The
"Iran threat" narrative has shaped the Middle East's security
architecture for more than four decades. Whether entirely justified or
deliberately amplified, it has undeniably served several strategic objectives.
It reinforced Arab-Iranian hostility, justified a sustained American military
presence across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), generated hundreds of
billions of dollars in arms sales, and strengthened Washington's political
leverage in the region. It also created an environment that facilitated the Abraham
Accords, while discussions on US support for Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear
program have, at various stages, been linked to broader regional political
considerations, including normalization with Israel.
Despite
these arrangements, the Gulf today faces growing uncertainty. The Gaza war, the
prolonged confrontation involving Iran and Israel, recurring tensions in the
Strait of Hormuz, and instability around the Red Sea have exposed the
vulnerability of the region's energy infrastructure and maritime trade routes.
Some regional observers argue that these developments risk undermining the
Gulf's position as the world's most dependable energy supplier, regardless of
who initiates each crisis.
These
realities call for a strategic reassessment. Security partnerships should
ultimately be judged not by their longevity, but by their ability to deliver
peace, stability and economic security.
The
China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran demonstrated that
diplomacy remains a credible alternative to perpetual confrontation. While the
agreement did not eliminate longstanding differences, it showed that dialogue
can reduce tensions more effectively than escalating military rivalry. Rather
than relying exclusively on traditional security partners, Riyadh could broaden
its strategic options by deepening cooperation with Beijing, including in the
peaceful development of civilian nuclear technology. Given China's substantial
economic interests in Gulf stability and its constructive relations with both Saudi
Arabia and Iran, Beijing is well placed to facilitate confidence-building
measures and encourage regional de-escalation.
Equally
important, GCC states should gradually reduce excessive dependence on external
military protection and work toward a regional security framework based on
dialogue, mutual respect and shared responsibility. Foreign military
partnerships may continue to play an important role, but they should
complement—not define—the region's long-term security strategy.
History
suggests that lasting peace cannot be achieved through military superiority
alone. Sustainable security is built on diplomacy, balanced partnerships and
regional ownership of regional challenges. For Saudi Arabia, the question is no
longer whether its traditional security doctrine has served the Kingdom well.
The more important question is whether that doctrine remains the best guarantee
of peace and prosperity in an increasingly multipolar Middle East.
