Lebanon: Growing Mistrust

The stance of those who have deliberately thwarted Hezbollah’s political victory in the presidential race and who openly declare their absolute loyalty to Washington is not shocking. What is shocking, however, is the stance of Hezbollah’s so-called allies, who have shamefully submitted to the higher foreign orders.

According to the Tehran Times, this same team has expressed its concern about the anti-Hezbollah team's relentless attempt to drag Lebanon into a “civil conflict”. Hence, they have communicated with the Shiite duo in a bid to reach an understanding on forming a national cabinet capable of running Lebanon until the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026.

They further warned Judge Nawaf Salam, the prime minister-designate, to avoid “being manipulated as a tool of confronting the Shiites or the resistance (movement), and to take the initiative to expand the circle of trust in his upcoming government.”

The Saudi-American orders have dictated the renunciation of the “January 09 National Understanding” that secured the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as president after pledging not to violate political balances.

Sources confirmed that Walid Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, met Fouad Makhzoumi (the founder of the National Dialogue Party and a member of the Renewal Bloc in the Lebanese Parliament) ordering him to withdraw from his candidacy. The meeting made it clear that the nomination of MPs Makhzoumi and Ashraf Rifi was nothing but a poor play.

President Aoun has been reportedly quoted as saying, “I found myself before an international and Arab opportunity to carry out a major rescue operation. The understanding was a way to facilitate matters. As for now, I do not know how things will go.  Nevertheless, I will do my best with the prime minister-designate so that the government is not formed in a way that threatens the stability of the country.”

“We regret those who want to spoil the consensual beginning of the presidential term. It is our right to demand a ‘constitutional government’. We will monitor the steps. We are waiting – with all wisdom – and we will see their efforts to ‘expel Israel and return the prisoners’,” said Mohammad Raad, the chief of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc. Raad intended to reassure the people, amidst the growing threats, that any “rebellion” will be met with unexpected retribution that will hinder the reconstruction of what was destroyed by the US-backed Israeli aggression.

Undeniably, Lebanon’s political dilemma has reached a dangerous peak. The selection of Judge Nawaf Salam to form the upcoming cabinet was nothing but a deception that the Hezbollah and Amal Movement duo were subjected to, especially since the anti-Hezbollah team wanted this entitlement as a political gain for Washington after its aggression failed to eliminate the resistance movement.

Seemingly, this team will not stop at excluding the legitimate representatives of the Shiites from the cabinet. It will take revenge on the very existence of the Shiites in the country, simply because of their anti-imperialism stance.

 

Saudi Arabia welcomes Gaza ceasefire

According to the Saudi Gazette, Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed the Kingdom's welcome of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, commending the efforts of Qatar, Egypt, and the United States in facilitating the deal.

Saudi Arabia emphasized the importance of adhering to the agreement, calling for an end to Israeli aggression in Gaza, the full withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from the Gaza Strip and all Palestinian and Arab territories, and the return of displaced individuals to their homes.

The Kingdom further stressed the need to build on this agreement to address the root causes of the conflict.

It reaffirmed its support for the Palestinian people's rights, particularly their right to establish an independent state along the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Saudi Arabia expressed hope that this agreement would bring a permanent end to the brutal Israeli war, which has resulted in over 45,000 deaths and more than 100,000 injuries.

Earlier, Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman announced the success of mediators in reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, noting that its implementation is set to begin this Sunday.

During a press conference in Doha, Sheikh Mohammed stated that the first phase of the agreement will last 42 days and include the release of 33 Israeli detainees in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners.

He highlighted that Qatar, Egypt, and the United States “will work to ensure the implementation of the agreement,” with mechanisms in place to monitor its execution and address any potential violations.

The Qatari minister expressed his hope that “no military operations would be conducted during the period leading up to the implementation of the agreement.”

 

 

Russia and Iran to sign strategic partnership

According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will hold talks in Russia on January 17 after which they will sign a long-awaited comprehensive strategic partnership pact, the Kremlin said on Monday.

The two leaders will discuss options for further expanding ties between Moscow and Tehran, including in the trade and investment, transport and logistics, and humanitarian spheres, the Kremlin said.

Putin and Pezeshkian will also talk about regional and international issues, it added.

Russia has developed closer ties with Iran and other countries hostile towards the United States, such as North Korea, since the start of the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in October last year that Moscow and Tehran intended to sign the strategic partnership pact which would include closer defence cooperation.

The United States accused Tehran in September last year of delivering close-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on ships and companies it said were involved in delivering Iranian weapons. Tehran denies providing Moscow with the missiles.

Syria: Others Deciding Future

Key Arab and international figures gathered in Riyadh for critical meetings on the future of Syria, focusing on humanitarian and political support one month after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan chaired the Arab foreign ministers’ meeting, which included the Arab League Secretary-General, the Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General, and top diplomats from Egypt, Syria, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, Oman, Lebanon, and Bahrain.

Western foreign ministers and the UN special envoy to Syria are set to join the discussions later, alongside the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock highlighted the opportunity for unified international action to rebuild Syria, calling for a Syrian-led political process.

Speaking to reporters, she said, "A united effort for fair dialogue and reconstruction offers hope for the Syrian people."

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized his country’s support for Syria's transitional government. Lammy stressed the need for inclusive governance, humanitarian aid, and measures to counter chemical weapons and ISIS threats.

"The international community must unite to back the Syrian people as they build a democratic and diverse nation," he said, announcing plans to meet with Prince Faisal bin Farhan and other regional leaders.

Saudi officials reiterated their commitment to supporting Syria, stating that the aid bridge will remain open until humanitarian stability is achieved, under the guidance of the Saudi leadership.

This meeting follows the December summit in Aqaba, Jordan, where the Ministerial Contact Committee affirmed their commitment to standing by the Syrian people during this transformative period.

Venezuela: Maduro sworn in for third term

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose nearly 12 years in office have been marked by deep economic and social crisis, was sworn in for a third term on Friday, despite a six-month-long election dispute, international calls for him to stand aside, and an increase in the US reward offered for his capture, reports Reuters.

Maduro, president since 2013, was declared the winner of July 2024 election by both Venezuela's electoral authority and top court, though detailed tallies confirming his victory have never been published.

Venezuela's opposition says ballot box-level tallies show a landslide win for its former candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, who is recognized as president-elect by several countries, including the United States. International election observers said the vote was not democratic.

The months since the election have seen Gonzalez's flight to Spain in September, his ally Maria Corina Machado going into hiding in Venezuela, and the detentions of high-profile opposition figures and protesters.

Gonzalez has been on a whistle-stop tour of the Americas this week and had promised to return to Venezuela.

But Machado, appearing in a video posted on social media on Friday, said the moment was not right for his return.

"Edmundo will come to Venezuela to be sworn in as constitutional president of Venezuela at the right time," Machado said. "Today, it isn't viable for Edmundo to enter Venezuela. I've asked him not to do so because his integrity is fundamental for the final defeat of the regime and the transition to democracy, which is very close."

"Maduro consolidated the coup and the violation of our constitution," Machado added, calling for street protests. "It's time to do whatever is necessary to restore it."

The government, which has accused the opposition of fomenting fascist plots against it, has said Gonzalez will be arrested if he returns and offered a US$100,000 reward for information leading to his capture.

"Soon, very soon, whatever they do, we will manage to enter Venezuela and put an end to this tragedy," Gonzalez said in his own remarks from the Dominican Republic, asking the military to ignore "illegal orders" from Maduro and cease any repression.

In the latest in a series of punitive steps, the outgoing Biden administration increased its reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro on drug trafficking charges to US$25 million, from a previous US$15 million.

It also issued a US$25 million reward for Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and a US$15 million reward for Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, as well as new sanctions against eight other officials including the head of state oil company PDVSA Hector Obregon.

The US indicted Maduro and others on narcotics and corruption charges, among others, in 2020. Maduro has rejected the accusations.

The US move coincided with sanctions by Britain and the European Union, each targeting 15 officials including members of the National Electoral Council and the security forces, and Canadian sanctions targeting 14 current and former officials.

The Maduro government has always rejected all sanctions, saying they are illegitimate measures that amount to an "economic war" designed to cripple Venezuela.

"The outgoing government of the United States doesn't know how to take revenge on us," Maduro said during his inauguration speech, without directly mentioning sanctions.

The Venezuelan communications ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the sanctions, while US officials declined to comment on possible further sanctions, including on the oil industry.

Maduro and his allies have cheered what they say is the country's resilience despite the measures, though they have historically blamed some economic hardships and shortages on sanctions.

Maduro's inauguration was illegitimate, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, and the US will not recognize him as president.

"The Venezuelan people and world know the truth – Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency," Blinken said.

Later on Friday, Padrino led members of the armed forces in a separate ceremony, where they swore complete loyalty to Maduro.

 

 

PSX benchmark index declines 3.7%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility throughout the week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index posting a weekly loss of 4,339 points or 3.7%WoW to close at 113,247 points on Friday, January 10, 2025.

The volatility was led by profit taking and portfolio adjustments at year-start. Major contributing sectors to the decline in the index were Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Technology & Communication.

T-Bills yields in the recent auction declined marginally to 11.8% for the 3 to 12 months paper, implying further potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled for January 27.

Statement by the Prime Minister hinting at more room for reduction in policy rate, boosted investors’ optimism.

On the macroeconomic front, worker’s remittances for December 2024 were reported at US$3.08 billion, taking 1HFY25 remittances balance to US$17.8 billion.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decreased by US$15 million to US$11.7 billion as of January 03, 2025.

Market participation decreased significantly, with average daily traded volume declining by 25.1%WoW to 781 million shares, from one billion shares traded a week ago.

On the currency front, PKR remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) UAE rolls over US$2 billion loan, 2) Shehbaz stresses need to honor IMF commitments, 3) GoP aims to cut power tariff by up to PKR12 per unit and 4) Pakistan poised to get US$20 billion World Bank loan.

Inv. Bank/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos., Sugar & Allied Products and Real Estate were amongst the top performers, while Jute, Leasing Companies, Refinery, Oil & Gas Marketing companies and Paper & Board were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks with a net sell of US$6.2 million, Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: JDWS, MUREB, PKGP, SCBPL, and LCI, while the laggards included: PSX, PGLC, NRL, SNGP, and PKGS.

According to AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain on its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income securities to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

 

Gaza death toll grossly understated

A peer-reviewed analysis published in The Lancet on Thursday found that the official Gaza death toll reported by the enclave's Ministry of Health between October 07, 2023 and June 30, 2024 was likely a 41% undercount, a finding that underscores the devastation wrought by Israel's assault on the Palestinian territory and the difficulties of collecting accurate data amid relentless bombing.

During the period examined by the new study, Gaza's health ministry (MoH) reported that 37,877 people had been killed in Israeli attacks. But the Lancet analysis estimates that the death toll during that period was 64,260, with women, children, and the elderly accounting for nearly 60% of the deaths for which details were available. That count only includes "deaths due to traumatic injury," leaving out deaths from starvation, cold, and disease.

To reach their estimate, the authors of the new study "composed three lists from successive MoH-collected hospital morgue data, an MoH online survey, and obituaries published on public social media pages" and "manually scraped information from open-source social media platforms, including specific obituary pages for Gaza shaheed, martyrs of Gaza, and The Palestinian Information Center to create our third capture-recapture list."

"These pages are widely used obituary spaces where relatives and friends inform their networks about deaths, offer condolences and prayers, and honor people known as martyrs (those killed in war)," the authors write. "The platforms span multiple social media channels, including X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram. Throughout the study period, these pages were updated periodically and consistently, providing a comprehensive source of information on casualties. Obituaries typically included names, age at death, and date and location of death, and were often accompanied by photographs and personal stories. We translated English posts into Arabic to match names across lists and excluded deaths attributed to non-traumatic injuries."

The group of authors—which includes academics from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan—said the findings "show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied" and highlight "the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war."

Establishing an accurate count of the number of people killed in Israel's 15-month assault on the Gaza Strip, which began in the wake of a deadly Hamas-led attack, has been made extremely difficult by the Israeli military's incessant bombing and destruction of the enclave's medical infrastructure. There are also tens of thousands of people believed to be missing under the ruins of Gaza homes and buildings.

The Lancet study notes, "The escalation of Israeli military ground operations and attacks on healthcare facilities severely disrupted" Gaza officials' data-collection efforts. Prior to October 7, 2023, the MoH "had achieved good accuracy in mortality documentation, with underreporting estimated at 13%," the new analysis notes, and its figures were widely considered reliable.

Since Israel launched its catastrophic response to the Hamas-led attack, US lawmakers and leaders who have backed Israel's assault—including President Joe Biden—have openly cast doubt on the ministry's data. Currently, the MoH estimates that more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 07, 2023.

Last month, the US Congress approved a sprawling military policy bill that included a provision barring the Pentagon from publicly citing as "authoritative" death toll figures from Gaza's health ministry. Biden signed the measure into law on December 23, 2024.

"This is an alarming erasure of the suffering of the Palestinian people, ignoring the human toll of ongoing violence," Rep. Ilhan Omar, who voted against the legislation, told The Intercept following House passage of the measure.