These
statistics may look very impressive, and no matter what, they show that the
security establishment is working overtime and doing its utmost to protect
Israel. The problem is, these statistics do not occur in a vacuum; there are
others.
Four terror attacks took place between Wednesday and
Thursday, two of them in central areas that cannot be categorized into being
limited to the West Bank.
In
eight months of this year, it has become the bloodiest one since the Second
Intifada nearly 20 years ago.
A question arises, why has terror gotten so out of control?
Some of the apparent reasons may be:
It may be true that the terrorists want to kill Jews, but
the spike in terror and the increase in lone wolf attacks and attacks by some
Palestinians with worker’s permits – people who are not usually involved in
terror – shows that there are bigger tensions than normal.
Another question is why there has been no diplomatic
progress with the Palestinians for so long? Is it because many enemies of
Israel view it as weaker and more distracted than usual by internal tensions
over the judicial overhaul? Because the Palestinian Authority stopped trying to
actively rein in terror?
Is it because the government has steadfastly refused to
undertake a robust Operation Defensive Shield-style operation as in 2002? True,
on July 3-4, the IDF undertook a massive operation in Jenin which improved
things there some, but has not followed that with similar operations in other
problem areas. Or because Iran is leaning in hard to incite a wider amount of
the Palestinian population to terror?
Some mix of these longer-term reasons is likely true. There
are also some near-term reasons.
Hezbollah has gotten away with keeping an outpost in Israeli
territory in the disputed Mount Dov area now for several months. It has also
numerous times violated Israel’s border in low-grade ways without paying much
of a price.
There are reports that Hamas may consider a similar strategy
in the South. In addition to being perpetually committed to Israel’s
destruction, the terror group may be especially upset lately by a cut in its
funds from Qatar.
In 2014, a mix of the Shin Bet and portions of IDF
intelligence warned that allowing Hamas to languish too much economically could
lead to an unexpected and unnecessary war – which it did.
Since then the defense establishment has been louder about
making sure Hamas never drops below a certain economic level.
Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, at Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s direction, is said to be one of the key authors of the arrangement
in which Qatar brings cash to Hamas to keep it afloat, without letting it save
much for new weapons.
None of the defense establishment would publicly address the
current situation with Qatar funding.
It is feared that Hamas may start building its own tents
near the Israeli border fence and re-engage its 2018 strategy of marching on
the fence with a mix of unarmed and armed Palestinians.
It does
not threaten Israel in an existential way, and after the IDF slammed
Islamic Jihad to the mat in May, Hamas is likely not looking for a big war, but
will instead create more instability for Israel.
Increased terror from the West Bank where Hamas has plausible
deniability and where Israel finds it hard to punish anyone aside from the
specific terror cell involved is another clear way to pressure Israel into some
additional concessions and to stay on the map as leading the resistance.
The
only good news is that even as Israel has balked at bigger solutions, it has
struck back hard to restore some semblance of stability when terror has spiked
beyond certain boundaries.
If the
latest wave of terror returns to general awful 2022-23 levels and falls from
the current incredibly awful levels on its own, the IDF may just do more of the
same. But if terror stays at this pace for the coming days and weeks, the IDF
is likely to do a Jenin 2 to get it under control.
