Donald Trump: America’s Embarrassment

On July 09, 2017, I read an interesting blog by Margaret Kimberley titled ‘America’s Embarrassment’.  I picked up a few paragraphs from that and copy pasted those. I salute Margaret, her lines look as fresh as written today.

Donald Trump is a national embarrassment. Corporate media pundits have declared this statement to be true and millions of people are in agreement. As a candidate and as president Trump has certainly deviated from the norms of acceptable public behavior, but how much does that really matter?

Many Americans love to brag that theirs is “the richest country in the world.” There are certainly big banks, rich individuals and trillions of dollars in the treasury but the masses of people rarely benefit from this wealth. This country routinely ranks near the bottom when compared to other “developed” nations in any measure of how it treats its people. It is now considered a “second tier” nation in terms of the wellbeing of its citizens.

It is certainly unusual to have such a decidedly boorish president. Trump literally pushes other presidents aside, engages in public feuds with celebrities and makes anyone an enemy who dares to oppose him or his policies. He makes up terms like “bigly” and “modern presidential” and excoriates the press when they criticize him. Condemning this kind of behavior is the lowest hanging fruit.

Trump can be blamed for quite a lot during his first six months in office. His travel ban against citizens of seven nations is an unconstitutional exercise in Islamphobia and has been struck down by federal judges. Trump bans Libyans from traveling to the United States, but Obama destroyed that country and created an ongoing humanitarian disaster.

The concluding remarks are most interesting, “The list of reasons to be embarrassed about America is very long and it existed before Trump was inaugurated. He has surely added to that ledger, but legitimate cause for concern shouldn’t be pushed aside in favor of phony outrage about optics. President Trump is an ill- mannered, impulsive, happily uninformed bigot. Most of his predecessors were better behaved and followed rules of public relations. But they filled the jails, ended the right to public assistance, killed millions of people abroad, kept wages low and used a variety of schemes to make the rich even richer. Despite his obvious shortcomings Donald Trump is not the worst among them. And that is the most embarrassing fact of all”.

Why genocide in Gaza can’t be stopped?

The situation in Gaza is extremely complex and the most tragic. Many around the world view the events as a genocide or use similar language to describe the mass civilian deaths and destruction. However, stopping it has proven exceptionally difficult for several interlocking reasons that include:

Geopolitical Support and Impunity

Israel receives strong diplomatic, military, and financial support from the United State. and some European countries. This often translates into vetoes at the UN, delays or blocks to ceasefire calls, and a general lack of enforcement of international law. Israel has historically not faced major consequences for military actions in Gaza, leading to a perception of impunity.

Power Asymmetry

Israel has one of the most advanced militaries in the world; Gaza, governed by Hamas and containing millions of civilians, is heavily blockaded and lacks basic infrastructure. With no army, air force, or functioning economy, most of Gaza’s population are civilians who cannot flee or defend themselves, which worsens the humanitarian crisis but doesn’t shift the balance of power.

Hamas and Israeli Security Policy

Hamas has been designated a terrorist organization by many countries. Its attacks on Israeli civilians on October 07, 2023 are used to justify Israel's military campaigns, often without sufficient distinction between combatants and civilians. Israel’s strategy includes weakening Palestinian national aspirations or displacing populations, under the guise of fighting terrorism.

Weak International Institutions

The UN has condemned actions by both sides but lacks enforcement power. Security Council vetoes paralyze action. Many countries call for peace or ceasefire but do not intervene directly, militarily or diplomatically.

Media and Narrative Control

There is intense contestation over how the conflict is framed. Terms like “genocide,” “ethnic cleansing,” or “self-defense” are politically charged, and mainstream media coverage often reflects the stance of powerful governments, making unified international pressure difficult.

Humanitarian Aid Blockages

Even humanitarian ceasefires often collapse or are partial, and aid is restricted or bombed, leading to mass famine, disease, and collapse of health systems, which intensifies civilian suffering.

Lack of Political Will

Regional divisions, internal politics, arms industry interests, and fear of confronting powerful allies all contribute to a lack of coordinated pressure on Israel to halt its military operations. Many legal scholars, UN experts, and human rights organizations argue that the scale and intent of destruction in Gaza meet the legal definition of genocide. Genocide is defined not just by killing, but by the intent to destroy a group in whole or in part, through killing, causing serious harm, or creating unlivable conditions. Stopping the violence in Gaza is not only about humanitarian urgency — it is blocked by a mix of political alliances, military interests, narrative control, legal ambiguity, and lack of enforceable global mechanisms. Many around the world are calling for action, but meaningful international intervention remains elusive.

Rulers US hostages

One of the narratives is that Israel is adamant at killing all living in Gaza and occupy the enclave into settlements. It is also being said that the strip in rich in fossil oil/ gas. The situation took a twist when US President Donald Trump expressed intention to convert Gaza into a tourist resort. It is also being said that the rulers of oil rich country are ‘hostage” of United States. They presented a luxury plane worth US$400 million to Trump on his visit to the Middle East, but could not convince him to stop genocide in Gaza.

 

Trump aims to destroy Iranian nuclear sites

US President Donald Trump's threat to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities is a clear red line and will have severe consequences, the semi-official Fars News Agency reported on Friday.

"If US seeks a diplomatic solution, it must abandon the language of threats and sanctions," an unnamed Iranian official said, adding that such threats "are open hostility against Iran's national interests."

Trump has told reporters on Wednesday at the White House, “I want it (nuclear agreement) very strong where we can go in with inspectors, we can take whatever we want, we can blow up whatever we want, but nobody getting killed. We can blow up a lab, but nobody is gonna be in a lab, as opposed to everybody being in the lab and blowing it up.”

Trump has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities if diplomacy fails to resolve a decades-long dispute over Tehran's nuclear program.

Trump said on Friday that an Iran deal was possible in the "not-too-distant future."

 

 

 

 

 

Yemen strikes Ben Gurion Airport once again

The Yemeni Armed Forces announced on Friday the execution of a military operation targeting Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv and have warned they will continue enforcing an air and maritime blockade unless the siege on Gaza is lifted. The attack was conducted using a hypersonic ballistic missile, reports the Tehran Times.

Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces, confirmed that the operation successfully achieved its objectives.

He said it forced “millions of occupying Zionists to flee into shelters and brought air traffic at the airport to a halt.”

Saree emphasized that the operation reaffirms the Yemeni Armed Forces’ ongoing religious, moral, and humanitarian duty toward the Palestinian people.

He stated that Yemen will persist in enforcing a blockade on Israeli air navigation to and from Ben Gurion Airport and will respond to any Israeli aggression against Yemen with further military support operations in solidarity with the oppressed Palestinian people.

Israeli media had reported detecting a ballistic missile launched from Yemen, which led to the suspension of air traffic at Ben Gurion Airport. This coincided with air raid sirens sounding across wide areas.

Israeli police also reported receiving alerts about fragments from a missile falling in southern Jerusalem (occupied al-Quds) and a nearby settlement.

The government in Sanaa has vowed that the Israeli aggression will not deter Yemen from its ongoing military operations in support of Gaza.

The leader of the Ansarallah movement, Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, also declared that “Israeli aggression on Sanaa International Airport will not stop Yemeni operations in support of the Palestinian people.”

He added that the Yemeni Armed Forces are preparing to escalate their operations in the coming phase to increase their effectiveness and impact on the Israeli enemy.

On Wednesday, Israeli warplanes launched several airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport, only about ten days after it had resumed operations following a previous Israeli attack.

This latest attack by the Yemeni Armed Forces is part of a series of military actions aimed at imposing an aerial blockade on the Israeli occupation regime. The repeated missile attacks have specifically targeted Ben Gurion Airport.

In recent weeks, these operations have led to repeated disruptions in air traffic and prompted several international airlines to suspend flights to and from Tel Aviv.

Yemen maintains that these attacks are being carried out in support of the Palestinians in Gaza and has pledged to continue launching strikes until the US-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza ends and the blockade on the coastal strip is lifted.

 

PSX benchmark index up 0.49%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range-bound throughout the week, weighed down by uncertainty regarding potential revenue measures in the upcoming Federal Budget FY26, trading within the thin range. Benchmark index gained 588 points or 0.49%WoW to close at 119,691 points on Friday, May 30, 2025.

Market participation improved, with average daily traded volumes rising by 34.6%WoW to 662 million shares, up from 492 million shares a week ago.

The IMF concluded its staff mission last week on the Federal Budget FY26, stating that discussions on the upcoming budget proposals were constructive, while further deliberations will continue.

GoP raised PKR720 billion from T-Bills auction, with cutoff yields for 6-month falling to 11.18%, which was at a 38-month low.

China has assured Pakistan of US$3.7 billion in refinancing in June 2025, which will facilitate Pakistan to meet IMF's foreign exchange reserves target of US$14 billion by the FY25 end.

The government is reportedly close to finalizing a financing agreement aimed at retiring circular debt in the power sector.

PKR depreciated marginally by 0.02%WoW to close at 282.02/US$.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$70 million to a 19-week high of US$11.5 billion.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Weekly inflation recorded a decline of 0.81%, 2) FBR to levy 18% sales tax in FATA/PATA region, 3) GoP considering exempting import of equipment and machinery for up-gradation of refineries under Brownfield Refinery Policy, 4) GoP considering reduction of GST on packaged milk, and 5) SBP raised PKR187 billion through floating rate PIBs.

Jute, Textile Weaving, and Paper & Board were amongst the top performing sectors, while Automobile Assembler, Transport, and Food & Personal Care were the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$5.6 million. On the other hand, Brokers and individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$6.4 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: KTML, PKGP, KEL, PTC, and APL, while laggards included TPLRF, RMPL, GADT, SAZEW, and AGL.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with developments around the upcoming federal budget likely to drive short-term sentiment, along with room for rate cut in the upcoming MPC meeting as forecast for FY26 inflation at 7.0%.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top picks of the brokerage house include, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

 

Israel announces major expansion of settlements in occupied West Bank

Israeli ministers announced 22 new Jewish settlements have been approved in the occupied West Bank — the biggest expansion in decades. Several already exist as outposts, built without government authorization, but will now be made legal under Israeli law. Others are completely new, according to Defence Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, reports BBC.

Settlements — which are widely seen as illegal under international law, though Israel disputes this — are one of the most contentious issues between Israel and the Palestinians.

Katz said the move "prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel", while the Palestinian presidency called it a "dangerous escalation".

The Israeli anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now called it "the most extensive move of its kind" in more than 30 years and warned that it would "dramatically reshape the West Bank and entrench the occupation even further".

Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews since it occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem — land Palestinians want, along with Gaza, for their hoped-for future state — in the 1967 Middle East war.

Successive Israeli governments have allowed settlements to grow. However, expansion has risen sharply since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to power in late 2022 at the head of a right-wing, pro-settler coalition, as well as the start of the Gaza war, triggered on 07 October 07, 2023.

On Thursday, Israel Katz and Bezalel Smotrich — an ultranationalist leader and settler who has control over planning in the West Bank — officially confirmed a decision that is believed to have been taken by the government two weeks ago.

A statement said ministers had approved 22 new settlements, the "renewal of settlement in northern Samaria, northern West Bank, and reinforcement of the eastern axis of the State of Israel".

It highlighted what the ministers described as the "historic return" to Homesh and Sa-Nur, two settlements deep in the northern West Bank which were evacuated at the same time as Israel withdrew its troops and settlers from Gaza in 2005.

Two years ago, a group of settlers established a Jewish religious school and an unauthorized outpost at Homesh, which reports say would be among nine made legal under Israeli law.

Another settlement will reportedly be built not far to the south on Mount Ebal, near Nablus.

Katz said the decision was a "strategic move that prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger Israel, and serves as a buffer against our enemies."

"This is a Zionist, security, and national response — and a clear decision on the future of the country," he added.

Smotrich called it a "once-in-a-generation decision" and declared, "Next step sovereignty".

A spokesperson for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas — who governs parts of the West Bank not under full Israeli control — called it a "dangerous escalation" and accused Israel of continuing to drag the region into a "cycle of violence and instability".

"This extremist Israeli government is trying by all means to prevent the establishment of an independent Palestinian state," Nabil Abu Rudeineh told Reuters news agency.

Lior Amihai, director of Peace Now said, "The Israeli government no longer pretends otherwise, the annexation of the occupied territories and expansion of settlements is its central goal."

This step is a blow to renewed efforts to revive momentum on a two-state solution to the decades-old Israel-Palestinian conflict — the internationally approved formula for peace that would see the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel — with a French-Saudi summit planned at the UN's headquarters in New York next month.

Last year, the UN's top court issued an advisory opinion saung, "Israel's continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful". The International Court of Justice (ICJ) also said Israeli settlements "have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law", and that Israel should "evacuate all settlers".

Israel's prime minister said at the time that the court had made a "decision of lies" and insisted that "the Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land".

Iran executes Mossad spy Pedram Madani

The Iranian Judiciary has announced the execution of Pedram Madani, convicted of espionage for the Israeli regime's Mossad intelligence service and large-scale financial corruption. The sentence was carried out after all legal appeals and procedures were completed.

According to a statement released by the Iranian Judiciary's Media Center, Madani was initially apprehended in Tehran in 2020.

He faced serious charges including "espionage on behalf of the criminal Zionist regime’s intelligence service (Mossad)" and "acquisition of property through illegitimate means, involving the receipt of foreign cash currency (Euros) in Europe and digital currency (Bitcoin)."

The Judiciary statement outlined Madani's extensive activities on behalf of the hostile foreign service. Before his arrest, Madani frequently traveled outside Iran, particularly to Germany.

"Utilizing training courses provided by Mossad," the statement detailed, "he sought to recruit individuals and collect classified information, transmitting it securely to his Mossad handler."

Evidence presented during his trial proved damning. Judicial documents confirmed Madani's efforts to transmit sensitive classified data, "including locations and buildings housing critical infrastructure equipment," via secure communication channels to his Mossad officer.

Furthermore, the Judiciary revealed that "during one of several meetings with his service officer in various countries, Pedram Madani met his direct Mossad handler at the Zionist regime’s embassy in Brussels."

Digital forensics played a crucial role in the case. "Information recovered from Pedram Madani's electronic devices," the Judiciary stated, "showed exchanges of messages between the accused and his Mossad officer."

Crucially, evidence included an order from the officer instructing Madani to "categorize the information and transfer it to the specialized section of the service." Madani's travels to the occupied territories during his period of collaboration with Mossad were also documented by investigators.

Iranian security services successfully monitored and terminated Madani's espionage network. "With intelligence oversight, his information networks were dismantled, his connection with the service was severed, and he was arrested," the Judiciary Media Center reported.

After undergoing the full process of criminal proceedings, Madani was found guilty of espionage for Mossad. The court convicted him of "Moharebeh" (waging war against God) and "Efsade Fil Arz" (corruption on earth), sentencing him to death.

"The sentences issued by the court were carried out after completing all legal formalities, and the convict was hanged," the Judiciary Media Center concluded, confirming the execution of the sentence against Pedram Madani.

Iran has long been a target of espionage and destabilization efforts by the Israeli regime. The Islamic Republic maintains a vigilant and robust security apparatus that has consistently identified, apprehended, and brought to justice individuals engaged in espionage and terrorist activities on behalf of hostile foreign entities, particularly Mossad.

Recent high-profile cases, such as the apprehension of Mohsen Langaraneshin – a key Mossad agent linked to terrorist operations within Iran – further demonstrate Iran's unwavering commitment to protecting its national security, sovereignty, and citizens from foreign interference and threats.

 

 

Persian Gulf: Iran and its international rivals

In recent months, tensions in the Persian Gulf have reentered the global spotlight—not through official declarations, but via a silent escalation playing out beneath the waves and between the straits. 

A string of maritime incidents, including ship seizures, sabotage operations, and contested maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz, signal a renewed phase in the long-standing shadow war between Iran and its regional and international rivals.

The Persian Gulf is more than a strategic waterway; it is a living barometer of regional power shifts. The reconfiguration of alliances post-Abraham Accords, coupled with the fluctuating presence of US naval forces and growing Chinese and Russian maritime interests, has intensified the complexity of the Persian Gulf’s security architecture.

Iran, amid this shifting terrain, has reasserted its deterrence policy by emphasizing control over its maritime borders and responding assertively to any provocations.

What distinguishes the recent maritime confrontations is Iran's evolving use of asymmetric tactics. Swarm boat strategies, drone surveillance, and strategic use of legal justifications—such as violations of maritime law or territorial infringements—have created a layered deterrent.

This blend of legal framing and tactical innovation complicates traditional Western responses, especially in light of the US Navy’s overstretched commitments and decreasing regional political will.

The revival of maritime tensions arrives as global energy routes remain vulnerable. While the Ukraine war has redirected European focus to the Black Sea, any disruption in the Persian Gulf—through escalation or miscalculation—would immediately reverberate across global oil markets.

Recent warnings by the International Maritime Organization and insurance spikes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz reflect this latent anxiety.

Western narratives often frame Iran’s maritime moves as purely aggressive or destabilizing. What they fail to capture is Tehran’s perception of maritime sovereignty and the deep-seated belief that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a conduit for oil, but a frontline in a decades-long confrontation.

The lack of a regional maritime security framework, driven by Persian Gulf rivalries and external interference, leaves the space dangerously under-regulated.

If maritime escalation is to be averted, regional actors and global powers must pivot from symbolic gestures to structured engagement.

Multilateral frameworks, including regional naval de-escalation pacts and recognition of mutual security concerns, must take precedence over sanctions and unilateral maneuvers.

Only then can the Persian Gulf evolve from a perpetual flashpoint into a stable corridor of energy, commerce, and cooperation.

 

 

Ahram New Editor The Middle East Journal

The Middle East Institute (MEI) has announced the appointment of Dr. Ariel I. Ahram as the new Editor of The Middle East Journal (MEJ), MEI’s flagship print publication and the oldest scholarly journal in North America dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East.

Dr. Ahram, a professor at Virginia Tech’s School of Public and International Affairs, brings a distinguished record of scholarship and public engagement to the role. He is the author of several acclaimed books on regional conflict, governance, and security, and he has served as the principal investigator for the Carnegie Corporation of New York’s Ending Proxy Wars in the Middle East initiative. His appointment signals a new era for the Journal as it renews its focus on contemporary policy issues while maintaining its commitment to academic excellence.

Dr. Ahram’s hiring reflects an important inflection point in MEJ’s history. He will oversee a broad set of changes to the Journal. While retaining its standards for rigorous, insightful research and analysis, MEJ will increasingly emphasize the current affairs of the Middle East, the history that underlies its contemporary dynamics, and the policies of regional states as well as key external powers such as the United States. It will focus far more on the underlying causes and potential courses of action to address the problems and opportunities of the modern Middle East.

“We are honored to welcome Dr. Ahram to MEI as Editor of The Middle East Journal,” said Stuart E. Jones, President of MEI. “He possesses exactly the right mix of expertise, creativity, and policy acumen required to transform the Journal into a vital resource, broadening its impact, deepening its relevance, and elevating its role in today’s policy and academic conversations.”

“A new Middle East requires a new Middle East Journal,” said Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Vice President for Policy at MEI. “With Ariel at the helm, and with this new editorial direction, the Journal will continue to meet the highest standards of quality while offering vital insights for policymakers, analysts, and engaged readers alike. We are deeply grateful to our longtime subscribers and readers for their support, and we hope they will continue to follow the Journal as it evolves to meet the urgent policy challenges of today.”

Airlines again suspend flights to Israel

Global airlines have again halted flights to and from Tel Aviv after a missile fired by Yemen's Houthis towards Israel on May 04 landed near the country's main international airport, and as Israel continues to carry out strikes across the Gaza Strip, reports Reuters

Airlines had begun to resume flights after a ceasefire deal with Hamas was reached in January.

Israel resumed military operations in the enclave in March and has further stepped these up in May.

Below are airlines that have cancelled flights since early May:

AIRBALTIC

Latvia's airBaltic said it had cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv until June 02.

AIR FRANCE-KLM

The group's Dutch arm KLM suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv until May 30.

AIR INDIA

The Indian flag carrier said on May 26 in a post on X that flights to and from Tel Aviv were currently suspended, without specifying a time frame.

IAG

IAG-owned British Airways has suspended flights to Tel Aviv until June 14. IAG's low-cost airline, Iberia Express, has cancelled flights to Tel Aviv until May 31.

ITA AIRWAYS

The Italian carrier has suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv until June 15.

LOT

The Polish airline has suspended flights to Tel Aviv until May 31.

LUFTHANSA GROUP

The German airline group has suspended flights to and from Tel Aviv through June 15.

RYANAIR

Europe's biggest budget airline has cancelled flights to and from Tel Aviv until June 11.

UNITED AIRLINES

The Chicago-based airline said its flights to and from Tel Aviv may be impacted between May 04 and June 02.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announce new oil discovery

The governments of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announced a new oil discovery in the North Wafra Wara-Burgan field, located approximately 5 kilometers north of the Wafra field in the Partitioned Zone between the two countries, reports Saudi Gazette.

According to the joint statement, crude oil flowed from the Wara reservoir in the North Wafra (Wara-Burgan-1) wellat a rate exceeding 500 barrels per day, with an API gravity of 26 to 27 degrees.

This is the first oil discovery since the resumption of production operations in the Partitioned Zone and its adjacent offshore area in mid-2020, when both countries restarted joint operations after a period of suspension.

The discovery is considered strategically significant, as it reinforces Saudi Arabia and Kuwait’s roles as reliable global energy suppliers, and reflects their ongoing capabilities in exploration and production across shared oil fields

 

MSC container ship sinks off Indian coast

According to Seatrade Maritime News, the Liberian-registered MSC Elsa 3 sank on May 25, 2025 off the coast of Kochi according to India’s Ministry of Defence. The MSC Elsa 3 was on a voyage Vizhinjam to Kochi when it developed a 26 degree starboard list.

Initially 21 crew from the container ship were rescued by the Indian Coast Guard on 24 May. The Master, Chief Engineer, and 2nd Engineer stayed onboard the vessel and were rescued on Sunday morning by the Indian Navy vessel Sujuta as the MSC Elsa 3 started to sink due to flooding one its holds.

There are fears of an oil spill 84.44 metric tonnes of diesel and 367.1 metric tonnes of fuel oil in the vessel’s fuel tanks although as of Sunday morning the Indian Coast Guard said no oil spill had been reported.

The MSC Elsa 3 was reported to have 640 containers onboard 13 listed as containing hazardous cargo and 12 with calcium carbide.

“The Indian Coast Guard has activated comprehensive pollution response preparedness and working in close coordination with State administration to address all possible scenarios.

Indian Coast Guard aircraft equipped with advanced oil spill mapping technology are conducting aerial assessment of the affected area,” the coast guard said on X on Sunday morning.

The 1997-built MSC Elsa 3 is owned and managed by the world’s largest container shipping company Geneva-based MSC, according to Equasis. The 28-year old vessel’s last Port State Control inspection was in Mangalore on November 19, 2024 when 5 deficiencies were found.

MSC owns a large number of elderly container vessels and as of November 2023 had 212 ships over 20 years old according to analysts Alphaliner.

 

 

 

Israel deploys additional brigades into Gaza

The Israeli military has deployed nine additional infantry and armored brigades into the Gaza Strip within the last 24 hours, signaling a further escalation in its ground offensive across the enclave, Israel's public broadcaster KAN reported.

The reinforcements are part of an expanded military operation approved earlier this month under what Israeli officials have termed the “Chariots of Gideon” plan, a long-term campaign involving sustained ground combat and wide-scale displacement of Gaza’s civilian population.

According to KAN, the army’s operations are currently focused on two main areas: northern Gaza and the southern city of Khan Younis.

The military has warned residents in those areas to evacuate ahead of intensified aerial bombardments, though reports from humanitarian groups and residents indicate many displaced civilians continue to face attacks during their movement and in supposed safe zones.

The Israeli army previously deployed Divisions 252, 143, and 36 to Gaza. In the last week, it added Divisions 98 and 162, with the latest deployment further bolstering ground forces already operating in the Strip. No official figures have been released regarding the number of troops involved.

On May 4, Israel’s Security Cabinet gave formal approval to expand the military campaign. The government subsequently began mobilizing tens of thousands of reservists and launched a coordinated ground assault on May 18 from multiple directions.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported Friday that more than 172,000 people in Gaza have been newly displaced in the past week alone, adding to the worsening humanitarian crisis.

Israel has stated that its forces are working to evacuate civilians from designated combat zones, though aid agencies have warned of ongoing strikes on displaced populations.

Since the start of the conflict in October 2023, more than 53,900 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health authorities. The majority of those killed are reported to be women and children.

Israel continues to face mounting international scrutiny over its military campaign. In November, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, citing alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Additionally, proceedings continue at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), where Israel is the subject of a genocide case brought forward by South Africa.

The Israeli government has rejected international ceasefire calls and maintains that its operations are aimed at neutralizing threats from militant groups operating within Gaza.

Iran: Uranium Enrichment Sovereign Right

Amid the ongoing tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, one crucial fact often gets buried beneath heated political arguments. Iran, as a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), holds an explicit legal right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. 

Any attempts to curtail Iran's legitimate nuclear rights not only contradict international law but also ignore the profound domestic consensus and national resolve to maintain this crucial aspect of Iran's technological and strategic independence.

The continued US insistence that Iran abandon enrichment activities not only contradicts international law but also undermines global diplomatic norms that Washington claims to advocate. Established in 1970, the NPT serves as the cornerstone of global nuclear policy. Article IV clearly states that all signatory nations have the "inalienable right" to develop nuclear technology for peaceful applications without discrimination.

Over the years, Iran has consistently stated that its uranium enrichment is intended solely for energy production and medical purposes. Typically, uranium enrichment levels around 3% to 5% are necessary for nuclear power.

Although, recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicate Iran has increased its enrichment to higher levels, international law does not explicitly prohibit enrichment itself, provided it remains for civilian purposes. 

US stance

The US claims Iran's enrichment poses a proliferation risk and demands a complete halt. However, this stance is fundamentally political and lacks strong legal justification. 

The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, despite Iran’s initial full compliance, significantly damaged diplomatic credibility.

Recent indirect negotiations mediated by Oman, along with high-profile visits to West Asia by President Donald Trump and his envoy Steven Witkoff, highlight the complexity of these discussions. 

One of the important points that should be mentioned here is that the US negotiators knew from the outset that uranium enrichment represents an uncompromising "red line" for Iran.

Initiating talks under conditions demanding a halt in enrichment was unrealistic and demonstrates either a lack of understanding or disregard for Iran’s firm diplomatic stance.

Double standards

US credibility is further undermined by apparent double standards. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and Japan all have uranium enrichment programs under IAEA supervision without facing similar scrutiny or pressure. Subjecting Iran uniquely to intense pressure based on geopolitical factors weakens the integrity of the global non-proliferation system.

If rights granted by the NPT become selectively applied based on political alliances and agendas, the entire framework could collapse. Nations would see little reason to adhere to non-proliferation and disarmament norms if they perceive that these rights can be arbitrarily revoked.

For Iran, uranium enrichment goes beyond civilian purposes, offering vital strategic leverage and acting as a deterrent. Given regional tensions, Iran views its nuclear capabilities as crucial to national security, making US demands for complete cessation strategically unrealistic and politically impossible.

A sovereign right

Iran’s unwavering pursuit of a peaceful nuclear program is not merely a policy choice; it is an inalienable right, firmly rooted in international law and a matter of national sovereignty.

As a committed signatory to the NPT, Iran has consistently affirmed its entitlement to develop, research, produce, and utilize nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, without discrimination.

This right, enshrined in Article IV of the NPT, is a fundamental principle of global non-proliferation, and Tehran's consistent adherence to its obligations, including rigorous inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), underscores its transparency and commitment to a non-military nuclear future.

Demand Iran to abandon its legitimate enrichment activities is to deny a sovereign nation its rightful place in the global scientific and technological community. Iran has invested decades and considerable national resources, including enduring unjust sanctions and the sacrifices of its brightest scientists, to achieve self-sufficiency in its nuclear fuel cycle.

The drive for indigenous capability is not born of a desire for weapons, but from a painful history where external promises of nuclear fuel supply for even medical reactors proved unreliable.

Therefore, the ability to enrich uranium domestically is viewed as a critical guarantee against future dependence and a testament to national resilience.

Iran's peaceful nuclear program is a symbol of its independent spirit and its dedication to scientific progress. It serves as a vital component of its national security doctrine, providing a deterrent against potential aggression without seeking to develop nuclear weapons, which are explicitly forbidden by religious decree from Iran’s Leader.

 

Iran-US nuclear talks limited progress achieved

Iran and the United States made “some but not conclusive progress” in the fifth round of nuclear negotiations held in Rome on Friday, as the two sides continue to struggle over core issues such as uranium enrichment and regional security threats, reports Saudi Gazette.

Omani mediator Badr al-Busaidi, who facilitated the closed-door meeting at the Omani Embassy in Rome, said both sides remain engaged but far from reaching a deal.

“We hope to clarify the remaining issues in the coming days, to allow us to proceed towards the common goal of reaching a sustainable and honourable agreement,” he wrote on X.

The talks follow months of heightened pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, which Western intelligence agencies now estimate could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear device in under a week — though building a functioning bomb would likely take several months.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state television that while the session was productive, the negotiations are too complex for quick resolution.

“I am hopeful that in the next one or two rounds — especially given the better understanding of the Islamic Republic’s positions — we can reach solutions that allow the talks to progress,” he said.

US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff and State Department policy planning director Michael Anton represented Washington at the Rome meeting.

At the heart of the impasse is Iran’s insistence on continuing domestic uranium enrichment, a stance the US opposes.

Initially open to limited enrichment up to 3.67%, the US has hardened its position in recent rounds, pushing for a complete halt.

One compromise under discussion involves creating a regional uranium supply consortium — backed by the US and neighboring states — to provide Iran with low-enriched uranium for peaceful purposes, while limiting domestic enrichment.

Iran remains firm in its demand to maintain control over its fuel cycle within its borders.

Meanwhile, Israeli threats to unilaterally strike Iran’s nuclear facilities have escalated tensions.

On Thursday, Araghchi warned that Iran would take “special measures” to defend its installations, and accused Washington of complicity if such an attack occurs.

That same day, Iranian students formed a human chain around the Fordo enrichment site, a fortified facility buried deep within a mountain.

Despite tough rhetoric, Iran faces mounting internal and external pressure. Economic unrest continues to simmer, fueled by inflation, a volatile currency, and speculation over increases in subsidized fuel prices.

Iran’s rial fell to more than 1 million per US dollar in April, though it has rebounded slightly amid renewed diplomatic engagement.

Iran's regional clout has also weakened. Its "Axis of Resistance" network has suffered heavy blows during Israel’s war with Hamas, and the collapse of Bashar Assad’s government following a December rebel offensive further isolated Tehran diplomatically.

While President Donald Trump has threatened airstrikes if no deal is reached, his administration has continued to impose new sanctions, including a ban this week on the sale of sodium perchlorate to Iran.

The chemical, imported via China through Shahid Rajaei port, was linked to a massive explosion in April that killed dozens and injured more than 1,000 people — an incident still under investigation. 

Israel: Ben Gurion Airport Attacked

Yemeni forces persist in striking the Israeli regime with hypersonic missiles in response to its genocidal war on Gaza. In a recent operation, the Yemeni Armed Forces launched a new strike on Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, prompting millions of Israelis to seek shelter and leading to a suspension of airport operations.

Brigadier General Yahya Saree announced that the Yemeni forces executed a “qualitative military operation” targeting Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv using a hypersonic ballistic missile. The attack successfully halted air traffic at the airport.

Saree confirmed that the operation achieved its intended goals, causing the suspension of air travel and sending millions of settlers into hiding. 

He warned, “Remaining silent about the daily massacres in Gaza will bring shame and disgrace upon this nation, leaving it more vulnerable to its enemies than ever, unless it acts to fulfill its religious, moral, and humanitarian obligations toward the oppressed Palestinian people.”

General Saree further stated that the Yemeni Armed Forces will continue and intensify their operations until the Israeli genocide in Gaza ends and the blockade is lifted.

Following the missile launch from Yemen, air raid sirens were activated in Tel Aviv and throughout large areas across Israel. The Israeli occupation army confirmed, “Air defenses are dealing with a ballistic missile launched from Yemen.”

Israeli media also reported the suspension of flights to and from Ben Gurion Airport as a result of the attack, highlighting the disruption caused to Israeli air traffic.

The Yemeni Armed Forces have issued warnings of an aerial blockade on the Israeli regime, marked by repeated strikes on Ben Gurion Airport.

“In light of the developments in Gaza and the enemy’s escalating crimes against our steadfast and oppressed people, the Yemeni Armed Forces are working to double their capabilities to expand support operations and intensify military action,” Saree stated. 

“This includes maintaining the ban on air traffic at Lod Airport (Ben Gurion), a maritime blockade at Haifa Port, and a restriction on Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas.”

A previous strike near the airport in early May, reportedly hitting a car park, also led to the suspension of air traffic and cancellation of several international flights.

Following these developments, international airlines began canceling flights to and from Ben Gurion Airport, causing a notable decline in passenger traffic.

Israeli Channel 12 reported that this was due to the Yemeni Armed Forces’ declaration of a comprehensive no-fly zone over Israeli airspace.

On May 06, the United States reached a ceasefire agreement with the Yemeni government. The near-daily strikes had failed to deter Yemeni retaliation.

Trump stated the ceasefire was “effective immediately” after the US acknowledged that its warships in the Red Sea had been subjected to repeated attacks.

Analysts believe that the US military campaign in Yemen, widely viewed as a measure to protect the Israeli regime, became too costly to sustain.

In less than six weeks, Yemeni forces shot down seven American MQ-9 Reaper drones over their airspace, causing losses totaling approximately US$200 million.

Additionally, the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman has returned home after losing three fighter jets in the Red Sea.
 

 

PSX benchmark index declines by 0.5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range bound during the week, as uncertainty over the upcoming budget moderated investor confidence built on Pak-India ceasefire and the IMF agreement. The benchmark index declined by 546 points or 0.5%WoW to close at 119,103 points on Friday.

Market participation also weakened, with average daily traded volumes falling by 25%WoW to 492 million shares, down from 660 million shares a week ago.

As regards FY26 Federal budget, revenue target is expected to rise to PKR14.3 trillion from FY25 target of PKR12.3tn. A key highlight includes tariff rationalization; capping the highest tariff at 15%, removing Additional Customs Duty (ACD), and reducing Regulatory Duty by 80% till FY30.

The National Accounts Committee approved the provisional GDP growth at 2.68%YoY for FY25. Consequently, Pakistan's economy has expanded to US$411 billion, making it the 40th largest in the world and pushing per capita income to a record US$1,824.

In its post–first review report, IMF acknowledged that Pakistan has met all quantitative performance criteria, most indicative targets, and several structural benchmarks.

IMF also revised down GDP growth and current account deficit forecasts and updated the timelines of structural benchmarks along with introducing new ones for the coming year. Furthermore, IMF endorsed the GoP plan to eliminate the power sector's circular debt by FY31.

On the currency front, PKR depreciated by 0.11%WoW to close at PKR281.97/US$. Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$1.0 billion to a 17-week high of US$11.4 billion.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF projects external debt to rise to US$126.7 billion by next financial year, 2) Profit repatriation jumps 115%YoY in last month, 3) During Q3FY25 Pakistan economy posts 2.4%YoY growth, and 4) Power generation surges 22%YoY in April 2025.

Woolen, Transport, and Inv Banks/ Cos & Securities Cos were amongst the top performers, while Sugar & Allied Industries, Cement, and Cable & Electrical Goods reported remained laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds, other organizations, and Companies with a net sell of US$10.1 million, US$4.1 million, and US$2.9 million respectively. Individuals and Insurance absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$13.1 million and US$7.5 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: POML, RMPL, GADT, BNWM, and PKGP, while laggards included:  HUMNL, NATF, LUCK, AVN, and MARI.

According to AKD Securities, the market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with developments around the upcoming federal budget likely to guide short-term sentiment. The KSE100 is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

 

Netanyahu accuses France, Britain and Canada of 'emboldening' Hamas

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the leaders of France, Britain and Canada of wanting to help the Palestinian militant group Hamas after they threatened to take "concrete action" if Israel did not stop its latest offensive in Gaza.

The criticism, echoing similar remarks from Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Thursday, was part of a fightback by the Israeli government against the increasingly heavy international pressure on it over the war in Gaza.

"You're on the wrong side of humanity and you're on the wrong side of history," Netanyahu said.

The Israeli leader, facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza, has regularly criticized European countries as well as global institutions from the United Nations to the International Court of Justice over what he says is their bias against Israel.

But as the flow of images of destruction and hunger in Gaza has continued, fuelling protests in countries around the world, Israel has struggled to turn international opinion, which has increasingly shifted against it

"It's hard to convince at least some people, definitely on the far left in the US and in some countries in Europe, that what Israel is doing is a war of defence," said former Israeli diplomat Yaki Dayan.

"But this is how it is perceived in Israel and bridging this gap is sometimes an impossible mission," he said.

Israeli officials have been particularly concerned about growing calls for other countries in Europe to follow the example of Spain and Ireland in recognizing a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to resolve decades of conflict in the region.

Netanyahu argues that a Palestinian state would threaten Israel and he has framed the killing of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington on Tuesday by a man who allegedly shouted "Free Palestine" as a clear example of that threat.

He said "exactly the same chant" was heard during the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 07, 2023.

"They don't want a Palestinian state. They want to destroy the Jewish state," he said in a statement on the social media platform X.

"I could never understand how this simple truth evades the leaders of France, Britain, Canada and others," he said, adding that any moves by Western countries to recognize a Palestinian state would "reward these murderers with the ultimate prize".

Instead of advancing peace, the three leaders were "emboldening Hamas to continue fighting forever", he said.

 

Israel might stage a new “Susannah” to implicate Iran

Iran’s Ambassador to Britain, Ali Mousavi, has sounded the alarm over potential "false flag operations" aimed at sabotaging Tehran-London relations. The rift widened after the Britain charged three Iranians under its National Security Act, alleging ties to a "foreign intelligence service".

Ambassador Mousavi’s alert reflects Tehran’s fear that Israel might stage a new "Susannah" to implicate Iran, leveraging the IRGC’s prominence and stalled nuclear talks. The Zionist regime’s history of sabotage makes such scenarios plausible.

Some experts contend that the British actions are rooted in mounting frustration over its declining influence in international diplomacy, prompting British officials to leverage pressure tactics to steer negotiations.

Additionally, other analysts argue that these measures dovetail with pro-Israel initiatives aimed at designating Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization—a classification Tehran vehemently condemns, viewing it as an unjustified escalation that severely damages diplomatic relations and heightens tensions between Iran and the West.

Iranian officials cite the Israeli regime’s track record of false flag operations to bolster their warnings. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei declared: "The Zionist regime has long flouted international law, from Gaza to the Lavon Affair, using sabotage to deceive."

The Lavon Affair

In July 1954, the Israeli regime launched Operation Susannah, later dubbed the Lavon Affair, a botched covert mission in Egypt.

Israeli military intelligence recruited a cell of Egyptian Jews to bomb civilian targets—cinemas, libraries, and U.S.-owned cultural centers in Cairo and Alexandria.

The plot aimed to pin the attacks on the Muslim Brotherhood or Egyptian communists, sowing chaos to convince Britain to keep troops in the Suez Canal zone, a linchpin for Tel Aviv’s regional strategy.

The operatives used crude incendiary devices hidden in books and bags, targeting places like the Cairo train station’s post office and the Rio Cinema.

Egyptian security foiled the scheme, capturing the agents after a bomb prematurely detonated. Public trials followed, with two executed and others imprisoned.

The fallout humiliated the Israeli regime: War Minister Pinhas Lavon resigned amid internal strife, and relations with the U.S. and UK soured.

Israel denied responsibility until 2005, when it honored surviving operatives, quietly admitting its role. 

USS Liberty Incident

On June 08, 1967, amid the Six-Day War, Israeli jets and torpedo boats assaulted the USS Liberty, a US Navy intelligence ship in international waters off Sinai. The two-hour barrage—machine-gun fire, napalm, and torpedoes—killed 34 American sailors and wounded 171, nearly sinking the vessel.

The regime insisted it mistook the Liberty, flying a US flag, for an Egyptian horse carrier, offering apologies and compensation.

Yet survivors and US officials, including Secretary of State Dean Rusk, disputed this, citing evidence of deliberate intent.

Declassified reports reveal Israeli reconnaissance planes circled the ship hours earlier, and radio intercepts suggest orders to ensure no survivors. Critics argue Tel Aviv aimed to silence US monitoring of its Golan Heights offensive.

Israeli Embassy Bombing in London

On July 26, 1994, a car bomb rocked Israel’s embassy in London, injuring 20. Hours later, a second blast hit Balfour House, a Jewish charity, wounding six. British authorities blamed Palestinian militants, convicting Samar Alami and Jawad Botmeh despite their claims of innocence.

Former MI5 officer Annie Machon later alleged Mossad staged the attacks to smear Palestinian activists in Britain, then an alleged hub for West Asian exiles.

Machon claimed the bombs’ sophistication pointed to state actors, not amateurs, and noted MI5’s ignored warnings of Israeli involvement, suggesting a false flag to sway British policy.

 

 

Iran warns Israel and US against any attack on its nuclear sites

The United States would bear legal responsibility in the event of an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday, following a CNN report that Israel might be preparing strikes on Iran.

Iran and the US, Israel's closest ally, will hold a fifth round of nuclear talks on Friday in Rome amid deep disagreement over uranium enrichment in Iran, which Washington says could lead to developing nuclear bombs. Iran denies such intent.

“Iran strongly warns against any adventurism by the Zionist regime of Israel and will decisively respond to any threat or unlawful act by this regime,” Araqchi said in a letter addressed to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Araqchi said Iran would view Washington as a “participant” in any such attack, and Tehran would have to adopt “special measures” to protect its nuclear sites and material if threats continued, and the International Atomic Energy Agency watchdog would be subsequently informed of such steps.

Although Araqchi did not specify what measures were being considered, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader said in April that Tehran could suspend cooperation with the IAEA or transfer enriched material to safe and undisclosed locations.

In a separate statement released on Thursday, Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards warned Israel would receive a "devastating and decisive response" if it attacks Iran.

"They are trying to frighten us with war but are miscalculating as they are unaware of the powerful popular and military support the Islamic Republic can muster in war conditions," Guards spokesperson Alimohammad Naini said.

A collapse of US-Iran negotiations or a new nuclear deal that does not alleviate Israeli concerns about Iran developing nuclear weapons through enrichment could motivate Israeli strikes on its regional arch-foe, diplomats say.

Later on Thursday, Araqchi said in a televised interview that if the United States aims to end uranium enrichment then there will be no nuclear deal.

"They have said [U.S. officials]... that they do not believe in enrichment in Iran... and it has to stop completely, if this is their goal there will be no deal", Araqchi said in the interview carried by state TV.

The Iranian foreign minister said the idea of a uranium enrichment consortium with the participation of other nations is not bad, but will not replace enrichment on Iranian soil.

On Tuesday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said US demands that Tehran stop refining uranium were "excessive and outrageous," and he voiced doubt over whether talks on a new nuclear deal would succeed. Tehran maintains its nuclear energy program is exclusively for civilian purposes.

 

Pentagon accepts Qatar jet for use by Trump

“The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth has accepted a Boeing 747 from Qatar in accordance with all federal rules and regulations,” chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement to The Hill’s sister network NewsNation.

“The Department of Defense will work to ensure proper security measures and functional-mission requirements are considered for an aircraft used to transport the President of the United States,” he added.

The Qatari gift was also raised at President Trump’s meeting with South Africa’s president at the White House on Wednesday. Trump shot down the question and pushed back on the reporter who asked about criticism around the jet.

Trump last week said he would accept the US$400 million luxury Boeing 747-8, previously used by the Qatari royal family, as a stand-in for the aging Air Force One fleet.

The plane — which is one of the largest foreign gifts ever accepted by a US president — has been criticized by US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who say it raises both ethical and security questions.

Numerous Republicans have argued that the purportedly free jet comes with strings, given it will need to go through the lengthy and expensive process of being transformed into Air Force One.

Others have raised safety concerns about the jet, including a group of senior Democratic senators led by Sen. Adam Schiff, who want the Pentagon’s watchdog to look into the Defense Department’s acceptance of the gifted plane and its role in the transfer. 

Trump has defended his decision to accept the jet, arguing it is legal and dismissing the bipartisan criticism as a “radical left story.”

Boeing has had a contract with the US government since Trump’s first term in 2018 to replace its pair of aging Air Force Ones, two military versions of the Boeing 747. The delivery of the aircraft has been delayed until at least 2027, a timeline Trump has latched onto in arguing the Qatari jet could serve as an interim plane.

But the gifted aircraft from Qatar would face a retrofit that could take years to complete and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, with new power systems, electrical wiring and other technology for secure communications and self-defense needed.

OPEC Plus pushing US shale producers out

OPEC Plus leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia seems to be working to take over US shale production to win back market share from the United States, reports Reuters.

OPEC's last price war on US producers 10 years ago ended in failure, as breakthroughs in technology and drilling allowed US shale companies to cut costs, compete at lower prices and in the following years take market share from the 12-member group.

US production is more vulnerable now to a price war. US shale producers have seen costs rise in the past three years. Their income is also falling due to declining global oil prices - linked in part due to the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

Reuters spoke to 10 OPEC Plus delegates and industry sources briefed by Saudi Arabia or Russia on their production strategy.

Retaking some market share is one motivation for a May 03 decision to bring back output more rapidly than previously planned, according to four of the 10 sources, though none said the strategy constituted a price war yet.

To hurt shale producers today, OPEC Plus would need to push oil prices lower than their current levels of around US$65 per barrel to around US$55, said the sources, all of whom declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

"The idea is to put a lot of uncertainty into plans by others with prices at below US$60 per barrel," said one industry source briefed on Saudi Arabia's thinking.

OPEC Plus, which includes OPEC members and fellow producers such as Russia and Kazakhstan, cited "the current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as its reasoning for the production decision.

OPEC Plus output hikes also come as the best quality shale areas in the biggest US oilfield, the Permian, have been depleted. As producers move toward secondary areas, production costs are rising. Inflation has added to those costs.

US oil production was already likely to fall this year, as top quality inventory has been drilled out, he said. And the US administration's tariff policies and the resulting volatile market have weighed heavily with bankruptcies expected across the industry, Guan added.

Earlier this month, the U.S. oil and gas rig count fell to its lowest since January, according to Baker Hughes.

Shale firm Diamondback Energy (FANG.O), opens new tab lowered its output forecast for 2025 earlier this month, saying that global economic uncertainty and rising OPEC+ supply have brought U.S. oil production to a tipping point.

 

Israel getting ready to attack Iranian nuclear facilities

The United States has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, reports CNN.

Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump. It could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East — something the US has sought to avoid since the war in Gaza started in October 2023.

Officials caution it’s not clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision, and that in fact, there is deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act. Whether and how Israel strikes will likely depend on what it thinks of the US negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program.

The chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months. The prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.

The heightened worries stem not only from public and private messaging from senior Israeli officials that it is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements that could suggest an imminent strike.

Among the military preparations the US has observed are the movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise.

Those same indicators could also simply be Israel trying to pressure Iran to abandon key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling the consequences if it doesn’t — underscoring the ever-shifting complexities the White House is navigating.

Trump has publicly threatened military action against Iran if his administration’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal to limit or eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program fail. Trump also set a limit on how long the US would engage in diplomatic efforts.

In a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for those efforts to succeed. It has now been more than 60 days since that letter was delivered, and 38 days since the first round of talks began.

A senior Western diplomat who met with the president earlier this month said that Trump communicated the US would give those negotiations only weeks to succeed before resorting to military strikes.

That has put Israel “between a rock and a hard place,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure both to avoid a US-Iran deal that Israel doesn’t view as satisfactory, while also not alienating Trump — who has already broken with the Israeli prime minister on key security issues in the region.

“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” Panikoff said, who added that he did not believe Netanyahu would be willing to risk entirely fracturing the US relationship by launching a strike without at least tacit US approval.

Iran is in its weakest military position in decades, after Israel bombed its missile production facilities and air defenses in October last year, combined with an economy weakened by sanctions and Israel’s decimation of its most powerful regional proxies. Israel.

The US is stepping up intelligence collection to be prepared to assist if Israeli leaders decide to strike, one senior US official told CNN.

A source familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told CNN the US is unlikely to help Israel carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites at this moment.

Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program without American assistance, including midair refueling and the bombs required to penetrate the facilities deep underground, a need that is also reflected in previous US intelligence reports.

An Israeli source told CNN that Israel would be prepared to carry out military action on its own if the US were to negotiate what this source described as a “bad deal” with Iran that Israel cannot accept.

It is more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal’. The Israelis have not been shy about signaling both publicly and privately.

A US intelligence assessment from February suggested Israel could use either military aircraft or long-range missiles to capitalize on Iran’s degraded air defense capabilities, CNN previously reported.

The same assessment also described how such strikes would only minimally set the Iranian nuclear program back and wouldn’t be a cure-all. “It’s a real challenge for Netanyahu,” Panikoff said.

The US talks with Iran are stuck on a demand that Tehran not enrich uranium, a process which can enable weaponization, but which is also necessary to produce nuclear power for civilian purposes.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US delegation, told ABC News over the weekend that Washington “cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability” under an agreement. “We’ve delivered a proposal to the Iranians that we think addresses some of this without disrespecting them,” he said.

Khamenei said on Tuesday that he does not expect negotiations with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program to “reach a conclusion,” calling the US demand that Iran not enrich uranium a “big mistake.”

Iran insists it has a right to enrich under the United Nations’ Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and says it will not relinquish that right under any circumstances.

Another round of talks may take place in Europe this week, according to Witkoff. Both the US and Iran have put proposals on the table, but after more than a month of the talks facilitated by Oman, there is no current US proposal with Trump’s sign-off, sources said.

US intelligence agencies in February issued warnings that Israel will likely attempt to strike facilities key to Iran’s nuclear program this year, CNN previously reported.

It has “consistently been the Israeli position that the military option is the only option to stopping Iran’s military nuclear program,” one US official noted.