The arch rival of Iran, Israel is closely following
developments in Vienna. Accepting the fact that some agreement with Iran is
almost certainly on the way, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett recently said,
“The agreement and what appears to be its conditions will damage the ability to
take on Iran’s nuclear program.”
It appears that Israel is getting ready to attack Iran, in
case the talks in Vienna fail to produce an agreement and Iran is free to
pursue its nuclear program, in addition to its regional activities.
Many Israelis believe that a deal with Iran won’t be able to
stop the country from developing a nuclear weapon. Therefore. Israel must get
ready to strike Iran. Bennett stated, “Israel will continue to ensure its full
freedom of operation in any place and at any time, with no limitations.” The
incoming IAF commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar said that the Israel Air Force is
ready to attack Iran tomorrow.”
If Israel does indeed attack Iran, as Israeli officials have
increasingly implied might happen, what impact would it have on the Middle
East? How would the region be any different after such a development?
These questions may be hypothetical now, but they could very
well turn out to be reality tomorrow.
To find answers to these question, Wikistrat, a crowdsourced
consultancy, ran a weeklong simulation from January 24 to 31, 2022, while the talks
in Vienna were still taking place.
To explore how an Israeli strike would impact the region’s
stability, the simulation focused on the five actors that were considered the
most significant in the Gulf region, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States,
China and Russia. The simulation included 31 experts from 13 countries and
focused on three scenarios: 1) a successful Israeli strike on Iran, 2) a failed
strike, and 3) a partially successful strike.
Discussions in the simulation produced a few key insights,
which observers of developments in the region may want to keep in mind as they
try to make sense of the Middle East in the next few years.
First, the experts argued that in the years after an Israeli
military strike ‑ regardless of its results ‑ the Middle East will enter the
nuclear proliferation phase, which will include not only Israel but also Iran
and possibly Saudi Arabia. An Israeli strike will embolden the Iran regime’s
desire to have a nuclear weapon, viewing it – much like North Korea – as a
guarantee against future attacks.
For its part, fearing an Iranian nuclear retaliation against
it, Saudi Arabia will also seek to develop its own nuclear program. This is
based on the participants’ assessment that a failed Israeli strike would drive
the Saudi leadership to move forward as quickly as possible with its own
nuclear program. A successful strike could serve as a catalyst to the Saudi
nuclear program, encouraging Saudi decision-makers to leverage the attack and
to catch up with the Iranian nuclear program.
A successful strike could lead to a Saudi-Israeli
normalization. Some of the experts argued that a successful Israeli strike
might cause Mohammed bin Salman, as king, to normalize relations with Israel,
in the expectation that the entrenched anti-Iranian sentiment in Saudi Arabia
would outweigh any backlash against normalization.
However, a failed strike could have a negative effect on
Israel’s regional position, as Israel was perceived until then as a strong partner
to the Gulf states on security affairs and a critical partner for confronting
Iran. The experts assessed that if Israel failed to deliver on confronting Iran
by failing to destroy its nuclear facilities, Saudi Arabia would be less
inclined to engage with it.
While a nuclear deal between the US, other world powers and
Iran seems almost certain at this point, the stakes for an unchecked nuclear
Iran are higher than ever.
If Israel feels compelled to act alone to stop a nuclear
Iran, a completely different geopolitical reality could emerge in the Middle
East.
