USIP highlights Implications of Iranian attack on US Policy

While the US policymakers and the broader policy community are accustomed to Iranian aggression — mostly through proxies — across the Middle East, direct Iranian military strikes in Pakistan are a novel development for them.

The strikes will only reinforce US leaders’ perception of Iran as a reckless actor.

In line with that, the State Department issued a statement condemning Iran’s actions against Pakistan — and disputed the Iranian charge against Pakistan by calling Iran the “leading funder” of terrorism and instability in the region.

As for a Pakistan policy perspective, it is in United States’ interest that there is no further regional flare-up involving Pakistan which destabilizes the country at a time of economic and political stress.

Policymakers will also hope for a de-escalation to not jeopardize, or at least not disrupt, ongoing counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan on Afghanistan.

Beyond the immediate standoff, some policymakers and US Central Command, which maintains strong ties with Pakistan, may see synergies with a Pakistan feeling threatened by Iran to balance Iranian military and proxy power in the region.

Iran-Pakistan tensions are not endemic, with incentives on both sides to maintain a functional relationship.

This basic diagnosis of Iran-Pakistan relations, combined with the United States’ Indo-Pacific priorities and uncertainty in Pakistan about working with the United States on Middle East issues, will put a ceiling on any cooperative agenda around nefarious Iranian activities in the region.

USIP rationale Iran attacked Pakistan

In a surprising turn on January 16, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, claiming it had hit two strongholds of anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). Many Pakistanis are perplexed and just could not find the reasons for Iranian assault. Following is the logic offered by United States Institute of Peace (USIP) behind Iranian attack on Pakistan.

Iran’s calculus remains difficult to know — and Pakistan and other countries are left wondering what prompted Iran to take such a radical step against a more militarily powerful neighbor.

Iran’s logic of striking Pakistan remains opaque. On the face of it, Iran claims it struck terrorist cells of the Jaish al-Adl, which Iran says has a haven in Pakistan and implying also that the group has links to Israel.

Jaish al-Adl is a US-designated terrorist group fighting the Iranian regime with the goal of securing political and economic rights for the ethnic Baluch and Sunni in Iran.

On December 15th of last year, the group carried out an attack on a police station in the town of Rask, in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, killing several police officers.

Iranian logic that a preemptive strike against Jaish al-Adl is in response to the Rask attack doesn’t fully explain the attack.

Jaish al-Adl enjoying a haven in Pakistan with purported help from the external actors has been a long-standing Iranian complaint, but Iran has not struck Pakistan in cross-border raids before and hasn’t indicated an intent to undertake cross-border strikes of late.

There are two other possibilities for why Iran may have targeted Pakistan.

First, Iran may well be seeking to broaden the ongoing regional conflict and decided to draw Pakistan into the mix. If this is driving Iran, we may see more Iranian action in Pakistan.

Second, Iran may be attempting to force regional countries, including Pakistan, to rethink their preexisting alignment with the United States and to not offer further help that might allow the United States to counter Iran or its proxies in the region.

USIP view of Pak Iran relations

In a surprising turn on January 16, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, claiming it had hit two strongholds of anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). Many Pakistanis are perplexed and just could not find the reasons for Iranian assault. Following is the narrative offered by United States Institute of Peace (USIP) on Iran-Pakistan relations.

Iran announced the attack in Pakistan concurrent to its strikes in Iraq and Syria. Less than two days later, Pakistan hit back with not only missiles but also fighter jets in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province — claiming to target hideouts of anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist insurgents operating from Iranian soil.

This sudden escalation and military hostilities between the two neighboring countries come at a time of heightened regional tensions, with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq carrying out near-daily attacks on bases with US forces in Iraq and Syria and escalation in the Red Sea due to another Iranian-backed entity, the Houthis, targeting global shipping.

Still the attack in Pakistan is unique. Relations between Iran and Pakistan have been generally peaceful and border skirmishes between the two sides have been minimal, or at least contained very close to the border and downplayed by both sides. This time, by announcing the attack, Iran broke from that trend.

Since the revolution in Iran in 1979, ties between Iran and Pakistan have been functional, and in periods warm, but ultimately not particularly strong. While Iran-Pakistan people-to-people exchanges are the strength of the relationship, there have been political grievances toward the other on both sides.

Iran’s Shia theocratic regime, for example, has felt ideologically discordant with Sunni-majority Pakistan. Pakistani leadership has also at times viewed the relationship through a sectarian lens, though the salience of the sectarian rift is much less acute compared to Iran’s ties with countries in the Persian Gulf region, as Pakistan has a sizable Shia minority.

Iran has also had a negative perception of Pakistan due to its strong relations with geopolitical forces opposed to Iran: the United States and Gulf powers, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

For Pakistan’s part, it has seen Iran as a difficult and not very useful neighbor due to its pariah status in the West.

Iran has also had a closer relationship with Pakistan’s archrival India, and Pakistani leaders have long suspected Iran of supporting and providing haven to anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist groups.

Axis of resistance as defined by western media

ran's role as leader of Axis of Resistance - which includes the Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas and militias in Iraq and Syria - had to be balanced against avoiding getting sucked into a regional war over Gaza.

Tehran's messaging to - and about - the Houthis requires a measure of deniability about the extent of its control over them - but also an ability to claim some credit for their anti-Israel actions.

Strikes by United States and Britain on Houthi targets have failed to deter the group which controls a large chunk of Yemen including the capital Sanaa and much of the country's Red Sea coast by the Bab al-Mandab strait.

The Houthis, who first emerged in the 1980s as an armed group in opposition to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, are said to be armed, funded and trained by Iran and are part of its anti-West, anti-Israel Axis of Resistance.

As reported by Reuters, a senior US official informed that Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

A senior Iranian official said while Chinese officials discussed their concerns thoroughly in the meetings, they never mentioned any requests from Washington.

On January 14, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called for an end to attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea - without naming the Houthis or mentioning Iran - and the maintenance of supply chains and the international trade order.

Victor Gao, chair professor at China's Soochow University, said China, as the world's biggest trading nation, was disproportionately affected by the shipping disruption and restoring stability in the Red Sea was a priority.

Gao, a former Chinese diplomat and an adviser to oil giant Saudi Aramco, said Beijing would view Israel's treatment of the Palestinians as the root cause of the Red Sea crisis and would not want to publicly ascribe blame to the Houthis.

A diplomat familiar with the matter said China had been talking to Iran about the issue but it was unclear how seriously Tehran was taking Beijing's advice.

Two officials in the Yemeni government, an enemy of the Houthis, said they were aware that several countries, including China, had sought to influence Iran to rein the Houthis in.

Analysts Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group and Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said China had potential leverage over Iran because of its oil purchases and because Iran was hoping to attract more Chinese direct investment in future.

Both said China had so far been reluctant to use its leverage, for several reasons.

"China prefers to free-ride on the US safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea by bloodying the Houthis' nose," said Vaez, adding that Beijing was also aware that Iran did not have total control over its Yemeni allies.

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Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said on Thursday that Iran to date had not conveyed any message from China about scaling back attacks.

"They will not inform us of such a request, especially since Iran's stated position is to support Yemen. It condemned the American-British strikes on Yemen, and considered Yemen's position honourable and responsible," he said.

The stakes are high for Iran as China is one of the few powers capable of providing the billions of dollars of investment Tehran needs to maintain the capacity of its oil sector and keep its economy afloat.

China's influence was evident in 2023 when it facilitated an agreement between Iran and regional rival Saudi Arabia to end years of hostilities.

There are robust economic ties between China and Iran, Beijing's influence on Tehran's geopolitical decisions was not absolute.

Iranian state media says Chinese firms have only invested US$185 million since then. State media also said last year that Iranian non-oil exports to China fell 68% in the first five months of 2023 while Iran's imports from China rose 40%.

By contrast, Chinese companies committed last year to invest billions in Saudi Arabia after the countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2022.

While China could not be ignored, Tehran had other priorities to consider and its decisions were shaped by a complex interplay of factors.

Regional alliances and priorities as well as ideological considerations contribute significantly to Tehran's decisions.

Iran has to adopt a nuanced strategy when it came to the Gaza war, as well as the Houthi attacks, and that Tehran would not abandon its allies.

 

 

Iranian foreign minister to visit Pakistan

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is expected to pay an official visit to Pakistan next week.

On Monday, the Iranian foreign minister and his Pakistani counterpart, Jalil Abbas Jilani, released a joint statement following a phone call.

Amir Abdollahian will travel to Pakistan on January 29, 2024, according to the statement, on the invitation of the foreign minister of Pakistan.

The senior diplomats from Pakistan and Iran also concurred that their respective nations’ ambassadors will resume their posts by January 26.

Iranian warship providing security in Red Sea

Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani says sending the Alborz destroyer to the Red Sea aligns with Iran’s ongoing plans, such as escorting the country’s oil tankers..

During an interview with Iranian media, Irani discussed the Alborz destroyer's presence in the Red Sea, emphasizing its role in safeguarding Iran's oil tankers and ensuring maritime security in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

He shared that 96th Naval Group was recently deployed, and 97th Naval Group will soon be on a mission.

The commander highlighted the purpose of deploying the naval group, emphasizing the promotion of peace, expressing readiness for interactions with various nations, reinforcing defense, and revitalizing naval capabilities.

Talking about the seizure of a US oil tanker by Iran on January 11, the commander stated that the tanker's contents rightfully belong to Iran, and despite unjust actions, the country assertively reclaim what is theirs.

Irani underscored that any infringement on Iranian people's rights will be robustly responded to, in accordance with international norms and laws.

He spoke about the presence of the Pakistani naval group in the country, emphasizing that it represents a vital mission for the Iranian Navy, encompassing defensive strategy and maritime diplomatic defense.

“Planned interactions with regional countries, including joint maritime exercises, are part of the ongoing efforts to achieve common goals, particularly in ensuring regional economic security,” he stated.

Discussing the role of drones in defense, the Iranian commander highlighted that unmanned aerial vehicles play a significant role, both generally and specifically in the aviation sector of the Navy. 

Iran’s Navy has in recent years achieved self-sufficiency in manufacturing surface and sub-surface vessels. It has also increased its presence in international waters to protect naval routes and provide security for merchant vessels and tankers.

 

Iran: Peace in its neighborhood

On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held talks with several high-ranking officials from around the world, to discuss various regional and international issues.

During a meeting with Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan, Amir Abdollahian stated that Tehran is an advocate of peace in the Caucasus region. 

Referring to his recent trip to Yerevan and his meetings and discussions with the Armenian foreign minister and the secretary of the country’s National Security Council, the Iranian foreign minister said, “Armenia has a significant place in Iran’s neighborhood policy.”

Amir Abdollahian pointed out that the ties between the two countries are strong, saying the bilateral ties are advancing. He said boosting the ties would serve the interests of both nations.

The Iranian foreign minister highlighted the importance of preserving the security and stability in the Caucasus region and said Iran has always supported the peace talks between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Amir Abdollahian held an extensive meeting with his Georgian counterpart Ilia Darchiashvili.

Expressing his satisfaction with the meeting, the Iranian foreign minister hailed the old and strong relations between the officials and people of both countries.

Amir Abdollahian said the promotion of ties with Georgia is one of Iran’s priorities and further stated that Tehran cares about the security in the Caucasus and Georgia.

He sounded upbeat that the relations between the two countries would be developed without any restrictions.

The Iranian foreign minister underlined the necessity to rely on regional solutions for the problems in the region, explaining that the security issues of the region are tied and related to each other.

Another person the Iranian diplomat convened with was Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan.

In the meeting, Amir Abdollahian and bin Farhan exchanged views over bilateral issues such as economic and trade cooperation.

The two top diplomats also discussed other issues of mutual interest such as Palestine’s developments and the latest state of the war in Gaza.

The Iranian foreign minister outlined the developments in Gaza and the crimes of the Zionist regime with US support, stressing Iran's support for efforts to prevent the expansion of the war and for the restoration of stability and peace in the region.

Amir Abdollahian also referred to Iran's efforts to dispel some concerns in the region and the world, including Iran's efforts to put in place mechanisms to ensure energy security.

 

Iran considers Pakistan's security as its own, says Abdollahian

In a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart on Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian emphasized that Tehran attaches great significance to the security of its neighbor countries including Pakistan.

The top Iranian diplomat told Jalil Abbas Jilani that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan is extremely important to Iran. He, however, noted that Iran cannot sit idly by and let vicious terrorists spill the blood of its innocent civilians. 

“The group we targeted has claimed responsibility for several terrorist attacks on Iranian soil. No Pakistani civilians were targeted in this operation,” Amir Abdollahian stated. 

The Iranian foreign minister also hoped for the continuation of dialogue between the two countries, saying the exchange of views should continue based on mutual interest and must lead to stronger security cooperation. 

The Pakistani foreign minister, for his part, underscored the historic ties between Iran and Pakistan, while pointing out the two nations’ long-lasting endeavors in combating terrorism.   

He also listed the numerous areas of cooperation between the two countries and requested the Iranian side to provide information related to terrorist groups on Pakistani soil for cooperation between the two countries.

Jilani emphasized that Islamabad expects the confrontation with terrorist groups in Pakistan to be carried out by Pakistani forces.

In December, a terrorist attack on a southeastern police station in Iran left 11 guards killed and 6 others injured. The Pakistan-based Jaish al-Adl terrorist group took responsibility for the attack.

The headquarters of the Jaish al-Adl were pounded by a barrage of Iranian missiles on Tuesday, which destroyed the group’s terror infrastructure.

Iran says it officially asked Pakistan numerous times to rein in the terrorists in the past years, but Islamabad has not done enough to combat the group. 

 

Iran and Pakistan conduct joint naval exercise in Persian Gulf

According to Tehran Times, Iran and Pakistani military forces engaged in a day-long joint naval training exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and the northern Persian Gulf, demonstrating their commitment to enhancing cooperation and strengthening relations.

The drills, which took place off the coast of Bandar Abbas, involved combat vessels and missile-launching warships from both the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy and the Pakistan Navy.

The main objectives of the naval exercises were to elevate the level of training interactions, promote military relations, and implement bilateral maritime agreements. Young officers and cadets from both Iranian and Pakistani navies participated, employing a range of naval tactics and practicing communication and interaction using various telecommunication systems. Emphasis was placed on the transmission and reception of messages during sea emergencies.

Iran and Pakistan have increasingly intensified their military cooperation, conducting several joint naval exercises. In June of the previous year, senior military commanders from both nations discussed plans for collaboration between their navies and air forces.

During the meetings in Islamabad, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani engaged with Chief of Naval Staff of Pakistan Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi and Chief of Air Staff of the Pakistan Air Force Zaheer Ahmad Babar. The Iranian delegation received briefings on the Pakistani Navy's efforts in ensuring maritime security and discussed plans for bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

The commanders explored ways to enhance cooperation between the navies of Iran and Pakistan, including initiatives such as training courses and the exchange of delegations. This ongoing collaboration underscores the commitment to mutual strategic interests in the region.

Earlier this month, Iran announced that the Islamic Republic plans to form new regional and extra-regional alliances to enhance security.

He also named Pakistan among other countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Iraq that are eager for collective naval cooperation.

 

Pakistan to recall its ambassador from Iran

The Foreign Office (FO) on Wednesday said Pakistan has decided to recall its ambassador from Iran and suspend all high-level visits ongoing or planned between the two countries following the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Tehran.

Iran claimed having targeted an Iranian terrorist group and none of the nationals of the friendly and brotherly country of Pakistan were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.

The development came after the FO, in a statement released late on Tuesday night, denounced the strikes in Pakistani territory that resulted in deaths of two innocent children while injuring of three girls. It termed the incident a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

In a press briefing in Islamabad on Wednesday, FO spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said last night’s unprovoked and blatant breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty by Iran was a violation of international law and the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.

“This illegal act is completely unacceptable and has no justification whatsoever,” she asserted.

 “We have also informed them that Pakistan has decided to recall its ambassador from Iran and that the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, who is currently visiting Iran, may not return for the time being,” she said.

 “On Pakistan, none of the nationals of the friendly and brotherly country of Pakistan were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Amir-Abdollahian said Iran’s attack on “Pakistan’s soil” was a response to the Jaish Al Adl group’s recent deadly attacks, particularly on the city of Rask in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan.

“The group has taken shelter in some parts of Pakistan’s Balochistan province,” he claimed, adding that “we’ve talked with Pakistani officials several times on this matter”.

The foreign minister said Iran respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan but would not “allow the country’s national security to be compromised or played with”.

Earlier, Iran’s Deputy President for Parliamentary Affairs Mohammad Hosseini claimed Pakistan had been warned that they must prevent the entry into Iran of people who kill large numbers of people; it was natural to have the reaction of the Islamic republic.

China urges Iran and Pakistan to exercise restraint following air strike

According to AFP, China on Wednesday has urged Pakistan and Iran to show restraint, after Islamabad denounced what it described as the unprovoked violation of its airspace by Iran.

According to a statement released by the Foreign Office (FO) after midnight, strikes in Pakistani territory resulted in deaths of two innocent children while injuring of three girls.

While the Pakistan FO did not mention the location of the incident, Iranian state media said the attack took place in the border town of Panjgur in Balochistan.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said the focal point of this operation was the region known as Kouh-Sabz (green mountain) in Balochistan.

“Two key strongholds of the Jaysh al-Dhulm (Jaish al-Adl) terrorist group in Pakistan were specifically targeted and successfully demolished by a combination of missile and drone attacks”, the Tasnim news agency said.

Reports from the area suggested that a missile hit a mosque, partially damaging it and injuring some people.

According to AFP, hours before the attack, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar had met Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Iran offered no immediate official comment but its state-run Nour News agency said the attack destroyed the Pakistan headquarters of the Jaish al-Adl.

Speaking at a regular briefing today, China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said, “We call on both sides to exercise restraint, avoid actions that would lead to an escalation of tension and work together to maintain peace and stability.”

“We consider both Iran and Pakistan as close neighbours and major Islamic countries,” she added.

It must be noted that both Iran and Pakistan are close partners of Beijing and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation — a political and security union of countries spanning much of Eurasia, including China, India and Russia.

‘Unacceptable and condemnable’

In a post on social media platform X, caretaker Balochistan Information Minister Jan Achakzai expressed disappointment and said terrorism was a common threat to all countries in the region that required coordinated action.

“Such acts of air space violations by Iran undermine neighbourly relation, trust and renewed trade linkages established with Balochistan,” he added.

Pakistan has acted with restraint whenever there’s been turbulence on the Pak-Iran border by terrorist groups, and always sought collective responses to the transnational challenge of terrorism.

Last month, at least 11 Iranian police officers were killed in an attack overnight on a police station in the southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchestan. Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, while visiting the site, had urged Pakistan to prevent terrorist groups from establishing bases within its borders, the official news agency of Iran reported at the time. He had also noted that initial investigations suggested the assailants had entered Iran from Pakistan.

 

Iran strikes Mossad center in Iraqi Kurdistan

According to Tehran Times, on early Tuesday morning the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) fired barrages of ballistic missiles at Syrian positions of terrorists who were involved in the recent attacks inside Iran, as well as an Israeli Mossad espionage center in the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

The IRGC said the first missile strike targeted gathering places of commanders and main elements of recent terrorist attacks in the Iranian cities of Kerman and Rask.

The strike came after gathering points of the Daesh Takfiri terrorist group were identified in the occupied territories of Syria and destroyed with a number of ballistic missiles, the IRGC stated.

Daesh claimed responsibility for two suicide attacks that killed nearly 100 people and wounded 280 at a memorial service for top anti-terror commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in the southeastern city of Kerman on January 03.

Last month, another terrorist attack hit a police station in the border city of Rask in the southeastern province of Sistan-Balouchestan, killing 11 police officers and injuring at least six others.

In a statement the IRGC announced that another missile strike has been launched at a main espionage center of the Israel's Mossad spy agency in the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

It said the strike was a sign of the IRGC’s full intelligence superiority over the Zionist regime's bases and activities in the region, Press TV reported.

The IRGC added that its missile strike on the Iraqi Kurdistan region has totally destroyed the Mossad center there.

The Mossad center was used to develop espionage operations and plan acts of terrorism across the region, especially in Iran, the IRGC said in its statement. 

The missile strike against the Mossad center, the statement said, was in retaliation for the recent assassinations of the resistance front’s commanders, especially those of the IRGC, by Israel.

General Seyed Razi Mousavi, a member of the IRGC serving as a military adviser in Syria, was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike in a residential neighborhood in the suburbs of Damascus on December 25, 2023.

The IRGC also assured the Iranian nation that it will find the malicious terrorist groups that are active against Iran wherever they are and will punish them for their shameful deeds.

 

Iran registers highest oil output rise among OPEC members

A latest report released by the US Department of Energy stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. Iran’s oil production stood at 2.54 million bpd in 2022.

The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022.

This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd.

Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023.

The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry.

Back in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under US sanctions more than five years ago.

The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

A Reuters report, also said in June last year, that Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

Iran has not released official figures about its oil exports over the past years amid efforts to evade Washington’s illegal sanctions.

 

Iran and India reach final agreement on Chabahar port development

Iran and India have reached the final agreement for the development of Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port. The agreement to develop the strategic port was reached during a meeting between Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Mehrdad Bazrpash and Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

In this meeting, the Iranian minister proposed the formation of a joint transportation committee to expand cooperation between the two sides and stated that the formation of this working committee will enable the activation of transit capacities and the use of the North-South corridor.

The Indian minister, for his part, emphasized his country's readiness for new investments in the fields of transportation and transit in Iran and invited the Iranian minister to visit India.

As Iran's only oceanic port on the Gulf of Oman, Chabahar Port holds great significance for the country both politically and economically. The country has taken serious measures for developing this port in order to improve the country’s maritime trade.

The port consists of Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti terminals, each of which has five berth facilities. The port is located in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan Province and is about 120 kilometers southwest of Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province, where the China-funded Gwadar port is situated.

In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement for the strategically-located Chabahar port to give New Delhi access to Kabul and Central Asia.

Later, based on a separate deal with Iran, India agreed to install and operate modern loading and unloading equipment including mobile harbor cranes in Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar.

Under the framework of the mentioned agreement, the Indian side has been operating in Shahid Beheshti port in the form of a build–operate–transfer (BOT) contract; this is the first time that such a contract has been implemented in one of the country's ports with 100 percent foreign investment.

The first consignment of Indian equipment for the development of port activities at Chabahar port worth US$8.5 million arrived in the southeastern port in January 2021.

Back in last July, India’s ambassador to Tehran said Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port is a golden opportunity for India to expand its economic ties.

“Chabahar's position in the expansion of trade exchanges in West Asia, Eurasia, and even Europe is unique,” the envoy said during a visit to the port.

 

Iran serves notice on Pakistan for delay in gas pipeline project

Reportedly, Iran has served a third notice to Islamabad, renewing its intention to move the arbitration court for not laying the pipeline as part of the Iran-Pakistan gas line project. The project has been facing delays since 2014.

It is believed that the Interstate Gas System (ISGS) has funds to lay down the 81-kilometer pipeline to partially become part of the project. Now it is time Pakistan should come out of US hegemony and complete this gas pipeline at the earliest.

Iran had asked Pakistan in its second notice to construct a portion of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project in its territory by March 2024 or be ready to pay a penalty of US$18 billion.

Tehran had sent a notice to Islamabad in February 2019 to move an arbitration court for not laying down the pipeline in Pakistan’s territory in the stipulated period under the IP gas line project. It threatened to invoke the penalty clause of Gas Sales Purchase Agreement (GSPA). The GSPA was signed in 2009 for 25 years but the project could not take shape.

Pakistan has been arguing that it could not materialise the project in its territory because of the US sanctions imposed on Iran, a view which authorities in Tehran have never subscribed, saying the US sanctions are not justified. Iraq and Turkey have been using gas from Iran for long as they have managed waivers on the US sanctions.

It is on record that India got a waiver for importing petroleum products from. Pakistan has, meanwhile, tried to contact the US authorities many times to know whether the US curbs on Iran would have any impact on Pakistan if it becomes a part of the IP gas line but the country has not received any response from Washington.

The GSPA (Gas Sales Purchase Agreement) was signed under the French law and the Paris-based Arbitration Court is the forum to decide disputes that arise between the two countries. The French arbitration court does not recognize the US sanctions.

It is believed that the top authorities in Pakistan have carved out a strategy under which it has been decided to partially implement the IP gas line project by laying down an 81-kilometer pipeline from Gwadar to the Iranian border, a point where Iran has already laid down its part of the pipeline from the gas field. This will help Pakistan avoid the expected penalty of US$18 billion if Iran moves the Arbitration Court.”

As per the plan, the 81-kilometer pipeline will connect Gwadar with the IP gas line project and the gas will be used in Gwadar initially. If the US does not invoke any kind of sanctions, then the pipeline will be extended from Gwadar to Nawabshah. If Washington imposes sanctions, then Pakistan will have valid reasons to abandon the project and this is how it would escape the US$18 billion penalty and arbitration court proceedings. To this effect, top-level leadership of both the countries is in constant touch at the ministerial level on a strategy to implement the project and the prime minister will be briefed by the authorities very soon and a go-ahead for the strategy will be sought.

The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has also been sensitized over the latest notice from Iran and the strategy carved out by the authorities concerned.

According to top sources in SIFC, Pakistan has to show seriousness by March 2024 towards the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline by laying down the 80-kilometer pipeline from Gwadar to the Iranian border or it would face the US$18 billion penalty.

United States sends private message to Iran

US President Joe Biden said America has delivered a private message to Iran about the Houthis in Yemen after the US carried out a second strike on the group.

"We delivered it privately and we're confident we're well-prepared," he said without giving further details.

The US said its latest strike was a follow on action targeting radar.

Iran denies involvement in attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea. However, United States continues to allege that Iran is supplying weapons to Houthis.

It is believed that United States wants to disrupt smooth sailing of ships through Red Sea because about 15% of global seaborne trade passes through it. This includes 8% of global grain, 12% of seaborne oil and 8% of the world's liquefied natural gas.

Joint US-British airstrikes targeted nearly 30 Houthi positions in the early hours of Friday with the support of Western allies including Australia and Canada.

A day later, the US Central Command said it carried out its latest strike on a Houthi radar site in Yemen using Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles.

A Houthi spokesman told Reuters the strikes had no significant impact on the group's ability to affect shipping.

Most Yemenis live in areas under Houthi control. As well as Sanaa and the north of Yemen, the Houthis control the Red Sea coastline.

The official Western government line is that the ongoing air strikes on Houthi targets are quite separate from the war in Gaza. These are a necessary and proportionate response to the unprovoked and unacceptable Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, they say.

In Yemen and the wider Arab world these attacks are viewed rather differently.

These assaults are seen as Britain and United States joining in the Gaza war on the side of Israel, since the Houthis have declared their actions to be in solidarity with Hamas and the people of Gaza. One theory even says that the West is doing Netanyahu's bidding.

It is still possible that these airstrikes will have a chilling effect on the Houthis. They will certainly degrade their capacity to attack ships in the short term. But the longer these airstrikes persist, the greater the risk that Britain and the US get sucked into another conflict in Yemen.

It has taken Saudi Arabia more than eight years to extricate itself from Yemen after a US proxy war and Houthis are now more entrenched than ever.

Israel's retaliatory military campaign of air strikes and ground operations against Hamas in Gaza have killed 23,843 Palestinians so far with thousands more believed dead under rubble. 

Iran seizes oil tanker in Gulf of Oman

According to a Reuters report, Iran has seized a tanker with Iraqi crude destined for Turkey on Thursday in retaliation for the confiscation last year of the same vessel and its oil by the United States.

The seizure of the Marshall Islands-flagged St Nikolas coincides with weeks of attacks by Yemen's Houthi militias targeting Red Sea shipping routes.

"After the theft of Iranian oil by the United States last year, St Nikolas tanker was seized by Iran's Navy this morning with a judicial order ... it is en route to Iranian ports," the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing a statement by the Navy.

The St Nikolas, was seized by the United States last year in a sanctions enforcement operation when it sailed under a different name, Suez Rajan. Following the move, Iran warned the United States that it would "not go unanswered".

The St Nikolas was boarded by armed intruders as it sailed close to the Omani city of Sohar, according to British maritime security firm Ambrey, and its AIS tracking system was turned off as it headed in the direction of the Iranian port of Bandar-e-Jask.

The ship loaded 145,000 metric tons of oil in the Iraqi port of Basra and was heading to Aliaga in western Turkey via the Suez Canal, its operator Empire Navigation told Reuters, adding that it had lost contact with the vessel.

While Yemen's Houthis have since October last year attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea to show support for Palestinian militant group Hamas in its fight against Israel, those incidents have been concentrated on the Bab al-Mandab Strait, to the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula.

Thursday's incident is located closer to the Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran.

The vessel is manned by a crew of 19 including 18 Filipino nationals and one Greek national, the operator said, adding it was chartered by Turkish oil refiner Tupras.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) authority said earlier on Thursday it had received a report that a vessel located around 50 nautical miles east of Oman's coast was boarded by four to five armed persons.

The armed intruders were reported to be wearing military-style black uniforms and black masks.

The UK authority, which provides maritime security information, said it was unable to make further contact with the vessel and authorities were still investigating the incident.

The United States Navy's Fifth Fleet did not immediately respond to a request for comment or further information.

The Suez Rajan was carrying more than 980,000 barrels of Iranian crude oil last year when it was seized and the oil confiscated in the US sanctions enforcement operation.

The United States said at the time that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been trying to send contraband Iranian oil to China, in violation of US sanctions.

The vessel was unable to unload the Iranian crude for nearly two and half months over fears of secondary sanctions on vessels used to unload it. It was renamed the St Nikolas after unloading the cargoes.

 

Tehran to host fifth PUIC summit

The fifth emergency meeting of the Parliamentary Union of the OIC Member States (PUIC) and the first meeting of the Asian Parliamentary Assembly (APA) is scheduled to take place in Tehran on the Palestine issue.

The summits, being held under the slogan of "Cooperation of Parliaments for Palestine," will bring together representatives from 26 Islamic and Asian countries, including Algeria, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Oman, China, Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Senegal, Mali, Mauritania, Indonesia, Tajikistan, Kuwait, Qatar, Maghreb, Bahrain, Turkey, UAE, Pakistan, and Chad.

Representatives from 14 countries will attend the summits at the level of speaker and vice speaker of parliament.

The PUIC and APA summits aim to strengthen cooperation among parliamentarians from Muslim and Asian countries to address regional and global issues, with a particular focus on the Palestinian cause. The summits will also provide a platform for discussing ways to promote peace, stability, and development in the region.

 

Iran stations warship in Red Sea as US aircraft carrier leaves

Iran's Alborz warship has passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and entered the Red Sea, the country's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday. Iranian warships have been operating in the region to secure shipping lanes since 2009, Tasnim said.

Iranian-backed groups have not reduced their attacks in the Middle East. On the opposite, pro-Iranian media sought to highlight how the attacks are increasing. Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, claimed that there were attacks targeting Al-Asad based in Iraq and Shaddadi in Syria, two places where US forces are located. The US is in Syria and Iraq to help defeat ISIS.

Reports on December 31, 2023 said that the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier is heading out of the Mediterranean is also raising eyebrows in Iran and the region. While Gaza fighting appears to be reduced slightly, Iran continues to want to manage the conflict against Israel. Iranian Tasnim ran a long interview about the role of Qasem Soleimani in the region. Although the interview is ostensibly about Soleimani, who was killed in January 2020 by the US, the report examines recent details about the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen targeting ships and Palestinian terror groups targeting Israel.

The article raises questions about presence of US aircraft carriers in the region. There were two carriers in the region, the Eisenhower and Ford.

The US had sent the second carrier after the October 07, 2023 attack to deter Hezbollah and others from escalating attacks.

The Iranian regime's view is that these naval assets have not been able to prevent the Houthis in Yemen from continuing attacks on ships. However, a US helicopter destroyed three small Houthi boats over the weekend, indicating that the Houthis are taking losses.

The story about the US carrier leaving the region was covered in Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, showing that pro-Iran figures in the region are watching this development closely.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia join BRICS

South Africa’s representative in the BRICS group of emerging economies, Anil Sooklal, has stated that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia join the bloc on January 01, 2024.

At the recent BRICS meeting, which took place in Durban, South Africa, early in December, Sooklal underlined —referring to the attendance of high-ranking representatives of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia— that the number of BRICS members will double with the addition of these nations.

He went on to add that the next conference of the economic group is scheduled for January 30, 2024 in Moscow, and it is expected that representatives of the new BRICS members will be there.

In a recent interview with Sputnik, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, emphasized Iran's commitment, alongside other BRICS members, to actively pursue de-dollarization across various economic sectors.

Bagheri Kani highlighted the focus on trade, economic collaborations, and financial exchanges within this influential coalition of major economies. 

He emphasized ongoing initiatives and expressed optimism about reinforcing these efforts to swiftly achieve their objectives.

Bagheri Kani underscored the importance of collaborative efforts, signaling a unified commitment within BRICS to reducing dependency on the dollar.

He clarified that the initiatives aim to establish a framework fostering economic autonomy and resilience among member nations.

The BRICS group, initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, established in 2009, has emerged as a significant force shaping global economic discussions. 

Iran, alongside Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has received an invitation to join this influential bloc. Their anticipated full membership, official from January 01, 2024, marks a substantial shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, provided insights into BRICS countries accelerating the transition to national currencies. 

This strategic shift aligns with the shared vision of establishing a more balanced and resilient global economic framework, reducing vulnerabilities associated with a singular currency.

BRICS has announced plans to introduce a gold-backed currency for settling international trade payments, challenging the global reserve status of the US dollar. This decision adds momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy.

Iran's active involvement in the BRICS initiative toward de-dollarization aligns with a broader trend among influential nations reshaping the global economic landscape.

As BRICS evolves, its concerted efforts toward economic autonomy become increasingly significant in shaping the future of international trade and finance.