Many experts from United States find the whole swath of
territory in Eastern Europe, near Russia, very far away and hard to
conceptualize. This part of the world involves a number of countries, small and
large that is generally neither the most frequently discussed in the US news
nor frequented by the US tourists.
To make sense of much of this remote region, it can be
helpful to take a perspective that centers on the Black Sea and views
that body of water as the key point of reference for much of the region. Doing
so not only helps clarify what Russia is up to in its neighborhood, but also
shines a spotlight on Chinese activity.
The Black Sea region is best viewed as having three big
anchors—Ukraine to the north, Turkey to the south, Russia to the
northeast. Then there are three countries on either side of the region—Romania,
Bulgaria and Moldova on the left or west, Georgia and Armenia and Azerbaijan to
the east.
Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are NATO allies; the
US and NATO’s other twenty-six members (making for a grand total of thirty) are
sworn to their defense through a mutual-defense treaty. And even though Ukraine
is not a NATO ally, the United States did promise (along with Russia) back in
1994 to help protect its security—which is why the Russian aggression against
Ukraine since 2014 has been so concerning.
None of this is to say that the US needs to prepare for war
against China, or Russia for that matter, in the Black Sea region. The
Black Sea is far from the Chinese coasts; the main military concerns are
with China in the western Pacific region.
Moreover, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
Gen. Mark Milley, told a group of people at the Brookings Institution on 2nd
December 2020, the US is in a period of great-power competition but it
is not in a period of conflict, and the goal should be to keep
things that way while competing effectively against Russian and
Chinese influence.
Indeed, as with many parts of the world, China does not pose
a direct military threat, rather it challenges the US interests in
the realms of economics, technology, and espionage. To be specific:
- China is offering loans, through its Belt and Road
Initiative, to many countries along a vast periphery and perimeter. This
includes the Black Sea. But buyer must be cognizant that China’s money comes
with strings. The US needs to help regional countries understand this and so
that they can accept any loans with their eyes wide open.
- China’s software and hardware are optimized for intrusive
monitoring of the population, Black Sea inhabitants will be monitored if and
when they accept Chinese technology, even from private firms, in realms like
5G. China’s civil-commercial-military-intelligence “fusion law” formalizes
this; Beijing isn’t even pretending to do otherwise.
- China is actively trying to buy into sectors that
have huge security implications. A prime example is the manufacturer Motorsich
in Ukraine, which builds high-quality engines for helicopters and aircraft. A
struggling Ukrainian economy may make such assets relatively easy pickings for
a purportedly friendly but also devious foreign investor
- In general, Chinese infrastructure comes with long-term
controlling interests
- Default on Chinese loans results in Chinese ownership of
assets—and the default is a distinct possibility when big projects are
foisted upon unsuspecting countries with weak economies and a lack of
transparency in their investment decisions.
The US can do a lot to help in ways that are already showing
promise in other regions around the world. Malaysia and Pakistan, for example,
have figured out that they can say no to massive Chinese projects that
would bring them little in the way of jobs (since China brings along most of
its own workers for Belt and Road projects) and much in the way of debt. A
central database that tracks such Chinese efforts, and helps countries do the
calculus of pros and cons for each proposed investment before signing any
contracts, can go a long way towards defeating such practices.
The US needs to be a part of the leadership in this region.
The EU and NATO are important, to complement our diplomacy with both those
organizations, the incoming Biden administration should recognize the Black Sea
as a region of importance, requiring a focus on diplomacy and economic
engagement.
The good news is that war does not have to be the future for
the Black Sea. Military support is important, but it is just one of our tools
for engagement in this vital region. To avoid bad news, the US must engage
effectively, be patient, and sustain its efforts, when it chooses to do. It is
time to choose.
