Pakistan on a path of implosion

It was what one may safely describe as a ‘memorable’ occasion. Exactly a year ago today, adult-aged Pakistanis from all faiths, cultures, ethnicities, and socioeconomic classes had headed to their assigned polling stations to cast their ballots in a much-delayed general election.

 was remarkable how many expectations they ended up defying that day. One recalls the unannounced blackout of all mobile communication services, enforced by the authorities shortly before polls opened, which had left people without access to vital election-related information and unable to contact their friends and families.

It was not enough to deter the over 59 million citizens’ intent on having their voices heard that day. One also recalls the smug predictions of television pundits and the surveys fed to the media in the run-up to Election Day. None of them prepared the nation for the coup ordinary Pakistanis pulled off merely with the help of a stamp and a ballot paper.

No observer can honestly deny that the last election’s results were highly unexpected.

Considerable effort was made to keep one party out of the race. The party’s leadership was jailed, its workers picked up, its electoral symbol withdrawn, and its candidates, even after being forced to declare themselves independents, not allowed to campaign.

If the previous elections were manipulated — perhaps by the same elements — to bring the PTI to power, they went out of their way to ensure that it did not have any chance this time around.

Despite all their machinations, however, the PTI ended up winning an unexpectedly large chunk of the popular vote.

The results announced two things: one, that Pakistan’s youth had finally arrived on the political scene, and two, that ordinary voters had overwhelmingly rejected the narratives set by the powers of the day. In this sense, the 2024 election was indeed a historic one.

Much went wrong after February 08, 2024, mainly because responsible individuals within the Pakistani state refused to come to terms with the country’s changed realities.

However, though the injustices that followed the last general election cannot be forgotten, it is equally important to start thinking about what must now be done to mitigate their effects.

The country has continued to march on a path of implosion, unable to contain the dissonance created by a conflict between what those controlling the state want and what the people want for themselves. Unless this fundamental conflict is resolved, the country will not be at peace with itself.

A war of egos has been fought between a handfuls of individuals at the cost of the well-being of millions of ordinary Pakistanis. This unnecessary war must be called to an end. The people of Pakistan have been wronged for too long. They need a change.

Dawn Editorial, February 08, 2025

Aman-25 focuses regional cooperation

The picturesque seafront of the Pakistan Navy Dockyard with windsurfers, sailboats and Navy boats painted a beautiful backdrop for the flagpoles from which fluttered the flags of 60 nations participating in the ninth Multinational Maritime Exercise ‘Aman-25’ on Friday morning.

The biennial exercise commenced with a formal flag-hoisting ceremony, followed by the cutting of a cake by senior representatives of the participating navies.

A message from the Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Naveed Ashraf, was read by Commodore Omar Farooq during the ceremony.

The naval chief welcomed the participants and highlighted that the exercise, which began in 2007, has now become a regular biennial feature, bringing together regional and ex­tra-regional navies to foster a secure and conducive maritime environment.

He emphasized the Pakistan Navy’s role as a key stakeholder in the Arabian Sea and its initiatives to enhance regional maritime security, including Regional Maritime Security Patrols.

He further stated that in recognition of the international community’s trust in its efforts to promote peace and stability at sea, Pakistan Navy has introduced the Aman Dialogue this year as an adjunct to the exercise.

Speaking on the occasion, Pakistan Fleet Commander Rear Admiral Abdul Munib underscored the force’s contributions to collaborative maritime security and the exercise’s significance in enhancing interoperability among the participants.

Rear Admiral Munib praised the participating countries for supporting Pakistan’s commitment to peace and maritime security and expressed the hope that the friendships fostered during the exercise would continue and grow.

The ninth edition of the exercise will see the participation of 12 naval ships, some of which have already arrived at the Karachi port while others are on their way.

China, with its Plans Baotou-133 and Plans Gaoyouhu, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with its HMS Jazan and HMS Hail ships, are the nations participating with two vessels each.

The other vessels include UAE’s Abu Dhabi (CVT) P-191, Malaysia’s KD Terengganu-174, Japan’s JS Murasame, Sri Lanka’s SLNS Vijayabahu, Indonesia’s KRI Bung Tomo-357, Iran’s Jamaran, Bangladesh’s BNS Somdura Joy, USA’s Lewis B. Puller and Oman’s RNOV Sadh. Meanwhile, Turkiye is participating with one aircraft.

There are also a number of special operation forces and observers taking part in the inaugural Aman Dialogue scheduled for February 09 to 10.

Bangladesh’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Nazmul Hassan, who arrived with his naval fleet, held meetings with Pakistan’s top military leadership on Friday in another sign of the improved bilateral ties between the two nations.

Admiral Hassan, who will also attend the inaugural Aman Dialogue on maritime security, called on the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, Gen Sahir Shamshad Mirza and Chief of Army Staff Gen Asim Munir.

He also held a bilateral meeting with Admiral Ashraf at the Naval Headquarters in Islamabad.

The meetings focused on the evolving regional security landscape and mutual strategic interests, particularly in maritime collaboration.

Both militaries explored avenues to strengthen defence ties, including joint naval exercises, training programs, and exchange visits.

Adm Hassan’s visit marks the second high-level engagement between the Bangladeshi Armed Forces and Pakistani military leadership in recent months.

On January 14, Lt Gen S.M. Kamrul Hassan, the principal staff officer of Bangladesh’s Armed Forces Division, led a military delegation to Pakistan, where both sides agreed to bolster defence cooperation and collaborate on regional peace efforts.

Observers see these developments as a shift in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations after years of estrangement.

Bangladesh’s participation in Pakistan’s multilateral naval exercise is considered a major step forward in military cooperation.

 

PSX index records 3.4%WoW decline

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) endured bearish sentiments throughout the week due to a lack of imminent triggers. The benchmark index recorded its second-highest correction of the year in percentage terms, losing 3,933 points or 3.4%WoW to close at 110,323 points on Friday, February 07, 2025.

The decline was mainly driven by higher dividend-yielding sectors, including Fertilizer, E&P, and Banks, as stocks prices corrected adjusting their dividend yields in line to rising secondary yields.

Notably, in the last T-Bills auction, cutoff yields increased, taking 12-month yields to 11.59%, as investors reacted to a lower-than-expected policy rate cut and opted to wait for the IMF review.

Trade deficit widened by 18%YoY to US$2.3 billion in January 2025, driven by a 10%YoY rise in imports.

On a positive note, inflation eased to a nine-year low of 2.4%YoY in January.

The Sindh and Baluchistan assemblies passed the agriculture income tax bill during the week, complying another IMF condition ahead of the upcoming review.

President Asif Zardari's visit to China generated positive sentiment, with discussions on CPEC Phase-II continuing to unfold.

Market participation declined, with average daily traded volume falling 13%WoW to 434 million shares, from 498 million shares in the earlier week.

On a positive note foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$46 million to US$11.4 billion as of January 31, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Pakistan and SFD sign US$1.61 billion agreements to boost economic cooperation, 2) FBR faces PKR468 billion shortfall in 7MFY25 revenue collection, 3) sales of POL rise 4%YoY in the first seven months of the current financial year, 4) Cement dispatches increased by 14%YoY in January, and 5) POL price were increased in the last fortnightly review.

Among the various sectors only REIT was a positive performer, while Refinery, Transport, OMC, E&P, and Technology sectors witnessed erosion in value.

Major selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$5.5 million, barring sale of 6.0% stake of PKGS by Enso AB. Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: SAZEW, AICL, NPL, MUGHAL, and INIL, while laggards included: ENGROH, MTL, POL, PTC, and ATLH.

According to AKD Securities, the market outlook remains positive, with the market expected to largely being driven by specific scrips and sectors, following any trigger or corporate results.

The upcoming MSCI review next week could serve as a potential catalyst for market sentiments. Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of Fertilizer companies, higher sustainable RoEs of Banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

 

Kashmir Question

Almost eight decades since Pakistan and India became sovereign states, the Kashmir issue remains unresolved, bedevilling ties between the neighbours, with the people of the disputed region unable to exercise their right to self-determination.

Moreover, since the events of August 2019, India has tightened its grip over the occupied territory, removing the limited rights the held region had under the Indian constitution. Though, the hardline BJP government may think the Kashmir dispute is a thing of the past, the fact is that the territory remains internationally disputed, and no amount of constitutional tinkering and attempts to alter occupied Kashmir’s demography by New Delhi can change this reality.

The BJP government may like the world to think that it has transformed held Kashmir into a proverbial heaven on earth, but the dark reality of the Indian occupation cannot be hidden.

While Pakistan has long been raising the Kashmir issue at international forums, neutral observers, too, have pointed out the Indian state’s excesses in the disputed region.

For example, Human Rights Watch has said that journalists in IHK remain vulnerable to state violence, including physical assault and the threat of “fabricated criminal cases”. It adds that “hundreds of Kashmiris”, including journalists and human rights activists, remained in detention.

On the other hand, Amnesty International has also criticized India’s “arbitrary detentions” and “stringent anti-terror laws” in IHK. It also says that repression in the region has escalated since Article 370 was scrapped in 2019. These descriptions are a mere glimpse of the ugly reality of the occupied region.

The fact is that the only principled and peaceful solution to the Kashmir dispute remains the plebiscite the UN Security Council called for in 1949, after India had taken the Kashmir case to the world body.

Over the decades, no Indian government has taken any serious steps to implement the UN’s resolution, with the result that the Kashmir dispute has become a source of permanent discord in the subcontinent.

However, until there is a long-term solution in light of the aforementioned resolution, an alternative option for peace in Kashmir and the entire subcontinent would be the implementation of the four-point plan hammered out during the Musharraf era.

That scheme envisaged a ‘soft’ LoC, with free movement of people and goods across Kashmir, and eventual demilitarization.

If both sides, particularly India, are serious about peace, reviving this formula could be the starting point for fresh negotiations. The important thing is to continue the dialogue process, on bilateral disputes as well as the Kashmir issue, and move beyond rigid positions.

On Kashmir Solidarity Day today, Pakistan should reaffirm its support for the people of Kashmir. It should also keep the door open for India in case it decides to resolve the Kashmir question through dialogue.

Dawn Editorial of February 05 2025

 

 

Improving Iran-Pakistan bilateral relations

Reportedly, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Pakistan's Deputy Foreign Minister Amina Baloch discussed bilateral ties and regional developments. The meeting took place in Tehran, on the sidelines of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) meeting.

"Under President Pezeshkian's leadership, we aim to elevate our relationship with Pakistan. We recognize its significant role in our foreign policy," Araghchi stated.

He further highlighted the importance of sustained dialogues and interactions at the highest levels to capitalize on shared opportunities while tackling common challenges.

Baloch, reflecting on mutual interests and concerns, emphasized issues such as border security, drug trafficking, and illegal migration.

"Pakistan is committed to advancing the relationship with Iran. We aim for more robust cooperation both bilaterally and regionally to manage these shared challenges," she explained.

The meeting also provided an opportunity for the diplomats to discuss regional developments, including the situation in Afghanistan, Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon.

Iran and Pakistan have historically maintained cordial ties. They share deep cultural and historical links and routinely support each other in international forums. Recent developments have further strengthened this close partnership.

In early 2024, the two countries demonstrated impressive diplomatic resolve by swiftly de-escalating border tensions through dialogue, leading to the inking of important security and military agreements in the ensuing months. Since then, significant efforts have been carried out to combat cross-border terrorism and ensure the security of the Iran-Pakistan border. 

The visit of Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, to Pakistan in early 2025 further solidified the two nations’ commitment to security and military cooperation.

Economic collaboration has also seen positive momentum in recent years, with several huge projects like the Iran-Pakistan (IP) Gas Pipeline underway. 

The visit of the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan in April 2024 marked a new chapter in economic engagements, with agreements signed to elevate bilateral trade to US$10 billion over the next five years.

 

Trump announces to takeover Gaza Strip

President Donald Trump said the United States would take over the war-ravaged Gaza Strip and develop it economically after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere. This announcement shattered decades of US policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

A question arises, how and under what authority the US can take over and occupy Gaza, a coastal strip 25 miles (45 km) long and at most 6 miles (10 km) wide, with a violent history. Successive US administrations, including Trump in his first term, had avoided deploying US troops there.

Trump unveiled his surprise plan, without providing specifics, at a joint press conference on Tuesday with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The announcement followed Trump's proposal earlier on Tuesday for the permanent resettlement of the more than two million Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring countries, calling the enclave - where the first phase of a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage release deal is in effect - a "demolition site."

Trump can expect allies and foes alike to strongly oppose any US takeover of Gaza, and his proposal raises questions whether Saudi Arabia would be willing to join a renewed US-brokered push for a historic normalization of relations with US ally Israel.

The US taking a direct stake in Gaza would run counter to longtime policy in Washington and for much of the international community, which has held that Gaza would be part of a future Palestinian state that includes the occupied West Bank.

"The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too," Trump told reporters. "We'll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site."

"We're going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs, and it'll be something that the entire Middle East can be very proud of," Trump said. "I do see a long-term ownership position and I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East."

Asked who would live there, Trump said it could become a home to "the world's people." Trump touted the narrow strip, where Israel's military assault in response to Hamas' October 07, 2023, cross-border attack has leveled large swaths, as having the potential to be “The Riviera of the Middle East.”

A question arises, how and under what authority the US can take over and occupy Gaza, a coastal strip 25 miles (45 km) long and at most 6 miles (10 km) wide, with a violent history. Successive US administrations, including Trump in his first term, had avoided deploying US troops there.

Several Democratic lawmakers quickly condemned the Republican president's Gaza proposals.

Netanyahu, referred to a few times by Trump by his nickname, “Bibi,” would not be drawn into discussing the proposal in depth other than to praise Trump for trying a new approach.

The Israeli leader, whose military had engaged in more than a year of fierce fighting with Hamas militants in Gaza, said Trump was "thinking outside the box with fresh ideas" and was "showing willingness to puncture conventional thinking."

Netanyahu may have been relieved that Trump, who forged close ties with the Israeli leader during his first term in the White House, did not pressure him publicly to maintain the ceasefire. He faces threats from far-right members of his coalition to topple his government unless he restarts the fighting in Gaza to destroy Iran-backed Hamas.

Some experts have suggested Trump sometimes takes an extreme position internationally to set the parameters for future negotiations. In his first term, Trump at times issued what were seen as over-the-top foreign policy pronouncements, many of which he never implemented.

A UN damage assessment released in January showed that clearing over 50 million tons of rubble left in Gaza in the aftermath of Israel's bombardment could take 21 years and cost up to US$1.2 billion.

 

 

Saudi Arabia: Unwavering stance on Palestine

Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed its unwavering and non-negotiable stance on the establishment of a Palestinian state, emphasizing that its position remains steadfast and is not subject to political bargaining.

In a statement on Wednesday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that the Kingdom's commitment to Palestinian statehood is deeply rooted and unshakable.

"This firm stance was explicitly affirmed by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman during his address at the opening of the first year of the ninth session of the Shoura Council on September 18, 2024. In his speech, the Crown Prince made it clear that Saudi Arabia will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is established, with East Jerusalem as its capital."

The statement further highlighted that the Crown Prince reiterated this position at the Arab-Islamic Summit held in Riyadh on November 11, 2024. During the summit, he emphasized the urgent need to establish a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, end Israeli occupation, and mobilize the international community in support of Palestinian rights. He also called on more nations to recognize Palestine and underscored the significance of securing full United Nations membership for the Palestinian state, as reflected in UN General Assembly resolutions.

Saudi Arabia also firmly rejected any actions that undermine Palestinian rights, including Israeli settlement expansion, land annexation, and any attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians from their homeland.

The Kingdom called on the international community to take decisive action to alleviate the dire humanitarian conditions faced by the Palestinian people, who continue to stand resilient in defense of their land and rights.

The Kingdom reiterated that its stance is not open for negotiation or political bargaining. It stressed that a just and lasting peace cannot be achieved without ensuring the Palestinian people receive their full legitimate rights under international resolutions, a position Saudi Arabia has made clear to both the previous and current U.S. administrations.