Reuters has done a good job by compiling initial reactions on
Xi Jinping securing a precedent-breaking third leadership term. However,
if my readers find these tweaked, remember that the job was done by a western
news agency.
China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking
third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a new Politburo Standing
Committee stacked with loyalists, cementing his place as the country's most
powerful ruler since Mao Zedong. Following are the initial reactions from
analysts and experts:
ALVIN
TAN, HEAD OF ASIA FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE
“It does look like it’s dominated by Xi’s allies.”
“In terms of policymaking, it does mean that there is likely
to be more deference to Xi Jinping’s own views about how to move the country
and the economy forward... I can imagine that zero-COVID policy is likely more
entrenched and there’s going to be further push on this issue of common
prosperity and the like.”
DREW
THOMPSON, VISITING SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE'S
LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY
"This is a leadership that will be focused on achieving
Xi’s political goals, rather than pursuing their own agendas for what they
think is best for the country. There is only one correct way to govern, and
that is Xi’s way.
"Foreign investors and businesses have desperately
searched for signs that liberals or 'reformers' will play a role in shaping the
economy or bringing back an old economic order that prioritized foreign
investment and liberalization of the economy. It is clear from the outcome of
the 20th Party Congress that national security and the party’s political
security will take precedence over economic growth."
RICHARD
McGREGOR, SENIOR FELLOW FOR EAST ASIA, LOWY INSTITUTE, SYDNEY
"The result was a resounding victory for Xi, more
decisive than many experienced observers had forecast. All of his rivals,
potential and real, have been forced out of the Politburo Standing Committee
and Xi loyalists took their place. The new Politburo is an emphatic statement
of Xi’s dominance over the party.
"I think the congress has drawn a line between the past
and the future in profound ways, both for Chinese domestic politics and the way
in which its influence spills out into the rest of the world.
"Xi has dispensed with the old factional system, such
as it was. He has crushed expectations that he would nurture a successor. He
has ignored the informal age caps on officials serving in top positions."
CHRIS
MILLER, PROFESSOR AT TUFTS UNIVERSITY, MASSACHUSETTS
“The party congress has reaffirmed Xi's decisive role in
ruling the Communist Party, marking a continued shift away from collective
leadership of party elites toward a personalized dictatorship. It also appears
to have confirmed the downgrading of economic growth as a key party goal,
relative to other agenda items such as zero-COVID and the party's political and
ideological control. On tech, the key theme was self-sufficiency in science and
technology, which is to be expected given the increasing decoupling of the US
and Chinese tech sectors.”
GARY
NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ASIA PACIFIC, NATIXIS, HONG KONG
“The new inner circle will extend and heighten the current
policy stance, and generally it seems that most of the newly appointed
officials seem to be Xi’s key allies. So I guess this is also a move of the
further consolidation of power, or maybe in the future, of course, performance
is important, but also loyalty is increasingly a key concern when picking
officials.”
JA IAN
CHONG, POLITICAL SCIENTIST, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE
"It certainly seems to be a consolidation of Xi’s
position. This means that policies will be more directly attached to Xi for
good or ill. I guess that translates to more focus on party-state control over
business, less dependence on imports even as the PRC (People's Republic of
China) seeks to export. So probably more direct party-state direction of the
economy. Investment will likely seek to meet those above goals, especially if
they can bring in technology. So while there may be opportunities for
investors, they have to look to both market forces and political preferences
more. So more of what we have already been seeing.
"Probably no lifting of COVID-zero policy in the near
future, and more assertiveness in foreign and security. Even more broadly, US-PRC
friction will continue to grow."
DYLAN
LOH, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
"It's quite clear that the Politburo have been stacked
with Xi loyalists and that would mean he has a much freer rein and mandate in
pursuing his domestic and foreign policies as collective leadership and
decision making has been de-emphasized over coalescing around Xi and
implementing his decisions. It seems that he has not elevated a potential
successor for now, which gives him the flexibility for a fourth term. Regarding
investment, I do not think China's policies will turn sharply because of this
line up, I think by and large Xi's priorities have not changed."
"Wang Huning’s presence also indicates to me that the
ideological bent of the party and Xi will continue and even deepen."
PEIQIAN
LIU, CHINA ECONOMIST, NATWEST MARKETS, SINGAPORE
“It’s kind of in line and a surprise. What has been in line
with expectations is really (that) President Xi is consolidating his power...
And what’s been surprising is that there have been four people sort of retired
from the Standing Committee – that’s more than our initial expectation of two.”
“It
does look like Xi is having more say within the Politburo Standing Committee,
and also with his ideology being written in the party’s charter, that’s a symbolization
of him being more strategically important within the political committee.”
