Two
possible candidates are Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former
Japanese leader Junichiro Koizumi, and Sanae Takaichi, a former economic
security minister who could become Japan's first female prime minister. Both
were strong contenders for the LDP presidency in 2024 but lost to Ishiba.
Whoever succeeds Ishiba as prime minister will need to find
ways to work with opposition parties as the leader of a minority government.
Ishiba told a news conference Sunday that he would not
seek reelection as LDP president. His standing in the party was undermined
by the LDP's loss of a majority coalition in the July upper house
election.
Ishiba listed dealing with US tariffs, establishing a
disaster management agency and promoting wage increases as some of the
areas in which he wants his successor to achieve results.
Candidates for party president need the endorsement of at
least 20 LDP members of parliament. Beyond Koizumi and Takaichi, potential
contenders include Takayuki Kobayashi, another former economic security
minister; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi; and Toshimitsu Motegi, a
former LDP secretary-general. All of them vied against Ishiba in the 2024 LDP
presidential race.
Takaichi topped a Nikkei opinion poll last month on the
question of who was fit to be the next prime minister, with 23% support,
followed by Koizumi at 22%.
In her first bid for LDP leadership in 2021, Takaichi came
in third with the backing former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. She has a base of
support among lawmakers who were aligned with the late Japanese leader.
In the 2024 LDP presidential race, Takaichi topped the first
round of voting, only to be overtaken by Ishiba in the runoff. She was endorsed
by LDP heavyweight Taro Aso, a former prime minister and leader of the party's
only remaining faction.
After the election, she declined an offer to become chair of
the LDP's powerful General Council and kept her distance from Ishiba's
government.
Koizumi served as the party's election chief in the October
2024 lower house campaign but resigned after the LDP failed to keep
its majority. The 44-year-old became agriculture minister after the
previous one quit over a gaffe, and he has been working to lower rice prices by
shaking up distribution. He finished third in the 2024 LDP presidential race.
Hayashi, who placed fourth, has served as chief cabinet
secretary, a key post as the Ishiba government's top spokesperson.
Kobayashi holds some support among backbenchers. He
finished fifth in the 2024 race.
"I want to consult carefully my colleagues about what I
can do," Kobayashi said Sunday.
Motegi, the oldest of these contenders at 69, has a foothold
among some members of the LDP's former Motegi faction. He placed sixth last
time.
In the presidential election, each LDP lawmaker in
parliament has one vote and, as a general rule, an equal number of
local LDP members and supporters also cast ballots for a leader.
In special situations, voting can be held at a joint meeting
of both houses of parliament in lieu of a party convention.
In the first round of voting in 2024, Takaichi received 72
lawmaker votes and 109 party member votes, while Koizumi received 75 and 61,
respectively.
But whoever is elected LDP president in this race
has no guarantee of being selected as prime minister by parliament. If all
the opposition parties unite behind one rival candidate, the LDP contender cannot
win.
The cooperation of opposition parties is also essential to
passing a budget and legislation. To secure a majority in Japan's powerful
lower house, the next prime minister will need support from the center-left
Constitutional Democratic Party, the conservative Japan Innovation Party or
center-right Democratic Party for the People in addition to the ruling
coalition.
The next prime minister will first face the challenge of
agreeing with opposition parties on a fiscal 2025 supplementary budget and
a fiscal 2026 budget and tax reform-related bills.
Courtesy: Nikkei Asia
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