Wednesday, 23 June 2021

Settlement reached over ship stuck in Suez Canal

Reportedly, the owner and insurers of the mega container ship that blocked the Suez Canal for six days in March 2021 and disrupted global shipping have reached a settlement with the Egyptian authorities.

The insurer's statement did not specify the amount, but said that once the settlement is formalized, the ship ‑ Ever Given ‑ after nearly three months of haggling, finger-pointing and court hearings - would finally complete its journey through the canal.

"Following extensive discussions with the Suez Canal Authority's negotiating committee over the past few weeks, an agreement in principle between the parties has been reached," said a statement from the insurer UK P & I Club. "Together with the owner and the ship's other insurers, we are now working with the SCA to finalize a signed settlement agreement as soon as possible."

Since the ship was freed in a huge salvage effort, about six days after running aground across the Suez, the canal authority had been locked in an often acrimonious stand-off with the ship's owner and operators over what the authority said it was owed for the incident.

The authority had sought up to US$ one billion in compensation, a figure that included the cost of tugboats, dredgers and crews hired to salvage the ship as well as the loss of revenue while the canal was blocked.

Under the standard terms that shipping companies are required to accept before traversing the Suez Canal, ships are liable for all costs or losses they cause in the canal.

Still, the authority never provided a detailed breakdown of how it had arrived at such a large amount.

The sum does not cover the disruption to worldwide shipping, including delayed cargo and costs to other shipping lines, which experts have said could ultimately soar into the hundreds of millions.

Physically, at least, the Ever Given was long ago declared fit to move on. But until compensation is paid, the ship and its crew will remain impounded in the Great Bitter Lake, a natural body of water that connects the section of the canal where the ship was stuck to the next segment, according to SCA Chairman, Osama Rabie.

An Egyptian court had ordered the ship held until the financial claims were settled, a move that drew protests from the Ever Given's Japanese owner, Shoei Kisen Kaisha.

For more than three months, they faced off in an Egyptian commercial court and in the local press.

The Egyptians insisted that the captain - who, under SCA rules, bore ultimate responsibility for commanding the ship despite the presence of Suez pilots who directed steering and speed - was to blame.

Whatever were the Ever Given's objections, the canal having a reputation for demanding large liability sums from ship-owners, enjoyed a strong hand in the negotiations.

The months of negotiations left the ship's crew of 25 Indian seafarers stuck in the middle, unable to leave the Ever Given until the bargaining ends, but for a few cases in which the Egyptian authorities granted crew members' requests to leave after their contracts ended or for family reasons.

India-US begin joint drills in Indian Ocean

According to Hindustan Times, Indian Air Force and Navy on Wednesday kicked off two-day drills with the US Navy in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) amid China’s attempts to expand its presence in the strategic region. The exercise will also involve the US Navy’s Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG).

The IAF takes part in the exercise with its Jaguar fighters, Sukhoi-30 MKIs, Phalcon AWACS (airborne warning and control system) aircraft, Netra AEW&C (airborne early warning and control) aircraft, and Il-78 mid-air refuellers. The US Navy’s air assets will include F-18 jets and E-2C Hawkeye AEW&C aircraft, the officials said.

Indian warships INS Kochi and Teg along with P-8I submarine hunter planes and MiG-29K aircraft are also taking part in the exercise.

The exercise comes a week after Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh called for an open and inclusive order in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, with respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries. Singh reiterated New Delhi’s support to freedom of navigation, over-flight and unimpeded commerce for all in international waters in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

IAF spokesperson Wing Commander Ashish Moghe said the IAF has extensive experience in maritime operations in the IOR. “This has been consolidated over the years by the conduct of exercises from the country’s island territories…This engagement with the US CSG offers one more opportunity to undertake joint operations in the maritime domain with a friendly foreign power.”

He said the exercise will focus on multiple areas including enhancing aspects of interoperability, nuances of international integrated maritime search and rescue operations, and exchange of best practices in the maritime airpower domain.

The navy said in a statement that the Indian warships along with aircraft from the Indian Navy and IAF will be engaged in joint multi-domain operations with the CSG comprising Nimitz-class aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh. “High tempo operations during the exercise will include advanced air defence exercises, cross-deck helicopter operations, and anti-submarine exercises. The participating forces will endeavour to hone their war-fighting skills and enhance their interoperability as an integrated force to promote peace, security, and stability in the maritime domain.”

The Indian Navy is carrying out round-the-clock surveillance in the IOR, which, it believes, China will inevitably try to enter in its quest to become a global power, just as it has laid claim to large portions of the disputed South China Sea.

Tuesday, 22 June 2021

Prospects of US joining JCPOA getting bleaker

According to an AP report, Biden administration officials are insisting that the election of a hard-liner as Iran’s president won’t affect reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. But, there are signs that prospects of concluding a deal are getting bleaker.

Optimism that a deal was imminent faded as the talks ended on Sunday without tangible indications of significant progress. On Monday, in his first public comments since the vote, incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi rejected a key Biden goal of expanding on the nuclear deal if negotiators are able to salvage the old one.

Raisi is likely to raise the Iran’s demands for sanctions relief in return for Iranian compliance with the deal, as he himself is already subject to US human rights penalties.

“I don’t envy the Biden team,” said Karim Sadjapour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has advised multiple US administrations on Iran. “I think the administration now has a heightened sense of urgency to revise the deal before Raisi and a new hard-line team is inaugurated.”

President Joe Biden and his team have made the US return to the deal one of their top foreign policy priorities. The deal was one of President Barack Obama’s signature achievements; one that aides now serving in the Biden administration had helped negotiate and that Donald Trump repudiated and tried to dismantle as president.

Despite Raisi’s impending presidency, Biden administration officials insist prospects for reaching an agreement are unaltered. They argue that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who signed off the 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will make the final decision, regardless of who is president.

“The president’s view and our view is that the decision leader is the supreme leader,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. “That was the case before the election; it’s the case today; it will be the case probably moving forward.”

“Iran will have, we expect, the same supreme leader in August as it will have today, as it had before the elections, as it had in 2015 when the JCPOA was consummated for the first time,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

But hopes for substantial progress fizzled last week ahead of the Iranian election amid a flurry of speculation about the impact of the vote on the indirect talks between Iran and the US in Vienna. Diplomats and others familiar with the talks had thought the last round, the sixth, could produce at least a tangible result even if it fell short of a full deal.

Now, that round has ended and a seventh round has yet to be scheduled as Raisi, Iran’s conservative judiciary chief, brandished an absolute rejection of anything more than Iran’s bare minimum compliance with the 2015 agreement in exchange for a lifting all of US sanctions.

In his public comments Monday, Raisi brushed aside US calls for Iran to agree to follow-on discussions on expanding the initial nuclear deal to include its ballistic missile program and its support for regional groups that the US designates terrorist organizations.

“It’s nonnegotiable,” Raisi said’

Iran experts agree it will be a tough, if not impossible, for Biden to get Iran to go beyond the nuclear agreement.

“I’m very skeptical that once we’ve lifted the sanctions to get them to return they’ll feel any incentive to come back and negotiate more concessions,” Sadjapour said. “And, if we coerce them with sanctions to come back to the table, they’ll argue that we’ve abrogated our end of the nuclear deal again.”

Critics of the nuclear deal maintain that the administration has already given away too much in exchange for too little by signaling its desire to repudiate Trump’s repudiation of the nuclear deal. And, they say that even if Iran agrees to some sort of additional talks, the pledge will be meaningless.

“It was pretty obvious that the Iranians were never going to negotiate in good faith beyond the JCPOA,” said Rich Goldberg, a Trump administration National Security Council official who has espoused a hard line on Iran.

“But now, even if the administration gets some sort of face-saving language from the Iranians about future talks, Raisi has already said they’re not interested. The jig is up,” he said. “You can’t come back to a skeptical Congress, allies and deal opponents and say the promise means anything it means when Raisi has already said it doesn’t.”

But administration officials are adamant that as good as the nuclear deal is, it is insufficient and must be improved on.

“We do see a return to compliance as necessary but insufficient, but we also do see a return to compliance as enabling us to take on those other issues diplomatically,” Price said, adding that the point had been made clear to the Iranians “in no uncertain terms.”

An additional complication is that Raisi will become the first serving Iranian president sanctioned by the US government even before entering office, in part over his time as the head of Iran’s internationally criticized judiciary — a situation that could complicate state visits and speeches at international forums such as the United Nations.

Psaki and Price both said that the US will continue to hold Raisi accountable for human rights violations for which he was sanctioned by the Trump administration.

Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and set about a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that included re-instating all the sanctions eased under the agreement along with adding a host of new ones.

Israel’s warning to United States or declaration of war against Iran

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi warned the United States officials against rejoining the Iranian nuclear deal. He is visiting Washington to discuss the threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear program.

“The Chief of the General Staff emphasized the shortcomings of the current nuclear agreement, which will allow Iran to make significant progress related to centrifuges as well as to substantially enhance the amount and quality of enriched matter over the next few years, also emphasizing the lack of supervision in terms of nuclear proliferation,” the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said in a statement.

Israel’s top military officer explained the threat created by returning to the original nuclear agreement and emphasized that all measures should be taken to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities.

Kohavi is in Washington on a four-day visit and is holding meetings with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Head of the US Central Command Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, and Head of the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) Gen. Richard Clark.

In light of the close alliance between Israel and the United States, it is rare for a chief of staff to make public remarks about political issues or to criticize the foreign policies of allies.

But Kohavi has made it clear that he views the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as dangerous, saying in January that he has directed the IDF to prepare fresh operational plans to strike Iran in order to stop its nuclear program if necessary.

“Iran can decide that it wants to advance to a bomb, either covertly or in a provocative way. In light of this basic analysis, I have ordered the IDF to prepare a number of operational plans, in addition to the existing ones. We are studying these plans and we will develop them over the next year,” Kohavi said in a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies think tank’s annual conference.

 “The government will of course be the one to decide if they should be used. But these plans must be on the table, in existence and trained for,” he added.

During his trip, which is his first as Israel’s top military officer, he is meeting with his American counterparts to discuss common security challenges in the region, including issues related to the threat posed by the Iranian nuclear project, Tehran’s attempt to entrench itself in the Middle East, Hezbollah’s attempts to strengthen itself and the consequences of the Lebanese terror group’s precision missile project.

The leaders also discussed the challenges and related responses in the Palestinian arena, focusing on the Gaza Strip. Kohavi also presented the military’s main takeaways from Operation Guardian of the Walls.

His visit to Washington that was scheduled to take place in April was postponed due to the fighting with Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip. 

Monday, 21 June 2021

Bennett defeats first motions of no-confidence

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Monday successfully defeated the opposition’s first motions of no-confidence by votes of 60-49 and 59-50. Former Likud minister Ophir Akunis introduced the motions, calling the new government illegitimate because its ruling party, Yamina, has only six loyal MKs.

The government’s liaison to the Knesset, Ze’ev Elkin (New Hope), responded that opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu had offered a rotation as prime minister to Bennett and to New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar, indicating that it was legitimate for Netanyahu.

By contrast, Netanyahu did not offer such a rotation to anyone else in Likud, despite his own party winning 30 seats, indicating that it was not legitimate for the former prime minister, he said.

“I understand your frustration with losing power, which was unnecessary because Likud could have formed a government if Netanyahu would have agreed to stand aside,” Elkin told former Likud ministers.

In response, Shas leader Arye Deri said at Sa’ar’s request, Netanyahu had agreed to key Likud figures becoming prime minister, including MKs Yariv Levin, Yuval Steinitz and Avi Dichter, and Netanyahu agreed to obtain the approval of the Likud central committee, but Bennett did not agree.

“The cat is out of the bag,” he said. “Naftali Bennett torpedoed it.”

Religious Services Minister Matan Kahana (Yamina) responded: “That is a lie.”

Elkin accused Netanyahu of spending the Likud’s funds to pay protesters to come to his home late at night and frighten his five-year-old daughter.

“In your eyes, whatever serves you is always legitimate, and what removes you from power is always illegitimate,” he told Netanyahu.

Netanyahu responded to his former close confidant sarcastically by saying, “Everyone knows how much the previous speaker cares about the state and how much he takes care of himself.”

The new “government is dangerous, and that is why we will topple it faster than people think,” he said.

Another test of the government is set to take place next week when votes will be held on extending an ordinance that prevents family reunification of Palestinians and Arab-Israelis.

Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich on Monday said his party would not be voting with the coalition to extend the ordinance.

“We won’t be the ones plugging holes for this coalition or those who save it from itself,” he said.

The coalition needs the support of right-wing opposition MKs to pass the ordinance because it is opposed by the Ra’am (United Arab List) Party, as well as Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Frej and Mossi Raz of Meretz.

Bennett was set to join a meeting of Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked (Yamina) and Ra’am head Mansour Abbas late Monday in an effort to solve the problem.

At a Likud faction meeting on Monday, it was decided that Likud MKs would vote against the law preventing the unification of Palestinian families.

Iranian President-elect announces his priorities

Ebrahim Raisi who overwhelmingly won Iranian presidential election on 18th June 2021 held a press conference on Monday to elaborate on his major domestic and foreign policy priorities.

In his preliminary remarks, the president-elect praised participation of people in the elections, calling it an epic. He said it sent an important message to the entire world.

He said people high turnout in the election took place despite the coronavirus pandemic, propaganda by the enemies, and economic hardship.

Following are excerpts from his remarks:

  • The message of the election was to administer justice and fight corruption.  
  • My administration will remain loyal to the promises that I have made during the presidential campaigns. 
  • To improve the economic condition of the people.
  • To administer a law-abiding and effective managerial system.
  • I also thank services by the successive governments since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, in certain cases due to mismanagement Iran is facing problems and is lagging behind.
  • The world, particularly the West, should realize that the situation in Iran has changed through the people’s vote.
  • Our foreign policy will not begin with the JCPOA and will not end with the JCPOA.
  • We will seek a balanced relationship with the outside world. 
  • National interests will be considered in negotiations with foreigners.
  • Negotiations should produce results. 
  • The United States should have realized that maximum pressure on Iran has been fruitless.
  • The JCPOA has been violated by the United States and the Europeans have also not abided by their commitments under the multilateral agreement.
  • Iran wants Europeans to commit themselves to their obligations. 
  • Liquidity should be managed. It should be directed toward the production sector. 
  • We will make production enticing.
  • And we also should administer an effective tax system and make certain business activities like those in gold market and housing unattractive.
  • All sanctions must be lifted and their removal must be verified. America must abide by its commitments under the nuclear agreement.
  • As a lawyer I defend human rights 
  • As a lawyer I have always defended the people’s rights. I have defended human rights.
  • Those who have violated the rights of people in the world must be held answerable.
  • Those who have defended the rights of the people should be praised. 
  • Even today I consider myself tasked to defend the right of all people all around the world. 
  • This is my honor as prosecutor general to defend the rights and welfare of the people.
  • Bident must lift all sanctions.
  • Biden must prove his sincerity by lifting all sanctions.
  • The Iranian people don’t have a good memory about the JCPOA.
  • The Iranian missile program is not subject for negotiations. Why does the US which has not honored its commitments under the JCPOA is talking about other issues? 
  • Certain Western countries are now home to assassinators of Ayatollah Mohammad Hossein Beheshti and prime minister Mohammad Ali Rajaei.
  • The West must now be held accountable that why has it been hosting murders of Ayatollah Beheshti.
  • Professionalism, revolutionary spirit, have the will to fight corruption will be the chief criterion for forming the government.
  • We definitely pursue for implementation of comprehensive partnership with China
  • We have a good relationship with China since the Islamic Revolution. There is great potential for cooperation. 
  • Implementing the (25-year) comprehensive partnership will definitely be on the agenda.
  • The Islamic Republic has been insisting on referendum for settling the Palestine conflict.
  • Iran has always been defender of the oppressed people including the Palestinians and this has been stated in the constitution and being insisted on by Imam Khomeini and Leader of the Islamic Revolution.
  • Saudis and it allies should stop war on Yemen. This war should be stopped immediately. Yemen should be managed by the Yemenis themselves.
  • Iran, Saudi Arabia can reopen embassies. 
  • Our priority is relations with neighbors. 
  • In view of the Islamic Republic reopening embassies between Iran and Saudi Arabia is something that can happen.
  • There should be no problem for relations between the two countries (Iran and Saudi Arabia) as well as dialogue with all regional countries 
  • Investment by Iranians abroad is a priority.
  • Helping Iranians return to the country is also on the agenda.
  • The entrance of Iranians to the country should be facilitated.
  • Investment by the Iranians living abroad in the country is highly prioritized. 
  • Safety is for all and all investors should know that today the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the safest places for investment and the government guarantees it.
  • Talented persons can propose their views on better management of the country and a mechanism has been devised in which experts can present their ideas.


Sunday, 20 June 2021

Taliban seizes control of 16 districts in Afghanistan

According to western media, Taliban continue to drive Afghan security forces from various districts throughout the country. Afghan forces are either surrendering or withdrawing from key administrative centers and security outposts. 

Taliban have taken over sixteen districts in 9 provinces, the latest being Kunduz City. Taliban currently controls 118 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, while 190 districts are contested.

Afghan security forces have failed in halting the onslaught, particularly in the north, where Taliban control pace of movement and fighting. Afghan military and police units are either abandoning or surrendering. Afghan forces have only been able to retake control of three districts since May 1.

Taliban offensive in the north is especially troubling, as these provinces are home to many important Afghan government power brokers. There are growing fears that entire northern areas may be taken over of Taliban.

If northern areas go in to Taliban control, the Afghan government will be confined to south and east.

In Kunduz province, the Taliban “seized the [Kunduz City’s entrance before dispersing throughout its neighborhoods,” while fighting has been reported throughout the city, The New York Times reported.

Taliban overran Kunduz City in 2015 and 2016, and held it for a short period of time, before the US airpower and Special Forces played a key role in helping the Afghan military ejecting Taliban from the city. This weekend, Taliban also captured the district of Dasht-i-Archi in Kunduz province.

In one northern province, Takhar, the Taliban seized 8 districts – Baharak, Bangi, Chal, Hazar Somch, Khwaja Bahawuddin, Khuwaja Ghar, Namak Ab, and Yangi Qala – over the course of two days. Fighting has been reported outside of Taloqan, Takhar’s provincial capital, as well as Maimana, the capital of the troubled Faryab province.

In Takhar’s district of Baharak, “Around 110 members of police, army & members of local uprisings surrendered to Taliban” after being surrounded for three days, Bilal Sawary, an independent Afghan journalist reported.

Taliban executed the district head of the National Directorate of Security, which is hated by Taliban, and the “commander of local uprisings,” or tribal fighters that organize to fight the jihadists. In Khwaja Bahauddin district, Taliban overran “a large base and all its facilities,” according to Tariq Ghazniwal, a local Afghan journalist.

Also in northern Afghanistan, the Taliban took control of Chahar Bolak district in Balkh province, Dahan-e-Ghori in Baghlan province, Dara-e-Suf Bala in Samangan province, and Faizabad and Khanaqa in Jawzjan province.

In eastern Afghanistan, the Taliban seized Kharwar in Logar province, and in the southwest, the Taliban took Khash Rod in Nimroz.

Taliban have seized control of more than 50 districts since the US announced in mid-April to withdraw from Afghanistan by 11th September 2021. The US military is no longer providing air support for Afghan forces as it focuses its efforts on withdrawing from the country.

Many of the districts that have been taken over by Taliban were previously contested, however, a handful of the districts were previously under Afghan government control (including three districts this weekend).

Saturday, 19 June 2021

World leaders congratulate Ebrahim Raisi


World reacts to election of Iran’s new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi. While many leaders lined up to congratulate Raisi on his victory, some groups criticized his human rights record.

Iran

Outgoing President Rouhani visited Raisi at his office to congratulate him. “We will stand by and cooperate fully with the president-elect for the next 45 days, when the new government takes charge (in early August),” state media quoted Rouhani as saying.

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Raisi and expressed hopes for “further development of a constructive bilateral cooperation”, according to RIA news agency citing a press officer at the Russian embassy in Tehran.

Pakistan

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said he looked forward to working with Raisi towards “further strengthening” of fraternal ties between Pakistan and Iran for “regional peace, progress and prosperity”.

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Raisi on his victory, saying he believed cooperation between the two neighbors would become stronger during Raisi’s term. “Stating my belief that cooperation between our two countries will strengthen during your presidency, I am ready to work together with you,” Erdogan said in a letter sent to Raisi.

Syria

Assad congratulated Raisi on his victory and said he was keen to work with the new president to strengthen ties between the two countries, a statement from the Syrian presidency said.

Iraq

“I extend my sincere congratulations and blessings on the occasion of your [Raisi’s] election as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Iraq’s President Barham Salih said. “We in Iraq look forward to strengthening our solid relations with our neighbor Iran and its people.”

Hamas

“We congratulate the Islamic Republic of Iran for the success of the democratic process, the holding of the presidential election and the victory of Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s president,” Hazem Qassem, Hamas spokesman in Gaza, said in a statement.

“We wish the Islamic Republic of Iran progress and prosperity. Iran has always been a fundamental and a real supporter of the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian resistance.”

United Arab Emirates

“We wish for the Islamic Republic, and for our bilateral relations, stability, continuity and prosperity,” Vice-President and de facto Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid said in a statement tweeted by Dubai’s media office.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed also sent a message of congratulations to Raisi, state news agency WAM reported.

Human Rights Watch

Raisi’s path to presidency was through “repression and an unfair election”, Michael Page, deputy Middle East director at HRW, said in a statement.

“As head of Iran’s repressive judiciary, Raisi oversaw some of the most heinous crimes in Iran’s recent history, which deserve investigation and accountability rather than election to high office.”

Amnesty International

Head of human rights group Agnes Callamard said Raisi’s election win called for Raisi to be investigated for “crimes against humanity”.

“That Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran,” she posted on Twitter.

“We continue to call for Ebrahim Raisi to be investigated for his involvement in past and ongoing crimes under international law, including by states that exercise universal jurisdiction.”

Ebrahim Raisi Elected New President of Iran

The moderate candidate in Iran's presidential election has conceded loss in the country's presidential race to the country's hard-line judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi.

Former Central Bank chief Abdolnasser Hemmati wrote on Instagram to judiciary chief Raisi early on Saturday.

"I hope your administration provides causes for pride for the Islamic Republic of Iran, improves the economy and life with comfort and welfare for the great nation of Iran."

According to preliminary vote count, Raisi won 62 percent or 17.8 million votes, to Rezaei's 3.3 million and Hemmati's 2.4 million, said Jamal Orf, the head of Iran's Interior Ministry election headquarters.

The fourth candidate, Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi received around one million votes, Orf said.

The official said more than 28 million Iranians out of 59 million eligible voters had cast ballots.

The initial results announced also appeared to show the race had the country's lowest turnout of any vote since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, the vote had no international observers to monitor the election in line with past years.

Vote count was still underway, but reports suggest Raeisi could be winning by a big margin.

Iran's moderate President Hassan Rouhani announced his successor had been elected, but did not name the widely expected victor.

"I congratulate the people on their choice," said Rouhani after Friday's vote as other candidates also congratulated Raisi. "My official congratulations will come later, but we know who got enough votes in this election and who is elected today by the people."

Raisi did not immediately acknowledge Hemmati's concession, nor that of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei, who also conceded the loss.

Mohsen Rezaei's concession in a post on Twitter came as Iran's outgoing President Hassan Rouhani also acknowledged the winner in the country's vote Friday was "clear," though he didn't immediately name judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi. 

On Twitter, Rezaei praised Khamenei and the Iranian people for taking part in the vote.

"God willing, the decisive election of my esteemed brother, Ayatollah Dr. Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, promises the establishment of a strong and popular government to solve the country's problems," Rezaei wrote.

The election on Friday was dominated by Raisi, a protégé of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the disqualification of the strongest competitors who could have challenged him in the vote. 

As night fell Friday, turnout appeared far lower than in Iran’s last presidential election in 2017. 

Friday, 18 June 2021

United States seen as a bigger threat to democracy than Russia or China

The United States faces an uphill task presenting itself as the chief guardian of global democracy. A recent poll shows that around the world people consider it a bigger threat to democracy as compared to Russia and China.

The findings come in a poll commissioned by the Alliance of Democracies Foundation among 50,000 respondents in 53 countries.

The survey was carried out by the Latana polling company between February and April. Therefore, hangover effect of Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ foreign policy may linger in the findings.

In perhaps the most startling finding, nearly half (44%) of respondents in the 53 countries surveyed are concerned that the US threatens democracy in their country; fear of Chinese influence is by contrast 38%, and fear of Russian influence is lowest at 28%.

The findings may in part reflect views on US comparative power, but they show neither the US, nor the G7, can simply assume the mantle of defenders of democracy.

Since last year, the perception of US influence as a threat to democracy around the world has increased significantly. This increase is particularly high in Germany and China.

The countries still overwhelmingly negative about US influence are Russia and China, followed by European democracies.

Around 81% of people around the world say it is important to have democracy in their country. Only a little more than half (53%) say their country is actually democratic today – even in democracies.

In almost every country surveyed save Saudi Arabia and Egypt limits to free speech are seen as less of a threat to democracy than inequality.

Half of the people surveyed (48%) say the power of big tech companies, as opposed to the simple existence of social media, is a threat to democracy in their country.

Among democracies, the US is the most concerned about big tech (62%), but wariness is growing in many countries compared with last year, reflected in broad support for greater regulation of social media.

Voters in Norway, Switzerland and Sweden are most confident their country is democratic, but so are the Chinese, where 71% agree that China has the right amount of democracy. In Russia only 33% think their country is democratic.

The findings will also make disturbing reading for the eastern European democracies such as Hungary where only 31% of voters think their country is democratic – on a par with findings in Nigeria, Iran, Poland and Venezuela.

This poll shows that democracy is still alive in people’s hearts and minds. They want to see their countries become more democratic.

The positive support for an Alliance of Democracies, whether the UK’s D10 initiative or President Biden’s Summit for Democracy, shows that people want more cooperation to push back against the autocrats.

Iranians casting votes to elect new president

Iranian Presidential election being held on 18th June 2021, highlight a transition of society. Whatever may be the outcome the hostility between United States and Iran must be ended. While older generation may still be with hardliners, the younger generation ‑ born and grown under economic sanctions ‑ wants a change. It would be good if the process of easing begins now or the rebel groups may start seeking foreign help.

Nearly 60 million eligible voters in Iran will decide the fate of four candidates to succeed President Hassan Rouhani. Iranians voted in a presidential election on Friday amid concerns over a low turnout with the conservative head of the judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, widely seen as the front-runner.

“If elected, Raisi will be the first Iranian president in recent memory to have not only been sanctioned before he has taken office, but potentially sanctioned while being in office,” said analyst Jason Brodsky.

Raisi – who like his political patron the supreme leader is an implacable critic of the West – is under US sanctions for alleged involvement in executions of political prisoners decades ago.

With uncertainty surrounding Iran’s efforts to revive its 2015 nuclear deal and growing poverty at home after years of United States sanctions, the turnout for the voters is being portrayed by some analysts as a referendum on the current leadership’s handling of an array of crises. Voter enthusiasm was dampened by the disqualification of many candidates and the deep economic malaise

Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, reporting from Tehran, said there is lot of support behind Raisi. “The general public has one thing on their mind that they want some change from the moderate and reformist government they have seen over the past eight years,” she said.

“There is a sense that the economic situation in the country is not going to change any time soon. So they are hoping Raisi will bring some kind of change.”

Iranian opposition groups abroad and some dissidents at home have urged a boycott of the vote they see as an engineered victory for Raisi.

A win for Raisi would confirm the political demise of pragmatist politicians such as Rouhani, weakened by the US decision to quit the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions in a move that stifled rapprochement with the West.

But it would not disrupt Iran’s bid to revive the agreement and break free of tough oil and financial sanctions, Iranian officials say, with the country’s ruling elite aware their political fortunes rely on tackling worsening economic hardship.

Tensions remain high with both the United States and Israel, which is believed to have carried out a series of attacks targeting Iranian nuclear sites and assassinating the scientist who created its military atomic program decades earlier.

United States entrusts Kabul airport security to Turkey

According to Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser, President Joe Biden and President Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to assign Turkey a lead role in maintaining security of Kabul airport after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

It is suspected that since Pakistan is not ready to provide any airbase to United States, a cover up is being created for the use of Kabul airport for the US planes/drones. This may offend those Afghans who enjoy cordial relationship with Islamabad and want the United States to end its occupation of Afghanistan at the earliest.

While the two leaders were prompt in agreeing to a new role for Turkey, they were not able to resolve the long-standing issue of Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems, Sullivan said, a bitter dispute that strained ties between the Nato allies. He added that dialogue on the issue would continue.

“The clear commitment by the leaders established that Turkey would play a lead role in securing Hamid Karzai International Airport and the two countries are now working to work out the modalities.

The United States takes seriously the concern over the Taliban militia potentially attacking the international missions in Afgha­nistan, he said.

It seems Turkey has accepted the role to ease its relationship with the United States. Analysts are of the view that many of the acts/policies of Turkey are contradictory, which often fail in attaining the ultimate objective.

While Tayyip Erdogan is very vocal against Israel, he has not been able to do what a tiny country like Maldives did, suspending diplomatic relationship with Israel. This is likely to become a big thorn in Turkey-Taliban relationship.

It is no secret that Taliban enjoy good relations with Saudi Arabia, therefore, a proxy war may break out in Kabul. Saudi-Turkish relations have severed after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.

Thursday, 17 June 2021

Time to hold election for Palestinian Authority

Since elections have been held in Syria, a new government has been installed in Israel and efforts for normalization of Israel’s relationship with Muslim countries is expected to continue, the stigma of cancellation of elections in the occupied territories, must be removed at the earliest.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas had cancelled the first elections to be held in the occupied Palestinian territories since 2006, blaming Israel for not allowing the polls to include East Jerusalem.

Israel is unlikely to grant that permission because it annexed East Jerusalem after winning the 1967 war and views the city as its undivided capital. Allowing Palestinian elections in East Jerusalem would weaken its claim.

Israeli officials say that the delay could lead to renewed conflict with Hamas, considered terrorists by the Jewish state, the European Union and the United States.

The elections were due to take place in late-May but Abbas announced cancellation, which is viewed as an attempt to prolong his rule.

Infighting within Fatah has produced several popular rivals vying to replace the 85-year-old leader, viewed by the overwhelmingly young Palestinian population as corrupt and ineffective.

The decision has disappointed young Palestinians, who have been repeatedly denied a chance to choose a new leadership, and will be quietly welcomed by the US and Israel, which viewed the elections as a chance for Hamas to further consolidate power.

Hamas immediately termed the delay as a coup.  The group’s surprise victory in the 2006 elections led to months of conflict with Fatah — including a short-lived civil war that saw Hamas take control of the Gaza Strip, triggering an Israeli blockade that continues to this day.

The EU-backed elections had been designed to renew a democratic mandate for the increasingly authoritarian Abbas, who won a four-year term as president in 2005, in the hopes of positioning him for a round of peace talks being considered by the Biden administration.