Saudi Arab trying to find path to dialogue with Iran

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said the kingdom was trying to find a path to dialogue with Iran as the best way to resolve differences.

He said a decision by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to focus on their economies and development was a strong signal to Iran and others in the region that there is a pathway beyond traditional arguments and disputes towards joint prosperity.

The Middle East's leading Sunni Muslim and Shi'ite powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran have for years vied for influence in a rivalry that has played out across the region in events such as the conflicts in Yemen and Syria and in Lebanon.

Riyadh and Tehran cut ties in 2016 but officials from the two countries have held five rounds of direct talks hosted by Iraq since last year, the last of which was in April, without achieving any diplomatic breakthroughs.

Gulf Arab states are concerned about Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs and network of regional proxies, but want to contain tensions as they focus on economic priorities.

The Saudi foreign minister, speaking at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, also said there was a need to find a route to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, otherwise global uncertainty would continue.

"This is complex question, but we will have to talk about how we find a pathway to ending the conflict," he said.

Prince Faisal said attention on the Middle East was also needed, citing Syria as well as regional concerns over provocative policies by Israel's new government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu in an alliance with ultra-nationalists.

Netanyahu has pledged to pursue formal Israeli ties with Riyadh to build on normalization pacts signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020 under his leadership.

Gulf powerhouse Saudi Arabia blessed the US-brokered pacts but stopped short of formally recognizing Israel in the absence of a resolution to Palestinian statehood goals.

 

Made in Iran exhibition opens in Karachi

The Director General of the mining and trade industry of Sistan and Baluchistan province, southeast of Iran, considers the holding of an exclusive exhibition of Iran in Pakistan as an effective step for synergy between the business communities of the two countries.

The "Made in Iran" Exhibition is the third largest exhibition event, which was organized focusing on Sistan and Baluchistan province and obtaining the license of the Iran Trade Development Organization and the follow-ups of the Iranian Consulate General in Karachi and the remarkable reception of the Pakistani business community on Monday in this port city.

According to Iran Press News Agency, at the opening ceremony of Iran's exclusive exhibition in Karachi, Iraj Hassanpour, the Director-General of the Mining and Trade Industry who is also the secretary of the committee of the Sistan and Baluchistan border trade organization and non-oil export development council, said, "Holding an Iranian exclusive exhibition is considered an effective step for synergy between the business community of Iran and Pakistan."

He added, "The exhibition was held following the recent move by the Islamic Republic of Iran in removing the ban from the list of goods related to the preferential trade agreement between Tehran and Islamabad."

Hassanpour stated, "About 50 companies with more than 60 booths as vast as over a thousand meters from different provinces of Iran in industrial fields and commercial services, including plastic and polymer materials, food industry, steel industry, copper, power plant and construction services, turbine and textile machinery and construction industry are present."

The increase in exhibition events shows the strong determination of the two neighboring countries so that the current trade balance between Iran and Pakistan can increase from about US$1.8 billion to US$5 billion, because the bilateral trade capacity is estimated to be more than US$14 billion per year.

According to this report, trade development organizations of Iran and Pakistan are going to sign a cooperation agreement on the sidelines of Iran's exclusive exhibition in Karachi.

 

Gold prices inching towards record highs

Gold prices are expected to rise towards record highs, above US$2,000 an ounce in year 2023, albeit with a little turbulence, as the United States slows the pace of rate hikes and eventually stops increasing them, according to industry analysts, reports Reuters.

Spot prices of the precious metal have shot above US$1,900 an ounce, surging by about 18% since early November 2022 as inflationary pressures recede and markets anticipate less aggressive monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve.

Fast-rising interest rates hammered gold prices last year, plunging as low as US$1,613.60 in September 2022 from a high of US$2,069.89 in March 2022 - just shy of a record peak in 2020.

Higher rates lifted returns on bonds, making non-yielding gold less desirable for financial investors, and pushed the greenback to its strongest in 20 years, making US$-priced gold costlier for many buyers.

The weakening greenback and bond yields will become macro tailwinds for the yellow metal, pushing gold above US$2,000/oz in the coming months, said analysts at Bank of America.

With less pressure from the US$ and bonds, investors are likely to buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and economic turbulence, said WisdomTree analyst Nitesh Shah, adding that prices could easily move above US$2,100 an ounce by year-end.

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe place to store wealth. "The risk of central banks overdoing it and pushing their economies into recession is high," said Shah.

Speculators who in November 2022 were betting gold prices would fall have amassed a net long position in COMEX futures of 8.3 million ounces of gold, worth US$16 billion, helping push up prices.

Analysts expect central banks to continue stockpiling gold after buying more metal in the first nine months of 2022 than in any year in half a century, according to the World Gold Council.

Retail demand for gold bars and coins should also remain strong, boosted by a revival of economic growth in China, the biggest consumer market, said analysts at ANZ.

But gold may have gone too far too fast in the short term and needs to correct lower, analysts said.

"Should prices fall from current levels to the US$1,870 to US$1,900 an ounce range, we expect the (upward) trend to reverse," the bank said, adding that if gold falls below US$1,800, it could slip to US$1,730.

 

Pakistan: Falling workers’ remittances

Inward workers’ remittances in Pakistan, an important source of foreign exchange for the country has been witnessing a declining trend in recent months. Inflows declined to US$2.0 billion in December 2022 (down 19%YoY). 

Since the appointment of New Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar on September 28, 2022, who has been very vocal that Pak Rupee (PKR) is undervalued, not only the spread between the interbank and open market rate has increased but it has also given birth to a new rate in the curb market due to short supply of greenback. Since Dar’s appointment, remittances are now down 16%YoY in October-December 2022 quarter to US$6.4 billion.

In FY22, workers’ remittances were reported at US$31 billion which is 8% of GDP one of the highest in the region. Remittances along with exports of US$32 billion in FY22 remained a major source of foreign exchange inflows for Pakistan; this fall in remittances is a key concern.

According to one of Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, the decline in remittances is mainly due to the rising spread between US$ interbank rate and open market/black market rates seen in recent months.

One of the main reasons for US$ shortage is that now exchange companies are required to surrender 100% of inward remittances in interbank market as per latest SBP regulation.

Interbank rate is the official rate banks use for trading with other banks and for import & exports. This is currently hovering around PKR228 against US$ and went as low as Rs240 before Ishaq Dar announced an inquiry against Banks on currency speculation and initiated administrative measures to control official currency rate.

Currencies in the open market with local exchange companies are available only on presentation of travel documents and subject to buying limits.

Due to restriction on exchange companies black market is growing where no documentation is required. US$ is currently available at PKR260 to PKR265 in black market which is up to 20% premium to the interbank rate.     

 

All set for Davos party

There’s a hangover happening in Davos even though the party hasn’t yet started. The World Economic Forum’s annual winter shindig in the Swiss mountain resort, which kicks off on Monday, marks a return for glitzy parties and high-minded debates following a three-year hiatus.

A record number of business leaders are set to make the trip, and the passage of commercial, private and government aircraft through Zurich’s airport suggests overall attendees are at pre-Covid-19 levels. Yet the direction for the future – and those who will lead it – is more clouded than ever.

Corporate and financial chieftains who skipped last May’s low-key Davos gathering are back. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon, a regular at the conference, will be joined by Wall Street leaders including David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman. Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth and BP’s Bernard Looney will represent resurgent oil majors. All in all, the WEF expects to welcome some 2,700 leaders from 130 countries, including 370 public figures.

Yet the apparent return to business as usual only serves to highlight the changes that have taken place since the last full gathering of the Davos elite. The global pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have added more friction to the already creaking globalised world that Davos epitomized.

Meanwhile, the political leaders responsible for shaping the new order are mostly staying at home. US President Joe Biden is not making the trip – unlike his predecessor. Though, a smattering of US Congress members are expected to come they are hardly well-known international figures. China’s most senior representative is Vice-Premier Liu He. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, grappling with a slowing economy and striking public sector workers, is also staying home.

A stroll down the Davos Promenade, the town’s main drag where countries and corporations temporarily take over storefronts, underscores the shift. Poland and Indonesia have a prominent presence, but other national delegations have quieter messages on display. Saudi Arabia has a few conspicuous banners touting NEOM, its futuristic economic zone. The United Arab Emirates is touting tolerance.

The cryptocurrency firms that were at previous gatherings are mostly muted, replaced by companies promoting technologies like the blockchain. The Medical Psychedelics House has been replaced by the India Inclusivity Lounge. Established technology companies like Workday, Salesforce, Cisco, Qualcomm and Meta Platforms dominate the street scene. Perhaps the most striking new tenant is Manchester United, the English Premier League club which is seeking a buyer.

The shift is reflective of a world that has become introspective and less joined-up. As big companies diversify supply chains, governments and regions are competing hard for business. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is dangling subsidies for American manufacturing, encouraging governors like J.B. Pritzker of Illinois to lure investment to their state. The WEF and its founder Klaus Schwab acknowledged some of this by renaming the conference “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”.

Still, those returning to Davos for the first time in three years may feel like the cocktail is a little less potent.

Courtesy: Reuters

Pakistan: Need for Revamping Oil Refineries

Lately, I got an opportunity to participate in a discussion with some young and enthusiastic Chartered Accountants discussing the outlook for crude oil refineries in Pakistan.

They were of the consensus that since local refineries have become obsolete and capable of producing a few products only, it would be prudent to shut these and import the finished products.

Almost all of them were annoyed by production of furnace oil containing high sulfur, especially because now the Government of Pakistan (GoP) has virtually stopped power generation at plants using furnace oil.  

However, they had no clue what to do with the existing facilities, paying off banks, finding employment opportunities for those to be laid off and mobilizing foreign exchange for the import of finished products.

One of the youngsters who was bold and outspoken said, “Our mandate was to study the outlook and not to give suggestions regarding revival of these obsolete refineries”.

The other gentleman said, “Pakistan has to produce environment friendly products and if the local facilities are incapable of producing these products, the country must shutdown inefficient and pollution spreading refineries”.

One of the gentleman hit head of the nail by saying, “The real problem for the poor operating capacity and higher cost of production is production of ‘High Sulfur Furnace Oil’. As the storage tanks are full refineries have no option but to suspend refining activity”.

I presented to them my rationale, which I am sharing with policy planners, activists, to make the existing refineries eco-friendly. My submissions are:

The successive governments have failed in upgrading these refineries, but these are still producing, though fewer products, to meet the indigenous demand. Therefore, efforts should be made to operate these refineries at optimum capacity utilization and export surplus furnace oil. However, there is an urgent need to come up with a prudent “Refinery Policy” to facilitate creation of new refineries based of modern technology.

Along with this, incentives should be provided to ensure up gradation of the existing refineries.

There is no need to shutdown/scrap the existing facilities, which are capable of meeting the existing demand of the large percentage of the existing demand.

To put it on record the aggregate capacity of the exiting refineries, is estimated around 22 million tons, which is sufficient to meet almost 100% of the indigenous demand.

At the best, additional units have to be installed at the refineries to bring down the sulfur content in furnace oil for using it for power generation.

It is also to bring on record that almost all the power plants are have ‘dual fired’ boilers and these is no need to run these plants on gas, particularly on R-LNG.

I invite all by readers to please share their point of view.

Oil prices to hover around US$90 over next five years

Conflict in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, lingering pandemic disruptions, and the slowdown in the business cycle all seem to be combining to make forecasts more uncertain.

Brent oil prices are expected to hover around US$90/barrel over the next five years, according to eighth annual survey of energy market professionals by John Kemp a senior market analyst at Reuters specializing in oil and energy systems.

Forecasts range from US$4 to US$10 per barrel above predictions at the time of the 2022 survey, conducted before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and up by around US$20 compared with the 2020 survey, before the coronavirus pandemic.

In this year's survey, prices are forecast to average US$87 in 2023, down from US$99 realized in 2022, when prices surged following Russia's invasion and sanctions imposed in response by the United States and European Union.

Forecasts for 2023 are tightly clustered, with half of respondents expecting the average price to hover between US$80 and US$95, and more than 90% expecting the average to range between US$70 and US$105.

Prices are expected to continue averaging around US$90 from 2024 to 2027, with a slight downward skew in forecasts later in the period.

Forecast prices are from US$15 to US$20 per barrel above where the futures strip was trading at the time of the survey, a similar premium to the one revealed in last year's survey, but up from a premium of around US$10 before the pandemic.

Understandably, there is more dispersion in forecasts for later years, reflecting greater uncertainty about the evolution of the business cycle and structural changes affecting the industry.

But uncertainty over all time horizons has jumped significantly following the pandemic and continued to increase in the most recent survey.

Both short-term forecasts for 2023-2024 and longer-term forecasts for 2025-2027 are characterized by much higher standard deviations than comparable forecasting horizons before the pandemic.