Banning Ukraine grains

Poland, Slovakia and Hungary announced their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports on Friday after the European Commission decided not to extend its ban on imports into Ukraine's five EU neighbors.

Ukraine was one of the world's top grain exporters before Russia's 2022 invasion reduced its ability to ship agricultural produce to global markets. Ukrainian farmers have relied on grain exports through neighboring countries since the conflict began as it has been unable to use the favored routes through Black Sea ports.

The flood of grains and oilseeds into neighboring countries reduced prices there, impacting the income of local farmers and resulting in governments banning agricultural imports from Ukraine.

The European Union in May stepped in to prevent individual countries imposing unilateral bans and imposed its own ban on imports into neighboring countries. Under the EU ban, Ukraine was allowed to export through those countries on condition the produce was sold elsewhere.

The EU allowed that ban to expire on Friday after Ukraine pledged to take measures to tighten control of exports to neighboring countries. The issue is a particularly sensitive one now as farmers harvest their crops and prepare to sell.

EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Friday countries should refrain from unilateral measures against imports of Ukrainian grain, but Poland, Slovakia and Hungary immediately responded by reimposing their own restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports.

They will continue to allow the transit of Ukrainian produce.

"As long as Ukraine is able to certify that the grain is going to get to the country of destination, through the trucks and trains, the domestic use ban is not really going to put a dent in Ukraine's ability to get exports out," said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist for Marex. He noted that disruptions to Black Sea exports are a bigger concern.

It is unclear how much Ukraine has pledged to restrict exports or how the new bans would impact the flow of produce from Ukraine.

The issue has underscored division the EU over the impact of the war in Ukraine on the economies of member countries which themselves have powerful agriculture and farming lobbies.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy welcomed the EU's decision not to further extend the ban on Kyiv's grain exports, but said his government would react in civilised fashion if EU member states broke EU rules.

The three countries argue their actions are in the interests of their economies.

"The ban covers four cereals, but also at my request, at the request of farmers, the ban has been extended to include meals from these cereals: corn, wheat, rapeseed, so that these products also do not affect the Polish market," Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said in a statement posted on Facebook.

"We will extend this ban despite their disagreement, despite the European Commission's disagreement," added Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki. "We will do it because it is in the interest of the Polish farmer."

Hungary imposed a national import ban on 24 Ukrainian agricultural products, including grains, vegetables, several meat products and honey, according to a government decree published on Friday.

Slovakia's agriculture minister followed suit announcing its own grain ban. All three bans only apply to domestic imports and do not affect transit to onward markets.

The EU created alternative land routes, so-called Solidarity Lanes, for Ukraine to use to export its grains and oilseeds after Russia backed out of a UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal in July that allowed safe passage for the cargo ships.

The EU Commission said existing measures would expire as originally planned on Friday after Ukraine agreed to introduce measures such as an export licensing system within 30 days

The EU said there was no reason to prolong the ban because the distortions in supply that led to the ban in May had disappeared from the market.

The EU said it would not impose restrictions as long as Ukraine exercises effective export controls.

Farmers in the five countries neighboring Ukraine have repeatedly complained about a product glut hitting their domestic prices and pushing them towards bankruptcy.

The countries, except Bulgaria, had been pushing for an extension of the EU ban. Bulgaria on Thursday voted to scrap the curbs.

Romania's government, which unlike its peers did not issue a unilateral ban before May, said on Friday it "regretted that a European solution to extend the ban could not be found."

Romania said it would wait for Ukraine to present its plan to prevent a surge of exports before deciding how to protect Romanian farmers.

Romania sees over 60% of the alternate flows pass through its territory mainly via the Danube River and its farmers have threatened protests if the ban is not extended.

For the last year, Ukraine had moved 60% of its exports through the Solidarity Lanes and 40% via the Black Sea through a UN brokered deal that fell apart in July.

In August, about 4 million tons of Ukraine grains passed through the Solidarity Lanes of which close to 2.7 million tons were through the Danube.

The Commission wants to increase exports through Romania further but the plan has been complicated by Russian drone attacks on Ukraine's grain infrastructure along the Danube and near the Romanian border.

 

 

War is good for business, mantra of military industrial complexes

Military industrial complex players big and small gathered in London this month, hawking everything from long-range missiles to gold plated pistols to arms fair attendees—including representatives of horrific human rights violators—as weapon-makers and other merchants of the machinery of death reap record profits.

"War is good for business," one defense executive attending the biennial Defense and Security Equipment International (DSEI) conference at ExCel London flat-out told Reuters. "We are extremely busy," Michael Elmore, head of sales at the UK-based armored steelmaker MTL Advanced, told the media agency.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the West's scramble to arm Ukrainian homeland defenders have been a bonanza for arms-makers.

"Ukraine is a very interesting combination of First and Second World War technologies and very modern technology," Kuldar Vaarsi, CEO of the Estonian unmanned ground vehicle firm MILREM, told Reuters.

Saber-rattling and fearmongering by government, media, and business figures amid rising tensions between the US and its allies on one side, and a fast-rising China on the other, have also spurred military spending, including Japan's US$320 billion buildup announced last December.

"We think this is a longer-term essentially 'sea change' in national defense strategy for the U.S. and for our Western allies," Jim Taiclet, CEO of US arms giant Lockheed Martin, told investors during a call earlier this summer announcing higher-than-expected sales and profit outlooks.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States, Russia, France, China, and Germany were the world's top arms exporters from 2018-22, with the five nations accounting for 76% of all weapons exports during that period. The U.S. accounted for nearly 40% of such exports during those five years, while increasing its dominance in the arms trade. The US also remains by far the world's biggest military spender.

In addition to major corporations, middlemen like Marc Morales have also been profiting handsomely from wars in countries including Ukraine. Morales happened to have a warehouse full of ammunition in Bulgaria that the Pentagon originally intended for Afghanistan when Russia invaded its neighbor, and he has been richly rewarded as the US spends tens of billions of dollars arming Ukrainian forces. He named his new US$10 million yacht Trigger Happy.

Outside the sprawling ExCel convention center in London's Docklands, anti-war protesters rallied against the global arms trade and the death and destruction it fuels. The Guardian reported that at least a dozen demonstrators were arrested during the course of the conference, including nine on Thursday for blocking a road outside the venue.

Sam Perlo-Freeman, a researcher at the Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), told The Guardian that a lot of countries that are being talked about as new arms export markets are ones we would be concerned about.

"Egypt is a repressive regime and Vietnam an absolute dictatorship," Perlo-Freeman added. "Indonesia is involved in brutality in West Papua."

Emily Apple, also of CAAT, told People's World that the companies exhibiting read as who is who of the world's worst arms dealers.

"Israel is an apartheid state, and it is disgusting that the UK is not only selling weapons to Israel but encouraging Israeli arms companies to sell their weapons in London," she continued.

"Representatives from regimes such as Saudi Arabia, who have used UK made weapons to commit war crimes in Yemen, will be wined and dined and encouraged to buy yet more arms."

"Deals done at DSEI will cause misery across the world, causing global instability, and devastate people's lives," Apple added.

Inside ExCel, it was business as usual. Pressed by Declassified UK chief reporter Phil Miller on why Britain's right-wing government supports selling arms to the Saudi dictatorship that sentences someone to death for tweeting, Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey deflected.

Private sector leaders, however, have been more forthcoming. As Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes opined during a 2021 investor call touting the company's solid growth, "Peace is not going to break out in the Middle East anytime soon."

 

Prospects of Saudi Arabia joining Abraham Accords getting bleaker

At present international attention is heavily focused on the prospects of a megadeal among Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

The prime objectives of the deal include access to US security commitments, advanced weaponry, and civilian nuclear facilities for the Saudis, full diplomatic relations with the most important Muslim country for Israel.

For the United States, the agreement would strengthen its regional security framework and provide new evidence of US political and diplomatic heft — a fitting riposte to those who perceive Chinese or Russian regional ascendency.

A question arises, will Saudi-Israeli normalization bring about a fundamental realignment of regional relationships?

As the original Abraham Accords signatories — Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain — observe the third anniversary of their September 2020 agreement, there is a sufficient basis to evaluate whether the Abraham Accords are real, hype, or something in between.

On the occasion of the Accords’ anniversary, the results are mixed. The rise of a far-right extremist government in Jerusalem, deepening violence between Israelis and Palestinians, and deteriorating conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza, and Jerusalem have set back relations, frozen the Negev Forum, as well as triggered a sharp decline in Arab popular opinion toward normalization.

The hardening of Arab popular opposition to normalization is likely to complicate the process going forward.

At present, the Biden administration’s attention is on adding more members to the Accords to lay a foundation for enhanced cooperation among the parties in the security arena and offer at least the potential to expand bilateral trade and investment opportunities.

It is necessary to keep in mind that the agreements do not operate in a vacuum and cannot be sustained in the absence of advancing on other issues of governmental and popular concern.

One of the opinions is that the Abraham Accords were about preventing annexation. However, at present Israeli settlement expansion and annexation is once again being widely bruited.

There are many reasons to be skeptical about the prospects for a successful conclusion to the current Saudi-Israel-US negotiations. The key issue for Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Arab-Muslim world is, will Israel preserve the two-state option?

Saudis are sufficiently determined to demand such an agreement, is the current Israeli government capable of making a deal with the Saudis and abide by it? That is far from certain.

China blacklists US defence companies

Beijing has announced sanctions on two US companies over arms sales to Taiwan, warning of forceful retaliation against any further US military deals with the island.

Without saying what action Beijing would take, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Friday that the sanctions applied to Northrop Grumman and a unit of Lockheed Martin.

Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the St Louis, Missouri, branch of Lockheed Martin was the main contractor in a US arms sale to Taipei on August 24 while Northrop Grumman, based in Falls Church, Virginia, had been involved in supplying weapons to Taiwan multiple times.

Mao said Washington was going further down the wrong and dangerous path of arming Taiwan despite Beijing’s firm opposition.

“We urge the US side … to stop selling weapons to Taiwan, to stop the US-Taiwan military collusion and to stop arming Taiwan, otherwise it will be met with resolute and forceful countermeasures of China,” she said.

The State Department announced three weeks ago that the US had approved a half billion dollar sale of advanced sensor systems built by Lockheed Martin for F-16 fighter jets to Taipei.

Lockheed Martin – along with Raytheon Missiles and Defence – was already on a Chinese Commerce Ministry blacklist over Taiwan arms sales.

Beijing later said Chinese companies were banned from doing business with the US firms and senior executives of Lockheed or RMD were not allowed to travel to or work in China.

The self-governed island has become one of the greatest sources of tension between the two powers in recent years.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a breakaway province to be brought under mainland control by force if necessary and opposes any official interactions between countries it has established diplomatic relations with and the island.

Most countries, including the US, do not recognize the island as an independent state, although Washington is opposed to any attempt to take it forcibly.

In addition to the arms sale, the Biden administration notified the US Congress last month that it had approved the first-ever US military aid – amounting to US$80 million – to Taiwan under a program generally reserved for assistance to sovereign, independent states.

The US government is also reportedly planning to redirect millions of dollars of military financing for Egypt to Taiwan.

On Friday, Mao said US arms sales to Taiwan seriously violate the one-China principle and severely harm China’s sovereignty and security interests”.

“The Chinese government’s determination to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity is unwavering,” she said.

Last weekend US President Joe Biden said the economic slowdown in mainland China could make it less likely to consider an invasion of Taiwan.

“I don’t think it’s going to cause China to invade Taiwan. And matter of fact, the opposite – it probably doesn’t have the – the same capacity that it had before,” he said on Sunday during a visit to Vietnam.

Beijing responded saying that resolving the Taiwan question is a matter for the Chinese ourselves.

Milley rejects Trump claim on Iran attack

Mark Milley denies former President Trump's allegations that he recommended attacking Iran. Milley, in an interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria, flat-out rejected Trump's claim on Iran.

"I can assure you that not one time have I ever recommended to attack Iran," Milley said. The nation's highest-ranking military officer was referring to comments Trump made in a 2021 audio tape at his Bedminster Club.

In the audio, Trump said he had a classified document proving his side of the story — that Milley told him to attack Iran during his administration.

He was apparently trying to refute a New Yorker article detailing how Milley moved to prevent Trump from attacking Iran in the final days of his administration.

That audio is a major part of a federal special counsel investigation, which charged the former president earlier this year with more than 30 counts related to illegally retaining classified documents.

The Milley-Trump feud has a long history.

Trump tapped the general to be the Joint Chiefs chairman in 2018. But they diverged on multiple issues, including the 2020 racial justice protests when Trump wanted to use the military to quell the rioting.

Trump’s former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, has backed his former boss in the Iran case, claiming Milley recommended an attack on Iran more than once.

In the CNN interview, Milley said he can speak with certainty that this chairman never recommended a wholesale attack on Iran.

"I can assure you I know what I’ve done and it’s not to recommend an attack on Iran," he said.

 

 

China refinery output rises to record level

China's oil refinery throughput in August rose to a record, as processors in the world's second-largest fossil oil consumer kept run rates high to meet summer travel demand and capitalize on strengthening export margins.

Total refinery throughput was a record 64.69 million metric tons in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed, up 19.6% from a year ago.

That is the equivalent of 15.23 million barrels per day (bpd), also a record on a daily basis and up from the 12.64 million bpd processed a year earlier when extensive COVID pandemic restrictions and weak domestic fuel demand led refiners to cut runs.

August throughput was also up from July's 14.87 million bpd.

Year-to-date throughput gained 11.9% from a year earlier to 491.4 million tons, or 14.76 million bpd.

Domestic demand for gasoline and kerosene over the August vacation season was a key driver of domestic fuel consumption, with travel levels likely to be have been further boosted by revenge travel after the pandemic, analysts said ahead of the data.

Domestic airline capacity by available seats was around 77.5 million in August, up around 17% from pre-pandemic levels, according to data from aviation analytics firm OAG.

G20 decisions, what next for Pakistan?

The G20 conference has come to an end in Delhi, where a lot happened which can become a permanent topic separately.

For example, the Indian media mentioned a statement by the Prime Minister of Italy regarding BRI, the Prime Minister of Canada spoke about Khalistan while standing in the Indian capital and when the rights of Sikh in Canada holding a referendum on Khalistan.

Muhammad Mehdi, Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Media Research has discussed the concept of the Global South that President Biden arrived in Delhi with this concept, and the leadership of the Global South will be handed over to India according to Washington’s vision. 

According to Mehdi, for Pakistan any situation that affects the region is extremely important because the country would be affected whether it likes it or not. The Global South's vision is to prepare India to compete with China's BRI project.

India does not have enough economic size to be able to do this on its own, so its economic needs will be fulfilled by the United States as much as it needs compared to China.

The next and very important question is, whether the US economy under the debt of US$7.6 trillion has enough power to meet these needs or not? In order to promote the concept of the Global South, an MoU was signed during the G20 summit in India.

This economic corridor project will connect ports and rail links to the Middle East, Israel and Europe. The project is being named as India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEEC).

It includes United States, India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the European Union. The goal of this project is to connect India's ports with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia by developing a large-scale rail network and then get access to Israel and Europe from there. And apart from the Suez Canal, another route should be developed while China's BRI project should also be made a response to it.

Discussions on this project started in 2021 at a Business Forum between the United States, India, UAE and Israel, and later Saudi Arabia also joined these discussions.

When the Abraham Accords was being signed between certain Arab countries and Israel under the patronage of the United States, Mehdi had said that it should not be seen only in the context of the Arab countries and Israel, but it will have far-reaching consequences on the region where Pakistan is located and that has started happening.

Saudi Arabia does not recognize Israel, but it has recognized Israel's position in this agreement. Now, what does the US want to achieve by including the Arab countries in it? It is clear that through the BRI project, China's footprints are clearly visible on the Arab land.  

This is not only limited to economic matters, but by standing with Saudi Arabia and Iran, China has given a clear message that now its political position has also become strong in this region and the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also joined BRICS, which also includes India, but its souls are China and Russia.

According to Mehdi, United States cannot afford such a situation. When the Ottoman Empire disintegrated as a result of the First World War, the British shadow remained over the Arab region from that time until the end of the Second World War, and then later the United States replaced the United Kingdom and enjoyed its position solely.

But China's recent successes have put many question marks on the presence of the US supremacy in this region and its future, and the supwer is taking steps to maintain its supremacy by presenting the concept of the Global South. And in order to achieve this goal, India is being encouraged.

Narendra Modi will face polls and in order to win he needs to put his nation behind a truck light similar to what he has achieved by holding this conference and promoting this economic corridor.

This is called a political slogan because there is a very strong belief that the current US economy, which will have a debt of US7.6 trillion by the end of year 2024, is not strong enough to support this project. 

Regarding the same thing that happened to the New Silk route project announced by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during the Obama era, an economic route would be made from Afghanistan, but then it could never be implemented.

The real goal of the current plan seems to be to confuse the Arab world with the fact that the United States is coming down a new path and to make them think about how far they should go with China and how much should be carried forward.

If the US succeeds in getting the Arab countries into this mess, it will be a success. Because these Arab countries are concerned about their internal and international security, and they still depend on the largest suppliers of arms and military might.

Muhammad Mehdi is the Chairman of the Institute of International Relations and Media Research