Pakistan hosts meeting of spymasters of regional countries

According to DAWN newspaper, Pakistan on Saturday hosted a meeting of spymasters of some countries in the region on the situation in Afghanistan. The meeting was attended by the intelligence heads from Russia, China, Iran and some Central Asian states.

The hosting of the meeting by Pakistan reflects its sincerity for peace in the region and Afghanistan.

It was the latest effort by Pakistan, which had over the past few days hosted meetings of the foreign ministers of the six neighboring countries of Afghanistan and that of their special envoys, to develop a common regional strategy on dealing with challenges emanating from the events unfolding in the war-ravaged country since the fall of Ghani regime.

Foreign ministers of Afghanistan's neighboring countries earlier in a meeting on Wednesday, “Agreed to remain seized of the developments in Afghanistan and coordinate with each other for a holistic, comprehensive and harmonized response,” according to a joint statement issued after their meeting.

The regional countries are worried about security situation along their borders with Afghanistan, terrorists using Afghan soil for launching attacks on other countries, spread of extremism, possibility of influx of refugees, drug trafficking and transnational crimes.

According to an Op-Ed, Russian Security Council’ Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned that tens of thousands of militants were harboring in Afghanistan’s provinces close to borders with Central Asian countries.

Also on Wednesday, CIA Chief William Burns during his visit to Pakistan met Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) Gen Qamar Bajwa and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director General Lt Gen Faiz Hamid. Burns had come to Pakistan to share US concerns about the new situation and see how Pakistan can be helpful in dealing with them.

Earlier on 4^th September, the ISI DG had travelled to Afghanistan where he reportedly held meetings with the new Taliban regime. According to sources, in his meetings in Kabul, besides, other issues had emphasized on the urgent need for dealing with the terrorist threat from groups including ISIS, Al-Qaeda, ETIM, TTP, BLA, and Jundullah to the neighbouring countries.

Islamabad had while welcoming the formation of caretaker government in Afghanistan by the Taliban hoped that “the new political dispensation will ensure coordinated efforts for peace, security and stability in Afghanistan”.

Afghan territory must not be allowed to become safe haven for terrorist

On 8th September 2021, Iran hosted a virtual summit of the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and China on Afghanistan. The next round will be held in Tehran in the near future," Iran's Ambassador and Permanent Representative to United Nations Majid Takht Ravanchi informed.

Ravanchi also pointed to the sufferings of the Afghan people, saying, "Afghanistan is passing through a critical juncture; hundreds of thousands of Afghans have fled their country; nearly 600,000 others have become internally displaced; essential food supplies are running short, and 18.4 million people need humanitarian assistance."

He added, "This situation is primarily the direct result of the intervention by the US and other foreign forces in Afghanistan and their irresponsible withdrawal. When they entered Afghanistan, they brought catastrophe for Afghans, and when they withdrew, they left calamity for Afghans."

"Iran stands ready to facilitate the transfer of humanitarian aids to Afghanistan through Iran’s sea ports, airports, railways, roads and border crossings," said Ravanchi.

Iran’s ambassador the UN added, "Afghanistan’s people must also be helped to achieve lasting peace, stability and prosperity. The full realization of this objective must be facilitated and strongly supported by the international community particularly the neighboring countries.

Ravanchi went on to say that Iran urges all Afghan leaders from different religious, linguistic, ethnic, and political backgrounds to place the interests of Afghan people above all things.

"Indeed, the path to stability, durable peace and sustainable development in Afghanistan passes through intra-Afghan talks with the active and equal participation of the true representatives of all ethnic, linguistic and religious groups aimed at finding a just, peaceful and durable solution to the crisis, achieving national reconciliation and establishing a truly inclusive, broad-based and fully representative government that is emerged from a free and fair elections including with the full participation of women both as voters and candidates and is committed to combat terrorism and organized crime as well as to guarantee and protect, based on true Islamic teachings and principles, the human rights of all Afghan people including ethnic, linguistic and religious minorities and women. We expect the Taliban to honor its commitments in this regard. Such a government will enjoy Iran’s support," he stated.

"Like Afghanistan’s other neighbors we are gravely concerned about insecurity and instability as well as threats of terrorist networks and organized criminals active in trafficking in drugs and persons," he added.

"We also strongly believe that Afghanistan’s territory must not be used, under any circumstances, to threaten or attack any country or to shelter or train terrorists, or to plan or to finance terrorist acts. Terrorist groups like Daesh that represent a grave threat to Afghanistan and the region must not be allowed to operate in that country."

Ravanchi also cited the services that Iran has provided for commercial ties between Afghanistan as a landlocked country and other countries through Chabahar Port and to Europe through the Khaf-Herat railway.

"Afghanistan needs to be supported to overcome its current economic difficulties. We have established the link from Afghanistan as a land-locked country to high seas through Iran’s Chabahar Port and to Europe through the Khaf-Herat railway."

Consensus on formation of government in Lebanon

Lebanese leaders have finally agreed to formation of a new government led by Sunni tycoon Najib Mikati, after a year of feuding over cabinet seats that has exacerbated a devastating economic collapse, opening the way to a resumption of talks with the IMF.

The breakthrough followed a flurry of contacts from France which has led efforts to get Lebanon’s fractious leaders to agree to a cabinet and begin reforms since last year’s catastrophic Beirut port explosion.

In televised comments, Mikati’s eyes welled up with tears and his voice broke as he described the hardship and emigration inflicted by the crisis, which has forced three quarters of the population into poverty.

The biggest threat to Lebanon’s stability since the 1975-90 civil war, the crisis hit a crunch point last month when fuel shortages brought much of the country to a standstill, triggering numerous security incidents, adding to Western concerns and warnings of worse to come unless something is done.

Mikati and President Michel Aoun, a Maronite Christian, signed a decree establishing the government in the presence of Nabih Berri, the Shia Speaker of Parliament.

Mikati said divisive politics must be set to one side and that he could not go for talks with the International Monetary Fund only to encounter opposition at home.

He pledged to seek support from Arab countries, a number of which have shunned Lebanon because of the extensive influence wielded in Beirut by Hezbollah.

Lebanon could no longer afford to subsidize goods such as imported fuel, he said, adding the country did not have the hard currency reserves for such support.

Addressing the daily hardships, he described how mothers had been forced to cut back on milk for their children. “If a mother’s eldest son leaves the country and she has tears in her eyes, she can’t buy a Panadol pill,” he said, referring to medicine shortages.

Mikati also said parliamentary elections scheduled for next Spring would go ahead on time.

Like the outgoing cabinet of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, the new one comprises ministers with technical expertise who are not prominent politicians but have been named by the main parties.

Youssef Khalil, a senior central bank official and aide to Governor Riad Salameh, has been named Finance Minister in the proposed new cabinet line-up.

Hezbollah, a political ally of Aoun, has named two of the 24 ministers.

Afghan economic collapse would benefit terrorists

UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres has warned that an Afghan economic collapse would occur if assets weren’t unfrozen, saying the collapse would be beneficial to terrorist groups in the area.

"We need to find ways to avoid a situation that would be catastrophic for the people and, in my opinion, a source of instability, and an action, gift for terrorist groups still operating there," Guterres said. 

After the Taliban came into power, Afghanistan was cut off from its US$10 billion assets abroad and US$440 million in emergency reserves it has with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"At the present moment the UN is not even able to pay its salaries to its own workers," Guterres said.

Guterres’s comments came after Deborah Lyons, UN Secretary General’s special representative for Afghanistan, told the Security Council there would be “a severe economic downturn” if the funds are not released.

"The economy must be allowed to breathe for a few more months, giving the Taliban a chance to demonstrate flexibility and a genuine will to do things differently this time, notably from a human rights, gender, and counter-terrorism perspective," Lyons said.

The funds have been held from the group to have leverage over the Taliban, but Lyons said safeguards can be put on the money to ensure it is used correctly.

Palestinian Authority slams Israel for opposing US consulate in Jerusalem

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has condemned Israel for opposing the reopening of the US Consulate in Jerusalem, which had previously served as a de facto diplomatic mission to the Palestinians. 

Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh urged the United States to fulfill its promises to the Palestinians and speed up the reopening of the consulate.

 “We think it’s a bad idea,” Foreign Minister Yair Lapid told reporters last week in response to the US plan to reopen the consulate. “Jerusalem is the sovereign capital of Israel and Israel alone, and therefore we don’t think it’s a good idea.”

The PA Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Israeli stance does not serve the peace process and disrupts American and international efforts to build confidence and relaunch negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel.”

It condemned the statements of Lapid and other Israeli officials opposed to the reopening of the consulate, which was merged into the US Embassy in Jerusalem by the administration of former US President Donald Trump.

The ministry also condemned “pressure” from Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Lapid on the US administration to backtrack on its decision to reopen the consulate.

According to the PA Foreign Ministry, the Israeli position is in the context of the “Israelization and Judaization of Jerusalem, ethnic cleansing of the residents of Jerusalem and attempts to change the historical and legal status of the city.”

It accused Israel of working to sabotage the efforts of the Biden administration to revive the peace process between the Palestinians and Israel.

Responding to Bennett’s recent remarks in which he was quoted as saying he would not meet with PA President Mahmoud Abbas because of the latter’s efforts to prosecute Israelis for “war crimes” before the International Criminal Court, the PA ministry said, “Those who fear trial before the International Criminal Court must immediately stop committing more violations and crimes against the Palestinian people and their homeland.”

“Naftali Bennett continues to repeat his statements and stances that are hostile to peace and reject any political process with the Palestinian leadership,” it added. “The ministry warns against Bennett’s misleading campaigns and statements, which aim to gain more time in favor of perpetuating the occupation and settlements. Bennett is selling illusions to all parties in exchange for calm and keeping his government in power, while maintaining his expansionist colonial project.”

Afghan debacle to cast shadow over transatlantic security

In February, President Biden declared, “We would repair our alliances and engage with the world once again.” Seven months later, his bungled Afghanistan pullout has left US alliances bruised and battered. Repairing the damage will not be easy. 

The sudden US withdrawal showed callous disregard for its allies. This was compounded by the administration’s Pollyannaish response to the international deluge of criticism that followed.

It is being said openly that the US administration failed to comprehend the ownership stake which many European allies retained in a secure and democratic Afghanistan. The Germans, for example, deployed 150,000 soldiers to Afghanistan from 2002- 2021, many for repeat tours. Berlin’s decision to join the US-led effort was not easy. For historical reasons, Germany is extremely cautious about overseas military deployments, and getting the mission extended year over year was tortuous and politically taxing.

Yet the Germans and other allies stood with the US year over year. Last year, NATO’s Resolute Support (RS) mission to train and equip the Afghan National Security Forces counted 16,000 troops from 38 allies and partner nations.

Yet Biden decided to pull all US forces from Afghanistan unilaterally, leaving allies – many of whom had recently committed additional troops to RS at the behest of the US – feeling as though the rug had been pulled out from under them.

Some allies, such as Italy, Turkey and the United Kingdom, reportedly sought to sustain a presence in the country but were unable without US support, in particular American air support. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried desperately to find out what the US was doing, but the White House ignored his calls for 36 hours. If the administration didn’t bother to talk to Britain, something deeply dysfunctional was happening.

Biden’s precipitate action created a crush of desperation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, leaving Europeans stranded and allies like France and the UK resorting to dangerous, clandestine rescues of their own citizens from the streets of Kabul.

Now, many analysts say, Taliban are back in charge and flush with billions in abandoned western equipment and weapons. Afghanistan will soon be a haven for transnational terrorists once more. Even Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledges, “you could see a resurgence of terrorism coming out of that general region within 12, 24, 36 months.”

The allied reaction has been scathing. Armin Laschet, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, called the Afghanistan withdrawal “the greatest debacle that NATO has seen since its foundation.”

Calling it “the biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez,” Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK’s Foreign Affairs Committee added, “We need to think again about how we handle friends, who matters and how we defend our interests.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “For those who believed in democracy and freedom, especially for women, these are bitter events.”

Europe’s disillusionment and anger with Biden and the US is understandable. They remember how President Obama’s Iraq withdrawal led to a flood of refugees, the rise of ISIS and years of terror attacks. They are bracing for a repeat.

Last week, the EU began quickly drawing up plans to boost aid to neighboring Iran and Pakistan in hopes of holding back the tide of refugees.

Rotting credibility may lead adversaries to wonder whether an attack against the NATO alliance would be met with full US resolve and commitment. In some corners of Europe, the inability to sustain an independent European force in Afghanistan is already leading to renewed calls for an autonomous EU military.

Staunching the damage requires a sustained effort to get beyond trite speeches and show that our alliances matter. The Biden administration should reverse its requested defense cuts, which just further erode US credibility.

The US has to establish a permanent presence in Eastern Europe. It will have to invest in desperately needed Arctic capabilities. To improve NATO it will have to go back towards basics, collective defense of the member states. Unleash the power of the market through the Three Seas Initiative to help infrastructure blossom in Eastern Europe, while drowning out Russian and Chinese efforts to make inroads.

These are just a few of the many steps that should be taken to restore allies’ faith in the US. The US needs to shore up its European alliances. It has tools to do that and just show the will to do and stick to it.

Can Hezbollah be savior of Lebanon?

The Lebanese people, regardless of sect or component, welcomed the decision, and at a time when the Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, have not taken any steps to help the Lebanese people despite their support for Lebanon, Iran became the Lebanese salvation card.

Iran is trying to position itself as a fuel supplier to Lebanon to empower its Lebanese proxy. The goal is to force Lebanon to become dependent on Iran and then all the gas and fuel going to Lebanon will come through Hezbollah, which can then provide it to allies and friends.

Opponents of Hezbollah say that Iran’s goal is to impoverish Lebanon, destroy its middle and upper class, encourage its Sunni and Christian community to emigrate so that Hezbollah can grow in power and that all that will remain is a hollowed-out Lebanese state that is a province within a larger Hezbollahstan that is more powerful than Lebanon.

They also allege that Iran has been doing this for decades, slowly helping Hezbollah swallow Lebanon and create a parallel state and economy. Hezbollah has its own extra-judicial armed forces, a massive illegal armed militia with 150,000 missiles. Hezbollah sends fighters to Syria and conducts Lebanon’s foreign policy. Hezbollah has its own telecommunications network. It is able to control voting for the presidency and premiership. It also has a parallel construction, banking, and even supermarket network. Now it will be the supplier of fuel to Lebanon.

A report by Iran’s Tasnim media, "The Iranian ships, the triangle of resistance that shattered the American hegemony," lays out the Iranian regime's approach. Iran’s media is linked to the government and it parrots the government’s agenda. “Iran's fuel exports to Lebanon to resolve the country's crisis are currently making headlines in the Middle East and Western media,” the report says. It notes that the ships, making their way via the Suez Canal to Lebanon, are a “point of hope for the country.” Nasrallah said the Iranian ships would arrive soon.

 “The important point is that the import of gas from Egypt to Lebanon must be done through the territory of Syria, which is not possible without the consent of the Syrian government, and the United States must obtain the consent of Damascus, which requires the reduction of sanctions against Syria or it is the general abolition of Caesar Law,” says Tasnim.

In essence, Iran now knows that the fuel weapon can be used to force Lebanon to be dependent on Iran and its allies Hezbollah and Syria. Iran wins either way, either through bringing ships of “salvation” to Lebanon or by getting the US to aid the Syrian regime.

Iran suspects that the US wants to prevent the Iranian oil and gas shipments. “The Americans are in a paradoxical situation - on the one hand, they intend to prevent the import of Iranian fuel to Lebanon, and on the other hand, sanctions against Syria will continue,” the report says.

"The Zionist regime, which along with the United States is considered one of the biggest victims of Iran's fuel imports to Lebanon, has preferred to remain silent for the time being and has not even uttered its usual threats against Iranian ships, but the Zionists fear this action can be clearly seen in the media reports and comments of the regime's experts.”

Iran should be monitoring Israel’s reaction closely. The report notes “Israel's silence on the arrival of Iranian fuel ships in Beirut,” and also says the arrival of fuel “will increase Hezbollah's popularity in Lebanon and expand Iran's national influence in Lebanon, which means the failure of all the projects of Washington and Tel Aviv against the Lebanese resistance.”

The fuel weapon is now Iran’s main priority. The goal is to build up Hezbollah. “The success of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah in rescuing the Lebanese people from the fuel crisis once again introduced him as a savior for all Lebanese and a leader who is working hard to resolve the country's crises, as opposed to the real face of some Lebanese politicians who it became clear to everyone that they were involved in aligning the positions of the West and the United States in the siege of Lebanon and in creating crisis and sedition inside the country,” Tasnim reported.

The point is that Hezbollah should be perceived as “saving” Lebanon while the West is seen as harming Lebanon. Meanwhile, the opposition to Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened.

This Janus-face use of Hezbollah, where Hezbollah is responsible for Lebanon’s economic collapse and benefits from it by making Lebanon dependent on Iran, is the same model Qatar used with the Taliban in Afghanistan. It empowered the Taliban to take over Afghanistan and also gained credit from the West for “helping” Afghans flee.

Iran alleges that conglomerates in Lebanon include companies that hoard goods and which are controlled by the US. Iran is thus positioning itself as warring with the US economically in the region. Iran has a new deal with China that may be part of the reason it now sees the economy as a frontline. Hezbollah has created a new equation according to which Lebanese could turn to the East to resolve their economic crisis, led by the Islamic Republic of Iran and then Lebanon. It can operate freely in the commercial and economic spheres and gradually get out of American control.

Iran argues that its enemies in Lebanon include Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea. Hezbollah assassinated Hariri’s father, who was also prime minister. Iran accuses Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states of laying “siege” to Lebanon.

A Lebanese delegation went to Syria and asserts that this “unprecedented move shows that the Americans were unwittingly forced to reduce pressure on Damascus and Beirut. During the meeting, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stressed that he was ready to provide any support to the Lebanese brothers.” Iran wins either way is the narrative.

Iran claims the US made a decision to get Lebanon to bring gas from Egypt to Lebanon through Syria. This paves the way for Hezbollah to redouble its efforts to break the US brutal siege of Lebanon, and this could even affect the border demarcation talks between Lebanon and occupied Palestine, and perhaps even use Iranian companies to extract Lebanese gas and oil.

The border issue likely relates to demarcating water borders off the coast. The move could also pave the way for countries such as Russia, Iran, and China to invest in Lebanon and take the Lebanese economy out of Western control.

Iran argues that this defeat of the US is linked to the defeat of the US in Afghanistan which shattered American hegemony and could be an incentive for other nations in the region to relinquish control by Washington.

Iran sees a tectonic shift in the region. This is big news for Israel because if Iran has successfully engineered an economic war by which Hezbollah and the Syrian regime are empowered, then Iran will likely use this leverage to further entrench itself in Syria and Lebanon in order to threaten Israel.

Iran has shown its cards that it has a long-term economic goal stretching from China via Afghanistan to Iran and then through Iraq to Lebanon. This is the wider impact of the fuel war currently being waged.