Biden administration considers West Bank occupied territory, says Ned Price

Biden administration clarified that it considers the West Bank to be occupied territory, but ducked a question as to whether it held that settlements were illegal. "It is a historical fact that Israel occupied the West Bank, Gaza, and the Golan Heights in the 1967 War," US State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters in Washington on Wednesday.

The issue was raised after the Biden administration published on Tuesday the 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices. It is the first of the annual reports released since US President Joe Biden took office in January 2021. The report affirmed steps taken by the previous Trump administration, which had both recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

It also kept in place a description change made to the report by former US president Donald Trump, in which he replaced the phrase "Israel and the occupied Palestinian Territories" with "Israel, West Bank and Gaza."

But within the report, the Biden administration reintroduced the word "occupied" to describe Israel's seizure of territory during the 1967 Six Day War. 

When questioned by a reporter as to whether the US considered that Israel occupied the West Bank, Price affirmed that it did.

"In fact, the 2020 Human Rights Report does use the term 'occupation' in the context of the current status of the West Bank," Price said. "This has been the longstanding position of previous administrations of both parties over the course of many decades."

Israel has long argued that the West Bank does not meet the standard of occupied territory, because it captured the area from Jordan, whose sovereignty there from 1948-1967 was not recognized legally and which itself was considered to be occupying it.

Prior to the 1948 War of Independence, the territory was held by Great Britain; prior World War I, it was part of the Ottoman Empire.

The Trump administration believed that Israel had historic and religious rights to portions of that territory and did not refer to it as occupied. Its top officials agreed with the Israeli Right, that the proper term was Judea and Samaria and not the West Bank, terminology linked to the time when the territory was under Jordanian rule.

Trump also changed US policy toward Israeli West Bank settlements. It rejected a 1978 memo by then US State Department legal advisor Herbert J. Hansell declaring that the settlements were illegal, declaring instead that they were not inconsistent with Israeli law.

The United Nations holds that Israel's settlements are illegal and that the West Bank is occupied Palestinian territory.

The Biden administration has yet to clarify its stance on the settlements, even though it is presumed to support a two-state solution at the pre-1967 lines.

At Wednesday's press conference, a reporter asked Price, "Does the US consider, for example, Israeli settlements in the occupied territories to be illegal as a result of this stance?"

Price responded that the US position had not changed, but he clarified that stance in his own way.

"We – as you have heard me say before – we continue to encourage all sides to avoid actions – both sides, I should say – to avoid actions that would put the two-state solution further out of reach. 

"Again, our ultimate goal here is to facilitate – to help bring about – a two-state solution because it is the best path to preserve Israel’s identity as a Jewish and democratic state while bestowing on the Palestinians their legitimate aspirations of sovereignty and dignity in a state of their own," he said.

These lines are often his and other Biden official's standard response to many questions about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Pakistan Stock Exchange remains under pressure during March 2021

Weak market sentiments at the end of result season were further dampened by political ambiguities (senate elections, changes in cabinet). As a result, benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed March 2021 on a negative note, down 2.8%MoM to close at 44,588 points.

Even improving external account position (rupee appreciation, IMF disbursement of US$500 million, successful issuance of Eurobond) failed to lift the sentiments. Average volume declined to 598.3 million shares as compared to previous two-month average of 772.4 million shares and 8MFY21 average of 624.4 million shares. Average traded value was in line with previous two-month average of Rs36 billion, signaling shift to top tier stocks.

Amongst major sectors, OMCs and Chemicals were the leaders with a gain of 2.8%MoM and 2.4%MoM respectively. Performance of OMCs was linked to margin expansion (EPCL margins up 36.7%CYTD whereas that of LOTCHEM was up 54.2%CYTD). Textile composites experienced the heaviest decline, down 11.2%MoM. All-Sector chart was topped by Glass & Ceramics with a gain of 22.5%MoM followed by Leather & Tanneries +17.8%MoM, while Cable & Electrical goods were the laggards, down 11.5%MoM.

Flow wise foreigners remained net seller with net disposal of US$8.47 million in March 2021, taking CYTD net to US$16.5 million. However, selective foreign buying was witnessed in the latter part of the month in the wake of rupee appreciation. Mutual Funds and Companies also emerged net seller with US$16.9 million and US$10.7 million respectively which was absorbed mainly by Insurance and Individuals with net buy of US$15.8 million and US$11.1 million respectively. Excluding last day’s net buy of US$7.41 million, individual’s net buy during the month under review was reported at US$3.7 million as compared to 12-month net buy of US$26 million indicating anchoring role of individual participants to have subdued in the recent month.

With political frenzy in the background, attention in April 2021 is likely to be centered on four key inputs: 1) corporate earnings, 2) economic data points, 3) interest rates, and 4) budgetary measures in the near term. Earnings are likely to continue their strong run for the quarter ended on 31st March 2021, following rupee appreciation (up 4.3%QoQ), and raw material inventory built up by manufacturing players (evident from Rs189 billion increase in working capital loans in last quarter of CY20) countering pressure from bull-cycle in global commodities (+11.0%QoQ) on 1QCY21 input costs.

On the flip side, increasing inflationary pressures could boost expectation of interest rate hikes snowballed by potentially tough budgetary measures where Government of Pakistan has already agreed Rs6 trillion FBR target with IMF for FY22 as against Rs4.7 trillion for FY21, which could keep market range-bound in the coming months.

That said, Pakistan’s long term growth story remains intact with additional support coming from robust external account position and improving prospects of trade with India. Analysts continue to like Cements, Steel and other Construction and allied sectors. Their top picks include LUCK, MLCF, DGKC, and MUGHAL. They also like Chemicals (on margin expansion) and Autos (rupee appreciation and strong demand).

Cold war is still going on, though of another type

According to many analysts, 20th century ended with a unipolar world. The United States developed the complacency it had eliminated its enemies, but the start of the 21st century proved it wrong and the cold war is still going on.

The fight against communism might be over, but the communist countries from the east began to respond to the US, in their own way. Two leaders from the east, Putin and Xi Jinping are constantly challenging the US hegemony through proxies, trade and diplomacy.

Although, the main US enemy during the cold war was Russia, one more was added to the list in the new cold war, China. The dawn of the 21st century brought rising China.

Its military might and economic progress posed a threat to US dominance. China began to capture the world through trade and investment. It caused the US, to take some unconventional steps against China. The US imposed economic sanctions on China and China responded accordingly. Hence, the trade war started.

The US also shifted its Asia Pacific policy to Indo-Pacific. The initiative New Silk Road, the establishment of Quad, more military presence in the South China Sea, military assistance to Taiwan, and support for Hong Kong are some manifestations of the new cold war.

Rising Russia

Putin strengthened the disintegrated Russia, which gave birth to the new phase of the cold war, and also made Russia stronger to give a befitting response to the US at every front.

Putin with political acumen and strong nerves has brought Russia to the level to compete with the US at the international chessboard more firmly and robustly.

In 2015, Russia launched airstrikes in Syria to back Bashar Al-Assad, the US was too keen to topple. Failed Trump had to announce the withdrawal of troops from Syria. Subsequently, Russia won Asad, the ruler of an important country in the Middle East.

Furthermore, Russia’s meddling in the US 2016 elections which boosted Trump candidacy, proved Putin a great strategist. Trump’s policies ‑ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, cancellation of Iran nuclear deal, Mexico border wall, a travel ban on some Muslim countries, recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel etc. brought criticism to the US.

By bringing Trump into power, Russia succeeded in minimizing its enemy’s role in international politics and tarnishing its image at an international forum.

Russia and China also enjoy good relations with Iran. Both Russia and Iran are also major allies in Syria, a country that was once America’s ally. Closer to home, Russia is also trying to play its card in the Afghanistan conflict.

The US had to invite Russia to arrange the Moscow conference, which was arranged on 20th March, to bring peace to Afghanistan. After fighting the longest war, the US is defeated and facing humiliation, because of Russia’s support to Taliban. Now Russia would surely win an important stake in Afghanistan’s political leadership.

Falling United States

Moreover, Turkey has also gone from the US hands. The US sanctions over Turkey against buying the S-400 missiles system from Russia have brought the relations between former allies to a historic low.

Turkey, under Erdogan, chose to preserve its sovereignty by pursuing an independent policy. Hence, the country, which once allowed the US to deploy nuclear weapons against USSR now has warm relations with Russia and is no more on Uncle Sam’s payroll.

In Latin America waves of the cold war were also seen following the Venezuela crisis. The US has thrown its support behind Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido and declared him the interim president while Russia sent two military planes carrying about 100 Russian personnel arrived in Caracas in the support of President Maduro.

The US officials have told CBS News that the influx was unusual for its size, has fuelled tensions between Russia and the United States as China was also supporting Maduro. Hence, the 21st century has ignited the cold war between Russia and United with new a new vigor.

It was thought that Biden, the seasoned politician, who was known for his support to democratic values, would not put through the world into an abyss of another cold war, but his first foreign policy speech proved it wrong.

China building iron ore hub in Africa

It seems Chinese state planners have realized their glaring vulnerability, high dependence on iron ore from Australia. Perhaps that is why China is looking at an impoverished but mineral rich country in West Africa, Guinea, as the potential partner that would free it from the dependence on Australia, which has turned a foe after joining Quad.

Guinea sits atop the world's largest reserve of untapped high-quality iron ore. Surely it is no coincidence, then, that on 4th March 2021, the first batch of China-donated COVID-19 vaccines arrived in Guinea, one of the first nations to receive the Chinese gift. 

The change in Chinese strategy can be best understood by reading two briefs. The stock market turmoil linked to US investment firm Archegos Capital Management appears to have hit Japan's biggest financial player, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Its security unit said it faces a potential loss estimated at $300 million at a European unit.

In worrying news for Apple, its partner and top iPhone assembler Foxconn said that the global chip shortage will cut its shipments by 10% a rare acknowledgment that shows some of the world's biggest consumer names might face headwinds from the supply crunch rocking the tech industry.

Further clarity can be obtained by a quick review of rise and fall of Japan.
 
"No other nation at the present time is spending so large a part of its revenue on naval preparations," military author Hector Bywater wrote in the 1921 book "Sea-Power in the Pacific." But Japan had a critical weakness: lack of steel. Japan's ambition to become the dominant Pacific naval power was brought to a standstill when the US imposed a steel embargo in 1917.
  

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

It is not an appropriate time for Pakistan to issue US$ denominated Eurobonds

There are reports that Pakistan is getting ready to issue US$ denominated Eurobonds of more than US$2 billion over the next few days. The settlement date for the issue is likely to be 6th April 2021. However, some analysts are of the view that it is not an appropriate time to go for this adventure.

Initial indications suggest that 5-year bond’s bids to be between 6.0-6.5%, 10-year bond’s between 7.2-7.7%. Interestingly, Pakistan is also trying to sell Eurobonds having a tenor of 30 years at a yield of close to 8.5-9.0%.

They say, currently US$ exchange parity is on the slide and further erosion in value is anticipated as Ramadan gets closer. They anticipate an influx of more than US$2.5 billion over the next 30 days, which may push the parity below Rs148.

They go to the extent of saying that Pakistan should capitalize this opportunity, as no interest payment will be required. The want State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to work out a band, in which parity should be allowed to move. The central bank should start buying when parity goes below the threshold point or start selling which parity crosses upper limit.

They believe the central bank has ample supply of local currency in its coffer and in the worst scenario can print more. In this scenario the biggest collateral will of the added foreign exchange reserves.

Currently, Pakistan’s US$ denominated bond yields around 5.9% (having maturity in 2027) in the secondary market. The average yield over the last 3-months for the same is around 5.8%.

We believe this re-entry of Pakistan in international capital markets will support investors’ sentiments. Regardless of the yield, the size of these bonds will provide much needed support to Pakistan foreign exchange reserves that are currently adequate for 3 months of import only.

S&P and Moody’s presently rate Pakistan as B- with stable outlook and B3 with stable outlook.

Recently Egypt having S&P rating of B and Moody’s rating of B2 (one notch above Pakistan), raised US$3.75 billion. Egypt sold 5-year worth US$750 million at 3.875%, 10-year bonds worth at US$1.5 billion at 5.875% and 40-year bonds worth US$1.5 billion at 7.5%.

Pakistan Rupee (PKR) vis-à-vis US$ has climbed to a 22-month high, gaining around 3% during the last month and 9% from its bottom touched on 20th July 2020.

Pakistan floated its first bond in international market during 1994 and then in 1997.

The first bond was launched on Dec 22, 1994 at 11.5% with amount raised being US$150 million. This was followed by US$160 million and US$300 million bond in Feb-May, 1997 at 6% and Libor + 395bps, respectively.

Later due to international restriction after nuclear testing Pakistan was unable to tap international market. However, Pakistan reverted back to international market in 2004 as better macroeconomic indicators resulted in improved ratings.

In FY05, Pakistan issued 5-year Eurobond and raised US$500 million at rate of 6.75%.

In FY06, Pakistan issued US$600mn in 5-year Sukuk issuance at rental rate of 6M LIBOR plus 220bps.

In FY07, Pakistan issued total US$800 million by issuing two Eurobonds of worth US$500 million (7.125%, 10 year) and US$300 million (7.875%, 30 year) each.

After gap of 7 years, Pakistan mobilized US$2 billion in April 2014 by issuing 5 and 10 year bonds at 7.25% and 8.25%, respectively.

In November 2014, Pakistan issued Sukuk of US$1 billion (already matured in December 2019) at 6.75%.

In September 2015, Pakistan issued 5-year Eurobond of US$500 million at 8.25%. In Oct-2016, Pakistan issued 5 year Sukuk of US$1 billion at a lowest rate of 5.5%.

In last issue of November 2017, Pakistan raised US$2.5 billion by offering 5-year Sukuk of US$1 billion and 10-year Eurobond of US$1.5 billion at 5.625% and 6.875%, respectively. 

Bangladesh: A role model for developing countries

Poverty, hunger, natural disasters, famine, crumbling infrastructure, political turmoil, and coups in the first decade after the creation of Bangladesh did not paint a picture that would radiate hope. Today, as the country celebrates Golden Jubilee of Independence, Bangladesh has not only stood on its own feet, but has also become a role model for development.

In the beginning, Bangladesh was branded as a basket case. The naysayers believed that country would have to be fed by the international community as it was staring at failure with no mineral resources, high population growth, food shortage, and negligible exports.

The situation was so bad that in 1976, Just Faaland, resident representative of the World Bank in Bangladesh (1972-1974), and Prof Jack R Parkinson, senior economist to the World Bank Mission summed up Bangladesh’s trauma in the phrase “test case for development”. They argued, “If development could be made successful in Bangladesh, there can be little doubt that it could be made to succeed anywhere else.”

Bangladesh turnaround story is worth reading. The country brought down the population growth rate from over 3 percent to a little over one percent. The poverty rate had fallen to less than 20 percent before the pandemic from as high as 82 percent in the 1970s.

The country struggling to feed its 75 million people five decades ago is self-sufficient in food production even though the population has more than doubled.

Aid-dependence significantly declined from 14 percent of the GDP in the 70s to less than 1.5 percent now.

Life expectancy is 72 years, much higher than neighbouring Pakistan and India.

People can now send their children to schools and access primary health care.

With policy support of the government, Bangladesh has become a key supplier of readymade garments worldwide. Major brands of the world have their products made here. This industry alone brings in about US$34 billion a year and employs millions, women being the largest workforce in the industry.

Another key driver of the economy is manpower export. Around 10 million Bangladeshis are working abroad and earning foreign exchange for the country and bringing comfort to near and dear.

They send in around US$15 billion every year and that amount is ever increasing. This allowed Bangladesh to have a huge foreign currency reserve.

More than ten million people took shelter in India in 1971. Now Bangladesh, with its economic might, is able to open its doors to nearly a million Rohingyas escaping persecution in Myanmar.

Bangladesh has met all three conditions for graduating from the grouping of the least-developed countries twice. The United Nations Committee for Development Policy has already recommended the country’s graduation in 2026.

Bangladesh’s economy was one of the few economies that posted positive growth in 2020 when growth went south for most because of the pandemic.

The secret of Bangladesh’s success was its education and girls, as American journalist and political commentator Nicholas Kristof put it. “Bangladesh invested in its most underutilized assets — its poor, with a focus on the most marginalized and least productive, because that’s where the highest returns would be.”

Ahsan Mansur, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh, said the central bank did not have a machine to print money after independence. The geopolitical situation was not in favour of Bangladesh as the new country was aligned with the left-leaning bloc.

Since the severe famine of 1974, Bangladesh has not faced any major food crisis, greatly aided by the green revolution that was sweeping across the world at the time. “This has been a major achievement,” he said.

A major paradigm shift was moving away from a nationalized economic policy stance perceived in the 1970s to a private-sector-led economy with liberalization, deregulation and denationalization in the 80s and 90s, according to Manzur Hossain, Research Director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS).

“Bangladesh has disproved all predictions and progressed at a good pace,” said AB Mirza Azizul Islam, a former bureaucrat and Finance Adviser of the government.

Muhammad Abdul Mazid, a former Chairman of the National Board of Revenue, said all governments took note of the importance of the agriculture sector to feed the growing population amid shrinking land. The sector gave the much-needed resilience to the economy.

“Our people are resilient and proactive in driving the economy forward. And they have been supported by appropriate policies,” said Prof Shamsul Alam, member of the General Economics Division under the Planning Commission.

Zaid Bakht, a former Research Director of the BIDS, credited public expenditure and investment for the surprising turnaround. “All countries do this, but ours was more focused and intense. Governments have given emphasis on rural infrastructural development. This has a tremendous impact on the economy.” There has been economic diversification. Cropping intensity has been increased. Non-farm activities have gone up, he added.

He said microcredit organizations and NGOs have worked in empowering women. Governments set up roads and bridges, kept the labour market flexible, gave mobility and education to women and girls, and made some improvements in the health sector. “All these created a virtuous cycle,” Bakht said.

Zahid Hussain, a former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka Office, gave credit to the steady economic growth, social policies aimed at population control, rural roads, education and electrification, primary education, female education, local low-cost health solutions for immunization and communicable diseases, access to finance through microcredit, last-mile service delivery by NGOs, and demographic dividend for the turnaround of the country.

The latest testimony to Bangladesh’s astounding achievement came when Nicholas Kristof advised US President Joe Biden to look to Bangladesh to find the answer to how to bring down the rate of poor children.

Courtesy: The Daily Star

Traffic in Suez Canal resumes after stranded ship refloated

Shipping traffic through Egypt’s Suez Canal resumed on Monday after a giant container ship which had been blocking the busy waterway for almost a week was refloated, the canal authority said. Live footage on a local television station showed the ship surrounded by tug boats moving slowly in the center of the canal. The station, ExtraNews, said the ship was moving at a speed of 1.5 knots.

The 400-metre (430-yard) long Ever Given became jammed diagonally across a southern section of the canal in high winds early last Tuesday, halting traffic on the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

 “Admiral Osama Rabie, the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), announces the resumption of maritime traffic in the Suez Canal after the Authority successfully rescues and floats the giant Panamanian container ship EVER GIVEN,” a statement from the SCA said.

“She’s free,” an official involved in the salvage operation said.

After dredging and excavation work over the weekend, rescue workers from the SCA and a team from Dutch firm Smit Salvage had succeeded in partially refloating the ship earlier on Monday using tug boats, two marine and shipping sources said.

Evergreen Line, which is leasing the Ever Given, confirmed the ship had been successfully refloated and said it would be repositioned and inspected for seaworthiness.

Ship stranded in Suez Canal re-floats

The stranded container ship blocking the Suez Canal for almost a week was re-floated on Monday and is currently being secured, Inchcape Shipping Services said, raising expectations the vital waterway will soon be reopened.

The ship was successfully re-floated at 4.30 am local time and was being secured at the moment, Inchcape, a global provider of marine services said on Twitter.

Ship-tracking service VesselFinder has changed the ship’s status to under way on its website.

The 400-metre (430-yard) long Ever Given was jammed diagonally across a southern section of the canal in high winds early on Tuesday, halting shipping traffic on the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia.

At least 369 vessels were waiting to transit the canal, including dozens of container ships, bulk carriers, oil tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vessels, SCA Chairman Osama Rabie told Egypt’s Extra News on Sunday.

Egypt’s Leth Agencies tweeted the ship had been partially refloated, pending official confirmation from the Suez Canal Authority.

The Suez Canal Authority had earlier said in a statement that tugging operations to free the ship had resumed. The Suez Canal salvage teams intensified excavation and dredging on Sunday and were hoping a high tide would help them dislodge it.

IMF Completes Combined Review of EFF for Pakistan

Reportedly, Executive Board of International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed combined second through fifth reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, allowing for an immediate release of US$500 million for budget support, taking total budgetary support under the arrangement to about US$2 billion.

Program performance has remained satisfactory notwithstanding the unprecedented challenges of the COVID-19 shock, and the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods.

Pakistani authorities have remained committed to ambitious policy actions and structural reforms to strengthen economic resilience, advance sustainable growth, and achieve economic reform program medium-term objectives.

Pakistan’s 39-month EFF arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on 3rd July 3, 2019 for about US$6 billion at the time of approval of the arrangement, or 210% of quota. The program aims to support Pakistan’s policies to help the economy and save lives and livelihoods amid the still unfolding COVID-19 pandemic, ensure macroeconomic and debt sustainability, and advance structural reforms to lay the foundations for strong, job-rich, and long-lasting growth that benefits all Pakistanis.

Following the Executive Board discussion on Pakistan, Ms. Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

The Pakistani authorities have continued to make satisfactory progress under the Fund-supported program, which has been an important policy anchor during an unprecedented period. While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges, the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. The authorities have also continued to advance their reform agenda in key areas, including on consolidating central bank autonomy, reforming corporate taxation, bolstering management of state-owned enterprises, and improving cost recovery and regulation in the power sector.

Reflecting the challenges from the unfolding pandemic and the authorities’ commitment to the medium-term objectives under the EFF, the policy mix has been recalibrated to strike an appropriate balance between supporting the economy, ensuring debt sustainability, and advancing structural reforms while maintaining social cohesion. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation remain crucial in light of unusually high uncertainty and risks.

Fiscal performance in the first half of FY21 was prudent, providing targeted support and maintaining stability. Going forward, further sustained efforts, including broadening the revenue base carefully managing spending and securing provincial contributions will help achieve a lasting improvement in public finances and place debt on a downward path. Reaching the FY22 fiscal targets rests on the reform of both general sales and personal income taxation. Protecting social spending and boosting social safety nets remain vital to mitigate social costs and garner broad support for reform.

The current monetary stance is appropriate and supports the nascent recovery. Entrenching stable and low inflation requires a data-driven approach for future policy rate actions, further supported by strengthening of the State Bank of Pakistan’s autonomy and governance. The market-determined exchange rate remains essential to absorb external shocks and rebuild reserve buffers.

Recent measures have helped contain the accumulation of new arrears in the energy sector. Vigorously following through with the updated IFI-supported circular debt management plan and enactment of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority Act amendments would help restore financial viability through management improvements, cost reductions, regular tariff adjustments, and better targeting of subsidies.

Despite recent improvements, further efforts to remove structural impediments will strengthen economic productivity, confidence, and private sector investment. These include measures to: 1) bolster the governance, transparency, and efficiency of the vast SOE sector; 2) boost the business environment and job creation; and 3) foster governance and strengthen the effectiveness of anti-corruption institutions. Also, completing the much-advanced action plan on AML/CFT is essential.

Can Pakistan and Bangladesh be Friends ever?

On 14th August 2020, Pakistan’s Independence Day, the country’s high commissioner in Dhaka, Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, lauded the role that Bengalis played in the creation of Pakistan in 1947. 

That was preceded by Pakistani foreign office spokesperson Aisha Farooqui saying that Islamabad was now actively working on mending relations with Dhaka. Before that, the two premiers, Imran Khan and Sheikh Hasina, held on 22nd July 2020 telephone conversation.

The year 2020 provided a rare opportunity to Islamabad and Dhaka to talk about their own fractured past. This was noticed by New Delhi with concern. Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla rushed to meet Hasina and Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen.

Pakistan’s recent advances toward Bangladesh have overlapped with growing disputes between New Delhi and Dhaka, largely centering around the growing anti-Muslim tilt of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India. In the recent past, differences over the Rohingya refugee crisis, the Citizenship Amendment Act, and the construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodha have sparked a diverse array of skepticism from Dhaka.

China and Turkey are backing Islamabad’s Kashmir narrative, much of Pakistan’s recent diplomatic engagement with Bangladesh has been with regard to this fast-growing alliance. With China more interested in Kashmir because of its growing rivalry with India, and its bid to involve itself in conflicts as the global superpower, Dhaka’s interest in being a part of the China-Pakistan-Turkey nexus could also be piqued by Beijing’s investments in Bangladesh.

Under the Turkey-led Muslim bloc, both Pakistan and Bangladesh can get more prominence as compared to what they have under the Gulf states, who have not only failed to provide support for Kashmir, but have actively enhanced their defense and energy cooperation with India, and even Israel.

The UAE-Israel deal epitomizes the rapid splintering into a new cold war reality, with the Gulf states firmly in the US-Saudi camp. This opened the possibility for South Asian Muslim countries to back the potential China-Turkey bloc. Pakistan’s efforts to persuade Bangladesh, backed by China and Turkey, are rooted in global, and regional, realignments more so than any bilateral efforts to reconcile with a tumultuous past.

While Pakistan and Bangladesh might find common interests in coexisting in the same bloc, for the two to actually become friends requires an honest discussion on what transpired in 1971 – and the events leading up to it.

Where China and Turkey might be providing the opportunity for Pakistan to sit with Bangladesh again, it must do so with sincerity and self-reflection. That will not only help Islamabad formulate progressive bilateral ties, it might also ring a timely reminder to undo many of the same errors of the past.

Can sustainable peace be established between India and Pakistan?

It appears that efforts are being made to reduce hostility between Pakistan and India, the two atomic powers of South Asia. However, most of the actions are taking place behind the scene, though scanty details are being shared with public.

The Pakistan Day message received by Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan from his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi has made headlines, but it hardly reflects any tangible goodwill gesture.

After years of hostility cordiality will be difficult to achieve. Yet the first, careful steps have been taken, and if things proceed without any glitch tangible progress in the peace process can be achieved.

The first sign that things were changing for the better came in the shape of the LoC ceasefire announced last month by the two countries. It was followed up by statements from Khan and the army chief calling for better relations with India.

Pakistani experts were also in India earlier this week after a long gap to discuss the sharing of Indus waters. Relations had of course hit rock bottom after India unilaterally annulled held Kashmir’s special status in its constitution in 2019.

One can hear the eco that a Gulf state that enjoys good relations with both sides is playing the role of peacemaker. Biden administration is also sending certain signals to Islamabad and New Delhi. This suggests that the two atomic powers are being pressurized to ease the situation.

It has been witnessed several times in the past; both countries were tantalizingly close to making peace, only for the process to be abandoned due to spoilers, this time things may not be different.

It is believed that with seriousness of purpose, everything standing in the way of peace — including Kashmir — can be resolved. The history spread over more than 70 decades, proves this is only a wishful thinking.

My lines could be best understood when one reads what Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has said. He said pointblank that lasting peace in the sub-continent will remain elusive until the resolution of the Kashmir issue. He also stressed that it was time for India and Pakistan to "bury the past and move forward".

Let me say that both the countries have remained hostage to the disputes and issues. The Kashmir issue is obviously at the heart of this. It is important to understand that without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, process of rapprochement will remain susceptible to derailment.

Chinese Foreign Minister in Iran for strategic talks

Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi arrived in Tehran on Friday for talks with senior Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said assessing ways to strengthen strategic partnership and sharing views about regional and international issues will feature high in the talks.

The Ministry also said the two-day visit of Wang is a “step toward strengthening comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.”

Prospects of long-term cooperation and the ways to implement comprehensive strategic partnership will be the main topic of talks between Zarif and Wang, the ministry added.

Concurrent with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relationship between Tehran and Beijing, the two chief diplomats will also inaugurate an exhibition on historical documents about cooperation between the two countries on Saturday.

The two foreign ministers also plan to sign a comprehensive cooperation document between Islamic Republic of Iran and People’s Republic of China.

Wang is the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to pay an official visit to Iran since Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit in 2016, Hua Liming, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, told the Global Times on Friday. 

Hua also called Iran a key country on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and one of the major oil exporters to China.

The nuclear issue will also be a key topic during the visit, according to Hua.

"The withdrawal of the Trump administration from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a big blow to Iran's economy. In fact, Iran wants the United States to return to the deal, and China can coordinate with it," the former ambassador said.

The visit Chinese Foreign Minister has been scheduled days after top diplomats from China and the United States agreed at high-level talks in Alaska that Iran was one of the issues on which they could work together, despite their many differences, including on human rights in Xinjiang.

Security and stability in West Asia

In an interview with Al Arabiya on Wednesday, Wang proposed five initiatives to achieve security and stability in West Asia, noting that getting rid of geopolitical competition among great powers is the fundamental way to end the chaos. 

As for the Iran nuclear issue, Wang pointed out that the US should take concrete measures to ease unilateral sanctions against Iran and its ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ over third parties, while Iran should resume fulfilling its nuclear commitments.

At the same time, Wang said, the international community should support the efforts of regional countries to establish a West Asia zone free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

All parties should discuss and formulate a route and timetable for the resumption of implementation of the JCPOA in accordance with the merits of the development of the Iran nuclear issue, Wang said, according to the Global Times. 

China and Russia say US should return to JCPOA unconditionally

In the meeting between Wang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday, the two senior diplomats said the United States should unconditionally return to the JCPOA as soon as possible and revoke the unilateral sanctions imposed against Iran. 

Only China can act as a ‘peace-broker’ in the Iran nuclear issue, said Li Haidong, a professor of international relations at China Foreign Affairs University, "especially after China has exchanged ideas with the US in Alaska, then with Russia and then with Iran… and no other major international issue can be separated from China's participation and coordination."

Foreign Minister Wang started his tour of West Asia on Wednesday. He first visited Saudi Arabia and then Turkey. After concluding visit to Iran, he will fly to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and make a working visit to Oman.

South China Morning Post said the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and alliances will be high on agenda of Wang’s visit to West Asia.

No one seems serious in floating ship stuck in Suez Canal

Having lived and worked for nearly seventy years in a third world country, I often tend to buy conspiracy theories. I have been following Evergreen story since Tuesday, now I am beginning to arrive at two conclusions: 1) grounding of the ship was not an accident and 2) all the efforts are being made to prolong blockade of Suez Canal. You may laugh at my insanity, but please give me a patient reading.

To begin with, I am still unable to swallow the bitter pill that the ship of this size and weight has grounded because of bad weather and dust storm.  This could have never happened unless the ship was moving without escorting tug boats.

The time already taken shows that there is no urgency, some giant oil companies and tycoons of the shipping industry are adamant at prolonging the blockade. It may also be doubted that some ruthless elements are also bent upon punishing Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and even Japan.

“Time is the deciding factor here. The ship itself is undamaged, but there is massive consequential damage from the blockade,” said Peter Berdowski, chief executive of Boskalis.

As stated earlier, there is deliberate effort not to rescue the ship. The first and most effort should have been to lessen the load of the ship, removing the containers and all the less imported baggage.

Officials involved in the operation say, the most obvious first step will be to remove large fuel and ballast to lighten the vessel, in combination with dredging away sand and to then attempt to pull it afloat.

It is also said that if those initial measures fail and the ship remains stuck, it will need to have its cargo of several thousand shipping containers removed, a job that could take weeks.

Contrary to reducing load on the ship, some dragging is being done which is not only damaging canal wall, but can certainly sink the ship deeper.  

I am amused to read lines like “While lives are not at stake this time, the vast economic interests in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes make the urgency of the situation critical”.

The salvage company says, “It needs to come up with a plan that is acceptable to the ship owner, insurance companies, and the Egyptian, state-owned Suez Canal authority”.

“It is a difficult puzzle, because the ship is currently being strained by unnatural forces. We don’t want it to tip or tear in half during the salvage,” says the salvage company.

To conclude, I refer to Clemens Schapeler with global logistics platform Transporeon said, “I think the most likely outcome is that it will be refloated on Sunday or Monday. But the worst case (stuck for weeks) is a real possibility.”

Anti Modi demonstrations erupt in Bangladesh

Two-day tour of Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi to Bangladesh starts on Friday. Earlier, leaders from Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives have attended the festivities, which started on 17th March.

Modi’s visit is part of 10-day celebrations of the Golden Jubilee of Bangladesh independence. This also marks Birth Centenary of the nation's founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

During his visit, Modi is scheduled to visit two temples in southern rural districts, including the birthplace of a top Hindu reformer who has large number of followers in the Indian West Bengal and Bangladesh.

To display their displeasure some factions staged anti-Modi demonstration in Dhaka. The protesters accused Modi of stoking religious tensions and inciting anti-Muslim violence in the Indian state of Gujarat in 2002, which left about 1,000 people dead. Modi was Gujarat's chief minister at the time of the deadly religious riots.

On Thursday, student organizations under the banner of ‘Progressive Student Alliance’ were demonstrating against Modi’s visit.They were allegedly attacked by Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) activists at Dhaka University campus.

 “Some 40 protesters were injured, including 18 hospitalized with injuries from police beatings and rubber bullets,” Bin Yamin Molla, a senior official of the Student Rights Council, which organized the protest, told AFP.

Witnesses said several hundreds of BCL men with local weapons were seen at the Teachers Students Centre (TSC).

Earlier in the day, Jubo Odhikar Parishad activists clashed with police in the city’s Motijheel area while protesting against the Indian prime minister’s visit.

The Parishad, youth front of former vice president of Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) Nurul Haque Nur’s organization, blocked the roads in the Motijheel area in the afternoon.

The clashes started when the law enforcing agencies tried to stop the demonstrators.