Israeli attempt to normalize Libya ties backfires

Libyan Prime Minister has firmly rejected the prospect of normalizing relations with Israel, days after the news broke out of an apparent secret meeting between the Libyan foreign minister and her Israeli counterpart.

On August 27, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen publicly said he and Libya’s now sacked foreign minister had held a private meeting in the Italian capital Rome the previous week, the first-ever alleged encounter between a top Libyan diplomat and an Israeli regime official in history.

The next day, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah fired Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush, (who claimed it was not an official meeting but a swift coincidental interaction) and launched an investigation into the reported meeting. 

Mangoush’s whereabouts is now unknown following the uproar in Libya after news emerged of the exchange late last week.

Dbeibah also touched on the ongoing probe about the incident, saying, “Regardless of good or bad intentions, together we (the Libyan people) will learn the details of what happened in Rome through the ongoing investigation.”

Under a 1957 law in Libya, it is illegal to normalize ties with the occupation regime of Israel. Libya has long been hostile toward the Israeli regime and a staunch supporter of the Palestinians.

During a televised ministerial meeting of the Libyan Government of National Unity, Prime Minister Dbeibah said his government completely rejects any form of normalization with Israel.

"Before I assumed this mission, (I affirm) our categorical and complete rejection of any form of normalization, and our complete bias towards the Palestinian people and their just cause,” Dbeibah told his ministers.

The Premier has also accepted responsibility for the foreign minister’s illegal interaction, in spite of being unaware of the reported secret gathering, saying, “Despite everything that happened to our people, they still cling to their principles and identity. In fact, from this place, I bear full responsibility for this government, regardless of who made mistakes in it and who was responsible.”

“Long live Libya, long live its people, long live Palestine, and long live the Palestinian cause in our hearts,” he added.

On Tuesday, Libya’s parliament also condemned the meeting, while voicing opposition to any attempt toward any level of normalization with Israel, with the parliament speaker denouncing any contacts with the regime and emphasizing Libya’s support for the Palestinians. 

Aguila Saleh Issa added that no one is allowed to undermine the Palestine struggle for freedom, and everyone should work on establishing a Palestinian state with occupied al-Quds (Jerusalem) as its capital.

In a sign of how just sensitive the news was for the Libyan public, the reported meeting ignited angry street protests in several Libyan cities, including mass rallies in the capital Tripoli, with demonstrations strongly condemning Israel and protesters chanting slogans in support of the Palestinians. 

This, in turn, prompted the suspended foreign minister Mangoush to reportedly flee to Turkey for fear of her safety. Her exact whereabouts remain unknown.

Israeli news reports suggest that the regime’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was furious with his foreign minister for making the news public before informing him.

Reports also suggest the United States is fuming about the Israeli announcement of the reported meeting amid the wave of angry reactions from Libya.

Both Israel and the US are reportedly said to have hoped the private meeting could have materialized into some type of PR boost for Israel and President Biden, ahead of the 2024 US presidential election with a view to some kind of normalization agenda between Israel and Libya.

The response from the Libyan people and the government officials since the news broke out suggests that no such measure will materialize in the foreseeable future.

Israel is finding itself isolated in West Asia after the so-called Abraham Accords which saw the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalizing ties with Israel when Donald Trump was at the White House.

While Sudan formally joined the so-called Abraham Accords, relations between Sudan and the occupation regime have been frozen because of domestic opposition and political instability.
Three years later, Israel had widely hoped to expand on the so-called Abraham Accords by normalizing ties with many more states in West Asia and Africa, something that has yet to transpire.

Palestinians have said the Abraham Accords have emboldened Israel in its brutal crackdown in the occupied territories, describing the deal as a stab in the back for the Palestinian cause.

According to the United Nations, Israeli forces have killed more than 200 Palestinians so far this year, many of them women and children, the highest annual death toll since the UN began keeping records in 2005.

But 2023 has yet to end and Israeli aggression against the Palestinians continues to expand, particularly the almost daily pre-dawn heavy military invasions in the occupied West Bank cities, towns and villages that have been condemned by human rights groups as “merciless”.

On Friday, the regime's military raided several cities in the occupied West Bank, killing an innocent teacher in the village of Aqaba, while injuring and arresting many others, including family members of residents that Israel claims are wanted. 

Israel is being governed by one of the most fascist regimes in the entity’s short history.  And while former Israeli rulers committed similar war crimes against the Palestinians, observers say the new ministers in Netanyahu’s cabinet are not even trying to hide their brutal and illegal practices, unlike previous ones who tried to cover them up. Netanyahu’s cabinet openly boasts about killing Palestinian civilians.

This has added extra pressure on any regional state's official pondering the idea of some kind of diplomatic normalization and being seen warming up to the new fanatical criminal gang in charge of the occupied Palestinian territories.

 

US backs Chevron in dispute with Cyprus

According to Reuters, Washington has weighed into a dispute between Cyprus and international companies led by Chevron over how to develop a giant offshore gas field, backing the US Company’s plan to link it to neighbouring Egypt.

The Chevron-led consortium proposed connecting the Aphrodite gas field via a subsea pipeline and existing infrastructure to Egypt, where the gas can be sold in the domestic market or liquefied and shipped to Europe, which has largely been cut off from Russian supplies.

Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou confirmed that the government had rejected the latest plan, which omitted a previous proposal to build a floating gas processing plant at the field which lies 160 kilometers (100 miles) southeast of Cyprus.

"The modification has been rejected. The expectation of the Republic of Cyprus is that the consortium honours what was mutually agreed by the parties in 2019," Papanastasiou told Reuters.

The partners have engaged in a new round of talks with the Cypriot government, Israel's NewMed, which is a partner in the Aphrodite field, said earlier this week.

The United States is backing Chevron's plans, which it believes will help to get gas to the market faster and with a lower carbon footprint as it does not involve building large infrastructure.

"Connecting Aphrodite to Egypt will help them with peak domestic consumption in the summer, add stability and reduce tensions in the region, and allow exports for Europe," the US source said.

The Biden administration is making the distinction between expensive and unnecessary infrastructure projects and less work-intensive interconnections that are necessary as economies transition to cleaner forms of energy, the source said.

Aphrodite, discovered more than a decade ago, holds an estimated 124 billion cubic meters of gas. Chevron is a partner in the field with NewMed and Shell.

Its development would give a vital boost to the Eastern Mediterranean gas basin which has attracted huge investment in recent years, particularly in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as Europe sought to replace Russian fossil fuel.

According to two industry sources, Nicosia objected to Chevron's plans to drill three production wells rather than five and avoid the construction of a floating production unit above the field.

A Chevron spokesperson said the consortium was working to progress the Aphrodite project.

"We have submitted a modified development plan to the Cypriot Government, which we hope will lead to the development of the Aphrodite field and delivery of gas to Egyptian and global markets via existing LNG (liquefied natural gas) plants on the north coast of Egypt."

"We believe it is important that Aphrodite is expeditiously developed for the benefit of Cyprus, the Eastern Mediterranean region and European and other international markets," Chevron said.  

 

 

 

 

Iranian export to ECO members on the rise

Iran exported over US$3.6 billion worth of commodities to the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) in the first four months of the current Iranian calendar year. This reflected a 4.52%YoY increase, said an official with the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA).

According to Omid Golzari, the head of the IRICA Office of International Affairs and Public Relations, Iran exported 8.161 tons of goods to the ECO members during the said period, Tasnim News Agency reported.

The volume of exports also increased by 31.24% as compared to the same period last year.

As previously announced by the IRICA head, Iran’s trade with the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization reached US$20.5 billion in the previous Iranian calendar year.

According to Mohammad Rezvani-Far, Iran exported US$13 billion worth of commodities to the said nations last year, while the imports were recorded at US$7.5 billion.

Referring to the trade potentials of ECO member countries in various fields, such as rail and land transport, common borders, as well as territorial and population size, Rezvani-Far said the volume of commercial exchanges with ECO members should be more than this figure.

“IRICA is fully prepared to take the necessary measures for increasing the volume of trade and transit exchanges with ECO members in order to achieve the organization’s goals set according to the ECO agreement,” he said.

The official underlined the development of transit ties with ECO members as a way of boosting trade exchanges with the mentioned countries.

“Iran has many customs agreements and memorandums with ECO member countries, and in order for these agreements to be operational in line with the provisions of the ECO agreement, it is suggested that the ECO secretariat announces the necessary measures needed to be taken with the cooperation of the members,” he noted.

Iran and ECO members traded more than 23.723 million tons of goods worth US$11.71 billion during the previous Iranian calendar year, of which the share of exports was 18.419 million tons of goods worth US$6.890 billion and the share of imports from these countries was 5.312 million tons worth US$4.819 billion.

Petroleum products, dairy products, foodstuff, fresh and dried fruits, juices and citrus fruits, carpets, saffron, fish, caviar, ornamental aquatic products, various stones, construction equipment, clothing, industrial equipment, bags and shoes, medicine, and health supplies, as well as plastic products, were Iran’s main exported items to ECO members last year, while basic goods, industrial machinery, raw materials for production, and medical supplies and medicine, were the top imported goods from ECO member states.

The Economic Cooperation Organization or ECO is an Asian political and economic intergovernmental organization that was founded in 1985 in Tehran by the leaders of Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey.

Singapore: Tharman the Next President

The former Singapore ruling party stalwart Tharman Shanmugaratnam has won 70.4% of the vote in a crushing victory in the republic’s three-way presidential contest, a result that foiled expectations that he would be hurt by recent political scandals involving his ex-colleagues.

The Elections Department officially declared in favour of the 66-year-old in the early hours of Saturday. Earlier, the other two candidates, Ng Kok Song and Tan Kin Lian, effectively conceded the race.

Ng won 15.72% of valid votes while Tan received 13.88% of the votes. More than 2.48 million votes were cast in Singapore, with 50,152 rejected votes.

Tharman, a 22-year veteran of the long-ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), had faced questions during the campaign over whether the party’s recent political scandals – as well as overall public disquiet over rising inflation – would hurt his chances.

Tharman said he was humbled by the result. “It’s a vote of optimism for a future in which we can progress together and support each other as Singaporeans,” he said.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the leader of the PAP government, said in a statement that he had called Tharman and assured him of the administration’s full cooperation.

“I have every confidence that he will carry out his duties as President with distinction,” Lee said. “Tharman has also declared his intention to work closely with the government,” he added.

The three candidates met stringent criteria to run for the race to succeed the incumbent, President Halimah Yacob, for a six-year term.

The republic’s presidency is a largely ceremonial role with custodial powers over the use of the country’s vast fiscal reserves and appointment of key public officials such as the chief justice, military chief, police commissioner and the attorney general.

Ng, 75, is a former chief investment officer at the state investor GIC, and was seen as the next most palatable to the republic’s middle-ground voters.

Tan, also 75, is a former chief executive of the state-linked insurer NTUC. He gained endorsements from a handful of opposition politicians, and was described as the preferred choice of voters hoping to use the contest to show their disaffection with the PAP.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index declines almost 5%WoW

During the week ended on September 01, 2023, the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange declined by 4.95%, losing 2,358 points to close 45,313 level.

NEPRA’s announcement to increase the average national power tariff by PKR4.96/unit for FY24 was met with strong disapproval and countrywide protests.

The business communities and other political parties showed dismay as well and criticized DISCOs over the levied capacity charges on consumers. Moreover, the Finance Division allowed for a massive hike in petrol and diesel prices.

After much anticipation of upheaved inflation figures, August’s CPI was announced as 27.4%, giving a source of comfort during a crunch period.

Given elevated demand for the greenback, Pak rupee witnessed an erosion of 1.4%WoW, reaching PKR305.47 against US$ on Friday. Furthermore, towards the week’s end, the gap between the interbank and open market exchange rates remained 7.4%.

According to the IMF agreement, this gap should not be ±1.25% for 5 consecutive days. Moreover, the forex reserves held by the central bank declined by US$81 million to US$7.85 billion owing to debt repayments and July’s current account deficit can put additional strain on reserves. Cumulatively, these reasons have had a negative impact on the market.

To curb the gas sector’s revolving circular debt, Petroleum Ministry is gearing for a 60% increase in gas prices.

On the bright side, FBR has provisionally collected PKR1.21 trillion during first two months of FY24, against a target of PKR1.18 trillion, reflecting an increase of PKR24 billion.

Market participation witnessed a decline, with traded volume averaging at 187 million shares, as compared to the previous week’s average of 206 million shares.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) Foreign investors’ buying in August reported at US$12.87 million, 2) PIA demanded PKR23 billion bailout from government, 3) CMEC announced to halt production at Thar coal mines given non-clearance of US$50 million, 4) Total tax collected from power sector including electricity bills was reported at more than PkR160bn for FY23, 5) SBP adopted certain AAOIFI’s Shariah standards, 6) Income tax department levied super tax on non-resident companies in negation of double taxation treaties, 7) DISCOs withdrew up to 41% less power from national grid in 4QFY23, and 8) slightly over 8 million mobile phones were manufactured by local plants during Jan-July 2023 period.

Textile weaving was the top performer, while close end mutual fund/ power generation & distribution/ automobile parts & accessories were amongst the worst performers. Major selling was recorded by Banks/DFI with a net sell of US$6.26 million. Insurance companies absorbed the selling with a net buy of US$7.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: SCBPL, INDU, HMB, AICL, and NRL, while top laggards were: HGFA, DGKC, NML, APL, and NCL.

Going forward, market is in commensuration with outcomes of 1) upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 14th September, 2) ensuing review with IMF in October, and 3) developments encircling energy reforms.

In the event of an interest rate hike, cyclical sectors may face turbulence, although market has already adjusted for this impact.

Analysts reiterate following a cautious approach while picking stocks and continue to advocate US dollar-denominated revenue stream scrips (Technology and E&P sector) to hedge against currency risk or high dividend yielding scrips.

 

 

Israel Experiencing Worst Terrorism

In recent weeks, political and security officials have been putting out impressive statistics about hundreds or thousands of thwarted terror attacks, arrests, seized illegal weapons, and seized terror funds.

These statistics may look very impressive, and no matter what, they show that the security establishment is working overtime and doing its utmost to protect Israel. The problem is, these statistics do not occur in a vacuum; there are others.

Four terror attacks took place between Wednesday and Thursday, two of them in central areas that cannot be categorized into being limited to the West Bank.

In eight months of this year, it has become the bloodiest one since the Second Intifada nearly 20 years ago.

A question arises, why has terror gotten so out of control? Some of the apparent reasons may be:

It may be true that the terrorists want to kill Jews, but the spike in terror and the increase in lone wolf attacks and attacks by some Palestinians with worker’s permits – people who are not usually involved in terror – shows that there are bigger tensions than normal.

Another question is why there has been no diplomatic progress with the Palestinians for so long? Is it because many enemies of Israel view it as weaker and more distracted than usual by internal tensions over the judicial overhaul? Because the Palestinian Authority stopped trying to actively rein in terror?

Is it because the government has steadfastly refused to undertake a robust Operation Defensive Shield-style operation as in 2002? True, on July 3-4, the IDF undertook a massive operation in Jenin which improved things there some, but has not followed that with similar operations in other problem areas. Or because Iran is leaning in hard to incite a wider amount of the Palestinian population to terror?

Some mix of these longer-term reasons is likely true. There are also some near-term reasons.

Hezbollah has gotten away with keeping an outpost in Israeli territory in the disputed Mount Dov area now for several months. It has also numerous times violated Israel’s border in low-grade ways without paying much of a price.

There are reports that Hamas may consider a similar strategy in the South. In addition to being perpetually committed to Israel’s destruction, the terror group may be especially upset lately by a cut in its funds from Qatar.

In 2014, a mix of the Shin Bet and portions of IDF intelligence warned that allowing Hamas to languish too much economically could lead to an unexpected and unnecessary war – which it did.

Since then the defense establishment has been louder about making sure Hamas never drops below a certain economic level.

Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s direction, is said to be one of the key authors of the arrangement in which Qatar brings cash to Hamas to keep it afloat, without letting it save much for new weapons.

None of the defense establishment would publicly address the current situation with Qatar funding.

It is feared that Hamas may start building its own tents near the Israeli border fence and re-engage its 2018 strategy of marching on the fence with a mix of unarmed and armed Palestinians.

It does not threaten Israel in an existential way, and after the IDF slammed Islamic Jihad to the mat in May, Hamas is likely not looking for a big war, but will instead create more instability for Israel.

Increased terror from the West Bank where Hamas has plausible deniability and where Israel finds it hard to punish anyone aside from the specific terror cell involved is another clear way to pressure Israel into some additional concessions and to stay on the map as leading the resistance.

The only good news is that even as Israel has balked at bigger solutions, it has struck back hard to restore some semblance of stability when terror has spiked beyond certain boundaries.

If the latest wave of terror returns to general awful 2022-23 levels and falls from the current incredibly awful levels on its own, the IDF may just do more of the same. But if terror stays at this pace for the coming days and weeks, the IDF is likely to do a Jenin 2 to get it under control.

 

Expansion of BRICS: What are the economic implications?

In late August it was announced that from 2024, the BRICS—a political grouping that currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—will admit six new members: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia.

The eleven countries combined represent around 45% of the planet’s population, over 40% of world oil production and roughly a third of global GDP. The BRICS average economic growth rate is likely to be notably above the global average. That said, the G7’s GDP is still substantially larger at market prices, and should remain so over the medium term.

The group’s key economic institution, the New Development Bank (NDB), is still tiny in comparison to other multilateral lenders. The Bank has financed projects worth around US$33 billion since 2015; in contrast, the World Bank alone committed around US$50 billion each year over the same period.

Other overarching economic structures are lacking, and a BRICS trade deal seems difficult to fathom given members’ vastly different stages of development and policy priorities.

Internal geopolitical disputes could further complicate economic rapprochement between members: Egypt and Ethiopia are at loggerheads over a dam on the Nile River, relations between Iran and its Gulf neighbors are still strained, and there are tensions between India and China over their shared Himalayan border and Indian restrictions on Chinese imports and technology.

The expansion of the BRICS could encourage greater political overtures and financial generosity from the G7 towards emerging markets going forward; the G20 summit later this year will be key to watch, with the UN calling on US$500 billion of annual financing from wealthy nations.

More countries are likely to join the BRICS in the coming years, as current members—particularly China and Russia—look to bolster an alternative to the G7-led world order.

BRICS members will increasingly conduct intra-member trade in local currencies to reduce dependence on the dollar, with the yuan and rupee set to be major beneficiaries.

That said, the US dollar will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future - incumbency, dollar liquidity, the strength of the US economy, and the reliability of the US government as a debt issuer are key advantages. As for the BRICS grouping as a whole, it is likely to remain more of a political than an economic force.

On the BRICS’ prospects, EIU analysts said, “The BRICS group will not become a solid construction, regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall, and it will continue to face internal tensions and divisions. However, the expansion will bolster its geopolitical significance and its combined economic power, and the organization will continue to evolve. The relatively trouble-free and productive BRICS summit will enhance South Africa’s standing without damaging its relations with key Western partners.”

On the future of the dollar, ING analysts said, “Until international issuers and investors are happy to issue and hold international debt in non-dollar currencies – and the take-up of CNY Panda bonds has been very slow indeed – we suspect this will be a decade-long progression to a multi-polar world, a world in which perhaps the dollar, the euro and the renminbi become the dominant currencies in the Americas, Europe and Asia respectively.”

Courtesy: Focus Economics