The Lebanese people, regardless of sect or component,
welcomed the decision, and at a time when the Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia,
have not taken any steps to help the Lebanese people despite their support for
Lebanon, Iran became the Lebanese salvation card.
Iran is trying to position itself as
a fuel supplier to Lebanon to empower its Lebanese proxy. The goal is
to force Lebanon to become dependent on Iran and then all the gas and fuel
going to Lebanon will come through Hezbollah, which can then provide it to
allies and friends.
Opponents of Hezbollah say that Iran’s goal is to impoverish
Lebanon, destroy its middle and upper class, encourage its Sunni and Christian
community to emigrate so that Hezbollah can grow in power and that all that
will remain is a hollowed-out Lebanese state that is a province within a larger
Hezbollahstan that is more powerful than Lebanon.
They also allege that Iran has been doing this for decades,
slowly helping Hezbollah swallow Lebanon and create a parallel state and
economy. Hezbollah has its own extra-judicial armed forces, a massive illegal
armed militia with 150,000 missiles. Hezbollah sends fighters to Syria and
conducts Lebanon’s foreign policy. Hezbollah has its own telecommunications
network. It is able to control voting for the presidency and premiership. It
also has a parallel construction, banking, and even supermarket network. Now it
will be the supplier of fuel to Lebanon.
A report by Iran’s Tasnim media, "The Iranian ships,
the triangle of resistance that shattered the American hegemony," lays out
the Iranian regime's approach. Iran’s media is linked to the government and it
parrots the government’s agenda. “Iran's fuel exports to Lebanon to resolve the
country's crisis are currently making headlines in the Middle East and Western
media,” the report says. It notes that the ships, making their way via the Suez
Canal to Lebanon, are a “point of hope for the country.” Nasrallah said the
Iranian ships would arrive soon.
“The important point
is that the import of gas from Egypt to Lebanon must be done through the
territory of Syria, which is not possible without the consent of the Syrian
government, and the United States must obtain the consent of Damascus, which
requires the reduction of sanctions against Syria or it is the general
abolition of Caesar Law,” says Tasnim.
In essence, Iran now knows that the fuel weapon can be used
to force Lebanon to be dependent on Iran and its allies Hezbollah and Syria.
Iran wins either way, either through bringing ships of “salvation” to Lebanon
or by getting the US to aid the Syrian regime.
Iran suspects that the US wants to prevent the Iranian oil
and gas shipments. “The Americans are in a paradoxical situation - on the one
hand, they intend to prevent the import of Iranian fuel to Lebanon, and on the
other hand, sanctions against Syria will continue,” the report says.
"The Zionist regime, which along with the United States
is considered one of the biggest victims of Iran's fuel imports to Lebanon, has
preferred to remain silent for the time being and has not even uttered its
usual threats against Iranian ships, but the Zionists fear this action can be
clearly seen in the media reports and comments of the regime's experts.”
Iran should be monitoring Israel’s reaction closely. The
report notes “Israel's silence on the arrival of Iranian fuel ships in Beirut,”
and also says the arrival of fuel “will increase Hezbollah's popularity in
Lebanon and expand Iran's national influence in Lebanon, which means the
failure of all the projects of Washington and Tel Aviv against the Lebanese
resistance.”
The fuel weapon is now Iran’s main priority. The goal is to
build up Hezbollah. “The success of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah in rescuing the
Lebanese people from the fuel crisis once again introduced him as a savior for
all Lebanese and a leader who is working hard to resolve the country's crises,
as opposed to the real face of some Lebanese politicians who it became clear to
everyone that they were involved in aligning the positions of the West and the
United States in the siege of Lebanon and in creating crisis and sedition
inside the country,” Tasnim reported.
The point is that Hezbollah should be perceived as “saving”
Lebanon while the West is seen as harming Lebanon. Meanwhile, the opposition to
Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened.
This Janus-face use of Hezbollah, where Hezbollah is
responsible for Lebanon’s economic collapse and benefits from it by making
Lebanon dependent on Iran, is the same model Qatar used with the Taliban in
Afghanistan. It empowered the Taliban to take over Afghanistan and also gained
credit from the West for “helping” Afghans flee.
Iran alleges that conglomerates in Lebanon include companies
that hoard goods and which are controlled by the US. Iran is thus positioning
itself as warring with the US economically in the region. Iran has a new deal
with China that may be part of the reason it now sees the economy as a
frontline. Hezbollah has created a new equation according to which Lebanese
could turn to the East to resolve their economic crisis, led by the Islamic
Republic of Iran and then Lebanon. It can operate freely in the commercial and
economic spheres and gradually get out of American control.
Iran argues that its enemies in Lebanon include Former
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea.
Hezbollah assassinated Hariri’s father, who was also prime minister. Iran
accuses Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states of laying “siege” to Lebanon.
A Lebanese delegation went to Syria and asserts that this
“unprecedented move shows that the Americans were unwittingly forced to reduce
pressure on Damascus and Beirut. During the meeting, Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad stressed that he was ready to provide any support to the Lebanese
brothers.” Iran wins either way is the narrative.
Iran claims the US made a decision to get Lebanon to bring
gas from Egypt to Lebanon through Syria. This paves the way for Hezbollah to
redouble its efforts to break the US brutal siege of Lebanon, and this could
even affect the border demarcation talks between Lebanon and occupied
Palestine, and perhaps even use Iranian companies to extract Lebanese gas and
oil.
The border issue likely relates to demarcating water borders
off the coast. The move could also pave the way for countries such as Russia,
Iran, and China to invest in Lebanon and take the Lebanese economy out of
Western control.
Iran argues that this defeat of the US is linked to the defeat
of the US in Afghanistan which shattered American hegemony and could be an
incentive for other nations in the region to relinquish control by Washington.
Iran sees a tectonic shift in the region. This is big news
for Israel because if Iran has successfully engineered an economic war by which
Hezbollah and the Syrian regime are empowered, then Iran will likely use this
leverage to further entrench itself in Syria and Lebanon in order to threaten
Israel.
Iran has shown its cards that it has a long-term economic
goal stretching from China via Afghanistan to Iran and then through Iraq to
Lebanon. This is the wider impact of the fuel war currently being waged.
