Afghan debacle to cast shadow over transatlantic security

In February, President Biden declared, “We would repair our alliances and engage with the world once again.” Seven months later, his bungled Afghanistan pullout has left US alliances bruised and battered. Repairing the damage will not be easy. 

The sudden US withdrawal showed callous disregard for its allies. This was compounded by the administration’s Pollyannaish response to the international deluge of criticism that followed.

It is being said openly that the US administration failed to comprehend the ownership stake which many European allies retained in a secure and democratic Afghanistan. The Germans, for example, deployed 150,000 soldiers to Afghanistan from 2002- 2021, many for repeat tours. Berlin’s decision to join the US-led effort was not easy. For historical reasons, Germany is extremely cautious about overseas military deployments, and getting the mission extended year over year was tortuous and politically taxing.

Yet the Germans and other allies stood with the US year over year. Last year, NATO’s Resolute Support (RS) mission to train and equip the Afghan National Security Forces counted 16,000 troops from 38 allies and partner nations.

Yet Biden decided to pull all US forces from Afghanistan unilaterally, leaving allies – many of whom had recently committed additional troops to RS at the behest of the US – feeling as though the rug had been pulled out from under them.

Some allies, such as Italy, Turkey and the United Kingdom, reportedly sought to sustain a presence in the country but were unable without US support, in particular American air support. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried desperately to find out what the US was doing, but the White House ignored his calls for 36 hours. If the administration didn’t bother to talk to Britain, something deeply dysfunctional was happening.

Biden’s precipitate action created a crush of desperation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, leaving Europeans stranded and allies like France and the UK resorting to dangerous, clandestine rescues of their own citizens from the streets of Kabul.

Now, many analysts say, Taliban are back in charge and flush with billions in abandoned western equipment and weapons. Afghanistan will soon be a haven for transnational terrorists once more. Even Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledges, “you could see a resurgence of terrorism coming out of that general region within 12, 24, 36 months.”

The allied reaction has been scathing. Armin Laschet, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, called the Afghanistan withdrawal “the greatest debacle that NATO has seen since its foundation.”

Calling it “the biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez,” Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK’s Foreign Affairs Committee added, “We need to think again about how we handle friends, who matters and how we defend our interests.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “For those who believed in democracy and freedom, especially for women, these are bitter events.”

Europe’s disillusionment and anger with Biden and the US is understandable. They remember how President Obama’s Iraq withdrawal led to a flood of refugees, the rise of ISIS and years of terror attacks. They are bracing for a repeat.

Last week, the EU began quickly drawing up plans to boost aid to neighboring Iran and Pakistan in hopes of holding back the tide of refugees.

Rotting credibility may lead adversaries to wonder whether an attack against the NATO alliance would be met with full US resolve and commitment. In some corners of Europe, the inability to sustain an independent European force in Afghanistan is already leading to renewed calls for an autonomous EU military.

Staunching the damage requires a sustained effort to get beyond trite speeches and show that our alliances matter. The Biden administration should reverse its requested defense cuts, which just further erode US credibility.

The US has to establish a permanent presence in Eastern Europe. It will have to invest in desperately needed Arctic capabilities. To improve NATO it will have to go back towards basics, collective defense of the member states. Unleash the power of the market through the Three Seas Initiative to help infrastructure blossom in Eastern Europe, while drowning out Russian and Chinese efforts to make inroads.

These are just a few of the many steps that should be taken to restore allies’ faith in the US. The US needs to shore up its European alliances. It has tools to do that and just show the will to do and stick to it.