US Election: A race like no other in history

Immediately after US President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race, a move not seen since President Lyndon Johnson stepped back at the height of the Vietnam War, a question suddenly arose. What path would Vice President Kamala Harris take to try and beat Donald Trump?

“Americans are going to have to choose between moving forward or backward, between hope and hate, between unity and division,” Biden said. “We have to decide—do we still believe in honesty, decency, respect, freedom, justice and democracy.”

The Republican nominee had been on a winning streak of late, avoiding a spotlight on his historic criminal conviction, pending trials or even repeated references to a fictional serial killer.

The media spent almost a month focused on Biden, his age and botched debate performance (Biden, at 81, is three years older than Trump).

Kamala wasted no time providing answers to the question. Her campaign is focusing on Trump’s status as a convicted felon, his various other legal entanglements, including being found liable for sexual abuse, and his starring role in blowing up abortion rights.

“I know Donald Trump’s type,” said the 59-year-old Kamala, a former US senator, state attorney general and district attorney.

Francis Wilkinson writes in Bloomberg Opinion that from here to November, the prosecutor should prosecute the predator. 

Polls showed the race tightening with Kamala’s entry, with more enthusiasm among Black and younger voters. Republicans are already trying to use immigration against her, despite Trump arguably being the main reason a bipartisan immigration reform bill was killed.

Then there’s the question of whether Americans are ready to elect the first female president.

Trump, who has a history of racist and misogynistic statements, risks alienating some of the very voters he needs if he pursues that track this time.

Many prominent Republicans however have already started racial attacks on Kamala, calling her “the DEI candidate.” In short, this is a race like no other in US history.

The next step will be for Kamala to select a running mate ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

As the new race was forming up this week, Biden addressed the nation, framing his decision to bow out as a way of uniting the country around a new generation of leaders. He also warned of what he’s said is the existential peril democracy faces in November. 

Courtesy: Bloomberg 

Wanted War Criminal

Pezeshkian emphasizes unity

In a recent interview with the media outlet of the office of the Leader of Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian underscored the importance of adhering to the Leader’s general policies as a crucial factor in resolving disputes and fostering national unity.

“We have the general policies of the Leader, which I have consistently referred to as our guiding light throughout the debates and elections,” Pezeshkian stated.

“These policies clearly define our goals.”

He further explained that it is now the responsibility of experts, wise individuals, managers, and officials to develop comprehensive programs in alignment with these policies.

“If we accept these principles and draft laws that conform to the system's policies, and hold ourselves accountable for their implementation, disputes and conflicts will naturally become meaningless,” Pezeshkian added.

During his detailed conversation with KHAMENEI.IR, Pezeshkian delved into his administration’s strategy for engaging with various sectors of the country.

He also discussed the criteria for selecting cabinet members and outlined the overarching policies and approaches that will guide his government over the next four years.

Pezeshkian turned his attention to cultural issues, advocating for self-improvement as the primary solution.

“Regarding cultural matters, we must first correct ourselves,” he emphasized. “There is no need to criticize others; we should begin by criticizing ourselves.”

Pezeshkian elaborated that personal integrity and genuine concern for the public are essential. “If I am a righteous person with good morals, if I truly care for the people and they recognize my sincerity, there is no way they will dislike me or refuse to follow my behavior and ethics,” he said.

He criticized the current conduct of some leaders, noting that their actions often repel the public. “Our behavior and conduct are such that when people observe them, they find them off-putting. Why should they emulate us? Why should they make themselves like us?”

Pezeshkian’s comments reflect a broader vision for his administration, prioritizing adherence to established policies and personal accountability as the foundations for national cohesion and cultural renewal.

The inauguration ceremony of the president-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will be held in the Parliament next week on Tuesday afternoon.

A ceremony will be held on Sunday to present the decree for his presidency, with the Leader of Islamic Revolution and the country’s high-ranking officials in attendance.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index declines 2.61%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced volatility throughout the week ended on July 29, 2024, heavily influenced by political noise. The benchmark index lost 2,088 points 0r 2.61%WoW at close at 78,029 points.

With Pakistan's agenda yet to be included in the IMF board meeting, authorities are focusing on fulfilling other external financing requirements, with efforts including visit to China for possible debt rescheduling, especially of power producers.

The Finance Minister engaged with global rating agencies, Fitch and Moody's, aiming for a possible improvement in the country's credit rating to facilitate capital raising through external sources.

In the last T-Bills auction, yields dropped by 30-56 bps, indicating market expectations of a 50-100bps cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday. However, experts anticipate the MPC to maintain the status quo due to the re-emergence of strong inflationary pressures from food supply disruptions and recently announced revenue measures in the FY25 budget.

The July 2024 inflation is expected to clock in at 10.96%YoY as compared to 12.57%YoY in the preceding month. On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank declined by US$397 million to US$9.03 billion as at July 19, 2024.

With the said volatility in market, participation decreased by 27.3%WoW, with the average daily traded volume falling to 337 million shares, from 464 million shares a week ago.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained flat against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at 278.3/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included:1) Forex reserves declined by US$369 millio, 2) Income estimates slashed to PKR9.1 trillion, 3) Auto financing registered downward trend for second straight year and 4) GoP announced to pull out of fuel pricing process, giving OMCs free hand.

Leasing, Vanaspati & allied industries and Textile spinning were amongst the top performers, while ETF’s, Inv. Banks/ cos., and Jute were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by mutual funds with a net sell of US$5.0 million. Foreigners and insurance co. absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.6 million and US$4.4 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PAKT, GADT, JVDC, FFBL and LCI, while laggards included: NCPL, NPL, KAPCO, INIL and FCEPL.

Going forward, market’s focus will primarily be on the MPC meeting scheduled for Monday, with any rate cut to boost investor’s confidence and draw increased attention to the cyclical sector.

Additionally, the anticipated approval from the IMF executive board next month is likely to support bullish momentum.

Sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms would remain in the limelight.

Netanyahu speech: Nothing but heap of lies

The world knew what to expect when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walked in to address the elected members. Every word of his speech was laced with the same tired lies that have been repeatedly debunked for the last 10 months – and the last 76 years.

It is on record that at least 40,000 Palestinians are confirmed dead and experts estimate the final death toll will be as high as 186,000. Hundreds of thousands more have been gravely injured, including children who have had to get their limbs amputated without anesthesia because Israel is blockading medical supplies and destroying health infrastructure.

Yet Netanyahu claimed that civilian casualties were “practically none.”

Israel has continuously blocked aid from entering Gaza, shutting down access points and slow-walking aid with “security checks.” Israeli protesters have been caught on camera multiple times destroying food trucks. For months experts have warned that Gaza is descending into famine, and shocking photos emerged of emaciated children that looked identical to images of Jewish prisoners in Nazi concentration camps.

Yet Netanyahu claimed that if Gaza isn’t getting enough food “it’s because Hamas is stealing it.”

Israel has sabotaged or walked away from multiple ceasefire negotiations, repeatedly rejecting proposals that Hamas accepted which included every key provision – such as returning all remaining hostages that Israel says they want. They’ve resisted calls for even a temporary ceasefire to allow for the process of peace.

Yet Netanyahu claimed that it is Hamas that doesn’t want a ceasefire.

While in the US Netanyahu refused to tell the truth. He perpetuated the dangerous lie that non-violent protesters “stand with Hamas” and are funded by Iran.

With those protesters outside of Congress his lies would never be loud enough to drown out protestors’ demand for justice for Palestine.

While protestors marched and demanded justice, the vast majority of the members of Congress – from both of the corporate parties – gave this genocidal monster a hero’s welcome.

Vice President Kamala Harris (now the presumptive Democratic nominee) issued a statement condemning the protest and spreading dangerous propaganda that threatens the very fundamentals of protected speech.

She showed her true colors. After days of glowing coverage that Kamala would be “better on Gaza” than the current president, she revealed her allegiance with Israeli propaganda by repeating Netanyahu’s talking points.

The election has radically transformed in the space of a few days, but as Joe Biden once said, nothing has changed fundamentally.

 

Outlook for BRICS Common Currency

The prime objective of formation of BRICS, in my opinion, is to “end the US hegemony by getting rid of involvement of US currency in trade and above all US dominated settlement system”. It is not an easy task because creation of an alternative currency and dependable settlement system is a mammoth job, especially because United States would not like to see end to its hegemony.

De-dollarization of the global financial system is the long-term goal of the bloc amid Western economic sanctions on several members. For example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE might face rising pressures to sell oil to China and India in a currency acceptable and dependable. Trade in general is set to be increasingly carried out in the bloc’s currencies. Nonetheless, a common BRICS currency is not an easy task given the Gulf countries’ heavy links with the West and the Petrodollar, large economic disparities among members, and the strength of the Western financial system. 

BRICS economies will remain heterogeneous, with marked differences in their stage and pace of development, and in economic size and structure. For example India, Egypt and Ethiopia will grow at the fastest rates, boosted by great catch-up potential. China will benefit from its high-tech manufacturing sector. Non-oil diversification strategies will buttress activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In contrast, Brazil, Iran, Russia and South Africa are set to grow at underwhelming clips due to lackluster progress on structural reforms. 

The western analysts believe, “Expansion will bolster the BRICS geopolitical significance—provided the group can reconcile its internal tensions—and its combined economic muscle, but the direct economic impact will be small. The BRICS group is unlikely to become a solid geopolitical and economic construction, regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall.” 

 The biggest agreement is, “Despite some pressure, the Petrodollar will remain the preferential currency for trade. A greater role of BRICS and other emerging markets in global trade may create more natural demand for alternatives to Petrodollars, but this has not happened so far. The higher share of CNY in trade invoicing doesn’t seem to be dethroning Petrodollar, but rather pushing out second tier developed market FX, such as GBP. One direction in which Petrodollar could be challenged given the geopolitical confrontation is the higher focus of BRICS trade on other emerging market economies.” 

Oil spill from ship sinking off Philippines

The Philippines is in a race against time to contain an oil spill after a tanker carrying close to 1.5 million liters of industrial fuel capsized and sank off the country's coast, reports Saudi Gazette.

There are fears the "enormous" spill - which is already stretching out over several kilometers - could reach the shore of the capital, Manila, Coast Guard spokesman Rear Admiral Armando Balilo told reporters.

The ship was one of two that sank in the region on Thursday, with the second going down just off Taiwan's southwestern coast.

Both Taiwan and the Philippines are seeing large amounts of rain as Typhoon Gaemi moves through the area, causing widespread flooding.

The typhoon made landfall in mainland China on Thursday evening local time, with authorities declaring the highest tier disaster warning.

It first struck Taiwan on Wednesday evening, killing three as it made its way across the island.

Four counties and cities in Taiwan saw more than a thousand millimeters of rainfall during a 14-hour period ending Thursday afternoon.

The Philippines avoided a direct hit by Gaemi, but the storm intensified seasonal monsoon rains, triggering widespread flooding across large swathes of Metro Manila and its suburbs.

Despite the heavy rains, the MT Terra Nova, which sails under the Philippines' flag, had not broken any regulations around traveling in heavy weather, according to Rear Admiral Balilo.

The tanker was heading for the central Philippine city of Iloilo when it sank, with 17 crew members on board.

One died, but 16 were successfully rescued, officials said. Authorities are investigating whether bad weather was a factor.

The Coast Guard is now "racing against time" to contain the spill, which could - if all of the oil leaks - become the biggest in the country's history.

High winds and rough seas were hampering their attempts, however.

Even if they managed to avoid a catastrophe of that magnitude, Rear Admiral Balilo said it would "definitely affect the marine environment".

Pando Hicap, chairman of local fishing group Pamalakaya, said the spill was "alarming" because fishermen's livelihoods were "dependent on the waters".

"They don't have any alternative," he told news agency AFP.

Meanwhile, to the north in Taiwan, all nine sailors were initially reported missing after their Tanzania-flagged cargo ship Fu Shun went down.

The Myanmar nationals were forced to abandon the sinking ship, Hsiao Huan-chang, head of the fire agency, told AFP.

"They fell into the sea and were floating there," he said.

The first attempts to reach the crew, who were wearing lifejackets, were hampered by the low visibility and high winds, but by the end of Thursday three had been reported rescued.

The typhoon was originally expected to hit further north, but the mountains of northern Taiwan steered it slightly south towards the city of Hualien.

The typhoon is expected to weaken as it tracks over the mountainous terrain of Taiwan before re-emerging in the Taiwan Strait towards China.

A second landfall is expected in the Fujian province in southeastern China later on Thursday. Several rail operators in China have also suspended operations.