to the paper. In Israel, a railway runs from the port of Haifa to Beit She’an, which is only 10 km. from the border with Jordan.

In Saudi Arabia, the North-South Railway links the east and center of the country with the north, all the way up to the border with Jordan.

In the Gulf, a railway under development there is being planned to connect those of all Gulf countries, in particular railways in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

“By creating a direct connection between the Gulf and the Mediterranean, the network will allow for dramatically shorter shipment times between East and West.”

The distance, the paper said, of the “missing link” – between the Saudi-Jordanian border and the crossing between Israel and Jordan where the railway almost reaches – is just 200 kilometers.

The network, the paper claims, could facilitate trade between the Gulf, Europe, North Africa and the east coast of the Americas. “The existence of numerous relevant and significant trade flows is expected to provide the project with robust demand – as traders in all relevant countries will seek to take advantage of reduced shipment times and direct access to regional markets,” it says.

In the paper, the Finance Ministry calls on the Biden administration to take the reins of the initiative and to bring all of the relevant stakeholders together to facilitate its success.

“While preliminary analyses have shown the project’s potential, a full cost-benefit analysis carried out on behalf of all involved parties by an experienced international partner could also help the sides decide on the next steps,” it says. “We believe that the current positive atmosphere of regional cooperation will allow us the opportunity to move forward in these regards.”

 

 

 

Biden visit to Middle East: What is more important Israel or Saudi Arabia?

Forty-nine years since making his first trip to Israel, US President Joe Biden is scheduled to arrive in the country on Wednesday on the first leg of his first presidential visit to the Middle East.

For years he has regaled Jewish and Israeli audiences with an account of a meeting he had during that trip with then-prime minister Golda Meir, who told him that Israel’s secret weapon in dealing with Arab hostility was, “We have no place else to go.”

He later termed the meeting one of the most “consequential” of his life.

At that meeting, however, he complained to Meir about the Labor Party’s platform which he said was leading to “creeping annexation” of the territories. He also relayed to Meir that in Egypt he heard how the Egyptian officials believed in “Israel military superiority.” He concluded, as a result, that Israel should initiate the first step toward peace by unilateral withdrawals from nonstrategic areas.

A half-century breeds enormous changes. The US has changed dramatically, as has its position in the Mideast. Israel, too, has changed dramatically, as has its position in the world. But two things from that meeting remain constant, Biden is still opposed to Israel’s policies in the territories, and Israel’s sense that it has no place else to go infuses much of its strategic thinking – including Iran.

On Biden’s upcoming visit, both in Israel and in Saudi Arabia, Iran issue is going to take up much more room than the occupied territories.

Another issue, which came to the fore only a few months after Biden’s initial visit, will also feature prominently, oil. His visit in the late summer of 1973 came just before the Arab countries discovered oil as a strategic weapon, and began to use it.

Biden is the seventh sitting US president to visit Israel. It took 26 years before the first presidential visit to Israel, with Richard Nixon taking that leap in 1974. Since then, there have been 10 other presidential visits, including a one-day visit by Barack Obama in 2016 to attend Shimon Peres’s funeral. Nixon, Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump all visited once, George W. Bush and Obama visited twice, and Bill Clinton came here four times.

This will not be the first time a US president comes during an election campaign. Clinton came here in March 1996 – after organizing a “Summit of Peacemakers’’ in Sharm e-Sheikh – and made clear his preference for Peres, rather than the Likud leader running against him at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Clinton’s support didn’t help, as Netanyahu eked out a razor-thin victory over Peres in elections held two months later. This should be a cautionary tale for Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is hoping that Biden’s visit will give him a boost.

Historically, nods from US Presidents – though the optics are often powerful – have not necessarily translated into huge bonuses at the polls. Ask Netanyahu how much he was helped by the hug then-president Donald Trump gave him before the two elections in 2019, and the one in 2020. Trump was all-in for Netanyahu, yet Netanyahu didn’t get the votes he needed to form a coalition.

What Biden’s visit will do for Lapid is make him look prime ministerial. Photos of Lapid meeting and greeting Biden, and even audio of Biden praising the new acting prime minister, may help remove lingering doubt among those who believe that the onetime television journalist is not yet ready for the political prime time.

It is not, however, going to move voters from the pro-Netanyahu camp to the anti-Netanyahu camp headed by Lapid.

What is the goal? Beyond Lapid, what does Israel want from the Biden visit?

First of all, it just wants the visit itself. Presidential visits are still important for Israel because they reinforce the impression – an important one for Jerusalem in projecting power throughout the region and beyond – that its alliance with the US is steadfast and solid, and that it continues to enjoy a close and special relationship with Washington.

This not only deters those who might want to harm Israel, realizing that the US stands firmly behind it, but also encourages those who might want to get closer to Israel, because of Israel’s closeness to America. Presidential visits demonstrate that closeness.

Such a demonstration is especially important now, amid a constant drumbeat of stories about how Israel’s support in the US is on the decline, especially among Biden’s own Democratic Party, and especially among young voters in that party.

Secondly, Israel wants coordination on the Iranian dossier to come from this visit. It wants to coordinate with Biden regarding policy toward the Islamic Republic if there is no new nuclear agreement, and it wants to know what type of security architecture the US plans for the Mideast in that eventuality. Israel doesn’t only want to listen; it wants to give its input. Furthermore, Israel also wants to hear from Biden what the US plans to do if an agreement is signed, and Iran violates it.

Biden is scheduled to arrive Wednesday afternoon and will be leaving for Saudi Arabia on Friday. He will also be spending a few hours in the Palestinian Authority with PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

There, too, there will be meetings with interlocutors who want something. The Palestinians will want to hear Biden talk about a two-state solution, and provide concrete steps toward working toward a “diplomatic horizon.” They will want commitments regarding opening a consulate in east Jerusalem, reopening the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s office in Washington, and pledges of more financial support for the PA.

They are likely to be disappointed, as – unlike other presidents on trips to Israel and the Mideast – the Palestinian issue, resolving this issue, is nowhere near the top of the president’s agenda for this trip.

When discussions about a possible presidential visit became public a few months ago, Naftali Bennett was prime minister – the government was shaky, but still held. Even though the government has since fallen, a new prime minister is in office, and elections are four months away, the Americans proved very determined to go ahead with the visit.

Why visit Jerusalem at a time when the prime minister is not going to be able to make any significant promises, since in four months he may not be able to act on them. Why risk being seen as meddling in internal Israeli politics?

Israel is only a sidelight on this visit. Had Biden been coming only to Israel, he probably would have canceled and come next year, after the US midterm elections and when a new government would be in place in Jerusalem. But Israel is just the appetizer on this presidential voyage. Saudi Arabia is the main course.

Ironically, Biden is actually using the appetizer to explain to critics why he is moving on to the main course. He is using Israel to deflect criticism at home about visiting Saudi Arabia, despite that country’s human rights violations, despite its involvement in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and despite Biden’s having said in the 2020 presidential campaign that it is a country that should be treated like a “pariah.”

One of the main purposes of this visit to the region, Biden said at a press conference in Spain last month, is to “deepen Israel’s integration in the region.”

“I think we’re going to be able to do that, which is good – good for peace and good for Israeli security,” he said. “That’s why Israeli leaders have come out so strongly for my going to Saudi Arabia.”

Biden is going to Saudi Arabia, where he will join a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Iraq, Egypt and Jordan, and is expected to see Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom he has pointedly snubbed since becoming president. In Saudi Arabia, both Biden and the Saudis have their wants.

Biden wants, in fact he desperately needs, the Saudis to increase oil production to make up for shortfalls in supply caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This has led to skyrocketing prices in the US, with the average cost per gallon now standing at $4.79 a gallon (still well below the $8.96 Israelis pay per gallon at the pump).

The president is making his Mideast trip as the US economy is in the doldrums, sending his popularity numbers to new lows. Biden’s approval rating (39% on June 30) was almost 3 points lower than Trump’s at the same stage of his presidency. Low popularity isn’t because he has not put enough energy into the Mideast peace process, but, rather, primarily because of the economy – inflation and gas prices.

He hopes that in Saudi Arabia he can find a cure, at least, for gas prices, but this may be too high of an ask.

The Saudis, smarting from what they feel is the shabby way they were treated by Biden and this administration, are in no great rush to come to the president’s aid.

Lowering gas prices will help the Democrats – poised to get clobbered in five months in the US midterm election. But the Saudis aren’t interested in the Democrats doing well at the polls. If anything, they would prefer a Republican Congress and – in another two years – a Republican president.

Saudis also have their wants. They want the US to acknowledge that Riyadh has been a loyal strategic partner for 80 years; they want the US to acknowledge that the country has suffered from Houthi attacks; they want the Houthis reinstated on the American list of terrorist organizations; they want respect from Washington, and not to be viewed merely as America’s gas station.

In addition, they want assurances from Biden that they can count on the US in the future. The Saudis are looking for assurances that the US is not withdrawing from the region and is still willing to use its vast military power, and they want to hear how the US plans to protect them from Iran.

Biden will be flying into a region this week where a lot of different parties have a lot of different asks and expectations. Inevitably, some people are going to be disappointed, Biden himself may be among them. 

Iranian non-oil trade with neighbors up 18% during March-June 2022 quarter

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighboring countries increased 18% during the first three months of the current Iranian calendar year (March-June), as compared to the same period last year, the spokesman of Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) announced.

Ruhollah Latifi put Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighbors at 20.973 million tons worth US$12.363 billion in the three-month period.

He said trade with the neighbors accounted for 49% of the value and 59% of the weight of Iran’s non-oil trade during the period under review.

The country exported 16.05 million tons of non-oil goods worth US$6.736 billion to the neighboring countries in the three-month period of this year, indicating 20% rise in value, while 10% drop in weight, as compared to the same period last year, the official stated.

He named Iraq, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Afghanistan, and Oman as the five top export destinations.

Latifi further announced that Iran imported 4.433 million tons of goods worth US$5.627 billion from its neighbors during this period, with 15% growth in value and one percent rise in weight YoY.

He named UAE, Turkey, Russia, Pakistan, and Oman as the five top sources of imports.

As previously announced by the IRICA head, the value of Iran’s non-oil trade with its neighbors during the previous Iranian calendar year 1400 was reported at US$51.875 billion, an increase of 43% YoY.

Alireza Moghadasi put the weight of non-oil trade with the neighboring countries at 100.131 million tons in the said year, stating that trade with the neighbors also increased by 23% in terms of weight.

The official put the annual non-oil exports to the mentioned countries at 75.445 million tons valued at US$26.29 billion, with a 29% rise in value and a 12% growth in weight.

Major export destinations of the Iranian non-oil goods were Iraq with US$8.9 billion, followed by Turkey (US$6.1 billion), United Arab Emirates (US$4.9 billion), Afghanistan US$1.8 billion) and Pakistan with (US$1.3 billion) in imports from the Islamic Republic, others countries included Oman, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, according to the official.

Moghadasi further stated that Iran imported 24.686 million tons of non-oil commodities worth over US$25.846 billion in the previous year, with a 60% growth in value and a 68%YoY increase in weight.

The United Arab Emirates was the top exporter to Iran during the period exporting US$16.5 billion worth of goods to the country, followed by Turkey, Russia, Iraq, and Oman, he stated.

Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Armenia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain were other top neighboring countries that supplied goods to Iran in 1400, respectively.

Increasing non-oil exports to the neighboring countries is one of the major plans that the Iranian government has been pursuing in recent years.

Iran shares land or water borders with 15 countries namely UAE, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Russia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia.

Lift sanctions against Russia, urges Bangladesh Prime Minister

Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh has urged the Western countries to lift the sanctions on Russia, saying that millions of people across the world were suffering as the sanctions impacted global supply chains and increased prices food and other commodities.

Because of the US-led sanctions, food prices are skyrocketing and people are suffering everywhere.

“Punishing the people of the world, while trying to punish one country tantamount to human rights violation. This is why I think it is imperative that the US step away from this. I think everybody will want this,” she said while inaugurating a new building of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Dhaka.

The comments came at a time when people in Bangladesh are bearing the brunt of rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices and the government is being forced to take austerity measures that include limiting fuel use and electricity generation.

In late February, the Russia-Ukraine war started, bringing more miseries to the world still reeling from the pandemic.

The Western nations led by the United States have frozen about US$400 billion of Russian central bank’s assets and at least US$240 billion belonging to oligarchs. However, Moscow has roughly US$300 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves, and the ruble has now hit a seven-year high against the US dollar.

The UN has warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine could push up to 49 million people into famine or famine-like conditions because of its devastating impact on global food supply and prices.

According Europmonitor.com, global inflation may reach 7.9% in 2022. The average annual global inflation between 2001 and 2019 was 3.8%.

Hasina said the US-imposed sanctions have reduced the availability of goods, including those imported by Bangladesh, while the shipping costs have gone up. Not only in Bangladesh, but people in the US, Europe, UK and the rest of the world are also affected by the sanctions.

People in developing and developed countries are affected by the restrictions, and the US should understand this, she said, questioning if sanctions were effective at all in hurting a particular country.

“The developed countries should think about it.”

She said the Ukraine war and sanctions came just when Bangladesh was recovering from the shock of the pandemic. “This has become a great challenge for Bangladesh to overcome.”

The war should not affect shipping of goods from one country to another and international trade must be uninterrupted, she said.

Bangladesh is trying to increase food production. “But to boost food production, we need fertilizer, diesel and other related materials. We are not getting those.”

 

United States slaps new oil sanctions on Iran

 

The United States Department of Treasury this week imposed more oil and petrochemical industry sanctions on Iran amid stalled nuclear negotiations.

"While the United States is committed to achieving an agreement with Iran that seeks a mutual return to compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, we will continue to use all our authorities to enforce sanctions on the sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals," said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson.

In a news release, the Treasury said it would sanction an international network of companies and individuals involved in the marketing of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products in East Asia.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a tweet that the US is imposing the sanctions "absent a commitment from Iran to return to the JCPOA."

The latest round of talks between Iran and the US facilitated by the European Union ended inconclusively last week, with participants saying they would resume soon.

Meanwhile, Iran has stepped up its demands on the US side, according to the US Special Envoy for Iran—demands that have nothing to do with the nuclear deal.

"They have, including in Doha, added demands that I think anyone looking at this would be viewed as having nothing to do with the nuclear deal, things that they've wanted in the past," Robert Malley told NPR this week.

"The discussion that really needs to take place right now is not so much between us and Iran, although we're prepared to have that it's between Iran and itself, that they need to come to a conclusion about whether they are now prepared to come back into compliance with the deal, if we're prepared to do the same, and we've said we are," the Special Envoy for Iran also said.

Iran's Foreign Minister, who led the latest talks with the EU, said, as quoted by Reuters, "We are prepared to resume talks in the coming days. What is important for Iran is to fully receive the economic benefits of the 2015 accord."

 

Pakistan: Business leaders term hike in interest rate ‘disastrous for fragile economy’

According to a Dawn newspaper report, the business community of Pakistan has strongly condemned the decision of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to increase the interest rate to 15%.

Trade and industry representatives said the move would prove highly disastrous for industries and the SME sector. They demanded that the government intervene and get the central bank’s decision withdrawn with immediate effect.

Irfan Iqbal Shaikh, President, Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) said he did not understand SBP’s logic in raising the interest rate to 15% at a time when power, gas and petroleum prices, along with looming uncertainty, have already reached new highs.

“The interest rate in Pakistan is three to four times higher than in the region, and in such circumstances, no stakeholder would dare to set up any new industries or go for any vertical expansion of their units,” he said.

“It seems that the government is more focused on dealing with political issues rather than showing any seriousness in tackling the issues of the business community. No planning is being done while the economic situation is getting out of control,” said Shaikh.

FPCCI President urged the government to listen to stakeholders and implement policies that will help the country recover from its economic crisis.

Abdul Rasheed, President, Site Association of Industry (SAI) said while the industry was already perturbed over the interest rate, the SBP has continued to crawl up the policy rate, bringing more trouble in the functioning of the industries.

He said many industries, including the textile sector, have invested billions of dollars in importing machinery in the last three years at a 4 to 4.5% markup rate after obtaining loans from the banks. At the 15% policy rate, industrialists and exporters would stop importing machinery, leading to a suspension in industrial activities besides creating unemployment and a law and order situation.

Muhammad Idrees, President, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) said the SBP has increased the policy rate under some pressure, which would plunge many industries into a default situation. “The government can make borrowing, but the industries will be unable to take loans,” he added.

“What is the government doing? Will it put the economy on track by taking such decisions? “deplored Ijaz Khokhar, Chief Coordinator, Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters questioned the rationale.

“In Sialkot alone, a huge cottage industry (SMEs) comprising around 7,000 small units has been in operation for a long time. So they all would be no more gradually due to the increase in the interest rate at 15% which is already too much higher than our neighbouring countries,” he explained.

In a statement, Haris Ateeq Vice President, Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI) also condemned the decision, expressing concern that further increases in discount rates would raise the cost of doing business.

 

 

Pakistan: Textile industry first casualty of absurd policies of incumbent government

Abdul Rahim Nasir, Chairman, All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) claims that over 300 textile units have been closed due to the cut in gas supply. 

He urged the Government of Pakistan (GoP) to immediately restore gas supply to the textile industry. Explaining  gravity of the situation he said Pakistan has already lost almost US$1 billion of textiles and clothing exports.

Accompanied by APTMA, North Zone Chief, Hamid Zaman and Senior Vice-Chairman Kamran Arshad at a press conference, he said the 26% upsurge in the export of textiles during fiscal year 2021-22 was made possible only due to the supply of energy at a regionally competitive tariff.

He stated that the textile industry performed admirably, increasing textile exports from US$12.5 billion in 2020 to nearly US$20 billion in 2022, a 60% increase.

He claimed that the exponential growth in the textile sector has promoted investment of over US$5 billion and the establishment of 100 new textile units, which, after becoming operational, would result in fetching additional exports of US$6.0 billion per annum.

Nasir pointed out that gas supply to the industry was suspended for a week, almost halting production in the whole value-added industry and causing colossal losses to the economy.

He added that the large-scale closure of mills has resulted in massive layoffs and unemployment, spreading economic chaos.

He believes it is inexplicable that the exporting sector, which has pledged to increase textile exports to US$25 billion in 2022-23, is being denied energy and gas. He said that an uninterrupted supply of gas is a must for the industry to maintain momentum in exports.

Zaman said that the textile sector has repeatedly delivered on its commitment to enhance exports and proven that they are a viable and long-term solution provider for the economic stability of the country.

He warned that more than 50% of output would be lost this month, with a very high risk of permanent order loss and buyer diversion from Pakistan to its competitors.

He stated that the textile industry is currently producing goods for the upcoming Christmas, and any delay in the delivery schedule risks losing export markets for an indefinite period with little chance of recovery.

“If this momentum is lost due to energy supply and cost constraints, Pakistan will be forced to seek an additional US$6 billion in loans from abroad, which under the circumstances may not even be possible,” he said, stressing the immediate restoration of gas supply to the export-oriented industry.

Highlighting the importance of the textile sector in the mainstay of the country’s economy, Arshad said that textiles have a 61% share in the country’s exports and 40% of manufacturing sector employment. The fragile economy of the country cannot sustain the consequences of the closure of mills in the wake of non-supply of gas.

State Bank of Pakistan raises policy rate to 15%

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) has increased policy rate by 125bps to 13-year high of 15%.

As per SBP, inflation expectations have risen significantly due to local and international challenges. Inflation in June 2022 rose to a 14-year high of 21.3% as government removed energy subsidies.

Furthermore, external account concerns also increased as current account deficit was reported at US$1.4 billion in May 2022 which was higher than expected. As a result, foreign exchange reserves and rupee has remained under pressure further increasing inflation expectation.

SBP stressed the importance of monetary tightening and its impact on containing aggregate demand. Had the monetary tightening measures not been taken by the central bank, inflationary pressures and external account issues could have further worsened.

SBP also stressed the need to provide targeted subsidies where inflationary pressures and impact of higher utility prices must be absorbed by well-off segment of the society.  

The interest rates on LTFF and EFF loans are now being linked to the policy rate to strengthen monetary policy transmission, while continuing to incentivize exports by presently offering a discount of 500bps relative to the policy rate as per SBP. It is believe that the hike was in line with IMF’s key demand to reduce concessions given to industry and improve monetary policy transmission.    

SBP expects inflation to remain in the range of 18-20% in FY23. It is anticipated to fall in the range of the 5-7% target range by the end of FY24, driven by tight policies, normalization of global commodity prices, and beneficial base effects. GDP growth rate is likely to remain in range of 3-4% in FY23. SBP anticipates Current Account Deficit at 3% of GDP in FY23. 

Despite the impact of tight fiscal and monetary policy on demand-pull inflation, inflation is likely to remain elevated around current levels for much of FY23 due to the large supply shock associated with the reversal of fuel and electricity subsidies.

SBP is likely to continue to monitor developments and factors affecting medium term prospects for inflation, fiscal stability and growth. SBP is anticipated to take appropriate action to safeguard them.

SBP expects Pakistan to reach Staff Level agreement with IMF very soon as government has already taken the difficult decisions like reversal of petroleum subsidies and passage of budget in line with key objectives agreed with IMF.

Completion of the on-going IMF review will also catalyze additional funding which should help Pakistan meeting its external financing requirements. 

Both monetary and fiscal policies are now moving in same direction which should help address inflationary pressures going forward.

SBP has refrained from giving forward guidance recently due to a lot of uncertainty as SBP’s policy decisions will remain data driven.

Though, inflationary pressures are cost push in nature but monetary tightening helps contain core inflation which is also rising and needs to be contained as per SBP.

Global recoverable oil reserves fall

Oslo-based energy analyst Rystad's latest analysis of the world’s energy backdrop indicates a 9% fall in recoverable oil resources, adding more pressure to the planet’s energy security.

Rystad Energy estimates that the world has a total of 1,572 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves, but only about 1,200 billion barrels are likely to be economically viable before 2100 and US$50 per barrel.

The fall is partly down to 30 million barrels of oil produced last year and also a substantial reduction of 120 billion barrels in undiscovered resources. Leasing bans on federal land in the US will mean that a further 20 billion barrels stay in the ground, Rystad said.

Commenting on the findings, the firm’s head of analysis, Per Magnus Nysveen said, “While the drop in oil availability is positive news for the environment, it may threaten to further destabilize an already precarious energy landscape.

Energy security is a matter of redundancy; we need more of everything to meet the growing demand for transport, and any action to curb supply will quickly backfire on pump prices worldwide, including large producers such as the US Politicians and investors can find success by targeting energy consumption, encouraging  electrification of the transport sector, and drastically improving fuel efficiency.”

Rystad has also updated its estimated of total undiscovered oil, with a sharp reduction from one trillion barrels in 2018, to 350 billion barrels. This, the firm explained, was due to a rapid collapse in investor appetite for exploration exposure, leading to fewer government leases.

This downward revision is good news for carbon compliance, Rystad said, but could have negative consequences for global energy security, particularly if electric vehicle adoption falls short of expectations.

Pakistan: Oil and gas production on the decline

According to a report by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, during FY22, oil production in the country declined by 3%YoY to 26.8 million barrels or 73,400 barrels per day (bpd). Oil production in the country during 4QFY22 was down by 6%YoY as against 17%YoY increase in 4QFY21. 

This was largely due to: 1) decline in production from Nashpa, Adhi, and Makori East oil fields, and 2) no addition of any sizable oil field. On a QoQ basis, the decline in oil production was due to annual turnaround at Meyal, Jhandial and Pariwali.

During FY22, Pakistan gas production has come down by 2% YoY to 3.38k mmcfd which is largely in line with last 5-year average production decline.

Gas production in 4QFY22 contracted by 2% YoY due to: 1) their association with lower oil production, and 2) lower offtakes due to annual turnaround and maintenance. 

During 4QFY22, gas production was almost flat or up by paltry 1%QoQ despite lower offtakes from MARI due to annual turnaround of Foundation Power Company Daharki Limited (FPCDL) and Dakhni and Maramzai fields during the quarter.

As new block auctions were held last year, exploration activity in the new awarded blocks is likely to increase. Production flows in FY23 could also be higher due to the recent discoveries in FY22.

In FY22, Geological and Geophysical (G&G) activities remained on a higher side where 3D seismic acquisition rose to 1,913 Sq. Kms. However, 2D seismic activities decline to 2,507 Sq. Kms.

During 4QFY22, Geological and Geophysical activities showed an increase, with 3D seismic acquisition increasing to 1,132 Sq. Kms, while 2D declined to 577 Sq. Kms. Moving forward, there are 7 seismic surveys of 2D and 3D which are going to be conducted during 1QFY23.

In FY22, meterage drilling increased by 43%YoY as the numbers of well spudded were reported at 58 as compared to 50 in the same period last year. Drilling activities (meterage) rose by 20%YoY, but fell by 19%QoQ to 44,500 meters during 4QFY22.

Overall, 8 wells were abandoned in FY22 as against 6 in the same period last year. During 4QFY22, the exploration and production companies encountered 3 abandoned wells which were Exploratory (Mian Miro Deep -1, Surghar X-1 and Bewato-1.

For 1QFY23 3 exploratory and 4 development wells have been planned for.

Oil likely to fall to US$65 a barrel by end 2022

As the Bloomberg recession tracker rose to 38%, the price of oil has plummeted below US$100 a barrel, the first time since early May this year.

Citigroup is predicting that crude, which has soared as a direct result of Russia-Ukraine conflict, could fall to US$65 a barrel by year end.

While lower crude prices (theoretically) will lead to less pain at the pump, the surge in cost for natural gas (also made worse by the war) may do lasting damage to the global economy.

The fossil fuel has skyrocketed by 700% in Europe since the start of 2021. All of this is not helping when it comes to keeping Wall Street from panicking. But Mohamed A. El-Erian writes in Bloomberg Opinion that, while the first half of 2022 was excruciating for investors in stocks, corporate bonds, crypto and lots of other assets, there are a few silver linings to make you feel a little better.

Oil posted its worst trading day (July 05, 2022) in almost three months as recession fears gripped markets, outweighing a fundamentally tight supply market. 

West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled below U$$100 on Tuesday after falling more than 8%, the most since March 09, 2022.

Risk-off sentiment spread throughout markets on escalating concerns that a global economic slowdown will ultimately hobble demand.

Oil prices have been prone to violent swings as traders fled to the exits after Russia-Ukraine conflict started, drying up liquidity. The latest plunge came as equities slid and the US$ surged. Citigroup said that crude could fall to US$65 this year in the event of a recession.

Oil prices have been under pressure in the past month as central banks aggressively raise interest rates. Still, physical barrels are fetching enormous premiums.

Saudi Arabia hiked its official selling prices to Asia on Tuesday. Its flagship Arab Light crude price will be US$9.30 above its regional benchmark in August, an increase of US$2.80. 

“Crude oil prices have slumped as weakening demand concerns are starting to outweigh fears about tight supply,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index.

“A growing number of analysts are expecting that many of the world’s leading economies will suffer negative growth in the next few months, and this will drag the US into a recession.”

While futures have been pressured by the threat of a global economic slowdown, key market time-spreads remain robust, indicating that there’s solid demand for near-term supplies. A strike in Norway and supply disruption in Libya has exacerbated that strength of late.