Reportedly, Lebanon is hurtling toward total collapse. The
World Bank believes that the country’s financial and economic crisis is one of
the severest the world has witnessed in the past 150 years.
A number of factors
have contributed to Lebanon’s disastrous situation, but a major cause of its
troubles is the dominant position that Iran has managed to acquire in the
nation’s political life, by way of its proxy Hezbollah. But now that Iran
is undergoing a severe economic crisis of its own, a window of opportunity may
have opened for its malign influence over Lebanon to be weakened, if not
entirely eliminated.
Lebanon is on the verge of a political, economic and social
catastrophe. It has been without a government for eight months. Food and
medicines are in short supply, electricity cuts last for much of the day, while
people are queuing for hours at gas stations and, as they clash over who gets
to fill their tank first, fist fights have turned into shootings. Now
criminal gangs are moving in to exploit the situation. A representative of the
union for fuel distributors and gas stations in Lebanon said, “Individuals
claiming to be in charge of security at gas stations are using extortion… The
owners of over 140 gas stations are refusing to accept deliveries of gasoline
because they have been exposed to extortion and beatings.”
On 22nd June the acting administration raised the
price of bread for the fifth time in a year. The latest increase — 18
percent from the last raise in February — was the result of the decision to end
subsidies on sugar and yeast, which both go up in price in consequence.
In June the World Bank issued a report on the rapidly
deteriorating situation. It believes that more than half of Lebanon‘s
population may have been pushed below the poverty line. While the official
rate of exchange for one US dollar is 1,507 Lebanese pounds, the banks do not
permit currency conversion or foreign fund transfers and so dollars are simply
not available at the official rate. On 25th June the rate on
the black market was 16,450 Lebanese pounds. The country’s gross domestic
product, close to US$55 billion in 2018, plummeted to some US$33 billion last
year. Foreign currency reserves are at an all-time low.
The World Bank pulls no punches in its criticism of
Lebanon’s political elite in which Hezbollah features so strongly. It
accuses them of deliberately failing to tackle the country’s many problems,
which include the economic and financial crisis, the COVID pandemic and last
year’s Port of Beirut explosion. The inaction, says the report, is due to
failure to agree on policy initiatives but also a continuing political
consensus that defends “a bankrupt economic system, which benefited a few for
so long”.
Following the explosion in Port Beirut in August 2020, Saad
Hariri was named by the Lebanese parliament as prime minister designate, and
charged with forming a new government. So far, because of an ongoing dispute
between him and President Michel Aoun over the composition of the new
administration, he has failed to do so.
Hariri wants to assemble a technocrat cabinet dedicated to
enacting the reforms long demanded by the World Bank, the International
Monetary Fund and donor countries such as the United States and France. In
March he stormed out of a meeting with Aoun, telling reporters that the President
had sent him a proposed list of ministers and asked him to sign off on them.
Hariri had rejected the request as unconstitutional. Aoun is a strong
supporter of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that dominates Lebanese politics
and underpins his presidency. According to Hariri, Aoun was pushing for a third
of all cabinet seats for his Hezbollah allies and their supporters, which would
give them, veto power over government decisions.
The shoeing into power in Iran on 18th June of a
hard-liner, Ebrahim Raisi, as its new president can be seen as a desperate
effort by the ruling élite to shore up the power of a regime in economic
freefall. The value of the Rial, the national currency, has halved over
the past two years, inflation is running at 50% and the country is experiencing
mass unemployment. Popular protests are bursting out in major towns and cities
all over Iran.
Hezbollah’s popularity among the Shia population owes much
to the vast sums it has spent in its social and health programs. The
collapse of the Iranian economy means that the regime is no longer able to pay
its Hezbollah proxy in dollars. Its financial support is now provided in
the rapidly depreciating Lebanese currency.
Bahaa Hariri, the brother of Lebanon’s designated Prime
Minister Saad, is a billionaire businessman. He is reported to believe
that if Iran cannot continue with its payments, support for Hezbollah will
quickly collapse. “Some die-hard supporters will maintain their allegiance to
Hezbollah,” he is reported as saying, “but many others will no longer be
prepared to support the movement if the payments stop.”
One failing economy is attempting to support another, while
simultaneously trying to maintain the political status quo. That is
scarcely a sustainable situation. If Iran’s deteriorating economic
position results in Hezbollah losing power in Lebanon, this might provide the
opportunity for Hariri to assemble his technocrat cabinet and institute the
economic reforms necessary to pull the country back from the brink of
disaster.