Never ending tragedy of ready-made garment workers in Bangladesh

According to a Dhaka Tribune report, like every year, just before the Eid holidays, ready-made garment (RMG) workers had to resort to street processions demanding their full salary and bonus. 

Reports indicated that RMG workers demonstrated in Mirpur, Uttara, and Savar, causing traffic disruptions across Dhaka. Police dispersed them by shooting tear gas, injuring many workers.

Though people have become accustomed to seeing protests by RMG workers, these events are paradoxical if considered that the RMG industry is one of the pillars of the country’s growing economy. Yet, these workers face neglect and misery, and just before the Eid holidays, their tragedies become more apparent.

The recent protests started after the government on April 11, 2022 instructed factory owners to pay 15 days’ wages before the holiday. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) claimed that factories were prepared to follow the directive, but “if any factory owners want to pay their workers for the full month, they can.”

This is unfortunate that the government advised not to disburse full salary — observers do not think any service holder would have liked it if they did not get their full monthly salary and bonus before the Eid holidays.

Since the government announced the directive to pay trunked salaries before Eid, workers’ leaders predicted unrest, but the factory owners repeatedly said there was no fear of turmoil. Since the decision was publicized, observers heard the news about road blockades demanding full salary. Skeptics claimed that worker leaders uttered the demands for their interests or served a vested quarter.

One could argue that in capitalism, workers’ well-being is hardly a concern for the industry owners. In addition, they are motivated by profit-making possibilities. However, this tendency to hold back some money before the workers go on holiday is a labour management strategy for ensuring their timely return. But from the workers’ perspective, not receiving salary on time is a significant breach of promise, as most workers would claim, “if we do not get our salary on time, there is no point in going to our family.”

Bangladesh will soon become a middle-income country, but when will RMG workers’ tragedies end?

The difficulties RMG workers usually face in getting their full salary and bonus seem incongruent with the export income earned by the garment sector. Following the Covid-19 setback, businesses have gained pace; in the last fiscal year, Bangladesh earned export proceeds of US$38.75 billion. Besides, during the previous nine months (July-March) of this fiscal year, Bangladesh exported RMG products worth US$31.42 billion gaining a YoY growth of 33.81%.

While the sector is thriving in business volume, the workers had to take to the streets with demands to receive their salary on time.

To recap some events that shocked many during the two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Even though a stimulus package of Tk 5000 crore was announced for the RMG sector, from April to May 2020 alone, 18,000 workers were dismissed as per estimates of the Department of Inspection of Factories and Establishments. Moreover, Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB) has found that as much as 42% of the RMG workers primarily employed in micro, small, and medium-sized factories, did not receive help from the stimulus package.

If one looks a little further back, during the first wave of Covid in the country, on the morning of April 4, 2020, many were shocked to see a rush toward Dhaka. This rang an alarm as the country was supposed to remain under lockdown to minimize the risks of spreading the virus. Late in the evening of that day, the BGMEA President requested the closure of all the factories during the lockdown period.

But by then, many had travelled to Dhaka, and many were stuck in between. As an institution, BGMEA restated that they could not force any factories to remain closed. Unfortunately, the government did not ask the factories to shut down; instead, it only discussed measures to ensure the workers’ salaries were on time to justify their questionable actions. The workers went through this toil as many did not receive their pending salary before the lockdown started on March 26 and were likely to lose their jobs if they would not report to the factory as and when instructed. The testimonies of the returnee garment workers revealed such concerns.

Bangladesh went into another lockdown phase in 2021, starting from July 23 until August 5. However, upon repeated requests from the industry owners, the authorities suddenly decided on the afternoon of July 30 to reopen export-oriented industries on August 1, including the RMG sector — while the entire country would follow the lockdown till 5 August. Therefore, people rushed to get back to the industrial cities to save jobs, but there was hardly enough public transport. Hence, these workers had to pay five to 10 times higher fares to reach their factories on time.

During the negotiations with the government, factory owners claimed they would start operations with the workers living near factory areas, and workers who travelled to the villages would join later. However, many workers said factory supervisors contacted them over the phone and asked them to join work on August 1. Ignoring health and social distancing directives, hundreds of thousands of workers travelled in crammed goods transports, auto-rickshaws, rickshaw vans, and even walked to their workplaces in Dhaka, Narayanganj, and Gazipur to save their jobs.

RMG workers toil throughout the year towards meeting production targets and eventually contribute to earning foreign currencies, but it is tragic to see them protesting for unpaid salaries. For demanding their rightful wage, workers face police brutality, and many workers lose their jobs having allegations of “creating disruption” in production.

Even if these protests do not turn into outright conflict, these events reflect the power imbalance between workers and owners — that culminated in the Rana Plaza calamity back in 2013.

 

United States portrayal of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

As negotiations between the world powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran continues over the revival of the 2015 nuclear agreement, the last barrier to a deal is, Tehran’s demand for the United States to remove its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the foreign terrorist organization (FTO) list.

Naturally, this demand has triggered a heated debate in Washington between proponents and opponents. Proponents of such a move — including Khamal Kharrazi, former Iranian foreign minister — claim the IRGC does not belong on the FTO list as it is a national army that is no different from Saudi Arabia’s National Guard.

By contrast, opponents argue that removing the IRGC from the FTO list would legitimize an entity that has the characteristics of a terrorist organization and engages in widespread acts of terrorism.

A research prepared by a US Think-tank reveals that the nature of IRGC is not a conventional state armed force and should not be treated as such. The IRGC is an ideological organization that shares key characteristics with other designated Islamist organizations, including its quest for an expansionist Islamic state, a global Islamic order, forceful imposition of sharia law (Shi’a interpretation), militaristic concept of jihad, and anti-American and anti-Semitic ideology.

The finding of a US research paper reveals three visible trends in the IRGC. The first relates to indoctrination becoming an increasing focal point in the Guard. Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his hardline circle have sought to nurture a more radical IRGC generation by dedicating more time to ideological indoctrination of its members. The promotion system within the ranks of the IRGC also favors ideological conviction over technical expertise, ensuring the most zealous members rise up within the chain of command.

The second trend relates to the increasing priority given to Mahdism within the IRGC’s ideology. From the post-2009 period onwards, the doctrine of Mahdism has become one of the main prisms through which the IRGC and affiliated hardline clerics would understand the world around them and the IRGC’s actions, as well as communicate that understanding. In turn, there has been greater emphasis on viewing the IRGC as the military vehicle to prepare the foundations for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, with policy objectives such as hostility toward the US and the eradication of Israel being understood through this prism. This is consistent with the goal of Khamenei and his hardline allies, such as Ayatollah Alamalhouda, the supreme leader’s representative to Khorasan and President Ebrahim Raisi’s father-in-law, to transform the concept of Mahdism from a set of feelings into an “ideological belief.”

The third and final trend relates to the IRGC’s younger generations becoming more radical and extreme. In this regard, efforts by Khamenei and the Guard’s Ideological-Political Organization to nurture a more radical generation among the IRGC has paid, and is paying, dividends.

Against this backdrop, the rise of devout followers of the militaristic doctrine of Mahdism among the senior ranks of the IRGC is not inconceivable and should not be ruled out. While there is hope that the IRGC’s senior leadership will act pragmatically, internal structures within the Guard — including its indoctrination and promotion system — certainly open up the possibility that devoted Mahdists could occupy senior leadership positions.

Such a scenario could have far-reaching consequences as it would bring the three pillars of the IRGC’s foreign policy — militias, ballistic missiles, and the nuclear program — under their control. Even if a small number of devout Mahdists occupy senior positions in the Guard, it is possible that they may seek to facilitate and speed up the return of Mahdi. This would have major implications for some of the policies that are being understood through the prism of Mahdism, such as Israel’s existence being the “greatest barrier” to the reappearance of the 12th Imam.

At present the doctrine of Mahdism in the IRGC remains a complete blind spot for Western policymakers, yet it could have major implications for the Islamic Republic’s militia network, ballistic missile program, and even its nuclear program. Of course, no one knows for sure if devout adherents of the ideology will attain senior command positions in the IRGC. The objective of this paper, however, is simply to point out that it would be unwise not to prepare for this scenario given the huge implications it would have for US and global security.

Russia-Ukraine conflict paves way for free trade agreements among EU members

Russia’s war with Ukraine is giving member countries of the European Union fresh incentives to speed up work on free-trade agreements. At least nine nations including Germany and Spain are planning to send a letter to the EU seeking to speed the delayed talks, according to a Bloomberg report.

The signatories want faster negotiations with New Zealand, Australia, India and Indonesia, while speeding the implementation of accords agreed with Chile, Mexico and the Mercosur bloc of countries, which include Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.  

The letter also says that the process to negotiate, sign and implement trade deals is too long, and points out that the massive Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was signed in late 2020 and will enter into force this year for most members.

In Brussels, a slow-moving trade bureaucracy has often been displaced and made irrelevant by quicker political developments.

For example, in 2016 a transatlantic trade deal negotiated during the Obama administration tanked after Donald Trump’s election reversed the trajectory of US-EU trade liberalization efforts.

Then in late 2020 the EU announced the conclusion of its seven-year investment negotiations with China, only to see it promptly belly flop after Brussels clashed with Beijing over its alleged human-rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Trade agreements take time to complete and sometimes span the length of entire careers, which makes it understandably frustrating to see years of hard work go down the drain.

Now Russia’s invasion is hastening a fundamental rewiring of the global economy that is reinforcing existing trade ties among geopolitical allies and incentivizing new ones. It’ll play out in the months ahead through business decisions about supply chains and government deal-making.

“In a post-invasion world, it has become increasingly untenable to isolate trade from universal values such as respect for international law and human rights,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in a speech last month.

Shifts are occurring from dependence to diversification, from efficiency to security, and from globalization to regionalization, she said.

In Russia, businesses and the government may already be substituting imports from Europe with imports from Asia, according to Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator.

The Russian port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea has recently seen a significant increase in the number of container ships arriving, whereas the port of St. Petersburg, which is involved in European trade, continues to record declines, Stamer said in a post Thursday.

“This could be a first indication of trade diversion” and “makes it all the more important to create economic incentives for countries such as India to move closer to Europe rather than Russia,” he added.

 

Iranian port Chabahar handles nearly 2 million tons goods in a year

As announced by a provincial official, nearly 2 million tons of basic commodities were transported from Chabahar port, in the southeast of Iran, to the designated destinations throughout the country in the past Iranian calendar year 1400 ended in March 2022.

Mehrollah Damough, the head of goods transportation office of Road Maintenance and Transportation Department of Sistan-Baluchestan province, where the strategic port lies, said that the mentioned commodities were transported by almost 80,000 trucks.

Chabahar is an important port and a low-cost route for Central Asian countries, which with its strategic unloading and loading equipment has the potential to become a key transit corridor for international transit and transportation, the official further underlined.

As announced by the Deputy Head of Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), 30.9 million tons of basic goods worth US$19.6 billion were cleared from the customs in the past Iranian calendar year.

Foroud Asgari, Deputy Head of IRICA for customs affairs, said that the imported goods comprises of 25 commodity groups.

Putting the value of the imported basic commodities at US$19.6 billion in the past year, the official said that the imports showed a 60% increase in terms of value and 32% growth in terms of weight, as compared to the Iranian calendar year 1399.

As Iran's only oceanic port on the Gulf of Oman, Chabahar port holds great significance for the country both politically and economically. The country has taken serious measures for developing this port in order to improve the country’s maritime trade.

In this regard, the Islamic Republic has been welcoming investors from all over the world to take part in the development of this port and benefit from its distinguished position as a trade hub in the region.

Chabahar port consists of Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti terminals, each of which has five berth facilities. The port is located in Iran’s Sistan-Balouchestan Province and is about 120 kilometers southwest of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, where the China-funded Gwadar port is situated.

In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan had signed a trilateral agreement for the strategically-located Chabahar to give New Delhi access to Kabul and Central Asia.

Based on an agreement with Iran, India is going to install and operate modern loading and unloading equipment including mobile harbor cranes in Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar.

Miftah the lesser you talk the better it will be for you and the incumbent government

The consensus is growing among the analysts that Miftah Ismail, Finance Minister of Pakistan talks a lot and often inconsistent and incoherent, which could make his life miserable with the passage of time. 

The other suggestion is that he should bid farewell to Imran Khan animosity and focus on putting the economy of the country back on track.

Allow me to refer to his statement regarding Dr. Reza Baqir, the outgoing Governor of State Bank of Pakistan. Ismail had indicated in a tweet that the government would not be providing an extension to Dr. Baqir. It may be called that he was often termed an appointee of the International Monetary Fund and follower of the IMF dictate.

However, on his departure he admitted, "I want to thank Reza for his service to Pakistan. He is an exceptionally qualified man and we worked well during our brief time together. I wish him the very best."

He misses no chance of maligning Imran Khan for agreeing with the IMF on conditions which had opened floodgate of inflation in Pakistan, the most notorious being the hike in the tariffs of electricity and gas and withdrawal of different types of subsidies.

It is a welcome sign that the IMF has extended the timeline of the current program and also promised to increase the amount by US$2 billion. However, the honourable minister hasn’t disclosed the conditions attached to this ‘favour’. The cat will soon come out of the bag when the IMF starts its review soon after Eid Holidays.

Even a person of ordinary wit knows very well that IMF bailout package will be attached with: hike in revenue, hike in electricity and gas tariffs and withdrawal of subsidies. It is also no wonder that Miftah hasn’t developed ‘homegrown’ plan and would be obliged to follow the IMF recipe.

I am not sure if the Minister is fully aware of massive smuggling of food items to the three neighboring countries, enjoying long and most porous borders with Pakistan. Food items are being fled to Afghanistan, Iran and India only because of the faulty Trade Policy being followed by Pakistan.

Ismail faces a daunting challenge of controlling mounting ‘circular debt’, which is nothing but rampant pilferage going on with the connivance of employees of the utility companies. Analysts say, with every hike in tariffs the incentive grows for pilfering electrify and gas.

Minister has to convince IMF that Pakistan suffers from cost pushed inflation and the hike in interest rate renders the exporters uncompetitive in the global markets. Exports just can’t be increased without exploiting Pakistan’s comparative advantage and making exports competitive in the global markets.

Last but not the least, Pakistan has to contain import of luxury and/or unnecessary goods to contain trade deficit. WTO Article 6 provides an option to Pakistan to impose quantitative restrictions on imports; the option must be exercised without further waste of time.

Welcome Dr. Murtaza Syed as Governor State Bank of Pakistan

With three-year term of Dr. Reza Baqir as Governor, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) coming to an end on May 04, 2022, Dr. Murtaza Syed, the senior most Deputy Governor takes over as Governor of the central bank.

Dr.  Syed an eminently qualified economist with rich experience of dealing with International Monetary Fund (IMF) will oversee the affairs of SBP and will be part of Pakistani team negotiating with the IMF, until the Government of Pakistan formally appoints new Governor of SBP.

According to the SBP, Dr. Syed has more than 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research and policy making and worked with the IMF for 16 years before resigning to join the State Bank of Pakistan. Dr. Syed has a PhD in economics from Nuffield College at the University of Oxford and has delivered lectures on public policy at Cambridge and Oxford Universities.

Earlier Finance Minister, Miftah Ismail had indicated in a tweet that the government would not be providing an extension to Dr, Reza Baqir.

"I want to thank Reza for his service to Pakistan. He is an exceptionally qualified man and we worked well during our brief time together. I wish him the very best," the minister had added.

Following Ismail's announcement, Dr. Baqir, in a series of tweets, thanked Allah and his fellow team members for giving him a chance to serve in the public office. "To other fellow Pakistanis, especially overseas, I encourage you to consider public service," he said.

The former governor also recalled the initiatives the SBP took during his tenure, such as Covid relief packages which included Rozgar payroll loans and hospital financing, Roshan Digital Account, Raast, a framework to licence digital banks in Pakistan, financial inclusion for women, affordable mortgages for lower-income groups and others.

"I want to especially thank Deputy Governors and SBP Corporate Management Team for your teamwork and support. I also want to thank the 4 Finance Ministers and 5 Finance Secretaries I worked with over my 3 years," he continued.

Dr. Baqir said that Pakistan faced several challenges but also possessed "great strengths" to counter them. "I am confident and hopeful that we as a country will make the right choices to overcome the challenges ahead of us," he added.

Meanwhile, the news of Dr. Baqir's term has termed as "loss for Pakistan" by politicians and analysts on Twitter.

Pakistan foreign policy always subservient to US mantra

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spyplane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

Prime Minister Shehbaz what have you done?

Looking at this advertisement published in a leading English newspaper of Pakistan has prompted me to communicate with my readers and or anyone who is worried about the fast deteriorating economic conditions of Pakistan.

I am ready to say without mincing my words that historically Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been more than gracious in extending support to Pakistan, the first Muslim country to attain the status of ‘Atomic Power’.  

At this juncture when the negotiations with the lender of last resort, International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been marred there was an urgent need for Pakistan to have enough foreign exchange reserves, be it earned or borrowed, to meet the targets agreed with the Fund.

Since commercial borrowing could prove fatal, the only option was to approach the ‘time tested friends’, who have reciprocated as usual. Therefore, it is not a ’well-done’ by the incumbent prime minister, but graciousness of the Monarchs.

It is true that Mian Sahib, has been put in a very difficult position by the coalition partners, they don’t want to take responsibility of ‘bad’ decisions but to attain political mileage in the upcoming elections.

It appears that some of Mian Sahib’s advisors, fearful of the repercussions of ‘bad’ decisions are suggesting to sweep the issues under the carpet, which can make the things even more complicated for him as well as Pakistan.

Mian Sahib has already committed ‘double fault’ by not increasing prices of energy products, despite recommendations by the Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA).

The harsh reality is that with each passing day, price of crude oil hovering at higher level and Rupee witnessing erosion in value the quantum of subsidy has already become unmanageable.

The sooner the incumbent government increases the tariffs of energy products, the better it will be for Pakistan. It may be a blessing that Pakistan’s friends are willing to supply oil/POL products at deferred payment, but the outstanding amount has to be settled in due course of time.

The other decisions which has offended overseas Pakistanis, remitting around US$2.5 billion per month, is ‘unwillingness’ of the incumbent government to allow them to cast their votes in the general elections of Pakistan.

According to informed sources, overseas Pakistanis have threatened to withdraw amounts kept in Roshan Digital Accounts, if they are not allowed to cast their vote in forthcoming general election.

To conclude, there is a friendly advice to the incumbent government that it must address the grievances of overseas Pakistanis without any further delay. While the IMF has indicated to give Pakistan US$2 billion over the next two years, overseas Pakistanis are sending more than this amount every month.

Iran Oil Show 2022 to kick off on May 13

The 26th International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition of Iran (Iran Oil Show 2022) is scheduled to kick off on May 13 at Tehran Permanent International Fairgrounds, Shana reported.

As reported, all Covid-19 related permits have been obtained from the National Headquarters to Combat Coronavirus Pandemic and the four-day exhibit will be held in full compliance with health protocols and standards.

Iran Oil Show is among the most significant oil and gas events in the world in terms of the number of participants and its diversity.

The event covers a variety of oil industry areas, including upstream industries, universities and science centers, start-ups, and science and technology parks, petrochemicals and related industries, gas and related industries, pipes and tubes, valves, refining and distribution and related industries, rotary machines, as well as products exporters, and etc.

 

 

China increases oil import from Iran

According to the Wall Street Journal major oil buyers including China are cutting back imports from Russia due to the war with Ukraine, this is effectively increasing Iranian export of oil.

Reportedly, Iranian oil exports increased by 30% during  the first quarter of 2022 as compared to the same period in the previous year, to 870,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The jump in Iran’s oil exports in Q1 was the fastest among all producers in West Asia, while the volume of exports is estimated to be the highest since former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018, the report said.

China is a major buyer of Iranian crude oil which has never stopped buying Iranian oil even during the sanctions. Now, the Asian country is emboldened to import more oil from Iran, not expecting to be hit by US sanctions “because Washington has its plate full with Russia,” an analyst told the Journal.

Earlier this month, Washington Free Beacon, an American conservative political journalism website, said in a report that Iran's fleet of ghost ships has been successfully sidestepping US sanctions, delivering millions of barrels of crude oil and petroleum products to foreign destinations.

The report claimed that Iranian oil tankers have shipped at least US$22 billion worth of oil only to China since 2021.

According to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country's oil exports have increased by 40% in recent months.

Iran’s crude oil production in March reached 2.546 million bpd to register a 7,000-barrel increase as compared to the figure for February, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report.

The country produced 2.539 million bpd of crude oil in February, the report said citing secondary sources.

The Islamic Republic’s average crude output for the first quarter of 2022 stood at 2.528 million bpd indicating a 56,000-bpd increase compared to the figure for the fourth quarter of the previous year, the report indicated.

The country’s heavy crude oil price also increased by US$19.36 in March, a 20.8% rise as compared to the previous month, according to the OPEC report.

 

United States urged to restore Iran nuclear deal

More than 40 former government officials and leading nuclear non-proliferation experts have expressed strong support for an agreement that returns Iran and the United States to comply with the 2015 nuclear deal.

The accord between Iran and the major world powers, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council through Resolution 2231.

The major world powers are P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany) together with the European Union.

The joint statement points out that if President of United States, Joe Biden fails to bring negotiations with Iran to a prompt and successful conclusion it would perpetuate the failed strategy pursued by the Trump administration and allow Iran to further improve its capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear material. The result, the nuclear nonproliferation experts write, “would increase the danger that Iran would become a threshold nuclear-weapon state”.

Signatories of the letter include a former special representative to the president of the United States on non-proliferation, former US State Department officials, the United States’ former Ambassador to Israel, Russia, and the United Nations, and leading nuclear non-proliferation experts based in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

“A prompt return to mutual compliance with the JCPOA is the best available way to deny Iran the ability to quickly produce bomb-grade nuclear material,” the experts’ letters notes.

“It would reinstate full IAEA international monitoring and verification of Iran’s nuclear facilities, thus ensuring early warning if Iran were to try to acquire nuclear weapons—and possibly become the second state in the Middle East (in addition to Israel) with such an arsenal.”

Despite Iran’s compliance with the accord, former US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in May 2018, reimposed sanctions that had been waived as part of the agreement and embarked on a pressure campaign designed to deny Tehran any benefit of remaining in compliance with the nuclear deal.

Iran continued to meet its JCPOA obligations until May 2019, when Tehran began a series of calibrated violations of the agreement designed to pressure the remaining JCPOA parties to meet their commitments and push the United States to return to the agreement. These violations, while largely reversible, have increased the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.

“As a result of Trump administration policies,” the experts’ statement says, “it is now estimated that the time it would take Iran to produce a significant quantity (25 kg) of bomb-grade uranium (enriched to 90 percent U-235) is down from more than a year under the JCPOA, to approximately one or two weeks today.”

“Restoring the limits on Iran’s nuclear program will significantly increase (by many months) the time it would take Iran to produce a significant quantity of bomb grade material, which provides the margin necessary for the international community to take effective action if Iran were to try to do so,” the experts say.

“Just as importantly,” the experts write, “the JCPOA mandates unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, verification, and transparency measures that make it very likely that any possible future effort by Iran to pursue nuclear weapons, even a clandestine program, would be detected promptly.”

Failure to bring Iran back under the limits established by the JCPOA would produce long-term adverse effects on the global non-proliferation regime, put US allies at greater risk, and create a new nuclear crisis, experts say.

Courtesy: International Press Syndicate

 

Israel after 74 years of independence

Jews all over the world celebrate Israel’s Independence Day – even those who have no intention of ever going to aliyah, and many of whom have never even visited Israel.

They term Israel a kind of insurance policy. They support Israel financially and emotionally. They consider Israel a sanctuary that is available to their children and grandchildren, should the need ever arise.

However, some find this kind of thinking very sad, because Israel is so much more than a refuge for persecuted Jews.

Not every immigrant who has built a life in Israel was escaping from the horror of the Holocaust, the tyranny behind the Iron Curtain or the cruelty of life in an Arab country.

Many of these Israelis referred to as “Anglo-Saxim” lowered their standard of living significantly when they settled in Israel, yet found something that enhanced the quality of life even as they struggled with inflation, mortgages and trying to make minuscule salaries stretch to the end of the month.

They have found a family – their own people. Of course, just like any family, they fight... about religion, politics and settlements – the fights can be very bitter. Yet they care about each other and band together when they face a common enemy. They celebrate together and sometimes even have to grieve together.

Basically, when the going gets rough, they are on the same side. They express their identity as Jews in different ways, but it is the same identity.

They found Israel a beautiful country, unique in the variety of its scenery and climate. Mediterranean beaches banded by azure and indigo water and pure white sand; coral reefs; dense forests; wooded mountains; deserts and rivers and waterfalls; the shimmering mirrored glass of the Dead Sea; fields carpeted with wildflowers – and Jerusalem, the priceless jewel.

Some of them found Israel a spirituality that they had never been able to achieve abroad. Anyone who has been in Israel on Yom Kippur, when the whole country comes to a standstill for one day, cannot doubt the kedusha, the holiness, of the Land of Israel. It is intangible, yet it is an undeniable presence.

They take pride in the remarkable achievements of this tiny country. They can match, and surpass, the hi-tech of much bigger, richer and better developed nations. They teach agriculture to the world. They are rich in poets, writers, musicians, actors and artists. They can boast of industrial entrepreneurs and brilliant scientists. When any new Israeli invention captures the world’s imagination, somehow they all bask in the reflected glory.

Israelis have always been compared to the Sabra – the cactus with the thorny exterior but the soft heart. They celebrate Independence Day in many ways – campfires and singing, picnics, Bible Quiz, concerts, music and dancing in the streets. They spend the day with family and friends and relish every moment of it.

But it is more than just enjoyment. On every building, the Israeli flag flies. Almost every balcony in every city flies the white flag with the blue Magen David, the Shield of David. And for days beforehand and a week afterward, the flag flies from every car on the road. Every ceremony opens with the singing of “Hatikvah” – the Hope – Israel’s national anthem.

They sing it standing straight and proud, and usually with tears in their eyes as they remember the broken people who found a safe haven in Israel, and those who never managed to reach its shores and died with the dream of Zion in their hearts. And they also remember the brave men and women who gave their lives in all of Israel’s wars, and in the pre-state days, the fighters and pioneers who fashioned this wonderful land that they have inherited.

 

European countries agree on mechanism to pay for Russian gas in roubles

European energy firms can open special accounts with Gazprombank to pay for Russian gas, a key demand by Moscow, without breaching sanctions if transferring euros or dollars to them fulfils their contractual obligations, the German Economy Ministry said.

Russia cut gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland this week for failing to pay in roubles, raising fears that other countries could be next.

Moscow's decree says Gazprombank would open special "K" type accounts for gas payments from foreign buyers. An EU company would transfer foreign currency into one such account, and then a Russian bank would convert the payment to roubles and transfer the roubles to another "K" account belonging to Gazprom.

European Union countries remain divided over whether sanctions would be broken if they engage with Russia's roubles payment demand.

Russia's decree said the buyer's obligation would be considered fulfilled only when the roubles arrived in Gazprom's account.

"There are European guidelines on payment modalities, which form the framework for us and which we adhere to," a spokesperson for Germany's Economy Ministry said on Friday in an e-mailed statement.

"According to these guidelines, account K, to which payment is made in euros/dollars, is in line with the sanctions if companies declare that contracts have been fulfilled with payment in euros or dollars."

A government source said that it was irrelevant in which country the K account is opened as long as the bank in question was not on any sanctions list.

The European Commission will provide EU countries with extra guidance on whether they can keep paying for Russian gas without breaching the bloc's sanctions, a Commission official told Reuters on Friday.

Companies and countries were at odds over Moscow's rouble-for-gas payment system on Friday, while European officials promised more guidance on whether buying Russian gas can comply with sanctions and Russia said it saw no problem with its plan.

It did not specify whether companies could do this and also open a rouble account, as requested by Russia, without being in breach of EU sanctions. 

Denmark's Orsted said it has no intention of opening a rouble account in Russia, although it declined to comment on payment in other currencies. Italy's ENI also said it had not opened an account in roubles.

Under Russia's mechanism, buyers are obliged to deposit euros or dollars into an account at privately-owned Russian bank Gazprombank, which has then to convert them into roubles, place the proceeds in another account owned by the foreign buyer and transfer the payment in Russian currency to Gazprom.

EU energy ministers will on Monday hold an emergency meeting to discuss their response to Russia's demand.

The European Commission, the EU executive, has already said countries may be able to make sanctions-compliant payments provided they declare their payments are completed once it has been made in euros and before it is converted into roubles.

EU countries, however, have said they want more clarity, while Germany, the bloc's biggest economy and among the most dependent on Russian gas, says it cannot afford to stop buying Russian supplies, even though it is taking steps to find alternative sources of energy.

A European Commission official told Reuters on Friday the executive will provide EU countries with extra guidance following complaints from some countries that ambiguity would leave different countries reaching different interpretations of what they were allowed to do.

Russia on Friday said it saw no problem with its proposed system.

"If the established procedure for interaction between gas buyers and the authorized bank is observed by the buyer, and there are no problems for the authorized bank in terms of selling currency on the stock exchange due to restrictive measures on the part of foreign states, then there cannot be any obstacles to paying for and receiving natural gas," Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

The rouble has to an extent benefited from Moscow's demand for roubles payment. The currency hit its highest level versus the euro in more than two years on Friday supported by capital controls as the central bank cut interest rates for the second time this month.

European gas prices have hit record levels since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Europe's top gas supplier, and were up slightly on Friday.

Central to the confusion on the part of the European buyers is whether Russia would only consider the payment to be complete after the gas-to-roubles conversion is done - a transaction that would involve Russia's central bank, which is subject to EU sanctions.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an EU diplomat admitted a certain amount of ambiguity could be helpful as the bloc seeks to prevent any widening of divisions between countries, which have different levels of reliance on Russia and different deadlines to make payments.

"In the circumstances, a little bit of messiness might just be preferable," the diplomat said.

Poland and Bulgaria have contracts with Gazprom due to expire at the end of this year, which meant their search for alternative supplies was already advanced. Poland also has very healthy gas stocks around 77% full.

Austria’s OMV, which has a contract with Gazprom until 2040, said it was analyzing how a change could be implemented for it to pay in roubles without breaching sanctions when next payment is due in May.

United States has 40 military sites in Germany

This morning I was dismayed to read the news that the United States is training Ukrainian troops in Germany. I immediately clicked WIKIPEDIA to find some details. The bigger surprise was the United States has 40 military installations in Germany. Over the years more than 220 installations have been closed, mostly following the end of the Cold War in the 1990s.

The rationale behind the large number of closures is that the strategic functions of the bases, designed to serve as forward posts in any war against the USSR, are no longer relevant since the end of the Cold War era.

WIKIPEDIA has a list of United States military locations in Germany, both closed and still existing. To preserve originality, place names follow US Forces nomenclature as far as is reasonable. As the amount of data grew, it became necessary to list each garrison on two separate pages: List of American Military Sites in Southern Germany, List of American Military Sites in Northern Germany.

The associations were subordinate to the following supreme commands:

The US armed forces were initially organized as USFET (United States Forces European Theater) from August 01, 1945 to February 28, 1946 in Berlin and Frankfurt am Main, IG Farben Building. 

On March 15, 1947 they were reassigned to EUCOM (European Command) in Frankfurt, 1948 moved from Frankfurt to Heidelberg, Campbell Barracks. On January 01, 1950 reorganized as USAREUR (United States Army Europe). USAREUR was subordinate to USEUCOM (United States European Command), since 1967 in Stuttgart-Vaihingen, Patch Barracks.

The US Air Force was reorganized on August 16, 1945 from USSAF (US Strategic Air Forces) to USAFE (US Air Forces, Europe) in Wiesbaden, Lindsey Air Station, while still part of the US Army. 

Subordination to EUCOM was lifted in 1950 and1972 Transfer to Ramstein Air Base. 

USAFE was subordinate to USEUCOM (United States European Command), since 1967 in Stuttgart-Vaihingen, Patch Barracks.

The US nuclear weapons on German soil formed the backbone of the North Atlantic Alliance. They were the crucial military element of the Cold War.

The ability to use the nuclear arsenal and the will to ultimately use these weapons, conveyed to the opponent in a credible manner, formed the core element in the global bipolar conflict.

The 59th Ordnance Brigade in Pirmasens was responsible for the nuclear operational capability of the USA. Nuclear custody according to the principle of the two keys was the responsibility of the United States Army Field Artillery Detachments (USAFAD) - in the Nike associations United States Army Artillery Detachments (USAAD), which were subordinate to the United States Army Artillery Groups (USAAG) at corps level.

The detachments were with all nuclear-capable NATO allies on German soil from 1958 (Germany, Great Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Canada (until 1984) and also France until 1966 stationed.

The "Regency Net" system with the control center in Pirmasens was set up from 1976 to 1982 as the command and control network. 

In an emergency, Regency Net would have served to transmit "Emergency Action Messages" from CINCEUR (also SACEUR in personal union) for the release of nuclear weapons for the national partners. 

For the Air Force there was a similar organization with Munitions Support Squadrons (MUNSS) and a Munitions Maintenance Group in Ramstein.