US Ambassador readying people of Bangladesh for an ‘engineered’ election

On June 13, 2022, I had posted a blog titled “United States starts playing regime change mantra in Bangladesh”. I quoted Jamie Raskin, Member of US House of Representatives, urging his colleagues to join him in standing with the people of Bangladesh, especially those bravest and most vulnerable. 

Today, I am quoting what the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas has said lately.

US Ambassador said the sanctions on Rab will not damage the bilateral relationship and that the two countries, which have deep ties, will move on and work together based on shared values of democracy and human rights.

“…A lot of people ask me if I think this will damage our bilateral relations. And I just say, I don’t think it has to,” he said in a talk show titled AmTalk. Video of the event has been uploaded to the Embassy’s Facebook page.

The envoy said there are frictions in the relationship. “And that’s okay when you have a relationship as broad and deep as ours. But what I want to see us do both on Rab and every other aspect is to sit down and to talk about… what do we need to do to resolve this issue.”

Last year, Washington imposed sanctions on Rab and some of its current and former officials.

Haas said his country heard a lot of times how Bangladesh was surprised when the US imposed sanctions.

“And maybe we’re almost surprised they’re surprised, because already in 2018, we stopped providing training to the Rab, because of our concerns on human rights.

For several years, we’ve published in our human rights reports our concerns. We’ve raised it with them in bilateral meetings. And so, while the sanctions may have come as a surprise, the idea that we had concerns should not have.”

The envoy said the US is also not perfect when it comes to democracy but that the striving for democracy must continue.

Referring to Bangladesh, he said there are things that the Bangladeshi people and the government can work on as well and the elections provide a good framing for that, because they’re still more than a year out.

“We don’t favour any particular party, or platform, or anything else … But what we would like to see is what I think all Bangladeshis would like to see, which is an election run at international standards that allow the people of Bangladesh to choose their next leaders in an open, competitive process free of violence and free of coercion.”

Haas said he welcomes some of the signs, some of the signals that they have been receiving.

“Foreign Minister [Abdul] Momen has made it clear that Bangladesh will welcome international observers. And I think that’s critical.

“But the election actually has already started. And so, it’s important to be looking at it all the way from now to make sure that everyone feels safe and secure in their decision on whether or not to participate in any aspect of the upcoming elections,” he added.

 

Israel using gas exports to boost its diplomatic influence

A visit to the Leviathan gas rig off the coast of Haifa illustrates Israel’s opportunity to up its gas game and wield its diplomatic power across the globe. The gas rig is actually quite big.

With three main levels and pipes that seem to go on forever – leaving one wonder how someone figured out how to connect them all.

Leviathan is the largest gas rig in Israeli waters that receives gas from the country’s largest gas reservoir located well over 100 km away. The gas flows through the rig where it is cleaned and then propelled directly to Israel where it immediately powers the country.

Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened what some in the industry call “historic opportunities” for the Jewish state to up its energy game and, in return, increase its diplomatic value and standing in the Middle East and beyond.

The illustrations are bountiful, but two are important: In March, President Isaac Herzog flew to Turkey and met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Jerusalem for talks with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

Ankara is heavily reliant on Russia for energy – including 45% of its natural gas and 17% of its oil. Reconciliation with Israel and improving relations is the key for Turkey to be able to potentially diversify its suppliers and cut back its dependence on Russia.

The second example was the flip-flop that Israeli Energy Minister Karin Elharrar did on May 30 when she announced that her ministry would be issuing licenses for new exploration of natural gas in Israeli waters. It was a sharp turn from what the Yesh Atid had announced just six months earlier in December 2021.

Elharrar said, “In the coming year we will focus on the future, on green energy, on energy optimization and on renewable energy, and while we do so we will put aside the development of natural gas, which, as is known, is a short-term solution.”

By May 30, Elharrar was singing a different mantra, “The global energy crisis provides an opportunity for Israel to export natural gas, along with the honest and real concern for what is going on in Europe.”

A global energy crisis and the recognition that Israel can play a role in resolving it and at the same time improving its international standing, makes the big difference.

“The world changed and we cannot ignore it,” said Energy Ministry Director General Lior Schillat. “There is a rise in the demand for gas especially in Europe since the Russia situation and they need a steady supply and the minister did a reassessment in the middle of the year instead of at the end of the year since we think it is possible to increase the supply.”

Oded Eran, Israel’s former Ambassador to the European Union, said that the developments in Europe are a historic opportunity for Israel and the energy minister’s policy reversal needs to be looked at through that prism. On the one hand, Eran explained, was the populist-driven decision last December to stop exploration which had wanted to put Israel on track with the climate change camp while ignoring the economic and diplomatic opportunities that gas provides the country.

Until now, Eran added, Israel was not viewed as an international energy player but just as a regional one. “But now with the war in Ukraine, you can see that Israel is not unimportant,” he said.

As an example, Eran referred to US President Joe Biden’s promise in March to transfer 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of liquefied natural gas to Europe by the end of 2022 to help with the shortfall caused by the war in Ukraine. Israel, he said, already exports about 10 BCM of natural gas to Jordan and Egypt.

“This is not far from the amount that Biden promised Europe,” he said.

Rising Indian purchases of Russian coal and crude oil

According to a Reuters report, Indian purchases of Russian coal have spiked in recent weeks despite global sanctions on Moscow, as traders offer discounts of up to 30%.

Russia, facing severe Western sanctions, had warned the European Union in April against sweeping sanctions on coal, saying they would backfire as the fuel would be redirected to other markets.

India has refrained from condemning Russia, with which it has longstanding political and security ties, but urged an end to violence in Ukraine. New Delhi defends its purchases of Russian goods as part of an effort to diversify supplies and argues a sudden halt would jack up prices and hurt its consumers.

The US officials had told India there was no ban on energy imports from Russia but they (US administration) do not want to see a rapid escalation in imports from Russia.

As European importers shun trade with Moscow, Indian buyers are mopping up huge quantities of Russian coal despite high freight costs.

Its purchases of coal and related products jumped more than six-fold to US$331.17 million in the recent 20 days from the same period a year earlier, according to unpublished Indian government data reviewed by Reuters.

Similarly, Indian refiners have snapped up cheap Russian oil shunned by Western countries. The value of India's oil trade with Russia during the period under review jumped more than 31-fold to US$2.22 billion, the data showed.

"The Russian traders have been liberal with payment routes and are accepting payments in Indian rupee and United Arab Emirates dirham," one source said. "The discounts are attractive, and this trend of higher Russian coal purchases will continue."

Offshore units of such Russian coal traders as Suek AG, KTK and Cyprus-based Carbo One in places including Dubai and Singapore offered discounts of 25% to 30%, triggering bulk purchases of Russian thermal coal by traders supplying to utilities and cement makers, the sources said.

Another source said the Singapore-based unit of Suek was also accepting payments in dollars.

Suek and KTK did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not immediately reach Carbo One.

The EU ban has barred new coal contracts and by mid-August will force the member nations to terminate existing ones.

India bought an average US$16.55 million of Russian coal a day, more than double the US$7.71 million it bought in the three months after Russian invasion on Ukraine on February 24, this year, according to Reuters calculations.

Oil purchases averaged US$110.86 million a day in the 20-day period, more than triple the US$31.16 million it spent in the three months ended May 26, 2022.

Indian bulk buying of Russian coal is set to continue, with June imports expected to be the most in at least seven and a half years, Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking data showed.

Bulk shipments of Russian thermal coal started reaching India in the third week of May, with orders mainly from cement and steel firms and traders, according to shipping data compiled by an Indian coal trader.

 

Pakistan should forget buying Russian oil for the time being

I am an ardent supporter of buying Russian oil being sold at huge discount. However, on the second thought, without mincing my words, I would say Pakistan should forget buying Russian oil for the time being. The country must solicit better terms and conditions from countries currently meeting Pakistan’s requirements.

First and the foremost, Pakistani refineries are not tuned to refine Russian oil. Even if Pakistan decides to buy Russian oil, the prerequisite is making these refineries capable of refining Russian oil. At this juncture, Pakistan neither has the foreign exchange nor the time to re-tune the refineries.

Second making payment to Russian suppliers is a stumbling block. Even those European countries, heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, are being pressurized by United States to gradually curtail their purchases of energy products from Russia. The payment process is also being made difficult. On top of all, Pakistan also does not have ample rubles.

Third, Pakistan already enjoys deferred payment facility from Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is also willing to give more foreign exchange, but it would certainly not approve taking money from it and buying oil from Russia.

Pakistan can also increase purchase of motor gasoline and diesel purchase from these two brotherly countries to avoid any retuning of the refineries in Pakistan.

UAE is already a joint venture partner in Pakistan’s largest refinery, Pak-Arab Refinery (PARCO) located at Mahmood Kot near Multan and black and white oil pipelines in Pakistan.

Forth, the sailing time from Saudi Arabia/United Arab Emirates to Pakistan is certainly shorter as compared to any of the Russian ports. Therefore, the benefit of discounted price would be eroded to a significant extent by higher freight cost.

Along with buying crude oil and POL products from Saudi Arabia and UAE, Pakistan should also negotiate with Qatar to sell LNG at concessional price that too at a deferred payment.

On the diplomatic front Pakistan should also convince United States to let the country buy LNG from Iran. The argument is simple, “If India being a member of QUAD can buy oil from Russia despite sanctions; Pakistan should also be allowed to buy gas from Iran”.     

As such the negotiations regarding ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’ has been dragged for too long. If United States is willing to allow Venezuela to export oil, sanctions on Iran should also be withdrawn immediately to save the world from crude oil and energy products becoming too expensive.

This is also to remind the policy makers that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has already assured Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari the willingness of his country to meet Pakistan’s demand of oil, gas and electricity.

Iran can fulfill Pakistan’s energy needs, says President Raisi

According to Tasnim News Agency, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi expressed the country’s readiness to satisfy Pakistan’s demand for oil, gas and electricity. In a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, held in Tehran, Raisi hailed the close ties between the two neighbors, saying the people of Iran and Pakistan are like relatives.

“We consider Pakistan’s security to be our own security,” he said, adding, “Some do not like the good relations between the two Muslim, neighboring, friendly and brotherly nations, but the development of relations leads to economic prosperity and more security for the nations of the region.”

There are no restrictions in Tehran for the development of relations with Islamabad, Raisi noted, saying, “We are ready to promote comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran has the necessary capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs in various fields, including oil, gas and electricity.”

The Iranian president called the fields of energy, transit and cooperation and coordination in the regional issues and crises as important aspects of relations between the two countries, his official website reported.

For his part, Bilawal expressed satisfaction with the visit to Iran, adding, “As much as I am a child of Pakistan, I am also a child of Iran.”

Thanking Iran for exporting electricity to Pakistan, the Foreign Minister said, “We are fully prepared to complete and conclude the previous talks in the fields of security, trade and energy.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister also praised the government of Iran for its assistance in extinguishing the widespread wildfires in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

 

European leaders visit Ukraine

I am a bit surprised but a lot disturbed to read this news. German, Italian and Romanian leaders visited a small town Irpin to show support for Ukraine. However, little effort is being made to negotiate ceasefire. 

I also fail to understand why people of Ukraine have been made scapegoat to push Russia out of the energy market. United States has done this to Iran, Iraq, Libya and Venezuela in the past.

French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that there are signs of war crimes in a Kyiv suburb following “massacres” by Russian forces. He spoke in the town of Irpin while on a visit with the German, Italian and Romanian leaders to show support for Ukraine.

He denounced the “barbarism” of the attacks that devastated the town, and praised the courage of residents of Irpin and other Kyiv region towns who held back Russians forces from attacking the capital.

The four European leaders arrived earlier in Kyiv to the sound of air raid sirens as they made a high-profile show of collective European support for the Ukrainian people as they resist Russia’s invasion.

The visit, which includes a planned meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, carries heavy symbolic weight given that the three Western European powers have faced criticism for not providing Ukraine with the scale of weaponry that Zelenskyy has been asking for.

They have also been criticized for not visiting Kyiv sooner. In past weeks and months a number of other European leaders had already made the long trip overland to show solidarity with a nation under attack, even in times when the fighting raged closer to the capital than it does now.

The French president’s office said that Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Premier Mario Draghi, representing the three largest economies in Europe, traveled to Kyiv together on a special overnight train provided by the Ukrainian authorities.

President Klaus Iohannis of Romania — which borders Ukraine and has been a key destination for Ukrainian refugees — arrived on a separate train, tweeting on arrival, “This illegal Russian aggression must stop!”

“It’s a message of European unity for the Ukrainian people, support now and in the future, because the weeks to come will be very difficult,” Macron said.

The Russian forces are pressing their offensive in the eastern Donbas region, slowly but steadily gaining ground on the badly outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian forces, who are pleading for more arms from Western allies.

Several air raid sirens rang out while the European leaders were in their hotel preparing for the rest of their visit, and Kyiv authorities urged people to seek shelter. Such alerts are a frequent occurrence.

As he left the hotel, Macron, putting his hand on his heart, said in English, “I want to show my admiration for the Ukrainian people.”

German news agency dpa quoted Scholz as saying that the leaders are seeking to show not only solidarity but also their intent to keep up financial and humanitarian help for Ukraine, and a supply of weapons.

Scholz added that this support would continue “for as long as is necessary for Ukraine’s fight for independence.”

Scholz said that the sanctions against Russia were also significant and could lead to Moscow withdrawing its troops, according to dpa.

Scholz, Macron and Draghi have been criticized not only for helping too little but for speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Many leaders and regular people in the Baltic and Central European nations, which were controlled by Moscow during the Cold War, believe that Putin only understands force, and have viewed the efforts by Macron and others to keep speaking to Putin following his invasion as unacceptable.

Hopes were high among Ukrainians that the visit could mark a turning point by opening the way to significant new arms supplies.

Tamara Malko, a resident of Pokrovsk, in the Donestsk region of eastern Ukraine, said Macron and Olaf had been “very cold” toward Ukrainians so far, and hoped for a change.

“We want peace very much, very much and have high hopes for Macron and Scholz,” she said. “We want them to see and understand our pain.”

Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Haidai said the visit will not bring anything if the leaders ask Ukraine to conclude a peace treaty with Russia that involves giving up territory. He said that is something Ukrainians would never accept.

“I am sure that our president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is not going to make concessions and trade our territories. If someone wants to stop Russia by giving them the territories, Germany has Bavaria, Italy has Tuscany, the French can concede Provence, for instance,” he said.

“Listen, this is Russia. These are wild people. Today it will be one territory, tomorrow another one, the day after tomorrow another. And another thing: Many heroes of Ukraine died protecting the country as a whole. Nobody will forgive us if people die but we make concessions to the aggressor.”

The visit comes as EU leaders prepare to make a decision June 23-24 on Ukraine’s request to become a candidate for EU membership, and ahead of an important NATO summit June 29-30 in Madrid.

Also Thursday, NATO defense ministers are meeting in Brussels to weigh more military aid for Ukraine. On Wednesday, the US and Germany announced more aid, as America and its allies provide longer-range weapons they say can make a difference in a fight where Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned by their Russian invaders.

On Tuesday, during a trip to Ukraine’s neighbors Romania and Moldova, Macron said a “message of support” must be sent to Ukraine before EU heads of state and government “have to make important decisions” at their Brussels meeting.

“We are in a moment where we need to send clear political signals — we, Europeans, we the European Union — toward Ukraine and the Ukrainian people,” he said.

Macron is deeply involved in diplomatic efforts to push for a cease-fire in Ukraine that would allow future peace negotiations. He has frequent discussions with Zelenskyy and has spoken on the phone several times with Russian President Vladimir Putin since Putin launched the invasion in late February.

Scholz had long resisted traveling to Kyiv, saying he didn’t want to “join the queue of people who do a quick in-out for a photo opportunity.” Instead, Scholz said a trip should focus on doing “concrete things.”

Germany on Wednesday announced that it will provide Ukraine with three multiple launch rocket systems of the kind that Kyiv has said it urgently needs to defend itself against Russia’s invasion.

 

Israel-Egypt-European Union sign initial gas export agreement

The energy ministers of Israel, Egypt and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding to export Israeli gas to Europe, at a ceremony in Cairo on Wednesday. The agreement comes as Europe looks for alternative sources of energy to Russia in light of its invasion of Ukraine.

The gas will be transferred from Israel to Egypt via an existing pipeline. Egypt will use its facilities to liquefy the gas for export to ensure a steady stream of natural gas to Europe, while ensuring the energy security of all sides.

“The MOU will allow Israel to export natural gas to Europe for the first time, and that is even more impressive when considering that significant agreements we have signed in the past year, making Israel and its energy and water market a key player in the world.”

The arrangement is meant to continue until at least 2030, and will be gradually reduced until 2050. The sides agreed to work together on carbon capture and the reduction of carbon emissions, as well as to cooperate with the private sector on green energy and energy efficiency initiatives.

In addition, the sides agreed to work on a plan to make gas exports to Europe more efficient. The EU will encourage European companies to take part in searching for and producing natural gas in Israeli and Egyptian economic waters.

Energy Minister Karin Elharrar characterized the signing as a great moment in which little Israel becomes a significant player in the global energy market.

“The MOU will allow Israel to export natural gas to Europe for the first time, and that is even more impressive when considering that significant agreements we have signed in the past year, making Israel and its energy and water market a key player in the world,” Elharrar stated.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was present at the signing, tweeted, “With this... agreement we will work on the stable delivery of natural gas to the EU from the East Med region. This will contribute to our EU energy security. And we are building infrastructure fit for renewables – the energy of the future.”

Von der Leyen addressed the important role of EU-Israel energy cooperation in her remarks to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in Jerusalem on Tuesday.

“The EU was the biggest, most important client of the Russian supplier – for oil, gas and coal,” she said, “But with the beginning of this war and the attempt of Russia to blackmail us through energy, by deliberately cutting off the energy supplies, we decided to cut off and to get rid of the dependency on Russian fossil fuels and to move away from Russia and diversify to trustworthy suppliers.”

Russia provided Europe with about 40% of its natural gas consumption per year – more than 150 billion cubic meters (bcm). Israel cannot take Russia’s place altogether, but Eastern Mediterranean states can provide about 20 bcm annually, most of which would come from Israel. The US promised Europe 15-20 bcm of liquefied natural gas following the Russia sanctions, and Qatar is expected to export 20-30 bcm to the continent.

Talks between the EU and Israel toward a framework agreement for transferring gas officially began in late April.

Energy Ministry Director-General Lior Schillat said last month, “The Europeans and Americans expect that the energy crisis will influence the continent not only in the next couple of years but for the next decade as they try to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Israel, as part of this effort, will have to build infrastructure to send more gas to Egypt and then to Europe. It is a long-term effort.”

Gas exploration and production company Energean brought the Karish reservoir in Israel’s northern waters online earlier this month, which works toward the Energy Ministry’s aim of doubling Israel’s gas export capacity in the coming years.

“Today, the local market uses 12 billion cubic meters and we export another 4 to Egypt and 3 to Jordan,” Schillat said. “We will start with low numbers of additional exports and increase as Israel’s capacity grows.”

China EAEU relations at stake

Western sanctions on Russia over its Ukraine invasion are forcing China to recalibrate ties with the Eurasian Economic Framework (EAEU), an economic union of post-Soviet states, with collaborations under the Belt and Road Initiative now at risk of secondary sanctions.

Beijing and Moscow signed a joint statement on cooperation between the EAEU and belt and road projects in 2015, a year after the union between Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan was established.

China and the EAEU agreed on greater economic coordination in 13 areas, including customs, trade, intellectual property rights, e-commerce and government procurement.

The enhanced coordination meant countries would not have to choose between Russia and China, said a commentary by the China Institute of International studies.

But with Russia now subject to sweeping Western sanctions after invading Ukraine, China’s economic relations with its northern neighbour and other EAEU countries is increasingly tricky.

“Collaboration between EAEU and Belt and Road Initiative is affected because sanctions from America and Europe increased the risk of secondary sanctions for Chinese companies,” said Zhao Long, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute for International studies.

Contractors and investors involved in EAEU and belt and road joint projects could run afoul of restrictions if they seek financing or conduct other business with companies that have been targeted by Western sanctions, he said.

The risk of these secondary sanctions has prompted hundreds of businesses and multilateral institutions to suspend ties with Russia.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Bank of China have curtailed Russian access to capital markets, according to a database compiled by Yale University’s School of Management.

Chinese tech giant Huawei has also halted new orders and furloughed some staff in Russia, the database showed.

Oil and gas behemoth Sinopec has suspended talks with Russia for a gas chemical plant worth up to US$500 million, and at least five Chinese companies stopped work on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project in northern Siberia at the end of May this year.

“The war in Ukraine is impacting bilateral developments between Russia and China, and the coordination within the Eurasian union,” said Paul Stronski, senior fellow at Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program.

China says ‘no limits’ in cooperation with Russia

“On sanctions, we are seeing Beijing being quite supportive of Moscow in this war, which is surprising given China’s normal approach to condemn separatism and interference in the internal affairs of another country. That is essentially what Russia is doing.”

But beyond diplomatic support and motivation to buy cheap energy, many Chinese companies have been wary of running afoul of US or EU sanctions because both economies are far more important export and trade markets for companies in China, Stronski said.

The impact of sanctions imposed on Russia will be felt across the EAEU because the design of the union ties them to Russia’s own fate, according to Kataryna Wolczuk, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme, and Rilka Dragneva, professor at the University of Birmingham’s school of law.

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, for example, are likely to see negative impacts on their currencies and remittances, while restrictions will affect the trade of key commodities, they wrote on the think-tank’s website last month.

Katarzyna Czerewacz-Filipowicz, an Associate Professor at Bialystok University of Technology’s faculty of engineering management in Poland, said firms like Cargotor, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company have suspended rail freight services through Russia as a sign of solidarity with Ukraine.

“Sanctions have also been applied to Russian railways, and this is probably why the uncertainty about the Belt and Road Initiative arises,” she said. “However, it is worth emphasizing that the sanctions include access to financial markets and transactions in securities. Thus, they do not cover cargo transit contracts via Russia.”

A rail line from the Chinese border through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and into the European Union, which was heavily subsidized by the Chinese side and seen as vital to get goods from China to Europe through the EAEU, is now dead, said Stronski.

“European suppliers now are wary about putting their goods on a train via Russia given the reputational risks, or fears that Russia will hold up these goods,” he said. “Chinese producers have grown wary of using the route, given all the same reasons.”

Increasingly alert to external uncertainty, China is prioritizing risk control and prevention for its belt and road push this year, according to a report released in early March by the National Development and Reform Commission.

And Chinese companies have already begun scaling back international investment under the initiative.

Some 194 belt and road projects valued at US$13.66 billion were announced last year, down from 399 projects valued at US$80.51 billion in 2020, according to a report by financial data provider Refinitiv released in December last year.

As for Russia, international isolation will hasten its pivot to the East by building the friend-shoring alliances, said Zhao at the Shanghai Institute for International studies.

“Members of the EAEU will hasten the free flow of trade, services, capital, labour and the progress of local settlements in the region before 2025,” he said. “They’ll also strengthen security initiatives with their allies in order to broaden the post-Soviet space of influence.”

 

Why Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia remains a mystery?

Despite Israeli media reports that US President Joe Biden’s planned visit to Israel and the Middle East had been rescheduled to July 14, there has been no confirmation from Washington. 

Biden didn’t mention Israel but said that he hasn’t decided yet if he’ll travel to Saudi Arabia next month. 

Speaking to reporters before Air Force One departed from Los Angeles, Biden also addressed a question about whether there are commitments he is waiting for from the Saudis or about negotiations on peace talks, before announcing his trip.

“No,” said Biden. “The commitments from the Saudis don’t relate to anything having to do with energy. It happens to be a larger meeting taking place in Saudi Arabia. That’s the reason I’m going. And it has to do with national security for them – for Israelis,” he continued. “It has to do with much larger issues than having to do with the energy prices.”

What will he try to achieve in this visit?

The United States is in a years-long process of downsizing its involvement in the Middle East, said Natan Sachs, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings.

“It still has a large military presence and still expends resources on the region, but it is looking to partner more extensively with countries in the region on security matters. This trip would be part of that effort, with the Biden administration visibly joining in an Arab-Israeli partnership for defense, especially against Iranian and Iranian-backed unmanned platforms,” he said. “It’s a significant shift in the Biden posture and another sign of a dramatically different Middle East.”

Michael Koplow, Chief Policy Officer at the Israel Policy Forum, said Biden’s visit is about US-Saudi ties first and foremost, “and I don’t expect any big American initiatives with respect to Israel or to Israeli-Palestinian issues.”

“He is trying to avoid the mistake that President Obama made in skipping Israel on his first visit to the region, and thus the Israel component seems to me more of a box-checking exercise,” Koplow said.

“The reference to Israeli security is likely about the Saudi-Egyptian agreement on transferring the islands of Tiran and Sanafir from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, which requires Israeli approval, and is viewed as another step toward Israeli-Saudi normalization and toward a broader regional security architecture in which Israel is integrated. Assuming that the JCPOA is not resurrected – increasingly the likely scenario – the US wants greater agreement and cooperation on dealing with Iran going forward, and this is a piece of that puzzle.”

Mark Dubowitz, Chief Executive at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said that Biden should be trying to achieve closer coordination with Israel on a pressure campaign against Iran, expanding efforts toward greater Saudi-Israeli normalization, “and sending a clear message to the Palestinian leadership that they can be part of the expanding process of normalization or it will pass them by.”

“The major obstacle to Saudi-Israeli normalization is in Washington not in Riyadh or Jerusalem,” Dubowitz said. 

“Biden has the opportunity to repair the damage in the US-Saudi relationship and to lay out a plan for greater regional military and intelligence integration against Iran and greater political and commercial integration between Israel and the Arab world. He has the opportunity to be remembered as the president who brought the most important Muslim country into the Abraham Accords.”

According to reports in Israeli media, Biden’s visit is expected to also include a visit to east Jerusalem. The plans follow Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf’s visit to Israel and the West Bank, and as the State Department signaled on Twitter that it upgraded its Jerusalem office to the Palestinians, and changed its name to the “US Office of Palestinian Affairs in Jerusalem.”

“The separation of the Palestinian unit from the embassy is a partial step, well short of reopening the consulate general in Jerusalem, which Biden and Blinken both promised the Palestinians,” said Sachs.

“It’s a measure meant to blunt some of the worst criticism from the Left about going forward with the regional rapprochement without any major push on the Palestinian front.”

According to Koplow, “Biden wants to signal that he is continuing to repair relations with the Palestinians despite US moves falling short of Palestinian expectations.

“The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still relatively low on his list of priorities, and that is unlikely to change in the near future, but Biden wants to demonstrate that he is not ignoring Palestinian concerns and is taking a different tack than president Trump did,” he said. “It’s more about the optics of a new US approach than it is about a big substantive shift or a shift in priorities.”

Dubowitz said that Biden should “avoid walking into the same trap on the Palestinian issue, which normally entails State Department efforts like the recent changes to its Jerusalem office to reward the Palestinian leadership without making reciprocal demands or holding them accountable.”

“Biden should be telling Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, “You can join normalization efforts and lead your people into greater prosperity and security or you can continue to obstruct, incite and deflect,” said Dubowitz. “That will guarantee only more misery and violence, the collapse of the PA and the rise of Hamas on the West Bank.”

Understanding significance of TRACECA

Established in May 1993 in Brussels, Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA) is an international transport program involving the European Union and 12 member states of the Eastern European, Caucasus, and Central Asian region. 

The program aims at strengthen economic relations, trade, and transport in the regions of the Black Sea basin, South Caucasus and Central Asia.

At the conference, it was agreed to implement a program of a European Union funded technical assistance to develop a transport corridor on a west-east axis from Europe, across the Black Sea, through the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea to Central Asia.

TRACECA members include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. All are signatories to the multilateral agreement, and only Turkmenistan has yet to ratify the agreement.

According to the portal of Iran’s Transport and Urban Development Ministry, the country is eying expansion of TRACECA. The issue was brought up during a meeting between Head of Iran Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization (RMTO) Dariush Amani and TRACECA Secretary General Asset Assavbayev.

According to Amani, the meeting focused on the development of international road transport cooperation with TRACECA member countries and increasing the volume of transit through this corridor.

Amani noted that following the policies of the government, RMTO is implementing new strategies to actively and effectively participate in international forums, regional treaties and join international conventions on transportation.

Various steps have been taken in this regard, including joining the transport of perishable goods (ATP) and the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road (ADR) treaties, participating in the electronic version of the International Carriage of Goods by Road (e-CMR) convention, as well as the successful implementation of the project (E-TIR), the official said.

Amani stated that there are great areas for cooperation between the member states of the TRACECA agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and added, “We are therefore interested in making the best use of the various projects and courses offered or held each year under the framework of the said agreement at the secretariat or in other member states.”

The RMTO head has also called on the Assavbayev to take the necessary measures to eliminate or reduce significant tariff barriers and unconventional tolls imposed by some TRACECA member countries on the international road fleet crossing those countries in order to realize the goals envisioned for the corridor.

According to Amani, during the meeting Assavbayev stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is an active member of TRACECA and the main link between Central Asia and Europe.

“The main purpose of these talks is to develop cooperation and implement TRACECA programs through the Islamic Republic of Iran; In this regard, the main concern is to reduce transportation costs and increase cross-border traffic in order to optimize trade activities,” he said.

United States starts playing regime change mantra in Bangladesh

Jamie Raskin, Member of US House of Representatives, has urged his colleagues to join him in standing with the people of Bangladesh, especially those bravest and most vulnerable. He also urged the Bangladesh government to take immediate action to respect the civil rights and safety of all the people of Bangladesh.

Democratic Party member Jamie Raskin made the call in a session of the US congress on June 07, 2022. His statement has been taken from the congressional record published in the US congress website.

Jamie Raskin is a member of Democratic Party and elected from Maryland. He is also a member of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission.

Earlier, on December 10, 2021, the Human Rights Day, the US imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and its current and former seven officials on charges of violating human rights.

Before that, in August 2021, a discussion of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission expressed concerns on the situation of forced disappearances in Bangladesh.

On June 07, 2022 while speaking in a session presided over by House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, Jamie Raskin said, “I rise today in solidarity with the people of Bangladesh. I want to voice my support for human rights defenders, members of minority groups, and civil society in Bangladesh at this moment when the Bangladeshi government is persisting in threatening the basic human rights and civil liberties of its people.”

He also said the Bangladeshi government, led by Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League, has earned widespread criticism for its deteriorating human rights record, and for its failure to protect the most vulnerable people living in Bangladesh – indigenous people, women, religious minorities, activists, and refugees.

On International Human Rights Day last year, the US Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion, citing how their actions undermine the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.

The United Nations reported that since the sanctions against the RAB officials were announced in December, the Bangladesh government has responded by launching a retaliatory campaign of intimidation and harassment.

The homes of at least 10 relatives of people forcibly disappeared are reported to have been raided at night, and some relatives were forced to sign statements saying that their loved ones had not in fact been forcibly disappeared.

US Congress member further said Amnesty International tracks human rights abuses in Bangladesh and has noted their acceleration during the pandemic. Under the draconian Digital Security Act of 2018, Bangladeshi journalists and other human rights defenders are routinely persecuted for reporting on corruption or criticizing any of the government’s policies.

He also said Covid-19 policies against public gatherings have been used to prevent political meetings, and to quell public protests against the government. Violence against women and indigenous activists has also intensified during the pandemic.

The Bangladeshi government employs a joint task force composed of members of police, military, and border guards called the Rapid Action Battalion, and it has consistently failed to address the excesses of these and other security forces.

The Rapid Action Battalion and other Bangladeshi law enforcement entities are alleged to be responsible for more than 600 disappearances since 2009 and nearly 600 extrajudicial killings since 2018. These incidents reportedly target opposition party members, journalists, and human rights activists.

 

Pakistan: Federal Budget Hoping Against Hope

Certainly concerted efforts have been made to mend relationship with International Monetary Fund (IMF) while preparing Federal Budget for the next financial year.  Intentions may be good but a lot will depend on the commitment and plans to meet the targets. 

Keeping in view the fragile nature of the coalition government, diversity in the mind set of party leaders and high commodity prices, there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.

The Government of Pakistan, in Federal Budget FY23 has set a GDP growth target at 5% and inflation at 11.5%. Many analysts say that the GoP will have to make extra efforts to achieve these targets, mainly because the central bank has already raised policy rate by 675bps another 100bps is anticipated in the name of tightening of monetary and fiscal policies.

Inflation target will also likely be missed as global commodity prices are likely to remain on upward trajectory. The inflation and Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection target are at odds. The PDL collection target has been set at Rs750 billion for FY23. There is hardly a realization that higher PDL collection will result in CPI outages, conversely efforts to contain CPI may result in shortfall in PDL collection.

Other than the aggressive PDL collection targets, which will likely be missed, the GoP has done well to protect masses from further inflationary pressures. Personal income taxes have also been relaxed which will improve purchasing power of the masses and help in face saving of the coalition government.

The tax collection target is a slightly lower than Rs7.3 trillion which was initially being reported in the press, but still represents a 17%YoY jump from estimated collections in FY22. Efforts have been made to make taxation more equitable, with new revenue measures targeting large landowners and the big corporates and retailers. However, little effort has been made to bring agriculture sector in the tax net.

The budget projects a uniform increase in all major taxation heads, including direct taxation, sales taxes, custom duties and FED but the most notable increase comes from the projected Rs750 billion collection of PDL. Given the soaring crude oil prices in international market, analysts see a likely shortfall in collection under this head which will need to be compensated elsewhere.

Similarly, target of GIDC for FY23 is set at Rs200 billion which is also less likely to be achieved. It may be recalled that the GoP had collected a paltry amount of Rs14 billion under this head during 9MFY22. Out of the incremental tax collection targeted for FY23, the new tax measures are estimated to bring in up to Rs375 billion whereas the remaining amount will be generated through growth in Nominal GDP.

The total outlay envisaged in the budget FY23 is Rs9.5 trillion; out of which current expenditures are targeted at Rs8.7 trillion, while the development expenditures are estimated at Rs808 billion. Of that, the Interest payments are estimated at Rs3.95 trillion, up 29%YoY. This constitutes a whopping 45% of current expenses and 42% of the overall expenses.

The defense expenditures are estimated at Rs1.5 trillion – up 11%YoY, which constitutes 18% of current expenses and 16% of overall expenditures.

Federal Pension expense is estimated at Rs530 billion - up 0.7% YoY as against revised estimates of Rs525 billion for FY22. Furthermore, government plans to setup a pension fund which is likely to fund pension expenditures going forward.

Subsidy disbursements are slated to shrink to Rs699 billion for FY23 from Rs1.5 trillion for FY22. To recall, GoP announced a generous package of subsidies on the consumption of fuel and electricity during 2HFY22 which resulted in the slippages under this head.

Analysts expect the total debt servicing cost to exceed the budgeted target of Rs3.1 trillion as the budget document estimates hefty contribution from external sources for budgetary funding. They expect heavier reliance on local sources for budgetary borrowings where the cost of debt will be higher, thus pushing the overall debt financing number even higher.

This article was first published in Eurasia Review

United States the biggest beneficiary of Russia-Ukraine conflict

The ongoing energy disruptions in the wake of the hostilities in the Ukraine have had a dramatic impact on export of LNG from the United States.

In the newly released edition of the Natural Gas Monthly, published by the Energy Information Agency (EIA), part of the US Department of Energy, the changing dynamics of the US export trades are described in detail.

In the publication, the EIA notes, “During the first four months of 2022, the United States exported 74% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, as compared to an average of 34% a year ago.”  It adds, “In 2020 and 2021, Asia had been the main destination for US LNG exports, accounting for almost half of the total exports.” Overall, US LNG exports saw an 18% increase as compared to 2021.

Exports have averaged 11.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the first four months of 2022, aided by the opening of new export facilities. The increase in US LNG exports was driven by additional export capacity at Sabine Pass (Train 6) and at nearby Calcasieu Pass, with a facility that came online in early March. The Sabine Pass terminal loaded nearly 110 LNG cargoes during Q1 2022. Venture Global’s Calcasieu terminal, Louisiana began exporting in March, when five cargoes were loaded - four to Europe and one to Japan.  

The move towards European destinations had already begun before the late February invasion of Ukraine, with the huge inventory drawdowns underway in advance of the winter season. The EIA said, “The United States became the largest LNG supplier to the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2021. They said that LNG imports from the United States to the EU and the UK more than tripled during January to April, 2022, as compared to 2021, averaging 7.3 Bcf/d.”

The EIA pointed out, “During the first four months of 2022, US LNG exports to Asia declined by 51% to 2.3 Bcf/d as compared to 4.6 Bcf/d in 2021.”

Its analysts also alluded to a drop-off in moves to China due to the extremely high Asian LNG prices and pandemic-related lockdowns. China received only six LNG cargoes from the United States in January–April 2022 or just 0.2 Bcf/d as compared to 1.2 Bcf/d in 2021. Japan and South Korea also saw declines.

Another blow to coalition government in Israel

The gyrations of Israel’s coalition government, which still hopes to survive to its first anniversary on June 13, only make sense in its unique context. On Monday, June 6 it lost an important vote, in which more than half of the Knesset members on both sides voted against their own most fundamental beliefs.

It can be termed a desperate effort to either bring down the coalition or to save it. The substance of the legislation was barely more than a pretext, but the opposition smelled blood and was willing to do virtually anything to regain power.

The legislation at issue was a routine bill to maintain Israel’s jurisdiction over the West Bank for another five years, in order to ensure that the half-million Israelis who live there are treated as if they live within the “Green Line,” Israel’s pre-1967 borders. Though, much of the Knesset — including Prime Minister Naftali Bennett — would very much like to permanently annex part or all of the West Bank that is not on the agenda for this government. The bedrock principle is to maintain the status quo with regard to the West Bank and the Palestinians. A fundamental aspect of this policy is the perpetuation of a military regime for West Bank Palestinians and an ordinary life for Israelis living there — and thus the legislation extending it for five more years has always passed with ease.

It’s not that the majority of the MKs disagreed with the legislation. Probably between 80 and 100 of them would have supported it in a free vote, out of the total of 120. However, politics in Israel are now decisively split between supporters and opponents of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which takes precedence even over the left-right divide.

That is the only reason why the current government, unprecedentedly, contains far and mainstream rightists, centrists, leftists, and an Arab party, many of whom would be politically more comfortable with the opposition were it not for the divisive figure of Netanyahu, whose Likud Party and its allies, with a total of 60 members in the evenly divided Knesset, are determined to prove the country ungovernable under the current coalition. The chaos that would theoretically ensue if this legislation isn’t passed, even though they themselves are unashamedly holding it up, is, for them, a perfect example of the government’s inability to accomplish anything.

In fact, it is unlikely that Israeli settlers would spend even one day under the military regime that governs their Palestinian neighbors. They are an important enough constituency that a workaround will probably be found, one way or another. But the process would be chaotic enough that the government’s image, already tarnished, would suffer another heavy blow.

It is not only the right, however, that voted against its basic values. Even more distressed was the left-wing minority in the coalition from the Meretz and Labor parties, whose main political banner is fighting against the occupation. They are ardently against privileges for the settlers, yet cold calculation tells them that anything outside of this coalition would be much worse for them and their values — so they gritted their teeth and voted with the coalition.

There was one exception, Meretz MK Ghaida Rinawi Zoabi, who last month had bolted the coalition but returned after three days, and who voted “no” this time, against the coalition. Meretz MKs know that their constituency wants them to maintain the government as long as possible, but their voters are also asking themselves what the point of voting for a left-wing party is, when it is stuck in a coalition sworn to uphold the occupation. At least some might well switch to the majority-Arab Joint List, which refused to join the coalition, and thus voted against the bill with an absolutely clear conscience.

Perhaps the only more anguished group were the four MKs of the Arab and Islamist United Arab List, known by its Hebrew acronym, Ra’am, which, unprecedentedly for an Arab party, is part of the governing coalition. Three of them absented themselves and the fourth, like Zoabi, voted no. The final vote, including some genuine illnesses, was 52 for the bill and 58 against.

As noted, it is unlikely that this will change things at all for the settlers. Nor was it designated a vote of confidence, by which a loss might have brought down the government. But things can’t go on like this. The coalition was formed last year with 61 votes, but a right-wing MK from the PM’s own party defected in April, leaving the opposition unable to bring the government down, but the coalition unable to govern. Both blocs are desperately trying to encourage more defections — with no success so far. The general assumption is that there may have to be new elections by the end of the year, coming on the heels of four successive elections in less than two years, the first three of which were unable to produce a functional government

Of course that may not settle anything. Recent polls indicate that the country continues to tilt heavily toward the right, but that in a new election the current balance of pro- and anti-Netanyahu seats in the Knesset may well remain the same. Netanyahu’s ongoing trial for fraud and breach of trust is expected to last for at least another year, and he maintains his political power.

Were Netanyahu to disappear from the scene, a government of the mainstream right would almost certainly emerge, perhaps also including some of the “centrists” who dominate this one.

But the former PM is a vigorous 72 and no one is counting him out yet. So, paradoxically, though Netanyahu is loathed by the political left and the center, it is solely his continued presence in politics and his insistence on leading the Likud that has enabled their presence in the current government, unwieldy as it is, and their ability, such as it is, to block possible annexation of the West Bank, among other rightist policies.