Pakistan: All the king’s men

KING’S parties — political parties believed to have been created and nurtured by unelected forces — have a long and chequered history in Pakistan.

While some parties have developed a genuine popular following, other projects have fizzled out rather quickly. Three king’s parties suffered the latter fate in last week’s elections.

The Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP), constructed by assembling PTI deserters, was being touted as the next big thing, particularly in Punjab. Yet this prediction failed spectacularly as it managed only two National Assembly seats, also putting in a dismal performance in Punjab. Chastened by the rout, IPP supremo Jahangir Tareen retired from politics. One wonders if the IPP will survive till the next election cycle.

The PTI-Parliamentarians did worse, winning no NA seats, while the Balochistan Awami Party, created by the powers that be in 2018 and comprising mostly ex-PML-N members, was also humbled in the polls.

As mentioned, cobbling together king’s parties is not a new phenomenon. For the longest time, the name of the Muslim League — Pakistan’s grand old party — was used by military strongmen, including generals Ayub Khan and Zia, to form parties that could give their projects a civilian face.

Gen Musharraf patronised the PML-Q in 2002, carving it out of PML. But whereas the party of the Sharifs has survived, the Q-League is not a potent political force. Today, there are countless factions of the Muslim League, many of them the products of military rule, or one-man parties. In other instances, electoral alliances were carved out to keep popular parties in check, such as the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad in 1988.

Yet some parties have earned their democratic stripes, despite being products of dictatorship. The PML-N is a prime example; Nawaz Sharif began his political journey in the Zia era, but today, has a genuine following. Other than parties custom-built by the gentlemen in Rawalpindi, other political forces, while not being the king’s men, have served the purpose at critical junctures.

The MQM is one example, as it has done the bidding of the establishment at various times, and been rewarded with ‘heavy’ mandates in Karachi.

The PPP also played ball with the powers, particularly in the turbulent 1990s. These alliances with unelected forces — while serving the short-term interests of these parties — have done long-term harm to Pakistani democracy.

The only way to stave off the continuous crises that afflict Pakistani politics is for powerful quarters to stop creating and patronising political parties, and to let representatives genuinely elected by the people chart the future course of this country.

Inorganic creations have short shelf-lives and limited appeal, and despite widespread manipulation of the system, are rejected by voters. Only those political forces thrive that either turn away from their creators, or look only to the people for legitimacy.

Dawn Editorial Dated February 16, 2024

Billions for War, little for people without food

Following the passage of a US$95 billion foreign aid package that includes funding for Israel's relentless assault on Gaza, economists and policy experts this week are expressing alarm over the failure of the US Congress to ensure a federal program for low-income parents and their babies — a gap that could leave 2 million children and parents without sufficient food.

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) has never turned away eligible families in its 50-year history, but analysts say that with Congress deadlocked over whether to fully fund the program, states may soon be forced to place up to 2 million families on waiting lists—jeopardizing access to this highly effective program during an important window for child development," the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said in December last year.

The program, which has been linked to a decrease in infant and maternal mortality in the past five decades, is currently being funded by a short-term continuing resolution (CR) that Congress passed in January to keep the government running until early March.

While lawmakers have not agreed on funding for WIC, which is estimated to cost US$6.3 billion in 2024 and faces a US$1 billion shortfall, the Senate on Tuesday did pass the US$95 billion foreign aid package, including US$14.1 billion for Israel.

Israel's bombardment of Gaza has killed more than 28,000 people since October, including more than 12,000 children.

The Senate's 70-29 bipartisan vote in favor of the package, wrot defense analyst William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, "lays bare the skewed priorities of the federal government."

"Despite deep divisions, it is possible to get bipartisan support for a package that mostly involves funding weapons exports," Hartung wrote at Forbes on Wednesday.

"Don't expect any such emergency measure to address record levels of homelessness, or aid the 1 in 6 American children living in poverty, or accelerate investments in curbing the climate crisis. In the view of the administration and a majority of members of Congress, some emergencies count more than others."

At the Institute for Policy Studies, National Priorities Project director Lindsay Koshgarian pointed to WIC as a prime example of the kind of program the federal government should be prioritizing over military aid for Israel, which has garnered growing condemnation from US allies for its indiscriminate attacks on civilians.

"There's huge discrepancies in where the resources are going," Koshgarian told Al Jazeera on Wednesday. "It's an incredibly important program; there are many families that have depended on it. US$1 billion to make up the shortfall would be easy to come up with."

Last week, Democrats on the US House Education and Workforce Committee warned congressional leaders that they must ensure full funding for WIC, which "currently serves over half of all infants born in the country and continues to be a lifesaving nutrition intervention program that minimizes avoidable health and developmental issues for low-income, nutritionally at-risk women, infants, and children."

"To prevent any disruption to a program that is crucial to supporting new parents and young children, it is vital that WIC is fully funded and continues to align with projected participation and food costs," wrote the lawmakers.

The 19th reported last month that state WIC agencies are currently spending money "assuming the needed funds will eventually be appropriated."

"By early March," wrote journalist Amanda Becker, "the fiscal year will already be half over, so there will be a shorter window of time to make up any budget shortfall, potentially leading to more people being waitlisted en masse than if the shortfall was spread across a full fiscal year."

At Forbes, Hartung called on the federal government to "put less emphasis on war planning and military buildups and more on reassurance and dialogue designed to set clear rules of the road and avoid a conflict."

"If peace in the Middle East is truly a goal of this administration," he wrote, "a radical shift in priorities is urgently needed."

Courtesy: Common Dreams

The Corridor of Betrayal

On November 19, 2023 as the world was still struggling to take in the sheer brutality of Israel against Palestinians in Gaza, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei called on Islamic countries to cut ties with the regime for at least a “limited period of time” to help save Palestinian lives.

Before governments, people all over the world seemed to follow the advice in a bid to pressure Israel in any way they could. Store shelves in West Asia and beyond began to see an accumulation of Israeli products as citizens refused to spend their money to fund the genocide. Many not only avoided purchasing Israeli-produced goods but also boycotted brands associated with the regime, causing giant companies like Starbucks and MacDonald’s to suffer heavy revenue losses. 

Among Arab states, some felt obliged to act against Israeli onslaughts more than others. The biggest display of solidarity toward Palestinians was undoubtedly seen in Yemen. The impoverished country’s Ansarullah movement began to target Israeli ships in the azure depths of the Red Sea, choking off a lifeline extremely vital to Israel - the bustling port of Eliat. Yemen’s courageous stance in support of Gaza, however, did not come at a low price.

Israel’s biggest patrons, the United States and Britain, launched airstrikes against Yemeni positions saying they were acting to “protect” the interests of ordinary people. Western media outlets jumped out as stenographers, arguing that Ansarullah’s attacks in the Red Sea would eventually cause prices to surge in the West and hence needed to be dealt with. Nothing though was mentioned about the fact that only Israeli ships were getting targeted and that these attacks too would come to an end once the regime agreed not to kill Palestinians anymore. 

The Western aerial assaults on January 12, 2024 unleashed haunting echoes of years of unrelenting Saudi bombardments for Yemenis. People were reminded of a harrowing symphony that has left vast swathes of the country in ruins, and incited famine across the Arab nation. 

The people of Yemen, however, could not care less about the flashbacks they got that night.  “Honestly, I was ashamed that Palestinians in Gaza were getting bombed while I spent the night at my safe home. Now I feel less ashamed. I don’t care that we are getting attacked. All I want is to be able to help our brothers and sisters in Gaza,” said a man who had joined millions of demonstrators in Sana’a to express unyielding support for the Palestinians a day after the Western attacks.

Yemen continues to get pounded by American and British fighter jets today as it has refused to halt its operations against Israeli vessels. It hopes that by dealing economic blows to Israel, the regime would eventually have to stop its attacks on Gazans before it’s too late. 

Across the Muslim world though, Ayatollah Khamenei’s request seems to have fallen on deaf ears. After Turkey increased its shipments to the occupied territories, certain Arab countries rushed to Israel’s rescue, essentially squandering everything the Yemenis have been working for. 

Startling revelations surfaced on Israel’s Channel 13 in early February, revealing footage of how Israel bypasses Yemen’s blockade in the Red Sea with the help of three Arab countries: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It reported that hundreds of trucks of goods and fresh food were traveling from Saudi Arabia and Jordan and eventually reaching the port of Haifa in the occupied territories through Dubai. 

While the three Arab states have not yet rejected or confirmed the Israeli report, analysts believe their explanations would not make any difference anyway. 

“Most Arab states have not taken any steps to help the Palestinians. Even if they end up denying the corridor exists, people would still accuse them of inaction because they really haven’t done anything,” Ahmad Dastmalchian, Iran’s former envoy to Jordan and Lebanon, told the Tehran Times. 

The former diplomat believes that the Arab states harbor aspirations of reviving the two-state proposals in order to maintain or even enhance their relations with the Israeli regime once the war ends.

“Jordan has constraints in supporting the Palestinians due to its dependence on Washington. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making strategic mistakes here,” he explained adding that even if a Palestinian state ends up being formed, Palestinians will never accept to live alongside people who have stolen their lands and identity. 

“As long as Israel remains on occupied territories there will be resistance. So normalization with the regime is never going to work. Arabs should instead respect Palestinians’ right to self-determination and let them decide what they want to do with their ancestral lands”. 

Meanwhile, some figures in the Arab world have warned the states that passivity in the face of Israeli crimes will have far worse consequences for regional rulers than just disappointment. A renowned Egyptian journalist says the corridor amounts to Arab collusion in the Gaza genocide and could eventually send the public in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE into a furor with reverberating effects.  

“We are not asking these three countries to take the same valiant stance as the Yemenis and confront the US and British warships. But we do ask them to listen to their people who are seething over this feigned impotence,” Abdel Bari Atwan warned in an article.

 Courtesy: Tehran Times

 

Pakistan: Instability coming down the road

Pakistan’s elections held on February 08, were meant to bring stability to the country after almost two years of turmoil but the outcome of the polls has deepened political divisions. It will also bring more instability to a nuclear-armed, 240-million strong country already shaky at best in a critically important geostrategic region.

In the months leading up to the long-awaited elections, the judiciary and the military pursued a dual track strategy: ensure that the highly popular former prime minister, Imran Khan, is never able to run for political office again and reinvigorate the political fortunes of Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).

Following his loss of power in a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April 2022, Khan was relentlessly pursued by the judiciary which eventually handed him three sentences for corruption, leaking state secrets and an illegal marriage, for a total of 24 years. He was barred from politics and sent to gaol. His Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI) was disbanded, its electoral symbol (the cricket bat) outlawed, and its members banned from running as PTI members.

Nawaz Sharif—a convicted corrupt politician who’s had an ambivalent relationship with the army for 40 years, was brought back from a four-year self-exile in London as an alternative to Khan. Soon after Nawaz’s return to Pakistan the corruption charges he faced were dropped and his life ban from politics was lifted.

The path was now clear for his smooth return to power. However, what was meant to be a walk in the park for Nawaz and the PML(N) turned out very differently on election day. The millions of pro-Imran Khan supporters were not interested in singing off the score sheet handed over to them.

Even with all the measures taken to ensure there was no level playing field, and the ballot stuffing at a number of polling stations, the PML(N), was only able to win the second largest number of seats (75).

The former PTI members—running as independents—won the largest number of seats, 93 of the 266 up for grabs. The independents’ total seats could increase as they are contesting the result of over a dozen others they claim have been stolen from them. Nevertheless, Nawaz declared victory, and will try—with great difficulty, to form a coalition government with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto. The only bond between the PML(N) and the PPP is that their hatred of each other is slightly less than their hatred of the PTI.

International reaction to these elections, including from the US, the UK and the EU, was negative, with several countries calling for investigations into the allegations of vote-tempering and pre-poll obstructions. The Australian government also made it clear that that it was concerned that ‘the Pakistani people were restricted in their choice, since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections’.

Notwithstanding the evidence to the contrary, much of it posted on social media platforms even though mobile internet connections were restricted, the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir, commended the Electoral Commission for running such a successful election and stressed the significance of free and unhindered participation by Pakistani people in exercising their right to vote.

Similarly, the caretaker prime minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, believed that the ‘nation had accepted the results’ and the country needed to move on. Moreover, he brushed aside international criticism of the elections as ‘not that big a deal’.

Despite the compromised nature of these polls, a PML(N)-led coalition government is the most likely—but not certain—outcome of the elections. According to the latest reports, it would be led by Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother who was prime minister after Khan was ousted in April 2022.

The real power will still be held behind the scenes by Nawaz Sharif. Given the fragility of the coalition, which will include smaller parties and non-PTI-leaning independents, this will be a weak government with little legitimacy. This is unfortunate given that whoever is prime minister will have to make some particularly difficult decisions on the economy, handle adroitly the country’s foreign relations, and manage a growing terrorist threat.

Pakistan is an economic mess, with 40% of the population living under the poverty line, an inflation rate that has hit 30%, a rupee whose value has halved in 10 years, and barely enough foreign exchange to cover the cost of imports for a month or so.

The country avoided economic meltdown in August 2023 by securing a standby arrangement of US$3 billion with the IMF. However, this bailout runs out in March and a new one—the 24th in Pakistan’s history—will need to be negotiated.

The IMF will undoubtedly demand that the government implement more austerity measures, including continuing to reduce subsidies on essential commodities. Imposing draconian economic measures on an already struggling population will not be easy, particularly given Nawaz’s lack of popular support. We can expect serious social unrest down the road.

A Shehbaz-led government will also have to deal with the growing terrorist threat, mainly but not solely from the Afghanistan-based Pakistan Taliban (TTP), which has continued to increase since the Taliban took over in neighbouring Afghanistan in August 2021. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that the Taliban government of Afghanistan cease to support the TTP. But the Taliban isn’t about to turn on the TTP, an organisation with which it has deep ideological, operational, historical and tribal links. Kabul also knows that the Pakistani military doesn’t want to escalate this issue by pursuing the TTP unto Afghan territory. Moreover, given Pakistan’s poor fiscal position, it cannot afford another expensive military operation. Accordingly, Pakistan-Afghan relations will probably continue to be frozen, and the scourge of terrorism to fester.

This will not be well received by the leaders in Beijing who persistently press Pakistan to do more against the terrorists roaming the countryside regularly killing Chinese workers and officials working on the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).  Pakistan already has some 10,000 security personnel dedicated solely to the protection of Chinese interests in Pakistan. Still, relations with China will continue on an even keel or even deepen. It was after all under Nawaz’s third stint (2013-2018), that CPEC started.

Pakistanis can expect Indo-Pakistan relations to possibly improve. The personal dynamics between Nawaz and Indian PM Narendra Modi have been good in the past. Nawaz attended Modi’s 2014 inauguration and Modi visited Nawaz in Lahore in December 2015—the first visit by an Indian leader in more than a decade. But while Nawaz would probably be interested in improving relations with Delhi, it was the perception that he was warming up too much to the Indians when he was in power which critically contributed to the military orchestrating his downfall in 2017. Shehbaz, under the guidance of Nawaz, is unlikely to make the same mistake.

Despite Washington’s public criticism of Pakistan’s seriously flawed election, the Biden administration is committed to ‘strengthening its security cooperation’ with Islamabad regardless as to who eventually becomes prime minister. Pakistan continues to be a valuable regional partner, being in a unique position to monitor developments in Afghanistan.

Finally, whilst Washington may have had issues with the election process, it will absolutely not miss Imran Khan, who repeatedly accused the US of having been instrumental, with the help of Pakistan’s military, in his downfall in April 2022.

US Secretary of State meeting with General Asim Munir—the man who effectively runs Pakistan, in Washington only a few weeks before the elections only reinforced this common perception in Pakistan. However, given Munir’s massive miscalculation on the elections, his days may well be numbered.

How long the next prime minister will last in office is anyone’s guess, but given that no prime minister has ever completed their term in Pakistan’s 75-year history, it is suspect the odds are poor that Shehbaz Sharif will break that tradition.

Courtesy: The Strategist

 

Pakistan: Two rival parties agree to form new government

Reportedly, Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto's parties in Pakistan have reached a deal to form a government. Bhutto's PPP said it would help Sharif's PML-N elect a prime minister after last week's election. The two parties were previously in a coalition that ousted Imran Khan from power in 2022.

This time, independent candidates backed by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party unexpectedly won the most seats.

PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari told a press conference that although his party and PML-N had contested elections against each other, they had come together in the interests of the nation.

"It is not necessary that [we fight] forever," Zardari said.

The PML-N said in a statement that both parties had agreed to cooperate in the interests of political stability.

The results, in which independents backed by the PTI took 93 out of 266 directly elected seats, had left voters uncertain about which parties would form the next government.

Sharif's PML-N won 75 seats while Bhutto's PPP came third with 54 seats.

In addition, parties will be allocated more seats from the 70 reserved for women and non-Muslims. These additional seats are not available to independent candidates.

According to PML-N Marriyum Aurangzeb, party leader Nawaz Sharif plans to nominate his brother Shehbaz to be prime minister. Both men have previously served as prime minister.

Bhutto says his party will help elect a PML-N prime minister, he earlier said it would not take any cabinet positions.

Imran Khan and his party have continued to emphasize that they believe the elections were rigged against them and plan to challenge the results.

Khan said, "I warn against the misadventure of forming a government with stolen votes. Such daylight robbery will not only be disrespect to the citizens but will also push the country's economy further into a downward spiral."

 

Netherlands to supply drones to Ukraine

The Netherlands is joining a military coalition with allies including Britain that will supply Ukraine with advanced drone technology and bolster its offensive capabilities in the war against Russia, the Dutch defence minister said.

The pledge from the Netherlands comes in addition to F-16 fighter jets, artillery, ammunition and air defence systems provided by the Dutch to Kyiv.

For the Netherlands, there may be additional costs on top of 2 billion euros earmarked already for 2024, Dutch Defence Minister Kasja Ollongren told Reuters in an interview ahead of two days of NATO defence ministers’ meetings in Brussels starting on Wednesday.

"We know of course that drones are very important in this war," Ollongren said. "That's why we are joining the drone coalition that Ukraine has started together with Latvia, together with other countries, to make sure that we do just that - increase production, use the latest technology and to provide exactly what Ukraine needs."

Ukraine's Defence Ministry announced Britain's participation last month.

Drones have become a crucial part of both Ukraine and Russia's wartime strategies for reconnaissance and striking targets, thanks in large part to their relatively low cost.

Both sides are now using thousands of small, inexpensive drones originally built for enthusiasts and racers to conduct battlefield-level surveillance and attacks, while also growing their fleets of larger, longer-distance unmanned craft which can fly much further and carry heavier cameras or more explosives.

Both Britain and the Netherlands had already been helping Ukraine build out its drone fleet.

"What is new is that we are now forming this coalition. So we're connecting, let's say, the things that we're doing separately into one coalition that will be able to respond to the new demands of Ukraine, as they see the battle developing on the frontline. And I think that's the strength of this coalition," she said at her offices in The Hague.

Ukraine intends to manufacture thousands of long-range drones capable of deep strikes into Russia in 2024 and already has up to 10 companies working on production, Ukraine's digital minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, said in a Reuters interview on Monday.

By working together, the coalition will be able to respond to Kyiv's changing wartime tactics.

"And I think that's going to be the strength of this coalition, to be able to provide in the very short term what they need," she said.

Ollongren said the Netherlands will contribute high-tech expertise from the commercial sector, but declined to provide technical or financial details.

 

Israeli plan to evacuate Rafah civilians

Egyptian officials have shared details of Israel’s alleged plan to evacuate Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where 1.3 million Palestinians are sheltering.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on February 13 that the plan calls for displaced Palestinians to be concentrated in the western area of the enclave, within the coastal strip, along the sea.

Israel says it will establish 15 camp villages along the coast between Rafah and Gaza City in central Gaza. The areas included are south of Al-Mawasi and Sharm Park. Each camp will be equipped with 25,000 tents.

Egyptian officials say that Israel expects the camps, which would include medical facilities, to be funded by the US and Arab states.

However, it is unlikely that over 1 million people could be safely evacuated. 

Nadia Hardman, a refugee and migrant rights researcher at Human Rights Watch, stated, “Forcing the over one million displaced Palestinians in Rafah to again evacuate without a safe place to go would be unlawful and would have catastrophic consequences. There is nowhere safe to go in Gaza.”

If Israel proceeds with the offensive, its army will disrupt the already minimal aid entering Gaza and cause extensive destruction in Rafah, as it previously did in Gaza City and Khan Yunis. These action would exacerbate the uninhabitable conditions in Gaza, both during and after the war.

If Palestinians in Gaza are increasingly concentrated in tent camps along a tiny strip on Gaza’s coast, with no homes to return to, no functioning hospitals, and little food and humanitarian aid, this will enable Israel’s efforts to force Gaza’s population to ‘voluntarily’ flee to Egypt by land or other third parties by sea.

Israeli leaders have stated they wish to make life so difficult and dangerous for Palestinians in Gaza that the most humanitarian solution for them will be to leave Gaza and allow Israel to take it over for Jewish settlement.

The situation would resemble 1948, when Zionist militias forced Palestinians from Haifa to flee north to Lebanon by land and by boat from the city’s port.

While Gaza is on the brink of famine, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces criticism from his far-right allies for allowing any aid at all, the WSJ reported further.

“The minimal aid we committed to is an important condition for the continuation of the war because if there is a large humanitarian collapse, we can’t continue the war,” he told reporters last week.

Israel in December reopened its Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza to allow the UN and NGOs to increase aid. However, right-wing protesters have repeatedly blocked humanitarian convoys at the crossing, and the Israeli army has not taken any action to remove them.