Increases in shipping rates and consumer prices in Asia

According to an IMF Report, as the world economy recovers from the pandemic, inflation is mounting in advance and emerging economies. Pent-up demand fueled by stimulus and pandemic disruptions is helping accelerate inflation, spread around the world through global factors like higher food and energy prices, and soaring shipping costs.

It is believed that Asia’s inflation has been more moderate as compared to other regions, affording central banks room to keep interest rates low and support economic recovery. However, Asia’s tepid price gains may see greater momentum in year 2022. The outlook remains uncertain, and central banks should be ready to tighten policy if inflation pressures and expectations mount.

Several factors explain Asia’s lower inflation. Among Asia’s emerging economies, a delayed recovery has kept core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy costs—running at half the rate of peers in other regions. The cost of food—which makes up about one third of the consumer price index baskets—grew 1.6% over the past year as against 9.1% in other regions.

This reflects unique factors such as a solid harvest in India, a hog population rebound from a recent swine flu epidemic in China, and contained increases in rice prices. By contrast, lower inflation in Asia’s advanced economies reflects a different set of factors. The region has enjoyed more muted energy inflation than Europe and the United States.

Some Asian countries managed the pandemic in a way that avoided major supply disruptions and the associated pressure on prices. Korea embraced comprehensive contact tracing and testing, for example, while Australia and China contained infections with border closures and localized lockdowns.

Broad inflationary pressures will eventually moderate globally, as supply-demand mismatches ease and stimulus recedes. But in 2022, as the recovery strengthens, the persistent impact of high shipping costs could put an end to the benign inflation Asia has enjoyed in 2021.

One benchmark measure of global shipping costs, the Baltic Dry Index, tripled this year through October. IMF analysis shows such large increases in shipping costs boost inflation for 12 months, which could add about 1.5% points to the pace of Asia’s inflation in the second half of 2022.

Israel expresses readiness to attack Iranian nuclear assets

Israel could successfully strike Iran's nuclear program tomorrow if necessary, said incoming Commander of the Israel Air Force (IAF) Maj-Gen Tomer Bar in a recent interview. 

Bar, who currently commands the Force Design Directorate, will take command of the Air Force in April and could be the officer who will need to command a strike against Iran's nuclear program should ongoing talks in Vienna between Tehran and world powers fail.

"I have to assume it will happen in my time, and my shoulders already understand the weight of the responsibility," Bar told.

When asked if he thinks Israel can successfully destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, Bar stressed that "there is no way that we will operate there, one thousand kilometers from here, and I will return home without being able to say 'I completed the mission.'"

Despite reports about the lack of a budget hindering the IDF's preparations for a possible strike on Iran, the incoming IAF commander said that the situation is "not black and white."

"From the moment I sat here at the head of the Force Design Directorate, and the chief of staff spoke with me, the mission of the 'third circle' (Iran) was there," Bar said.

"We are not starting from zero. We equipped ourselves with F-35s, [do they] not know how to get to the third circle? We procured thousands of Iron Dome interceptors for multi-layer defense."

Concerning the reported US refusal to advance the delivery of two KC-46 tanker refueling aircraft to Israel, Bar said that he was at the meeting when the request was made and that the IDF is currently examining the reason for the refusal.

"The US is more than an acquaintance, and they have a desire to form deep and real cooperation. I do not know the reason for the refusal, but I have not yet exhausted the possibility of getting at least two refuelers in advance."

On the northern front with Lebanon, Bar said he believes that the next war with Hezbollah will break out as soon as Israel strikes Iran.

"I have to assume that he -Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah - will automatically be all in. 30 years he has waited for this order and there is no way that he will not be there and with the highest intensity," Bar said. "We have to be prepared for this."

The outgoing Force Design Directorate head stressed that the Third Lebanon War "cannot be compared" to the first two wars with Lebanon. "This is not raising the volume on the same radio.

The familiarity with Hezbollah, the number of targets, the strength built over the years in matters of intelligence and attack capability, electronic warfare, cyber" make it a whole different scenario. "I can stand by my word."

Bar added that the next war with Lebanon will definitely involve a ground operation, saying that combined with the effectiveness of the IAF "is something else entirely."

"Even Hezbollah... does not know how to imagine our power," he said. "Maybe they will try to bring in Special Forces or shoot at the home front, but we are no longer on this scale. We want a clear victory this time, in a shorter time and with fewer losses."

Meanwhile, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan landed in Israel on Tuesday to hold detailed discussions with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Iran's nuclear program.

The US and Israeli officials will talk about how they see the coming weeks unfolding with Iran during the discussions, a senior Biden administration official told Reuters.

"We will talk about where we see the state of Iran's nuclear program and some of the timelines," the official said. "It will be a good opportunity to sit down face-to-face and talk about the state of the talks and the time frame in which we are working, and to re-emphasize that we don't have much time."

 

Is United States seeking Israel approval for Iran nuclear talks?

A senior official in the administration of the US President Joe Biden disclosed that National Security adviser Jake Sullivan will visit Israel this week for detailed discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on the Vienna talks regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Sullivan will be joined by the National Security Council's Middle East director Brett McGurk among other US officials. They will also meet with Palestinian President Mohammed Abbas in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah to discuss strengthening relations with the Palestinians.

The Palestinian Authority ceased contact with the previous US administration saying it was no longer a fair broker in the so-called peace process. Observers have very little hope Biden can achieve anything to bring peace to the conflict. They say the visit to Ramallah is just a stunt.

Experts say the trip is more than likely to be dominated by the Vienna talks where Iran and the P4+1 group of parties are engaged in talks on a possible return to the original format of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed in 2015.

Negotiators are reporting slow progress at the talks in Vienna which are aimed at lifting the illegal US sanctions imposed on Iran after the former administration of President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the UN backed agreement.

The Biden administration official speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity, said the US and Israeli officials will talk about how they see the coming weeks unfolding with Iran.

"We will talk about where we see Iran's nuclear program and some of the timelines," the official said. "It will be a good opportunity to sit down face-to-face and talk about the state of the talks, the timeframe in which we are working, and to re-emphasize that we don't have much time."

Many analysts have said that the back and forth flights between Washington and Tel Aviv during the Vienna talks on Iran show the Israeli regime is taking the lead role in America’s position to the Iran Nuclear Deal and Biden is anything but the Commander in Chief here, let alone serving America’s interests.

Afghanistan needs a sustainable government

Pakistan has just played host to the biggest international gathering on Afghanistan in which Iran actively participated and submitted a number of proposals to address the dire situation in neighboring Afghanistan.

On Sunday, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation held an extraordinary session on Afghanistan at the request of Saudi Arabia. The meeting of the OIC council of foreign ministers was held in Islamabad, Pakistan with the participation of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. 

The session was the latest effort by Pakistan to put the limelight on the dire situation of Afghanistan amid growing international apathy toward the war-torn country. Since the rise of the Taliban a few months ago, Afghanistan has turned into a pariah state with no legitimate and internationally recognized government.

In August, the Taliban overthrew the US-backed government in Kabul and assumed power. But it is yet to be recognized by any country. Since then, some of Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Iran, have tried to help the Afghan people while encouraging the Taliban into forming a broad-based government representing all Afghan ethnoreligious groups. The Taliban has announced a caretaker government that raised alarm bells across the globe for excluding women and ethnic groups. 

The Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, was in attendance at the OIC meeting but he was excluded from the family photo of the 17th Extraordinary Session of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers given the fact that none of the OIC member states has recognized the Taliban-led government. 

With the Taliban government continuing to be unrecognized, the international community has faced difficulty providing humanitarian aid to the Afghan people who are grappling with economic hardships during a frosty winter. 

Iran and some other countries have sent many planeloads of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. But some countries are concerned about and unwilling to directly provide aid to Kabul. This was addressed during the OIC meeting which pledged to set up a humanitarian trust fund for Afghanistan.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qureshi also pointed to this issue. He said many want to make donations, but they don't want to donate directly, they want a certain mechanism that will comfort them.

Commenting on the OIC-proposed mechanism, Qureshi said that the mechanism has been established, and donations will be made. 

Prime Minister Imran Khan also highlighted the dire situation in Afghanistan. “Unless action is taken immediately, Afghanistan is heading for chaos,” he said, adding, “Any government when it can’t pay its salaries for its public servants, hospitals, doctors, nurses, any government is going to collapse but chaos suits no one, it certainly does not suit the United States.”

Pakistan seems to believe that the non-recognition of the Taliban’s government would further exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan. But the Taliban also failed to meet the requirements of the international community in regard to the formation of an inclusive government. 

Iran sought to help the Taliban in this regard by presenting a four-point proposal that seems to be devised to pave the way for recognition of the Taliban by the international community. 

In his speech at the OIC meeting, Amir Abdollahian unveiled Iran’s proposal that he said was made in support of the people of Afghanistan.

“First, Muslim states should encourage the ruling establishment in Afghanistan and all parties to form an inclusive government. Second, the people of Afghanistan are in dire need of urgent humanitarian assistance. The formation of a financial fund among the Muslim states seems necessary to realize this objective,” Amir Abdollahian said. 

He added, “Third, it is also necessary to release Afghanistan’s assets. Fourth, undoubtedly, the UN member states and its Secretary General can play a leading role in contributing to the formation of an inclusive government and assisting the people of Afghanistan and prevent a new humanitarian catastrophe.”

The Iranian foreign minister also expressed hope that an inclusive government will soon be formed in Afghanistan with the participation of all Afghan ethnic groups so that its representative will be able to attend the next OIC conference and Afghanistan’s seat won’t be vacant.  

Amir Abdollahian reiterated Iran’s position during a meeting with Imran Khan. He pointed out that the Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan's neighbors, regional countries and the UN to facilitate the establishment of a broad-based government in Afghanistan by Afghans themselves. Amir Abdollahian also spoke of bilateral issues between Iran and Pakistan, especially the issue of border cooperation.

 

Iran’s growing trade with ECO member countries

Iran’s trade with the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) exceeded US$10.447 billion in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-November 22) to register a 44% increase year on year (YoY), the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said.

According to Ruhollah Latifi, the volume of trade with the mentioned countries also increased by 34 percent in comparison to the previous year’s same eight months, IRNA reported.

As reported, during the mentioned period Iran traded over 21,778,387 tons of commodities worth US$10.447 billion with ECO member countries including Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Iran exported 18.631 million tons of commodities worth over US$6.823 billion to the said nations in the mentioned period.

He said major export destinations of the Iranian goods in the said union were Turkey with about US$3.767 billion of imports, Afghanistan with US$1.27 billion, Pakistan with US$764.389 million, and Azerbaijan with US$335.843 million.

As reported, the Islamic Republic’s export to ECO members increased by 46% and 54% as compared to the figures for the previous year in terms of weight and value, respectively.

Meanwhile, the country imported 3,147,332 tons of goods valued at over US$3.623 billion from the ECO member countries, with Turkey, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan being the top sources of imported goods.

The value of Iranian imports from the ECO union also increased by 28% as compared to the previous year’s same time span, the official said.

According to Latifi, more than 23.723 million tons of goods worth US$11.71 billion were traded between Iran and the ECO member countries during the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 20), of which the share of exports was 18.419 million tons of goods worth US$6.890 billion and the share of imports from these countries was 5.312 million tons worth US$4.819 billion.

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade during the first eight months of the current year stood at about US$33 billion, Latifi had previously announced.

The Economic Cooperation Organization or ECO is an Asian political and economic intergovernmental organization that was founded in 1985 in Tehran by the leaders of Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey.

 

Creation of Bangladesh: Javed Jabbar presents another perspective

The first screening of Javed Jabbar’s documentary, ‘Separation of East Pakistan — The Untold Story’ at the Cinepax Packages Mall left the audience amazed at the ways how history had been manipulated against Pakistan, purposefully creating issues between Bangladesh and Pakistan to ensure continued regional unrest.

In the documentary, experts and intellectual leaders address the false information and share little-known facts about 1971. The documentary claims how the plight and insecurities of the vulnerable people of the then East Pakistan were misused by the international community to promote a separatist movement when they, including Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, did not necessarily want an independent nation.

It poses the question how it is even possible that those who created Pakistan would want to break it. The documentary unfolds the reality and full extent of India’s involvement in the region, which is not limited to 1971 but, actually started years before.

Most importantly, it clarifies the fake news spread by those against Pakistan of the number of people killed and raped and clears the misnomers of the supposed, non-violent movement. The documentary also outlines the misjudgments made by those in power at the time, which created conducive environment for regional powers to play politics and break up a nation.

The documentary is an important step to clarify what really happened, to move towards improving relationships between Bangladesh and Pakistan. It is a time we told the true story so that we can build stronger ties with our Muslim brothers.

Speaking on the occasion, former Senator and Federal Information Minister Javed Jabbar said that 1971 was the source of an enduring pain and melancholy. Throwing light on the documentary, he said he had found many well-written books and vast amount of literature on 1971 tragedy but could not find even a single documentary on the subject that’s why this documentary was produced. He held in high esteem the team behind the documentary, especially the producer Iram Shahid.

Jabbar said the documentary would be dubbed into Urdu for making it understandable for more people. The documentary also featured interviews of eminent scholars who all had endorsed its edited version, he said and added that making of the documentary would not have been possible without the military-civil cooperation for the archival material. The documentary screenings would also be held in Islamabad and Karachi.

 

Macron leading the charge against Biden

Lately, French President, Emmanuel Macron said he would rather work with the International Olympic Committee to protect athletes all over the world rather than participate in symbolic boycotts of the China games. “We must not politicize the Olympics,” said Macron.

“I prefer to do things that have a positive impact on the international stage, as I do with everything else.”

The United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom are among the Western countries that have announced that they will not send officials to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics in order to send a message to China about its human rights record.

Foreign Affairs Ministers of European Union (EU) were scheduled to meet in Brussels to discuss the issue, but they were not likely to agree to follow the US stance.

“We’re not rushing into it,” said one EU diplomat.

“I don’t think people are rushing to support the US position.”

China said it was unconcerned about a ‘domino effect’ of diplomatic boycotts after Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada joined the United States in refusing to send officials to the Olympics.

Because of China’s atrocities in the western region of Xinjiang, the United States was the first to announce a boycott, say that its government officials would not attend the February 4-20 Games next year.

“I don’t see any need to be concerned about any domino effect,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said during a daily press conference when asked about the possibility of more boycotts.

“On the contrary, the Beijing Winter Olympics have received widespread support from around the world.”

The US and its allies’ diplomatic boycotts come after a sharp deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington, which began under former US President Donald Trump.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has continued to put pressure on China on a number of issues, including human rights and China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea.

Wang noted that the United Nations on December 02, 2020 adopted a resolution calling for an ‘Olympic Truce’ during the Beijing Games, which was co-sponsored by more than 170 of the 193 member states.

According to him, quite a few foreign leaders and members of royal families had signed up to attend.