کیا امریکہ ایران پربراہ راست حملہ کرے گا یا اسرائیل کو استعمال کرے گا؟

صدرڈونلڈ ٹرمپ کی اس دھمکی کے بعد کہ امریکہ ایران پر براہ راست حملہ کرسکتا ہے اکثرماہرین کا موضوع گفتگو ہے: کیا امریکہ کے لیے یہ مناسب ہے کہ وہ ایران پر براہ راست حملہ کرے یا اسرائیل کو بطور پراکسی استعمال کرے؟

ایران پر براہ راست امریکی حملہ یا اس کے اسرائیل کے ذریعے بالواسطہ حملہ کے نتائج کتنے خوفناک ہوں گےاس کے بارے میں کچھ کہنا ممکن نہیں۔ تاہم زیادہ تر تجزیہ کار اس بات پر متفق ہیں کہ دونوں میں سے کوئی بھی طریقہ استعمال کیا جاۓ نتائج انتہائی خطرناک ہو سکتے ہیں۔

ایران پر براہ راست امریکی حملے کے ممکنا نتائج:

براہ راست حملہ پورے خطے کو جنگ کی لپیٹ میں لے سکتا ہے، جس میں علاقائی اورعالمی طاقتیں بالخصوص روس اورچین شامل ہو سکتی ہیں۔

ایران فوری جوابی کارروائی کے ذریعہ تیل کی سپلائی میں خلل ڈال سکتا ہے جس سے توانائی کی قیمتیں آسمان کو چھو سکتی ہیں۔

ایران کے پاس مضبوط علاقائی پراکسیز (حزب اللہ، حوثی، اور عراق اور شام میں ملیشیا) ہیں جو امریکی مفادات، فوجی اڈوں، سفارت کاروں اور اتحادیوں کو نشانہ بنا سکتی ہیں۔

بذات خود امریکیوں کا ردعمل سخت ہوسکتا ہے۔ یہ بات تو روز روشن  کی طرح عیاں ہے امریکیوں میں جنگ سے نفرت بڑھتی جارہی ہے۔ وہ چاہتے ہیں کی جنگوں پر خرچ ہونے والے اربوں ڈالرامریکیوں کی فلاح و بہبود پر خرچ کیۓ جائیں۔

ماہرین کی وارنگ ہے کہ بغیر کسی اشتعال انگیزی کے ایران پر براہ راست یکطرفہ امریکی حملہ کا قانونی اور سفارتی جواز نہیں بنتا اوریہ بین الاقوامی قوانین کی خلاف ورزی ہوگا اور امریکی ساکھ کو نقصان پہنچاۓ گا۔

اسرائیل کے ذریعے پراکسی حملہ:

ایران پراسرائیل کا پراکسی حملہ امریکہ کو کسی حد تک یہ کہنے کا موقعہ دے گا کہ یہ اسرائیل کا عمل ہے۔ تاہم ہر کوئی جانتا ہے کہ اسرائیل کا کوئی بھی حملہ امریکہ کی اجازت کے بغیر نہیں ہوتا۔ 

اسرائیلی حملہ ایک بڑے علاقائی تنازع کو جنم دے سکتا ہے جس میں لبنان (حزب اللہ)، شام اوریہاں تک کہ عراق بھی شامل ہوسکتے ہیں جوعلاقائی عدم استحکام کا سبب بن سکتا ہے۔

ایرانی ردعمل:

 ایران کے پاس اسرائیل کے شہروں پر میزائلوں اور ڈرون سے حملہ کرنے کی صلاحیت ہے، اسرائیل پرایران کے حملہ کی صورت میں امریکہ کو بہرحال جنگ میں شامل ہونا پڑے گا۔

کچھ امریکی اتحادی، خاص طور پر یورپی ممالک جو پہلے ہی تناؤ کا شکار ہیں اس جنگ میں شمولیت سے انکار کر سکتے ہیں۔

ماہرین کا اب بھی یہ مشورہ ہے کہ امریکہ جنگ کے بجائے ڈپلومیسی کا استعمال کرے، جوہری معاہدوں اورعلاقائی سلامتی پر مذاکرات کرے۔ وقت تو یہ ثابت کرچکا کہ اقتصادی پابندیاں اورحد تو یہ ہے کہ سائبر وارفیئر ایران کی معیشت اور فوجی صلاحیتوں کو نشانہ بنانے میں ناکام رہی ہیں۔

براہ راست یا پراکسی جنگ انتہائی مہنگی اورخطرناک ہوسکتی ہے اس لیۓ امریکہ کے لیۓ لازم ہے کہ امریکہ ایران پر کسی بھی طریقہ سے حملہ کرنے کی غلطی نہ کرے بلکہ خلیجی ریاستوں کے ساتھ بگڑتے ہوۓ تعلقات کوسنوارے اورایران کے ساتھ تعلقات کو بہتر بناۓ۔ 

United States getting ready to attack Iran

According to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, United States has reinforced military capability in the Middle East with more warplanes, amid a more than two week old US bombing campaign in Yemen and mounting tensions with Iran.

The Pentagon's brief statement did not specify which aircraft were being deployed or where precisely they were sent.

However, as many as six B-2 bombers have relocated in the past week or so to a US-British military base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.

Experts say that the B-2s, which have stealth technology and are equipped to carry the heaviest US bombs and nuclear weapons, in an ideal position to operate in the Middle East.

"Should Iran or its proxies threaten American personnel and interests in the region, the United States will take decisive action to defend our people," Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement.

The US military's Strategic Command has declined to say how many B-2s have reached Diego Garcia and noted that it does not comment on exercises or operations involving the B-2.

There is already considerable firepower in the Middle East and the US military will soon have two aircraft carriers in the region.

US President Donald Trump threatened Iran on Sundaywith bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.

While B-2 bombers have been employed to strike buried Houthi targets in Yemen, most experts say use of the stealthy bomber is overkill there and the targets aren't buried so deeply.

However, the B-2 is equipped to carry America's most potent bomb, the 30,000 pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator. That is the weapon that experts say could be used to strike Iran's nuclear program.

There are only 20 B-2 bombers in the Air Force's inventory so they are usually used sparingly.

One official told Reuters that the US military was also moving some air defense capabilities from Asia to the Middle East.

 

 

 

US imposes sanctions on entities and individuals from China and UAE

The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on entities and individuals in Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China whom it accused of being part of an Iranian weapons procurement network, as President Donald Trump seeks to ramp up pressure on Tehran.

The US Treasury Department announced sanctions on six entities and two individuals in action taken in coordination with the Department of Justice, accusing them of responsibility for procurement of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components on behalf of a leading manufacturer for Iran's drone program.

"Iran’s proliferation of UAVs and missiles - both to its terrorist proxies in the region and to Russia for its use against Ukraine - continues to threaten civilians, US personnel, and our allies and partners," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

"Treasury will continue to disrupt Iran’s military-industrial complex and its proliferation of UAVs, missiles and conventional weapons that often end up in the hands of destabilizing actors, including terrorist proxies."

Tuesday's action targeted one Iranian-based entity and two people based in Iran, one entity based in China and four UAE-based entities, according to the Treasury statement.

The Treasury said it was the second round of sanctions targeting "Iranian weapons proliferators" since Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, which includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to help prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Trump's February memo, among other things, ordered Bessent to impose "maximum pressure" on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on those violating existing sanctions.

Trump threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.

 

Iranian warning to Donald Trump

A high-ranking commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) warned on Monday that the US forces in the region are sitting in a “glass house” and should avoid “throwing stones at others.”

Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Division, made the remarks on the sidelines of ceremonies to celebrate Eid al-Fitr.

“The Americans have 10 military bases in the region, particularly around Iran and 50,000 troops” are deployed in these based, Hajizadeh said, according to Press TV.

“This means they are sitting in a glass house; and when one sits in a glass house, he does not throw stones at others.”

The top IRGC’s comment come after threats by US President Donald Trump to bomb Iran if it refuses to reach "a new deal" on its nuclear program.

On Sunday, Trump said Iran will be bombed if it does not make a deal with the United States.

“If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” he said in an interview with NBC News. He also threatened to punish Iran with what he called “secondary tariffs.”

In a post on his X account on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Trump’s open threat of “bombing” the country is an affront to global peace and security.

“An open threat of ‘bombing’ by a Head of State against Iran is a shocking – affront ‑ to the very essence of International Peace and Security,” Baghaei wrote.

 

 

Bloodied and Bruised US Markets

According to Bloomberg, Jan-Mar 2025 quarter was full of disappointments due to the plunging indices. While the markets are under pressure, the bigger threat is weakening dollar, making other currencies safe heavens.

The S&P 500 ended the quarter down 4.6%, its worst performance in three years. The Nasdaq 100 posted its worst quarter in nearly three years, down 8.3%, after a pair of warnings last week fanned anxieties about a possible pullback in the hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into data center infrastructure. 

Making matters worse for the United States, the dollar hasn’t been behaving as normal, raising fears that America’s radical policy turns are opening the door for rival currencies to become havens.

Trump’s trade war continues to fuel concern the US economy could stall. Most economists still don’t anticipate America will fall into recession in the next year, but they do say the chance of a contraction has increased.

While many economists have spent the past three years being wrong on recession calls, another worry is the risk that a slowdown in growth will occur alongside accelerating inflation, the dreaded scenario known as stagflation.

Garnering the least support in the Associated Press-NORC poll was Trump’s signature initiative so far—tariffs. Some 60% of Americans disapprove of his trade tactics while 58% disapprove of his handling of the economy in general.

 

 

 

 

Western laws not needed in Afghanistan

According to media reports, the Taliban’s supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, has reiterated that Afghanistan has no need for Western legal systems, asserting that Islamic sharia law is fully in effect.

“There is no need for laws that originate from the West. We will create our own laws,” Akhundzada said during an Eid Al-Fitr sermon at the Eidgah Mosque in Kandahar.

The 50-minute message was shared publicly by Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid on X.

Akhundzada’s remarks reaffirm the stance of the Taliban government. The West alleges that Taliban has significantly rolled back civil liberties — especially for Afghan women and girls — since regaining control of the country in 2021.

Under the group’s interpretation of Islamic law, women have been barred from education, most public sector jobs, and public life.

Despite global condemnation, Akhundzada dismissed any role for democratic governance, stating, “Democracy has come to an end in Afghanistan.”

He accused supporters of democracy of attempting to drive a wedge between the Afghan people and the Taliban.

He also criticized the West, saying non-Muslim countries were aligned in opposition to Islam, referencing the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza as evidence.

While the Taliban face no formal opposition in the country, internal rifts have emerged. Some Taliban officials have pushed for easing restrictive policies and improving relations with the international community to gain economic and political support. However, Akhundzada and his close inner circle have maintained a firm grip on power and policy direction.

In recent months, there has been limited engagement between the Taliban and the administration of US President Donald Trump, largely centered on prisoner releases and humanitarian coordination.

Trump threatens bombing Iran

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran on Sunday with bombing and secondary tariffs if Tehran did not come to an agreement with Washington over its nuclear program.

Western powers accuse Iran of having a clandestine agenda to develop nuclear weapons capability by enriching uranium to a high level of fissile purity, above what they say is justifiable for a civilian atomic energy program. However, Tehran insists its nuclear program is wholly for civilian energy purposes.

In Trump's first remarks since Iran rejected direct negotiations with Washington last week, he told NBC News that US and Iranian officials were talking, but did not elaborate.

"If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing," Trump said in a telephone interview. "It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before."

"There's a chance that if they don't make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago," he added.

Iran sent a response through Oman to a letter from Trump urging Tehran to reach a new nuclear deal, saying its policy was to not engage in direct negotiations with the United States while under its maximum pressure campaign and military threats, Tehran's foreign minister was quoted as saying on Thursday.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated the policy on Sunday. "Direct negotiations with the US have been rejected, but Iran has always been involved in indirect negotiations, and now too, the Supreme Leader has emphasized that indirect negotiations can still continue," he said, referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In the NBC interview, Trump also threatened so-called secondary tariffs, which affect buyers of a country's goods, on both Russia and Iran. He signed an executive order last week authorizing such tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan oil.

Trump did not elaborate on those potential tariffs.

In his first 2017-21 term, Trump withdrew the US from a 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that placed strict limits on Tehran's disputed nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.

Trump also reimposed sweeping US sanctions. It is alleged that since then, the Islamic Republic has far surpassed the agreed limits in its escalating program of uranium enrichment.