Showing posts with label war in Gaza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label war in Gaza. Show all posts

Friday 26 January 2024

USIP highlights Implications of Iranian attack on US Policy

While the US policymakers and the broader policy community are accustomed to Iranian aggression — mostly through proxies — across the Middle East, direct Iranian military strikes in Pakistan are a novel development for them.

The strikes will only reinforce US leaders’ perception of Iran as a reckless actor.

In line with that, the State Department issued a statement condemning Iran’s actions against Pakistan — and disputed the Iranian charge against Pakistan by calling Iran the “leading funder” of terrorism and instability in the region.

As for a Pakistan policy perspective, it is in United States’ interest that there is no further regional flare-up involving Pakistan which destabilizes the country at a time of economic and political stress.

Policymakers will also hope for a de-escalation to not jeopardize, or at least not disrupt, ongoing counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan on Afghanistan.

Beyond the immediate standoff, some policymakers and US Central Command, which maintains strong ties with Pakistan, may see synergies with a Pakistan feeling threatened by Iran to balance Iranian military and proxy power in the region.

Iran-Pakistan tensions are not endemic, with incentives on both sides to maintain a functional relationship.

This basic diagnosis of Iran-Pakistan relations, combined with the United States’ Indo-Pacific priorities and uncertainty in Pakistan about working with the United States on Middle East issues, will put a ceiling on any cooperative agenda around nefarious Iranian activities in the region.

USIP rationale Iran attacked Pakistan

In a surprising turn on January 16, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, claiming it had hit two strongholds of anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). Many Pakistanis are perplexed and just could not find the reasons for Iranian assault. Following is the logic offered by United States Institute of Peace (USIP) behind Iranian attack on Pakistan.

Iran’s calculus remains difficult to know — and Pakistan and other countries are left wondering what prompted Iran to take such a radical step against a more militarily powerful neighbor.

Iran’s logic of striking Pakistan remains opaque. On the face of it, Iran claims it struck terrorist cells of the Jaish al-Adl, which Iran says has a haven in Pakistan and implying also that the group has links to Israel.

Jaish al-Adl is a US-designated terrorist group fighting the Iranian regime with the goal of securing political and economic rights for the ethnic Baluch and Sunni in Iran.

On December 15th of last year, the group carried out an attack on a police station in the town of Rask, in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, killing several police officers.

Iranian logic that a preemptive strike against Jaish al-Adl is in response to the Rask attack doesn’t fully explain the attack.

Jaish al-Adl enjoying a haven in Pakistan with purported help from the external actors has been a long-standing Iranian complaint, but Iran has not struck Pakistan in cross-border raids before and hasn’t indicated an intent to undertake cross-border strikes of late.

There are two other possibilities for why Iran may have targeted Pakistan.

First, Iran may well be seeking to broaden the ongoing regional conflict and decided to draw Pakistan into the mix. If this is driving Iran, we may see more Iranian action in Pakistan.

Second, Iran may be attempting to force regional countries, including Pakistan, to rethink their preexisting alignment with the United States and to not offer further help that might allow the United States to counter Iran or its proxies in the region.

USIP view of Pak Iran relations

In a surprising turn on January 16, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, claiming it had hit two strongholds of anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). Many Pakistanis are perplexed and just could not find the reasons for Iranian assault. Following is the narrative offered by United States Institute of Peace (USIP) on Iran-Pakistan relations.

Iran announced the attack in Pakistan concurrent to its strikes in Iraq and Syria. Less than two days later, Pakistan hit back with not only missiles but also fighter jets in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province — claiming to target hideouts of anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist insurgents operating from Iranian soil.

This sudden escalation and military hostilities between the two neighboring countries come at a time of heightened regional tensions, with Iranian-backed militias in Iraq carrying out near-daily attacks on bases with US forces in Iraq and Syria and escalation in the Red Sea due to another Iranian-backed entity, the Houthis, targeting global shipping.

Still the attack in Pakistan is unique. Relations between Iran and Pakistan have been generally peaceful and border skirmishes between the two sides have been minimal, or at least contained very close to the border and downplayed by both sides. This time, by announcing the attack, Iran broke from that trend.

Since the revolution in Iran in 1979, ties between Iran and Pakistan have been functional, and in periods warm, but ultimately not particularly strong. While Iran-Pakistan people-to-people exchanges are the strength of the relationship, there have been political grievances toward the other on both sides.

Iran’s Shia theocratic regime, for example, has felt ideologically discordant with Sunni-majority Pakistan. Pakistani leadership has also at times viewed the relationship through a sectarian lens, though the salience of the sectarian rift is much less acute compared to Iran’s ties with countries in the Persian Gulf region, as Pakistan has a sizable Shia minority.

Iran has also had a negative perception of Pakistan due to its strong relations with geopolitical forces opposed to Iran: the United States and Gulf powers, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

For Pakistan’s part, it has seen Iran as a difficult and not very useful neighbor due to its pariah status in the West.

Iran has also had a closer relationship with Pakistan’s archrival India, and Pakistani leaders have long suspected Iran of supporting and providing haven to anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist groups.

Tuesday 16 January 2024

Democrats send Biden stern message on Gaza

A group of Senate Democrats voted Tuesday in favor of advancing a resolution sponsored by Bernie Sanders to potentially freeze US military aid to Israel, sending a pointed message to President Biden that the war in Gaza is becoming a major problem for his party, reports The Hill.

The Senate voted 72 to 11 to table the matter, but the number of Democrats who supported the measure reflects rising dissatisfaction among progressives over the civilian casualties in Gaza, which are now said to exceed 24,000. Liberals are also frustrated over the lack of a clear timeline for ending the war. 

Nine Democrats voted with Sanders, as did Rand Paul a frequent critic of US foreign aid.  

Sanders, the Senate’s leading critic of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’ handling of the siege and invasion of Gaza, says it’s immoral.  

On Tuesday he pounded his colleagues over the mounting death toll and the extensive use of American-supplied bombs and artillery shells in what had been heavily populated civilian areas.

“Whether we like it or not, the United States is complicit in the nightmare that millions of Palestinians are now experiencing,” he declared on the Senate floor, warning that hundreds of thousands of children in Gaza are starving right before our eyes.

He cited media reports that Israel dropped more than 22,000 American-supplied bombs on Gaza in a six-week span, including 2,000-pound bombs that can destroy entire neighborhoods. 

Elizabeth Warren who voted to advance the resolution, said she wanted to send a message. 

“Prime Minister Netanyahu has to understand that he does not get a blank check from the United States Congress,” she said.

“We have a responsibility to stand up now and say that given how Netanyahu and his right-wing war Cabinet have prosecuted this war, we have serious questions that we are obligated to ask before we go further in our support.” 

She said while the Biden administration is pushing the Netanyahu regime to reduce civilian deaths and ratchet down the intensity of the fighting, “Congress [has] a role here to play as well to make sure that Mr. Netanyahu understands we’re not writing blank checks.”  

The other Democrats who voted for the resolution were Laphonza Butler, Martin Heinrich, Mazie Hirono, Ben Ray Luján, Ed Markey, Jeff Merkley, Chris Van Hollen and Peter Welch.  

A group of progressive Democrats is also looking at attaching conditions to US military aid to Israel.  

Monday 1 January 2024

War in Gaza to continue throughout 2024

The Israeli military has said it expects the conflict in Gaza to continue throughout 2024. In a new year's message, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari said troop deployments were being adjusted to prepare for prolonged fighting.

He said some troops -- especially reservists -- would be withdrawn to allow them to regroup.

"These adaptations are intended to ensure the planning and preparation for continuing the war in 2024," he said.

"The IDF must plan ahead out of an understanding that there will be additional missions and the fighting will continue the rest of the year."

He said that some reservists would leave Gaza "as soon as this week" to allow them to "re-energise ahead of the coming operations".

More than 21,800 people have been killed in Gaza - mostly children and women - during 11 weeks of fighting, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

At least 48 Palestinians were killed in overnight bombing in Gaza City on Sunday, the health ministry in Gaza said, with many still buried under the rubble.

Another strike killed 20 people sheltering at Al-Aqsa University in the west of Gaza City, witnesses told the AFP news agency.

The UN says 85% of Gaza's 2.4 million people - almost 2 million people - have now been displaced.

"Tonight the sky in world countries will be lit by firecrackers, and joyful laughs will fill the air.

"In Gaza our skies are now filled with Israeli missiles and tank shells that land on innocent, homeless civilians," Zainab Khalil, 57, a resident from northern Gaza now in Rafah, told Reuters.

Netanyahu said on Saturday that "the war is at its height". "We are fighting on all of the fronts," he said. "We have huge success but we also have painful cases. Achieving victory will require time.

Israel's far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich called for Palestinians to leave Gaza and make way for Israelis who could "make the desert bloom".

Air raid sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and southern Israel as it saw in the new year, with Israeli missile defence systems intercepting rockets fired from Gaza, AFP reported.

Hamas's military wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, claimed responsibility for both attacks in a video posted on social media.

They said they used M90 rockets in "response to the massacres of civilians" perpetrated by Israel. 

Friday 22 December 2023

India abandoning pro-Israel stance

India is a country deeply wounded by colonialism. Apart from millions of people losing their lives during Britain’s centuries-long rule over India, the repercussions of the dark days continue to reverberate in the country's societal fabric to this day.

Challenges such as unemployment, famine, inadequate access to sanitation, education, and healthcare, as well as pervasive violence across caste, religious, and gender lines serve as poignant reminders that the impacts of the British colonial era are still alive and kicking in the Indian society.

This is why individuals within India and around the globe were astonished when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as one of the only world leaders to join Western officials and condemn the October 07 Hamas operation against Israel, an entity that undeniably evokes parallels to the British Raj.

“Deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel, our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour," Modi wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, a few hours after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm took place.

India has long been recognized by many Muslims as a fervent advocate for the Palestinian cause, evident in its rich diplomatic history replete with pro-Palestine actions.

From its vote against the partition of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly in 1947 to its distinction as the first non-Arab state to support the Palestinians' liberation struggles during the 1960s and 1970s, the nation has consistently voiced solidarity with those enduring experiences akin to India's own during the 19th and 20th centuries.

While it is undeniable that India's solidarity with Palestinians has waned during the nine-year tenure of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Modi's complete solidarity with Israel on October 07, and his decision to abstain from voting for a UN resolution calling for a humanitarian truce in Gaza on October 27, were still seen as unorthodox.

“After the Cold War India has generally tried to turn to the West’s orbit. That’s why after New Delhi refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Modi thought that it would only be right that he stood alongside Western politicians regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict,” Dr. Nozar Shafiei, professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, told the Tehran Times.

Several theories attempt to explain why Modi’s government adopted a notably stronger pro-Israel stance than customary during the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Critics posit that the governing BJP party, accused of leveraging the backing of the Hindu majority, perceives parallels between itself and the Israeli regime. Both entities find themselves surrounded by Muslims viewed as posing a threat, and both espouse a form of nationalism rooted in religion. Additionally, it is argued that the BJP aims to capitalize on religious polarization to secure votes, making an anti-Muslim stance far more strategically advantageous.

With certain Arab states beginning to embrace normalization with Israel, Modi may have believed that by October 07, the Palestinian cause had lost significance within the Arab world. Consequently, he may have concluded that adopting a pro-Israel position would help please the West while not negatively impacting India’s relations with Arab countries.

It seems, however, that the Indian leader soon came to realize that he was kind of wrong in his calculations.

India’s response to the war in Gaza came in two stages. The first one was released a few hours after the October 07 operation by Hamas which was seen by the majority in India as hasty. People even accused him of reflecting the views of Hindu extremists.

India has a culture of peace and while it is true that some are extremely Islamophobic, the majority of people in the Indian society feel sympathetic towards the Palestinians. With growing opposition inside India and public opinion turning against Israel, the Indian government began to rectify its controversial position.

As lifeless bodies accumulated in Gaza and global demonstrations in support of the Palestinians intensified, the Indian government began to call upon Israel for restraint, dialogue, and diplomatic measures, while vehemently condemning the regime’s relentless targeting of civilians.

Once more, the two-state solution took center stage in Indian statements as the country endeavored to maintain a balanced stance, steering clear of further entrenchment within Israel’s sphere of influence.

India recalibrated its diplomatic posture as its officials recognized the broader regional and global significance of the Palestinian cause, an awareness shared by numerous nations in the region.

The events following October 07 underscored that not only do the Palestinians remain resolute against the Israeli occupation, but that normalization agreements have failed to diminish wide-ranging support for the resistance. India which aspires to emerge as a potential superpower in the future cannot possibly overlook the Palestinian issue if it aims to play a pivotal role in West Asia.

“Although it was unlikely that ties between India and Muslim-majority nations begin to fray due to New Delhi’s initial support for Israel, India's largely positive standing in West Asia may have been compromised by a continued pro-Israel posture. Such a trajectory could have posed severe challenges for India in its contest with China, which has garnered acclaim for its fair and wiser stance during the recent Israel-Gaza conflict.

Though India continues to tread cautiously to evade drawing the ire of its Western allies, the notably pro-Israeli stance that sparked controversy at the onset of the conflict has conspicuously receded.

While no one anticipates India to find a definitive solution to the Palestinian issue, it is also expected that the country refrain from expressing sympathy towards colonizers empowered with the aid of Britain.

Courtesy: The Tehran Times