Iraq:: Chinese to explore oil and gas

According to Reuters, Chinese companies won bids to explore five Iraqi oil and gas fields on Saturday in a licensing round for hydrocarbon exploration that was primarily aimed at ramping up gas production for domestic use.

An Iraqi Kurdish company also took two of the 29 projects up for grabs in the three-day licensing round across central, southern and western Iraq, which for the first time includes an offshore exploration block in the country's Arab Gulf waters.

Iraq aims to lure billions of dollars of investments to develop its oil and gas sector as it looks to ramp up local petrochemicals production and end imports of gas from neighbouring Iran that are currently key to producing power.

More than 20 companies pre-qualified for the licensing round, including European, Chinese, Arab and Iraqi groups.

Notably, there was no US oil majors involved, even after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia met with representatives of US oil firms during an official visit to the United States last month.

Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group (ZPEC) took the northern extension of the Eastern Baghdad field, in Baghdad, and the Middle Euphrates field that straddles the southern Najaf and Karbala provinces, the oil ministry said.

China's United Energy Group Ltd won a bid to develop the Al-Faw field in southern Basra, while ZhenHua won a bid to develop Iraq's Qurnain field in the Iraqi-Saudi border region and Geo-Jade won a bid to develop Iraq's Zurbatiya field in the Wasit.

Two oil and gas fields were taken by Iraq's KAR Group - the Dimah field in eastern Maysan province, and the Sasan & Alan fields in Iraq's northwestern Nineveh province - the ministry said.

Around 20 more projects are open for bidding on Sunday and Monday.

Falah Al-amri, the Iraqi prime minister's advisor for oil and gas issues, said the government hoped the new projects would raise oil production to 6 million barrels per day by 2030 from around 5 million now.

The government also wants the projects to produce enough natural gas so that, along with plans to all-but eliminate gas flaring by 2030, Iraq could end imports.

"It is too early to talk about (gas) exports. We want to get self-sufficient," Al-amri told Reuters.

Iraq, OPEC's second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, at one time had targeted becoming a rival to the Gulf Arab kingdom with output of over a tenth of global demand.

But its oil sector development has been hampered by contract terms viewed as unfavourable by many major oil companies as well as recurring conflict and political paralysis.

Growing investor focus in recent years on environmental, social and governance criteria have also had an effect.

Western oil giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have departed from a number of projects in Iraq while Chinese companies have steadily expanded their footprint.

 

 

 

RIC search for a new global security order

The key question is, how will Russia–Iran–China (RIC), as BRICS leaders, SCO members, and simultaneously top three “existential threats” to the Hegemon, be able to start implementing a new global security architecture without staring down the genocidals. 

The Hegemon has no idea what awaits the Exceptionalist mindset, China has started to decisively stir the civilizational cauldron without bothering about an inevitable array of sanctions coming by early 2025 and/or a possible collapse of the international financial system. 

Last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his list of delusional US demands was welcomed in Beijing by Foreign Minister Wang Yi and President Xi Jinping as little more than an annoying gnat.

Wang, on the record, stressed that Tehran was justified in defending itself against Israel’s shredding of the Vienna Convention when it attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus. 

At the UN Security Council, China now openly questions not only the state terror attack on the Nord Streams but also the US–Israel combo’s blocking of Palestinian statehood. Moreover, Beijing, just like Moscow recently, hosts Palestine’s political factions together in a conference aiming to unify their positions.   

Only two days before Moscow celebrates Victory Day, the end of the Great Patriotic War, Xi will land in Belgrade to remind the whole world about the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese embassy by the US, UK, and NATO. 

Russia, meanwhile, provided a platform for the UNRWA – the UN relief agency for Palestinian refugees, which Israel has sought to defund – to explain to high representatives of BRICS-10 the cataclysmic humanitarian situation in Gaza, as described by UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini. 

In short, serious political business is already being conducted outside of the corrupted UN system, as the United Nations disintegrates into a corporate shell with the US dictating all terms as the largest shareholder. 

Russian Security Council chairman Nikolai Patrushev met in St. Petersburg with his Chinese counterpart Chen Wenqing on the sidelines of the 12th International Security Summit, congregating over 100 nations, including the security heads of BRICS-10 members Iran, India, Brazil, and South Africa, as well as Iraq. 

The key crossroads these past few days was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense summit in Astana,

For the first time, the new Chinese Defense Minister, Dong Jun, met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, to emphasize their comprehensive strategic partnership. 

Dong, significantly, stressed the “dynamic” nature of China–Russia military interaction, while Shoigu doubled down, saying it “sets a model for interstate relations” based on mutual respect and shared strategic interests. 

Addressing the full SCO assembly, Shoigu emphatically refuted the massive western propaganda drive about a Russian “threat” to NATO. 

Everybody was at the SCO defense ministers’ meeting – including, at the same table, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Belarus as an observer. Minsk is eager to join the SCO. 

The interlocking Russia–Iran–China strategic partnerships were totally in sync. Apart from Dong meeting Shoigu, he also met Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, who lavishly praised Beijing’s condemnation of the Israeli terror air strike in Damascus. 

What is happening now between Beijing and Tehran is a replay of what started last year between Moscow and Tehran, when a member of the Iranian delegation on a visit to Russia remarked that both parties had agreed on a mutual, high-level “anything you need” relationship.  

In Astana, Dong’s support for Iran was unmistakable. Not only did he invite Ashtiani to a security conference in Beijing, mirroring the Iranian position, he also called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the delivery of humanitarian aid.   

Shoigu, meeting with Ashtiani, provided extra context when he recalled that “the joint fight against international terrorism in Syria is a vivid example of our long-standing friendly relations.” The Russian defense minister then delivered his clincher: 

The current military-political situation and threats to our states oblige us … to common approaches to building a just world order based on equality for all participants in the international community.

Establishing a new global security order is right at the heart of BRICS-10 planning – on par with the de-dollarization debate. All of this is anathema to the collective west, which is incapable of understanding the multifaceted, intertwined Russia, Iran, and China partnerships.   

And the interaction goes on in person. Russian President Vladimir Putin will be visiting Beijing later this month. On Gaza, the Russia–Iran–China position is in complete sync: Israel is committing genocide. For the EU – and NATOstan as a whole – this is not genocide: the bloc supports Israel no matter what.

After Iran, on April 13, changed the game in West Asia for good, without even using their finest hypersonic missiles, the key question for the Global Majority is stark: in the end, who will restrain the genocidals, and how? Diplomatic sources hint this will be discussed face-to-face by Putin and Xi. 

This time, the barbarians are facing a 5,000-year continuing written civilization, armed with Sun Tzu’s Art of War, Mao thought, Xi’s dual circulation strategy, Belt and Road, BRICS, renminbi digitalization, Russia and China unlimited, the world’s most powerful manufacturing industry, tech supremacy, economic powerhouse, and the backing of the Global South.

US threats of a “clear choice” between ending several key strands of the Russia–China strategic partnership or facing a sanctions tsunami don’t cut it in Beijing. The same applies to Washington’s wishful attempts at preventing BRICS members from ditching the US dollar. 

Yaroslav Lisovolik, founder of BRICS+ Analytics, dismisses the Hegemon’s threats against BRICS as the road map toward an alternative payment system is still in its infancy. As for Russia–China trade, the non-dollar high-speed train has already left the station. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has made it quite clear that Moscow and Beijing have nearly reached the point of abandoning the US dollar in bilateral trade. And the outright theft of Russian assets by the collective west is the ultimate red line for BRICS – and all other nations watching with horror – as a whole, this is definitely a “non-agreement capable” Empire, as Lavrov has been emphasizing since late 2021.

Courtesy: Information Clearing House

Iran Oil Show 2024 opens today

Despite all the propaganda against Iran oil industry's international successes and its energy diplomacy approach, the growing number of foreign oil companies’ presence at the 28th Oil Show is a clear sign of rising trust in Iran’s oil industry.

Director of the 28th Iran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition, known as Iran’s Oil Show 2024, Gholamreza Jamali, made the remarks during a press conference on May 06 in Tehran adding the exhibition opens its doors to the public on May 08.

Jamali said that 1750 oil industry related companies, including 250 foreign companies from 12 countries including Russia, China, Germany, France, Japan, Belarus, India, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Austria and Argentina shows that Iran’s oil show is not only one of the largest oil exhibitions at home but also in the West Asia region.

The great achievements of Iran’s oil industry over the last two years, is due to the support of the Minister of Petroleum, Jamali said at the press conference.

A number of companies failed to take part in this year’s oil exhibition mainly due to lack of appropriate infrastructures expressing hope improvement in the facilities to provide proper conditions for participation of all companies in the next rounds of oil exhibitions.

Elsewhere in his remarks he said, a number of world high-ranking officials have been invited to participate at the opening ceremony of the exhibition.

According to him, while during last year’s oil exhibition, just 2 thousand square meters had been allocated to accommodate foreign companies, this space has been expanded this year so that the foreign companies’ exclusive space reaches 5 thousand square meters.

 As far as it concerns allocating spaces, the organizers have decided to pay attention to the arrangement based on upstream, midstream and downstream activities and the halls and booths locations are somehow related to the subject of value chain in the oil industry

In order to support the technological innovations in the oil industry, an especial space has been allocated to the knowledge-based companies, technological companies, universities and start-ups, he also said.

Pointing out that numerous side events that will be held on the sidelines of the exhibition, the director of the Tehran Oil Show 2024 announced that many of these events would lead to the signing of contracts and memorandums of understanding in the oil industry, resulting in boosting production with economic results.

Jamali noted that providing appropriate conditions for direct connection between private and public sector activists is one of the main functions of the oil exhibition every year, which often faces some obstacles over the year due to the existence of administrative bureaucracy.

Announcing the slogan of this year's oil exhibition as "Oil industry, production leap, technological optimization", he said, "At this year’s exhibition we will reveal some equipment for the first time which is very important in view of meeting domestic needs and exporting to other countries."

The International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition as the main and most important oil event in Iran is held annually by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) with the support of the Petroleum Ministry.

The Petroleum Ministry’s subsidiaries including the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) and the National Petrochemical Company (NPC) have an active presence in the event.

Iran Oil Show 2024 is being held from May 08 to May 11 at Tehran International Permanent Fairground.

Russian oil exports growing despite sanctions

Russian oil export revenues surged to US$17.2 billion in March 2024, driven by higher global oil prices and increased crude export volumes, according to the April ‘Russian Oil Tracker’ by KSE Institute.

Despite robust US Treasury sanctions targeting the shadow fleet, Russia continues to expand it by incorporating new tankers, allowing for stable exports and further evasion of oil price cap.

Russian seaborne oil exports rose by 4% in March, driven by a 12% increase in crude oil shipment to more than 400,000 barrels per day, while exports of oil products declined by 6%. Notably, India saw a 3% increase in Russian crude imports to 1,445,000 barrels per day, maintaining its position as the top importer of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Turkey has been meeting around two-thirds of its oil demand through Russian oil products imports, with total imports exceeding 800,000 barrels per day since November 2023.

However, only 36% of Russian oil exports were shipped by IG-insured tankers. For other shipments, Russia utilized its shadow fleet. It was responsible for exports of 2.8 million barrels per day of crude and 1.1 million barrel per day of oil products in March.

Specifically, 223 loaded non-IG-insured tankers left Russian ports, with 2 engaged in STS transfers in March 2024. With 85% of these tankers aged over 15 years, the risk of oil spills at sea is heightened—a potential catastrophe for which Russia would likely refuse to pay.

The US Treasury’s strategy of designating individual vessels effectively removes shadow tankers from regular commercial service. As of April 12, 2024, out of 41 sanctioned vessels, 37 were unloaded and not scheduled for further voyages, while 3 were completing their current voyages in line with the OFAC authorization.

One vessel provides coastal shuttle services violating OFAC’s sanctions but only within the Black Sea. On April 04, OFAC also sanctioned Oceanlink Maritime Dmcc and its 13 tankers for its ties with Iran but 7 of these 13 tankers also shipped Russian crude without IG P&I insurance.

Russia managed to expand its shadow tanker fleet, adding 35 new tankers to replace 41 tankers added to OFAC’s SDN list since December 2023. These tankers, all over 15 years old, are managed outside the EU/G7. Nine of them were directly involved in loading Iranian oil in Iran or through STS operations in 2021-2023, as per Kpler.

Russia also continues to evade shadow fleet sanctions by transferring sanctioned tankers to new entities. For instance, when four UAE-registered shipping companies, sanctioned by the UK, passed tankers to other Emirati firms, they continued commercial operations under new management. Similarly, Stream Ship Management Fzco became the top shipper of Russian crude oil after acquiring tankers previously managed by Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzc, sanctioned by the OFAC.

UAE, Chinese and Greek ship managers have played a leading role in transporting Russian crude. In March 2024, eight of the top ten shippers of Russian crude were registered in the UAE or China.

As for Russian oil products exports, Greek companies dominated the top shippers, although Modern Gemi Isletmeciligi As (Turkey) and Oil Tankers Scf Mgmt Fzco (UAE) led the list in March.

KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues to reach US$175 billion and US$152 billion in 2024 and 2025 under the base case with current oil price caps and stronger sanctions enforcement. However, if sanctions enforcement is weak, Russian oil revenues could increase, reaching US$206 billion in 2024 and US$195 billion in 2025.

The Q4 2023 data suggest that problems with price cap implementation and enforcement are much bigger than previously expected. To ensure that sanctions continue to constrain Russia’s ability to wage its war of aggression on Ukraine—and that their credibility is maintained—additional steps urgently need to be taken. Below, we outline three critical measures that can quickly and effectively address Russian effort to evade sanctions on its oil exports.

1. G7/EU countries should ensure that their authorities have sufficient proof of compliance with the price cap, including by: a) leveraging the involvement of G7/EU financial institutions in the Russian oil trade and their knowledge of key transaction details such as prices; b) requiring attestations to be provided by reputable entities defined via transparent criteria and subject to sanctions in the case of violations or their facilitation; and/or c) stepping-up of documentary evidence requirements for G7/EU service providers under the current system (including original sales contracts, etc.).

2. EU coastal states should leverage geographical “choke points” to limit Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” of tankers by requiring proper spill insurance for vessels’ passage through their territorial waters, including in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean. This would force Russia to rely once again on G7/EU services for a substantial share of its exports and also help address environmental risks that have emerged due to the increasing use of old and under-insured tankers. For this purpose, a system to allow for timely and efficient verification of insurance information should be established.

3. Price cap coalition countries should step up penalties on entities that violate the price cap. For G7/EU companies, this should include tougher monetary penalties and expanded lockout periods. For third-country actors, price cap coalition countries should impose “direct” sanctions (e.g., SDN listing in the United States or use of the European Union’s anti-circumvention tool established in the 11th package) and consider the application of extraterritorial (“secondary”) sanctions, leveraging the continued critical importance of its financial system for internationally operating businesses.

 

US Senate passes Ukraine and Israel funding

The Senate on Tuesday passed a US$95 billion emergency foreign aid package, ending months of bitter fighting over US$61 billion for the war in Ukraine that had deeply divided the Republican Party. The measure passed by a vote of 79 to 18 and now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The package also includes US$15 billion in military aid for Israel and US$9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other war-torn areas, which became another flashpoint among conservative Republicans who argued it didn’t have adequate safeguards to keep it from going to Hamas.

It provides US$8 billion in security assistance to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

It includes language to force the Chinese owner of TikTok to divest from the popular app, which is used by more than 140 million Americans, or otherwise face a ban within the United States.

The centerpiece of the package is US$47.7 billion that would flow through the Defense Department to provide training, equipment, weapons, logistics support and supplies to help Ukraine’s military, as well as US$13.4 billion to replenish US equipment sent to Ukraine and US$20.5 billion for US Armed Forces support in Europe.

It also includes US$9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine structured as a forgivable loan, an idea that former President Trump gave life to when the Senate passed a previous version of the US$95 billion assistance package in February.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who worked for months to get Ukraine aid passed, hailed the vote as a landmark moment.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world. America will always defend democracy in its hour of need. We tell our allies we will stand with you. We tell our adversaries don’t mess with us,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor.

McConnell took to the floor to hail the prosperity the United States has enjoyed because it’s a global leader but told colleagues that that leadership comes with responsibilities to allies who help maintain peace and order throughout much of the world.

And he chastised colleagues who dragged out the debate over helping Ukraine based on what he called the “sheer fiction” that supporting the war is not a vital national security interest.

Iranian oil output and price improve

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly report has said that Iran’s oil production volume increased by 28,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.188 million BPD in March 2024 and heavy oil price also increased by US$3.0 during this period.

The OPEC total crude oil production volume reached 26.604 million bpd in March 2024, showing a 3,000 bpd increase as compared to a month before.

According to this report, the price of each barrel of Iran’s heavy crude oil in March 2024 reached US$83.48 BPD.

The average oil price of OPEC in March 2024 reached US$84.22, showing an increase of US$2.99 BPD.

Back in January, a report released by the US Department of Energy stated that Iran has been the top OPEC member in terms of production increase in 2023, with an increase of 330,000 bpd.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) affiliated with the Department of Energy mentioned in its latest report that the total oil production of Iran was estimated at 2.87 million bpd at the end of 2023. Iran’s oil production was 2.54 million bpd in 2022.

The figures show that total OPEC oil production was 26.89 million bpd in 2023 which shows 630,000 barrels fall year on year. OPEC produced 27.52 million bpd in 2022.

This report has put Iran's oil production in the last month of last year at 3.17 million bpd. Iran was the third-largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq in December 2023.

The 330,000-bpd increase in Iran’s 2023 oil production indicates that sanctions have been ineffective on Iran's oil industry.

Earlier in June 2023, Bloomberg reported that the production and export of Iranian oil in 2023 reached record highs since the country came under US sanctions more than five years ago.

The report published in late June 2023 stated that Iran was shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

A Reuters report, also said in June last year Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

Iran has not released official figures about its oil exports over the past years amid efforts to evade Washington’s sanctions.

 

Pakistan’s antagonized relations with its neighbors

Pakistan's relationships with its neighboring countries have been strained for several decades, with current tensions particularly evident with Iran, Afghanistan, and India. These strained relations stem from a complex history and various geopolitical factors.

Historically, Pakistan enjoyed close ties with Iran, notably during the RCD era. However, following the revolution in Iran, relations soured, partly due to pressure from the United States. US-imposed sanctions on Iran and efforts to isolate it, including influencing Saudi Arabia to sever ties, further exacerbated tensions. Allegations suggest that countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait supported Iraq during its decade-long war with Iran.

The Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, once of significant importance, faced setbacks due to US influence. India, under US pressure, withdrew from the project, citing the threat of economic sanctions. In an attempt to mitigate these challenges, Pakistan turned to Saudi Arabia for crude oil supplies on deferred payment terms.

Despite hopes for improved relations following diplomatic efforts brokered by China between Saudi Arabia and Iran, ongoing cross-border terrorism activities between Pakistan and Iran have hindered progress on projects like the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been marked by fluctuating dynamics, oscillating between cooperation and hostility. India's involvement, including support for anti-Pakistan elements in Afghanistan and participation in infrastructure projects like the Chabahar Port, has further complicated matters, seeking to undermine Pakistan's regional influence.

US foreign policy interests heavily influence the dynamics between India and Pakistan, with the former receiving substantial military support to counterbalance China, often at Pakistan's expense. Some analysts believe that entrenched hard-line positions in both countries will continue to hinder any prospects for improved relations.

Critics argue that Pakistan's foreign policy, historically aligned with US interests, prevents the country from overcoming its most pressing challenges independently. This dependence on external support, particularly from the United States, perpetuates Pakistan's vulnerability in international affairs.

Iranian LPG export on upward trajectory

Iran became the biggest West Asian supplier of Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) last year. Its LPG exports surged 28% to over 11 million tons, according to an analysis of ship tracking data and market intelligence by consultancy Facts Global Energy (FGE). The firm expects exports to continue climbing beyond 12 million tons this year, Bloomberg reported

The increase is driven by rising production from the South Pars gas field as well as greater shipping capacity between Iran and China.

Iran exported 4.71 million tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the first six months of 2023, according to the data released by S&P Global Platts.

Based on the Platts data, Iran's LPG exports loading in June were estimated at around 696,000 million tons, 28.5 percent less than May when 973,260 million tons of LPG was shipped.

Iran's average monthly LPG export in the first half of the past year was 784,833 tons.

Iran’s LPG exports mostly go to China despite the US sanctions, facilitated by Chinese shipowners who have developed an armada of very large gas carriers since sanctions were imposed on Iran in 2014 and then in 2018.

The Islamic Republic’s LPG exports could be higher without the restrictions that international shipping and trading firms face due to the sanctions and allow Iranian exporters to resume access to the global markets.

Liquefied petroleum gas, also referred to as liquid petroleum gas (LPG or LP gas), is a fuel gas that contains a flammable mixture of hydrocarbon gases, specifically propane, n-butane, and isobutane. It can sometimes contain some propylene, butylene, and isobutene.

LPG is used as a fuel gas in heating appliances, cooking equipment, and vehicles. It is increasingly used as an aerosol propellant and a refrigerant, replacing chlorofluorocarbons to reduce damage to the ozone layer. When specifically used as a vehicle fuel, it is often referred to as autogas or even just as gas.

 

 

Beijing nudged Syngenta to withdraw IPO

Chinese authorities nudged Swiss agrichemicals and seeds group Syngenta to withdraw its application for a long-delayed US$9 billion IPO in Shanghai on concerns about the impact a sizeable new offering would have on a volatile market, reports Reuters.

The Chinese state-owned pesticide giant last Friday withdrew its bid for the initial public offering (IPO) saying the decision was taken "after careful consideration of the industry environment and the company's own development strategy".

Syngenta filed to list on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange May 2023 seeking to raise 65 billion yuan (US$8.98 billion) and passed a review by the bourse's listing committee a month later. Its executives said as recently as November 2023 that Syngenta planned to list in 2024.

The company did not secure a green light from China's securities regulator or top leaders at the State Council, a prerequisite for blockbuster IPOs to go ahead, said the four people familiar with the matter.

The planned flotation finally came unstuck after Syngenta, owned by Sinochem, in March received informal instructions from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to pull its bid for the mega listing.

The reason for Syngenta's IPO withdrawal and the way it was managed, have not been reported previously, underscore how Beijing is prioritizing boosting investor confidence in the secondary market over the launch of new equity offerings.

The government's request for Syngenta to scrap its IPO came despite the company's seeds being essential to food security and China's self-reliance in grain production, which the country's leaders, especially President Xi Jinping, have strongly promoted.

The withdrawal resulted from Chinese authorities' concerns over the potential impact of a sizeable IPO on the frail stock market which had a wretched start to the year, said the four people with knowledge of the matter.

Large IPOs have often been cited by analysts as a reason for triggering the plunge of domestic stock markets, as large amounts of money are frozen when subscriptions are taken, sapping liquidity in the secondary market.

China's stock market rout at the beginning of the year came after mainland shares lagged global stocks for three years and with deflation at levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

 

 

Global oil refining capacity at risk

More than a fifth of global oil refining capacity is at risk of closure, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie found in analysis published on Thursday, as gasoline margins weaken and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions mounts.

Of 465 refining assets analyzed, the consultancy ranked about 21% of 2023 global refining capacity at some risk of closure.

Europe and China house the greatest number of high-risk sites, putting about 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity in jeopardy, Wood Mac found, based on its estimate of net cash margins, cost of carbon emissions, ownership, environmental investment and strategic value of refineries.

There are 11 European sites that account for 45% of all high-risk plants.

About 30 European refineries have already shut down since 2009, data from industry body Concawe shows, with nearly 90 still in operation.

This spate of closures has been brought on by competition from newer and more complex plants in the Middle East and Asia as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gasoline margins are expected to weaken by the end of this decade as demand declines and sanctions on Russia ease while expected carbon taxes should also start to bite.

Operating costs could go up so much that "closure may be the only option", said Wood Mac senior oils and chemicals analyst Emma Fox.

Meanwhile, Nigeria's huge Dangote oil refinery could bring to an end decades-long gasoline trade from Europe to Africa worth US$17 billion a year, heaping pressure on European refineries already at risk of closure from heightened competition.

The Dangote refinery, with capacity of up to 650,000 bpd, began production in January but was not included in Wood Mac's analysis.

The seven high-risk sites in China are small-scale independent refineries. Sometimes called 'teapots', these refineries are subject to more stringent government regulations and compete with larger integrated sites that are typically state-owned and more complex.

China holds Boao Forum for Asia

The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2024 opened on Thursday in Boao town located next to the eastern coastal city of Qionghai in Hainan Province, in the South China Sea.

Ban Ki-moon, chairman of the BFA and former United Nations Secretary General, was the first speaker in the opening ceremony of the conference.

In his address, Ban Ki-moon reviewed the challenges facing the world today and encouraged the participants to think about reality with a dialectical perspective and to collectively create the future through responsible actions.

Ban Ki-moon concluded that the urgent climate crisis has led to a historic consensus at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference, but the reality requires the world to take more effective actions to make further progress.

He expressed concern about the uncertain trends in geopolitical and geo-economic spheres, as well as the restructuring of global supply, trade, and investment flows, while inclusive globalization is being sacrificed.

Recalling his years of work at the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon mentioned that he has witnessed both good times and difficult periods. In the "good times," the world enjoyed the benefits of global peace dividends and rapid globalization, while in the "bad days," the world divided into opposing camps and blocs.

He emphasized that under no circumstances should we return to the "bad days," and the only way forward is unity, cooperation, multilateralism, globalization, and an open world economy.

Ban Ki-moon stated that global crises compel us to work together. We face common challenges and should share responsibility. He called upon leaders from Asia and around the globe to step forward, speak truth to power, and take decisive actions, to shape the future through words and deeds, and to live up to the high expectations of the people.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Sri Lankan Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, Samdech Techo Hun Sen, the president of the Supreme Privy Council to the King of the Kingdom of Cambodia, Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Dominica Roosevelt Skerrit, Daren Tang, director general of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), and Mathias Cormann, Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) were among the other speakers of the ceremony.

The Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), initiated by 25 Asian countries and Australia (increased to 28 in 2006), is a non-profit organization that hosts high-level forums for leaders from government, business and academia in Asia and other continents to share their vision on the most pressing issues in this region and the world at large.

BFA is modelled on the World Economic Forum held annually in Davos, Switzerland. Its fixed address is in Boao, Hainan Province, China, which has been the permanent venue for the annual conference since 2002.

US-led UN resolution on Gaza ceasefire vetoed

The United Nations Security Council on Friday turned down a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an Israel-Hamas hostage deal after Russia and China vetoed the measure proposed by the United States.

The resolution, on which Algeria also voted no and Guyana abstained, called for an immediate and sustained ceasefire lasting roughly six weeks that would protect civilians and allow for the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Eleven of the 15 council members voted for the resolution, but the Russia and China vetoes stopped its passage.

The council will meet at 1400 GMT on Saturday to vote on an alternative resolution drafted by elected members of the Security Council, diplomats said.

That resolution demands an immediate ceasefire for the current Muslim holy month of Ramadan, the release of all hostages and an expanded flow of humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

The draft does not include provisions supporting ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire - an element of the US resolution. Washington has been working with Qatar and Egypt to try to broker a deal.

Friday was the first time Washington had backed a text that came up for a vote with the word "ceasefire" in it during the war in Gaza, reflecting a toughening of the Biden administration's stance toward Israel.

Earlier in the five-month-old war, the US was averse to the word ceasefire and vetoed measures that included calls for an immediate ceasefire.

"The vast majority of this council voted in favor of this resolution, but unfortunately Russia and China decided to exercise its veto," US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the Security Council.

She accused Russia and China of vetoing the resolution for cynical and petty reasons. She said they opposed it simply because it was penned by the US and criticized both countries for not condemning Hamas's October 07 attack on Israel.

"For all the fiery rhetoric, we all know that Russia and China are not doing anything diplomatically to advance a lasting peace or to meaningfully contribute to the humanitarian response effort," she told the council after the vote.

The US has wanted any Security Council support for a ceasefire to be linked to the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Palestinian Hamas fighters killed 1,200 people and took 253 captive in their Oct. 7 attack, Israel has said.

Nearly 32,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's subsequent offensive in the Gaza Strip, according to health authorities in the Hamas-ruled enclave.

Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, said the US-led resolution was exceedingly politicized and contained an effective green light for Israel to mount a military operation in Rafah, a city on the southern tip of the Gaza Strip where more than half of the enclave's 2.3 million residents have been sheltering in makeshift tents.

"This would free the hands of Israel and it would result in all of Gaza and its entire population having to face destruction, devastation, or expulsion," Nebenzia told the meeting.

China's UN ambassador, Zhang Jun, criticized the text proposed by the US for not clearly stating its opposition to a planned military operation by Israel in Rafah, which he said could lead to severe consequences. He said Beijing also supported the alternative.

But Thomas-Greenfield said that measure fell short.

"In its current form, that text fails to support sensitive diplomacy in the region. Worse ... it could actually give Hamas an excuse to walk away from the deal on the table," she said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that his country would work with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates to persuade Russia and China to back yet another alternative resolution at the United Nations for a ceasefire in Gaza.

 

 

Gold price tops US$2,200 an ounce

Gold finally surpassed US$2,200 an ounce for the first time on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve indicated that it would press ahead with three rate cuts in 2024 despite elevated inflation.

Spot gold set a new record of US$2,222.39 during the early hours of trading, before retreating to US$2,206.10. US gold futures soared 2.4% to US$2,208.20.

Gold’s latest rally, which started mid-February, is underpinned by longstanding tailwinds including heightened geopolitical risks and increased central bank buying. During March 2024 alone, the safe-haven metal hit new highs on five occasions.

Its rapid ascent, according to Bloomberg columnists has surprised many seasoned market observers, as there hasn’t been a clear catalyst. What has been partially driving bullion is expectations for looser monetary policy in the United States, and that has now been reaffirmed by the Fed.

On Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell continued to highlight officials would like to see more evidence that prices are coming down, but it’s still likely in most people’s view that we will achieve that confidence and there will be rate cuts, he said.

“What we saw last night was the green light really for gold traders to come back in,” said Chris Weston, head of research for Pepperstone Group.

“The Fed have said that right now they’re tolerant of the inflation that we’ve seen, they’re tolerant that the labor market strength is not going to be the impediment,” Weston told Bloomberg.

Speculation around the timing of the Fed’s long-anticipated pivot may have provided the trigger for recent gains, with data showing that traders boosted their net long positions on gold in the week through March 05 by the most since 2019.

The metal stands to benefit even more when US interest rates actually do come down, as bullion-backed exchange traded funds look likely to increase their holdings, according to UBS Group.

On the geopolitical front, there are a number of risks boosting gold’s allure as a haven asset, Russia appears to be gaining the upper hand in its war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas conflict continues unabated and has led to a re-routing of global shipping, while the US presidential election at later this year could prove massively consequential for markets.

Chinese buying has also underpinned prices. As well as the central bank, people have been stocking up on coins, gold bars and jewelry to safeguard their wealth from a year long property downturn and losses in the country’s stock market.

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Iran-China-Russia naval drill in Indian Ocean

The navies of Iran, China, and Russia have initiated joint drills in the northern tip of the Indian Ocean, marking their fifth collaborative military exercise in recent years. Naval delegations from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, and South Africa are present as the observers of the exercises.

Chinese and Russian naval forces have entered Iranian territorial waters to participate in the primary stage of the naval war game, named Maritime Security Belt 2024, near the Gulf of Oman. This international exercise, involving Iran, China, and Russia, underscores a commitment to peace and security in the region.

During a joint press conference with Russian and Chinese commanders, Second Flotilla Admiral Mustafa Taj al-Dini emphasized the strategic significance of this being the fifth joint exercise among the involved countries. He highlighted the objectives of this joint naval drill, including bolstering maritime trade security, combating piracy and terrorism, and fostering cooperation among the participating nations.

According to Taj al-Dini, this security-focused exercise, covering an expansive area of 17,000 square kilometers, aims to address multifaceted challenges. Despite the approaching festivities for the Persian New Year, the spokesperson underscored that security efforts remain steadfast.

Notably, naval units from Iran, China, and Russia, comprising destroyers and missile cruisers, actively contribute to this collaborative initiative.

Iranian naval forces, along with their Chinese and Russian counterparts, have conducted several military drills in recent years to enhance the security and stability of international maritime trade. They have also collaborated in countering piracy and maritime terrorism, exchanging information in naval rescue and relief operations, as well as sharing operational and tactical experiences.

Russia's defense ministry stated that the exercises, running through Friday and involving warships and aviation, would focus on the protection of maritime economic activity.

The Russian defence ministry said its Pacific fleet, led by the Varyag guided missile cruiser and the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, had arrived at Iran’s Chabahar port on Monday to take part in the joint drill.

China’s defense ministry mentioned that the drills aimed at jointly maintaining regional maritime security. China sent its 45th escort task force, consisting of the guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and the comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu, to the exercise.

Last month, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, announced Tehran's plan to hold joint drills with Beijing and Moscow before the end of March, aimed at ensuring regional security.

Providing insights into the strategic maritime efforts, the rear admiral revealed that the mission to safeguard Iran's shipping lines in international waters commenced in 2009 under the direct command of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Emphasizing the unwavering commitment of the Army's strategic naval force, he highlighted their continuous role in ensuring the security of the nation's economic hub in both the Gulf of Aden and the northern Indian Ocean.

The admiral further highlighted the expansion of the security mission beyond securing shipping lines in the Red Sea over the past four years. Currently, the comprehensive management of protection for Iran's shipping lines extends from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal.

The Iranian Navy conducts routine exercises throughout the year. In recent years, Iranian military experts and technicians have made significant progress in developing and manufacturing a diverse range of military equipment, achieving self-sufficiency for the armed forces in the military industry.

In March 2023, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian naval forces staged the 2023 Marine Security Belt war game in the northern parts of the Indian Ocean, marking the fourth joint exercise in recent years. Alongside Chinese and Russian fleets, more than 10 Iranian Navy vessels and three helicopters reportedly took part.

 Courtesy Tehran Times

Pak US relationship a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’

Soon after the results started pouring in following the February 08 general elections in Pakistan, several members of the US Congress, as well as the US State Department, expressed concern over alleged interference in the polls, with the former even calling on President Joe Biden not to recognize the incoming government until a transparent investigation into the allegations. I invite the readers to read a blog posted as back as on May 03, 2022.

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spy plane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

 

Pakistan: Instability coming down the road

Pakistan’s elections held on February 08, were meant to bring stability to the country after almost two years of turmoil but the outcome of the polls has deepened political divisions. It will also bring more instability to a nuclear-armed, 240-million strong country already shaky at best in a critically important geostrategic region.

In the months leading up to the long-awaited elections, the judiciary and the military pursued a dual track strategy: ensure that the highly popular former prime minister, Imran Khan, is never able to run for political office again and reinvigorate the political fortunes of Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).

Following his loss of power in a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, Khan was relentlessly pursued by the judiciary which eventually handed him three sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets and an illegal marriage, for a total of 24 years. He was barred from politics and sent to gaol. His Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) was disbanded, its electoral symbol (the cricket bat) outlawed, and its members banned from running as PTI members.

Nawaz Sharif—a convicted corrupt politician who’s had an ambivalent relationship with the army for 40 years, was brought back from a four-year self-exile in London as an alternative to Khan. Soon after Nawaz’s return to Pakistan the corruption charges he faced were dropped and his life ban from politics was lifted.

The path was now clear for his smooth return to power. However, what was meant to be a walk in the park for Nawaz and the PML(N) turned out very differently on election day. The millions of pro-Imran Khan supporters were not interested in singing off the score sheet handed over to them.

Even with all the measures taken to ensure there was no level playing field, and the ballot stuffing at a number of polling stations, the PML(N), was only able to win the second largest number of seats (75).

The former PTI members—running as independents—won the largest number of seats, 93 of the 266 up for grabs. The independents’ total seats could increase as they are contesting the result of over a dozen others they claim have been stolen from them. Nevertheless, Nawaz declared victory, and will try—with great difficulty, to form a coalition government with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto. The only bond between the PML(N) and the PPP is that their hatred of each other is slightly less than their hatred of the PTI.

International reaction to these elections, including from the US, the UK and the EU, was negative, with several countries calling for investigations into the allegations of vote-tempering and pre-poll obstructions. The Australian government also made it clear that that it was concerned that ‘the Pakistani people were restricted in their choice, since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections’.

Notwithstanding the evidence to the contrary, much of it posted on social media platforms even though mobile internet connections were restricted, the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, commended the Electoral Commission for running such a successful election and stressed the significance of free and unhindered participation by Pakistani people in exercising their right to vote.

Similarly, the caretaker prime minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, believed that the ‘nation had accepted the results’ and the country needed to move on. Moreover, he brushed aside international criticism of the elections as ‘not that big a deal’.

Despite the compromised nature of these polls, a PML(N)-led coalition government is the most likely—but not certain—outcome of the elections. According to the latest reports, it would be led by Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother who was prime minister after Khan was ousted in April 2022.

The real power will still be held behind the scenes by Nawaz Sharif. Given the fragility of the coalition, which will include smaller parties and non-PTI-leaning independents, this will be a weak government with little legitimacy. This is unfortunate given that whoever is prime minister will have to make some particularly difficult decisions on the economy, handle adroitly the country’s foreign relations, and manage a growing terrorist threat.

Pakistan is an economic mess, with 40% of the population living under the poverty line, an inflation rate that has hit 30%, a rupee whose value has halved in 10 years, and barely enough foreign exchange to cover the cost of imports for a month or so.

The country avoided economic meltdown in August 2023 by securing a standby arrangement of US$3 billion with the IMF. However, this bailout runs out in March and a new one—the 24th in Pakistan’s history—will need to be negotiated.

The IMF will undoubtedly demand that the government implement more austerity measures, including continuing to reduce subsidies on essential commodities. Imposing draconian economic measures on an already struggling population will not be easy, particularly given Nawaz’s lack of popular support. We can expect serious social unrest down the road.

A Shehbaz-led government will also have to deal with the growing terrorist threat, mainly but not solely from the Afghanistan-based Pakistan Taliban (TTP), which has continued to increase since the Taliban took over in neighbouring Afghanistan in August 2021. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that the Taliban government of Afghanistan cease to support the TTP. But the Taliban isn’t about to turn on the TTP, an organisation with which it has deep ideological, operational, historical and tribal links. Kabul also knows that the Pakistani military doesn’t want to escalate this issue by pursuing the TTP unto Afghan territory. Moreover, given Pakistan’s poor fiscal position, it cannot afford another expensive military operation. Accordingly, Pakistan-Afghan relations will probably continue to be frozen, and the scourge of terrorism to fester.

This will not be well received by the leaders in Beijing who persistently press Pakistan to do more against the terrorists roaming the countryside regularly killing Chinese workers and officials working on the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Pakistan already has some 10,000 security personnel dedicated solely to the protection of Chinese interests in Pakistan. Still, relations with China will continue on an even keel or even deepen. It was after all under Nawaz’s third stint (2013-2018), that CPEC started.

Pakistanis can expect Indo-Pakistan relations to possibly improve. The personal dynamics between Nawaz and Indian PM Narendra Modi have been good in the past. Nawaz attended Modi’s 2014 inauguration and Modi visited Nawaz in Lahore in December 2015—the first visit by an Indian leader in more than a decade. But while Nawaz would probably be interested in improving relations with Delhi, it was the perception that he was warming up too much to the Indians when he was in power which critically contributed to the military orchestrating his downfall in 2017. Shehbaz, under the guidance of Nawaz, is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Despite Washington’s public criticism of Pakistan’s seriously flawed election, the Biden administration is committed to ‘strengthening its security cooperation’ with Islamabad regardless as to who eventually becomes prime minister. Pakistan continues to be a valuable regional partner, being in a unique position to monitor developments in Afghanistan.

Finally, whilst Washington may have had issues with the election process, it will absolutely not miss Imran Khan, who repeatedly accused the US of having been instrumental, with the help of Pakistan’s military, in his downfall in April 2022.

US Secretary of State meeting with General Asim Munir—the man who effectively runs Pakistan, in Washington only a few weeks before the elections only reinforced this common perception in Pakistan. However, given Munir’s massive miscalculation on the elections, his days may well be numbered.

How long the next prime minister will last in office is anyone’s guess, but given that no prime minister has ever completed their term in Pakistan’s 75-year history, it is suspect the odds are poor that Shehbaz Sharif will break that tradition.

Courtesy: The Strategist

 

What after China recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan?

On 30 January, 2024, President Xi Jinping provided further evidence that China formally recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. China’s recognition of the Taliban is its latest and most outrageous slap to the face of the so called democracies, led by United States, who have not recognized Taliban government as yet.

The opponents of Afghanistan have immediately termed this a dangerous international precedent and a morally moribund approach to international relations which puts selfish resource security concerns firmly ahead of human rights and global wellbeing as China’s primary philosophical approach to international affairs.

They say the event is representative of the fundamental reason strategic competition with China is so important. When distilled to its purist form, it is a protracted attritional duel between liberal democracy and authoritarian socialism that is quickly devolving into a slap fight.

It is alleged that prior to the Taliban’s resurgence, China maintained a cooperative relationship with the Afghan government, which included security collaboration against Uyghur militants.

They also say, following the Taliban’s takeover, China initiated engagement with the new regime, aiming to prevent terrorism from affecting its regional interests and to secure its investments, including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative.

The ethical dimensions of China’s interactions with the Taliban are seemingly complex, even on the surface. On one hand, China’s engagement is driven by security concerns and economic interests, particularly in mining and infrastructure. On the other hand, the Taliban’s lack of international recognition and domestic legitimacy raises questions about the long-term viability of these agreements.

China’s promise of economic and development support to the Taliban, in exchange for security assurances, reflects a strategic approach that prioritizes resource stability and the suppression of Uyghur militancy.

This is consistent with the broader narrative that China’s rise should not be feared, rather it should be welcomed as a blessing for global development and prosperity. In this regard, China’s policy towards Afghanistan could be described as clear and consistent with its approach to any country, emphasising non-interference and respect for sovereignty.

Critics of Taliban say, the practical aspects of its engagement with the Taliban present a moral quandary that is an affront to the global norms for free societies. The Taliban’s abuses of human rights are well recorded. Their suppression of women and girls, assault on freedom of speech, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and torture neatly reflect the same accusations levelled against China.

They say, it makes sense that China has added the Taliban to its collection of thugs, villains, and reprobates which are considered its closest allies.

President Xi receiving the credentials of the Taliban Ambassador to Beijing could, perhaps, be perceived as an arcane diplomatic tradition. The reality, however, is that in doing so the Chinese government has provided tacit recognition of the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan.

This has dreadful implications for the women, children, resistance fighters, and civil society activists who have all been brave enough to stay or unable to leave and who should all be afforded the same freedoms as me. It also sets the preconditions for the Chinese to pull levers of influence to broaden official recognition; levers established through debt dependencies that compromise the sovereign decision-making capacity of beholden nations. It is an anathema to how democracies want to act domestically and internationally.

There is an additional, not-so-hidden subtext at this stage of the slap fight between liberal democracy and autocratic socialism. China has taken a clumsy swing at the face of every country that tried and failed to bring sustainable democracy to Afghanistan for 20 years, and who dramatically left in ignominy just over two years ago. Sadly, it has landed as a low blow that could have dangerous consequences.

 

 

Bangladesh: Apparel export to EU falls 20%

Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the European Union (EU) in the 11 months, from January to November 2023, declined by 19.92% to 16.26 billion euro from 20.30 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Exporters said that the shipment of readymade garments to the EU market decreased in recent months due to the economic slowdown caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Global brands and buyers also placed orders in lower quantity due to the election time in Bangladesh but the orders started to increase after the national election in the country.

They hoped that the export to EU would rebound in the next quarter as buyers started to increase their orders thanks to easing inflation.

According to data from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, the readymade garment imports of the EU from the world in January-November 2023 fell by nearly 10% cent to 82.71 billion euro from 91.89 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Apparel imports of the EU from China in the first 11 months of 2023 declined by 21.42% to 21.15 billion euro from 26.92 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

Although China remained the top apparel exporter to the EU in value, the Eurostat data showed that, in terms of volume, Bangladesh emerged as the highest knitwear exporter to the market in January-November 2023.

Bangladesh’s woven garment exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 were reported at 6.89 billion kilogram while those of China were 5.74 billion kilogram.

In value terms, Bangladesh’s knitwear exports to the EU in January-November of 2023 were reported at 9.94 billion euro against China’s exports of 10.48 billion euro during the period under review.

Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association President Faruque Hassan recently said that apparel exports to the EU would come back on a positive track in the second quarter of 2024 as the inflation was coming down in the western countries and retail sales were getting better.

He also said that not only Bangladesh but also all the major RMG suppliers witnessed negative growth in the EU and the United States as the global demand decreased due to the economic turmoil.

Apparel imports of the EU from Turkey in January-November of 2023 declined by 13.42% to 9.20 billion euro from 10.62 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

India’s RMG exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2023 also fell by 11.87% to 3.81 billion euro from 4.33 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

As against this, apparel imports of the EU from Vietnam during January-November of 2023 grew by 2.48% to 3.49 billion euro from 3.40 billion euro during the same period of 2022.

China committed to work with Hasina

Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen has congratulated Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for successfully holding of the 12th general election and Awami League’s victory.

Ambassador Yao conveyed warm congratulations and best wishes from Chinese leaders to Hasina.

The Chinese ambassador called on Hasina at Ganabhaban and reaffirmed that Chinese leaders are committed to working with her to carry forward the long-established friendship, enhance mutual trust, and deepen practical cooperation – thereby uplift the China-Bangladesh strategic partnership of cooperation to a new height.

Ambassador Yao noted that both China and Bangladesh are at a critical stage of development and revitalization, and China would always be the most trustworthy partner and the most reliable friend of Bangladesh on the way to modernization.

Under the guidance of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, China and Bangladesh have set a model of mutual respect and win-win cooperation, said the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka.

China will firmly support Bangladesh in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and in opposing external interference, it said.

China will also support Bangladesh in maintaining unity and stability, and in playing a more active role in international and regional affairs, said the embassy.

China is committed to assisting Bangladesh in realizing the ‘Vision 2041’ and the dream of ‘Sonar Bangla,’ it said.

Ambassador Yao said that China is prepared to strengthen all-round cooperation with Bangladesh, and take due actions to facilitate and expand trade and investment with Bangladesh, promote high-quality China-Bangladesh Belt and Road cooperation, and make its own contribution to realizing ‘Smart Bangladesh’.