PSX remains under pressure

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced volatility early in the week but gained momentum with the benchmark index closing at 114,398 points on Friday, March 07, 2025, posting a gain of 1.01%WoW.

Inflation for February 2025, clocked in at 1.52%YoY, the lowest in 9 years, sparking investor optimism and fueling expectations of a potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for March 10, 2025.

Alongside reports about the government's efforts to eliminate circular debt in the power sector by borrowing PKR1.25 trillion from commercial banks at an interest rate of 10.8%.

The rally in Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Cement and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors was recorded.

Trade deficit for February clocked in at US$2.3 billion, up 33%YoY, due to 10%YoY increase in imports to US$4.7 billion.

OMC offtake was recorded at 1.136 million tons, up 2%YoY.

Market participation decreased due to Ramadan, with the average daily traded volume recorded at 290.33 million share as against 474.90 million shares in the earlier week, down 38.9%WoW.

PKR largely remained flat against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) IMF may allow cut in FBR target below PkR12.5 trillion, 2) Cement dispatches post double-digit growth for second consecutive month, 3) FBR proposes reduction in tax rates for Beverages, tobacco and real estate sector, and 4) Public debt rose to PKR72.1 trillion.

Glass & Ceramics, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Chemical and Mutual Funds were amongst the top performing sectors, while Leasing Companies, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos, Transport, Sugar & Allied Products and Automobile Assembler were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$6.18 million. Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.22 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: GHGL, TGL, FCCL, SNGP, and PSO, while laggards included: MEHT, PGLC, ENGROH, JDWS, and MUREB.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to maintain its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain a key focus. Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of Fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of Banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

United States destroying world order

Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former armed forces chief and current ambassador to Britain, said on Thursday that the United States was destroying the current world order, reports Reuters,

The popular general, who led Ukraine's defence in the first two years of Moscow's full-scale invasion, spoke as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sought to mend fences with Washington after a fiery White House row with President Donald Trump.

Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine had held onto its independence despite "animus and threats coming even from friends".

His sharp remarks, made at London's Chatham House think tank, came after Trump froze military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in moves to push Zelenskiy into peace talks with Russia, while refusing to offer Kyiv security guarantees.

"It's obvious the White House has questioned the unity of the whole Western world," Zaluzhnyi said, "Because we see that it's not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order."

European leaders on Thursday said they would stand by Ukraine - and boost defence spending - to enable them to stand up to Russia. But the US has been a key backer, and its intelligence, equipment and financial support have been crucial for Kyiv.

Zaluzhnyi is broadly popular in Ukraine and is seen as a potential challenger to Zelenskiy when Ukraine holds elections, although he has voiced no clear ambitions to run for office.

Elections are currently prohibited by the declaration of martial law after Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Zelenskiy replaced Zaluzhnyi as army chief last year following battlefield setbacks. Russian forces now hold about 20% of Ukraine and have been gradually advancing in the country's east.

Zaluzhnyi added that Ukraine should receive security guarantees and "should avoid the role of bargaining chip in any negotiations".

 

US mulls plan to disrupt Iranian oil movement

President Donald Trump's administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under an international accord aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Trump has vowed to restore a "maximum pressure" campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and drive its oil exports to zero, in order to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Trump hit Iran with two waves of fresh sanctions in the first weeks of his second-term, targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers that sail without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries.

Those moves have largely been in line with the limited measures implemented during former President Joe Biden's administration, during which Iran succeeded in ramping up oil exports through complex smuggling networks.

Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes.

Previous attempts to seize Iranian oil cargoes have triggered retaliation by Iran.

The US tried to interdict at least two cargoes of Iranian oil in 2023, under Biden. This prompted Iran to seize foreign ships - including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which sent crude prices higher.

The current low oil price environment gives Trump more options to block Iranian oil flows, from sanctions on tanker companies to seizing ships, according to Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems at the University of Texas.

"I think if prices stay below US$75 a barrel, the White House has more latitude to look at sanctions that would affect, you know, supply from Iran and other countries. It would be much harder to do this in a US$92 per barrel environment," Cahill said.

Aggressive US action could cut Iran exports by some 750,000 barrels per day in the short term, he said, but the longer the sanctions are in place, the less effective they are as Iran and buyers figure out ways around them.

A speedy resumption of oil exports from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region would help offset any fall in Iranian exports.

Reuters previously reported that the White House is piling pressure on Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to restart or face sanctions alongside Iran.

Despite US sanctions in recent years, Tehran's oil exports brought in US$53 billion in 2023 and US$54 billion a year earlier, largely in trades with China, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Iran relies on oil exports to China for vital revenue. Russia, which faces restrictions on oil exports and broader Western sanctions, is similarly focused on shipping oil to buyers in China and India.

Finland and other Nordic countries have warned in recent months of the dangers of ships sailing close to their shores and the environmental risks they pose to their shores in oil spills if there is an accident.

While European countries have spoken about inspections of ships transporting Russian oil suspected of not having valid insurance, little action has been taken and none mooted for vessels hauling Iranian oil.

 

US rejects alternate Gaza reconstruction plan

According to Saudi Gazette, the Trump administration has rejected a long-awaited plan for the reconstruction of Gaza endorsed by Arab leaders, saying the president stands by his own vision which includes expelling the territory’s Palestinian residents and transforming it into a “riviera” owned by the United States.

“The current proposal does not address the reality that Gaza is currently uninhabitable and residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance,” National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement Tuesday night.

“President Trump stands by his vision to rebuild Gaza free from Hamas. We look forward to further talks to bring peace and prosperity to the region.”

The postwar plan for the Gaza Strip, which was proposed by Egypt and calls for Hamas to cede power to an interim administration until a reformed Palestinian Authority (PA) can assume control, would allow its roughly 2 million Palestinians to remain, in contrast to Trump’s proposal.

Speaking in Cairo, PA President Mahmoud Abbas pledged that general elections will be held in the West Bank, Gaza and occupied East Jerusalem for the first time in nearly two decades “if circumstances are suitable.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu still refuses to say what he envisions for Gaza’s post-war future, except to say that he endorses Trump’s plan for “a different Gaza.” And he thinks neither the PA nor Hamas should govern Gaza.

The US$53 billion proposal by Arab nations calls for rebuilding Gaza by 2030. The first phase calls for starting the removal of unexploded ordnance and clearing more than 50 million tons of rubble left by Israel’s bombardment and military offensives.

CNN obtained a copy of the document, which lays out an ambitious plan to develop shopping malls, an international convention center and even an airport within five years. It also aims to attract tourists by building resorts and enhancing the enclave’s Mediterranean coast.

It also acknowledges the difficulties that could be faced in disarming militants in the Gaza Strip.

“It is something that can be dealt with, and even ended forever, only if its causes are removed through a clear horizon and a credible political process,” it says.

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday that the group’s arms were non-negotiable.

“The weapon of the resistance is a red line, and it is not negotiable,” he said. “We will not accept (any deal) to trade it for reconstruction or the entry of aid.”

Hamas has sent mixed signals about its future in Gaza in recent weeks. Analysts have said that while the group has shown that it is willing to discuss demilitarization as an end goal of a peace process, it is keen not to allow it to become a prerequisite of the process.

Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas official, said last month that the group will not disarm and may even grow after the war in Gaza.

Last week, Hamas official Husam Badran said that the group was willing to step aside from governing Gaza.

“Our only condition is for this to be an internal Palestinian matter – we will not allow any regional or international party to get involved,” he told Al Arabiya. “As long as there is national consensus, Hamas will not be involved in the governance.”

Israel has blocked the entry of food, fuel, medicine and other supplies to Gaza to pressure Hamas to accept the agreement and has warned of additional consequences, raising fears of a return to fighting.

The suspension of aid drew widespread criticism, with human rights groups saying that it violated Israel’s obligations as an occupying power under international law.

Speaking at the summit announcing the plan for Gaza’s future, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said there would be no “true peace” without the establishment of the Palestinian state.

Israel has vowed to maintain open-ended security control over both Gaza and the West Bank, which it captured in the 1967 Mideast war and which Palestinians want for their future state. Israel’s government and most of its political class are opposed to Palestinian statehood.

 

Israel: Eyal Zamir new IDF Chief

According to media reports, Eyal Zamir replaced Herzi Halevi as IDF chief of staff on Wednesday, also being promoted to lieutenant general, in the ceremony led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and in the presence of all of the leaders of the defense establishment.

Along with the entire IDF high command, Mossad Director David Barnea and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar were also in attendance, as was CENTCOM chief Michael Kurilla.

Netanyahu opened the speech thanking Kurilla, saying, “Your relationship with General Herzi Halevi was a tangible asset to our national security.”

“Until a few generations ago, we were pushed from place to place like straw in the wind,” but we returned our control of our fate, and “our history is [framed as] before the establishment of the IDF and after it. This doesn’t mean our enemies can’t attack us. We saw this on October 07, 2023 but unlike before we can” take the war to them, said the prime minister.

Netanyahu promised Israel would return all of the hostages and end Hamas’s military and political rule.

Next, he said that although Zamir had lost the race for IDF chief twice, that the third time was a charm and “the time of Zamir.”

He said that he had been very impressed by Zamir’s capabilities as his military secretary, in particular his ability to coordinate between the defense and political echelons.

The prime minister also complimented Zamir in his work at the defense ministry in helping Israel to become more independent in producing more of its own weaponry.

 

Lebanon controlled by “Eisenhower Doctrine”

The pretexts that imperialist colonial powers follow to expand their influence vary. What is happening at Beirut airport in Lebanon is nothing new. It is obvious that the US is trying to ensure its control over Lebanon’s vital facilities and airports.

It is evident that the recent expansion work undertaken by the US in Lebanon is aimed at encircling the resistance, or at the very least, exerting pressure on the Lebanese authorities to incite them against the resistance under the pretext of avoiding severe brutal sanctions.

Preventing Iranian flights from landing at Beirut airport seems to be a part of US President Donald Trump’s plan to control the world, sometimes by proposing plans to displace Palestinians and other times by occupying countries.

Washington considers controlling the northern part of the West Asia region, in addition to the southern part, especially the Persian Gulf countries, a fundamental issue in light of the conflict with competing powers, as was the case decades ago when the Soviet Union existed.

The “Eisenhower Doctrine” was implemented in the 1950s, during the era of President Camille Chamoun, when the US naval forces landed on the shores of Beirut. Their interest was focused on Beirut airport because ensuring influence lies in tightening the noose around strategic outlets such as public facilities and airports.

This is exactly what is happening today, as the US embassy in Beirut is only functioning as a military base that insults the sovereignty and prestige of the Lebanese state whenever it wants.

Since Beirut air base is the only international airport in Lebanon, it has sought to reactivate some airports, such as Rayak air base, which currently witnesses a suspicious American and British military presence, given its strategic location in the heart of the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.

In 2011, Rayak air base was officially opened as a military air base for the Lebanese army. Before opening, the airport underwent expansion work funded and supervised directly by the US embassy.

Recently, it underwent additional expansion work as large capacity hangars were added to it. It was equipped with modern radars and surveillance devices.

It is worth noting that the Lebanese army used Rayak air base during its battles with Jolani’s terrorist groups during the Liberation of the Bekaa Outskirts Battle in 2015, which culminated in late August 2017 with the total elimination of all terrorists in the eastern chain of Lebanon and its liberation.

The US embassy also controls Qlayaat air base on the northern coast of Lebanon as a logistical base linking them to US bases in Cyprus, Greece, and the rest of West Asia. 

It is worth noting that Qlayaat air base is close to Syria and close to the Russian air and naval bases in Tartous and Latakia, which enhances its strategic importance for the Americans.

There is also effort to establish a facility at Qlayaat air base to facilitate the entry of weapons to support their anti-Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon. 

Lebanon’s airports are small in size but large in influence, just as Lebanon itself, which is small in size but great in influence.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Arabs reject forced Palestinian displacement

According to Saudi Gazette, the emergency Arab summit in Cairo has officially adopted Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan to rebuild the war-torn Gaza Strip, emphasizing the need for early recovery and comprehensive restoration efforts.

In its final statement, the summit announced the adoption of Egypt’s proposal, developed in coordination with Palestine and Arab nations, and based on studies by the World Bank and the United Nations Development Fund.

The plan is set to serve as a comprehensive Arab initiative to rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure and revive essential services.

The summit firmly rejected any forced displacement of Palestinians from their land, stating that such actions would constitute a crime under international law.

To reinforce this stance, an Arab legal committee has been assigned to examine whether the forced displacement of Palestinians can be classified as part of the crime of genocide.

Additionally, the statement condemned Israel’s recent decision to halt humanitarian aid to Gaza and close key border crossings used for relief efforts.

The summit labeled these actions as violations of the ceasefire agreement, international law, and international humanitarian law.

It also denounced Israel’s use of siege tactics and starvation of civilians as a means to achieve political objectives, calling for unimpeded humanitarian access to Gaza.