US budget will support proxy wars in 2023

The US Senate has passed legislation for the Pentagon budget next year, whopping US$858 billion. The unprecedented package is US$45 billion more than President Joe Biden had requested and is set to have consequences for global peace and security. The bill passed so easily in both chambers tells about the priorities of Washington. 

The bill is the largest budget in the history of the world. It is about three to four times larger than the budget of China whose population last year was reported at 1.412 billion, in comparison to the 331.9 million of the United States.

It is also a conservative budget as it does not include other aspects of the US military such as America’s nuclear weapons program, which is in the region of trillions of dollars. Nor does it include the Central Intelligence Agency. Last year, Congress gave the CIA US$25 billion more than it asked for.

Experts say this huge US military budget supports a network of global occupation. An occupation that has a military presence that includes Europe, parts of East Asia, in particular Japan and South Korea, nations across West Asia, and parts of Africa.

The amount of money being spent on the military has been met with anger among Americans, especially during this period of economic hardship on the backdrop of a global pandemic and war in Ukraine.

Since 2001, conservative estimates suggest the US has spent at least US$20 trillion on war and military adventurism abroad.

This is while the latest US$858 billion bill has no purpose to protect the people of the United States. Nobody is threatening the US mainland which raises the question of why such a large amount is being spent by Washington on its military. Nearly half of the US discretionary budget is spent on the military.

The diversion of these resources could be used for feeding, clothing, educating, building, and treating Americans back home who are desperately in need of such services.

There is a lack of healthcare or enough housing, adequate food and clean water, or a clean environment inside the United States. These issues are rarely mentioned by the US media.

There has been a very extensive propaganda campaign inside the US in support of the US proxy war in Ukraine, which seems to have won. This campaign is being launched by bipartisan parties in Congress.

This is a war that could have easily been avoided and prevented the suffering of the Ukrainian people as well as citizens across Europe.

The huge amount of money in the military is being used to support the declining US worldwide empire. Washington has to resort to keeping this sinking empire in power and in place through militarism expenditure.

The US is slipping in many ways, as far as being the dominant world power when it comes to economics and finance, and diplomacy. But it does claim to be the world’s leading military power, which other countries can depend on.

History has proven that to be false and such a claim by Washington of being the world’s number one military power is not something to be proud of considering its multiple military defeats.

The budget also allocates funds to send more military aid to Ukraine which raises the question if Washington is seeking to prolong the war.

Experts say the aim is to seek regime change in Russia, in particular, after Moscow sent its forces to Syria to help Damascus fight terrorism.

The idea of dismantling the Russian Federation has been openly talked about at the US state department. It is actively holding public forums in various places with groups that the US claims are repressed nationalities in Russia under the context of liberation movements.

Critics say Washington is doing or trying to do what was done to the Soviet Union in 1991.

But critics also say some policymakers at the US State Department are under the illusion or delusional enough to believe that Washington can re-enact the events of 1991 (when the Soviet Union was dissolved) and have the Russian Federation collapse by expanding NATO.

Washington is playing with fire in Ukraine as Russia says if it sends Patriot missile batteries to Kyiv that means American military personnel would be operating the missile systems.

This could pit Russian forces in direct combat with American forces and could potentially expand the war. Should the US military sustain casualties by Russian retaliatory attacks, this would lead to nowhere but a third world war.

It highlights the instability of America’s delusional policy-making. The US invaded Afghanistan but never succeeded in occupying the country in 20 years with no plans on how to withdraw until it fled in a very chaotic nature in similar scenes to Afghanistan.

The massive military policy bill also includes the authorization of up to US$10 billion in military assistance and fast-tracked weapons procurement for Taiwan.

One think tank says it will allow a regional contingency stockpile that will allow the Pentagon to place weapons in Taiwan (which is part of China) for use if a military conflict with Beijing arises.

The US Indo-Pacific Command’s outgoing Admiral Phil Davidson, before leaving office, said the island chain countries have to be prepared for war. In other words, places like Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and others have to prepare for war triggered by the US.

Analysts have interpreted this until today, as meaning that countries surrounding China have to be built up militarily so that if a war occurs with China these countries and regions get hit and suffer casualties as well as destruction.

But Washington needs the same countries and regions to have so much weaponry so they can continue fighting or serve as the basis for the US to continue a war against China until victory.

It highlights how little concern the US has towards those countries and how cold-blooded the US approach to war is.

It also means the United States is disregarding the Shanghai Communique which recognizes on both sides of the strait, everyone recognizes only one China. Now Washington is not treating Taiwan as part of China which is very dangerous.

There has been an ongoing drive to militarize some nations surrounding China, in a similar fashion to Russia.

In Africa, the US is fighting in five or six places in addition to the Ukraine war, the Yemen war, and other civil wars that Washington is waging through various proxies.

The timing of the budget comes at a time when the US national debt stands at around US$31 trillion, which puts into question the thought process of those making decisions in America.

US senators backed the bill overwhelmingly which means there is always consensus on the war in a congress that the US arms companies have the lawmakers their pockets. The military-industrial complex, along with the banks and the oil companies are the only beneficiaries of war.

Unlike healthcare, abortion, gun control, and so many other issues that take so long to pass Congress amid deep divisions between the Republicans and the Democrats, when it comes to militarism, there is no bickering at all.

 

Governor State Bank of Pakistan urges banks to support agriculture sector

Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Jameel Ahmad, while chairing the annual meeting of Agricultural Credit Advisory Committee (ACAC) in Hyderabad referred to the devastation caused by recent floods and observed that climate change is the biggest long-term threat to the country due to its unforeseen impacts.

He added that while the government, businesses and societies are recognizing such threats, we need to take timely actions and allocate required resources for research and development of relevant products and services and capacity building of stakeholders to address these preemptively.

Governor, appreciated efforts of banks in achieving unprecedented agriculture credit disbursement of Rs1.419 trillion in FY22. He noted that for FY23, the target has been fixed at Rs1.819 trillion, in line with

Government’s priority and added that during first five months of FY23, Rs664 billion have already been disbursed.

He added that Prime Minister of Pakistan has announced the Kissan Package, comprising of restructuring and rescheduling of agriculture loans, mark-up waiver for outstanding small loans in flood affected areas, interest-free loans for subsistence and landless farmers and subsidized loans and risk sharing scheme for farm mechanization, besides other support measures.

Governor SBP elaborated that the package will facilitate recovery of farmers from the impact of recent floods and urged banks to implement the package in letter and spirit. He also assured SBP’s full support to the banks wherever needed.

The Governor also underlined that banks have a huge opportunity to exploit the untapped potential of Islamic agriculture financing with respect to SBP’s recent commitment towards transformation of conventional banking to Islamic banking in the next five years. He noted that the share of Islamic financing in agriculture financing is still quite low and urged the industry to work on developing demand driven Islamic financing products, specifically tailored to the requirements of the farming community.

Governor’s inaugural address was followed by a presentation on the performance of banks in agricultural financing. The ACAC deliberated on the new directions in agricultural financing particularly regarding climate smart agriculture practices and the role that financial institutions can play.

Moreover, the champion banks, nominated by the ACAC to spearhead the efforts in underserved areas, presented the progress in their respective assigned underserved provinces or regions.

The ACAC meeting was attended by senior officials of federal and provincial governments, Presidents/CEOs of banks, members of provincial chambers of agriculture, progressive farmers, representatives of regional farming communities and SBP senior officials.

Pakistan: Agriculture Victim of Catastrophes

Agriculture sector growth of 4.4% in FY22 was not only more than 3.5% seen in FY21, it also surpassed the targeted growth of 3.5%. This was largely due to a considerable increase in the output of important crops and the growth in livestock sector.

Within the crop sector, production of important crops increased by 7.2%. Sugarcane, rice and maize exceeded their targets; whereas, wheat fell short of meeting its target by 2.6 million tons. Cotton, despite higher production than FY21, missed its target by 2.2 million bales.

Fertilizer offtake also remained lower than last year, especially in the Rabi season, when the global prices surged significantly and domestic gas shortages emerged in the winter season.

 Despite this performance, the country had to import food products worth US$9.0 billion, while exports amounted to US$5.4 billion during FY22 – causing a deficit of US$3.6 billion in net food exports.

As the world grapples with rising global temperature, changing rainfall patterns and extreme weather events, the spillover of climate change to food security in regions such as Pakistan is becoming a source of concern for various reasons. The challenges to food security will intensify under climate change from floods, low productivity, poor infrastructure, among other factors.

Pakistan is the 8th most affected country by climate change due to rising global temperatures – losing around 0.5% of GDP in 173 climate-related catastrophes from 2000-2019.

In the worst-case scenario, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) estimates average annual losses in Pakistan can be more than 9% of GDP, which would be the highest in South-Asia.

Increasing temperatures will significantly increase the risks to Pakistan’s food security since 77.5% of the agricultural production takes place in arid regions where temperatures are likely to increase more than in other climatic zones.

There are multiple channels through which food security will come under stress in Pakistan: 1) little room to expand area under cultivation (in particular for wheat) in the short to medium term under the prevailing technological constraints, 2) availability of water in the Rabi season acting as a constraint in the canal-irrigated areas of Pakistan, 3) land degradation due to imbalanced used of fertilizer and also waterlogging, 4) despite improving wheat yield in Pakistan over the years, climate change is likely to slow down the progress in the future – for instance global wheat yields are likely to drop by 17% globally due to changing weather patterns, 5) incessant population growth rate is posing resource availability challenges and 6 Increased threat of locusts, especially in the rice-wheat farm systems.

India revises gas procurement rules for fertilizer firms

India has revised the gas procurement policy for fertilizer companies, allowing them to buy about a fifth of their monthly needs through the domestic spot market to help the government cut its subsidy bill, reports Reuters.

The federal government provides financial support for domestic fertilizer sales at rates below the market to insulate farmers from high prices and to contain inflation.

The government expects to cut its fertilizer subsidy bill by up to 240 billion rupees if the fifth of companies' supplies is bought through bilateral contracts or gas exchange, said one of the government officials, who declined to be identified.

India, which imports up to 40% of the 50 million tons of fertilizer annually, has been hit hard by rising prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supplies. Russia is a major fertilizer producer.

Early last month, Fertilizers Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said that due to higher global prices, India's fertilizer subsidy bill for the fiscal year would rise to a record 2.25 trillion rupees from about 1.5 trillion rupees the previous year.

"To help rein in the fertilizer subsidy bill for next fiscal, the fertilizer ministry is trying to rework the mechanism of how gas is procured by fertilizer plants," said a second government official, who also declined to be identified.

Both of the officials are directly involved in the issue but are not authorized to speak to media.

The government has amended 2015 gas procurement guidelines under which fertilizer plants had to procure 80% of their gas through long-term contracts, and the balance through three-month tenders, they said.

"Three-month prices are high as there is lot of padding and hedging by suppliers, more so since there is so much volatility in global gas prices," the first official said.

Under the revision, fertilizer companies will have to buy 40% of their supplies under a "take or pay" rule, in contrast to no minimum purchase required under the guidelines previously, the official added.

The "take and pay" rule led to shares of state-run fertilizer companies, National Fertilizers Ltd, Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd, falling by 4% to 5% after the news, under performing the broader index.

Fertilizer plants can source gas through the Indian Gas Exchange and inter-company contracts. The new rule also allows fertilizer companies to withdraw tenders if they feel the bidding has led to higher-than-expected prices.

Fertilizer plants bought gas at US$38 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for supply in the October-December quarter through a tender. The maximum price quoted in the tender was US$55 while gas was available at the Indian Gas Exchange and bilateral markets for US$15 to US$20 per mmBtu.

Asia's third-largest economy needs crop nutrients to feed its huge agriculture sector, which employs about 60% of the workforce and accounts for 15% of nearly US$3 trillion economy.

OGDCL makes oil and gas discovery in Sindh

Barely three days after it conveyed the discovery of oil and gas reserves from its exploratory well in Sindh, has Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) announced similar development from its exploratory well located in Sindh also.

In a notice sent to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Thursday, the company, one of the largest oil and gas exploration companies in Pakistan, announced, “The Joint Venture of Sinjhoro Block comprising OGDCL as operator (76%), Orient Petroleum (19%) and Government Holdings (GHPL) (5%) has discovered oil and gas from an exploratory well namely Kot Nawab-1 which is located in District Sanghar, Sindh Province”.

The oil and gas exploration company said Kot Nawab-1 was spudded-in on June 03, 2022 as an exploratory well by using OGDCL's in-house expertise.

“The well was drilled down to 3,000 meters. Based on the results of wireline logs interpretation, Drill Stem Test-1 in the Basal Sand has tested 125 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 0.483 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) gas and 400 barrels of water per day (bwpd) through choke size 28/64 at well head flowing pressure (whfp) of 150 pounds per square inch (psi),” read the notice.

The said development is the eleventh discovery in Sinjhoro Block, said OGDCL, which shows the commitment of Sinjhoro JV to exploit the hydrocarbon (HC) potential of the block and aggressive exploration strategy.

“It has opened a new avenue and will positively contribute to mitigating energy demand and supply gap from indigenous resources and will add to the hydrocarbon reserves base of OGDCL and the country,” said the Company announcement.

The discovery comes as Pakistan faces an energy crunch, as its reserves continue to deplete, while the country struggles to obtain fuel cargoes.

Just days ago, OGDCL had announced the discovery of oil and gas from its development cum exploratory well namely Chak-5 Dim South-3, which is also located in District Sanghar, Sindh.

 

Hybrid wheat hitting United States

Global seed maker Syngenta will release a new type of wheat developed with complex cross-breeding techniques in the United States next year, beating out rival companies that are also trying to develop higher yielding wheat at a time of diminishing global grain supplies, reports Reuters.

The hybrid wheat, which combines positive traits from two parent plants, arrives after severe weather slashed grain harvests and the Ukraine war disrupted shipments to hungry importers, sending prices to record highs this spring.

Syngenta, which began working on hybrid wheat in 2010, told Reuters enough seeds will be on the market next year for US farmers to plant about 5,000 to 7,000 acres.

Though a tiny fraction of the nation's plantings, the previously unreported total represents the company's biggest ever release of hybrid wheat. It could open the door for larger seedings in 2024 and beyond, as war and climate change make the world's food supplies increasingly vulnerable.

Growers of corn and other crops like barley have long benefited from hybrid seeds boosting yields. The road to market has been extra slow for wheat because the development process is more costly and difficult, and companies saw lower potential for returns, researchers said.

Benefits of the new crop are still not certain. Three independent seed companies that produced hybrid wheat this year under agreements with Syngenta told Reuters they were unsure the crop will deliver game-changing results for growers. They added that it will take longer to determine how to cost effectively produce the best seeds.

Syngenta's French unit told Reuters the company postponed the launch of a similar type of wheat tested in France following disappointing results. The United States and French hybrids were tailored for local growing conditions, which can include threats from plant diseases and the need to meet quality standards for milling and baking, the company said.

Chinese-owned Syngenta said its US wheat, to be sold under the AgriPro brand, could increase yields by as much as 12% to 15% and make crops more stable, adding that it is attracting strong interest from farmers.

Wheat "is the only major food crop that has not yet benefited from significant technification. Hybrids will change this," said Jon Rich, Syngenta Seeds' head of North America cereals operations.

Abraham Accords: Biggest prank in international diplomacy

It was described as a historic breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations that would strengthen security in West Asia. If anything, it has been a total disaster, perhaps the biggest prank in the history of West Asia.

Initiated under the former administration of US President Donald Trump, Israel was under the illusion that it would easily find new Arab friends under the Abraham Accords.

The regime occupying Palestine was also under the delusion of a new anti-Iran alliance or an Arab-NATO if you like. Some other think tanks and institutions colluded with the idea. The idea that Arabs and Muslims would warm to Israel which has committed war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and murdered tens of thousands of children were unimaginable even at the time. 

Nevertheless, rather than uniting against Israel, Arab countries appear to be uniting with Israel, some institutes said more than two years ago.

The other purpose of the failed initiative was to isolate Palestine, according to US officials who alleged that during Israel’s short honeymoon period, if more Arab states can normalize ties with Israel, the aspect of an occupied Palestinian territory would be accepted among Arabs and Muslims.

At the time, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu lauded the accords as a breakthrough because they separated normalization with Arab states from any peace for the Palestinians.

More than two years later, the states that normalized ties with Israel have gained nothing apart from emboldening Israel to further violate Palestinian rights.

The occupation has killed around 250 Palestinians in year 2022 alone, while injuring tens of thousands of others. The Palestinian death toll in the occupied West Bank in 2022 has already reached its highest total in seven years while armed Palestinian retaliatory operations have also sharply increased.

There has been an increase in raids on occupied Palestinian towns and villages and more settler incursions in the al-Aqsa Mosque compound - Islam’s third holiest site.

It is said that the normalization deals had some strings attached. For example, more support in the form of security or advanced arms sales from the United States or even Israel for the monarchies and states that normalized ties.

The Trump administration formally notified Congress that it intends to sell 50 stealth F-35 fighter jets to the UAE as part of the normalization deals.

Reports then emerged that the UAE informed the US it was suspending discussions to acquire the jets, which was part of a US$23 billion package that also includes drones and other advanced munitions.

The sale of 50 F-35 warplanes made by Lockheed Martin to the UAE had already slowed; reportedly over concerns in Washington over Abu Dhabi's relationship with China, including the use of Huawei 5G technology in the country. Two years later, 50 F-35 warplanes remain grounded in the United States. 

The agreements signed at the White House some two years ago between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco tried to open the door to improve relations with Israel’s neighbors. Instead, it has firmly shut the door in Israel’s face and has seen rising anger against the regime in the region and beyond.

Over the past two years, support for Palestine has increased even more than before the Abraham Accords. Nowhere has this been more evident than at the Qatar World Cup over the past two weeks. Footage has captured Palestinian flags being waved both inside and outside stadiums, national teams carrying the Palestinian flag, and chants at stadiums in support of Palestine.

This is while Israeli settlers and journalists who traveled to Qatar have felt threatened while facing and witnessing firsthand, the hatred of the people of the region towards the regime and its atrocities against women and children. 

In occupied Palestine, Tamar Weiss an Israeli author acknowledged “at the end of the day, there isn’t such a difference compared to before the Abraham Accords, always when there is change, it raises hope. But until now, things have not changed. All that is left is hope.

Meanwhile, we haven’t changed anything in our approach toward the Palestinians. Nothing has changed. As I see it, the feeling of the person on the street is that things are the same.

Despite the propaganda campaign, there has been little tourism between Israel and the states that normalized ties with it. That is because Arabs feel there is no security for them in the Israeli-occupied territories and Israeli settlers feel there is no security for them in the Arab world.

There are some nations in West Asia where the rulers are open to relations with Israel but their people are opposed to such moves. There are also some nations in West Asia where the governments and their people are firmly opposed to any form of normalization.

And there are some nations in West Asia where the governments and their people are not only strongly opposed to any form of normalization but are openly and officially calling for the delivery of weapons to the oppressed Palestinian people.

Zelensky to visit US Capitol in person

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to visit the United States Capitol in person on Wednesday, sources confirmed to The Hill. 

The visit is not set stone, but hinges on security, according to a second source familiar with the planning. The media leaks, the source said, are not helping. 

Sen. Chris Coons confirmed the plans to The Hill. If the visit does materialize, it would likely mark the first time the Ukrainian president has left his country since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, 2022.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent a letter to lawmakers on Tuesday encouraging them to be present for a very special focus on Democracy Wednesday night.

The visit comes as Zelensky, his top military officials and aides have warned that Russia is planning to renew a large-scale ground invasion of Ukraine, and as the country suffers under devastating aerial attacks that have destroyed its energy and electricity infrastructure entering the winter season.

Congress on Tuesday proposed to provide Ukraine with US$45 billion in military, economic and other assistance related to Russia’s war against the country, as part of the omnibus spending package lawmakers hope to pass by the end of the week.

Coons said Zelensky’s visit was a terrific opportunity with Congress set to pass another major package of support for Ukraine.

“That President Zelensky is going to make his first trip outside the country since the war began to speak to us, to thank us and to challenge us to continue to support the Ukrainian people I think is the perfect ending to two years where President Biden has had some landmark successes,” he said.

Zelensky in addresses to Ukrainians has said that this week is extremely important for Ukraine and will be quite active for us in terms of international events and negotiations.

Zelensky addressed Congress virtually in March, urging lawmakers to provide Ukraine with more military support. And Zelensky’s wife, Olena Zelensky, visited the Capitol in person in July to highlight the humanitarian horrors facing the civilian victims of the conflict.

Zelensky’s visit would be a profound political statement, particularly if he appeared in a Capitol that was itself the target of an anti-democratic mob last year.

Pelosi was a target of that violence, and since then, Democrats have warned of the dangers of eroding democratic norms — a message that’s gained resonance since former President Trump entered the 2024 presidential race.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer referred questions about Wednesday’s plans to Pelosi. Asked if he was comfortable with the security situation around Zelensky’s potential visit, Schumer said, that’s up to the security. 

Zelensky, since the Russian invasion began, has emerged as the global symbol of defiance in the face of authoritarianism. And having him on hand this week to promote the importance of preserving democratic traditions would mark a significant capstone for Pelosi, who is soon to step out of leadership after two decades at the top of the party.

Iran claims busting Mossad spy cell

Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence announced that it had dismantled a spy cell run by Israel’s Mossad that was planning to carry out acts of sabotage in the country’s defense industry through security marketing.

The Iranian intelligence forces uncovered a plot by a Mossad espionage network to gather information from Iranian knowledge-based companies that cooperate with Iran’s defense industries, Tasnim reported. 

The Israeli regime’s Mossad spy agency hired data broker Frank Genin, who introduced himself as the chief of a spare parts manufacturer company and was able to contact several Iranian companies and employees, according to Tasnim. 

The Mossad agent then invited his coworkers to a seminar in Malaysia, where he introduced them to another Mossad agent, Hadrien Lavaux.

As a cover-up, Lavaux has been the managing director of Triple A Industries, an Aerospace advanced alloys and composites company that was established in Singapore in 2017. Since then, the company started communicating with Iranian companies that provide carbon fibers, resin, and other metal alloys.

It is worth mentioning that Triple A Industries’ website says that Frank Genin is the chairman of the company, which explains the close cooperation between Genin and Lavaux.

Lavaux’s associates in Iran attended different exhibitions, monitored scientific conferences, and identified the latest needs of Iran’s defense industries.

They later began to identify the chiefs, salespersons and important employees in companies that are active in the field of defense industries. These employees were invited to multiple front conferences abroad, including in Turkey, Hungary, Oman and Georgia, and their trips were fully covered, Press TV reported.

However, Iran’s intelligence forces had kept a close eye on these trips and were able to track down the network.

Earlier, four thugs who had been found guilty of having connections to Israel's Mossad spy agency were put to death early, the Iranian judiciary announced. The executions were carried out earlier this month. 

The four convicted individuals were named as Hossein Ordukhanzadeh, Shahin Imani Mahmoudabad, Milad Ashrafi Atbatan, and Manouchehr Shahbandi Bejandi in the judiciary's announcement.

The four men were detained by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in June (IRGC). They were eventually given the death penalty by a court for both kidnapping and intelligence collaboration with the Zionist regime.

According to an earlier IRGC statement, the squad had received training from Mossad personnel on how to utilize combat weapons for kidnapping operations while being reimbursed with bitcoins.

The capture of the members of the gang who worked with Mossad was revealed by the IRGC public relations department in June.

The group used to kidnap individuals, steal and destroy private and public property, and force their victims to make false confessions.

They were instructed by a Mossad officer in Sweden, the Mizan news agency said.

The gang members abducted victims and collected bitcoin as ransom. They have admitted that they worked with foreign intelligence services and were paid to undermine Iran's security. The gang network was connected to the Israeli spy service by Hossein Ordukhanzadeh, who had been in jail in Greece from 2014-017 for trafficking humans from Turkey to Greece.

 

Blast shuts part of Russia-Ukraine gas pipeline

A blast ripped through a gas pipeline in central Russia, killing three people and disrupting some of the limited amount of Russian gas that is still reaching Europe, reported Reuters on Tuesday.

The flow of gas through a section of the Urengoi-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline that takes gas from Russia's Arctic to Europe via Ukraine had been halted at 1050 GMT, the local officials said on the Telegram messaging app.

Oleg Nikolayev, governor of the Republic of Chuvashia, told state TV that three people, who were carrying out servicing work, died in the accident, while another, a driver, "was in a state of shock".

He said it was unclear when gas supplies via the pipeline could resume, and authorities were trying to work that out.

The Chuvashia regional Emergencies Ministry said an explosion had ripped through the pipeline during planned maintenance work near the village of Kalinino, about 150 km west of the Volga city of Kazan. It said the resulting gas flare had been extinguished.

The pipeline, built in the 1980s, enters Ukraine via the Sudzha metering point, currently the main route for Russian gas to reach Europe.

Europe's gas prices have surged this year after Russia cut exports through its main gas pipeline route into Germany, leaving only pipelines via Ukraine to ship Russian gas to European consumers.

Gazprom said earlier on Tuesday it expected to pump 43 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine through Sudzha in the next 24 hours, a volume in line with recent days.

Forward prices on the Dutch TTF hub rose following the news. The benchmark TTF front-month contract was up 1.10 euros to 108.10 euro per megawatt hour by 1347 GMT. It had traded around 105 euros/MWh earlier in the day.

US to become net exporter of crude oil in 2023

The United States has become a global crude oil exporting power over the last few years, but exports have not exceeded its imports since World War II. That could change next year.

Sales of US crude to other nations are now a record 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), with exports of about 3 million bpd of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel. The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years.

The United States consumes 20 million barrels of crude a day, the most in the world, and its output has never exceeded 13 million bpd. Until recently, the idea that it would be anything but a big crude importer was folly.

Last month, the US government data showed net US crude oil imports fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since record keeping began in 2001. That is down sharply from five years ago, when the United States imported more than 7 million bpd.

Factors changing that equation this year include sanctions hurting Russia's exports of oil and natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine, and Washington's massive release of oil from emergency reserves to combat spiking gasoline prices.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred new demand for US energy and should push oil exports above imports late next year assuming shale output accelerates," said Rohit Rathod, market analyst at energy researcher Vortexa.

To become a net exporter of crude, the United States needs either to boost production or curtail consumption. US petroleum demand is expected to rise 0.7% to 20.51 million bpd next year, meaning production has to be rise.

The United States already produces more oil than any other country in the world including Saudi Arabia and Russia. US shale fields are aging and production growth this year has been sluggish. Overall output should reach a record 12.34 million bpd next year - but only if prices are lucrative enough to encourage oil drillers to pump more.

European refiners have snapped up US grades to offset the loss of Russian oil, and with U.S. crude's deeper discounts to global benchmarks, Asian refiners have stepped up purchases to 1.75 million barrels per day, data analytics firm Kpler said.

Export terminal operators are rushing to boost their capacity to better service the giant tankers that can carry more than 2 million barrels of oil.

"Russia has proven to be an unreliable supplier," said Sean Strawbridge, Chief Executive of the largest US oil export facility, Port of Corpus Christi. "That really creates a wonderful opportunity for American producers and American energy."

Corpus Christi could see a 100,000 bpd increase in exports next year, Strawbridge said, on top of the record shipments of 2.2 million bpd in October.

Analysts said net exports could taper off if numerous countries worldwide fall into a recession, hampering demand, and if further relaxation of sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil boosts that country's shipments.

 

United States and changing dynamics of MENA

The Saudi hosting of Chinese President Xi Jinping, on December 08, underscored the dramatic clarification in 2022 of Saudi Arabia’s multipolar foreign policy, very much mirroring the United Arab Emirates’ decisions over the course of the year.

Global events, particularly the split in Gulf countries’ reactions over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine as well as the October oil production cut determined by the Saudi-dominated OPEC Plus consortium, exacerbated differences with the United States, including on issues ranging from Iran to human rights and civil liberties concerns. Popular perceptions in the United States and in the region as well have characterized these actions as reflecting hostility, especially toward the Biden administration.

In fact, the Gulf’s differences with the US have been on the rise for many years. Frustrations over US policies — ranging from the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the response to the 2011 Arab Spring popular uprisings and including the 2015 agreement with Iran on its nuclear program — have encouraged closer relations with other great powers, namely China and Russia.

Notably, China has emerged as the region’s number one trade and economic partner, while Russia, aided by President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive wooing of Gulf counterparts, has become a key partner in the global energy sector.

At the same time, a new generation of leaders in the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and the UAE’s president, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, came to power more determined to pursue an independent foreign policy course that they considered more reflective of their nation’s leadership in regional and global affairs.

Included in that determination is a willingness to break with Washington on the response to global issues spanning the gamut, from the Ukraine war to Libya to the Horn of Africa.

As President Joe Biden’s visit to the region in July exemplified, this shift by the leading Gulf states to a multipolar policy does not mean necessarily that US relations with the region have become obsolete.

Given the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members’ reliance in the defense and security realm not only on the US defense umbrella but also on US equipment, training, and doctrine for their own militaries, it’s unlikely that the GCC states would willingly move away from a continuation of that relationship. But it does mean that US policymakers can no longer assume that Gulf governments will follow a US lead on setting policy for either regional or global issues.

Going forward, to ensure Gulf cooperation, the US side will need to make the case that its policy preferences are consistent with Gulf leaders’ perspectives on their own national interests. Initiatives like the Joint Working Group on Iran should be increasingly a centerpiece of US engagement with the region.

 

 

 

 

 

Suez Canal Authority inks MoU with Maritime Anti-Corruption Network

According to Seartrade Maritime News, Suez Canal Authority (SCA) and the Maritime Anti-Corruption Network (MACN) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to provide a framework for cooperation.

The Suez Canal is a blackspot for petty corruption involving vessels transiting the waterway and MACN has been building its engagement with SCA. The MoU aims to establish an official communication channel between the Authority and MACN.

Admiral Osama Rabie, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, stressed that the Authority spares no effort to work on the stability and sustainability of global supply chains to facilitate traffic in the Suez Canal amid a package of effective measures that guarantee transparency and impartiality, with the Authority’s readiness to provide all capabilities and overcome all obstacles to activate cooperation with all partners and organizations working in the field of maritime transport.

Cecilia Müller Torbrand, CEO of the Maritime Anti-Corruption Network, thanked the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority Admiral Osama Rabie, and the Authority’s work team, stressing that the Suez Canal occupies a special place in the maritime community, highlighting the need for cooperation to promote effective and safe trade.

The memorandum was signed by the representative of the Suez Canal Authority, Engineer Gamal Abu Al-Khair, Director of the Transit Department.

The Suez Canal links east and west cutting out a lengthy transit via the Cape of Good Hope and over 22,030 ships transited through the canal during the fiscal year 2021-2022.

However, complaints over corruption by users of the waterway are longstanding. In MACN’s report on its first 10 years of reporting between 2011 and 2020 the Suez Canal topped global risk hotspots. A total of 1,795 incidents were reported in the canal during the 10-year period. Most of the incidents were petty corruption with 1,626 involving demands for cigarettes.