Iranian satellite launch

Despite disagreements with Israel about strategy, the United States is worried about Iran getting nuclear weapons. Analysts believe the US should be more concerned about the Islamic Republic making nuclear missiles with a range that could hit the US rather than these missiles reaching Israel.

If during the current nuclear negotiations Iran carries out an expected satellite launch – which may have dual technology eventually applicable to launching an intercontinental ballistic missile – it will be directly aimed at inflaming this US fear in order to pummel Washington into new concessions and submission.

If Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes the political decision to go for a nuclear weapon, he could have sufficient weaponized uranium within three weeks.

Since the mid-1990s, Iran has had ballistic missiles with a range that could hit Israel, once it masters some additional detonation and delivery issues that would still take some undefined amount of time, Jerusalem might be under threat.

In contrast, the US is nowhere near the range of the ballistic missiles that Khamenei has at his disposal. Iran would need to develop ICBMs in order to put the US in range – something that could take an estimated three years, according to multiple experts.

That is also a different set of skills and processes beyond what Iran would need to fire a potential short- or medium-range nuclear weapon.

Dating back to negotiations in 2019, the offer the Iranians had made to the US was essentially, “Cut a deal with us now, before we develop an ICBM that could also hit you.”

True, the US is worried about the 90% uranium enrichment red line as is Israel, but putting the US in range is the real red line.

If Iran had nuclear weapons but could “only” hit Israel, it would be one of several major security issues in regions far from the US borders. It would not actually physically threaten the US.

Launching a satellite at this sensitive stage of the Vienna talks, when both sides are playing chicken and trying to get the other side to blink, would be Khamenei playing a potential trump card against America’s soft underbelly.

And the threat may feel more credible given that Tehran is closer to the 90% uranium enrichment line than it has ever been.

However, based on the Biden administration’s policy to date, this gambit probably would not work.

US President Joe Biden is ready for a mutual return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal even if it upsets Israel, and even with some minor changes favoring Iran.

But politically, he has already looked weak in his handling of Afghanistan, Ukraine and other global crises and he cannot afford to cut a long-term deal with Khamenei that is worse than the nuclear deal. He would jump at cutting a “less for less” partial sanctions-lifting for a partial return to a nuclear-limits deal, but Tehran has so far been cool to this idea.

Because of that posture, another Iranian satellite launch will definitely alarm the US, but will probably not be a game-changer in negotiations.

In the meantime, the Islamic Republic will have continued to make progress on multiple tracks of skills it needs to perfect for nuclear weapons. And the jury will still be out on who will make the first concession in the nuclear standoff – or whether the situation will escalate into greater confrontation.

Amendment introduced in US Defense Budget Bill to suspend sale of arms to Israel

In United States, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has introduced an amendment to the US Defense Budget Bill which would suspend the transfer of US$735 million worth of Boeing Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) to Israel. JDAMs are kits that convert unguided bombs into precision-guided munitions.

The amendment was introduced alongside six others, including one to block arms sales to the Saudi Arabia, allegedly involved in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and an amendment concerning the US relationship with Colombia.

Ocasio-Cortez’s office announced that the amendment concerning the sale of weapons to Israel was meant to block the transfer of the same kind of Boeing weaponry that the Israeli government used to kill 44 Palestinians in one night in al-Rimal, an Israeli airstrike on Hamas, led to a building collapse killing 44 Gazans.

Israeli Ambassador to the United States and the United Nations, Gilad Erdan criticized Ocasio-Cortez for her new amendment, stating he would expect a Congressperson to understand that Israel is defending its citizens against Hamas.

“Your amendment further legitimizes their heinous attacks against innocent civilians, as well as antisemitic lies,” Erdan wrote on Twitter. “Israel is a world leader in the fight against terrorism, and our partnership has helped prevent terrorist attacks against American citizens,” the ambassador added.

Biden administration approved the sale of US$725 million in JDAMs to Israel in May as Israel and Gaza fought in Operation Guardian of the Walls, according to The Washington Post. Congress was officially notified about the sale about a week before the fighting broke out.

During the fighting, US President Joe Biden expressed support for Israel, saying “my expectation and hope is this will be closing down sooner than later, but Israel has a right to defend itself.”

The congresswoman, along with a number of other House Democrats, including Rashida Tlaib, introduced a similar resolution shortly afterward.

“For decades, the US has sold billions of dollars in weaponry to Israel without ever requiring them to respect basic Palestinian rights. In so doing, we have directly contributed to the death, displacement and disenfranchisement of millions,” said Ocasio-Cortez in a statement in May. “At a time when so many, including President Biden, support a ceasefire, we should not be sending ‘direct attack’ weaponry to the then Prime Minister Netanyahu to prolong this violence.”

The resolution in May was endorsed by over 70 organizations, including IfNotNow, Jewish Voice for Peace Action, and Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR).