Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Tuesday 26 March 2024

US refuses to support Pak-Iran gas pipeline

The news that United States could impose sanctions on the country if it goes ahead with Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has been received with utter disappointment. It is likely to increase hatred against the super power, which is alleged of toppling Iman Khan Government in Pakistan.

According to DAWN, the US said on Tuesday it does not support a Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project from going forward and cautioned about the risk of sanctions in doing business with Tehran.

A day earlier, Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik had said that Islamabad would seek exemption from US sanctions over the gas pipeline project.

The Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline is a long-term project between Tehran and Islamabad, and has faced delays and funding challenges for several years.

“We always advise everyone that doing business with Iran runs the risk of touching upon and coming in contact with our sanctions, and would advise everyone to consider that very carefully,” a US State Department spokesperson told reporters in a press briefing.

“We do not support this pipeline going forward,” the spokesperson added, saying that Donald Lu, the State Department’s top official for South and Central Asia, had said as much to a congressional panel last week.

 

 

Saturday 23 March 2024

US opposition of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline

While US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu’s recent testimony before a Congressional panel contained no bombshells about the cipher saga, the American diplomat’s replies to questions from lawmakers about the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline should certainly be cause for concern.

American reservations over the gas project clearly infringe on Pakistan’s sovereign right to take independent foreign policy decisions.

Lu told lawmakers that it was an American goal to ensure the pipeline is not completed. Using highly undiplomatic language, he observed that if they [Pakistan] get in bed with Iran, it will be very serious for our relationship.

The Foreign Office reaction to these comments was measured, as the spokesperson told the media that there was no room for discussion on a third-party [US] waiver, while the pipeline plays an important role in Pakistan’s energy security.

It is hoped that the state remains steadfast in upholding its commitments to the project, and rejects unwarranted foreign pressure.

Until the caretaker government gave the go-ahead for revitalizing the pipeline last month, the scheme had been in the doldrums for over a decade, mainly out of concern over attracting America’s wrath.

Pakistan should be the best judge of its energy requirements, and unsolicited advice such as that offered by Lu should be rejected with thanks. The American official also questioned how Pakistan would procure the financing to complete the scheme. Again, that should be Pakistan’s headache, not anyone else’s.

The fact is that the Iran pipeline appears to be a viable energy project, as the other major regional scheme — the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline — is in deep freeze particularly after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Moreover, if Pakistan reneges on the deal with Iran, it risks entering a messy litigation process, and paying a hefty US$18 billion in penalty.

Lu’s comments should also serve as a warning to our policymakers of the demands some of our friends may make of us in future as geopolitical turbulence increases.

For instance, today, Washington has issues with CPEC and the Iran pipeline; tomorrow it could let its displeasure be known regarding our relations with Moscow or other American foes.

Pakistan should be ready to face such criticism, and take decisions that are in the national interest.

Pakistan values its ties with the US and other Western states. But this does not mean relations with other states/ blocs should be held hostage to the whims of its Western partners.

However, it is also true that Pakistan can only take truly independent decisions when it does not have to depend on others to keep its economy afloat.

India and China can ignore US strictures about not trading with Russia because of their economic heft. Pakistan must heal itself if it wants to achieve true sovereignty.

Courtesy: Dawn

Tuesday 19 March 2024

Iran Expo 2024 to host 3,000 foreigners

Some 3,000 foreign traders and businessmen are expected to participate in the 6th International Export Potential Exhibition of the Islamic Republic of Iran, dubbed Iran Expo 2024, an official with the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) said.

The exhibition will be inaugurated on April 27 and run through May 1, 2024, the ICCIMA deputy head for commissions, assemblies, and council affairs stated in a meeting held with the participation of representatives of the joint chamber of commerce.

Noting that the first edition of the Iran Expo was held in 2013, Ali Chagharvand predicted that 3,000 foreign traders and merchants from various countries would partake in the latest edition of the exhibition.

This exhibition will cover seven major groups of commodities including food industries, agriculture and fisheries, handwoven carpets, handicrafts and tourism, medicine, medical equipment and chemical products, building industry, technical and engineering services, and also the petrochemical group.

Promoting trade and economic relations with other countries, booming production, propelling the business environment of the private sector to the international arena, and creating a new trade and economic discourse with various countries have been cited as the main aims of holding the exhibition.

The meeting was attended by the Chairman of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce Majid Reza Hariri and Vice Chairman of the Iran-Russia Joint Chamber of Commerce Roshanali Yekta.

 

United States: Disrupter of Global Trade

Washington has taken further steps to increase pressure on Tehran. This time, the White House, despite the negative impact of its decisions on the global stage, has leveraged its political influence on Panama to counter Tehran’s expansion of foreign policy.

The US has opted to exert pressure on Panama to prohibit Iranian vessels, sanctioned by Washington, from flying its flag. During a visit to Panama on Wednesday, Abram Paley, Deputy Special Envoy in the US Office of the Special Envoy for Iran, stated that the measure aims to prevent ships from being utilized for what he termed as illegal actions.

Paley emphasized in a statement that the US is endeavoring to enhance the enforcement of sanctions as part of a broader diplomatic outreach campaign. "Iran and affiliated entities are attempting to circumvent sanctions here in Panama," he remarked. "They seek to exploit Panama's flag registry."

"We anticipate that the Panamanian government will continue to collaborate with us in accordance with their domestic legislation and international commitments," Paley added.

Washington's recent action follows shortly after Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji declared that Tehran's oil sales would remain unaffected by sanctions, even if Donald Trump were to win the US presidential elections in November.

Panama leads globally in providing flags of convenience, enabling shipping companies to register their vessels in countries with which they have no connection — for a fee and exemption from oversight.

It appears that the White House intends to reinforce the implementation of existing sanctions as the regional crisis escalates. This move by Washington stands in stark contrast to what Washington's Iran hawks call Biden's appeasement policy in West Asia.

The United States has consistently wielded its power as leverage to advance its interests, regardless of the potential repercussions on the regional and international scale. This approach is evident in the consistent US formula for intervening in the policy-making systems of other countries.

For instance, Washington's policy towards Caracas and the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela have served as tools for intervening in Venezuela's political system. Similarly, the US employs similar tactics in West Asia, as evidenced by the array of American military bases in the region and unwavering support for Tel Aviv. These actions reflect a policy that prioritizes Washington's interests above all else, irrespective of their broader effects.

The Biden Administration's pressure on Panama exemplifies this approach, indicating that Washington is not inclined to pursue diplomatic channels in its dealings with Iran. Instead, the primary objective appears to be preventing the Islamic Republic of Iran from expanding its political influence.

Despite the Biden administration's initial endorsement of a more conciliatory policy in West Asia and its expressed willingness to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally called the JCPOA, the White House has demonstrated a lack of political resolve to take concrete actions. Moreover, the Biden administration has yet to lift any sanctions on Iran, failing to demonstrate a tangible commitment to resolving issues through diplomatic means. 

The recent US stance in Panama and its maneuver in the Red Sea have triggered alarm bells regarding their potential ramifications on the seamless flow of global trade. What emerges from these developments is a pattern of US behavior wherein the pursuit of its own interests takes precedence, even at the expense of disrupting international commerce. 

Take, for instance, the situation in Panama. The US exertion of pressure seems to transcend the immediate issue at hand, instead serving as a means to constrain Iran's influence. This strategic maneuver underscores Washington's inclination to prioritize geopolitical objectives over the broader interests of global trade. Similarly, the US confrontational stance towards certain factions in the Red Sea region has stirred unnecessary friction along a crucial trade artery.

Such actions raise legitimate concerns about the US approach to international affairs. By prioritizing its own objectives over collaborative efforts aimed at fostering global economic stability, the US risks sowing seeds of discord that could have far-reaching consequences. Indeed, this prioritization of unilateral interests over multilateral cooperation threatens to set off a chain reaction of instability, imperiling the very foundation upon which the global economy rests.

As the world navigates through increasingly complex geopolitical terrain, it becomes imperative for nations to uphold principles of cooperation and mutual benefit. The recent US actions serve as a sobering reminder of the dangers inherent in a myopic pursuit of national interests at the expense of broader global imperatives. Only through concerted efforts to promote dialogue, understanding, and collaboration can we hope to safeguard the integrity of the global trade system and steer clear of the choppy waters of economic uncertainty.

 

 

Monday 18 March 2024

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Friday 15 March 2024

Iran-Pakistan to sign Free Trade Agreement

Iranian Ambassador Dr Reza Amiri Moghadam has indicated that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is likely to be finalized in the upcoming visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan.

Addressing the business community during his visit to the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI), the Iranian envoy said the FTA would increase mutual trade and several bilateral economic and trade agreements would also be signed during the visit.

He also said that the two countries need to have strong air, maritime and sea links, which will strengthen the economic relations and Pakistan, will also be connected to regional and global trade.

The ambassador emphasized the closeness of maritime links, especially Karachi and Gwadar and Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports and said that Gwadar and Chabahar should be declared as sister ports.

The current bilateral trade volume paltry US$2.5 billion. Pakistan and Iran can fulfill 70% of each other’s needs by engaging in mutual trade, just as Iran imports halal meat, Pakistan can do a lot of work in Iran in this sector.

“After the FTA and bilateral agreements for the promotion of mutual trade, there is a strong possibility that the mutual trade between Pakistan and Iran would reach US$5 billion in the next few years,” he added.

The envoy added that the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline was a significant project, which would benefit both the domestic and industrial sectors of Pakistan.

“Iran is serious about resolving Pakistan’s energy problems and that is why Tehran completed the gas pipeline project for US$1 billion in 2009 so that Pakistan could meet its energy needs,” he said, adding that it was essential that the project is completed at the earliest.

He added that Iran was already trading in gas and the energy sector with Turkiye, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, therefore Pakistan can also follow the procedure adopted by these countries.

He acknowledged that the banking channel between Pakistan and Iran was a serious issue, but Iran has banking links with Turkiye, Bahrain and Iraq.

 

Wednesday 13 March 2024

Iranian oil output exceeds 3 million bpd

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report put Iran’s oil output at 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for February 2024.

According to the report OPEC’s total output during the month under review was up 170,000 bpd to 26.47 million bpd.

OPEC’s latest monthly report, however, has put Iran’s crude oil production at 3.148 in February, noting that the Islamic Republic maintained its place as OPEC’s third-biggest oil producer in the month.

According to the mentioned report, the price of Iran’s heavy crude increased by 20 cents in February to reach US$80.34 per barrel.

The director of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) Explorations Department has said the country’s oil explorations registered a 300 percent growth in two years of the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi, who assumed office in August 2021.

Mehdi Fakour said the oil explorations have shown a considerable increase in various sectors as compared to the past five years, Mehr News Agency reported.

He added that the oil explorations made in the first two years of the current administration have registered a 300 percent hike.

The feasibility studies of some explorations have started in the country, he said, adding that negotiations have been made with a number of industrial production companies.

Currently, the oil exploration activities in the country are at a satisfactory level, Fakour added.

Earlier, the Head of the National Iranian Oil Company Mohsen Khojasteh Mehr said that the company has a 100-year vision for exploration, emphasizing that the company is determined to carry out maximum exploration operations to discover and maintain the country’s reserves.

Back in February, the International Monetary Fund in a report on Iran’s microeconomic indicators said the increase in Iran’s oil production in 2023 exceeded expectations.

The fund attributed the increase in its estimate of Iran's economic growth in the mentioned year to the higher-than-expected increase in the country’s oil production.

According to the new estimates of this international entity, Iran's economic growth in 2023 reached 5.4 percent, registering a significant increase compared to the previous year.

The International Monetary Fund had previously estimated that Iran's economic growth would reach only 3.0 percent in 2023.

Iran's crude oil exports grew by roughly 50 percent in 2023 to a five-year high of about 1.29 million bpd, with the vast majority going to China, according to Nikkei Asia.

The report, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), put Iran’s oil production at 2.99 million bpd last year, 440,000 barrels more than in 2022.

As reported, IEA predicts a further rise of 160,000 barrels of Iran’s oil exports in 2024.

This increase is expected to contribute to a less tight market, alongside increases by the US and Brazil. The IEA sees global supply rising by 1.5 million bpd to an all-time high this year.

 

Tuesday 12 March 2024

Iran-China-Russia naval drill in Indian Ocean

The navies of Iran, China, and Russia have initiated joint drills in the northern tip of the Indian Ocean, marking their fifth collaborative military exercise in recent years. Naval delegations from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, and South Africa are present as the observers of the exercises.

Chinese and Russian naval forces have entered Iranian territorial waters to participate in the primary stage of the naval war game, named Maritime Security Belt 2024, near the Gulf of Oman. This international exercise, involving Iran, China, and Russia, underscores a commitment to peace and security in the region.

During a joint press conference with Russian and Chinese commanders, Second Flotilla Admiral Mustafa Taj al-Dini emphasized the strategic significance of this being the fifth joint exercise among the involved countries. He highlighted the objectives of this joint naval drill, including bolstering maritime trade security, combating piracy and terrorism, and fostering cooperation among the participating nations.

According to Taj al-Dini, this security-focused exercise, covering an expansive area of 17,000 square kilometers, aims to address multifaceted challenges. Despite the approaching festivities for the Persian New Year, the spokesperson underscored that security efforts remain steadfast.

Notably, naval units from Iran, China, and Russia, comprising destroyers and missile cruisers, actively contribute to this collaborative initiative.

Iranian naval forces, along with their Chinese and Russian counterparts, have conducted several military drills in recent years to enhance the security and stability of international maritime trade. They have also collaborated in countering piracy and maritime terrorism, exchanging information in naval rescue and relief operations, as well as sharing operational and tactical experiences.

Russia's defense ministry stated that the exercises, running through Friday and involving warships and aviation, would focus on the protection of maritime economic activity.

The Russian defence ministry said its Pacific fleet, led by the Varyag guided missile cruiser and the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, had arrived at Iran’s Chabahar port on Monday to take part in the joint drill.

China’s defense ministry mentioned that the drills aimed at jointly maintaining regional maritime security. China sent its 45th escort task force, consisting of the guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and the comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu, to the exercise.

Last month, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, announced Tehran's plan to hold joint drills with Beijing and Moscow before the end of March, aimed at ensuring regional security.

Providing insights into the strategic maritime efforts, the rear admiral revealed that the mission to safeguard Iran's shipping lines in international waters commenced in 2009 under the direct command of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Emphasizing the unwavering commitment of the Army's strategic naval force, he highlighted their continuous role in ensuring the security of the nation's economic hub in both the Gulf of Aden and the northern Indian Ocean.

The admiral further highlighted the expansion of the security mission beyond securing shipping lines in the Red Sea over the past four years. Currently, the comprehensive management of protection for Iran's shipping lines extends from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal.

The Iranian Navy conducts routine exercises throughout the year. In recent years, Iranian military experts and technicians have made significant progress in developing and manufacturing a diverse range of military equipment, achieving self-sufficiency for the armed forces in the military industry.

In March 2023, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian naval forces staged the 2023 Marine Security Belt war game in the northern parts of the Indian Ocean, marking the fourth joint exercise in recent years. Alongside Chinese and Russian fleets, more than 10 Iranian Navy vessels and three helicopters reportedly took part.

 Courtesy Tehran Times

Iran grain production exceeds 21 million tons

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in a report said Iran has produced more than 21 million tons of grain in the 2023 Crop Year and holds the fourth largest grain reserves in Asia.

In its latest report on the “Outlook of Food Products and Situation”, FAO put the total volume of grain produced in Iran in 2023 at 21.1 million tons, showing a more than two percent hike compared to a year earlier.

According to this report, Iran produced over 13 million tons of wheat in 2022 and 13.5 million tons in 2023.

Rice production also reached 3.5 million tons in the current year, without any changes compared to the previous crop year.

FAO has put Iran's total cereal stocks at 12.1 million tons in the current year, registering a 100,000-ton increase compared to the previous year.

With this volume of stocks, Iran has ranked fourth in the world. China has been ranked number one with 399 million tons of cereal stocks. India with 64 million tons and Turkey with 12.7 million tons have taken the second and third places respectively.

Back in May 2023, FAO released a report in which Iran was ranked 43rd in the world in terms of food imports despite being the 17th most populous country in the world.

The UN entity’s statistics show that industrialized countries were the largest importers of food products in the world.

According to the organization, Iran currently stands among the world’s top producers of agricultural products.

 

Wednesday 28 February 2024

Iran oil sector annual growth doubles

Iranian oil sector has witnessed a twofold increase in its annual economic growth in autumn 2023, reports country’s Finance and Economic Affairs said.

Ehsan Khandouzi, who made the statement in a press conference, added the oil industry’s growth reached 21.8% in the season from 10.8 % registered in autumn 2022, the country has largely succeeded in overcoming sanctions.

The 13th administration has made great efforts to neutralize sanctions since it took office in August 2021, the official underlined, praising the incumbent government’s economic diplomacy and attention to foreign investment.

Last week, Iran’s Plan and Budget Organization (PBO) head, Davoud Manzour, said the country’s economic growth in autumn 2023 was reported at 5.1% including the oil sector’s growth and 2.5% without oil.

According to Khandouzi, Iran’s non-oil trade with 15 neighboring states during the 11 months of the current Iranian calendar year hit US$55 billion, 2.5% higher than the figure during the corresponding period in its preceding year.

Foreign investments made since the incumbent government took over have exceeded US$11 billion, adding the oil sector has attracted US$4.8 billion, the industrial sector US$3.8 billion, the services sector US$617 million, and the agricultural sector US$580 million.

 

Tuesday 27 February 2024

Iran demands nuclear disarmament of Israel

Iran has sounded the alarm bell over Israel’s possession of deadly nuclear weapons, saying the regime’s conduct shows its nuclear arsenal poses a threat to not only Palestinians but people across the world. 

“The international community must take this threat seriously and make a decisive decision to confront the unprecedented threat posed by this occupying, apartheid, and discriminatory regime to global peace. This occupying regime has become so emboldened by the support of the United States and some Western countries that it shamelessly threatens both the oppressed people of Gaza and the countries of the region with nuclear weapons,” warned Iran’s Foreign Minister while addressing a high-level disarmament conference at the United Nations Office in Geneva, Switzerland.

The Israeli cabinet has suggested the use of nuclear weapons against Palestinians in Gaza multiple times during the past months.

That’s while since October 07, the regime has carpet-bombed the entirety of Gaza, leveling at least 70% of the strip’s infrastructure and buildings.

Its deadly military campaign has also left behind a vast carnage of over 30,000 Palestinian civilians, with the rest of the population now grappling with famine and disease. 

“The world must acknowledge that nuclear weapons in the hands of such a regime constitute the most serious and urgent threat to humanity. It is necessary to dismantle all the nuclear arsenals of this regime and subject all its nuclear installations to the inspections and mechanisms of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Hossein Amir Abdollahian added. 

The top Iranian diplomat also criticized Washington’s untrammeled support for the regime, saying the US has been scuppering regional countries’ efforts aimed at making West Asia a nuclear-weapon-free zone. 

Israel is estimated to have at least 90 nuclear warheads, with fissile material stockpiles of over 200. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has never inspected any of the regime’s nuclear sites despite repeated calls from countries in West Asia.  

 

Wednesday 14 February 2024

Pakistan: Instability coming down the road

Pakistan’s elections held on February 08, were meant to bring stability to the country after almost two years of turmoil but the outcome of the polls has deepened political divisions. It will also bring more instability to a nuclear-armed, 240-million strong country already shaky at best in a critically important geostrategic region.

In the months leading up to the long-awaited elections, the judiciary and the military pursued a dual track strategy: ensure that the highly popular former prime minister, Imran Khan, is never able to run for political office again and reinvigorate the political fortunes of Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).

Following his loss of power in a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, Khan was relentlessly pursued by the judiciary which eventually handed him three sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets and an illegal marriage, for a total of 24 years. He was barred from politics and sent to gaol. His Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) was disbanded, its electoral symbol (the cricket bat) outlawed, and its members banned from running as PTI members.

Nawaz Sharif—a convicted corrupt politician who’s had an ambivalent relationship with the army for 40 years, was brought back from a four-year self-exile in London as an alternative to Khan. Soon after Nawaz’s return to Pakistan the corruption charges he faced were dropped and his life ban from politics was lifted.

The path was now clear for his smooth return to power. However, what was meant to be a walk in the park for Nawaz and the PML(N) turned out very differently on election day. The millions of pro-Imran Khan supporters were not interested in singing off the score sheet handed over to them.

Even with all the measures taken to ensure there was no level playing field, and the ballot stuffing at a number of polling stations, the PML(N), was only able to win the second largest number of seats (75).

The former PTI members—running as independents—won the largest number of seats, 93 of the 266 up for grabs. The independents’ total seats could increase as they are contesting the result of over a dozen others they claim have been stolen from them. Nevertheless, Nawaz declared victory, and will try—with great difficulty, to form a coalition government with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto. The only bond between the PML(N) and the PPP is that their hatred of each other is slightly less than their hatred of the PTI.

International reaction to these elections, including from the US, the UK and the EU, was negative, with several countries calling for investigations into the allegations of vote-tempering and pre-poll obstructions. The Australian government also made it clear that that it was concerned that ‘the Pakistani people were restricted in their choice, since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections’.

Notwithstanding the evidence to the contrary, much of it posted on social media platforms even though mobile internet connections were restricted, the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, commended the Electoral Commission for running such a successful election and stressed the significance of free and unhindered participation by Pakistani people in exercising their right to vote.

Similarly, the caretaker prime minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, believed that the ‘nation had accepted the results’ and the country needed to move on. Moreover, he brushed aside international criticism of the elections as ‘not that big a deal’.

Despite the compromised nature of these polls, a PML(N)-led coalition government is the most likely—but not certain—outcome of the elections. According to the latest reports, it would be led by Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother who was prime minister after Khan was ousted in April 2022.

The real power will still be held behind the scenes by Nawaz Sharif. Given the fragility of the coalition, which will include smaller parties and non-PTI-leaning independents, this will be a weak government with little legitimacy. This is unfortunate given that whoever is prime minister will have to make some particularly difficult decisions on the economy, handle adroitly the country’s foreign relations, and manage a growing terrorist threat.

Pakistan is an economic mess, with 40% of the population living under the poverty line, an inflation rate that has hit 30%, a rupee whose value has halved in 10 years, and barely enough foreign exchange to cover the cost of imports for a month or so.

The country avoided economic meltdown in August 2023 by securing a standby arrangement of US$3 billion with the IMF. However, this bailout runs out in March and a new one—the 24th in Pakistan’s history—will need to be negotiated.

The IMF will undoubtedly demand that the government implement more austerity measures, including continuing to reduce subsidies on essential commodities. Imposing draconian economic measures on an already struggling population will not be easy, particularly given Nawaz’s lack of popular support. We can expect serious social unrest down the road.

A Shehbaz-led government will also have to deal with the growing terrorist threat, mainly but not solely from the Afghanistan-based Pakistan Taliban (TTP), which has continued to increase since the Taliban took over in neighbouring Afghanistan in August 2021. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that the Taliban government of Afghanistan cease to support the TTP. But the Taliban isn’t about to turn on the TTP, an organisation with which it has deep ideological, operational, historical and tribal links. Kabul also knows that the Pakistani military doesn’t want to escalate this issue by pursuing the TTP unto Afghan territory. Moreover, given Pakistan’s poor fiscal position, it cannot afford another expensive military operation. Accordingly, Pakistan-Afghan relations will probably continue to be frozen, and the scourge of terrorism to fester.

This will not be well received by the leaders in Beijing who persistently press Pakistan to do more against the terrorists roaming the countryside regularly killing Chinese workers and officials working on the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Pakistan already has some 10,000 security personnel dedicated solely to the protection of Chinese interests in Pakistan. Still, relations with China will continue on an even keel or even deepen. It was after all under Nawaz’s third stint (2013-2018), that CPEC started.

Pakistanis can expect Indo-Pakistan relations to possibly improve. The personal dynamics between Nawaz and Indian PM Narendra Modi have been good in the past. Nawaz attended Modi’s 2014 inauguration and Modi visited Nawaz in Lahore in December 2015—the first visit by an Indian leader in more than a decade. But while Nawaz would probably be interested in improving relations with Delhi, it was the perception that he was warming up too much to the Indians when he was in power which critically contributed to the military orchestrating his downfall in 2017. Shehbaz, under the guidance of Nawaz, is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Despite Washington’s public criticism of Pakistan’s seriously flawed election, the Biden administration is committed to ‘strengthening its security cooperation’ with Islamabad regardless as to who eventually becomes prime minister. Pakistan continues to be a valuable regional partner, being in a unique position to monitor developments in Afghanistan.

Finally, whilst Washington may have had issues with the election process, it will absolutely not miss Imran Khan, who repeatedly accused the US of having been instrumental, with the help of Pakistan’s military, in his downfall in April 2022.

US Secretary of State meeting with General Asim Munir—the man who effectively runs Pakistan, in Washington only a few weeks before the elections only reinforced this common perception in Pakistan. However, given Munir’s massive miscalculation on the elections, his days may well be numbered.

How long the next prime minister will last in office is anyone’s guess, but given that no prime minister has ever completed their term in Pakistan’s 75-year history, it is suspect the odds are poor that Shehbaz Sharif will break that tradition.

Courtesy: The Strategist

 

Monday 12 February 2024

Iranian Revolution Celebrations in Jeddah

A ceremony marking the 45th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution of Iran was held at the Iranian consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. 

The gathering was attended by Mazen bin Hamli, Director General of the Office of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Jeddah, a large group of consuls stationed in Jeddah, representatives of various countries at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, as well as traders, economic activists, and media personnel.

Hassan Zarnegar Abarghouei, Consul General of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Jeddah, delivered a speech, thanking the guests for joining Iranians in celebrating a big day in their country’s history.  

In his speech, he referred to the scientific and technological achievements and economic, tourism, and scientific capacities of Iran, emphasizing the necessity of developing relations between Tehran and Riyadh and the readiness of traders and merchants from both countries to expand cooperation.

He further emphasized the need for unity among Islamic countries to end the crimes of the Zionist regime against the besieged Palestinian people in Gaza. 

The Iranian Consulate in Saudi Arabia’s port city of Jeddah was officially reopened in June of last year. The two countries had severed their ties in January 2016 after the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia, prompted angry protests in front of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and the kingdom's Consulate in the holy city of Mashhad.

China successfully mediated high-stakes talks between Tehran and Riyadh in March of last year, which led to the conclusion of a deal between the two sides that foresaw the resumption of their ties.

 

Wednesday 7 February 2024

US targets Iran-backed militia official in Iraq

The US said Wednesday it killed a senior commander in Iraq with the Iranian-backed militia group Kata’ib Hezbollah who was involved in planning attacks on American troops.

The commander was killed during a strike that took place around 9:30 pm local time, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM).

“The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people,” CENTCOM said in a statement. “We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten our forces’ safety.”

CENTCOM said there were no civilian casualties or collateral damage from the strike.

The strike hit a car in a busy section of eastern Baghdad, killing the commander and two other Kataib Hezbollah officials, according to The Associated Press.

Pro-Iranian statements on Telegram and on state-run media channels named the slain commander as Abu Bakr al-Saadi, a high-ranking Kata'ib Hezbollah official.

The strike is the latest US military action against Iranian-backed militia groups, and the first attack in Iraq since Washington hit more than 85 targets last week across Iraq and Syria in response to attacks that killed three American troops in Jordan in late January, which the Biden administration said was carried out by Iranian proxies.

Last week’s strikes, conducted by B-1 bomber planes, targeted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iranian-backed militia groups. While the US action was meant to deter more aggression, the Iranian proxies have continued attacking American and allied bases in the region. 

The US officially blamed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq for the deadly attack in Jordan. But the Pentagon also suggested Kata'ib Hezbollah may have been behind the attack, with deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh saying the attack had the footprints of the militia group.

After the Jordan attack, Kata'ib Hezbollah said it was suspending military operations against American forces in Iraq, to avoid embarrassment to the Iraqi government.

The US has continued to carry out strikes in Iraq despite repeated condemnation from the Iraqi government, which is engaged in ongoing talks with Washington on the future of the American military presence in the country.

 

Saturday 3 February 2024

We don’t know’ if Iran was involved in Jordan drone attack, says Austin

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday admitted the US does not know if Iran was operationally involved in the drone attack in Jordan that killed three American soldiers. On the same day, US officials told CBS News that plans have been approved for strikes against Iranian personnel and facilities in Iraq and Syria.

When asked by a reporter how much Iran knew about the Jordan drone attack or if it was operationally involved, Austin said, “You know, we believe that this was done by an element of what is known as the Axis of Resistance, and these are Iranian proxy groups. And how much Iran knew or didn’t know, we — we don’t know, but it really doesn’t matter because Iran sponsors these groups.”

The US has said it believes the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iraqi militias, was responsible for the attack.

Kataib Hezbollah announced Tuesday it was suspending attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria, which was the result of pressure from the Iraqi government and Iran, making it clear Tehran does not seek more escalations in the region.

On Thursday, Reuters reported that Iran was reducing its presence in Syria after Israeli airstrikes on Damascus killed five members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) on January 20. In December, Israel killed a senior IRGC officer who was based in Syria.

However, sources told Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen that it was not true that Iran scaled back its deployment of IRGC officers in Syria. But the sources indicated Iran was taking some steps for protection, with one saying that Iranian advisors have been asked to remain in Syria, but without their families.

Iran has vowed it would respond to any US attacks, whether they’re inside Iran or against Iranians elsewhere in the region. The US officials speaking to CBS said the plans to strike Iranians would be carried out over a number of days.

Austin told reporters that the US was planning a “multitiered response” but did not publicly say what the targets will be. We have the ability to respond a number of times depending on what the situation is, he said.

 

Friday 2 February 2024

US attacks targets in Iraq and Syria

Ever since we started posting these blogs in 2012, it has been highlighted that the United States initiates proxy wars, mainly to sell its arms. After the commencement of killing of Gazans by Israel, also supported by the Biden administration, the US hegemony in the Middle East seems to be ending, but the super power remains adamant at keeping its military complexes operating at full capacities.

It was anticipated that sooner than later the US, in the name of retaliations, would start attacking sites in Iraq and Syria, alleging that these belong to Iran-supported militants.

On February 01, we had posted a blog titled, “Are United States and Iran already at war?” Today, Reuters has reported that the US military launched airstrikes on Friday in Iraq and Syria against more than 85 targets, spanning seven locations, four in Syria and three in Iraq, in retaliation for last weekend's attack in Jordan that killed three US troops.

The strikes targeted the Quds Force - the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of the IRGC that heavily influences its allied militia across the Middle East, from Lebanon to Iraq and Yemen to Syria.

US Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the director of the Joint Staff, said the attacks appeared to be successful, triggering large secondary explosions as the bombs hit militant weaponry, though it was not clear if any militants were killed.

The strikes, which included the use of long-range B-1 bombers flown from the US, are the first in a multi-tiered response by President Joe Biden's administration, and more US military operations are expected in the coming days.

While the US strikes did not target sites inside Iran, they signal a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East from Israel's more than three-month-old war with Hamas in Gaza.

The US military said in a statement that the strikes hit targets including command and control centers, rockets, missiles and drone storage facilities, as well as logistics and munition supply chain facilities.

Syrian state media said on Friday that an American aggression on sites in its desert areas and at the Syrian-Iraqi border resulted in a number of casualties and injuries.

The Iraqi military said the strikes were in the Iraqi border area and warned they could ignite instability in the region.

"These airstrikes constitute a violation of Iraqi sovereignty, undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government, and pose a threat that could lead Iraq and the region into dire consequences," Iraqi military spokesman Yahya Rasool said in a statement.

The United States has assessed that the drone that killed the three soldiers and wounded more than 40 other people was made by Iran.

"Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing," Biden said in a statement. Earlier on Friday, Biden and Pentagon leaders had attended the Dover Air Force Base in Delaware as the remains of the three soldiers were returned.

Pentagon said it does not want war with Iran and does not believe Tehran wants war either, even as Republican pressure has increased on Biden to deal a blow directly.

The top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Roger Wicker, criticized Biden for failing to impose a high enough cost on Iran, and taking too long to respond.

Before the retaliatory strikes on Friday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that Iran would not start a war but would respond strongly to anyone who tried to bully it.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the Biden administration had not communicated with Iran since the Jordan attack.

Baghdad and Washington, meanwhile, have agreed to set up a committee to start talks on the future of the US-led military coalition in Iraq, with the aim of setting a timetable for a phased withdrawal of troops and the end of the US-led coalition against Islamic State.

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday 1 February 2024

Are United States and Iran already at war?

More than 160 attacks on the US troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, 37 clashes in the Red Sea with the Houthis, and now five dead US service members — America’s mounting proxy battle with Iran over the past three months is spurring questions about whether the countries are at war. 

It’s also raising questions about whether the US can continue to hit back at Iranian-backed militia groups without seeking congressional authorization. 

The Biden administration argues it has successfully contained the Israeli war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas to Gaza, and that there is not a wider conflict. But the sheer number of attacks on US forces points to tensions spinning out of control. 

It is already a larger conflict. It’s a question of degrees, Robert Murrett, a retired Navy vice admiral, said. But the fighting is not out of control yet, according to Murrett. 

“Calling it a war is probably overstating things,” Murrett, now a professor at Syracuse University, said. “But the tensions, the hostilities that exist between Iran and the US are at the highest level they’ve been for some time.” 

The tit-for-tat battles reached a boiling point after a Sunday attack in Jordan, which the US has said likely came from an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah. A suicide drone exploded in a housing unit at the Tower 22 base near Iraq and Syria, killing three Army soldiers.

The US also lost two sailors during a covert mission off the coast of Somalia to intercept Iranian missiles bound for the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. While the mission was a success, two sailors died after falling into the rough waters. 

 

The deaths sparked mourning across the US and calls for more action, particularly among Republicans, some of whom urged Biden to strike back inside Iran.

Washington is already deploying significant resources to defend ships in the Red Sea from the Houthis and carry out airstrikes in Yemen and Iraq, none of which have deterred the militia groups from attacking. 

Courtesy: The Hill

 

 

Monday 29 January 2024

Iran denies involvement in killing of US troops

Iran’s mission to the United Nations has noted that Tehran is not embroiled in last night’s drone attacks on the US troops stationed in Jordan.

In a statement on the late Sunday, it said that this matter is not tied to Iran but a kind of conflict between US forces and resistance groups.  

The statement comes in the wake of drone attacks on a US base on the border of Jordan and Syria that left three American forces killed and at least 34 wounded.

It went on to add that there is no link in the attack, underling that the incident was part of the conflict between the army of the United States of America and resistance groups in the region, which reciprocate retaliatory attacks.”

The US President Joe Biden purportedly said that Iranian-backed groups are culprits of the attack.

The escalation of menacing rhetoric started a day after the incident among certain world countries and anti-Iran media outlets, alleging that Iran has provided weaponry to its so-called proxies in Iraq and Yemen. Such a spurious claim was vehemently dismissed by Iranian officials.   

The attack marks the first time that US military personnel were killed since the onset of the Israeli onslaught on Gaza on October 7.

Biden, in his statement, pointed out that all kinds of efforts are underway to garner information about the culprits and then bring them to justice.    

“Have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he said.

Based on a statement issued by the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM or CENTCOM), it was stated that there is a possibility that the number of those injured in the attack would increase.  

Eight personnel were evacuated from Jordan for higher-level care, but are in stable condition.

The US president vowed revenge for those involved in the attacks, saying, “These service members embodied the very best of our nation: Unwavering in their bravery. Unflinching in their duty. Unbending in their commitment to our country — risking their own safety for the safety of their fellow Americans, and our allies and partners with whom we stand in the fight against terrorism. …  have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani reacted to the attacks on Monday, saying, “As we have clearly stated before, the resistance groups in the region are responding to the war crimes and genocide of the child-killing Zionist regime and… they do not take orders from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

The spokesman ruled out the baseless accusations against Iran, describing them as a blame game and a plot by those who try to protect their own interests and cover up their problems by dragging the US into a new conflict in the region and provoking it to intensify the crisis.

He went on to add, “These groups decide and act based on their own principles and priorities as well as the interests of their country and people.”

Kanaani also averred that the allegations of Iran’s involvement are popped up by certain countries having political machinations to distort the realities and are under the direct influence of the child-killing Zionist regime

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibly for the attacks on three bases, including one on the Jordan-Syria border.

Since the start of Israel’s onslaught on the Gaza Strip on October 7, there have been around 160 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Most of those have been claimed by regional resistance forces.

Iranian officials have frequently said resistance groups act on their own in response to Israeli crimes in Gaza.

 

US attack on Iran could prove a fatal mistake

The killing of three United States troops and wounding of dozens more on Sunday is piling political pressure on President Joe Biden to deal a blow directly against Iran, a move he's been reluctant to do out of fear of igniting a broader war.

However many in the United States believe that direct attack on Iran or its bases in the neighboring countries could prove a big mistake

"As we see now, it is spiraling out of control. It's beginning to emerge as a regional war, and unfortunately the United States and our troops are in harms way," Democratic Representative Barbara Lee said, renewing calls for a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian war.

Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, who served four tours in Iraq as a Marine, urged against Republican calls for war, saying "deterrence is hard; war is worse.”

"To the chicken hawks calling for war with Iran, you're playing into the enemy's hands—and I’d like to see you send your sons and daughters to fight," Moulton said. "We must have an effective, strategic response on our terms and our timeline."

Experts caution that any strikes against Iranian forces inside Iran could force Tehran to respond forcefully, escalating the situation in a way that could drag the United States into a major Middle East war.

Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security, said striking directly inside Iran would raise questions for Tehran about regime survival.

"When you do things overtly you represent a major escalation for the Iranians," Lord said.

Charles Lister of the Washington-based Middle East Institute said a likely response would be to go after a significant target or high-value militant from Iran-backed groups in Iraq or Syria.

"What happened this morning was on a totally different level than anything these proxies have done in the past two to three months... (but) despite all of the calls to do something in Iran, I don't see this administration taking that bait," Lister said.

"Unless the US is prepared for an all out war, what does attacking Iran get us," the official said.

Israel had hit Iranian targets in Syria for years, without dissuading Iran, including four Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officials in Damascus.

The United States has also struck Iranian-linked targets outside of Iran in recent months.  

But Lister said the US had gone after Iranians outside of Iran in the past, like the 2020 strike against top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, and only yielded a response during a limited period of time.

"So to an extent, if you go hard enough and high enough, we have a track record of showing that Iran can blink first," Lister said.

According to a Reuter report, Biden's response options could range anywhere from targeting Iranian forces outside to even inside Iran, or opting for a more cautious retaliatory attack solely against the militants responsible.

The US forces in the Middle East have been attacked more than 150 times in Iraq, Syria, Jordan and off the coast of Yemen since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October.

But until Sunday's attack on a remote outpost known as Tower 22 near Jordan's northeastern border with Syria, the strikes had not killed the US troops nor wounded so many. That allowed Biden the political space to mete out US retaliation, inflicting costs on militants without risking a direct war with Tehran.

Republicans accused Biden of letting American forces become sitting ducks, waiting for the day when a drone or missile would evade base defenses. They say that day came on Sunday, when a single one-way attack drone struck near base barracks early in the morning.

"He left our troops as sitting ducks," said Republican US Senator Tom Cotton. "The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran's terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East."

The Republican who leads the US military oversight committee in the House of Representatives, Representative Mike Rogers, also called for action against Tehran.

"It's long past time for President Biden to finally hold the terrorist Iranian regime and their extremist proxies accountable for the attacks they've carried out," Rogers said.

Former President Donald Trump portrayed the attack as a consequence of Joe Biden's weakness and surrender.

One Democrat openly voiced concern that Biden's strategy of containing the Israel-Hamas conflict to Gaza was failing.

 

 

 

Friday 26 January 2024

Next Iranian Supreme Leader, Israeli Perspective

According to The Jerusalem Post, from 1997-2005 and again from 2013-2021, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei experimented with Iranian presidents who were reformists and pragmatists, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani respectively.

Although Rouhani was still in power in 2020, by that time the United States had pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which was a signature policy of Rouhani and Khamenei had already decided to cut anyone other than hardliners out of future power.

For the 2020 Iranian parliamentary elections, Khamenei not only disqualified reformists, the closest Iran has to a group that believes in some Western values, who had been disqualified from running for years.

He started to also disqualify pragmatists, whose bedrock values were as anti-Western as Khamenei’s hardliners, but who believed that trying to reach deals with the West to improve relations was a tactical imperative.

This continued in the 2021 presidential election of hardliner and Khamenei favorite, Ebrahim Raisi, with the shocking disqualifications of top Iranian officials First Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri and former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani from running for office.

These moves and the banning of hundreds of other candidates, by Khamenei, or technically by his Guardian Council, which does his bidding in banning undesirable candidates from running, brought voter turnout down to record lows.

While some areas still reached 40% or more in voter turnout, some areas had single digit voter turnout, as compared to 70% voter turnout in 2017.

At a collective level, whereas Raisi lost the 2017 election to Rouhani (back when Khamenei was still allowing partially free elections) by around 23.6 million to around 15.8 million, Raisi’s victory in 2021 saw him only rise to 18 million.

In other words, had all the voters who voted in 2017 voted again, Raisi still would probably have lost by a couple of million votes.

He only won because he had no real opposition and an artificial coerced drop in voter turnout.

Many reformists and pragmatists have been critical of Iran’s role in Syria’s civil war during the 2010s and other adventurous violent moves, such as the recent missile attacks on adversaries in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan.

If the pragmatists had remained in power, there probably would have been a renewed nuclear deal JCPOA 2.0 in mid-2021, given that the US and Iranian pragmatist negotiators had agreed on around 90% of the terms.

Israel would not have liked America relieving sanctions pressure from Tehran, but the fact is that once China and Russia made the strategic decision to ignore sanctions, mere sanctions from the United States and the European Union were going to be insufficient to force the Islamic Republic to change its terrorist proxies and nuclear behavior.

Under Raisi’s hardliners, this has meant a constant push for enriching record levels of uranium to get to the nuclear threshold for not only one nuclear weapon but potentially for an arsenal.