Sunday, 27 October 2024

Bangladesh: Performance of interim government

Nearly three months have passed that the interim government (IG) has been in charge of a country devastated beyond comprehension. We the mere mortals, struggling to forget the nightmarish 15 years, can be forgiven for nurturing very high expectations from the new dispensation.

It will do us well to remember that the IG is not the caretaker government (CTG) of the past. It is very unique, given the circumstances in which it came to power—a popular youth-led uprising has validated not only the IG’s assumption of power but has also, ipso facto, granted approval for any and all legal actions it undertakes to rectify the damage to the nation’s institutions and agencies. The mutilation done to the nation would require more than run of the mill actions or traditional approach.

In passing it should be stressed that raising the issue of Hasina’s resignation at this point in time is out of place, some may see this as being ulteriorly motivated, and reeking of conspiracy.

It is of no consequence whether a person who assumed power in a dubious manner, was deposed through a popular uprising—there can be no greater mandate than this—and sought exile of their own volition, has tendered an official letter of resignation. We must admit that the president’s recent remarks regarding this have mystified us.

The various reform committee gives us a good idea of the sectoral reforms the IG wants to undertake. Unique situation requires unique response that may not necessarily conform to the normal methods and means of administering a country.

But while the IG goes about fixing things, it should keep the people informed about its policies and plan of action for rectification. The IG should keep in mind that although it is not bound by any timeframe and its framework of reference is very wide, its time limit is also not open-ended. And a “reasonable” timeframe is open to various interpretations. What the IG is doing should also be visible.

The first thing that still needs to be fully addressed is the administration, which seems to be influenced by the lingering presence of the Awami League. Reportedly, many beneficiaries of the past regime continue in important appointments. The longer they stay in the administration the more are the risks they pose to the successful implementation of the IG’s reform plans. The significance of the manufactured unrest in the RMG sector, sabotage of oil tankers, and various demands from different professional groups are well-orchestrated actions to nip the plans of the IG in the bud.

Apparently, it would seem that the administration is not moving fast enough for some quarter’s liking, and a feature post-revolution is the regime of intimidation and coercion imposed on certain quarters. While that is understandable under the circumstances, making haste while sorting out the muck of the last 15 years may be counterproductive.

The public has certain expectations as well as grievances, and some of these are manifested in the student outburst, demonstrated in their siege of the High Court for removal of judges appointed during the Hasina regime where personal fealty triumphed over qualification and merit. The latest outburst is against the person in Bangabhaban for reasons mentioned.

One of the gripes the students have, and justifiably so, is the continuation of some senior bureaucrats who thrived under the Hasina regime, and who were complicit in the destruction of the state institutions and misuse of the state agencies for partisan gains. This goes for all sectors.

The education sector was a target of the students too. But witch-hunting is not the answer. Admittedly, the public universities were caderised from the vice chancellor down to the junior most lecturer. Most of them did not meet the minimum requirements of the post. One might say that it was a long-term plan to destroy the backbone of the nation by destroying the education sector.

It would also seem that the process of accountability is not moving fast enough. One hears the question “Where have all the crooks gone, and how?” Indeed, one may ask, once again, where have all the crooks gone? And by crooks, I mean all those that sought sanctuary inside the safety of the cantonments across the country after the student-led revolution that has been anointed with the very appropriate appellation of Monsoon Revolution, and many others who made good their escape quite a few days after the assumption of office of the IG. In fact, there is a general suspicion that the beneficiaries of the previous government may still be calling the shots.

A passing reference was made to this subject in one of my previous columns, but time has come to accord the issue more than a cursory glance. It is my distinct impression that the matter has been deliberately swept under the carpet hoping that, Bangalee memory being short, the matter would be forgotten. Well, not so soon.

A few questions need to be answered by the relevant individuals in positions of responsibility. Feigning ignorance will not sit well with the common man, who feels that allowing those responsible for bringing so much misery to the people—through wanton loot and plunder, siphoning billions out of the country, and particularly those directly responsible for the deaths of a thousand and the maiming of several times more—soils the blood of the martyrs. They must be held accountable.

Of the 170 million Bangladeshis, only 600 or so sought refuge inside the military establishments. Among them were politicians and senior members of the law enforcing agencies. The question is why. They must have done something wrong that they feared would incur public wrath. In fact, these were the people who would have left the country sooner but somehow couldn’t. Some of their cleverer and smarter colleagues had abandoned the Awami League boat no sooner than they realized that it had started taking in water.

In fact, abandoning the followers and leaving the country furtively for safer places during hard times has been the hallmark of the party leadership. History will bear out my comments. Therefore, to see the leader living up to the party tradition after August 05 was not a surprise.

My question is, in the future, will highly secured places within the country be used as sanctuaries for those responsible for killing democracy, looting public wealth, and committing the kinds of misdeeds that those seeking protection in the cantonments are alleged to have committed? Additionally, we are still at a loss to explain how many of these individuals managed to leave the country and who guaranteed them a safe exit.

The ultimate goal is to hold a participatory all-inclusive and acceptable election. Having said that, holding elections without fixing the systemic aberrations would take us back to square one. That would denigrate the sacrifice of the martyrs of the Monsoon Revolution. And it shall not be allowed to happen.

 Courtesy: Daily Star

Saturday, 26 October 2024

Philippines: US proxy in South China Sea region

Nothing better captures the Philippines' geostrategic indispensability than the unfolding drama over the deployment of the US Typhon missile system to the Southeast Asian nation.

The state-of-the-art midrange capability (MRC) weapons system, which has a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, is crucial to deterring any future Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Beijing has repeatedly warned Manila against hosting such platforms, thus raising the risk of a "Cuban missile crisis" style showdown in the future.

Richard Heydarian says, it is a geopolitical risk well worth taking if it allows the Southeast Asian nation to accelerate its own military modernization and, more broadly, its emergence as an increasingly capable and pivotal player in the Indo-Pacific.

Manila is not shying away from a potential diplomatic crisis over hosting the missile system. If anything, top Philippine officials are also exploring not just deployment but the acquisition of Typhons and other high-end American weapons system.

Trump also the warmonger

Biden administration leading the charge for Israel’s horrific genocide – now expanding into a broader, regional war – and fueling the war in Ukraine with no end in sight, Republicans are now working overtime to rebrand Donald Trump as a dove.

Let the world not forget:

 Trump nearly kicked off a full scale war with Iran by assassinating General Soleimani.

Trump with Democratic support, co-signed a coup in Bolivia and attempted a coup in Venezuela.

Donald Trump set the stage for Israel’s bloodbath in Gaza and the West Bank by formally recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Donald Trump is many things, a predator, a crude bigot and a con man.

While Democrats railed against Trump’s domestic agenda (most of the time) throughout his term, in virtually every instance the “Vote Blue No Matter Who” crowd threw their full weight behind Trump’s constant foreign provocations.

Trump’s warmongering ways for as long as he’s been a figure on the national stage – particularly during his term in the White House.

Trump and his allies are trying to rewrite history and make us forget his warmongering ways. But we know the truth.

The world must not forget that Trump and the Republicans are funded by the same weapons manufacturers and fossil fuel extractors as Democrats operating at every level of government.

They may dislike his uncouth rhetoric. They may finger-wag his racism. They may object to his weaponization of the courts and federal agencies (though they won’t hesitate to use the same in their own favor).

In co-signing genocide, provoking endless wars, and serving the forces of the American empire, Democrats and Donald Trump fit together hand in glove.

Syria intercept Israeli missile attack

Syrian air defense systems successfully intercepted an Israeli missile attack early Saturday, according to the state-run Sana news agency.

The strikes targeted military sites in the southern and central regions of Syria, with the assault commencing around 2300 GMT.

Missiles were reportedly launched from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and parts of Lebanon. Military sources indicated that several missiles were shot down, although efforts are ongoing to assess the full impact of the attack. There has been no immediate information regarding casualties or damage.

In a related development, Israel announced early Saturday that its military had conducted "precise strikes" against military targets in Iran.

Explosions were heard in Tehran as Israeli army spokesman Rear Adm. Danial Hagari confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces were targeting sites in Tehran, Meshed, and a power station in Karaj. 

Condemnation of Israeli attack on Iran

It may not be wrong to say that Israel having killed thousands in Gaza and Lebanon is now attacking Iran directly with regular intervals. One can say with complete confidence that Israel is doing all this under the patronage of United States. It is worth noting that some of the Muslim countries have condemned Saturday’s attack on Iran, with the request to apply restraint.   

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms.

“The Kingdom affirms its firm position in its rejection of the continued escalation in the region and the expansion of the conflict that threatens the security and stability of the countries and peoples of the region,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Riyadh also urged all parties to “exercise the utmost restraint and reduce escalation”, warning of the ramifications of continuing military conflicts in the region.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry also released a statement in response to Israel’s overnight attacks, labelling the strikes a “clear violation of international law” that “seriously undermine regional security”.

“Malaysia calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to the cycle of violence,” the statement said.

The Foreign Ministry added that Israel’s continued attacks on countries in the Middle East is bringing the region closer to the brink of a wider war.

Iraq

Iraqi Shia cleric and head of National Wisdom Movement, Ammar Hakim, has strongly condemned recent Israeli attacks on Iranian cities, expressing solidarity with the Iranian people, their leadership, and government.

Hakim urged the international community to unite in countering the spread of Israeli influence, which he argued violates international charters and norms. He warned that Israel’s actions threaten to escalate conflicts, extending violence beyond Palestine and Lebanon into Syria, Iran, and other nations.

Hakim called on the United Nations and the Security Council to take decisive action to prevent Israel’s behavior from further destabilizing the region.

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Pakistan

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif stated on Saturday that Pakistan firmly condemns Israel's recent aggression against Iran and stands with Iran and its neighbors in their pursuit of peace.

He also called on all parties involved to exercise restraint to prevent further escalation. On his social media platform X, the prime minister posted, “Deeply concerned by the recent act of Israeli aggression against Iran. Such actions threaten regional peace and stability and violate sovereignty and international law.”

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Kuwait

Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strong condemnation of Israel’s recent military action against Iran, describing it as part of a broader policy aimed at destabilizing the region through violations of national sovereignty.

In a statement released Saturday, the ministry highlighted that Israel’s aggression against Iran exemplifies a disruptive approach that endangers the security of the entire region and disregards international laws and norms.

The ministry called on the international community and the UN Security Council to take responsibility in curbing these actions, which threaten the region’s future and the welfare of its people. It emphasized the importance of decisive steps to uphold regional security and stability, grounded in international laws and treaties.

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United Arab Emirates 

The UAE has strongly condemned Israel’s military strikes on Iran, and expressed its deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region.
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Oman

Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned Israel’s recent attack on Iranian territory, calling it a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and international law.

The ministry stated that Israel’s latest act of aggression attempted to target military sites in Tehran province early Saturday, but the assault reportedly failed to achieve its objectives. This incident, it noted, is part of a broader pattern of Israeli hostilities in the region.

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PSX benchmark index inches closer to 90,000

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bullish sentiments throughout the week ended on October 25, 2024. The benchmark KSE-100 index recorded its highest-ever closing, just shy of the 90,000 mark ‑ closing at 89,994 points, up by 5.6%WoW.

This marked the highest weekly return in 27 weeks and 47th highest weekly return since the index's inception.

More importantly, KSE30 index also reached all-time high at 28,395 points.

The week started with positive momentum buoyed by settlement of political noise following the passage of stalled 26th Constitutional Amendment.

The optimism consolidated with swing of corporate result announcements and favorable economic developments.

According to AKD Securities, the rally was broad-based, with 80 out of 100 companies delivering positive returns.

Leading sectors were Fertilizer, Cement, and Banks, primarily due to strong annual growth in results. On the macro front, current account posted a surplus for the second consecutive month at US$115 million for September 2024.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$18 million to US$11.0 billion as of October 18, 2024.

Market participation also improved significantly, with average daily traded volume rising by 23%WoW to 532 million shares from 432 million shares a week ago.

The PKR remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at 277.6 to a US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: IT exports surged 42%YoY in September 2024, 2) Banking sector deposits were up by 19%YoY to PKR31.3 trillion at end September 2024, 3) Sales tax on tractors hiked to 14% from 10%, 4) Loans to private sector were up 4.9% to PKR8.4 trillion at end September 2024, and 5) Nepra approves KE's generation tariff with key adjustments.

Cement, Refinery, and Mutual Funds were amongst the top performers, while Modarabas, Textile composites, and Vanaspati & allied industries were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$16.4 million. Mutual Funds and other organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$20.4 million.

Top performing scripts of the week were: KOHC,CHCC, AICL, KEL, and ATRL, while laggards included: ILP, PIBTL, LOTCHEM, IBFL, and NESTLE.

Market is expected to remain positive, with primary focus on the upcoming MPC meeting, where an anticipated rate cut could further bolster market momentum.

Despite the recent rally, valuations remain attractive, with the market trading at a P/E of 4.0x and offering a dividend yield of 11.2%.

AKD Securities recommends focusing on sectors that stand to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yield stocks that are likely to re-rate as yields converge with fixed-income returns.

Top picks include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

Friday, 25 October 2024

Israel strikes military targets in Iran

Israel has launched direct airstrikes against Iran in a high-stakes retaliatory attack that brings the Middle East closer to a regional war.

The Israeli military said it had completed its air attack on Saturday morning, hitting missile manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas inside Iran. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been completed.

Iranian air defences said Israel attacked military targets in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam and that “limited damage” was caused to some locations.

A senior US official described the strikes as “extensive”, “precise” and against military targets across Iran. The US did not participate in the strikes, the official said, but worked with the Israeli government to encourage a low-risk attack with no civilian harm.

“The effect was a proportionate self-defence response. The effect is to deter future attacks and to degrade Iran’s abilities to launch future attacks.”

The official stressed that the US considered the operation to be an “end to the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran”.

“This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran – we had a direct exchange in April and that was closed off and now we’ve had this direct exchange again.”

At least seven explosions were reported over the capital, Tehran, and nearby Karaj as well as the eastern city of Mashhad just after 2.30am local time on Saturday, as Israeli jets struck military targets in the country.

Iranian media initially appeared to downplay the airstrikes, noting that Tehran’s airport was operating normally. State TV reported several strong explosions heard around the capital, while the state news agency, IRNA, said there had been no casualties. There was no immediate official comment about the source of explosions, which Iranian news outlets reported were under investigation. Air defence systems were activated around the country.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took the rare step of acknowledging the attack on Iran, in a confirmation that a decades-old shadow war between the enemy states has now firmly moved into the open.

Before Israel launched the airstrikes on Saturday, Iran had repeatedly warned there were “no red lines” for Iran on the issue of defending itself. Last week, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also indirectly threatened US forces against operating in Israel after Washington dispatched a Thaad advanced missile defence system battery and 100 troops to aid its ally amid the tensions.

The White House was notified shortly before Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran, a spokesperson said. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, had said on Wednesday that Israel’s retaliation should not lead to greater escalation.