Time for Riyadh to Reassess Its Security Doctrine

For decades, Arab states have been persuaded that Iran poses the greatest threat to their security. Yet the region is arguably less secure today than at any time in recent history. This paradox deserves serious reflection, particularly in Riyadh.

The "Iran threat" narrative has shaped the Middle East's security architecture for more than four decades. Whether entirely justified or deliberately amplified, it has undeniably served several strategic objectives. It reinforced Arab-Iranian hostility, justified a sustained American military presence across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), generated hundreds of billions of dollars in arms sales, and strengthened Washington's political leverage in the region. It also created an environment that facilitated the Abraham Accords, while discussions on US support for Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear program have, at various stages, been linked to broader regional political considerations, including normalization with Israel.

Despite these arrangements, the Gulf today faces growing uncertainty. The Gaza war, the prolonged confrontation involving Iran and Israel, recurring tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and instability around the Red Sea have exposed the vulnerability of the region's energy infrastructure and maritime trade routes. Some regional observers argue that these developments risk undermining the Gulf's position as the world's most dependable energy supplier, regardless of who initiates each crisis.

These realities call for a strategic reassessment. Security partnerships should ultimately be judged not by their longevity, but by their ability to deliver peace, stability and economic security.

The China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrated that diplomacy remains a credible alternative to perpetual confrontation. While the agreement did not eliminate longstanding differences, it showed that dialogue can reduce tensions more effectively than escalating military rivalry. Rather than relying exclusively on traditional security partners, Riyadh could broaden its strategic options by deepening cooperation with Beijing, including in the peaceful development of civilian nuclear technology. Given China's substantial economic interests in Gulf stability and its constructive relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, Beijing is well placed to facilitate confidence-building measures and encourage regional de-escalation.

Equally important, GCC states should gradually reduce excessive dependence on external military protection and work toward a regional security framework based on dialogue, mutual respect and shared responsibility. Foreign military partnerships may continue to play an important role, but they should complement—not define—the region's long-term security strategy.

History suggests that lasting peace cannot be achieved through military superiority alone. Sustainable security is built on diplomacy, balanced partnerships and regional ownership of regional challenges. For Saudi Arabia, the question is no longer whether its traditional security doctrine has served the Kingdom well. The more important question is whether that doctrine remains the best guarantee of peace and prosperity in an increasingly multipolar Middle East.