US Dollar near eight month low

The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy US corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51.

Trading was thin on Thursday, with Australia out for a holiday and some parts of Asia still away for the Lunar New Year.

Downbeat earnings and guidance from US corporates and a string of tech sector layoffs have deepened fears of an economic downturn in the United States, leading investors to pare back expectations on how much longer the Federal Reserve will need to aggressively raise interest rates.

"There are now signs the US economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo.

"With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and US economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the US dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies."

The Fed's policy-setting committee will begin a two-day meeting next week, and markets have priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, a step down from the central bank's 50 bp and 75 bp increases seen last year.

Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bp rate hikes. The ECB is seen most likely to remain hawkish.

Sterling was last 0.12% higher at US$1.2415, while the euro rose 0.05% to US$1.0920, flirting with its nine-month high of US$1.0927 hit on Monday.

"The euro does draw a lot of attention," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. The euro zone "had a favourable winter .... The energy crisis that people were expecting hasn't quite played out yet."

Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar last traded at 1.3393 per dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now.

The Aussie edged 0.06% higher to US$0.7107, after jumping 0.8% on Wednesday following shock data showing Australian inflation had surged to a 33-year high last quarter, bolstering the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates again next month.

The kiwi steadied at US$0.6480, having slumped 0.43% in the previous session after New Zealand's fourth-quarter annual inflation came in below its central bank's forecast.

In Asia, the Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 129.21 per dollar.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers debated the inflation outlook at their January meeting, with some warning that it could take time for wages to rise sustainably, a summary of opinions at their meeting showed on Thursday.

At that meeting, the BOJ kept ultra-low interest rates unchanged but beefed up a monetary policy tool to prevent the 10-year bond yield from breaching its new 0.5% cap. Its decision defied market expectations of further tweaks to monetary policy.

 

Gold prices inching towards record highs

Gold prices are expected to rise towards record highs, above US$2,000 an ounce in year 2023, albeit with a little turbulence, as the United States slows the pace of rate hikes and eventually stops increasing them, according to industry analysts, reports Reuters.

Spot prices of the precious metal have shot above US$1,900 an ounce, surging by about 18% since early November 2022 as inflationary pressures recede and markets anticipate less aggressive monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve.

Fast-rising interest rates hammered gold prices last year, plunging as low as US$1,613.60 in September 2022 from a high of US$2,069.89 in March 2022 - just shy of a record peak in 2020.

Higher rates lifted returns on bonds, making non-yielding gold less desirable for financial investors, and pushed the greenback to its strongest in 20 years, making US$-priced gold costlier for many buyers.

The weakening greenback and bond yields will become macro tailwinds for the yellow metal, pushing gold above US$2,000/oz in the coming months, said analysts at Bank of America.

With less pressure from the US$ and bonds, investors are likely to buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and economic turbulence, said WisdomTree analyst Nitesh Shah, adding that prices could easily move above US$2,100 an ounce by year-end.

Gold is traditionally seen as a safe place to store wealth. "The risk of central banks overdoing it and pushing their economies into recession is high," said Shah.

Speculators who in November 2022 were betting gold prices would fall have amassed a net long position in COMEX futures of 8.3 million ounces of gold, worth US$16 billion, helping push up prices.

Analysts expect central banks to continue stockpiling gold after buying more metal in the first nine months of 2022 than in any year in half a century, according to the World Gold Council.

Retail demand for gold bars and coins should also remain strong, boosted by a revival of economic growth in China, the biggest consumer market, said analysts at ANZ.

But gold may have gone too far too fast in the short term and needs to correct lower, analysts said.

"Should prices fall from current levels to the US$1,870 to US$1,900 an ounce range, we expect the (upward) trend to reverse," the bank said, adding that if gold falls below US$1,800, it could slip to US$1,730.

 

Wall Street Rattled

On Tuesday, April 26, 2022, stocks witnessed a steep decline in technology stocks that deepened Wall Street losses after a brutal start to 2022.

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a loss of 809 points, a decline of 2.4%. Nasdaq composite closed with a loss of 4% and S&P 500 index fell 2.8% by the closing bell

Following a year of stellar gains, all three indices have fallen since the start of the year as investors brace for the continued war in Ukraine, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to cool off price growth to cut into corporate profits. Tech stocks that made up much of the market’s massive gains last year are among the leading forces behind the steady decline across Wall Street.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down more than 21% on the year, falling into a bear market as shares of Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Netflix and Tesla plunge from record highs. All posted significant losses Tuesday, with a 10% drop in Tesla stock leading the index downward.

The S&P is down 13% on the year, beyond what investors consider a correction, and the Dow is down 9.1% since the start of 2022.

All three indices have closed out the past three weeks with losses, reversing a brief comeback derailed by concerns about growing threats to business revenue.

Both the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China have boosted pressure on prices for food, energy, shipping and manufacturing after more than a year of high inflation across the globe.

Deeper supply chain issues pose a major obstacle to the Fed as it attempts to raise interest rates fast enough to reverse inflation but slow enough to keep the strong US economy growing and adding jobs.

Higher interest rates raise borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which can hinder business investment and shrink corporate profit margins. Stocks often fall as the Fed raises interest rates, particularly when investors fear the bank may need to hike quicker than they currently anticipate or higher than investors had expected.

“The Fed is raising rates to get inflation under control. This is painful in the short term, but necessary to lay the foundation for future growth. As always, we just need to ride out the short-term pain to benefit from that future growth,” wrote Brad McMillan, Chief Investment Officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, in a Monday research note.

Some economists and investment experts have become increasingly worried about the US economy falling into a recession this or next year as the Fed fights inflation amid several global obstacles. While there is no one universal definition of a recession, some banks and economists expected three to six months of negative economic growth within the next 12 to 18 months.

“We regard it … as highly likely that the Fed will have to step on the brakes even more firmly, and a deep recession will be needed to bring inflation to heel,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients Tuesday, CNN reported.

Other experts believe recession fears are overhyped given the strength of the US economy and the likelihood that inflation has peaked in the United States. The US added 1.7 million jobs over the first three months of 2022, and consumer spending has been resilient in the face of high price growth, thanks in part to rapid wage growth in low-income fields.

 “In spite of these risks, the metrics suggest that the economy could escape a recession in the near term, with potential for nearly 3% growth this year,” wrote Jeffrey Roach and Lawrence Gillum of investment firm LPL Financial, in a Monday research note.

“On balance, we think the economy is steady enough to handle the current tightening cycle even if the Fed is coming late with its hawkish tones,” they added.

 

Will BoE and US Fed be on the same page?

The US Federal Reserve has made it official that starting later this month, it will reduce their monthly bond purchases by US$15 billion ($10 billion Treasuries, $5 billion mortgage backed securities). By June 2022, the bond buying program should come to an end. 

The Fed explains that pandemic stimulus can start to be unwound as “substantial further progress in the economy has (been) made toward the Committee’s goals since December 2021.” They left interest rates unchanged, which was expected and continued to use the word “transitory” to describe inflation.  

While some investors believed they would drop this language, it did not seem to matter as once the dust settled, USD ended the day virtually unchanged (slightly lower) from its pre-FOMC levels against other the major currencies. Stocks and bond yields ended higher which should benefit JPY crosses.

Looking ahead to Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, economists expect a significant recovery in job growth during the month of October.  A large part of this has to do with the slowdown in September, when non-farm payrolls rose by only 194,000. That number is expected to more than double this week with a consensus forecast of 450,000. 

According to ADP, private sector payroll growth was very strong last month but even though service sector activity hit a record high in October, the shortage of workers drove the employment index lower. As one of the most important leading indicators for non-farm payrolls, this suggests that while more jobs are expected in October, the increase may fall short of the market’s lofty forecast. 

Will BoE hike rate today?

While the countdown to Friday’s NFP report has started, analysts have shifted focus to the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday. In many ways, the BoE rate decision should have a greater impact on GBP than FOMC did on the USD because the UK central bank is close to raising interest rates.

As the second major central bank to reduce asset purchases, the BoE has been leading the pack in unwinding pandemic support and with inflation surging, a small contingent of investors believe they could hike as quickly as Thursday. The market is pricing in a 60% chance of 15bp hike which means a full quarter point move is unlikely. However the central bank has done a smaller adjustment before so we can’t rule out that possibility completely.

BoE Governor Bailey and monetary policy committee member Saunders have suggested that an immediate hike may be needed but other policymakers want to see further improvements in labor market activity or evidence that inflation is less transitory before making the move.

With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raising rates, Bank of Canada announcing ending to Quantitative Easing and the Fed beginning to reduce asset purchases, there is a decent chance for a rate hike by the BoE. It may not be a full quarter point, but it could be 15bp increase. 

The immediate tightening should be wildly positive for the greenback as it is not really anticipated. However, if they forgo a rate hike in November, then a hike in December becomes very likely.

In this scenario, analysts expect no change to be accompanied by hawkish comments which could be initially negative but ultimately positive for GBP. Either way, barring an unexpected surprise analysts see GBP strengthening post BoE announcement, particularly against EUR.