Tattered Western Order

The great power competition between the United States and China is in full swing. Both the countries are embroiled in major issues of international affairs, and none of the international issues remains immune to their influence. 

Trade war, ideational war, and forging alliances are new forms of strategies crafted by Washington and Beijing. Arguably, the world no longer solely is dominated by the West materially and ideationally. The material and ideational decline by and large is contributing to enfeebling the Western hegemony.

The democratic crises in the West and the rise of China in terms of economy, becoming the world’s largest export market, and rapid rise in technology caused a great deal of consternation for the West. The deeply embedded crisis in the Western-led liberal order, ostensibly, leaves a vacuum for China.

The old Western-led liberal order looks more troubled today than at any time since the 1930s. 

Over a decade, Western free societies endured polarization, corruption, populism, inequality, and illiberal threats to the rule of law. The former US president Donald Trump's rhetoric of “America First” was not only symptomatic of attacks on liberal internationalism but also challenged US exceptionalism.

An exclusionary approach of Trump created a deep rift in international politics. The US exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and threat of the World Health Organization (WHO) astonished many experts. 

Joseph Nye accurately assessed Trump’s self-destructive approach and argues “I am not worried by the rise of China I am more worried by the rise of Trump” His populism, reactionary nationalism, an assault on the rule of law and openness of US society badly tarnished the American image.

Anne-Marie Slaughter states “Four years of erratic, personality-driven leadership in the United States under President Donald Trump have left the liberal order in tatters”. 

To improve the tarnished image of the US, the incumbent president Joe Biden promised to “rebuild the nation, revitalizing our democracy, and winning the future for America”.

In competition with China, the US must rebuild the social purpose of liberal democracy at home and improve the damaged image of liberal democracy abroad. The work appears to be a daunting task for the Biden administration to improve its triple crises, crisis of democracy, crisis of leadership, and crisis of multilateralism. 

The US is extremely likely to weaponize ideology in its strategic rivalry vis-à-vis China. The battle of democracy vs. autocracy will gain further momentum. Biden advises his countrymen “I predict to you your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded, autocracy or democracy, because that is what is at stake”.

The relative rise of China in terms of economy and changing distribution of global wealth in parity between the West and East would go in favour of the East in the coming decades. The diffusion of power and transfer of global wealth will make the hegemonic decline of the West irreversible. 

The Chinese vision, a community of shared future for mankind first emerged in 2011 as a rhetorical slogan in Chinese diplomacy gained content and substance. The phrase in October 2017 after the 19th National Congress was incorporated into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and subsequently into the Chinese Constitution in March 2018.  

A community of shared future for mankind is aimed at building an inclusive, open, clean and beautiful world contributing to lasting peace, common prosperity and universal security, providing instructive answers to addressing the fragmentation and turbulence in international politics. China has actively advocated the phrase in public diplomacy. The Chinese vision was accepted in different UN resolutions as far as the peace and security of the world are concerned.

To be fair, the Chinese vision would confront innumerable challenges in a politically divided world community. Nadège Rolland terms the Chinese vision “looks more like a list of what Beijing advocates for its own needs, security, and position than an innovative contribution for the future of the world”.

Meanwhile, China initiated the Global Civilizational Initiative GCI. The initiative is believed to have been promoting diversity, plurality and dignity among nations challenging the idea's imposition and discouraging the exploitation of communities and resources that will prove instrumental for diversity, mutual understanding, and the world's economic growth.

China under GCI is trying to undermine Western democracy which is coupled with populism, polarization, racism and xenophobia. The contemporary world is going through tremendous changes, power is shifting from the West to the East. 

The Western dominance in terms of material and ideational seems to be declining. The Saudi-Iran détente brokered by China was a momentous occasion in Middle Eastern politics that caused a huge setback to the US interest. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina in BRICS would cement China’s ideational, and material strength vis-à-vis the US. 

The prevailing battle of democracy vs. autocracy will further accelerate. The United States promotes Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Quad comprised the democratic countries like the US, India, Japan and Australia in a bid to contain China.

The Ukraine crisis has brought China and Russia closer together. The US domestically and internationally faces dual challenges in the projection of democracy. Domestic crises such as populism, racism, and xenophobia pose severe threats to democracy. In the international arena, China and Russia are causing significant obstacles in the advancement of US democracy.     

 

Fallout from Canada-India clash

Canada-India relations are reeling from the announcement that Canadian security agencies had uncovered evidence linking the Indian government to the assassination of an Indian-born Canadian citizen in British Columbia earlier this year. Canada Institute Associate Xavier Delgado outlines what's at stake for both countries and their allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canadian security agencies have obtained credible evidence linking the Indian government to the unsolved murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen and notable advocate for Sikh separatism. 

Nijjar was shot by two masked assailants outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia earlier this year in an attack that Canada alleges has since been connected to agents of India.

The Indian foreign ministry decried the allegations as absurd and, in the aftermath of the announcement, exchanged tit-for-tat expulsions of senior diplomats from Ottawa and New Delhi.

The dispute has shined a sudden spotlight on the Canada-India relationship, which, prior to the Nijjar incident, had been trending in a positive direction. Geopolitical developments, economic ties, and demographic trends over the past ten years had set the stage for closer cooperation between the two former British colonies. India’s prominence in Canada’s 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy and high-level negotiations between the two states for an early progress trade agreement (EPTA) gave supporters of the relationship plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Now, the allegations that the Indian government orchestrated the assassination of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil have cast a cloud of doubt over the path ahead for the bilateral relationship.

Trade will likely be the first major casualty of the fallout, with negotiations for the EPTA being put on hold. Both countries declared that they would pause trade talks with each other earlier this month and Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng has indefinitely postponed a trade mission to New Delhi that had been planned for October. The negotiations were a notable part of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, which listed the EPTA as a critical step towards a larger comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) that would bolster trade ties between the two countries.

The stalled trade talks have put a US$17 billion bilateral trade relationship under strain. Canadian merchandise trade with India grew from approximately US$3.87 billion in 2012 to US$10.18 billion in 2022, with major increases in the export of Canadian energy products and import of Indian consumer goods. In that same year, services trade between the two countries measured US$6.96 billion. 

A reduction in the flow of Indian immigrants, which constitute almost one in five of all recent immigrants to Canada, could be even more devastating than a deterioration of trade relations.

Canada recently reached the 40-million-population milestone off an influx in inbound migration following the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, Canada’s population growth, which is the fastest in the G7, is mainly driven by migration ‑ four in five new Canadians from 2016 to 2021 were immigrants. 

Indian immigration to Canada has tripled since 2013, overtaking and pulling away from the Philippines and China as the top source country for new Canadians in the 2021 census.

That census also counted 1.3 million ethnic Indians living in Canada, over 1 million of whom resided in British Columbia or Ontario. 77% of that group – 771,790 people – follow Sikhism, making Canada’s Sikh population the largest in the world outside of India. 

India also tops a notable subcategory of immigration ‑ international students, 34% of international students in Canada from 2015 to 2019 came from India, providing a critical source of revenue for Canadian academic institutions; by 2022, that share had grown to 40%. These numbers directly translate to the labor force, with Indian graduates from Canadian programs accounting for the largest share of post-graduate work permit holders in 2018 over China (20%) and the United States (1%).

Beyond the bounds of Canada-India relations, the dispute between the two countries may throw a wrench in the emerging Indo-Pacific framework of institutions and alliances.

India, with its economic might and security capabilities, has been hailed by the United States and democratic allies as a regional counterweight to China. Washington included India as a founding member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the freshly-anointed I2U2 bloc with Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

Both countries are also founding members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD or Quad), a strategic security dialogue that includes Japan and Australia.

Canada, for its part, was not invited to join the Quad or IPEF at the conception of either group, nor was it included alongside Five Eyes allies Australia and the United Kingdom in the AUKUS security pact. After inviting Canada to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership during the Obama administration, the United States opted to not join the agreement, leaving both countries without a shared major economic or security institution in the Indo-Pacific. 

A chilling of relations with India could hinder Canada’s ability to join the network of Indo-Pacific institutions, both because regional allies will be wary of angering the Modi government and because India itself could block Canadian membership in certain groups.

Ottawa is clearly aware of India’s influence and power in the region. The Canadian Indo-Pacific strategy, published in late 2022, has an entire section dedicated to India that reads, “India’s strategic importance and leadership – both across the region and globally – will only increase as India – the world’s biggest democracy – becomes the most populous country in the world and continues to grow its economy.”

Canada is not the only party that stands to lose from this dispute. The allegations can damage India’s public image as a democratic nation committed to a rules-based order or, more critically, its perception as a trustworthy ally in the competition against China. Canada’s Five Eyes partners could reevaluate intelligence sharing and law enforcement cooperation with India if Canadian officials uncover definitive proof of India’s involvement in Nijjar’s murder. 

Disputes between allies are common and, in the diverse roster of countries that constitute the emerging Indo-Pacific architecture, should be expected. Governments disagree frequently over trade policies, environmental practices, and other issues that don’t pose a threat to their diplomatic relationships.

The Canada-India dispute is unique in that the severity of the allegations, the economic and demographic ties between the two countries, and the geopolitical context in which the situation unfolded have raised the stakes for all parties, including the United States.

To prevent spillover damage to the nascent Indo-Pacific alliances, Washington will need to approach the situation carefully. Beijing benefits the most from in-fighting between major US allies, but regardless of how the coming weeks play out, both Canada and India will still have poor relations with China and good relations with the United States. One reason for this is the values that all three countries nominally share. US leaders should remember this and remind Ottawa and New Delhi that the path forward must be paved by justice and a commitment to due process to deviate from those values would be to bring relations between all three countries into uncharted and volatile territory.

 

G20 decisions, what next for Pakistan?

The G20 conference has come to an end in Delhi, where a lot happened which can become a permanent topic separately.

For example, the Indian media mentioned a statement by the Prime Minister of Italy regarding BRI, the Prime Minister of Canada spoke about Khalistan while standing in the Indian capital and when the rights of Sikh in Canada holding a referendum on Khalistan.

Muhammad Mehdi, Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Media Research has discussed the concept of the Global South that President Biden arrived in Delhi with this concept, and the leadership of the Global South will be handed over to India according to Washington’s vision. 

According to Mehdi, for Pakistan any situation that affects the region is extremely important because the country would be affected whether it likes it or not. The Global South's vision is to prepare India to compete with China's BRI project.

India does not have enough economic size to be able to do this on its own, so its economic needs will be fulfilled by the United States as much as it needs compared to China.

The next and very important question is, whether the US economy under the debt of US$7.6 trillion has enough power to meet these needs or not? In order to promote the concept of the Global South, an MoU was signed during the G20 summit in India.

This economic corridor project will connect ports and rail links to the Middle East, Israel and Europe. The project is being named as India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEEC).

It includes United States, India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the European Union. The goal of this project is to connect India's ports with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia by developing a large-scale rail network and then get access to Israel and Europe from there. And apart from the Suez Canal, another route should be developed while China's BRI project should also be made a response to it.

Discussions on this project started in 2021 at a Business Forum between the United States, India, UAE and Israel, and later Saudi Arabia also joined these discussions.

When the Abraham Accords was being signed between certain Arab countries and Israel under the patronage of the United States, Mehdi had said that it should not be seen only in the context of the Arab countries and Israel, but it will have far-reaching consequences on the region where Pakistan is located and that has started happening.

Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel, but it has recognized Israel's position in this agreement. Now, what does the US want to achieve by including the Arab countries in it? It is clear that through the BRI project, China's footprints are clearly visible on the Arab land.  

This is not only limited to economic matters, but by standing with Saudi Arabia and Iran, China has given a clear message that now its political position has also become strong in this region and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also joined BRICS, which also includes India, but its souls are China and Russia.

According to Mehdi, United States cannot afford such a situation. When the Ottoman Empire disintegrated as a result of the First World War, the British shadow remained over the Arab region from that time until the end of the Second World War, and then later the United States replaced the United Kingdom and enjoyed its position solely.

But China's recent successes have put many question marks on the presence of the US supremacy in this region and its future, and the supwer is taking steps to maintain its supremacy by presenting the concept of the Global South. And in order to achieve this goal, India is being encouraged.

Narendra Modi will face polls and in order to win he needs to put his nation behind a truck light similar to what he has achieved by holding this conference and promoting this economic corridor.

This is called a political slogan because there is a very strong belief that the current US economy, which will have a debt of US7.6 trillion by the end of year 2024, is not strong enough to support this project. 

Regarding the same thing that happened to the New Silk route project announced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during the Obama era, an economic route would be made from Afghanistan, but then it could never be implemented.

The real goal of the current plan seems to be to confuse the Arab world with the fact that the United States is coming down a new path and to make them think about how far they should go with China and how much should be carried forward.

If the US succeeds in getting the Arab countries into this mess, it will be a success. Because these Arab countries are concerned about their internal and international security, and they still depend on the largest suppliers of arms and military might.

Muhammad Mehdi is the Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Media Research

 

Modi passes G20 gavel to Lula

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called an end on Sunday to the G20 Summit in New Delhi by passing on a ceremonial gavel to Brazil, which will take the bloc’s presidency.

“I want to congratulate Brazil’s president and my friend Lula da Silva, and hand over the presidency’s gavel to him,” Modi said.

Modi congratulated Lula, while handing him over the presidency of G20 after the closing session of the G20 Summit 2023 at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi

Brazil officially will take over the mantle of the presidency of the elite grouping on December 01, 2023. Speaking on the occasion, Lula congratulated Modi and thanked India for its efforts to give voice to the topics of interest to emerging economies.

Lula also listed social inclusion, the fight against hunger, energy transition and sustainable development as G20 priorities.

He said the UN Security Council needs new developing countries as permanent, non-permanent members to regain political strength.

“We want greater representation for emerging countries at the World Bank and the IMF,” he said.

“Brazilian presidency of the G20 has three priorities — first, social inclusion and fight against hunger. Second, energy transition and sustainable development in its three aspects... Third, the reform of global governance institutions.

“All these priorities are part of the Brazilian presidency motto which says ‘building a fair world and a sustainable planet’. Two task forces will be created — global alliance against hunger and poverty and the global mobilization against climate change.”

Lula said on Saturday that Russian leader Vladimir Putin would not be arrested in Brazil if he attends the Group of 20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro next year.

Interviewed on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Delhi by news show Firstpost, Lula said Putin would be invited to next year’s event, adding that he himself planned to attend a BRICS bloc of developing nations meeting due in Russia before the Rio meeting.

“I believe that Putin can go easily to Brazil,” Lula said. “What I can say to you is that if I’m president of Brazil, and he comes to Brazil, there’s no way he will be arrested.”

On the occasion, Modi proposed to hold a virtual session of G20 at the end of November this year.

“In the last two days, you have put forward your views, given suggestions and a number of proposals have been put forward. It is our responsibility that the suggestions that have come forth are closely looked upon as to how they can be speeded up,” Modi said.

“It is my proposal that we hold another session of the G20 virtually in November-end. In that session, we can review the issues that have been agreed upon during this summit. Our teams will share the details of it with all of view. I hope all of you will join this (session),” he said.

“With this, I declare the G20 summit as closed,” Modi said. 

Saudi Crown Prince announces economic corridor linking India, Middle East and Europe

According to Saudi Gazette, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for an economic corridor project connecting India with the Middle East and Europe.

The project aims to enhance economic connectivity, develop and upgrade infrastructure, and boost trade between the involved parties.

Speaking at the occasion of the launch of the corridor on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders' Summit in Delhi on Saturday, the Crown Prince said, “I am pleased today that we are gathered in this friendly country to sign an MoU for an economic corridor project connecting India with the Middle East and Europe.”

“This project is the culmination of our joint efforts over the past few months.

“It is built on principles that serve the common interests of our countries by enhancing economic connectivity and positively impacting our partners in other countries and the global economy as a whole.”

He added, “This project will contribute to the development and upgrading of infrastructure, including railways, port connections, and increased flow of goods and services, thus enhancing trade between the parties involved.

“It will also extend pipelines for the export and import of electricity and hydrogen to enhance global energy supply security, in addition to high-efficiency, reliable cross-border data transmission cables.”

The Crown Prince highlighted that the MoU also supports clean energy development efforts and will create new, high-quality employment opportunities along the corridors for all parties.

"To achieve what we have agreed upon in this memorandum, it requires the continuation of our collective efforts and the immediate commencement of developing the necessary mechanisms for its implementation within the agreed-upon timeframe," he said.

He also expressed profound gratitude to all those who worked together to take these foundational steps towards establishing this significant economic corridor.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the launch of the India-Middle East-Europe connectivity corridor, which is the first of its kind initiative on cooperation on connectivity and infrastructure involving India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, EU, France, Italy, Germany, and the United States.

The governments of Saudi Arabia and United States announced that they had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the two countries. The bilateral MoU provides a framework for developing a protocol for establishing intercontinental green transit corridors through the Kingdom to connect the continent of Asia with the continent of Europe.

This project aims to facilitate the transit of renewable electricity and clean hydrogen via transmission cables and pipelines as well as constructing rail linkages.

It is also intended to enhance energy security, support efforts for the development of clean energy, promote digital economy through digital connectivity and transmission of data via fiber cables, and promote trade and transport of goods by rail and through ports.

Saudi Arabia welcomed the role of the United States to facilitate and support the negotiation, establishment, and implementation of the green corridors transit protocol with the relevant countries.

Bangladesh going to be used as battleground of big powers, says Fakhrul

According to The Bangladesh Chronicle, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir fears that Bangladesh was going to be used as a field in the fight of the big powers to establish their supremacy only because of the government’s imprudent diplomacy.

Speaking at a rally, he also voiced concern over Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comment that the United States and its allies are trying to promote their interests in the South Asia region by using the Indo-Pacific strategy with their goal of countering China and Isolate Russia.

“What the Russian foreign minister said after arriving here has clearly manifested that Bangladesh is going to be used as a field in the sphere of influence of the big powers in their struggle for hegemony. It’s very alarming,” the BNP leader said.

He alleged that the Awami League government is completely responsible for creating such a situation and inviting danger for the nation. “They, the government, are making irresponsible statements and conducting their diplomacy imprudently to push Bangladesh to such a dire situation.”

Jatiyatabadi Mohila Dal brought out a rally in front of BNP’s Nayapaltan central office, marking its 45th funding anniversary. BNP founder Ziaur Rahman formed Mahila Dal, the female wing of the party, on September 09, 1978.

Lavrov arrived in Dhaka on a two-day visit and held a bilateral meeting with Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen.

 

Why Modi is keen in calling India Bharat?

Dinner invites referring Bharat rather than India have fueled a political row and public debate over what the country should be called as the country prepares to welcome world leaders for the G20 summit.

Invites issued by the “President of Bharat,” instead of the customary “President of India,” were sent to delegates from the world’s 20 top economies for a dinner to be hosted by Indian President Droupadi Murmu on Saturday.

Both India and Bharat are used officially in the nation of 1.4 billion people, which has more than 20 official languages.

“India, that is Bharat, shall be a Union of States,” the country’s constitution states.

Bharat is also the Hindi word for India and is used interchangeably – both feature on Indian passports for example.

But its use on the invites marks a notable change in the naming convention used by the country on the international stage under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The G20 summit is a first for India as Modi aims to raise New Delhi’s global clout following nearly a decade-long tenure in power in which he has positioned himself as a leader intent on shedding the country’s colonial past – emphasizing the need to liberate ourselves from the slavery mindset.

Britain ruled India for about 200 years until it gained independence in 1947 and those who prefer Bharat say the name the country is best known by globally is a remnant of the colonial era.

The name India has been derived by ancient Western civilizations from the Sanskrit word for the Indus River – Sindhu – and was later adapted by the British Empire.

“The word ‘India’ is an abuse given to us by the British, whereas the word ‘Bharat’ is a symbol of our culture,” Harnath Singh Yadav, a BJP politician, told Indian broadcaster ANI.

Meanwhile, former India cricket star Virender Sehwag urged the sport’s officials to use Bharat on players’ shirts during the Men’s Cricket World Cup, which will be held in India this year.

“We are Bhartiyas, India is a name given by the British and it has been long overdue to get our original name ‘Bharat’ back officially,” he said on social media.

During its time in power, Modi’s government has made steps to steer the country away from what it has called “vestiges of British rule” and to free itself from its “colonial baggage.”

These efforts also include renaming roads and buildings related to both India’s Mughal as well as its colonial past.

For example, in 2022, the government renamed Rajpath, a 3-kilometer (1.8-mile) boulevard formerly known as Kingsway that runs through the heart of New Delhi. The new official name, Kartavya Path, would “remove any trace of colonial mindset,” the government said.

And in 2018, three Indian islands named after British rulers were renamed in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, to erase “these signs of slavery.”

But the use of “Bharat” on the G20 invites has raised eyebrows among opposition leaders.

“While there is no constitutional objection to calling India ‘Bharat’, which is one of the country’s two official names, I hope the government will not be so foolish as to completely dispense with ‘India’, which has incalculable brand value built up over centuries,” Shashi Tharoor, a former diplomat and prominent lawmaker from the main opposition Congress party, said on social media.

Tharoor is also the author of “Inglorious Empire”, a work of non-fiction that excoriates colonial Britain’s rule of India.

India's opposition is uniting to unseat Modi in next year's election. Should he be worried?

In July, the leaders from 26 Indian opposition parties formed an alliance – known as INDIA (or the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) – in a bid to unseat Modi in the next general election.

Coined to evoke a sense of nationalism ahead of the 2024 polls, the INDIA alliance said its goal was upholding the country’s democratic institutions.

Modi’s government has come under scrutiny from rights groups and opposition lawmakers for its increasingly strident brand of Hindu nationalist politics, an ongoing crackdown on dissent, and a tightening grip on the country’s democratic institutions.

Modi has denied a crackdown, saying in a rare June press conference at the White House that when “there are no human rights, then it’s not a democracy,” and “there’s absolutely no space for discrimination” in the country.

Some opposition politicians said the government’s use of Bharat was a response to the formation of the INDIA alliance.

“How can the BJP strike down ‘INDIA’? The country doesn’t belong to a political party; it belongs to [all] Indians,” Aam Aadmi Party lawmaker Raghav Chadha, an alliance member, said on social media. “Our national identity is not the BJP’s personal property that it can modify on whims and fancies.”

But in an interview with ANI, India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar said India “is Bharat.”

“It is there in the constitution. I would invite everybody to read it,” he said.

“When you say Bharat,” it evokes a “sense, a meaning and a connotation,” he said.

“I think that is reflected in our constitution as well

 

Pakistan Victim of Geopolitics

I am pleased to share one of my articles published in Eurasia Review on December 27, 2012. Despite lapse of more than a decade, many of the assertions seem most current as Pakistan continue to suffer from unabated interference of the super powers. 

Since independence Pakistan has remained the focus of global and regional powers. The country is termed a natural corridor for trade ‑ including energy products ‑ gateway to Central Asia and landlocked Afghanistan.

There is a perception that often regimes are installed and toppled in Pakistan by the super powers to achieve their vested interest. This is evident from cold war era to occupation of Afghanistan and from love and hate relationship with India to creation of Taliban (phantom now having many offspring).

At present Pakistan is facing extremely volatile situation, which has become a threat for its own existence. Fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country. Pakistan is suffering from the influx of foreign militant groups getting funds and arms from different global operators.

Analysts say over the years Pakistan has been towing foreign and military policy of the United States, which has often offended USSR, China, India and Iran. Therefore, one needs to analyze Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, India and Iran, enjoying common borders with the country. It may not be wrong to say that at present Pakistan doesn’t enjoy cordial relation with none of these countries.

Pakistan helped Afghans in averting USSR attack. After the pullout of USSR forces Afghanistan plunged into civil war. It was often alleged that Pushtoons were supported by Pakistan and Northern Alliance was highly annoyed. After 9/11 Pakistan was made to fight Taliban under the US dictate. As the time for withdrawal of Nato forces is getting closer Pakistan once again faces a precarious position.

When British Raj left the subcontinent in 1947 it left a thorn, Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have been living in constant state of war, spending billions of dollars annually on the purchase of conventional as well as non-conventional arms and have also attained the status of atomic powers. However, both the countries suffer from extreme poverty. There seems no probability of reconciliation between the two countries because of presence of hawks on both the sides. Even the trade relations could not be normalized due to Kashmir dispute as Hindus are not ready for another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion.

Pakistan and Iran have enjoyed the best time till toppling of Shah’s rule as both the countries were under the US influence. Iran has been persistently enduring economic sanctions for more than three decades after the Islamic revolution. Pakistan is suffering from severe energy crisis but not allowed to construct Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline or even buy Iranian crude oil under food for oil program. Iran has often complaint that certain outfits, most notorious being Jundullah, having its base in Balochistan province of Pakistan, are involved in cross border terrorism.

Pakistan also faces a difficult situation when Saudi Arabia, under the US pressure asks it to do or not to do certain things. One such example is Saudi Arabia promising to meet Pakistan’s oil requirement if it opts not to buy Iranian oil. There are also allegations and counter allegations that Saudi Arabia and Iran are supporting Sunni and Shia factions in Pakistan. This point is being highlighted by referring to sectarian killings. However, Pakistanis have no doubt that killing is being done by those who are neither Sunni nor Shia. This point got credence when it was discovered that Taliban involved in attack on Peshawar airbase had tattoos on their bodies.

Till today, Pakistan offers the shortest and cost effective route to landlocked Afghanistan, leading to Central Asian countries. Gwadar deep seaport has been constructed in Balochistan province with the financial and technical assistance of China. India often raises its concerns on Chinese presence along Pakistan’s coastal belt. However, India is not only constructing Chabahar port in Iran but also road and rail links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

Pakistanis completely fail to understand the duality of US policy. India was asked to withdraw itself from Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and also rewarded nuclear technology in return. On top of that it has not been stopped from building port and supporting infrastructure in Iran. Some experts say all this is being done to construct an alternate route once the objective of creation of greater Balochistan is achieved. This new country will be created taking one slice each from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The level of US pressure on Pakistan can also be gauged from the fact that President, Asif Ali Zardari, on the eleventh hour, cancelled his visit to Tehran and went straight to UK. The new date of his visit to Iran has not been announced as yet. This reminds Pakistani’s of a similar cancelled visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and he instead went to United States.

It is also on record that Chinese experts working in Pakistan have often come under attack to make them leave Pakistan. Chinese experts working on Gwadar and Thar coal projects have been repeatedly attacked. At one stage it was feared that Chinese will completely withdraw their support for Thar coal mining and power plant.

China has also complaints that some extremist Muslim groups are trying to create disturbance in one of its province bordering with Pakistan. It seems these attempts are made to disrupt trade being done through this land route.

 

 

Chinese President to skip G-20 meeting

Who shows up where can be very revealing 

According to Bloomberg, for the first time since he took power, Chinese President Xi Jinping will skip a Group of 20 summit. Instead, China is sending Premier Li Qiang to the event hosted by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That’s a clear signal of the relative value he places on the G-20 — set up with US backing in the late 1990s — versus the newly expanding BRICS grouping. 

Xi just made one of his rare 2023 overseas visits last month, to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa, where he successfully pressed for its expansion to include commodity powerhouses including Saudi Arabia, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates.

The new BRICS-11 will account for a major share of key global inputs, according to calculations by Center for Strategic and International Studies researchers Gracelin Baskaran and Ben Cahill: a) 42% of the world’s oil supply, b072% percent of rare earth minerals- with three of the five nations with the largest reserves, c) 75% of the world’s manganese, d) 50% of global graphite and e) 28% of nickel

“It is quite possible that a more coordinated approach” toward export restrictions to the rest of the world could now develop among the BRICS-11, the CSIS analysts wrote.

In the energy field, the group features both major oil and gas producers as well as two of the largest importers, in China and India.

Therefore, there is an incentive for members to set up mechanisms to trade commodities outside the reach of the G-7 financial sector, Baskaran and Cahill wrote.

Ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers — who was in government when the G-20 began — says the enlarged BRICS is a symptom of the US abdicating global leadership in the cause of economic nationalism. Whereas Washington once championed free-trade deals, now its focus is on import restrictions and a buy American bias, he says.

Whenever anybody says they care about producers, not low prices for consumers, they are adopting a negative sum, ‘all-against-all’ vision of international economic policy that invites challenges to the post-WWII vision the US once championed, says Summers, a paid contributor to Bloomberg Television.

The BRICS-11 has its own challenges. Bloomberg’s geo-economics team, led by Jennifer Welch, cautions that the dollar is unlikely to be dethroned by any push by the group to use alternatives.

India-China border tensions, part of the backdrop to Xi’s skipping the G-20, are a bar to BRICS-11 coordination. President Joe Biden, who will be showing up in New Delhi this week, has every incentive to keep Modi aloof from China. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s attendance marks her fourth visit to India in 10 months, highlighting the US focus on that relationship.

Biden and Xi will both be no-shows at the Asean summit of Southeast Asian nations and key trading partners in Jakarta, Indonesia, this week, a missed chance for both.

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will be — a great opportunity for this key US ally to show support for the region in the wake of a provocative Chinese map that sowed acrimony there.

And to share a stage with regional counterparts as China tries to isolate Japan over its discharge of treated wastewater from wrecked Fukushima reactors into the Pacific.

 

India steps up coal use to stop outages

According to a Reuters report, India has stepped up the use of coal to generate electricity in a bid to stop outages caused by lower hydroelectricity output, and as an increase in renewables is struggling to keep pace with record power demand.

It is unusual for India's electricity use to spike in August, when temperatures are lower due to the annual monsoon that runs between June and September. Demand typically peaks in May, when Indians crank up air-conditioners to beat the heat, and industries operate without rain-related disruptions.

However, the driest August in more than a century has resulted in power generation surging to a record 162.7 billion kilowatt hours (units), a Reuters analysis of data from the federal grid operator Grid India showed.

Coal's share in power output rose to 66.7% in August - the highest for the month in six years, according to a Reuters analysis of government data. Lower rainfall lead to the share of hydro power in overall output plunging to 14.8%, compared with 18.1% in the same period last year.

The government has repeatedly defended the use of coal citing lower per capita emissions compared with richer nations, and rising renewable energy output.

Despite higher demand for coal, power plants have slashed imports by 24% to 17.85 million metric tons during the first four months of the fiscal year ending in March 2024, government data showed, due to a 10.7% increase in production by state-run Coal India.

Lower imports by the world's second largest importer of the polluting fuel behind China have kept global thermal coal prices depressed in recent months.

Analysts and industry officials attribute the higher power use to farmers using more electricity to irrigate fields due to insufficient rain, intermittency of renewables, and increased cooling demand with warmer-than-usual temperatures.

"Given the already stressed supply situation, as poor monsoon in August resulted in high agricultural demand, the sudden fall of wind generation ... has further aggravated the situation," power analytics firm EMA Solutions said in a LinkedIn post on Thursday.

India's peak demand - the maximum capacity required during any time of the day - rose to a record 243.9 gigawatts (GW) on August 31, the Grid India data showed, exceeding available capacity by 7.3 GW.

Electricity supply fell short of demand by 780 million units in August, the data showed, marking the highest shortage since April 2022, when India faced its worst power cuts in six and a half years.

Weather officials expect country-wide rainfall in September to be in line with the long-term average, possibly providing some respite to utility operators.

Coal's share in output rose to 74.2% in the eight months that ended in August, the Grid India data showed, compared with 72.9% in the same period last year and on track for a third consecutive annual increase. The share of hydro fell from 10.9% to 9.2%.

Overall power generation has risen by more than 108 billion units this year, dwarfing an increase of about 16 billion units in renewable generation.

India failed to achieve a target to install 175 GW in renewable energy by 2022, and has since stated that it would try to boost non-fossil capacity - solar and wind energy, nuclear and hydro power, and bio-power - to 500 GW by 2030.

Achieving that target would require over 43 GW more of non-fossil capacity every year, nearly three-times the average non-fossil capacity addition over the last two years to July.

 

Expansion of BRICS: What are the economic implications?

In late August it was announced that from 2024, the BRICS—a political grouping that currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—will admit six new members: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia.

The eleven countries combined represent around 45% of the planet’s population, over 40% of world oil production and roughly a third of global GDP. The BRICS average economic growth rate is likely to be notably above the global average. That said, the G7’s GDP is still substantially larger at market prices, and should remain so over the medium term.

The group’s key economic institution, the New Development Bank (NDB), is still tiny in comparison to other multilateral lenders. The Bank has financed projects worth around US$33 billion since 2015; in contrast, the World Bank alone committed around US$50 billion each year over the same period.

Other overarching economic structures are lacking, and a BRICS trade deal seems difficult to fathom given members’ vastly different stages of development and policy priorities.

Internal geopolitical disputes could further complicate economic rapprochement between members: Egypt and Ethiopia are at loggerheads over a dam on the Nile River, relations between Iran and its Gulf neighbors are still strained, and there are tensions between India and China over their shared Himalayan border and Indian restrictions on Chinese imports and technology.

The expansion of the BRICS could encourage greater political overtures and financial generosity from the G7 towards emerging markets going forward; the G20 summit later this year will be key to watch, with the UN calling on US$500 billion of annual financing from wealthy nations.

More countries are likely to join the BRICS in the coming years, as current members—particularly China and Russia—look to bolster an alternative to the G7-led world order.

BRICS members will increasingly conduct intra-member trade in local currencies to reduce dependence on the dollar, with the yuan and rupee set to be major beneficiaries.

That said, the US dollar will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future - incumbency, dollar liquidity, the strength of the US economy, and the reliability of the US government as a debt issuer are key advantages. As for the BRICS grouping as a whole, it is likely to remain more of a political than an economic force.

On the BRICS’ prospects, EIU analysts said, “The BRICS group will not become a solid construction, regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall, and it will continue to face internal tensions and divisions. However, the expansion will bolster its geopolitical significance and its combined economic power, and the organization will continue to evolve. The relatively trouble-free and productive BRICS summit will enhance South Africa’s standing without damaging its relations with key Western partners.”

On the future of the dollar, ING analysts said, “Until international issuers and investors are happy to issue and hold international debt in non-dollar currencies – and the take-up of CNY Panda bonds has been very slow indeed – we suspect this will be a decade-long progression to a multi-polar world, a world in which perhaps the dollar, the euro and the renminbi become the dominant currencies in the Americas, Europe and Asia respectively.”

Courtesy: Focus Economics

China tells India to stay calm in map row

According to the Saudi Gazette, China has told India to stay calm over a new Chinese map that Delhi says lays claim to its territory. India protested after Beijing released the map showing the north-eastern Arunachal Pradesh state and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau as China's territory.

Beijing responded by saying its neighbours should refrain from over-interpreting the issue.

Meanwhile, media reports say Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to skip next week's G20 leaders’ talks in Delhi.

Unconfirmed reports suggest Premier Li Quang will attend instead. Xi had earlier confirmed he would travel to Delhi for the meeting from 9-10 September, but China's foreign ministry did not confirm his attendance when asked to do so at a regular press briefing on Thursday.

India is not the only country to object to the map — on Thursday, the Philippines and Malaysia issued protests against China's claim of ownership over most of the South China Sea in the map. Taiwan — which China says is a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control — also objected to its inclusion in the map.

A politician from Nepal also cancelled a visit to China, saying the new map did not take into account the country's revised map, which has already sparked tensions with India.

The escalation over the 2023 edition of China's standard national map comes just days after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi spoke on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in South Africa.

Indian foreign minister, Foreign Minister Jaishankar called China's claim absurd. An Indian official said afterwards that the two countries had agreed to intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation along the disputed border.

On Thursday China indicated it wasn't budging on the map — the disputed border is an issue which has bedevilled relations for years.

"It is a routine practice in China's exercise of sovereignty in accordance with the law," foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said.

"We hope relevant sides can stay objective and calm, and refrain from over-interpreting the issue."

India has often reacted angrily to China's attempts to stake claim to its territory.

The source of the tension between the neighbours is a disputed 3,440km (2,100 mile)-long de facto border along the Himalayas - called the Line of Actual Control, or LAC — which is poorly demarcated and soldiers on either side come face to face at many points.

China says it considers the whole of Arunachal Pradesh its territory, calling it South Tibet — a claim India firmly rejects. India claims the Aksai Chin plateau in the Himalayas, which is controlled by China.

Relations between India and China have worsened since 2020, when their troops were involved in a deadly clash at the Galwan valley in Ladakh - it was the first fatal confrontation between the two sides since 1975. 

Bangladesh faces deluge after India opens Gajoldoba barrage gates

According to media reports, the flood situation has now shifted to northern Bangladesh after recent flooding in Chittagong. This shift comes after India opened all gates of the Gajoldoba barrage, causing the waters of the region’s rivers to significantly swell.

Several areas on the bank of Teesta River in Gaibandha and Kurigram have been inundated by floods triggered by water from the upstream and heavy rains. As a result, hundreds of families have become marooned in these two districts.

Around 30 meters of the flood control spur dam in the Teesta River at Burirhat in Rajarhat upazila of Kurigram have been washed away.

Rivers in the district kept swelling due to the onrush of water from the upstream, flooding low-lying areas in Rajarhat upazila.

The Teesta was flowing 30cm above its danger level at Kawniya rail bridge point Sunday morning.

Sardar Uday Raihan, executive engineer of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), said that heavy rainfall in West Bengal’s Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, and Sikkim regions has led to the surge in water levels.

However, he said, information about the opening and closing of the Gajoldoba barrage’s gates is not consistently communicated by India, making it challenging for Bangladesh to predict water level changes.

A bulletin of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) said there is a chance of medium to heavy rainfall in the northwestern Indian states and adjoining Bangladesh in the next 48 hours in the Brahmaputra basin.

“Water levels of the Teesta may fall to improve the flood situation in low-lying areas of Lalmonirhat and Rangpur districts while Jamuna may flow close to its respective danger marks at several points in the next 24 hours,” the bulletin added.

In Nilphamari, at least 50 houses built under the Ashrayan Project of the government in Dimla area have gone underwater. As a result, the affected families are spending days amid great suffering. Local people said they have nowhere to go as the lone school building in the area is also underwater.

In Gaibandha, a number of houses in the low-lying areas have been inundated. Some families are also in fear of losing their homes due to river erosion.

In Kurigram, 50 houses went into the gorge of the river and 500 houses were inundated by floodwater in Bidyanondo and Ghorialdanga unions of Rajarhat upazila.

Many roads went under flood water that snapped road communication in the two unions, said members of the two union parishads.

Two government primary schools and a kitchen market in Bidyanondo union are on the brink of river erosion.

The FFWC said water levels of Jamuna River are rising and may flow close to their respective danger level at Fulchhari, Bahadurabad and Sariakandi points in the next 24 hours, the bulletin continued.

Levels of water of the Brahmaputra are rising and may flow well below the danger level at Noonkhawa, Hatia, and Chilmari points during the next 24 hours as the rate of onrushing water from upstream lessened during the last 24 hours.

 

 

DP World to invest half a billion dollars in India

Dubai-based ports giant DP World will invest around US$510 million to build a new container terminal at the Kandla port in the Indian state of Gujarat, its group chairman said on Friday.

"It will enable the delivery of trade opportunities by connecting northern, western and central India with global markets," Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, who is also DP World's CEO, said after the signing of an agreement between the Deendayal Port Authority and DP World officials.

The Indian government earlier this year approved a plan by Hindustan Infralog, a joint venture between DP World and the state-owned National Investment and Infrastructure Fund, to develop the terminal on a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) basis.

DP world, which operates in 73 countries, last week reported a nearly 10% fall in first-half profit to US$651 million despite a 13.9%YoY rise in revenue to more than US$9 billion.

The new terminal, which should be completed by early 2027, will boost container traffic in India and reduce the cost of logistics, company officials said.

DP World operates five container terminals in India – two in Mumbai and one each in Mundra, Cochin and Chennai – with a combined capacity of about 6 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs), giving it a market share of 28% of container traffic volume in the country. The new terminal will take the combined capacity to 8.19 million TEUs, a company statement said.

DP World’s Indian port and terminal investments are aligned with the country's Vision 2047, which aims to quadruple port handling capacity and develop logistics infrastructure to boost economic growth, the statement said.

 

United States seeking military cooperation with Bangladesh

A two-day bilateral dialogue between Bangladesh and the United States began in Dhaka today with an aim to discuss cooperation on a myriad of defence topics. The aim of this dialogue is to create an opportunity for wide-ranging discussions on military cooperation between the two countries, said ISPR.

The dialogue will officially end on August 24.

Director General at the Bangladesh Armed Forces Division Brig Gen Husain Muhammad Masihur Rahman is leading the Bangladesh side while Director of Strategic Planning and Policy of the US Indo-Pacific Command Brig Gen Thomas J James is leading the US delegation.

Senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armed Forces Division, Border Guard Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Coast Guard were present on behalf of Bangladesh.

 “The United States and Bangladesh share a vision to ensure the Indo-Pacific region is free, open, peaceful, and secure. In pursuit of these mutual objectives, the Bangladesh Armed Forces Division and Indo-Pacific Command will conduct the bilateral defence dialogue in Dhaka,” US Embassy Spokesperson Bryan Schiller said.

This dialogue, he said, will feature senior officers and civilians from the US and Bangladeshi militaries.

“They will discuss military education, defence articles, and upcoming military exercises, including next year’s disaster response exercise and exchange,” said the spokesperson.

This dialogue, he said, is part of a comprehensive relationship between two countries’ defence establishments, which features cooperation on a myriad of defence topics.

The US said they are encouraged that Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific Outlook declares Bangladesh’s vision for a “free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity for all.

The bilateral defence dialogue between Bangladesh and the US started with a joint declaration in 2012. Since then, every year, the dialogue has taken place alternately in Bangladesh and the USA. The 9th defence dialogue was held on 17-18 May 2022 at Honolulu, Hawaii.

The purpose of this dialogue was to facilitate a broad discussion on bilateral defence and military cooperation as a complement to the strategic dialogue.

Over the years, the two countries have enjoyed cordial diplomatic relations and partnered on a wide range of security issues, including border security, maritime security, counterterrorism, peacekeeping, defence trade, and defence institution building.

The two governments continue to work together to advance a shared vision of a free, open, inclusive, peaceful, and secure Indo-Pacific region.

Earlier, the US delegation had a courtesy meeting with Principal Staff Officer (PSO) of the Armed Forces Division Lieutenant General Waker-Uz-Zaman.

 

 

Can BRICS currency be adopted?

Brazilian President called on Wednesday for the BRICS nations to create a common currency for trade and investment between each other, as a means of reducing their vulnerability to dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made the proposal at a BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Officials and economists have pointed out the difficulties involved in such a project, given the economic, political and geographic disparities between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Brazilian president doesn't believe nations that don't use the dollar should be forced to trade in the currency, and he has also advocated for a common currency in the Mercosur bloc of South American countries.

A BRICS currency increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities, he told the summit's opening plenary session.

South African officials had said a BRICS currency was not on the agenda for the summit.

I n July, India's foreign minister said, "There is no idea of a BRICS currency". Its foreign secretary said before departing for the summit that boosting trade in national currencies would be discussed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the gathering, which he attended via video link, would discuss switching trade between member countries away from the dollar to national currencies.

China has not commented on the idea. President Xi Jinping spoke at the summit of promoting the reform of the international financial and monetary system.

Building a BRICS currency would be a political project, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago told a radio station in July.

"If you want it, you'll have to get a banking union, you'll have to get a fiscal union, you've got to get macroeconomic convergence," Kganyago said.

"Importantly, you need a disciplining mechanism for the countries that fall out of line with it... Plus they will need a common central bank... where does it get located?"

Trade imbalances are also a problem, Herbert Poenisch, a senior fellow at Zhejiang University, wrote in a blog for think-tank OMFIF.

All BRICS member countries have China as their main trading partner and little trade with each other.

BRICS leaders have said they want to use their national currencies more instead of the dollar, which strengthened sharply last year as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and Russia invaded Ukraine, making dollar debt and many imports more expensive.

Russia's sanctions-imposed exile from global financial systems last year also fuelled speculation that non-western allies would shift away from the dollar.

"The objective, irreversible process of de-dollarisation of our economic ties is gaining momentum," Putin told the summit on Tuesday.

The greenback's share of official foreign exchange reserves fell to a 20-year low of 58% in the final quarter of 2022, and 47% when adjusted for exchange rate changes, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The dollar still dominates global trade. It is on one side of almost 90% of global foreign exchange transactions, according to Bank of International Settlements Data.

De-dollarizing would need countless exporters and importers, as well as borrowers, lenders and currency traders across the world, to independently decide to use other currencies.

 

Chinese President calls for BRICS unity

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for unity among his BRICS counterparts at a summit in South Africa on Wednesday as he pushed the case for expanding the grouping to face a global period of turbulence and transformation.

Leaders of the bloc of leading developing nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting in Johannesburg with discussions around establishing a framework and criteria for admitting new members topping the agenda.

While all BRICS members have publicly expressed support for growing the bloc, divisions remain over how much and how quickly.

Bloc heavyweight China has long pushed for expansion and views its deteriorating relations with Washington as well as heightened global tensions resulting from the Ukraine war as adding urgency to the enlargement project.

"The world is undergoing major shifts, division and regrouping ... it has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation," Xi said.

"We, the BRICS countries, should always bear in mind our founding purpose of strengthening ourselves through unity."

BRICS group countries have economies that are vastly different in scale and governments that often seem to have few foreign policy goals in common, complicating decision-making.

The economy of China for example, is more than 40 times larger than South Africa's, Africa's most developed country.

Russia, isolated by the United States and Europe over its invasion of Ukraine, is also pushing to quickly grow BRICS and forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, sees BRICS membership as a way of showing the West he still has friends.

He did not travel to South Africa but used a video address to attack Western powers.

"I want to note that it was the desire to maintain their hegemony in the world, the desire of some countries to maintain this hegemony that led to the severe crisis in Ukraine," he said.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that he and Xi had similar positions on BRICS expansion. But pushback has come from Brazil and India, which have both forged closer ties with the West.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Tuesday rejected the idea the bloc should seek to rival the United States and Group of Seven wealthy economies.

While he is pushing for neighbour Argentina to join, he said any new members would need to meet certain conditions, so the group does not become a "Tower of Babel".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Wednesday his country, which is wary of Chinese dominance, fully supported expansion.

However, an Indian official familiar with discussions late on Tuesday between the leaders said Modi indicated there have to be ground rules about how it should happen and who can join.

India and China periodically clash over their disputed Himalayan border.

More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials, 22 of whom have formally asked to be admitted.

Details of criteria for joining could be included in a joint declaration due to be finalized on Wednesday.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies in trade and financial transactions to lessen dependency of the US dollar is also on the summit agenda.

South African organizers had said there would be no discussions of a common BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

At least 15 potential new member countries - including Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Argentina - are under consideration to join the bloc's New Development Bank (NDB), its chief financial officer said on Wednesday.

The NDB, which has long tapped China's capital market for funding, is registering an Indian rupee bond program worth US$2.5 billion over five years, after it issued its first South African rand bond last week.

 

BRICS no rival to G7 and G20, says Lula

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday that the BRICS bloc of nations aims to organize the developing Global South and is not meant to rival the United States and the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy economies.

His comments point to a divergence of vision as leaders of the bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - arrived in Johannesburg for a summit that will weigh expanding the group as some members push to forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Heightened global tensions provoked by the Ukraine war and Beijing's growing rivalry with the United States have pushed China and Russia - whose President Vladimir Putin will attend the meeting virtually - to seek to strengthen the BRICS bloc.

Their vision of an expanded BRICS capable of rivaling US and European global dominance has, however, been met with skepticism by some members. And the outcome of the debate over enlargement could determine the future of a bloc long criticized for a lack of cohesion.

"We do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States," Brazil's Lula said on Tuesday during a social media broadcast from Johannesburg. "We just want to organize ourselves."

Summit host South Africa welcomed China's Xi Jinping, the leading proponent of enlarging BRICS, for a state visit on Tuesday morning ahead of meetings with the grouping's other leaders planned for later in the day.

"I am confident that the upcoming summit will be an important milestone in the development of the BRICS mechanism," Xi said shortly after his arrival in South Africa.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said during a bilateral meeting with Xi that their two countries had similar views regarding expansion.

"We share your view, President Xi, that BRICS is a vitally important forum which plays an important role in the reform of global governance and in the promotion of multilateralism and cooperation throughout the world," he said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also attending the August 22 to 24 summit.

Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, will not travel to South Africa.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies is also on the summit agenda. South African organizers, however, say there will be no discussions of a BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil earlier this year as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

BRICS remains a disparate group, ranging from China, the world's second biggest economy now grappling with a slowdown, to South Africa, an economic minnow facing a power crisis that's led to daily blackouts.

Russia is being hammered by sanctions over its war in Ukraine is keen to show the West it still has friends.

India, however, has increasingly reached out to the West, as has Brazil under its new leader.

Two members - India and China - have periodically clashed along their disputed border, adding to the challenge of decision-making in a group that relies on consensus.

Expansion has long been a goal of China, which hopes that broader membership will lend clout to a grouping already home to some 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global GDP.

The leaders will hold a mini-retreat and dinner on Tuesday evening where they are likely to discuss a framework and criteria for admitting new countries.

India, which is wary of Chinese dominance and has warned against rushing expansion, has positive intent and an open mind, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said on Monday.

Brazil, meanwhile, is concerned that expanding BRICS will dilute its influence, though Lula reiterated on Tuesday his desire to see neighbour Argentina join the bloc.

While a potential BRICS enlargement remains up in the air, the grouping's pledge to become a champion of the developing world and offer an alternative to a world order dominated by wealthy Western nations is already finding resonance.

Over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials. Of them, nearly two dozen have formally asked to be admitted, with some expected to send delegations to Johannesburg.

 

US steps to destabilize Hasina government not positive for South Asia

This morning I was not surprised to read an Indian claim that the US indulgence in destabilizing Hasina’s Government in Bangladesh could destabilize South Asia. People around the world can recall the US was also accused of toppling Imran Khan Government in Pakistan.

India has conveyed to the United States that the way various steps are being taken by the US to destabilize the Hasina Government was not positive for the overall security of India as a neighboring country and South Asia as a whole, reports Anandabazar Patrika.

India is not happy with the current role of the United States centering the upcoming elections in Bangladesh and this message has also been conveyed to Washington, said the newspaper published from Kolkata.

In next three weeks, US president Joe Biden and Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina will share the same stage in New Delhi as they will attend G20 Leaders Summit.

Before that, this message from India is considered to be significant enough, according to Anandabazar.

South Block (the seat of India’s external affairs ministry) thinks that if Jamaat-e-Islami is given ‘political concession’ Dhaka will be taken over by fundamentalism in the near future, reads the report that also mentioned that the liberal environment that exists will no longer exist.

According to diplomatic sources, New Delhi communicated this to the Biden administration at multiple levels of meetings.

According to the diplomatic camp, the security system of the entire region has turned upside down after the decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan. India’s Northeast Frontier region is in a dangerous situation said the report.

The Taliban is now at the peak of power in Afghanistan.

It is believed that the US made a closed-door deal with Afghanistan without considering its women, children and minorities, and is now facing the consequences.

The Ministry of External Affairs feels that America’s policy towards Kabul as well as India’s other neighbours is increasing New Delhi’s discomfort with questions of national interest, said the report.

Bangladesh has the longest land border with India. As a result, any adverse situation in that country affects India as well.

Quoting the sources, the report mentioned that New Delhi has told the Biden administration that if the Jamaat is patronized to grow, India’s cross-border terrorism can increase and China’s influence in Bangladesh will increase a lot, which is not desired by Washington.

It is believed that America always tries to show Jamaat as an Islamic political organization.

America compared Jamaat with the Muslim Brotherhood. But in reality, the report said, New Delhi is in no doubt that the Jamaat is in the hands of radical fundamentalist organizations and Pakistan.

The Biden administration has announced a separate visa policy for Bangladesh only.

According to sources, New Delhi does not think it is justified at all.

As a result of this new visa policy, those who try to disrupt the upcoming elections in Bangladesh will not be allowed to enter America.

The diplomatic camp feels that the American administration directly interfered with the internal politics of Bangladesh by applying its own country’s laws and adopting a separate visa policy for that country, reads the report.

Recently, a five-member delegation of Bangladesh Awami League visited New Delhi and held meetings with the top leadership of BJP and the ministers of the central government.

There, they also gave a message that the BNP-Jamaat alliance is dangerous in terms of maintaining regional stability.

Leader of the delegation Agriculture Minister Abdur Razzaque held a positive meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister  S Jaishankar.

Right after that meeting, he said, “We told India that regional stability is important for both countries. The government led by prime minister Sheikh Hasina is committed to not allowing the soil of Bangladesh to be used for anti-India activities.”