Iran January 2022 oil output rises 21%MoM

Iran’s crude oil production in January 2022 reached 2.503 million barrels per day (bpd), registering a 21% increase as compared to the figure for December 2021, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report. Iran had produced 2.482 million bpd of crude oil in December 2021.

The Iran’s average crude output for the fourth quarter of 2021 stood at 2.480 million bpd indicating a 40,000-bpd increase as compared to the figure for the first quarter of the year, the report indicated.

OPEC put the average Iranian crude output for 2021 at 2.405 million bpd, while the average output in 2020 was 1.988 million bpd.

These statistics show that although with the re-imposition of the US sanctions, Iran's oil production decreased; gradually the country has been able to compensate for part of the output decline.

The country’s heavy crude oil price also increased US$10.91 in January, to register a 14.6% rise as compared to the earlier month.

Iran sold its heavy crude oil at US$85.59 per barrel during the month, under review as compared to December price of US$74.68 per barrel. Based on the OPEC data, the country’s average heavy crude price was US$54.38 in 2021.

In addition to the devastating impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the global oil industry which resulted in the drastic fall in oil production and prices, the Iranian oil industry was under pressure from the US efforts to isolate the country by re-imposing sanctions in 2021.

Iran has been ramping up its oil production over the past few months following the recovery of the global markets from the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and the developments in Vienna talks.

Back in February 2021, Fitch Solutions Incorporation, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, which is one of the three biggest credit rating agencies of United States, saw the Islamic Republic’s crude oil exports double in 2022 compared to 2020.

“The prospects for the Iranian oil sector have brightened significantly following Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election on November 3, 2020. President Biden has indicated that he will seek to re-enter the US into the Iranian nuclear deal, paving the way for a roll-back of secondary sanctions and recovery of around 2.0 million bpd in oil production,” the report said.

 

Japan to supply LNG to Europe amid Ukraine crisis

US asks Japan to offer emergency assistance amid tense faceoff with Russia 

Japan will provide part of its liquefied natural gas imports to Europe from March as simmering tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine undermine energy security in the region, said Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda.

Hagiuda told reporters after separately meeting European Union (EU) Ambassador to Japan Patricia Flor and US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel that the Japanese government took account of requests from the United States and the European Union in making the decision, as well as a gas shortage in Europe.

LNG supply in Japan is currently tight, but we decided to meet the requests as long as a stable supply to Japan is ensured, said Hagiuda.

Industry Ministry officials suggested total shipment to the region in March will likely be several hundred thousand tons.

The government is asking Japanese companies involved in the LNG business for their cooperation even beyond March, Hagiuda said.

Japan, a major LNG importer, will secure enough supply for domestic needs before assisting European countries facing the threat of disruptions to their gas supply from Russia in the event of an incursion by Moscow into Ukraine, according to government sources.

With about 40% of Europe's imports of LNG coming from Russia, the United States has asked Japan to extend energy assistance to ensure stable energy supplies in the region during the winter.

The United States has warned of sanctions if Russia, which has massed troops near the Ukrainian border, invades. There is growing concern that Moscow could significantly restrict LNG exports to Europe in retaliation for Western sanctions.

To reassure allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the United States is sending additional troops to Europe, while Russia has accused the United States and NATO of ignoring security concerns related to Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.

At an energy council meeting in Washington earlier this week, the United States and the EU affirmed their commitment to address risks related to the bloc's energy supply.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell told the meeting that Russia does not hesitate to use its energy supplies to Europe as a weapon for geopolitical gain as energy prices surge worldwide.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, noting Russia's state-owned companies are holding back natural gas exports, said Washington is in discussions with governments and major producers around the world to shore up energy supply throughout Europe, including Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden also warned, after holding talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, that the yet-to-be-activated Nord Stream 2, a gas pipeline project connecting Germany and Russia via the Baltic Sea, will be halted if Russian troops cross into Ukraine.

Japan's LNG move forms part of such international efforts.

But in Japan, the growth in LNG demand for heating tends to outpace that of supply in the month of February, according to an energy industry official.

While Japan has a greater stockpile of LNG this winter than last, some in the energy sector believe it would be challenging to provide surplus LNG during February due to the possibility of a surge in demand.

The United States has urged Japan to consider imposing economic sanctions on Moscow if Russian troops invade Ukraine, according to diplomatic sources.

 

 

What if Israel strikes Iran?

As negotiations between the world powers and Iran in Vienna enter their “final stage,” many in the Middle East and also in Washington and European capitals – hold their breath to question, is return to a nuclear deal with Iran possible?

The arch rival of Iran, Israel is closely following developments in Vienna. Accepting the fact that some agreement with Iran is almost certainly on the way, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently said, “The agreement and what appears to be its conditions will damage the ability to take on Iran’s nuclear program.”

It appears that Israel is getting ready to attack Iran, in case the talks in Vienna fail to produce an agreement and Iran is free to pursue its nuclear program, in addition to its regional activities.

Many Israelis believe that a deal with Iran won’t be able to stop the country from developing a nuclear weapon. Therefore. Israel must get ready to strike Iran. Bennett stated, “Israel will continue to ensure its full freedom of operation in any place and at any time, with no limitations.” The incoming IAF commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar said that the Israel Air Force is ready to attack Iran tomorrow.”

If Israel does indeed attack Iran, as Israeli officials have increasingly implied might happen, what impact would it have on the Middle East? How would the region be any different after such a development?

These questions may be hypothetical now, but they could very well turn out to be reality tomorrow.

To find answers to these question, Wikistrat, a crowdsourced consultancy, ran a weeklong simulation from January 24 to 31, 2022, while the talks in Vienna were still taking place.

To explore how an Israeli strike would impact the region’s stability, the simulation focused on the five actors that were considered the most significant in the Gulf region, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, China and Russia. The simulation included 31 experts from 13 countries and focused on three scenarios: 1) a successful Israeli strike on Iran, 2) a failed strike, and 3) a partially successful strike.

Discussions in the simulation produced a few key insights, which observers of developments in the region may want to keep in mind as they try to make sense of the Middle East in the next few years.

First, the experts argued that in the years after an Israeli military strike ‑ regardless of its results ‑ the Middle East will enter the nuclear proliferation phase, which will include not only Israel but also Iran and possibly Saudi Arabia. An Israeli strike will embolden the Iran regime’s desire to have a nuclear weapon, viewing it – much like North Korea – as a guarantee against future attacks.

For its part, fearing an Iranian nuclear retaliation against it, Saudi Arabia will also seek to develop its own nuclear program. This is based on the participants’ assessment that a failed Israeli strike would drive the Saudi leadership to move forward as quickly as possible with its own nuclear program. A successful strike could serve as a catalyst to the Saudi nuclear program, encouraging Saudi decision-makers to leverage the attack and to catch up with the Iranian nuclear program.

A successful strike could lead to a Saudi-Israeli normalization. Some of the experts argued that a successful Israeli strike might cause Mohammed bin Salman, as king, to normalize relations with Israel, in the expectation that the entrenched anti-Iranian sentiment in Saudi Arabia would outweigh any backlash against normalization.

However, a failed strike could have a negative effect on Israel’s regional position, as Israel was perceived until then as a strong partner to the Gulf states on security affairs and a critical partner for confronting Iran. The experts assessed that if Israel failed to deliver on confronting Iran by failing to destroy its nuclear facilities, Saudi Arabia would be less inclined to engage with it.

While a nuclear deal between the US, other world powers and Iran seems almost certain at this point, the stakes for an unchecked nuclear Iran are higher than ever.

If Israel feels compelled to act alone to stop a nuclear Iran, a completely different geopolitical reality could emerge in the Middle East.

 

Delay in recognizing Taliban government could initiate anarchy in Afghanistan

The animosity of United States with Taliban is evident from the fact that despite taking an exit from Afghanistan as back as on August 15, 2021, the super power has not recognized the Taliban government.

To further add to Taliban insults the US has also not unfrozen foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan. It looks too funny that the super powers are trying to arrange aid for Afghanistan, on the pretext of hunger etc. However, Afghans are barred from using their own foreign exchange reserves.

There is a consensus among the analysts that since the Taliban's takeover of Kabul, the United States has fundamentally altered its approach towards Afghanistan.

The United States is defeating its stated goals of countering terrorism, maintaining regional stability and protecting rights of Afghans, particularly females.

The United States has been beating the drums that the violent conflicts among the armed groups have proliferated.

The fragile economy of Afghanistan is deteriorating fast and the Afghan people are facing an extraordinarily grave humanitarian crisis. The Taliban's interim government is widely viewed as insular and exclusive.

The western media is constantly running stories that Taliban have curtailed rights of girls and women. It is also alleged that Taliban at times have turned a blind eye to abductions, beatings and, in some cases, the torture and killing of journalists, human rights activists and former civilian and military officials. 

Tom West was appointed the US Special Representative for Afghanistan in October 2021, and assigned task of advancing US objectives in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US and NATO forces and the Taliban takeover.

As part of his efforts, he engages in dialogue representatives of Taliban, regional leaders, the international community and Afghan political and civil society members to find ways to assist the Afghan people while protecting US national security interests.

I am shocked to know that a US Think Tank intends to invite the US Special Representative for consultations with the Taliban, other Afghans and the international community to find ways of supporting the Afghan people during this period of significant transition for the country.

According to the critics of Afghanistan policy of the United States, it is feared that whatever armaments the super power has abandoned in Afghanistan may be ultimately repossessed and used by ISIS and/or anti-Taliban groups.

United States interested in working closely with Bangladesh

The newly-appointed Ambassador of United States to Bangladesh, Peter D. Haas has said he looks forward to working with Dhaka to further advance the relationship between the two countries. 

He was speaking at an interaction session with the officers of the Bangladesh Embassy in Washington DC. Haas is expected to arrive in Dhaka in early March to assume charges.

The new envoy was received by the Bangladesh Ambassador to the United States, M. Shahidul Islam and other officials of the Mission.

During the discussion, the ambassadors of the two countries expressed their resolve to work closely to further strengthen the friendly relations between Bangladesh and the United States.

They also laid emphasis on greater engagements of the two sides and undertaking mutually beneficial program and actions to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Bangladesh and the United States.

Bangladesh’s location holds significant strategic value for Beijing. China relies on the Strait of Malacca, a narrow waterway between Malaysia, Singapore, and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, to import energy and goods from the Middle East and Africa via the Indian Ocean.

The Strait of Malacca could become a high-risk passageway in the event of a potential conflict either in the South China Sea or the India-China border. Consequently, China has taken a number of initiatives to build alternative routes aimed at reducing dependence on the Strait of Malacca. Seeking port facilities in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal region along with overland connections to them is one of the efforts in this direction.

It may be recalled that Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming recently expressed concerns that China-Bangladesh relations will suffer if Dhaka joins the Quad, an informal grouping that aims to counterbalance Beijing.

Though China shares no border with Bangladesh, the distance between the two countries is only about 100 kilometers. Beijing hopes to bridge this distance through infrastructure that would link the two countries closer.

The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor is one of the six proposed economic corridors of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh enjoys a strategic location in Beijing’s strategic advances in the Indian Ocean.

US troops arrive in Poland to reinforce NATO

The dichotomy of Military Policy of United States is evident. It recently asked 160 troops to move out of Ukraine, but landed fresh troops in Poland. The troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe arrived at a military base in southeastern Poland on Saturday.

The US troops arrived in a small Beechcraft C-12 Huron that landed at Rzeszow military base on February  05, Polish military spokesman Major Przemyslaw Lipczynski told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Lipczynski said the arrivals included some support and command-level staff, adding that a much larger contingent is expected to arrive at the airfield on Sunday. The second transport was initially slated for arrival on Saturday afternoon, but those plans were changed for undisclosed reasons, Lipczynski added.

“We await the arrival of our allies,” Lipczynski told PAP, adding that “our collaboration has been going very smoothly.”

In total, some 1,700 US soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are expected to be stationed in Poland, the spokesman said, describing it as an elite rapid response force that Polish troops have worked with on multiple occasions.

“We served alongside them on missions, including Iraq and Afghanistan,” Lipczynski said, adding that the soldiers had also trained together during international war games like Dragon and Anaconda.

“We can count on each other, and trust one another,” he added.

The US troop contingent arrived on the same day that the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Moscow ally Belarus, which shares a border with Poland.

“In the course of their flight, the long-range aircraft practiced joint tasks with the air force and air defense of the Belarusian armed forces,” according to Russian state news agency TASS. The patrol mission lasted around four hours, after which the Russian planes returned to base in Russia.

The patrol mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and other remote parts of Russia to Belarus for sweeping joint drills, with the deployment adding to a large Russian military buildup near Ukraine that has fueled Western fears of a possible invasion.

Russia has denied any plans of attacking Ukraine and has asked the United States and its allies for a binding commitment that they won’t accept Ukraine into NATO.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s admission into the military alliance.

The Kremlin has also asked the United States and its allies to promise not to deploy offensive weapons and to roll back NATO deployments to Eastern Europe.

Washington and NATO have rejected those demands.

“From our perspective it can’t be clearer—NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late January, though he renewed an offer of “reciprocal” measures to address mutual security concerns between Russia and NATO, including missile reductions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled Moscow’s readiness for more talks with Washington and its NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz were scheduled to make separate trip to Kyiv and Moscow as part of a high-level diplomatic effort to defuse tensions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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First US Troops Arrive in Poland to Reinforce NATO Amid Russia–Ukraine Tensions

By Tom Ozimek

 

February 5, 2022 Updated: February 6, 2022

biggersmaller 

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The first U.S. troops reinforcing NATO allies in Eastern Europe amid Russia–Ukraine tensions arrived at a military base in southeastern Poland on Saturday.

A handful of U.S. troops arrived in a small Beechcraft C-12 Huron that landed at Rzeszow military base shortly after 10 a.m. on Feb. 5, Polish military spokesman Major Przemyslaw Lipczynski told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).

Lipczynski said the arrivals included some support and command-level staff, adding that a much larger contingent is expected to arrive at the airfield on Sunday. The second transport was initially slated for arrival on Saturday afternoon, but those plans were changed for undisclosed reasons, Lipczynski added.

“We await the arrival of our allies,” Lipczynski told PAP, adding that “our collaboration has been going very smoothly.”

In total, some 1,700 U.S. soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, are expected to be stationed in Poland, the spokesman said, describing it as an elite rapid response force that Polish troops have worked with on multiple occasions.

“We served alongside them on missions, including Iraq and Afghanistan,” Lipczynski said, adding that the soldiers had also trained together during international war games like Dragon and Anaconda.

“We can count on each other, and trust one another,” he added.

The U.S. troop contingent arrived on the same day that the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had sent a pair of long-range nuclear-capable bombers on patrol over Moscow ally Belarus, which shares a border with Poland.

“In the course of their flight, the long-range aircraft practiced joint tasks with the air force and air defense of the Belarusian armed forces,” the ministry said, according to Russian state news agency TASS. The patrol mission lasted around four hours, after which the Russian planes returned to base in Russia.

The patrol mission came as the Kremlin has moved troops from Siberia and other remote parts of Russia to Belarus for sweeping joint drills, with the deployment adding to a large Russian military buildup near Ukraine that has fueled Western fears of a possible invasion.

Russia has denied any plans of attacking Ukraine and has asked the United States and its allies for a binding commitment that they won’t accept Ukraine into NATO.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has pushed for his country’s admission into the military alliance.

The Kremlin has also asked the United States and its allies to promise not to deploy offensive weapons and to roll back NATO deployments to Eastern Europe.

Washington and NATO have rejected those demands.

“From our perspective. I can’t be more clear—NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in late January, though he renewed an offer of “reciprocal” measures to address mutual security concerns between Russia and NATO, including missile reductions in Europe.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled Moscow’s readiness for more talks with Washington and its NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are set to make separate trips on Feb. 7–8 and Feb. 14–15 to Kyiv and Moscow as part of a high-level diplomatic effort to defuse tensions.

 

Lloyd Austin orders 160 US troops to move out of Ukraine

I have often highlighted in my blogs that hundreds of CIA operators work in different countries, where the United States has vested interest. The most naked was the involvement of US Ambassador in Bin Ghazi, capital of Libya, who was killed later. 

The latest is the order of US Defense Secretary to 160 US troops in Ukraine to reposition themselves in Europe.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 160 US troops in Ukraine to be repositioned in Europe. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby tweeted Saturday that Austin has ordered 160 Florida National Guardsmen out of Ukraine and into Europe temporarily.

“Abundance of caution, safety and security of our personnel is his paramount concern. We remain committed to our relationship with the Ukrainian armed forces,” Kirby said.

The decision came after Austin had a call with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu.

The Department of Defense said the two discussed Russia’s build up of troops and equipment along Ukraine's border. 

Russia has more than 140,000 troops on the border of Ukraine as well as military vehicles and helicopters. The buildup has remained for weeks now, prompting the US, Canada, UK and its allies that Russia will invade. 

The announcement from Kirby comes as the US continues to encourage Americans — both government employees and other citizens — to leave the Ukraine amid threats of Russian aggression. 

White House Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that the US would not send in troops to the country for rescue missions should Americans choose to stay in the former Soviet state. 

The State Department announced early Saturday morning that it was evacuating most employees from the US Embassy in Kyiv, citing the military situation on the border. 

US officials say an attack by Russia could happen at any time in the near future. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday there will be a "resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response" if an invasion occurs, and thousands of US troops have been sent to Poland amid rising tensions.