The Corridor of Betrayal

On November 19, 2023 as the world was still struggling to take in the sheer brutality of Israel against Palestinians in Gaza, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei called on Islamic countries to cut ties with the regime for at least a “limited period of time” to help save Palestinian lives.

Before governments, people all over the world seemed to follow the advice in a bid to pressure Israel in any way they could. Store shelves in West Asia and beyond began to see an accumulation of Israeli products as citizens refused to spend their money to fund the genocide. Many not only avoided purchasing Israeli-produced goods but also boycotted brands associated with the regime, causing giant companies like Starbucks and MacDonald’s to suffer heavy revenue losses. 

Among Arab states, some felt obliged to act against Israeli onslaughts more than others. The biggest display of solidarity toward Palestinians was undoubtedly seen in Yemen. The impoverished country’s Ansarullah movement began to target Israeli ships in the azure depths of the Red Sea, choking off a lifeline extremely vital to Israel - the bustling port of Eliat. Yemen’s courageous stance in support of Gaza, however, did not come at a low price.

Israel’s biggest patrons, the United States and Britain, launched airstrikes against Yemeni positions saying they were acting to “protect” the interests of ordinary people. Western media outlets jumped out as stenographers, arguing that Ansarullah’s attacks in the Red Sea would eventually cause prices to surge in the West and hence needed to be dealt with. Nothing though was mentioned about the fact that only Israeli ships were getting targeted and that these attacks too would come to an end once the regime agreed not to kill Palestinians anymore. 

The Western aerial assaults on January 12, 2024 unleashed haunting echoes of years of unrelenting Saudi bombardments for Yemenis. People were reminded of a harrowing symphony that has left vast swathes of the country in ruins, and incited famine across the Arab nation. 

The people of Yemen, however, could not care less about the flashbacks they got that night.  “Honestly, I was ashamed that Palestinians in Gaza were getting bombed while I spent the night at my safe home. Now I feel less ashamed. I don’t care that we are getting attacked. All I want is to be able to help our brothers and sisters in Gaza,” said a man who had joined millions of demonstrators in Sana’a to express unyielding support for the Palestinians a day after the Western attacks.

Yemen continues to get pounded by American and British fighter jets today as it has refused to halt its operations against Israeli vessels. It hopes that by dealing economic blows to Israel, the regime would eventually have to stop its attacks on Gazans before it’s too late. 

Across the Muslim world though, Ayatollah Khamenei’s request seems to have fallen on deaf ears. After Turkey increased its shipments to the occupied territories, certain Arab countries rushed to Israel’s rescue, essentially squandering everything the Yemenis have been working for. 

Startling revelations surfaced on Israel’s Channel 13 in early February, revealing footage of how Israel bypasses Yemen’s blockade in the Red Sea with the help of three Arab countries: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It reported that hundreds of trucks of goods and fresh food were traveling from Saudi Arabia and Jordan and eventually reaching the port of Haifa in the occupied territories through Dubai. 

While the three Arab states have not yet rejected or confirmed the Israeli report, analysts believe their explanations would not make any difference anyway. 

“Most Arab states have not taken any steps to help the Palestinians. Even if they end up denying the corridor exists, people would still accuse them of inaction because they really haven’t done anything,” Ahmad Dastmalchian, Iran’s former envoy to Jordan and Lebanon, told the Tehran Times. 

The former diplomat believes that the Arab states harbor aspirations of reviving the two-state proposals in order to maintain or even enhance their relations with the Israeli regime once the war ends.

“Jordan has constraints in supporting the Palestinians due to its dependence on Washington. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making strategic mistakes here,” he explained adding that even if a Palestinian state ends up being formed, Palestinians will never accept to live alongside people who have stolen their lands and identity. 

“As long as Israel remains on occupied territories there will be resistance. So normalization with the regime is never going to work. Arabs should instead respect Palestinians’ right to self-determination and let them decide what they want to do with their ancestral lands”. 

Meanwhile, some figures in the Arab world have warned the states that passivity in the face of Israeli crimes will have far worse consequences for regional rulers than just disappointment. A renowned Egyptian journalist says the corridor amounts to Arab collusion in the Gaza genocide and could eventually send the public in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE into a furor with reverberating effects.  

“We are not asking these three countries to take the same valiant stance as the Yemenis and confront the US and British warships. But we do ask them to listen to their people who are seething over this feigned impotence,” Abdel Bari Atwan warned in an article.

 Courtesy: Tehran Times

 

Trump authorized Israeli sovereignty in West Bank

According to The Jerusalem Post, former US president Donald Trump authorized then-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex parts of the West Bank.

In a three-page letter dated January 26, 2020, two days before Trump presented his Vision for Peace in the White House, he summarized some of its details. These included that Israel would be able to extend sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, as delineated in the map included in the plan if Netanyahu agreed to a Palestinian state in the remaining territory on that map.

Trump asked Netanyahu to adopt “the policies outlined in... the Vision [for peace] regarding those territories of the West Bank identified as becoming part of a future Palestinian state.”

In exchange for Israel implementing these policies, the US president continued, and formally adopted detailed territorial plans not inconsistent with the Conceptual Map. The letter did not delineate a timeline for sovereignty recognition.

Netanyahu’s response said that Israel would move forward with sovereignty plans in the coming days.

The letter calls into question the narrative set out in Breaking History: A White House Memoir, a new book by Trump's son-in-law and former senior adviser Jared Kushner.

In it, Kushner asserts that former US ambassador to Israel David Friedman went behind his and the president’s back and assured Bibi that he would get the White House to support annexation more immediately.

Friedman and Netanyahu viewed the matter differently, Netanyahu’s spokesman said, “The charge that Netanyahu surprised the president and his staff with an uncoordinated announcement... is utterly baseless.”

Trump's Special Representative for International Negotiations Jason Greenblatt said that during his time in the White House, he always understood from former Prime Minister Netanyahu that US recognition of the extension of Israel’s sovereignty over those areas intended to be part of Israel contemplated by the peace plan released by President Trump was necessary for Netanyahu to agree to our proposed peace plan.

David Friedman was part of most, perhaps all, of those discussions and I believe he understood that clearly as well. I was no longer working at the White House at the time the peace plan was released. 

A Trump administration source closely involved with the president's letter said, "It was a key part of Israel's acceptance of the Vision for Peace as the framework for negotiations with the Palestinians for America to accept sovereignty up front, as per the mapping process and the plan, and for all the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley to be included.

Trump said in his speech – which Kushner said he read and reviewed with the president before delivery, “The United States will recognize Israeli sovereignty over the territory that my vision provides to be part of the State of Israel.

Trump said Israel and the US would work together to convert the conceptual map into a more detailed and calibrated rendering so that recognition can be immediately achieved.

“We will also work to create a contiguous territory within the future Palestinian state for when the conditions for statehood are met, including the firm rejection of terrorism,” Trump said.

“You are recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over all the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria, large and small alike,” he said. “Mr. President, because of this historic recognition, and because I believe your peace plan strikes the right balance where other plans have failed, I’ve agreed to negotiate peace with the Palestinians on the basis of your peace plan.

“Israel wants the Palestinians... to have a future of national dignity, prosperity, and hope. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians such a future. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians a pathway to a future state,” Netanyahu said.

“Israel wants the Palestinians... to have a future of national dignity, prosperity, and hope. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians such a future. Your peace plan offers the Palestinians a pathway to a future state.”

The prime minister also said, “We looks forward to working with you to achieve a peace that will protect Israel’s security, provide the Palestinians with dignity and their own national life, and improve Israel’s relations with the Arab world.”

Immediately after the speeches, Netanyahu said he would bring the extension of Israeli sovereignty over parts of the West Bank to a cabinet vote the following week. Then-ambassador to Israel David Friedman told the media that Israel could start work toward annexation the moment it completed its internal process.

In Friedman’s book, Sledgehammer, released earlier this year, the ambassador wrote that the Trump administration did not know that Netanyahu already had the Jordan Valley mapped out for annexation. Netanyahu’s spokesman said, the prime minister’s letter to Trump in advance of the White House event specified that he would move forward in a matter of days.

The Trump administration source involved with the letter said that the dispute was only whether sovereignty moves could be made within a few days or weeks. Kushner himself told journalists at the UN days after the plan was presented that the mapping teams will take a couple of months before annexation moves forward.

Kushner also repeatedly claimed in the book that he struggled to convince Bibi, a master negotiator, to agree to a compromise that would give tangible life improvements to the Palestinians."

In contrast, Netanyahu conceded that a Palestinian state would be established. In addition, Friedman said Netanyahu agreed not to allow Israeli construction in the areas earmarked for the Palestinians in the plan's map. 

Ukraine may force Middle Eastern rivals to upgrade their toolkit

According to an article by James Dorsey, struggling to remain on the sidelines of the 21st century’s watershed war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern nations are discovering that they may be fighting their battles with an outdated toolkit.

As a result, the Ukraine war could saw off the legs from under the table of Middle Eastern détente that already are built on shaky ground.

For the past 18 months, Middle Eastern rivals – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and Israel – have sought to hedge their bets by diversifying their relationships with major powers, the United States, China, and/or Russia.

Increasingly, the rivals are finding out that the Ukraine conflict threatens to narrow their ability to hedge. The conflict has, irrespective of the outcome of the war, reduced not only big power competition to a two- rather than three-horse race but also opened the door to Cold War-style international relations based on the principle of ‘you are with us or against us.’

Even if portraying the Ukraine conflict as a showdown in a titanic battle between democracy and autocracy may be misleading and/or overstated, it does not distract from the fact that the war has shaken, if not undermined, a major pillar of autocracy, Russia.

Even so, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel may privately welcome potential Russian sabotage of negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement, given that they view it as deeply flawed. Middle Eastern states may also find that the sabotage is one of Moscow’s last hurrahs as it is hit by harsh Western sanctions and drawn into what is likely to be an all-consuming quagmire.

As fears grew of a Russian monkey wrench, Iranian Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended Iran’s support of militias in various Arab countries, including the Houthis in Yemen who have been firing missiles and drones at targets in the two countries. On Thursday, a Houthi drone attacked a refinery in Riyadh, causing a small fire.

“Our presence in regional issues is our strategic depth… (It’s) a means of power,”  Khamenei told Iran’s Council of Experts that includes the country’s most powerful clerics.

Turkey and Israel have so far been able to package their hedge by exploiting their close ties to both Russia and Ukraine to play the role of mediator even if mediation at this stage of the war has little if any chance of success.

By contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE find themselves far more exposed and in the ironic position of sharing a boat with their nemeses, Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, as they maneuver in a geopolitical minefield. Like the conservative Gulf states, Iran too has sought to remain on the sidelines of the Ukraine conflict.

More fundamentally, the conflict could upset the house of cards on which Middle Eastern détente is built. The driving principle of that détente is to kick the can down the road on significant disagreements over issues, including political Islam and Palestine in favour of closer economic, and in the case of Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Qatar, closer security cooperation.

This week, Israel Defense Forces chief Aviv Kohavi reportedly discussed military cooperation with his Qatari counterpart, Salem bin Hamad bin Mohammed bin Aqeel Al-Nabi, during an official visit to Bahrain. Unlike Bahrain and the UAE, Qatar has refused to formalize its informal relations with Israel as long as there is no settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine resonates among the Gulf’s smaller states, three of which know first-hand what bullying by larger neighbours in violation of international law means. Iran has occupied three Emirati islands in the Gulf since 1971. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 while fears of a military intervention accompanied a 3.5 year-long Saudi-UAE-led economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar.

This week, Washington Post columnist Farid Zakaria argued that the Ukraine conflict has ushered in a new era “marked by the triumph of politics over economics. For the past three decades, most countries have acted with one lodestar in mind: economic growth. They have embraced trade, technology, and domestic reforms, all to produce more growth. Those kinds of choices are possible in an atmosphere in which one does not have to worry that much about the core issue of national security.”

That could be as true for the Middle East as it is for much of the world, particularly if sitting on the fence becomes less of an option and fault lines sharpen if the Vienna talks fail.

Already, the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed, may find that they overplayed their cards when they allegedly refused to take a phone call from US President Joe  Biden to discuss cooperation in increasing oil production to reduce prices.

Mr. Biden ultimately spoke to King Salman, with Mr. Bin Salman listening in although not participating. Mr. Biden had earlier offered to talk with Mr. Bin Salman, breaking a boycott of the crown prince because of his alleged involvement in the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Mr. Bin Zayed is proving to be the most overexposed. The UAE has already begun to dither on the oil production with its powerful ambassador in Washington, Yusuf al-Otaiba, suggesting that the Emirates was considering a hike, only for Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei to reiterate the country’s commitment to current OPEC+ production levels.

Emirati officials insisted that the two statements were not contradictory. They said the UAE favoured a production increase but was bound by OPEC+ agreements. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on March 31.

The manoeuvre was partly an Emirati effort to cover the country’s flank and partly a demonstration of the UAE’s ability to help reduce prices. Oil prices dropped 13 per cent after Mr. Al-Otaiba’s remarks.

The influx of Russians looking for places to safely park their money and assets; leaks about real estate holding of oligarchs in Dubai, including ones belonging to now sanctioned individuals; stepped-up private aircraft traffic between Moscow and Dubai, and the sighting of Russian-owned superyachts off the UAE coast could not come at a worse time.

Earlier this month, the Financial Action Task Force, a Paris-based international anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism finance watchdog, grey listed the UAE for lagging in identifying illicit funds flowing into the country. The listing that groups the UAE alongside 22 others, including Pakistan, Syria, South Sudan, Yemen, and Myanmar, dealt a blow to the country’s image as a go-to global financial hub.

 “What separates Dubai from other traditional havens for dirty money is the amazing secrecy. As a fugitive in Dubai, you can snatch up property, stash your yachts and set up bank accounts with very few obstacles. It’s also one of the few autocracies that’s a destination — rather than a transit location — for illicit flows,” said Jodi Vittori, who co-authored a study of Dubai’s financial flows.