It is unusual for India's electricity use to spike in
August, when temperatures are lower due to the annual monsoon that runs between
June and September. Demand typically peaks in May, when Indians crank up
air-conditioners to beat the heat, and industries operate without rain-related
disruptions.
However,
the driest August in more than a century has resulted in power generation
surging to a record 162.7 billion kilowatt hours (units), a Reuters analysis of
data from the federal grid operator Grid India showed.
Coal's share in power output rose to 66.7% in August - the
highest for the month in six years, according to a Reuters analysis of
government data. Lower rainfall lead to the share of hydro power in overall
output plunging to 14.8%, compared with 18.1% in the same period last year.
The government has repeatedly defended the use of coal
citing lower per capita emissions compared with richer nations, and rising
renewable energy output.
Despite higher demand for coal, power plants have slashed
imports by 24% to 17.85 million metric tons during the first four months of the
fiscal year ending in March 2024, government data showed, due to a 10.7%
increase in production by state-run Coal India.
Lower imports by the world's second largest importer of the
polluting fuel behind China have kept global thermal coal prices depressed in
recent months.
Analysts and industry officials attribute the higher power
use to farmers using more electricity to irrigate fields due to insufficient
rain, intermittency of renewables, and increased cooling demand with
warmer-than-usual temperatures.
"Given the already stressed supply situation, as poor
monsoon in August resulted in high agricultural demand, the sudden fall of wind
generation ... has further aggravated the situation," power analytics firm
EMA Solutions said in a LinkedIn post on Thursday.
India's peak demand - the maximum capacity required during
any time of the day - rose to a record 243.9 gigawatts (GW) on August 31, the
Grid India data showed, exceeding available capacity by 7.3 GW.
Electricity supply fell short of demand by 780 million units
in August, the data showed, marking the highest shortage since April 2022, when
India faced its worst power cuts in six and a half years.
Weather officials expect country-wide rainfall in September
to be in line with the long-term average, possibly providing some respite to
utility operators.
Coal's share in output rose to 74.2% in the eight months
that ended in August, the Grid India data showed, compared with 72.9% in the
same period last year and on track for a third consecutive annual increase. The
share of hydro fell from 10.9% to 9.2%.
Overall power generation has risen by more than 108 billion
units this year, dwarfing an increase of about 16 billion units in renewable
generation.
India failed to achieve a target to install 175 GW in
renewable energy by 2022, and has since stated that it would try to boost
non-fossil capacity - solar and wind energy, nuclear and hydro power, and
bio-power - to 500 GW by 2030.
Achieving that target would require over 43 GW more of
non-fossil capacity every year, nearly three-times the average non-fossil
capacity addition over the last two years to July.
