Trump and Netanyahu Have Made Iran a Regional Superpower

The greatest irony of the US-Israel military campaign against Iran is that it appears to have produced results opposite to those publicly declared by Washington and Tel Aviv. While Iran has undoubtedly suffered significant human, economic and infrastructure losses, the conflict has also demonstrated an uncomfortable reality - overwhelming military superiority does not always translate into strategic success.

The campaign, which began on February 28, 2026, was widely seen as an effort to weaken Iran's military capabilities, curtail its regional influence and force political concessions. Yet Iran has neither capitulated nor abandoned its strategic objectives. Instead, it has displayed remarkable resilience despite living under US sanctions for nearly half a century. History shows that nations subjected to prolonged external pressure often emerge more self-reliant, strategically patient and politically determined.

Perhaps the most significant consequence of the conflict has been the transformation of regional perceptions. Iran is increasingly viewed not merely as a country capable of surviving sustained military pressure, but as a state able to impose meaningful costs on two of the world's most powerful military forces. Whether one agrees with Tehran's policies or not, that perception alone strengthens its deterrence and elevates its regional standing.

The conflict has also prompted difficult questions about the United States' role in the Middle East. For decades, several regional governments relied on Washington as the ultimate guarantor of their security. Today, many are reassessing the costs and risks of that dependence. If confrontation with Iran places neighbouring states directly in harm's way, outsourcing national security no longer appears as reassuring as it once did.

Arab capitals also face an unavoidable geographical reality. Iran may lack the capability to strike the US mainland directly, but it possesses the means to target American military installations and strategic assets across the Gulf. Even without launching such attacks, the possibility alone has heightened concerns among governments hosting US forces and critical energy infrastructure.

Adding another layer of complexity are reports that Israel has offered to accommodate additional US military deployments on its territory. Whether viewed as strategic cooperation or military consolidation, such developments reinforce the perception that the regional security architecture is becoming increasingly polarized. Some Arab policymakers may also fear that refusing to align with initiatives such as the Abraham Accords could expose them to greater political and military pressure.

The broader geopolitical implications may prove even more consequential. If the United States gradually reduces its military footprint in the Arabian Peninsula, the resulting strategic vacuum is unlikely to remain unfilled. China and Russia have steadily expanded their diplomatic, economic and security engagement across the region and would be well positioned to deepen their influence as regional states diversify their strategic partnerships.

Ironically, a campaign intended to isolate and weaken Iran may instead be remembered for strengthening its regional position. Military conflicts often reshape perceptions more profoundly than they alter borders. In that respect, history may ultimately record that Trump and Netanyahu achieved the opposite of their declared objectives by helping transform Iran into a more influential and formidable regional power.