Asif Ali Zardari: The Prince of Guile

Asif Ali Zardari, co-chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), has secured his second term as President of Pakistan, defeating Mahmood Khan Achakzai, the candidate backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Sunni Ittehad Council.

In the presidential election, Zardari garnered an overwhelming majority, securing 411 votes, while Achakzai managed to bag 181 votes, only one vote was rejected. To know more about the charismatic as well as mysterious character of Zardari read the details published in Dawn newspaper on February 23, 2024.

Even his rivals acknowledge that Zardari is a deal-maker par excellence. He has been written off and made a comeback so many times that his doubters have simply stopped trying.

You have heard the trope: Asif Ali Zardari is Machiavelli’s Il Principe personified. While that most certainly isn’t an endearment, it is perhaps not much of an insult either. Whether one accepts it or not, Zardari seems to have cracked the code to surviving and succeeding in the swampy wastelands of Pakistani politics. There are very few who can claim to have his guile, and none who can claim his political acumen.

Call it the politics of ‘mufahimat’ (understanding and reconciliation) or the politics of ‘mufadaat’ (interests and advanta­ges), the Zardari brand of deal-making has ensured that his star continues to shine.

“Chaos isn’t a pit,” go the memorable lines from Game of Thrones, one of the most popular TV show of our times. “Chaos is a ladder. Many who try to climb it fail and never get to try again. The fall breaks them.”

“And some are given a chance to climb. They refuse, they cling to the realm or the gods or love. Illusions. Only the ladder is real. The climb is all there is.”

In the chaos of Pakistan’s politics, none has climbed the ladder higher or more successfully than Zardari. He has been thrown off again and again, yet refused to let his falls break him.

He has seized every opportunity to play the game, and won it with an unlikely hand too many times.

The young Zardari was a notorious playboy who often ended up in brawls at Karachi’s casinos. He was known for his then-famous father, Hakim Ali Zardari, who had been elected as an MNA on a PPP ticket to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s first assembly.

The two were said to be close at one time, but fell out at some stage, following which the elder Zardari had exited the PPP. At one time, both father and son supported the anti-Bhutto alliance.

The Zardaris were otherwise regarded as a liberal Sindhi family who ran a successful entertainment business centred around their two cinemas. The son, at one point, had also tried his hand in the construction business, but was not successful.

The family’s name shot to national prominence when, through a common family connection, the Zardari scion’s marriage was arranged with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s daughter and protégé, the late Benazir Bhutto. Benazir was well-loved and internationally known: it was natural for the spotlight to shine on her soon-to-be-husband. On the night of their wedding, the two celebrated with thousands of well-wishers, most of them common folk, at Lyari’s Kakri Ground.

The event seemed as political as it was personal, and it catapulted Zardari onto the national stage.

The very next year, in 1988, Ms Bhutto was elected Pakistan’s first woman prime minister.  Zardari landed in Prime Minister House, and quickly went to work turning around his personal fortunes. It wasn’t long before Ms Bhutto’s first government was mired in scandals of all sha­des and sizes. It was during this time that Zardari earned the title of ‘Mr 10 percent’.

The axe would fall as soon as Ms Bhutto’s government was dismissed. Among the numerous cases filed against Zardari was one involving abduction for extortion. Zardari was accused of abducting a businessman, strapping a bomb to him, and sending him to the bank to withdraw a large sum of money from his account. The case ran in an anti-terrorism court between 1990 and 1993. Nothing ever came of it.

It was during Ms Bhutto’s next government that Zardari finally started being regarded as one of the most powerful men in the country. He got his own office within PM House, and was even made a federal minister. After that government was also dismissed, he was arrested immediately. A slew of new cases were filed against him, and Zardari once again found himself in jail. Once again, he was never convicted.

Zardari’s by then lengthy record and the length of time he had spent behind bars, without ever being convicted, added to his legend. He quickly came to be regarded as a shrewd wheeler-dealer who could get out of the stickiest situations without any fatal consequences.

It was Ms Bhutto’s tragic assassination that proved to be another turning point in Zardari’s fortunes. Though he had deferred to his spouse’s politics during her lifetime, the mantle of the PPP now fell to him.

His shrewd, calculating nature came to his aid, and benefit. Having decided that General Musharraf needed to go, Zardari played a cunning hand, using the army chief at the time to get Musharraf evicted from the presidency. No one at the time realized that Zardari actually wanted the job for himself.

The presidency solidified his grip on power. Although he buried Article 58(2)(b) of the Constitution as president, the PPP government continued to be run from the President House, with key decisions always in Zardari’s hands.

Although that term led to speculation that the PPP would be wiped out from nearly everywhere except Sindh, Zardari had prepared in advance with the 18th Amendment. It allowed him to keep a foot in the corridors of power while plotting his comeback for another time.

In recent years, with rival parties much larger than his own engaged in a long-running death match, Zardari did not take his eyes off the ladder.

After the 2024 elections, he has emerged as a kingmaker yet again. He has also managed to secure the maximum concessions for his own party (and himself), while giving very little to the PML-N in return.

Even his fiercest rivals begrudgingly acknowledge that Zardari is a deal-maker par excellence. He has been written off and made a comeback so many times that his doubters have simply stopped trying.

They say that “the only thing certain in life is death and taxes”; in Pakistan, it might as well be “death, taxes, and Zardari’s political relevance”.

The man has been derided as a Machiavellian leader, a shrewd and cunning politician interested only in self-enrichment. Yet, he is also the first democratically elected president to serve out a five-year tenure, and likely to become the only person to have held that office twice.

 

 

Stock market posts lackluster movement

The week ended on March 08, 2024 started on a positive note, with the index gaining 1% on the opening day. However, as the week progressed, profit taking activities ensued, losing some of the initial gains. Nonetheless, by the week's end, the benchmark index managed to maintain an upward momentum, closing at 65,326 points with a gain of 468 points or 0.7%WoW.

With new Prime Minister taking office and issuing immediate directives focusing on engaging with the IMF and addressing privatization matters set an initial positive impetus. With new setup in place the IMF started rolling out new recommendations and is poised to unveil more with the appointment of the finance minister.

Government’s next major task will be to smoothly navigate the second review of the SBA. IMF’ team is scheduled to visit following the formation of the new cabinet, as SBA program is set to expire in April 2024.

The recent decline in cut-off yields for 3-month papers in last T-bill auction hints volatility, suggesting that some players anticipate a rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on March 18.

Remittances for February totaled US$2.25 billion, up 13%YoY and with trade deficit of US$1.7 billion for the month.

Market participation remained subdued, with the daily traded volume averaging 412 million shares as compared to 418 million shares in the earlier week, down 1.6%WoW.

On the currency front, rupee held its ground against the greenback, closing at PkR279.04/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included; 1) Jul-Jan debt during first seven months of the current financial year rose by 6 percent, 2) SBP injected PKR8 trillion to ease liquidity crunch, 3) Bank deposits surged nearly 21%YoY in February on record-high interest rates and remittances, 4) cement dispatches in February fall 19% to 3.26 million tons, and 5) Textile exports hit US$1.41 billion in February, up 20%YoY.

Sector-wise, Transport, Refinery, and Inv. Banks/ Securities cos. were amongst the top performers, while Tobacco, Modarabas, and Textile weaving were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$6.8 million. Foreigners absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$6.3 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: NRL, DAWH, CNERGY, PAEL and PSX, while the laggards included: SML, FCEPL, PAKT, MEBL and SHFA.

The upcoming MPC meeting will remain in the limelight. With prevailing consensus of the status quo, the market is likely to remain largely unaffected as this expectation is already priced in. However, if there is any surprise cut, it could unlock funds towards debt-heavy cyclical sectors.

The imminent announcement of the federal cabinet in the coming week holds significance, with progress on the IMF's SBA third tranche as a near-term focal point and a potential positive in sight.

Voting inherent right of overseas Pakistanis

Ironically the successive governments in Pakistan have been denying the voting rights to overseas Pakistani. They are considered less patriotic because they bid farewell to their homeland to lead a better life.

This is spreading disinformation because: 1) they were denied better remuneration and 2) the law and order situation has been getting from bad to worse.

Today, I want to let every Pakistani know that overseas Pakistanis are the real saviors. At an average the country has been receiving around US$1.2 billion from the IMF and the amount has to be repaid, as against this overseas Pakistanis have been remitting more than US$24 billion per annum.

According to the latest information released by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) during February 2024 overseas Pakistanis have remitted US$2.2 billion. 

Regretfully the SBP press release highlighted “During February 24, remittances decreased by 6.2%MoM but reluctantly admitted 13%YoY increase.

Their contribution demands highest recognition as they remitted over US$18 billion during the first eight months of the current financial year (FY24).

Remittances inflows during February 24 mainly came from Saudi Arabia (US$539.8 million), United Arab Emirates (US$384.7 million), United Kingdom (US$346.0 million) and United States (US$287.4 million).

Since inflow of every US$ is important for Pakistan, the newly elected government must announce an incentive package for the overseas Pakistani. Top the list item should be giving them voting time. The government has 5 years to put the required infrastructure in place. This can’t be done without changing the mind set of policy planners.  

Cyprus to Gaza corridor to start this weekend

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she expected a maritime aid corridor to start operating between Cyprus and Gaza this weekend, taking desperately-needed aid to besieged Palestinians.

Von der Leyen said a pilot test run of food aid collected by a charity group and supported by the United Arab Emirates could be leaving Cyprus as early as Friday from the port of Larnaca in Cyprus.

"We are launching this Cyprus maritime corridor together, the European Union, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States," Von der Leyen said after a visit to facilities in Cyprus.

"We are now very close to opening this corridor, hopefully this Saturday-Sunday and I'm very glad to see an initial pilot will be launched today," she said alongside Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides.

One aid group, World Central Kitchen (WCK), is currently gathering food supplies in Larnaca for the people of Gaza, with support from the UAE.

Earlier, Prime Minister of Palestine, Mohammed Shtayye, announced that the Palestinian authorities have proposed to organize a maritime humanitarian corridor between Cyprus and the Gaza Strip. 

"We demand that a humanitarian corridor be opened to Gaza and not limited to the Rafah checkpoint. We have proposed to open a maritime humanitarian corridor between Cyprus and the Gaza Strip," Al Hadath TV channel quoted him as saying.

 

 

 

US to build emergency port on Gaza shore

The United States military plans to build an emergency port off the Gaza coast to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza and help alleviate the hunger crisis in the enclave.

“The port can receive large ships carrying food, water medicine, and temporary shelters,” top US officials told reporters.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government welcomed news of the plan, an Israeli official said, while others in the Defense Minster expressed surprise.

US President Joe Biden is expected to announce the initiative during his annual State of the Union speech on his domestic and foreign policy.  

Biden faces pressure to help those in Gaza

It comes as Biden’s re-election campaign for the White House is kicking into full gears and as he is under pressure to do more to help Palestinians in Gaza, particularly in light of United Nations reports of hunger and possible starvation in the enclave.

The Biden administration's decision to jump into hyper gear over humanitarian aid to the enclave was taken as American officials worked with Egypt and Qatar for a hostage deal that would include a six-week pause to the Israel-Hamas war and allow for Palestinians to return to northern Gaza. 

The Biden administration has been blunt in the last week about its frustrations with Israel, charging that the IDF could and should do more to ensure that humanitarian aid is distributed within Gaza, a move that has been complicated by the IDF’s military campaign to destroy Hamas. 

“The aid flowing into Gaza is nowhere near enough and nowhere near fast enough,” US officials told reporters, as they explained that Biden now wanted to take matters into his own hands.

“The President has directed that we look at all options [and] that we do not wait for the Israelis. We are pursuing every channel possible to get assistance into Gaza. So we will do it by air by sea by land however we can get the maximum amount in as possible,” the US officials said.

Pak US relationship a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’

Soon after the results started pouring in following the February 08 general elections in Pakistan, several members of the US Congress, as well as the US State Department, expressed concern over alleged interference in the polls, with the former even calling on President Joe Biden not to recognize the incoming government until a transparent investigation into the allegations. I invite the readers to read a blog posted as back as on May 03, 2022.

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spy plane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

 

Yemen hits Israeli vessel and US warships

The spokesperson for the Sanaa government’s armed forces has announced that Ansarullah has carried out more operations in support of Gaza, targeting an Israeli container ship and US warships.

The latest attacks come as US officials acknowledge the American and British bombardment of Yemen over the past seven weeks has been made difficult due to insufficient US intelligence on Ansarullah’s arsenal and capabilities. 

Earlier, the British security firm Ambrey said a container ship was struck and issued a distress signal. The vessel was identified as a Liberia-flagged, Israeli-affiliated container ship en route to Djibouti. 

“The vessel was listed as operated by the Israeli company ZIM Integrated Shipping Services,” Ambrey added.  

Ansarullah said the targeting of the Israeli container ship occurred alongside the execution of a qualitative operation involving ballistic missiles, drones against several American warships in the Red Sea.

Ansarullah’s military spokesman, Colonel Yahya Saree, noted in a brief statement that Ansarullah’s armed forces struck the Israeli ship MSC SKY in the Arabian Sea using several naval missiles, confirming that the hit was accurate and direct.

In a press release, the Container Group MSC acknowledged one of its vessels has been hit by a missile while sailing in waters off Yemen. 

The Swiss headquartered operator MSC stated on Tuesday that the Israeli container ship will proceed with its voyage to Djibouti for further assessment after being struck by a missile on March 04 near Yemen’s southern region of Aden. 

The statement further read, “The missile caused a small fire that has been extinguished while no crew were injured.”

Saree revealed that the targeting of the Israeli ship came after the execution of what he described as a qualitative operation during which the Yemeni missile force and air force launched a number of ballistic missiles and drones against several American warships in the Red Sea. 

Saree pointed out that these operations show the capability of Ansarullah’s armed forces to target both combat and non-combat ships simultaneously.

He emphasized that the movement’s operations are escalating and ongoing in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el Mandeb strait, with the aim of preventing Israeli navigation or vessels heading to the occupied Palestinian ports until the cessation of Israeli aggression and the lifting of the blockade on the Palestinian people of Gaza.

He affirmed that the Yemeni armed forces will not hesitate to carry out more military operations in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea against all hostile targets in defense of Yemen, and as a confirmation of support for the Palestinian people in Gaza.

Ansarullah reiterated its commitment to ensuring the safe movement of navigation in the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Bab el Mandeb strait for all ships, except Israeli vessels and those heading to the occupied ports, until the cessation of aggression on Gaza. 

Recently, the targets have also included American and British ships and warships due to the US-British aggression on Yemen. 

The Sanaa government has blacklisted the US and Britain as states hostile to Yemen. 

The American and British militaries responded to the Yemeni naval embargo on Israeli navigation in the Red Sea on January 12 by bombing sites across Yemeni provinces that Washington says belong to Ansarullah in a bid to deter the movement from its maritime operations. 

The airstrikes by the US and the UK have continued on a regular basis over the past seven weeks but have failed to deter the Sana’a government from enforcing a ban on Israeli navigation. 

Instead, US and British warships and vessels have found themselves the target of Ansarullah’s range of fire. 

Current and former American officials have told the Financial Times that the US military’s attempts to halt Yemen-based operations in the Red Sea are being strongly hindered by insufficient intelligence about Ansarullah’s arsenal and its full capabilities.

Washington has also been unable to assess the damage caused by its airstrikes on Yemen, according to the paper. 

Ted Singer, a recently retired senior CIA official, told the Financial Times that acquiring on-the-ground intelligence has been more difficult since the U.S. evacuated its embassy in Sanaa in 2015. 

Just days ago, the Ansarullah leader Seyyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, warned the Israeli regime, the US, and Britain of surprises that will begin soon, while emphasizing that Yemenis continue to prevent ships heading to the occupier entity through Bab el Mandeb until the aggression on Gaza stops and the blockade is lifted.

The Sana government's foreign ministry says all Yemeni-based naval operations will come to a halt as soon as a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, and humanitarian aid is allowed into the enclave.