Monday, 29 December 2025

Netanyahu’s Washington Visit: Strategy, Sponsorship, and Shared Responsibility

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United States is being portrayed as routine strategic coordination. In reality, it reflects a deeper convergence in which Washington is no longer a distant mediator but a principal enabler of Israel’s expanding regional agenda. The visit highlights not only Israeli ambitions, but also America’s sustained military, intelligence, and diplomatic sponsorship.

At the center of discussions lies Iran. Israel’s objective has clearly shifted from containment to systematic degradation of Iran’s strategic capabilities—nuclear latency, missile production, drones, and proxy networks. This transition would be impossible without continued US arms supplies, intelligence sharing, and political cover. While Washington publicly warns against escalation, its steady flow of advanced weaponry and repeated shielding of Israel at international forums effectively signal consent rather than restraint.

Regime change in Iran remains a sensitive phrase in Washington, but prolonged destabilization appears to be the preferred substitute. Cyber operations, economic pressure, and covert actions designed to exploit Iran’s internal vulnerabilities fit comfortably within a grey-zone strategy that allows plausible deniability. Western intelligence agencies may not openly own such operations, but coordination and silence often speak louder than formal declarations.

Saudi normalization remains another Israeli objective, though the Gaza war has made recognition politically costly for Riyadh. Netanyahu’s calculation is that the United States can again absorb the pressure—offering security guarantees and strategic incentives to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In doing so, Washington risks further eroding its credibility across the Arab and Muslim world by prioritizing geopolitical bargains over public sentiment.

In Syria, Israel already enjoys near-unrestricted freedom of action, facilitated by US political backing and Russia’s strategic distraction. The goal now is to institutionalize strategic denial—preventing Iranian re-entrenchment and treating Syrian sovereignty as expendable in the pursuit of regional dominance.

Lebanon presents a similar pattern. Israel’s posture toward Hezbollah appears to be shifting from deterrence to attrition, with Washington focused on managing escalation rather than preventing it. Proposals to revise UNIFIL’s mandate or force Hezbollah north of the Litani risk dragging Lebanon into another devastating cycle.

Ultimately, Netanyahu’s visit is less about crisis management than about reaffirming a permissive American environment—one that allows Israel to act forcefully while the United States absorbs diplomatic costs. As Washington continues to arm, shield, and enable Israel, it also assumes responsibility for the instability that follows.

Sunday, 28 December 2025

Israel to Seek US Help in Another Round of War with Iran

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu travels to Mar-a-Lago to meet US President Donald Trump, reports suggest the visit is less about diplomacy and more about reigniting confrontation with Iran. Despite growing friction between Netanyahu and Trump’s advisers, the Israeli leader is expected to press Washington to support, or directly participate in, another round of military escalation.

According to NBC News, Netanyahu plans to argue that Iran’s expanding ballistic missile program presents an urgent threat requiring swift action. He is expected to present Trump with options for US involvement in potential military operations. Analysts, however, view this shift in emphasis with skepticism. Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy notes that Netanyahu’s focus on missiles appears to be an attempt to manufacture a new casus belli after the collapse of the nuclear argument.

This inconsistency has drawn criticism even within Israel. Yair Golan, leader of Israel’s center-left Democrats party, questioned how Netanyahu could declare a “historic victory” last June—claiming Iran’s nuclear threat and missile capabilities had been neutralized—only to return months later seeking US approval to strike Iran again.

Iran will not be the only issue on the agenda. Israeli officials indicate Netanyahu will also push Trump to harden his stance on Gaza, demanding Hamas’s disarmament before any further Israeli troop withdrawals under the second phase of Trump’s peace plan. This comes amid mounting US frustration over Israel’s repeated violations of the October ceasefire.

While Trump has sought to cultivate a peacemaker image, Israel’s actions on the ground have complicated that narrative. Near-daily Israeli strikes have reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians, while a sustained blockade has left hundreds of thousands displaced, exposed to winter conditions, and deprived of adequate food, fuel, and medicine.

Trump’s advisers, according to Axios, increasingly fear Netanyahu is deliberately undermining the peace process to keep the conflict alive. Beyond Gaza, Netanyahu is also expected to seek continued US backing for Israel’s territorial expansion in Syria and renewed latitude to escalate against Hezbollah in Lebanon—both areas where Israeli actions have already strained US policy objectives.

As Toossi argues, Netanyahu’s visit reflects not a strategy to resolve crises but to defer accountability. The meeting’s outcome will test whether Washington continues to underwrite open-ended escalation—or begins to draw clearer limits around Israel’s regional ambitions.

Saturday, 27 December 2025

Remembering Dr Shamshad Akhtar

Dr Shamshad Akhtar’s passing marks the end of an era in Pakistan’s economic and financial history. She was not merely a technocrat of rare caliber; she was a steady moral compass in moments when the country’s financial system stood at critical crossroads. Her life was defined by discipline, intellect, and an unwavering commitment to institutional integrity—qualities that are all too scarce in public life.

As Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, Dr Akhtar played a historic role in strengthening monetary governance and safeguarding macroeconomic stability during a period of global uncertainty and domestic pressures. She believed deeply in rule-based policymaking, central bank independence, and prudent regulation—principles she defended with quiet firmness rather than public theatrics. Under her stewardship, the SBP emerged as a more credible, resilient, and professionally anchored institution.

Her contribution did not end there. As Chairperson of the Pakistan Stock Exchange, she brought the same clarity of purpose and ethical rigor to capital markets. At a time when speculation often overshadowed substance, Dr Akhtar consistently advocated transparency, investor confidence, and long-term market development. She understood that markets thrive not on hype, but on trust—and she worked tirelessly to nurture that trust.

On a personal level, Dr Shamshad Akhtar commanded respect without demanding it. She carried herself with grace, intellectual humility, and an unshakeable sense of responsibility to the public good. She inspired younger professionals—especially women—by demonstrating that excellence, not patronage, is the true currency of leadership. Her presence reassured colleagues that professionalism still had a place in Pakistan’s policy circles.

Dr Akhtar’s legacy will endure in the institutions she strengthened and the standards she set. In a system often vulnerable to expediency, she stood for consistency. In an environment prone to excess, she represented restraint. Pakistan has lost not just a former central bank governor or market regulator, but a guardian of financial discipline.

May her soul rest in peace. Her contributions will be remembered long after the noise of the moment fades, etched quietly but firmly into the country’s economic history.

 

 


Remembering Benazir Bhutto: A Trailblazer of Pakistani Politics

Benazir Bhutto made history as the first woman to lead a Muslim-majority country, breaking barriers in a world where political leadership was overwhelmingly male-dominated. Her election as Prime Minister of Pakistan was not just a personal triumph but a beacon of possibility for women across the Muslim world. With extraordinary vision, intellect, and charisma, she inspired millions to believe that courage and determination could overcome entrenched societal and political limitations. She was a leader who combined elegance with tenacity, compassion with political acumen, and ambition with a commitment to justice and democracy.

On December 27, 2007, the world lost this remarkable figure when she was assassinated, sending shockwaves across Pakistan and the international community. Her death marked a tragic end to a life devoted to political reform, social justice, and the fight for democracy.

Born into Pakistan’s political elite, Benazir inherited a legacy of leadership and activism from her father, former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. She emerged as a formidable force in Pakistani politics in the 1970s and 1980s, defying patriarchal norms and military authoritarianism. Twice elected Prime Minister, in 1988 and 1993, she pursued ambitious reforms aimed at modernizing Pakistan, empowering women, and advancing social development. Her tenure, however, was fraught with challenges, including political opposition, allegations of corruption, and a volatile geopolitical environment that tested her resilience.

Bhutto’s assassination, in a country already reeling from political unrest, triggered widespread chaos and violence. Hundreds lost their lives in the aftermath, with reports of atrocities compounding the national tragedy. Despite her party’s participation in government and her husband Asif Ali Zardari’s presidency, the masterminds behind her killing remain unpunished, casting a long shadow over Pakistan’s justice system. Analysts continue to debate the motives behind her murder, from internal power struggles to broader geopolitical forces at play during that era.

Yet, beyond the controversies and tragedy, Benazir Bhutto’s legacy endures. She remains a symbol of courage, resilience, and the relentless pursuit of democratic ideals in the face of adversity. Her vision and leadership continue to inspire generations of Pakistanis, especially women, to dream without limits. Her life and untimely death serve as a reminder of both the dangers of challenging entrenched power and the enduring impact of a leader who dared to transform history.

Friday, 26 December 2025

Epstein Case highlights Collapse of Moral Authority

The Jeffrey Epstein affair is not merely a criminal scandal; it is an exposure of systemic rot within the US power structure. For more than three decades, a private island—Little Saint James—functioned as a protected enclave where influential figures from Western politics, finance, technology, and culture operated beyond law and scrutiny. This was not an accidental blind spot but a sustained failure enabled by privilege, power, and institutional silence.

Epstein’s operation preyed on teenage and underage girls through an organized trafficking network that spanned borders and social classes. Despite repeated investigations and mounting evidence, he escaped serious accountability for years. Such prolonged impunity was not the result of legal incompetence alone. It reflected protection—explicit or implicit—from within the highest echelons of the system he served.

When Epstein was finally arrested in mid-2019, expectations of a reckoning briefly surfaced. They were swiftly extinguished. His death in federal custody—officially declared a suicide—occurred under conditions that defied standard security protocols. Given the number of powerful individuals implicated, public skepticism was inevitable and justified. The belief that Epstein was silenced to prevent wider exposure has since become embedded in public consciousness.

Subsequent government conduct only reinforced suspicion. Congressional pressure forced partial disclosures, yet key documents were withheld or re-redacted, undermining claims of transparency. Under the Trump administration, selective leaks appeared designed less to uncover truth than to manage political fallout—diverting attention toward rivals while distancing allies. This was narrative control, not justice.

What remains most troubling is not what is known, but what appears implausible to dismiss. An operation of this scale—global in reach, durable across administrations, and populated by high-value individuals—could not have existed in isolation.

History demonstrates that intelligence services routinely exploit sexual entrapment and kompromat as tools of leverage. Whether through direct involvement, tacit tolerance, or post-facto exploitation, the notion that Epstein’s enterprise existed entirely outside intelligence interest strains credulity.

Was Little Saint James merely a den of elite depravity, or a controlled environment with strategic utility? Was Epstein the architect—or merely a facilitator? These questions persist because no authority has convincingly answered them.

Ultimately, the Epstein case exposes a deeper hypocrisy. A state that postures as the global arbiter of morality and human rights has revealed its own elite to be insulated from consequence. The truth may never fully surface, but the convergence of power, corruption, and silence is now impossible to deny.

PSX benchmark index closes at an all-time high of 172,401

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced volatility throughout the week, driven by portfolio adjustments and realignments at year-end. However, the bullish momentum prevailed on the continuation of investor optimism amid recent 50bps rate cut announced by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Benchmark index gained 996 points to close at an all-time high of 172,401 points, reflecting an increase of 0.6%WoW.

Market participation weakened by 3.5%WoW due to average daily traded volume falling to 1.1 billion shares, as compared to 1.2 billion shares in the prior week.

The Government of Pakistan successfully executed the privatization of the national carrier, PIA, with a consortium led by the Arif Habib Group emerging as the winning bidder for the acquisition of a 75% stake.

T-bills yields declined on one-month, 3-months, 6-months and 12-months paper, on the first auction after surprise 50bps cut in policy rate.

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$16 million, to US$15.9 billion as of December 19, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan eyes January Panda Bond debut, 2) Pakistan receives US$700 million from the World Bank for tax reforms, 3) ADB reviews progress on ML-I rail upgradation, and 4) Pakistan, Korea look to boost chemical trade.

Property, Technology, Modaraba, Paper & Board, and Fertilizer were amongst the top performing sectors, while laggards included: Inv. Banks, Woollen, Textile Weaving, Vanaspati, and Leasing

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net buy of US$4.4 million, while Insurance Companies emerged as major sellers with net sell of US$5.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: JVDC, PTC, KOHC, BOP, and MEHT, while laggards included: YOUW, RMPL, UNITY, SSGC, and GADT.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the benchmark index to continue given successful third tranche disbursement under the EFF & RSF, monetary easing environment, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investor sentiment is expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, with the KSE-100 trading at a multiple of 8.0x while offering a dividend yield of 6.5%.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, ILP and INDU.

Wednesday, 24 December 2025

From Superpowers to a Super Syndicate

This writeup discusses a proposition that may appear unconventional but is rooted in long-term observation. After more than a decade of writing on geopolitics in South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, it has become increasingly evident that the traditional concept of regional and global superpowers no longer adequately explains contemporary international politics. Power today is exercised less through overt state rivalry and more through a coordinated, transnational arrangement that may best be described as a Super Syndicate.

This emerging order is not ideological in nature. It is driven by strategic convergence among states possessing advanced intelligence capabilities and sustained by powerful economic interests. The principal beneficiaries include the global military-industrial complex, energy exploration and production companies, major financial institutions, and international shipping networks. These actors provide the financial backbone, while intelligence agencies of aligned states facilitate operational coordination, risk management, and narrative control.

Unlike the bipolar or unipolar systems of the past, the Super Syndicate does not thrive on direct confrontation among its members. Instead, it functions through a tacit division of strategic space. Countries and regions are assigned defined spheres of influence, minimizing direct competition while maximizing collective gain. Conflicts, when they occur, are managed rather than resolved, ensuring continuity rather than closure.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict illustrates this dynamic. While Ukraine has suffered extensive human and infrastructural losses and Europe has faced economic and security disruptions, the broader global system remains intact. Arms manufacturers have recorded unprecedented growth, energy markets have been restructured, and financial systems have adjusted without systemic shock. The conflict persists not because resolution is unattainable, but because prolonged instability serves entrenched interests.

The situation in Gaza further exposes the asymmetries of this order. Israel’s military campaign has continued despite widespread international criticism and humanitarian concern. Yet institutional accountability has remained elusive. This is not merely a failure of diplomacy; it reflects a structural imbalance in which certain actors operate with effective immunity due to their strategic positioning within the broader system.

Iran’s experience offers additional insight. Despite its aspirations for regional influence, Tehran has remained constrained by prolonged economic sanctions. The recent escalation involving Israel revealed a notable regional alignment. Several Middle Eastern states, while publicly maintaining neutrality, actively supported Israel through intelligence cooperation and defensive measures. The episode underscored the limitations faced by states attempting to operate outside the prevailing strategic framework.

For Pakistan and other developing states, these trends carry important implications. Sovereignty in the contemporary international system is increasingly conditional, shaped by economic leverage, intelligence alignment, and narrative positioning rather than formal equality among states. Moral appeals and legal arguments, while important, rarely translate into decisive outcomes without strategic backing.

The conclusion is not conspiratorial but analytical - global power is no longer exercised solely through identifiable superpowers. It is mediated through a coordinated network of state and non-state actors whose interests converge across military, financial, and strategic domains. Recognizing this reality is essential for policymakers, analysts, and scholars seeking to navigate an international order that is less visible, more complex, and increasingly resistant to traditional frameworks of analysis.