Monday, 8 September 2025

Who will be the next prime minister of Japan?

With Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba poised to step down, attention now focuses on who will seek to lead the Liberal Democratic Party and possibly Japan in his place.

Two possible candidates are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Japanese leader Junichiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi, a former economic security minister who could become Japan's first female prime minister. Both were strong contenders for the LDP presidency in 2024 but lost to Ishiba.

Whoever succeeds Ishiba as prime minister will need to find ways to work with opposition parties as the leader of a minority government.

Ishiba told a news conference Sunday that he would not seek reelection as LDP president. His standing in the party was undermined by the LDP's loss of a majority coalition in the July upper house election.

Ishiba listed dealing with US tariffs, establishing a disaster management agency and promoting wage increases as some of the areas in which he wants his successor to achieve results.

Candidates for party president need the endorsement of at least 20 LDP members of parliament. Beyond Koizumi and Takaichi, potential contenders include Takayuki Kobayashi, another former economic security minister; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi; and Toshimitsu Motegi, a former LDP secretary-general. All of them vied against Ishiba in the 2024 LDP presidential race.

Takaichi topped a Nikkei opinion poll last month on the question of who was fit to be the next prime minister, with 23% support, followed by Koizumi at 22%.

In her first bid for LDP leadership in 2021, Takaichi came in third with the backing former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She has a base of support among lawmakers who were aligned with the late Japanese leader.

In the 2024 LDP presidential race, Takaichi topped the first round of voting, only to be overtaken by Ishiba in the runoff. She was endorsed by LDP heavyweight Taro Aso, a former prime minister and leader of the party's only remaining faction.

After the election, she declined an offer to become chair of the LDP's powerful General Council and kept her distance from Ishiba's government.

Koizumi served as the party's election chief in the October 2024 lower house campaign but resigned after the LDP failed to keep its majority. The 44-year-old became agriculture minister after the previous one quit over a gaffe, and he has been working to lower rice prices by shaking up distribution. He finished third in the 2024 LDP presidential race.

Hayashi, who placed fourth, has served as chief cabinet secretary, a key post as the Ishiba government's top spokesperson.

Kobayashi holds some support among backbenchers. He finished fifth in the 2024 race.

"I want to consult carefully my colleagues about what I can do," Kobayashi said Sunday.

Motegi, the oldest of these contenders at 69, has a foothold among some members of the LDP's former Motegi faction. He placed sixth last time.

In the presidential election, each LDP lawmaker in parliament has one vote and, as a general rule, an equal number of local LDP members and supporters also cast ballots for a leader.

In special situations, voting can be held at a joint meeting of both houses of parliament in lieu of a party convention.

In the first round of voting in 2024, Takaichi received 72 lawmaker votes and 109 party member votes, while Koizumi received 75 and 61, respectively.

But whoever is elected LDP president in this race has no guarantee of being selected as prime minister by parliament. If all the opposition parties unite behind one rival candidate, the LDP contender cannot win.

The cooperation of opposition parties is also essential to passing a budget and legislation. To secure a majority in Japan's powerful lower house, the next prime minister will need support from the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, the conservative Japan Innovation Party or center-right Democratic Party for the People in addition to the ruling coalition.

The next prime minister will first face the challenge of agreeing with opposition parties on a fiscal 2025 supplementary budget and a fiscal 2026 budget and tax reform-related bills.

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

 

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